Evaluation of an engineered vascular graft exhibiting somatic growth in lambs to model repair of absent pulmonary artery branch.

BACKGROUND: Growth is the holy grail of tissue implants in pediatrics. No vascular graft currently in use for surgical repairs of congenital heart defects has somatic growth capacity. METHODS: Biologically-engineered grafts (6 mm) grown from donor ovine fibroblasts in a sacrificial fibrin gel were implanted into the left pulmonary branch of 3-month old lambs for 3, 6, and 18 months. A control group of Propaten® PTFE grafts was implanted for 6 months. RESULTS: The engineered grafts exhibit extensive site-appropriate recellularization after only 3 months and near-normal increase of diameter from the preimplant value of 6 mm to 12.9 mm and also a doubling of length from 6.0 mm to 13.0 mm at 6 months (n = 3) associated with apparent somatic graft growth (collagen content increase of 265% over 18-month, n = 2), along with excellent hemodynamics and no calcification, in contrast to the Propaten® grafts. The left-right flow distribution is nearly 50-50 for the engineered grafts at 6 months (n = 3) compared to about 20-80 for the Propaten® grafts (n = 3), which have less than one-half the diameter, a 6-fold higher pressure gradient, and stunted vascular development downstream of the graft. The engineered grafts exhibit a stable diameter over months 12-18 when the lambs become adult sheep (n = 2). CONCLUSIONS: This study supports the use of these regenerative grafts with somatic growth capacity for clinical trial in patients born with a unilateral absent pulmonary artery branch, and it shows their potential for improving development of the downstream pulmonary vasculature.

Blood vessel implants that are currently used to repair heart defects at birth do not grow with the child. This means that children need to have multiple open heart surgeries to replace implants with larger implants as they grow. We grew implants from a donor sheep's skin cells, and then completely removed the cells from the graft. We then implanted the grafts in 3-month old lambs. The lambs' cells repopulated the implants and the implants increased in size as the lambs grew. Further experiments are required first, but our preliminary findings suggest that using a similar implant in children could improve the quality of life of children with heart defects by avoiding the need for them to have multiple surgeries to replace implants as the child grows.

Pathology of explanted pediatric hearts: An 11-year study. Population characteristics and implications for outcomes.

BACKGROUND: As more pediatric patients become candidates for heart transplantation (HT), understanding pathological predictors of outcome and the accuracy of the pretransplantation evaluation are important to optimize utilization of scarce donor organs and improve outcomes. The authors aimed to investigate explanted heart specimens to identify pathologic predictors that may affect cardiac allograft survival after HT. METHODS: Explanted pediatric hearts obtained over an 11-year period were analyzed to understand the patient demographics, indications for transplant, and the clinical-pathological factors. RESULTS: In this study, 149 explanted hearts, 46% congenital heart defects (CHD), were studied. CHD patients were younger and mean pulmonary artery pressure and resistance were significantly lower than in cardiomyopathy patients. Twenty-one died or underwent retransplantation (14.1%). Survival was significantly higher in the cardiomyopathy group at all follow-up intervals. There were more deaths and the 1-, 5- and 7-year survival was lower in patients ≤10 years of age at HT. Early rejection was significantly higher in CHD patients exposed to homograft tissue, but not late rejection. Mortality/retransplantation rate was significantly higher and allograft survival lower in CHD hearts with excessive fibrosis of one or both ventricles. Anatomic diagnosis at pathologic examination differed from the clinical diagnosis in eight cases. CONCLUSIONS: Survival was better for the cardiomyopathy group and patients >10 years at HT. Prior homograft use was associated with a higher prevalence of early rejection. Ventricular fibrosis (of explant) was a strong predictor of outcome in the CHD group. We presented several pathologic findings in explanted pediatric hearts.

Genome Sequencing is Critical for Forecasting Outcomes following Congenital Cardiac Surgery.

While genome sequencing has transformed medicine by elucidating the genetic underpinnings of both rare and common complex disorders, its utility to predict clinical outcomes remains understudied. Here, we used artificial intelligence (AI) technologies to explore the predictive value of genome sequencing in forecasting clinical outcomes following surgery for congenital heart defects (CHD). We report results for a cohort of 2,253 CHD patients from the Pediatric Cardiac Genomics Consortium with a broad range of complex heart defects, pre- and post-operative clinical variables and exome sequencing. Damaging genotypes in chromatin-modifying and cilia-related genes were associated with an elevated risk of adverse post-operative outcomes, including mortality, cardiac arrest and prolonged mechanical ventilation. The impact of damaging genotypes was further amplified in the context of specific CHD phenotypes, surgical complexity and extra-cardiac anomalies. The absence of a damaging genotype in chromatin-modifying and cilia-related genes was also informative, reducing the risk for adverse postoperative outcomes. Thus, genome sequencing enriches the ability to forecast outcomes following congenital cardiac surgery.

The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Congenital Heart Surgery Database: 2023 Update on Outcomes and Research.

The Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) Congenital Heart Surgery Database (CHSD) continues to be the most comprehensive database of congenital and pediatric cardiothoracic surgical procedures in the world and contains information on 664,210 operations as of June 30, 2023. The 35th harvest of the STS CHSD data was undertaken in Spring 2023, spanning the 4-year period January 1, 2019, through December 31, 2022, and included 144,919 operations performed at 114 participating sites in North America. The harvest analysis was successfully executed by the STS Research and Analytic Center. The overall unadjusted mortality rate was 2.68% and has remained stable over the 4 years included in the current harvest window. Mortality is highest in neonates (7.4%) and lowest in children (1.1%). As in prior analyses, observed mortality and postoperative length of stay in the database increase with an increase in STS-European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery (STAT) Congenital Heart Surgery Mortality Categories. This quality report summarizes contemporary outcomes, provides the odds ratios for the CHSD risk model variables based on this analysis, and describes on-going efforts to improve data collection and augment analytical approaches. Lastly, 5 research publications completed in the last year using data from the CHSD are also summarized.

Association Between Past and Present Operative Mortality in Congenital Heart Surgery: An Analysis of The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Congenital Heart Surgery Database.

BACKGROUND: Mortality after congenital heart surgery is an important metric across benchmarking, quality, and reporting initiatives. All rely on estimates from prior years, and how well these reflect current outcomes is unclear. METHODS: Index operations from The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Congenital Database (2014-2019) were included. Adjusted operative mortality in "past" 4-year and 1-year intervals vs the most recent year ("present") was evaluated using Bayesian hierarchical logistic regression with results presented as odds ratios and 95% credible intervals (CrI). RESULTS: Among 115,699 operations (106 hospitals), overall present observed mortality was 2.5%. Regression to the mean was evident, and individual hospital's present vs past adjusted mortality were only weakly correlated (-0.11 vs past 1-year data, 0.22 vs past 4-year data). A significant relationship was found between past and present mortality only for the group of hospitals in the highest mortality quartile, most prominent for past 4-year data (adjusted odds ratio vs lowest mortality quartile, 2.04; 95% CrI, 1.44-2.80). The proportion of present hospital mortality variation explained by past mortality quartile was 52% (95% CrI, 20%-90%) using past 4-year data and only 27% (95% CrI, 92%-83%) using past 1-year data. Overall 66% of hospitals changed mortality quartiles from past to present (30% by ≥2 quartiles). CONCLUSIONS: Past mortality relates to present primarily for groups of hospitals at the extremes, with past 4-year data more informative than past 1-year data. For individual hospitals, past may differ from present, regression to the mean is common, and many change quartiles. Past mortality should be used thoughtfully and not as the sole factor informing present decision making.

Burden with No Benefit: Prior Authorization in Congenital Cardiology.

Prior authorization is a process that health insurance companies use to determine if a patient's health insurance will cover certain medical treatments, procedures, or medications. Prior authorization requests are common in adult congenital and pediatric cardiology (ACPC) due to need for advanced diagnostics, complex procedures, disease-specific medications, and the heterogeneity of the ACPC population. Prior authorizations in ACPC are rarely denied, but nonetheless, they are often accompanied by significant administrative burden on clinical care teams and delays in patient care. Prior authorizations have been implicated in worsening care inequities. The prior authorization process is insurer specific with differences between commercial and public insurers. Prior authorization rejections were previously found to be more common for women, racial minorities, those with low education, and in low-income groups. Prior authorization unduly burdens routine diagnostics, routine interventional and surgical procedures, and routine cardiac specific medication use in the ACPC population. This manuscript highlights the burdens of prior authorization and advocates for the elimination of prior authorization for ACPC patients.

Growth of the Neo-Aortic Root and Prognosis of Transposition of the Great Arteries.

BACKGROUND: Neo-aortic root dilatation can lead to significant late morbidity after the arterial switch operation (ASO) for dextro-transposition of the great arteries (d-TGA). OBJECTIVES: We sought to examine the growth of the neo-aortic root in d-TGA. METHODS: A single-center, retrospective cohort study of patients who underwent the ASO between July 1, 1981 and September 30, 2022 was performed. Morphology was categorized as dextro-transposition of the great arteries with intact ventricular septum (d-TGA-IVS), dextro-transposition of the great arteries with ventricular septal defect (d-TGA-VSD), and double-outlet right ventricle-transposition of the great arteries type (DORV-TGA). Echocardiographically determined diameters and derived z scores were measured at the annulus, sinus of Valsalva, and sinotubular junction immediately before the ASO and throughout follow-up. Trends in root dimensions over time were assessed using linear mixed-effects models. The association between intrinsic morphology and the composite of moderate-severe aortic regurgitation (AR) and neo-aortic valve or root intervention was evaluated with univariable and multivariable Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: Of 1,359 patients who underwent the ASO, 593 (44%), 666 (49%), and 100 (7%) patients had d-TGA-IVS, d-TGA-VSD, and DORV-TGA, respectively. Each patient underwent a median of 5 echocardiograms (Q1-Q3: 3-10 echocardiograms) over a median follow-up of 8.6 years (range: 0.1-39.3 years). At 30 years, patients with DORV-TGA demonstrated greater annular (P < 0.001), sinus of Valsalva (P = 0.039), and sinotubular junction (P = 0.041) dilatation relative to patients with d-TGA-IVS. On multivariable analysis, intrinsic anatomy, older age at ASO, at least mild AR at baseline, and high-risk root dilatation were associated with moderate-severe AR and neo-aortic valve or root intervention at late follow-up (all P < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Longitudinal surveillance of the neo-aortic root is warranted long after the ASO.

Prognostic utility of a novel risk prediction model of 1-year mortality in patients surviving to discharge after surgery for congenital or acquired heart disease.

OBJECTIVE: We sought to develop a novel risk prediction model of 1-year mortality after congenital heart surgery that accounts for clinical, anatomic, echocardiographic, and socioeconomic factors. METHODS: This was a single-center, retrospective review of consecutive index operations for congenital or acquired heart disease, from January 2011 to January 2021, among patients with known survival status at 1 year after discharge from the index hospitalization. The primary outcome was postdischarge mortality at 1 year. Variables of interest included age, prematurity, noncardiac anomalies or syndromes, the Childhood Opportunity Index, primary procedure, major adverse postoperative complications, and the Residual Lesion Score. Logistic regression was used to develop a weighted risk score for the primary outcome. Internal validation using a bootstrap-resampling approach was performed. RESULTS: Of 10,412 consecutive operations for congenital or acquired heart disease, 8808 (84.6%) cases met entry criteria, including survival to discharge. There were 190 (2.2%) deaths at 1 year postdischarge. A weighted risk score was formulated on the basis of the variables in the final risk prediction model, which included all aforementioned risk factors of interest. This model had a C-statistic of 0.82 (95% confidence interval, 0.80-0.85). The median risk score was 6 (interquartile range, 4-8) points. Patients were categorized as low (score 0-5), medium (score 6-10), high (score 11-15), or very high (score 16-20) risk. The expected probability of mortality was 0.4% ± 0.2%, 2.0% ± 1.1%, 10.1% ± 5.0%, and 36.6% ± 9.6% for low-risk, medium-risk, high-risk, and very high-risk patients, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: A risk prediction model of 1-year mortality may guide prognostication and follow-up of patients after discharge after surgery for congenital or acquired heart disease.

Tissue formation and host remodeling of an elastomeric biodegradable scaffold in an ovine pulmonary leaflet replacement model.

In pursuit of a suitable scaffold material for cardiac valve tissue engineering applications, an acellular, electrospun, biodegradable polyester carbonate urethane urea (PECUU) scaffold was evaluated as a pulmonary valve leaflet replacement in vivo. In sheep (n = 8), a single pulmonary valve leaflet was replaced with a PECUU leaflet and followed for 1, 6, and 12 weeks. Implanted leaflet function was assessed in vivo by echocardiography. Explanted samples were studied for gross pathology, microscopic changes in the extracellular matrix, host cellular re-population, and immune responses, and for biomechanical properties. PECUU leaflets showed normal leaflet motion at implant, but decreased leaflet motion and dimensions at 6 weeks. The leaflets accumulated α-SMA and CD45 positive cells, with surfaces covered with endothelial cells (CD31+). New collagen formation occurred (Picrosirius Red). Accumulated tissue thickness correlated with the decrease in leaflet motion. The PECUU scaffolds had histologic evidence of scaffold degradation and an accumulation of pro-inflammatory/M1 and anti-inflammatory/M2 macrophages over time in vivo. The extent of inflammatory cell accumulation correlated with tissue formation and polymer degradation but was also associated with leaflet thickening and decreased leaflet motion. Future studies should explore pre-implant seeding of polymer scaffolds, more advanced polymer fabrication methods able to more closely approximate native tissue structure and function, and other techniques to control and balance the degradation of biomaterials and new tissue formation by modulation of the host immune response.

Pentagalloyl glucose-stabilized decellularized bovine jugular vein valved conduits as pulmonary conduit replacement.

Congenital heart diseases (CHD) are one of the most frequently diagnosed congenital disorders, affecting approximately 40,000 live births annually in the United States. Out of the new patients diagnosed with CHD yearly, an estimated 2,500 patients require a substitute, non-native conduit artery to replace structures congenitally absent or hypoplastic. Devices used for conduit replacement encounter limitations exhibiting varying degrees of stiffness, calcification, susceptibility to infection, thrombosis, and a lack of implant growth capacity. Here, we report the functionality of pentagalloyl glucose (PGG) stabilized decellularized valved bovine jugular vein conduit (PGG-DBJVC). The PGG-DBJVC tissues demonstrated mechanical properties comparable to native and glutaraldehyde fixed tissues, while exhibiting resistance to both collagenase and elastase enzymatic degradation. Subcutaneous implantation of tissues established their biocompatibility and resistance to calcification, while implantation in sheep in the pulmonary position demonstrated adequate implant functionality, and repopulation of host cells, without excessive inflammation. In conclusion, this PGG-DBJVC device could be a favorable replacement option for pediatric patients, reducing the need for reoperations required with current devices. STATEMENT OF SIGNIFICANCE: Congenital Heart Disease (CHD) is a common congenital disorder affecting many newborns in the United States each year. The use of substitute conduit arteries is necessary for some patients with CHD who have missing or underdeveloped structures. Current conduit replacement devices have limitations, including stiffness, susceptibility to infection and thrombosis, and lack of implant growth capacity. Pentagalloyl glucose-stabilized bovine jugular vein valved tissue (PGG-DBJVC) offers a promising solution as it is resistant to calcification, and biocompatible. When implanted in rats and as pulmonary conduit replacement in sheep, the PGG-DBJVC demonstrated cellular infiltration without excessive inflammation, which could lead to remodeling and integration with host tissue and eliminate the need for replacement as the child grows.

Natural history of aortic root dilatation and pathologic aortic regurgitation in tetralogy of Fallot and its morphological variants.

OBJECTIVE: We sought to characterize the natural history of aortic root dilatation and aortic regurgitation in tetralogy of Fallot (TOF). METHODS: A single-center review of patients who underwent TOF repair from January 1960 to December 2022 was performed. Morphology was categorized as TOF-pulmonary stenosis or TOF-variant (including TOF-pulmonary atresia and TOF-pulmonary atresia-major aortopulmonary collateral arteries). Echocardiographically determined diameters and derived z scores were measured at the annulus, sinus of Valsalva, and sinotubular junction immediately before TOF repair and throughout follow-up. Linear mixed-effects models assessed trends in dimensions over time. RESULTS: Of 2205 patients who underwent primary repair of TOF at a median age of 4.9 months (interquartile range, 2.3-20.5 months) and survived to discharge, 1608 (72.9%) patients had TOF-pulmonary stenosis and 597 (27.1%) patients had TOF-variant. At a median postoperative follow-up of 14.4 years (interquartile range, 3.3-27.6 years; range, 0.1-62.6 years), 313 (14.2%) patients had mild or greater aortic regurgitation and 34 (1.5%) patients required an aortic valve or root intervention. The overall mean rates of annular, sinus of Valsalva, and sinotubular junction growth were 0.5 ± 0.2, 0.6 ± 0.3, and 0.7 ± 0.5 mm/year, respectively. Root z scores remained stable with time. At baseline, patients with TOF-variant had larger diameters and z scores at the annulus, sinus of Valsalva, and sinotubular junction, compared with patients with TOF-pulmonary stenosis (all P values < .05). Over time, patients with TOF-variant demonstrated relatively greater annular (P = .020), sinus of Valsalva (P < .001), and sinotubular junction (P < .001) dilatation. Patients with ≥75th percentile root growth rates had a higher incidence of mild or greater aortic regurgitation (P < .001), moderate or greater aortic regurgitation (P < .001), and aortic valve repair or replacement (P = .045). CONCLUSIONS: Patients with TOF-variant are at comparatively greater risk of pathologic root dilatation over time, warranting closer longitudinal follow-up.

Natural History of Truncal Root Dilatation and Truncal Valve Regurgitation in Truncus Arteriosus.

BACKGROUND: The natural history of the dilated truncal root in repaired truncus arteriosus (TA) is incompletely understood. METHODS: A single-center review of patients who underwent TA repair between January 1984 and December 2018 was performed. Echocardiographically determined root diameters and derived z scores were measured at the annulus, sinus of Valsalva (SoV), and sinutubular junction (STJ) immediately before TA repair and throughout follow-up. Linear mixed-effects models assessed trends in root dimensions over time. RESULTS: Of 193 patients who underwent TA repair at a median age of 12 days (interquartile range, 6-48 days) and survived to discharge, 34 (17.6%), 110 (57.0%), and 49 (25.4%) patients had bicuspid, tricuspid, and quadricuspid truncal valves, respectively. Median postoperative follow-up was 11.6 years (interquartile range, 4.4-22.0 years; range, 0.1-34.8 years). Truncal valve or root intervention was required in 38 patients (19.7%). The mean rates of annular, SoV, and STJ growth were 0.7 ± 0.3 mm/y, 0.8 ± 0.5 mm/y, and 0.9 ± 0.4 mm/y, respectively. Root z scores remained stable with time. At baseline, compared with patients with tricuspid leaflet anatomy, bicuspid patients had larger diameters at the SoV (P = .003) and STJ (P = .029), whereas quadricuspid patients had larger STJ diameters (P = .004). Over time, the bicuspid and quadricuspid cohorts demonstrated comparatively greater annular dilatation (both P < .05). Patients with ≥75th percentile root growth rates had a higher incidence of moderate-severe truncal regurgitation (P = .019) and truncal valve intervention (P = .002). CONCLUSIONS: Root dilatation in TA persisted for up to 30 years after primary repair. Patients with bicuspid and quadricuspid truncal valves demonstrated greater root dilatation over time and required more valve interventions. Continued longitudinal follow-up is warranted in this higher-risk cohort.

Development of a Novel Society of Thoracic Surgeons Adult Congenital Mortality Risk Model.

BACKGROUND: Operative mortality risk models for adults with congenital heart disease (ACHD) undergoing cardiac operations are essential, given the growing population of these patients, yet they are currently unavailable. Existing adult Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) models exclude congenital procedures, whereas existing congenital models exclude operations for acquired disease. We aimed to develop an STS mortality risk model for ACHD patients undergoing cardiac operations. METHODS: Leveraging a comprehensive list of diagnostic and procedure codes, ACHD patients who underwent cardiac operations were identified from the STS Adult Cardiac Surgery Database (versions: v2.73, v2.81, and v2.9) between 2011 and 2019. The model was developed and validated in the ACHD population using a 60/40 development/validation split. Univariate analyses and clinical expertise informed the addition of ACHD-relevant procedure and diagnosis variables to existing STS adult risk model variables. Model performance was assessed overall and in 38 subgroups based on patient demographics, procedures, and diagnoses. RESULTS: Forty-seven procedure and diagnosis variables relevant to ACHD were added to existing STS adult risk model variables. The derived ACHD model for operative mortality was well calibrated within demographic, procedural, and diagnosis subgroups and the overall ACHD population, and discrimination in the validation cohort was excellent (C statistic, 0.815) compared with the model using only existing STS adult risk model variables (C statistic, 0.79; P < .0001). CONCLUSIONS: A novel, high-performing STS ACHD mortality risk model has been developed on the basis of contemporary patient data. The ACHD risk model represents an important expansion of the STS portfolio. Implementation with an online risk calculator is planned.

The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Congenital Heart Surgery Database: 2022 Update on Outcomes and Research.

The Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) Congenital Heart Surgery Database continues to be one of the most comprehensive clinical outcomes registries capturing almost all pediatric cardiothoracic surgical operations undertaken in the United States. The latest analysis of aggregate outcomes was performed after the 33rd data harvest and included congenital and pediatric cardiac operations performed between July 1, 2017 and June 30, 2021. This article summarizes these contemporary outcomes and provides a context for the interpretation of these outcomes. In addition this article describes ongoing efforts to improve data collection and augment analytical approaches. Finally, research activities undertaken in the last year using data from the database are also summarized.

Variation in Case-Mix Across Hospitals: Analysis of The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Congenital Heart Surgery Database.

BACKGROUND: The Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) Congenital Heart Surgery Database was queried to document variation of patient characteristics, procedure types, and programmatic case-mix. METHODS: All index cardiac operations in patients less than 18 years of age in the STS Congenital Heart Surgery Database (July 2016 to June 2020) were eligible for inclusion except patients weighing ≤2.5 kg undergoing isolated patent ductus arteriosus closure. At the hospital level, we describe variations in patient and procedural characteristics known from previous analyses to be associated with outcomes. We also report variations across hospitals of programmatic case-mix. RESULTS: Data were analyzed from 117 sites (90 322 total operations, 87 296 total index cardiac operations eligible for STAT [STS-European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery] 2020 Mortality Score). The median annual total index cardiac operations eligible for STAT 2020 Mortality Score per hospital was 157 (interquartile range [IQR], 94-276). Wide variability was documented in total annual index cardiac operations eligible for STAT 2020 Mortality Score per hospital (ratio 90th/10th percentile = 9.01), operations in neonates weighing <2.5 kg (ratio 90th/10th percentile = 4.09), operations in patients with noncardiac anatomic abnormalities (ratio 90th/10th percentile = 3.46), and operations in patients with preoperative mechanical ventilation (ratio 90th/10th percentile = 3.97). At the hospital level, the median percentage of all index cardiac operations in STAT 2020 Mortality Category 5 was 3.7% (IQR, 1.7%-4.9%), the median percentage of all index cardiac operations in STAT 2020 Mortality Category 4 or 5 was 24.4% (IQR, 19.0%-28.4%), the median hospital-specific mean STAT Mortality Category was 2.39 (IQR, 2.20-2.47), and the median hospital-specific mean STAT Mortality Score was 0.86 (IQR, 0.73-0.91). CONCLUSIONS: Substantial variation of patient characteristics, procedure types, and case-mix exists across pediatric and congenital cardiac surgical programs. Knowledge about programmatic case-mix augments data about indirectly standardized programmatic observed-to-expected (O/E) mortality. Indirectly standardized O/E ratios do not provide a complete description of a given pediatric and congenital cardiac surgical program. The indirectly standardized programmatic O/E ratios associated with a given program apply only to its specific case-mix of patients and may represent a quite different case-mix than that of another program.

The Endangered State of Medicare Reimbursement for Cardiothoracic Surgery: A Call to Action.

Reimbursement for cardiothoracic surgery continues to be threatened with enormous financial cuts ranging from 5% to 10% in recent years. In this policy perspective, we describe the history of reimbursement for cardiothoracic surgery, highlight areas in need of urgent reform, propose possible solutions that Congress and the Executive Branch may enact, and call cardiothoracic surgeons to action on this critical issue. Meaningful engagement of members of The Society of Thoracic Surgeons with their elected representatives is the only way to prevent these cuts.

Mortality Prediction After Cardiac Surgery in Children: An STS Congenital Heart Surgery Database Analysis.

BACKGROUND: The Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) Congenital Heart Surgery Database (CHSD) provides risk-adjusted operative mortality rates to approximately 120 North American congenital heart centers. Optimal case-mix adjustment methods for operative mortality risk prediction in this population remain unclear. METHODS: A panel created diagnosis-procedure combinations of encounters in the CHSD. Models for operative mortality using the new diagnosis-procedure categories, procedure-specific risk factors, and syndromes or abnormalities included in the CHSD were estimated using Bayesian additive regression trees and least absolute shrinkage and selector operator (lasso) models. Performance of the new models was compared with the current STS CHSD risk model. RESULTS: Of 98 825 operative encounters (69 063 training; 29 762 testing), 2818 (2.85%) STS-defined operative mortalities were observed. Differences in sensitivity, specificity, and true and false positive predicted values were negligible across models. Calibration for mortality predictions at the higher end of risk from the lasso and Bayesian additive regression trees models was better than predictions from the STS CHSD model, likely because of the new models' inclusion of diagnosis-palliative procedure variables affecting <1% of patients overall but accounting for 27% of mortalities. Model discrimination varied across models for high-risk procedures, hospital volume, and hospitals. CONCLUSIONS: Overall performance of the new models did not differ meaningfully from the STS CHSD risk model. Adding procedure-specific risk factors and allowing diagnosis to modify predicted risk for palliative operations may augment model performance for very high-risk surgical procedures. Given the importance of risk adjustment in estimating hospital quality, a comparative assessment of surgical program quality evaluations using the different models is warranted.