Mapping the value for money of precision medicine: a systematic literature review and meta-analysis.

Objective: This study aimed to quantify heterogeneity in the value for money of precision medicine (PM) by application types across contexts and conditions and to quantify sources of heterogeneity to areas of particular promises or concerns as the field of PM moves forward. Methods: A systemic search was performed in Embase, Medline, EconLit, and CRD databases for studies published between 2011 and 2021 on cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) of PM interventions. Based on a willingness-to-pay threshold of one-time GDP per capita of each study country, the net monetary benefit (NMB) of PM was pooled using random-effects meta-analyses. Sources of heterogeneity and study biases were examined using random-effects meta-regressions, jackknife sensitivity analysis, and the biases in economic studies checklist. Results: Among the 275 unique CEAs of PM, publicly sponsored studies found neither genetic testing nor gene therapy cost-effective in general, which was contradictory to studies funded by commercial entities and early stage evaluations. Evidence of PM being cost-effective was concentrated in a genetic test for screening, diagnosis, or as companion diagnostics (pooled NMBs, $48,152, $8,869, $5,693, p < 0.001), in the form of multigene panel testing (pooled NMBs = $31,026, p < 0.001), which only applied to a few disease areas such as cancer and high-income countries. Incremental effectiveness was an essential value driver for varied genetic tests but not gene therapy. Conclusion: Precision medicine's value for money across application types and contexts was difficult to conclude from published studies, which might be subject to systematic bias. The conducting and reporting of CEA of PM should be locally based and standardized for meaningful comparisons.

Group Model Building on causes and interventions for falls in Singapore: insights from a systems thinking approach.

BACKGROUND: Falls in older adults are the result of a complex web of interacting causes, that further results in other physical, emotional, and psychological sequelae. A conceptual framework that represents the reciprocal dynamics of these causal factors can enable clinicians, researchers, and policymakers to clarify goals in falls intervention in older adults. METHODS: A Group Model Building (GMB) exercise was conducted with researchers and clinicians from academic units and public healthcare institutes in Singapore. The aim of the exercise was to produce a shared visual representation of the causal structure for falls and engage in discussions on how current and future falls intervention programmes can address falls in the older adults, especially in the Asian context. It was conducted in four steps: 1) Outlining and prioritising desirable patient outcomes, 2) Conceptual model building, 3) Identifying key intervention elements of effective falls intervention programmes, 4) Mapping of interventions to outcomes. This causal loop diagram (CLD) was then used to generate insights into the current understanding of falls causal relationships, current efforts in falls intervention in Singapore, and used to identify gaps in falls research that could be further advanced in future intervention studies. RESULTS: Four patient outcomes were identified by the group as key in falls intervention: 1) Falls, 2) Injurious falls, 3) Fear of falling, and 4) Restricted mobility and life space. A CLD of the reciprocal relationships between risk factors and these outcomes are represented in four sub-models: 1) Fear of falling, 2) Injuries associated with falls, 3) Caregiver overprotectiveness, 4) Post-traumatic stress disorder and psychological resilience. Through this GMB exercise, the group gained the following insights: (1) Psychological sequelae of falls is an important falls intervention outcome. (2) The effects of family overprotectiveness, psychological resilience, and PTSD in exacerbating the consequences of falls are not well understood. (3) There is a need to develop multi-component falls interventions to address the multitude of falls and falls related sequelae. CONCLUSION: This work illustrates the potential of GMB to promote shared understanding of complex healthcare problems and to provide a roadmap for the development of more effective preventive actions.

Health System Transformation Playbook and Unified Care Model: an integrated design, systems & complexity thinking approach to health system transformation.

Health system transformation is a complex journey that often results in unintended consequences. Existing methods to drive health system transformation have intrinsic limitations which impede successful implementation in local contexts. The Health System Transformation Playbook is a design-, systems-, and complexity-thinking enabled methodology to systematically design, prioritize and test health system and services transformation actions, anchored on iterative story telling, model building and pathfinding processes that tackles the scale of socially and technologically complex adaptive systems through time. The Unified Care Model and its associated cascade of models are examples of ongoing application of Health System Transformation Playbook in a regional population health system in Singapore. Use of Health System Transformation Playbook enables stewards of health systems to gain a more systematic and coherent understanding of health systems and services planning and organization development, to accelerate transformation towards people-centered, integrated and value-driven health systems.

Systems modelling as an approach for eliciting the mechanisms for hip fracture recovery among older adults in a participatory stakeholder engagement setting.

Introduction: Due to an aging population, the rising prevalence and incidence of hip fractures and the associated health and economic burden present a challenge to healthcare systems worldwide. Studies have shown that a complex interplay of physiological, psychological, and social factors often affects the recovery trajectories of older adults with hip fractures, often complicating the recovery process. Methods: This research aims to actively engage stakeholders (including doctors, physiotherapists, hip fracture patients, and caregivers) using the systems modeling methodology of Group Model Building (GMB) to elicit the factors that promote or inhibit hip fracture recovery, incorporating a feedback perspective to inform system-wide interventions. Hip fracture stakeholder engagement was facilitated through the Group Model Building approach in a two-half-day workshop of 25 stakeholders. This approach combined different techniques to develop a comprehensive qualitative whole-system view model of the factors that promote or inhibit hip fracture recovery. Results: A conceptual, qualitative model of the dynamics of hip fracture recovery was developed that draws on stakeholders' personal experiences through a moderated interaction. Stakeholders identified four domains (i.e., expectation formation, rehabilitation, affordability/availability, and resilience building) that play a significant role in the hip fracture recovery journey.. Discussion: The insight that recovery of loss of function due to hip fracture is attributed to (a) the recognition of a gap between pre-fracture physical function and current physical function; and (b) the marshaling of psychological resilience to respond promptly to a physical functional loss via uptake of rehabilitation services is supported by findings and has several policy implications.

Pragmatic multicentre stepped-wedge cluster randomised trial to investigate the effectiveness of community-based falls prevention programme for older adults with falls risk in Singapore: a protocol paper.

INTRODUCTION: Falls are an important public health issue with consequences that include injuries, quality of life reduction and high healthcare costs. Studies show that falls prevention strategies are effective in reducing falls rate among community-dwelling older adults. However, the evaluation for effectiveness was usually done in a controlled setting with homogeneous population, and thus may not be generalisable to a wider population. This study aims to evaluate the impact of community falls prevention programmes with group-based strength and balance exercises, on falls risk and health outcomes for older adults with falls risk in Singapore. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This is a pragmatic closed cohort stepped-wedge cluster randomised trial design study, which involves sequential crossover of clusters from the waitlist control condition to the intervention condition, with the sequence of crossover randomly determined. The intervention will be sequentially rolled out to 12 clusters (a minimum of 5 participants/cluster), over 6 time periods with 8-week intervals in Central and North regions of Singapore. The primary analysis will be conducted under the intention-to-treat principle. A general linear mixed model or generalised estimating equation analysis appropriate for a multilevel longitudinal study incorporating an appropriate error distribution and link function will be used. Markov model will be developed to estimate the incremental cost per quality-adjusted life years and incremental cost per fall prevented from the implementation of falls prevention strategies from a societal perspective. Conditional on there being clinically relevant differences in short-term outcomes, we will implement simulation modelling to project the long-term divergence in trajectories for outcomes and costs using the Markov model. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethics approval has been obtained. Results will be disseminated in publications and other relevant platforms. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT04788251.

Evaluating the Value for Money of Precision Medicine from Early Cycle to Market Access: A Comprehensive Review of Approaches and Challenges.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to perform a comprehensive review of modeling approaches and methodological and policy challenges in the economic evaluation (EE) of precision medicine (PM) across clinical stages. METHODS: First, a systematic review was performed to assess the approaches of EEs in the past 10 years. Next, a targeted review of methodological articles was conducted for methodological and policy challenges in performing EEs of PM. All findings were synthesized into a structured framework that focused on patient population, Intervention, Comparator, Outcome, Time, Equity and ethics, Adaptability and Modeling aspects, named the "PICOTEAM" framework. Finally, a stakeholder consultation was conducted to understand the major determinants of decision making in PM investment. RESULTS: In 39 methodological articles, we identified major challenges to the EE of PM. These challenges include that PM applications involve complex and evolving clinical decision space, that clinical evidence is sparse because of small subgroups and complex pathways in PM settings, a one-time PM application may have lifetime or intergenerational impacts but long-term evidence is often unavailable, and that equity and ethics concerns are exceptional. In 275 EEs of PM, current approaches did not sufficiently capture the value of PM compared with targeted therapies, nor did they differentiate Early EEs from Conventional EEs. Finally, policy makers perceived the budget impact, cost savings, and cost-effectiveness of PM as the most important determinants in decision making. CONCLUSIONS: There is an urgent need to modify existing guidelines or develop a new reference case that fits into the new healthcare paradigm of PM to guide decision making in research and development and market access.

A Causal View of the Role and Potential Limitations of Capitation in Promoting Whole Health System Performance.

For several decades, health systems in developed countries have faced rapidly rising healthcare costs without concomitant improvements in health outcomes. Fee for service (FFS) reimbursement mechanisms (RMs), where health systems are paid based on volume, contribute to this trend. In Singapore, the public health service is trying to curb rising healthcare costs by transitioning from a volume-based RM to a capitated payment for a population within a geographical catchment area. To provide insight into the implications of this transition, we developed a causal loop diagram (CLD) to represent a causal hypothesis of the complex relationship between RM and health system performance. The CLD was developed with input from government policymakers, healthcare institution administrators, and healthcare providers. This work highlights that the causal relationships between government, provider organizations, and physicians involve numerous feedback loops that drive the mix of health services. The CLD clarifies that a FFS RM incentivizes high margin services irrespective of their health benefits. While capitation has the potential to mitigate this reinforcing phenomenon, it is not sufficient to promote service value. This suggests the need to establish robust mechanisms to govern common pool resources while minimizing adverse secondary effects.

Development of a real-world database for asthma and COPD: The SingHealth-Duke-NUS-GSK COPD and Asthma Real-World Evidence (SDG-CARE) collaboration.

PURPOSE: The SingHealth-Duke-GlaxoSmithKline COPD and Asthma Real-world Evidence (SDG-CARE) collaboration was formed to accelerate the use of Singaporean real-world evidence in research and clinical care. A centerpiece of the collaboration was to develop a near real-time database from clinical and operational data sources to inform healthcare decision making and research studies on asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). METHODS: Our multidisciplinary team, including clinicians, epidemiologists, data scientists, medical informaticians and IT engineers, adopted the hybrid waterfall-agile project management methodology to develop the SingHealth COPD and Asthma Data Mart (SCDM). The SCDM was developed within the organizational data warehouse. It pulls and maps data from various information systems using extract, transform and load (ETL) pipelines. Robust user testing and data verification was also performed to ensure that the business requirements were met and that the ETL pipelines were valid. RESULTS: The SCDM includes 199 data elements relevant to asthma and COPD. Data verification was performed and found the SCDM to be reliable. As of December 31, 2019, the SCDM contained 36,407 unique patients with asthma and COPD across the spectrum from primary to tertiary care in our healthcare system. The database updates weekly to add new data of existing patients and to include new patients who fulfil the inclusion criteria. CONCLUSIONS: The SCDM was systematically developed and tested to support the use RWD for clinical and health services research in asthma and COPD. This can serve as a platform to provide research and operational insights to improve the care delivered to our patients.

Negative and positive experiences of caregiving among family caregivers of older blunt trauma patients.

OBJECTIVES: Family caregivers play a fundamental role in the care of the older blunt trauma patient. We aim to identify risk factors for negative and positive experiences of caregiving among family caregivers. DESIGN: Prospective, nationwide, multi-center cohort study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: 110 family caregivers of Singaporeans aged≥55 admitted for unintentional blunt trauma with an Injury Severity Score (ISS) or New Injury Severity Score (NISS)≥10 were assessed for caregiving-related negative (disturbed schedule and poor health, lack of family support, lack of finances) and positive (esteem) experiences using the modified-Caregiver Reaction Assessment (m-CRA) three months post-injury. METHODS: The association between caregiver and patient factors, and the four m-CRA domains were evaluated via linear regression. RESULTS: Caregivers of retired patients and caregivers of functionally dependent patients (post-injury Barthel score <80) reported a worse experience in terms of disturbed schedule and poor health (ß-coefficient 0.42 [95% Confidence Interval 0.10, 0.75], p = .01; 0.77 [0.33, 1.21], p = .001), while male caregivers and caregivers who had more people in the household reported a better experience (-0.39 [-0.73, -0.06], p = .02; -0.16 [-0.25, -0.07], p = .001). Caregivers of male patients, retired patients, and patients living in lower socioeconomic housing were more likely to experience lack of family support (0.28, [0.03, -0.53], p = .03; 0.26, [0.01, 0.52], p = .05; 0.34, [0.05, -0.66], p = .02). In the context of lack of finances, caregivers of male patients and caregivers of functionally dependent patients reported higher financial strain (0.74 [0.31, 1.17], p = .001; 0.84 [0.26, 1.43], p = .01). Finally, caregivers of male patients reported higher caregiver esteem (0.36 [0.15, 0.57], p = .001). CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: Negative and positive experiences of caregiving among caregivers of older blunt trauma patients are associated with pre-injury disability and certain patient and caregiver demographics. These factors should be considered when planning the post-discharge support of older blunt trauma patients.

An Agile Systems Modeling Framework for Bed Resource Planning During COVID-19 Pandemic in Singapore.

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has had a major impact on health systems globally. The sufficiency of hospitals' bed resource is a cornerstone for access to care which can significantly impact the public health outcomes. Objective: We describe the development of a dynamic simulation framework to support agile resource planning during the COVID-19 pandemic in Singapore. Materials and Methods: The study data were derived from the Singapore General Hospital and public domain sources over the period from 1 January 2020 till 31 May 2020 covering the period when the initial outbreak and surge of COVID-19 cases in Singapore happened. The simulation models and its variants take into consideration the dynamic evolution of the pandemic and the rapidly evolving policies and processes in Singapore. Results: The models were calibrated against historical data for the Singapore COVID-19 situation. Several variants of the resource planning model were rapidly developed to adapt to the fast-changing COVID-19 situation in Singapore. Conclusion: The agility in adaptable models and robust collaborative management structure enabled the quick deployment of human and capital resources to sustain the high level of health services delivery during the COVID-19 surge.

Developing integration among stakeholders in the primary care networks of Singapore: a qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: Integrating healthcare services across and between the different health system levels can be achieved in a few ways; however, examining the social side of integration is essential and challenging. This paper explores the concept of integration perceived by general practitioners (GPs) and primary care network (PCN) representatives from the regional health systems (RHS) in a GP-RHS PCN and their perceived partnership success. METHODS: In this study, we explored three GP-RHS PCNs in Singapore. We used a qualitative research design and, overall, performed 17 semi-structured in-depth interviews with GPs (n = 11) and PCN representatives (n = 6) from the RHS. All interviews were audiotaped and transcribed verbatim. We conducted thematic analysis to inductively identify themes from the data. Singer's conceptual model of integration types was used as guiding principles to derive relevant and salient themes for integration. RESULTS: GPs and the RHS perceived the concept of integration through a series of interrelated strategies. Within the normative dimension, a sense of urgency motivated GPs to integrate improvements into their general practice. Participants perceived teamwork and relational climate as appropriate enablers for achieving interpersonal integration in a primary care partnership. While developing a trusted relationship was a perceived success of this partnership across the network, developing camaraderie and gaining knowledge in chronic disease management through the components of functional integration was a perceived success at an individual general practice level. The data also revealed some operational challenges within the structural dimension and some inabilities of the PCN to achieve complete process integration. CONCLUSIONS: Our study points to multi-faceted integration, comprising various forms that need to be manifested at all levels of care to achieve coordinated, seamless, and comprehensive care for patients suffering from chronic conditions. The present iteration of the PCN has been shown to offer integration at a level that warrants praise but still requires structural and process integration improvement.

The associations between caregivers' psychosocial characteristics and caregivers' depressive symptoms in stroke settings: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Studies have found that caregivers can influence stroke survivors' outcomes, such as mortality. It is thus pertinent to identify significant factors associated with caregivers' outcomes. The study objective was to examine the associations between caregivers' psychosocial characteristics and caregivers' depressive symptoms. METHODS: The analysis obtained three-month and one-year post-stroke data from the Singapore Stroke Study, which was collected from hospital settings. Caregivers' depressive symptoms were assessed via the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression instrument. Psychosocial characteristics of caregivers included subjective burden (Zarit Burden Interview), quality of care-relationship (a modified 3-item scale from the University of Southern California Longitudinal Study of Three-Generation Families) and expressive social support (an 8-item scale from Pearlin et al.). Mixed effect Tobit regressions were used to examine the associations between these study variables. RESULTS: A total of 214 caregivers of stroke patients hospitalized were included in the final analysis. Most caregivers were Chinese women with secondary school education, unemployed and married to the patients. Caregivers' subjective burden was positively associated with their depressive symptoms (Partial regression coefficient: 0.18, 95% CI 0.11-0.24). Quality of care-relationship (Partial regression coefficient: - 0.35, 95% CI - 0.63 to - 0.06) and expressive social support (partial regression coefficient: - 0.28, 95% CI - 0.37 to - 0.19) were negatively associated with caregivers' depressive symptoms. Caregivers' depressive symptoms were higher at three-month post-stroke than one-year post-stroke (Partial regression coefficient: - 1.00, 95% CI - 1.80 to - 0.20). CONCLUSION: The study identified subjective burden, quality of care-relationship and expressive social support as significantly associated with caregivers' depressive symptoms. Caregivers' communication skills may also play a role in reducing caregivers' depressive symptoms.

Plasma acylcarnitines as metabolic signatures of declining health-related quality of life measure in community-dwelling older adults: a combined cross-sectional and longitudinal pilot study.

BACKGROUND: Health-related quality of life (HRQoL) measures are predictors of adverse health outcomes in older adults. Studies have demonstrated cross-sectional associations between HRQoL measures and blood-based biochemical markers. Acylcarnitines (ACs) are a class of metabolites generated in the mitochondria and are predictive of multiple geriatric syndromes. Changes in ACs reflect alterations in central carbon metabolic pathways. However, the prospective relationship between plasma acylcarnitines and declining HRQoL has not been examined. This study aimed to investigate both cross-sectional and longitudinal associations of baseline ACs with baseline and declining EuroQol-5 Dimension/ EuroQol Visual Analogue Scale (EQ-5D/ EQ-VAS) in community-dwelling older adults. METHODS: 120 community-dwelling older adults with EQ-5D/ EQ-VAS measurements at baseline and follow-up were included. We quantified ACs at baseline using targeted plasma metabolomics profiling. Multivariate regressions were performed to examine cross-sectional and longitudinal associations between the measures. RESULTS: Cross-sectionally, ACs showed no significant associations with either EQ-5D index or EQ-VAS scores. Longitudinally, multiple baseline short-chain ACs were significantly and inversely associated with declining EQ-5D index score, explaining up to 8.5% of variance in the decline. CONCLUSIONS: Within a cohort of community-dwelling older adults who had high HRQoL at baseline, we showed that short-chain acylcarnitines are independent predictors of declining HRQoL. These findings reveal a novel association between central carbon metabolic pathways and declining HRQoL. Notably, dysregulation in mitochondrial central carbon metabolism could be detected prior to clinically important decline in HRQoL, providing the first evidence of objective biomarkers as novel predictors to monitor HRQoL in non-pharmacological interventions and epidemiology.

Reply to Ngoh et al. Comment on "Surendran et al. The Missed Opportunity of Patient-Centered Medical Homes to Thrive in an Asian Context. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2021, 18, 1817".

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Health Services Use and Functional Recovery Following Blunt Trauma in Older Persons - A National Multicentre Prospective Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVE: Frailty is associated with morbidity and mortality in older injured patients. However, for older blunt-trauma patients, increased frailty may not manifest in longer length of stay at index admission. We hypothesized that owing to time spent in hospital from readmissions, frailty would be associated with less total time at home in the 1-year postinjury period. DESIGN: Prospective, nationwide, multicenter cohort study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: All Singaporean residents aged ≥55 years admitted for blunt trauma with an Injury Severity Score (ISS) or New Injury Severity Score (NISS) ≥10 from March 2016 to July 2018. METHODS: Frailty (by modified Fried criteria) was assessed at index admission, based on questions on preinjury weight loss, slowness, exhaustion, physical activity, and grip strength at the time of recruitment. Low time at home was defined as >14 hospitalized days within 1 year postinjury. The contribution of planned and unplanned readmission to time at home postinjury was explored. Functional trajectory (by Barthel Index) over 1 year was compared by frailty. RESULTS: Of the 218 patients recruited, 125 (57.3%) were male, median age was 72 years, and 48 (22.0%) were frail. On univariate analysis, frailty [relative to nonfrail: odds ratio (OR) 3.45, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.33-8.97, P = .01] was associated with low time at home. On multivariable analysis, after inclusion of age, gender, ISS, intensive care unit admission, and surgery at index admission, frailty (OR 5.21, 95% CI 1.77-15.34, P < .01) remained significantly associated with low time at home in the 1-year postinjury period. Unplanned readmissions were the main reason for frail participants having low time at home. Frail participants had poorer function in the 1-year postinjury period. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: In the year following blunt trauma, frail older patients experience lower time at home compared to patients who were not frail at baseline. Screening for frailty should be considered in all older blunt-trauma patients, with a view to being prioritized for postdischarge support.

Incentives for Uptake of and Adherence to Outpatient Stroke Rehabilitation Services: A 3-Arm Randomized Controlled Trial.

OBJECTIVE: To determine if rehabilitation uptake and adherence can be increased by providing coordinated transportation (increased convenience) and eliminating out-of-pocket costs (reduced expense). DESIGN: Three-arm randomized controlled trial. SETTING: Stroke units of 2 Singapore tertiary hospitals. PARTICIPANTS: Singaporeans or permanent residents 21 years or older who were diagnosed as having stroke and were discharged home with physician's recommendation to continue outpatient rehabilitation (N=266). INTERVENTIONS: A Transportation Incentives arm (T), which provides free transportation services, a Transportation & Sessions Incentives arm (T&S), offering free transportation and prescribed stroke rehabilitation sessions, and a control arm, Education (E), consisting of a stroke rehabilitation educational program. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary study outcome was uptake of outpatient rehabilitation services (ORS) among patients poststroke and key predefined secondary outcomes being number of sessions attended and adherence to prescribed sessions. RESULTS: Uptake rate of ORS was 73.0% for E (confidence interval [CI], 63.8%-82.3%), 81.8% for T (CI, 73.8%-89.8%), and 84.3% for T&S (CI, 76.7%-91.8%). Differences of T and T&S vs E were not statistically significant (P=.22 and P=.10, respectively). However, average number of rehabilitation sessions attended were significantly higher in both intervention arms: 5.50±7.65 for T and 7.51±9.52 for T&S vs 3.26±4.22 for control arm (E) (T vs E: P=.017; T&S vs E: P<.001). Kaplan-Meier analysis indicated that persistence was higher for T&S compared with E (P=.029). CONCLUSIONS: This study has demonstrated a possibility in increasing the uptake of and persistence to stroke ORS with free transportation and sessions. Incentivizing survivors of stroke to take up ORS is a new strategy worthy of further exploration for future policy change in financing ORS or other long-term care services.

Resuming elective surgery after COVID-19: A simulation modelling framework for guiding the phased opening of operating rooms.

OBJECTIVE: To develop a 2-stage discrete events simulation (DES) based framework for the evaluation of elective surgery cancellation strategies and resumption scenarios across multiple operational outcomes. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Study data was derived from the data warehouse and domain knowledge on the operational process of the largest tertiary hospital in Singapore. 34,025 unique cases over 43 operating rooms (ORs) and 18 surgical disciplines performed from 1 January 2019 to 31 May 2020 were extracted for the study. A clustering approach was used in stage 1 of the modelling framework to develop the groups of surgeries that followed distinctive postponement patterns. These clusters were then used as inputs for stage 2 where the DES model was used to evaluate alternative phased resumption strategies considering the outcomes of OR utilization, waiting times to surgeries and the time to clear the backlogs. RESULTS: The tool enabled us to understand the elective postponement patterns during the COVID-19 partial lockdown period, and evaluate the best phased resumption strategy. Differences in the performance measures were evaluated based on 95% confidence intervals. The results indicate that two of the gradual phased resumption strategies provided lower peak OR and bed utilizations but required a longer time to return to BAU levels. Minimum peak bed demands could also be reduced by approximately 14 beds daily with the gradual resumption strategy, whilst the maximum peak bed demands by approximately 8.2 beds. Peak OR utilization could be reduced to 92% for gradual resumption as compared to a minimum peak of 94.2% with the full resumption strategy. CONCLUSIONS: The 2-stage modelling framework coupled with a user-friendly visualization interface were key enablers for understanding the elective surgery postponement patterns during a partial lockdown phase. The DES model enabled the identification and evaluation of optimal phased resumption policies across multiple important operational outcome measures. LAY ABSTRACT: During the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, most healthcare systems suspended their non-urgent elective surgery services. This strategy was undertaken as a means to expand surge capacity, through the preservation of structural resources (such as operating theaters, ICU beds, and ventilators), consumables (such as personal protective equipment and medications), and critical healthcare manpower. As a result, some patients had less-essential surgeries postponed due to the pandemic. As the first wave of the pandemic waned, there was an urgent need to quickly develop optimal strategies for the resumption of these surgeries. We developed a 2-stage discrete events simulation (DES) framework based on 34,025 unique cases over 43 operating rooms (ORs) and 18 surgical disciplines performed from 1 January 2019 to 31 May 2020 captured in the Singapore General Hospital (SGH) enterprise data warehouse. The outcomes evaluated were OR utilization, waiting times to surgeries and time to clear the backlogs. A user-friendly visualization interface was developed to enable decision makers to determine the most promising surgery resumption strategy across these outcomes. Hospitals globally can make use of the modelling framework to adapt to their own surgical systems to evaluate strategies for postponement and resumption of elective surgeries.

Examining the Influence of Social Interactions and Community Resources on Caregivers' Burden in Stroke Settings: A Prospective Cohort Study.

Since the introduction of the integrated care model, understanding how social interactions and community resources can alleviate caregivers' burden is vital to minimizing negative patients' outcomes. This study (n = 214) examined the associations between these factors and caregivers' burden in stroke settings. It used 3-month and 1-year post-stroke data collected from five tertiary hospitals. Subjective and objective caregivers' burdens were measured using Zarit burden interview and Oberst caregiving burden scale respectively. The independent variables examined were quality of care relationship, care management strategies for managing patients' behaviour, family caregiving conflict, formal service usage and assistance to the caregiver. Significant associations were determined using mixed effect modified Poisson regressions. For both types of burden, the scores were slightly higher at 3 months as compared to 1 year. Poorer care-relationship (relative risk: 0.81, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.70-0.94) and adopting positive care management strategies (relative risk: 1.05, 95% CI: 1.02-1.07) were independently associated with a high subjective burden. Providing assistance to caregivers (relative risk: 2.45, 95% CI: 1.72-3.29) and adopting positive care management strategies (relative risk: 1.03, 95% CI: 1.02-1.04) were independently associated with a high objective burden. Adopting positive care management strategies at 3 months had a significant indirect effect (standardised ß: 0.11, 95% CI: 0.01 to 0.20) on high objective burden at one year. Healthcare providers should be aware that excessive care management strategies and assistance from family members may add to caregivers' burden.

Validation and application of a needs-based segmentation tool for cross-country comparisons.

OBJECTIVE: To compare countries' health care needs by segmenting populations into a set of needs-based health states. DATA SOURCES: We used seven waves of the Survey of Health, Aging and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) panel survey data. STUDY DESIGN: We developed the Cross-Country Simple Segmentation Tool (CCSST), a validated clinician-administered instrument for categorizing older individuals by distinct, homogeneous health and related social service needs. Using clinical indicators, self-reported physician diagnosis of chronic disease, and performance-based tests conducted during the survey interview, individuals were assigned to 1-5 global impressions (GI) segments and assessed for having any of the four identifiable complicating factors (CFs). We used Cox proportional hazard models to estimate the risk of mortality by segment. First, we show the segmentation cross-sectionally to assess cross-country differences in the fraction of individuals with different levels of medical needs. Second, we compare the differences in the rate at which individuals transition between those levels and death. DATA COLLECTION/EXTRACTION METHODS: We segmented 270,208 observations (from Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, Israel, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Spain, Sweden, and Switzerland) from 96,396 individuals into GI and CF categories. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The CCSST is a valid tool for segmenting populations into needs-based states, showing Switzerland with the lowest fraction of individuals in high medical needs segments, followed by Denmark and Sweden, and Poland with the highest fraction, followed by Italy and Israel. Comparing hazard ratios of transitioning between health states may help identify country-specific areas for analysis of ecological and cultural risk factors. CONCLUSIONS: The CCSST is an innovative tool for aggregate cross-country comparisons of both health needs and transitions between them. A cross-country comparison gives policy makers an effective means of comparing national health system performance and provides targeted guidance on how to identify strategies for curbing the rise of high-need, high-cost patients.