An expert-based system to predict population survival rate from health data.

Timely detection and understanding of causes for population decline are essential for effective wildlife management and conservation. Assessing trends in population size has been the standard approach, but we propose that monitoring population health could prove more effective. We collated data from 7 bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus) populations in the southeastern United States to develop a method for estimating survival probability based on a suite of health measures identified by experts as indices for inflammatory, metabolic, pulmonary, and neuroendocrine systems. We used logistic regression to implement the veterinary expert system for outcome prediction (VESOP) within a Bayesian analysis framework. We fitted parameters with records from 5 of the sites that had a robust network of responders to marine mammal strandings and frequent photographic identification surveys that documented definitive survival outcomes. We also conducted capture-mark-recapture (CMR) analyses of photographic identification data to obtain separate estimates of population survival rates for comparison with VESOP survival estimates. The VESOP analyses showed that multiple measures of health, particularly markers of inflammation, were predictive of 1- and 2-year individual survival. The highest mortality risk 1 year following health assessment related to low alkaline phosphatase (odds ratio [OR] = 10.2 [95% CI: 3.41-26.8]), whereas 2-year mortality was most influenced by elevated globulin (OR = 9.60 [95% CI: 3.88-22.4]); both are markers of inflammation. The VESOP model predicted population-level survival rates that correlated with estimated survival rates from CMR analyses for the same populations (1-year Pearson's r = 0.99, p = 1.52 × 10-5 ; 2-year r = 0.94, p = 0.001). Although our proposed approach will not detect acute mortality threats that are largely independent of animal health, such as harmful algal blooms, it can be used to detect chronic health conditions that increase mortality risk. Random sampling of the population is important and advancement in remote sampling methods could facilitate more random selection of subjects, obtainment of larger sample sizes, and extension of the approach to other wildlife species.

Un sistema basado en conocimiento experto para predecir la tasa de supervivencia a partir de datos de salud Resumen La detección y el entendimiento oportunos de la declinación poblacional son esenciales para que el manejo y la conservación de fauna tengan efectividad. La evaluación de las tendencias en el tamaño poblacional ha sido la estrategia estándar, pero proponemos que el monitoreo de la salud poblacional podría ser más efectivo. Recopilamos datos de siete poblaciones de delfines (Tursiops truncatus) en el sureste de Estados Unidos para desarrollar un método de estimación de la probabilidad de supervivencia con base en un conjunto de medidas sanitarias identificadas por expertos como índices para los sistemas inflamatorio, metabólico, pulmonar y neuroendocrino. Usamos la regresión logística para implementar el sistema de expertos veterinarios para la predicción de resultados (SEVPR) en un análisis bayesiano. Ajustamos los parámetros con los registros de cinco sitios que contaban con una buena red de respondientes a los varamientos de mamíferos marinos y censos de identificación fotográfica (foto-ID) que documentaron los resultados de supervivencia definitivos. También realizamos análisis de marcaje-recaptura (MR) en los datos de identificación fotográfica para obtener estimados separados de las tasas de supervivencia poblacional para compararlos con los estimados del SEVPR. Los análisis del SEVPR mostraron que varias medidas sanitarias, particularmente los marcadores de inflamación son buenos predictores de la supervivencia individual para uno y dos años. El riesgo de mortalidad más alto un año después de la valoración sanitaria se relacionó con una fosfatasa alcalina baja (cociente de probabilidades de 10.2 [95% CI 3.41-26.8]), mientras que la mortalidad a los dos años estuvo más influenciada por una globulina elevada (9.60 [95% CI 3.88-22.4]); ambas son marcadores de la inflamación. El modelo del SEVPR predijo las tasas de supervivencia a nivel poblacional en correlación con las tasas estimadas de supervivencia de los análisis de MR para las mismas poblaciones (Pearson de un año r = 0.99, p = 1.52e-05; dos años r = 0.94, p = 0.001). Aunque nuestra propuesta no detecta las amenazas agudas de mortalidad que en su mayoría son independientes de la salud animal, como la proliferación de algas nocivas, puede usarse para detectar las condiciones crónicas de salud que incrementan el riesgo de mortalidad. Es importante el muestreo aleatorio de la población y los avances en los métodos de muestreo remoto podrían facilitar una selección más aleatoria de los sujetos, la obtención de muestras de mayor tamaño y la expansión de la estrategia a otras especies de fauna.

Abundance and demography of common bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus truncatus) in the Indian River Lagoon, Florida: A robust design capture-recapture analysis.

Common bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus truncatus) inhabiting the Indian River Lagoon (IRL) estuarine system along the east coast of Florida are impacted by anthropogenic activities and have had multiple unexplained mortality events. Given this, managers need precise estimates of demographic and abundance parameters. Mark-recapture photo-identification boat-based surveys following a Robust Design were used to estimate abundance, adult survival, and temporary emigration for the IRL estuarine system stock of bottlenose dolphins. Models allowed for temporary emigration and included a parameter (time since first capture) to assess evidence for transient individuals. Surveys (n = 135) were conducted along predetermined contour and transect lines throughout the entire IRL (2016-2017). The best fitting model allowed survival to differ for residents and transients and to vary by primary period, detection to vary by secondary session, and did not include temporary emigration. Dolphin abundance was estimated from 981 (95% CI: 882-1,090) in winter to 1,078 (95% CI: 968-1,201) in summer with a mean of 1,032 (95% CI: 969-1,098). Model averaged seasonal survival rate for marked residents was 0.85-1.00. Capture probability was 0.20 to 0.42 during secondary sessions and the transient rate was estimated as 0.06 to 0.07. This study is the first Robust Design mark-recapture survey to estimate abundance for IRL dolphins and provides population estimates to improve future survey design, as well as an example of data simulation to validate and optimize sampling design. Transients likely included individuals with home ranges extending north of the IRL requiring further assessment of stock delineation. Results were similar to prior abundance estimates from line-transect aerial surveys suggesting population stability over the last decade. These results will enable managers to evaluate the impact of fisheries-related takes and provide baseline demographic parameters for the IRL dolphin population which contends with anthropogenic impacts and repeated mortality events.

Effects of study area size on home range estimates of common bottlenose dolphins Tursiops truncatus.

Knowledge of an animal's home range is a crucial component in making informed management decisions. However, many home range studies are limited by study area size, and therefore may underestimate the size of the home range. In many cases, individuals have been shown to travel outside of the study area and utilize a larger area than estimated by the study design. In this study, data collected by multiple research groups studying bottlenose dolphins on the east coast of Florida were combined to determine how home range estimates increased with increasing study area size. Home range analyses utilized photo-identification data collected from 6 study areas throughout the St Johns River (SJR; Jacksonville, FL, USA) and adjacent waterways, extending a total of 253 km to the southern end of Mosquito Lagoon in the Indian River Lagoon Estuarine System. Univariate kernel density estimates (KDEs) were computed for individuals with 10 or more sightings (n = 20). Kernels were calculated for the primary study area (SJR) first, then additional kernels were calculated by combining the SJR and the next adjacent waterway; this continued in an additive fashion until all study areas were included. The 95% and 50% KDEs calculated for the SJR alone ranged from 21 to 35 km and 4 to 19 km, respectively. The 95% and 50% KDEs calculated for all combined study areas ranged from 116 to 217 km and 9 to 70 km, respectively. This study illustrates the degree to which home range may be underestimated by the use of limited study areas and demonstrates the benefits of conducting collaborative science.

Mercury concentrations in Atlantic bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) inhabiting the Indian River Lagoon, Florida: Patterns of spatial and temporal distribution.

Bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) inhabiting the Indian River Lagoon, FL (IRL) have tissue mercury concentrations among the highest reported worldwide. Analysis of total mercury (THg) concentrations in blood collected between 2003 and 2012 showed a significant linear decrease over time (p=0.04). Significant differences in the spatial distribution of THg in resident IRL dolphins were also observed with a general gradient in concentration from north to south. Evaluation of local biogeochemistry and accumulation of mercury in prey species is needed to better understand factors influencing the distribution of Hg in the apex predator. Analyses of temporal and spatial patterns of exposure to THg in this sentinel species may have implications for both ecosystem and public health in the region.

Risk factors for colonization of E. coli in Atlantic Bottlenose Dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) in the Indian River Lagoon, Florida.

Opportunistic pathogens related to degradation in water quality are of concern to both wildlife and public health. The objective of this study was to identify spatial, temporal, and environmental risk factors for E. coli colonization among Atlantic bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) inhabiting the Indian River Lagoon (IRL), FL between 2003 and 2007. Age, gender, capture location, coastal human population density, proximity of sewage treatment plants, number of septic tanks, cumulative precipitation 48 hrs and 30 days prior to capture, salinity, and water temperature were analyzed as potential risk factors. Highest E. coli colonization rates occurred in the northern segments of the IRL. The risk of E. coli colonization was the highest among the youngest individuals, in counties with the highest cumulative rainfall 48 hrs and in counties with the highest number of septic systems during the year of capture. The prevalence of colonization was the highest during 2004, a year during which multiple hurricanes hit the coast of Florida. Septic tanks, in combination with weather-related events suggest a possible pathway for introduction of fecal coliforms into estuarine ecosystems. The ability of E. coli and related bacteria to act as primary pathogens or cause opportunistic infections adds importance of these findings.

Lacaziosis in bottlenose dolphins Tursiops truncatus along the coastal Atlantic Ocean, Florida, USA.

This study represents the first systematic study of lacaziosis (lobomycosis) in bottlenose dolphins Tursiops truncatus in the Atlantic Ocean along the east-central coast of Florida, USA. Lacaziosis is a chronic infection of the skin caused by the fungus Lacazia loboi, which affects only dolphins and humans. Previous studies have shown a high prevalence (6.8 to 12.0%) of lacaziosis in resident dolphins from the adjacent Indian River Lagoon Estuary (IRL), where the disease is endemic. We examined the prevalence of lacaziosis in this coastal area using photo-identification data collected between 2002 and 2008 to determine the prevalence of lacaziosis in coastal dolphins using photographic methodology shown to have high sensitivity and specificity in prior research. The prevalence of skin lesions compatible with lacaziosis estimated from photographic data was 2.1% (6/284), approximately 3 times lower than that described for the estuarine population using similar methods. To exclude potential bias introduced by differences in study duration and survey effort among areas, an 18 mo period when effort was most equal (January 2006 to June 2007) was chosen for statistical comparison. The prevalence of lacaziosis estimated from photographic data was significantly lower (3.8%: n = 6/160) in the Atlantic Ocean compared to the IRL (12.0%: n = 20/167) (risk ratio = 3.19, 95% CI 1.32 to 7.75, p < 0.01 by chi-square analysis). The lower prevalence of lacaziosis in dolphins found in the Atlantic Ocean and the overall lack of movement of dolphins between these habitats suggests that environmental conditions within the estuary may favor viability of L. loboi, and/or that immune compromise in resident estuarine dolphins is a precursor to the disease.

Home ranges of bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) in the Indian River Lagoon, Florida: environmental correlates and implications for management strategies.

Photo-identification surveys conducted between 2002 and 2005 were used to determine dolphin home ranges and site fidelity within the Indian River Lagoon (IRL), Florida. The IRL was divided into six segments based on hydrodynamics and geographic features for purposes of characterization. Among the 615 dolphins with identifiable dorsal fins, 339 had > or =6 sightings and were used in segment and linear range analyses. The majority (98%) of dolphins were seen in < or =3 consecutive segments (331/339); of these, 44% (144/331) occurred in two segments, and 33% (109/331) in one segment. No dolphins were observed in all six segments. The largest number of dolphins was sighted in segment 1C (North Indian River). However, the highest density of dolphins was found in segment 2 (North-Central Indian River). Re-sighting rates for dolphins with > or =6 sightings ranged from 2.8 to 8.7 times observed. The mean linear home range varied from 22 to 54 km. Distributional analyses indicated that at least three different dolphin communities exist within the IRL: Mosquito Lagoon, and the North and South Indian River. No statistically significant correlations were found between the total number or density per km(2 )of dolphins and surface water area, salinity, or contaminant loads within segments of the lagoon. These results suggest that dolphins do not selectively avoid areas with relatively unfavorable water quality. IRL dolphins should be studied on smaller spatial scales than currently practiced, and potential anthropogenic impacts should be evaluated based on geographic partitioning.

Lobomycosis in bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) from the Indian River Lagoon, Florida: estimation of prevalence, temporal trends, and spatial distribution.

Lobomycosis (lacaziosis) is a chronic fungal disease of the skin that affects only dolphins and humans. Previous studies have shown a high prevalence of lobomycosis in bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) from the Indian River Lagoon, Florida (IRL). We studied the occurrence and distribution of lobomycosis in the IRL using photo-identification survey data collected between 1996 and 2006. Our objectives were to (1) determine the sensitivity and specificity of photo-identification for diagnosis of lobomycosis in free-ranging dolphins; (2) determine the spatial distribution of lobomycosis in the IRL; and (3) assess temporal patterns of occurrence. Photographs from 704 distinctly marked dolphins were reviewed for skin lesions compatible with lobomycosis. The presumptive diagnosis was validated by comparing the results of photographic analysis with physical examination and histologic examination of lesion biopsies in 102 dolphins captured and released during a health assessment and 3 stranded dolphins. Twelve of 16 confirmed cases were identified previously by photography, a sensitivity of 75%. Among 89 dolphins without disease, all 89 were considered negative, a specificity of 100%. The prevalence of lobomycosis estimated from photographic data was 6.8% (48/704). Spatial distribution was determined by dividing the IRL into six segments based on hydrodynamics and geographic features. The prevalence ranged from <1% in the Mosquito Lagoon to 16.9% in the south Indian River. The incidence of the disease did not increase during the study period, indicating that the disease is endemic, rather than emerging. In summary, photo-identification is a useful tool to monitor the course of individual and population health for this enigmatic disease.

Evaluation and comparison of the health status of Atlantic bottlenose dolphins from the Indian River Lagoon, Florida, and Charleston, South Carolina.

OBJECTIVE: To conduct health assessments and compare outcomes in 2 populations of Atlantic bottlenose dolphins. Design-Repeated cross-sectional study. ANIMALS: 171 Atlantic bottlenose dolphins. PROCEDURES: During June and August of 2003 through 2005, 89 dolphins from the Indian River Lagoon (IRL), Florida, and 82 dolphins from estuarine waters near Charleston, SC, were evaluated. A panel of 5 marine mammal veterinarians classified dolphins as clinically normal, possibly diseased, or definitely diseased on the basis of results of physical and ultrasonographic examinations, hematologic and serum biochemical analyses, and cytologic and microbiologic evaluations of gastric contents and swab specimens. RESULTS: Prevalence of dolphins classified as definitely diseased did not differ significantly between the IRL (32%) and Charleston (20%) sites. Proportions of dolphins classified as possibly diseased also did not differ. Lobomycosis was diagnosed in 9 dolphins from the IRL but in none of the dolphins from Charleston. Proportions of dolphins with orogenital papillomas did not differ significantly between the IRL (12%) and Charleston (7%) sites. From 2003 through 2005, the proportion classified as definitely diseased tripled among dolphins from the Charleston site but did not increase significantly among dolphins from the IRL. Dolphins from the Charleston site were more likely to have leukocytosis, lymphocytosis, and low serum concentrations of total protein and total J-globulins than were dolphins from the IRL. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: High prevalences of diseased dolphins were identified at both sites; however, the host or environmental factors that contributed to the various abnormalities detected are unknown.

Lobomycosis in Atlantic bottlenose dolphins from the Indian River Lagoon, Florida.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the prevalence of lobomycosis, a mycotic infection of dolphins and humans caused by a yeastlike organism (Lacazia loboi), among dolphins in the Indian River Lagoon in Florida. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study. ANIMALS: 146 Atlantic bottlenose dolphins. PROCEDURE: Comprehensive health assessments of bottlenose dolphins in the Indian River Lagoon of Florida (n = 75) and in estuarine waters near Charleston, SC (71), were conducted during 2003 and 2004. Bottlenose dolphins were captured, examined, and released. Skin lesions were photographed and then biopsied. Tissue sections were stained with H&E and Gomori methenamine silver stains for identification of L. loboi. RESULTS: 9 of 30 (30%) dolphins captured in the southern portion of the Indian River Lagoon had lobomycosis, whereas none of the 45 dolphins captured in the northern portion of the lagoon or of the 71 dolphins captured near Charleston, SC, did. Affected dolphins had low serum alkaline phosphatase activities and high acute-phase protein concentrations. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Results suggest that lobomycosis may be occurring in epidemic proportions among dolphins in the Indian River Lagoon. Localization of the disease to the southern portion of the lagoon, an area characterized by freshwater intrusion and lower salinity, suggests that exposure to environmental stressors may be contributing to the high prevalence of the disease, but specific factors are unknown. Because only dolphins and humans are naturally susceptible to infection, dolphins may represent a sentinel species for an emerging infectious disease.