The Effectiveness of Protection and Surveillance Zones in Detecting Further African Swine Fever Outbreaks in Domestic Pigs-Experience of the Baltic States.

In the event of an outbreak of African swine fever (ASF) in pig farms, the European Union (EU) legislation requires the establishment of a restricted zone, consisting of a protection zone with a radius of at least 3 km and a surveillance zone with a radius of at least 10 km around the outbreak. The main purpose of the restricted zone is to stop the spread of the disease by detecting further outbreaks. We evaluated the effectiveness and necessity of the restricted zone in the Baltic States by looking at how many secondary outbreaks were detected inside and outside the protection and surveillance zones and by what means. Secondary outbreaks are outbreaks with an epidemiological link to a primary outbreak while a primary outbreak is an outbreak that is not epidemiologically linked to any previous outbreak. From 2014 to 2023, a total of 272 outbreaks in domestic pigs were confirmed, where 263 (96.7%) were primary outbreaks and 9 (3.3%) were secondary outbreaks. Eight of the secondary outbreaks were detected by epidemiological enquiry and one by passive surveillance. Epidemiological enquiries are legally required investigations on an outbreak farm to find out when and how the virus entered the farm and to obtain information on contact farms where the ASF virus may have been spread. Of the eight secondary outbreaks detected by epidemiological investigations, six were within the protection zone, one was within the surveillance zone and one outside the restricted zone. Epidemiological investigations were therefore the most effective means of detecting secondary outbreaks, whether inside or outside the restricted zones, while active surveillance was not effective. Active surveillance are legally prescribed activities carried out by the competent authorities in the restricted zones. Furthermore, as ASF is no longer a rare and exotic disease in the EU, it could be listed as a "Category B" disease, which in turn would allow for more flexibility and "tailor-made" control measures, e.g., regarding the size of the restricted zone.

Optimizing Vaccination Strategies against African Swine Fever Using Spatial Data from Wild Boars in Lithuania.

African swine fever (ASF) is one of the most severe suid diseases, impacting the pig industry and wild suid populations. Once an ASF vaccine is available, identifying a sufficient density of vaccination fields will be crucial to achieve eradication success. In 2020-2023, we live-trapped and monitored 27 wild boars in different areas of Lithuania, in which the wild boars were fed at artificial stations. We built a simulation study to estimate the probability of a successful ASF vaccination as a function of different eco-epidemiological factors. The average 32-day home range size across all individuals was 16.2 km2 (SD = 16.9). The wild boars made frequent visits of short durations to the feeding sites rather than long visits interposed by long periods of absence. A feeding site density of 0.5/km2 corresponded to an expected vaccination rate of only 20%. The vaccination probability increased to about 75% when the feeding site density was 1.0/km2. Our results suggest that at least one vaccination field/km2 should be used when planning an ASF vaccination campaign to ensure that everyone in the population has at least 5-10 vaccination sites available inside the home range. Similar studies should be conducted in the other ecological contexts in which ASF is present today or will be present in the future, with the objective being to estimate a context-specific relationship between wild boar movement patterns and an optimal vaccination strategy.

Retrospective analysis of sero-prevalence and bait uptake estimations in foxes after oral rabies vaccination programmes at European level: Lessons learned and paths forward.

Rabies caused by the Classical Rabies Virus (Lyssavirus rabies abbreviated RABV) in the European Union has been close to elimination mainly thanks to Oral Rabies Vaccination (ORV) campaigns targeting wildlife (primarily red foxes). ORV programmes co-financed by the European Commission include a monitoring-component to assess the effectiveness of the ORV campaigns at national level. This assessment is performed by a random collection of red foxes in the vaccinated areas with control of antibodies presence by serological analysis and control of bait uptake by detection of biomarkers (tetracycline incorporated into the baits) in the bones and teeth. ORV programmes aim to a vaccine coverage high enough to immunize (ideally) 70 % of the reservoir population to control the spread of the disease. European Union (EU) programmes that led to almost elimination of rabies on the territory have been traditionally found to have a bait uptake average of 70 % (EU countries; 2010-2020 period) while the seroconversion data showed an average level of 40 % (EU countries; 2010-2020 period). To better understand variations of these indicators, a study was been set up to evaluate the impact of several variables (linked to the vaccination programme itself and linked to environmental conditions) on the bait uptake and the seroconversion rate. Thus, pooling data from several countries provides more powerful statistics and the highest probability of detecting trends. Results of this study advocate the use of a single serological test across the EU since data variation due to the type of test used was higher than variations due to field factors, making the interpretation of monitoring results at EU level challenging. In addition, the results indicates a negative correlation between bait uptake and maximum temperatures reached during ORV campaigns questioning the potential impact of climatic change and associated increase of temperatures on the ORV programmes efficiency. Several hypotheses requesting additional investigation are drawn and discussed in this paper.

Evaluation of SARS-CoV-2 passive surveillance in Lithuanian mink farms, 2020-2021.

The newly emerged SARS-CoV-2, causing COVID-19 in humans, is also infecting American mink (Neovison vison), used in fur production. Since 2020, passive surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 in mink farms was implemented in Lithuania. Here, we describe data from a survey of all 57 active Lithuanian mink farms carried out during November-December 2021 to complement passive surveillance in the country. In all 57 mink farms, nasopharyngeal swab samples were collected from dead or live mink and tested by real-time RT-PCR. Dead mink samples were tested in pools of 5, while live mink samples were tested individually. In 19 mink farms, blood serum was collected and tested for antibodies to determine previous exposure to the virus. Environmental samples from 55 farms were also collected and tested in pooled samples by real-time RT-PCR. The present survey has detected 22.81% viral RNA-positive mink farms and a high number of mink farms that were exposed (84.21, 95% CI 67.81-100%) to the virus. The increasing exposure of mink farms to the virus due to growing human COVID-19 cases and limitations of passive surveillance could explain the observed epidemiological situation of SARS-CoV-2 in Lithuanian mink farms, compared to the few positive farms previously detected by passive surveillance. The unexpected widespread exposure of mink farms to SARS-CoV-2 suggests that passive surveillance is ineffective for early detection of SARS-CoV-2 in mink. Further studies are needed to reveal the present status in previously infected mink farms.

Do Seropositive Wild Boars Pose a Risk for the Spread of African Swine Fever? Analysis of Field Data from Latvia and Lithuania.

In 2020, ASF occurred in wild boars throughout Latvia and Lithuania, and more than 21,500 animals were hunted and tested for the presence of the virus genome and antibodies in the framework of routine disease surveillance. The aim of our study was to re-examine hunted wild boars that tested positive for the antibodies and negative for the virus genome in the blood (n = 244) and to see if the virus genome can still be found in the bone marrow, as an indicator of virus persistence in the animal. Via this approach, we intended to answer the question of whether seropositive animals play a role in the spread of the disease. In total, 2 seropositive animals out of 244 were found to be positive for the ASF virus genome in the bone marrow. The results indicate that seropositive animals, which theoretically could also be virus shedders, can hardly be found in the field and thus do not play an epidemiological role regarding virus perpetuation, at least not in the wild boar populations we studied.

Composting of Wild Boar Carcasses in Lithuania Leads to Inactivation of African Swine Fever Virus in Wintertime.

African swine fever (ASF) continues to spread and persist in the Eurasian wild boar population. The infection pressure resulting from infected carcasses in the environment can be a major contributor to disease persistence and spread. For this reason, it is crucial to find a safe and efficient method of carcass disposal under different circumstances. In the presented study, we investigated open-air composting of carcasses under winter conditions in northeastern Europe, i.e., Lithuania. We can demonstrate that the ASF virus (ASFV) is inactivated in both entire wild boar carcasses and pieces thereof in a time- and temperature-dependent manner. Composting piles reached up to 59.0 °C, and ASFV was shown to be inactivated. However, the ASFV genome was still present until the end of the 112-day sampling period. While further studies are needed to explore potential risk factors (and their mitigation), such as destruction of composting piles by scavengers or harsh weather conditions, composting seems to present a valid method to inactivate the ASFV in wild boar carcasses where rendering or other disposal methods are not feasible. In summary, composting provides a new tool in our toolbox of ASF control in wild boar and can be considered for carcass disposal.

The perceptions of Lithuanian hunters towards African swine fever using a participatory approach.

BACKGROUND: African swine fever (ASF) has been present in Lithuania since 2014. The disease affects mainly the wild boar population. Thus, hunters play a key role in the performance of disease surveillance and control measures. We used participatory methods to gain insight into the knowledge of hunters and to include their perceptions in the design and the implementation of surveillance and control measures to increase their effectiveness. RESULTS: The willingness and the interest of hunters to participate was high, but only eight focus group meetings with 33 hunters could be held due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The overall knowledge of Lithuanian hunters regarding ASF, investigated by semi-structured interviews, was sufficient to understand their part in ASF control and surveillance. However, their knowledge did not necessarily lead to an increased acceptance of some ASF control measures, like the targeted hunting of female wild boar. Participating hunters showed a good understanding of the processes of the surveillance system. Their trust in the performance within this system was highest towards the hunters themselves, thus emphasizing the importance of acknowledging their role in the system. Hunters refused measures including the reduction of hunting activities. They feared a complete elimination of the wild boar population, which in turn demonstrates the necessity to increase professional information exchange. CONCLUSIONS: The perceptions of Lithuanian hunters regarding ASF surveillance and control in wild boar resembled those obtained in neighboring countries. It is imperative to communicate the results with decision-makers, to consider the views of hunters, when designing or adapting measures to control ASF in wild boar and to communicate with hunters on these measures and their justification.

Eight Years of African Swine Fever in the Baltic States: Epidemiological Reflections.

African swine fever (ASF) was first detected in Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia in 2014 and has since been circulating in the Baltic States with a similar epidemiological course characterized by persistence of the disease in the wild boar population and occasional spill-over infections in domestic pigs. The aim of the present study was to evaluate surveillance data on ASF in wild boar from the three countries to improve our understanding of the course of the disease. ASF surveillance and wild boar population data of the countries were analyzed. In all three countries, a decrease in the prevalence of ASF virus-positive wild boar was observed over time. Although somewhat delayed, an increase in the seroprevalence was seen. At the same time, the wild boar population density decreased significantly. Towards the end of the study period, the wild boar population recovered, and the prevalence of ASF virus-positive wild boar increased again, whereas the seroprevalence decreased. The decreasing virus prevalence has obviously led to virus circulation at a very low level. Together with the decreasing wild boar population density, the detection of ASF-infected wild boar and thus ASF control has become increasingly difficult. The course of ASF and its continuous spread clearly demonstrate the necessity to scrutinize current ASF surveillance and control strategies fundamentally and to consider new transdisciplinary approaches.

Epidemiological analyses of African swine fever in the European Union: (September 2020 to August 2021).

This report provides a descriptive analysis of the African swine fever (ASF) Genotype II epidemic in the affected Member States in the EU and two neighbouring countries for the period from 1 September 2020 to 31 August 2021. ASF continued to spread in wild boar in the EU, it entered Germany in September 2020, while Belgium became free from ASF in October 2020. No ASF outbreaks in domestic pigs nor cases in wild boar have been reported in Greece since February 2020. In the Baltic States, overall, there has been a declining trend in proportions of polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-positive samples from wild boar carcasses in the last few years. In the other countries, the proportions of PCR-positive wild boar carcasses remained high, indicating continuing spread of the disease. A systematic literature review revealed that the risk factors most frequently significantly associated with ASF in domestic pigs were pig density, low levels of biosecurity and socio-economic factors. For wild boar, most significant risk factors were related to habitat, socio-economic factors and wild boar management. The effectiveness of different control options in the so-named white zones, areas where wild boar densities have been drastically reduced to avoid further spread of ASF after a new introduction, was assessed with a stochastic model. Important findings were that establishing a white zone is much more challenging when the area of ASF incursion is adjacent to an area where limited control measures are in place. Very stringent wild boar population reduction measures in the white zone are key to success. The white zone needs to be far enough away from the affected core area so that the population can be reduced in time before the disease arrives and the timing of this will depend on the wild boar density and the required population reduction target in the white zone. Finally, establishing a proactive white zone along the demarcation line of an affected area requires higher culling efforts, but has a higher chance of success to stop the spread of the disease than establishing reactive white zones after the disease has already entered in the area.

Targeting the search of African swine fever-infected wild boar carcasses: A tool for early detection.

This study analyses the temporal and spatial distribution of found dead African swine fever (ASF)-positive wild boar carcasses from 2017 to January 2021 in affected European countries: Bulgaria, Estonia, Germany, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Poland, Serbia and Slovakia. During this period, a total of 21,785 cases were confirmed in 19,071 unique locations. The temporal analysis of aggregated cases per month evidenced that most countries located in southern latitudes showed a higher number of cases between January and April, whereas in northern latitudes there was no clear temporal pattern. The space-time K-function evidenced a space-time clustering in the ASF-positive wild boar carcasses, which was most prominent within distances of 2 km and within 1 week. A Bayesian hierarchical spatial model was calibrated to evaluate the association between the probability of finding ASF-positive wild boar carcasses and landscape factors (i.e. the presence of a path and paved road), land use and wild boar abundance. Results showed the highest likelihood of finding ASF-positive wild boar carcasses in areas of transition between woodland and shrub, green urban areas and mixed forests. The presence of a path and a higher abundance of wild boar also increased slightly the odds of finding an ASF-positive dead wild boar. In summary, this paper aims to provide recommendations to design a search strategy to find ASF-infected wild boar carcasses, which is a crucial activity in the management of the disease, not just for surveillance purposes (i.e. the early detection of an introduction and the regular monitoring to understand the epidemiology and dynamics), but also for control, namely the disposal of infected carcasses as a virus source.

African Swine Fever Outbreaks in Lithuanian Domestic Pigs in 2019.

While numerous risk factors of African swine fever (ASF) transmission to domestic pigs have been described, ASF virus introduction has often not been traced back to one single defined cause. The large number of ASF outbreaks that occurred in domestic pigs in Lithuania from 2014 through to 2018 raised the question regarding whether outbreak-specific risk factors and transmission routes could be identified. Therefore, a prospective matched case-control study was designed. Data from 18 outbreaks that occurred in Lithuanian in 2019 and 36 control farms were analyzed. Conditional multivariable logistic regression showed that two or more visits by veterinary inspection of a farm had a significant preventive effect on the occurrence of ASF on a farm (Odds ratio (OR) 14.21, confidence interval (CI) 1.09-185.60 for farms not inspected vs. farms inspected twice or more a year), while certain practices (e.g., mushroom picking, sharing equipment, etc.), which might facilitate the indirect introduction of ASF from fields and forests into piggeries, significantly increased the odds of an outbreak (OR 5.18, CI 1.10-24.44). The results of the study highlight the importance of veterinary inspections for increasing the biosecurity level on pig farms and the awareness of ASF. The knowledge on potential protective and risk factors may help to improve the prevention and control of ASF outbreaks in domestic pig farms in Lithuania and other affected countries.

African Swine Fever and Its Epidemiological Course in Lithuanian Wild Boar.

African swine fever (ASF) has been present in Lithuania since 2014. It is mainly the wild boar population that is affected. Currently, little is known about the epidemiological course of ASF in Lithuania. In the present study, ASF surveillance data from 2016-2021 were analyzed. The numbers of samples taken from hunted wild boar and wild boar found dead per year and month were recorded and the prevalence was estimated for each study month and administrative unit. A Bayesian space-time model was used to calculate the temporal trend of the prevalence estimates. In addition, population data were analyzed on a yearly basis. Most samples were investigated in 2016 and 2017 and originated from hunted animals. Prevalence estimates of ASF virus-positive wild boar decreased from May 2019 onwards. Seroprevalence estimates showed a slight decrease at the same time, but they increased again at the end of the study period. A significant decrease in the population density was observed over time. The results of the study show that ASF is still present in the Lithuanian wild boar population. A joint interdisciplinary effort is needed to identify weaknesses in the control of ASF in Lithuania and to combat the disease more successfully.

What Do Lithuanian Hunters Think of African Swine Fever and Its Control-Perceptions.

After the introduction of African swine fever (ASF) into Lithuania in 2014, continuous spread of the disease resulted in infection of the wild boar populations in most parts of Lithuania. The virus has been moving closer to other Western European countries where pig density is high. An efficient surveillance system detecting ASF cases early in domestic and wild animals is necessary to manage this disease. To make surveillance appropriate and effective, it is critical to understand how key players perceive the implemented control measures. This study investigated the attitudes and beliefs of hunters in Lithuania regarding currently implemented or proposed measures for the control of ASF in the wild boar population. Study data were collected through questionnaires distributed via the internet and by hunting associations in Lithuania. In total, 621 fully completed questionnaires were received and analyzed. All measures interfering with extensive hunting, like ban of driven or individual hunting or ban of supplementary feeding were considered as unacceptable and as ineffective measures to control ASF in wild boar. However, selective hunting of female wild boar was generally considered as an unethical act and therefore rejected. Some measures that seem to have been successful in other countries, like involvement of additional forces, were rejected by Lithuanian hunters, thus implementation of these measures could be difficult. The study highlighted that there is a need for improving important relationships with other stakeholders, since many hunters expressed a lack of trust in governmental institutions and regarded cooperation with them as insufficient. Hunters emphasized that their motivation to support passive surveillance measures could be improved with financial compensation and reduction of workload. The present study provides insights into hunters' perceptions, which may be used as a foundation for additional discussions with these important stakeholders and for adapting measures to improve their acceptance if appropriate.

African swine fever virus survival in buried wild boar carcasses.

Since the first introduction of African swine fever (ASF) into the European wild boar population in 1957, the question of virus survival in carcasses of animals that succumbed to the disease has been discussed. The causative African swine fever virus (ASFV) is known to be very stable in the environment. Thus, carcasses of infected wild boar could play a major role as ASFV reservoir and thereby help to locally maintain and spread the disease in wild boar populations. To minimize this risk, removal of wild boar carcasses in ASF affected areas is regarded to be crucial for effective disease control. If removal is not feasible, carcasses are usually disposed by burial on the spot to avoid direct contact of wild boar to the infection source. In this study, carcasses of ASFV infected wild boar buried in Lithuania at different time points and locations have been excavated and retested for the presence of infectious ASFV by in vitro assays and for viral genome by qPCR. Soil samples potentially contaminated by body fluids have been additionally tested for viral genome. In seventeen out of twenty burial sites, samples of excavated carcasses were positive for ASFV genome. However, in none of the carcass samples ASFV could be isolated. On seven sites soil samples contained ASF viral DNA. These results unexpectedly negate the long-term persistence of infectious ASFV in wild boar carcasses independent from the burial time. In this context, sensitivity of ASFV isolation from carcass samples versus susceptibility of animals and doses needed for oral inoculation has to be further investigated. Furthermore, research is required to consider alternative ASF infection sources and drivers in the infection cycle among wild boar.

The African Swine Fever Epidemic in Wild Boar (Sus scrofa) in Lithuania (2014-2018).

In January 2014 the first case of African swine fever (ASF) in wild boar of the Baltic States was reported from Lithuania. It has been the first occurrence of the disease in Eastern EU member states. Since then, the disease spread further affecting not only the Baltic States and Poland but also south-eastern Europe, the Czech Republic and Belgium. The spreading pattern of ASF with its long-distance spread of several hundreds of kilometers on the one hand and the endemic situation in wild boar on the other is far from being understood. By analyzing data of ASF cases in wild boar along with implemented control measures in Lithuania from 2014-2018 this study aims to contribute to a better understanding of the disease. In brief, despite huge efforts to eradicate ASF, the disease is now endemic in the Lithuanian wild boar population. About 86% of Lithuanian's territory is affected and over 3225 ASF cases in wild boar have been notified since 2014. The ASF epidemic led to a considerable decline in wild boar hunting bags. Intensified hunting might have reduced the wild boar population but this effect cannot be differentiated from the population decline caused by the disease itself. However, for ASF detection sampling of wild boar found dead supported by financial incentives turned out to be one of the most effective tools.

Epidemiological analyses of African swine fever in the European Union (November 2017 until November 2018).

This update on the African swine fever (ASF) outbreaks in the EU demonstrated that out of all tested wild boar found dead, the proportion of positive samples peaked in winter and summer. For domestic pigs only, a summer peak was evident. Despite the existence of several plausible factors that could result in the observed seasonality, there is no evidence to prove causality. Wild boar density was the most influential risk factor for the occurrence of ASF in wild boar. In the vast majority of introductions in domestic pig holdings, direct contact with infected domestic pigs or wild boar was excluded as the route of introduction. The implementation of emergency measures in the wild boar management zones following a focal ASF introduction was evaluated. As a sole control strategy, intensive hunting around the buffer area might not always be sufficient to eradicate ASF. However, the probability of eradication success is increased after adding quick and safe carcass removal. A wider buffer area leads to a higher success probability; however it implies a larger intensive hunting area and the need for more animals to be hunted. If carcass removal and intensive hunting are effectively implemented, fencing is more useful for delineating zones, rather than adding substantially to control efficacy. However, segments of fencing will be particularly useful in those areas where carcass removal or intensive hunting is difficult to implement. It was not possible to demonstrate an effect of natural barriers on ASF spread. Human-mediated translocation may override any effect of natural barriers. Recommendations for ASF control in four different epidemiological scenarios are presented.

African swine fever in wild boar.

The European Commission requested EFSA to compare the reliability of wild boar density estimates across the EU and to provide guidance to improve data collection methods. Currently, the only EU-wide available data are hunting data. Their collection methods should be harmonised to be comparable and to improve predictive models for wild boar density. These models could be validated by more precise density data, collected at local level e.g. by camera trapping. Based on practical and theoretical considerations, it is currently not possible to establish wild boar density thresholds that do not allow sustaining African swine fever (ASF). There are many drivers determining if ASF can be sustained or not, including heterogeneous population structures and human-mediated spread and there are still unknowns on the importance of different transmission modes in the epidemiology. Based on extensive literature reviews and observations from affected Member States, the efficacy of different wild boar population reduction and separation methods is evaluated. Different wild boar management strategies at different stages of the epidemic are suggested. Preventive measures to reduce and stabilise wild boar density, before ASF introduction, will be beneficial both in reducing the probability of exposure of the population to ASF and the efforts needed for potential emergency actions (i.e. less carcass removal) if an ASF incursion were to occur. Passive surveillance is the most effective and efficient method of surveillance for early detection of ASF in free areas. Following focal ASF introduction, the wild boar populations should be kept undisturbed for a short period (e.g. hunting ban on all species, leave crops unharvested to provide food and shelter within the affected area) and drastic reduction of the wild boar population may be performed only ahead of the ASF advance front, in the free populations. Following the decline in the epidemic, as demonstrated through passive surveillance, active population management should be reconsidered.

Epidemiological analyses of African swine fever in the Baltic States and Poland: (Update September 2016-September 2017).

EFSA assisted four countries in the analysis of epidemiological data on African swine fever (ASF), collected until September 2017. The temporal analysis demonstrated that the average proportions of PCR and antibody-ELISA positive samples from the hunted wild boar remained below 3.9 and 6.6, respectively. A peak in the ASF incidence was observed 6 months after the first observed case, followed by a significant reduction of the number of cases and low levels of African swine fever virus (ASFV) circulation at the end of 38 months follow-up period at different spatial resolutions. The spatial analysis concluded that human-mediated spread of ASFV continues to play a critical role in the ASF epidemiology, despite all measures currently taken. 'Wild boar density', 'total road length' (as proxy for human activity) and 'average suitable wild boar habitat availability' were identified as predictors for the occurrence of ASF in Estonia by a Bayesian hierarchical model, whereas 'wild boar density' and 'density of pig farms' were predictors according to a generalised additive model. To evaluate the preventive strategies proposed in EFSA's Scientific Opinion (2015) to stop the spread of ASFV in the wild boar population, a simulation model, building on expert knowledge and literature was used. It was concluded that reduction of wild boar population and carcass removal to stop the spread of ASFV in the wild boar population are more effective when applied preventively in the infected area. Drastic depopulation, targeted hunting of female wild boar and carcass removal solely implemented as measures to control ASF in the wild boar population need to be implemented in a highly effective manner (at or beyond the limit of reported effectivity in wild boar management) to sustainably halt the spread of ASF.

Rabies in the Baltic States: Decoding a Process of Control and Elimination.

Rabies is a fatal zoonosis that still causes nearly 70, 000 human deaths every year. In Europe, the oral rabies vaccination (ORV) of red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) was developed in the late 1970s and has demonstrated its effectiveness in the eradication of the disease in Western and some Central European countries. Following the accession of the three Baltic countries--Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania--to the European Union in 2004, subsequent financial support has allowed the implementation of regular ORV campaigns since 2005-2006. This paper reviews ten years of surveillance efforts and ORV campaigns in these countries resulting in the near eradication of the disease. The various factors that may have influenced the results of vaccination monitoring were assessed using generalized linear models (GLMs) on bait uptake and on herd immunity. As shown in previous studies, juveniles had lower bait uptake level than adults. For the first time, raccoon dogs (Nyctereutes procyonoides) were shown to have significantly lower bait uptake proportion compared with red foxes. This result suggests potentially altered ORV effectiveness in this invasive species compared to the red foxes. An extensive phylogenetic analysis demonstrated that the North-East European (NEE) rabies phylogroup is endemic in all three Baltic countries. Although successive oral vaccination campaigns have substantially reduced the number of detected rabies cases, sporadic detection of the C lineage (European part of Russian phylogroup) underlines the risk of reintroduction via westward spread from bordering countries. Vaccine induced cases were also reported for the first time in non-target species (Martes martes and Meles meles).