Understanding and predicting frost-induced tropical tree mortality patterns.

Extreme climatic and weather events are increasing in frequency and intensity across the world causing episodes of widespread tree mortality in many forested ecosystems. However, we have a limited understanding about which local factors influence tree mortality patterns, restricting our ability to predict tree mortality, especially within topographically complex tropical landscapes with a matrix of mature and secondary forests. We investigated the effects of two major local factors, topography and forest successional type, on climate-induced tropical tree mortality patterns using an observational and modeling approach. The northernmost Neotropical dry forest endured an unprecedented episode of frost-induced tree mortality after the historic February 2011 cold wave hit northwestern Mexico. In a moderately hilly landscape covering mature and secondary tropical dry forests, we surveyed 454 sites for the presence or absence of frost-induced tree mortality. In addition, across forty-eight 1 ha plots equally split into the two forest types, we examined 6,981 woody plants to estimate a frost-disturbance severity metric using the density of frost-killed trees. Elevation is the main factor modulating frost effects regardless of forest type. Higher occurrence probabilities of frost-induced tree mortality at lowland forests can be explained by the strong influence of elevation on temperature distribution since heavier cold air masses move downhill during advective frosts. Holding elevation constant, the probability of frost-induced tree mortality in mature forests was twice that of secondary forests but severity showed the opposite pattern, suggesting a cautious use of occurrence probabilities of tree mortality to infer severity of climate-driven disturbances. Extreme frost events, in addition to altering forest successional pathways and ecosystem services, likely maintain and could ultimately shift latitudinal and altitudinal range margins of Neotropical dry forests.

Resource partitioning by evergreen and deciduous species in a tropical dry forest.

Niche differentiation can lead to coexistence of plant species by partitioning limiting resources. Light partitioning promotes niche differentiation in tropical humid forests, but it is unclear how niche partitioning occurs in tropical dry forests where both light and soil resources can be limiting. We studied the adult niche of four dominant evergreen (cycad, palm) and drought-deciduous (legume, oak) species co-occurring along environmental gradients. We analyzed light intensity and soil fertility effects on key functional traits related to plant carbon and water economy, how these traits determine species' functional strategies, and how these strategies relate to relative species abundance and spatial patterns. Light intensity was negatively associated with a key trait linked to plant water economy (leaf δ 13 C, a proxy for long-term water-use efficiency-WUE), while soil fertility was negatively associated with a key trait for plant carbon economy (LNC, leaf nitrogen content). Evergreens were highly sclerophyllous and displayed an efficient water economy but poor carbon economy, in agreement with a conservative resource-use strategy (i.e., high WUE but low LNC, photosynthetic rates and stature). Conversely, deciduous species, with an efficient carbon economy but poor water economy, exhibited an exploitative resource-use strategy (i.e., high LNC, photosynthetic rates and stature, but low WUE). Evergreen and deciduous species segregated spatially, particularly at fine-scales, as expected for species with different resource-use strategies. The efficient water economy of evergreens was related to their higher relative abundance, suggesting a functional advantage against drought-deciduous species in water-limited environments within seasonally dry tropical forests.

Improved allometric models to estimate the aboveground biomass of tropical trees.

Terrestrial carbon stock mapping is important for the successful implementation of climate change mitigation policies. Its accuracy depends on the availability of reliable allometric models to infer oven-dry aboveground biomass of trees from census data. The degree of uncertainty associated with previously published pantropical aboveground biomass allometries is large. We analyzed a global database of directly harvested trees at 58 sites, spanning a wide range of climatic conditions and vegetation types (4004 trees ≥ 5 cm trunk diameter). When trunk diameter, total tree height, and wood specific gravity were included in the aboveground biomass model as covariates, a single model was found to hold across tropical vegetation types, with no detectable effect of region or environmental factors. The mean percent bias and variance of this model was only slightly higher than that of locally fitted models. Wood specific gravity was an important predictor of aboveground biomass, especially when including a much broader range of vegetation types than previous studies. The generic tree diameter-height relationship depended linearly on a bioclimatic stress variable E, which compounds indices of temperature variability, precipitation variability, and drought intensity. For cases in which total tree height is unavailable for aboveground biomass estimation, a pantropical model incorporating wood density, trunk diameter, and the variable E outperformed previously published models without height. However, to minimize bias, the development of locally derived diameter-height relationships is advised whenever possible. Both new allometric models should contribute to improve the accuracy of biomass assessment protocols in tropical vegetation types, and to advancing our understanding of architectural and evolutionary constraints on woody plant development.