Transmission ecology of canine parvovirus in a multi-host, multi-pathogen system.

Understanding multi-host pathogen maintenance and transmission dynamics is critical for disease control. However, transmission dynamics remain enigmatic largely because they are difficult to observe directly, particularly in wildlife. Here, we investigate the transmission dynamics of canine parvovirus (CPV) using state-space modelling of 20 years of CPV serology data from domestic dogs and African lions in the Serengeti ecosystem. We show that, although vaccination reduces the probability of infection in dogs, and despite indirect enhancement of population seropositivity as a result of vaccine shedding, the vaccination coverage achieved has been insufficient to prevent CPV from becoming widespread. CPV is maintained by the dog population and has become endemic with approximately 3.5-year cycles and prevalence reaching approximately 80%. While the estimated prevalence in lions is lower, peaks of infection consistently follow those in dogs. Dogs exposed to CPV are also more likely to become infected with a second multi-host pathogen, canine distemper virus. However, vaccination can weaken this coupling, raising questions about the value of monovalent versus polyvalent vaccines against these two pathogens. Our findings highlight the need to consider both pathogen- and host-level community interactions when seeking to understand the dynamics of multi-host pathogens and their implications for conservation, disease surveillance and control programmes.

Dynamics of a morbillivirus at the domestic-wildlife interface: Canine distemper virus in domestic dogs and lions.

Morbilliviruses cause many diseases of medical and veterinary importance, and although some (e.g., measles and rinderpest) have been controlled successfully, others, such as canine distemper virus (CDV), are a growing concern. A propensity for host-switching has resulted in CDV emergence in new species, including endangered wildlife, posing challenges for controlling disease in multispecies communities. CDV is typically associated with domestic dogs, but little is known about its maintenance and transmission in species-rich areas or about the potential role of domestic dog vaccination as a means of reducing disease threats to wildlife. We address these questions by analyzing a long-term serological dataset of CDV in lions and domestic dogs from Tanzania's Serengeti ecosystem. Using a Bayesian state-space model, we show that dynamics of CDV have changed considerably over the past three decades. Initially, peaks of CDV infection in dogs preceded those in lions, suggesting that spill-over from dogs was the main driver of infection in wildlife. However, despite dog-to-lion transmission dominating cross-species transmission models, infection peaks in lions became more frequent and asynchronous from those in dogs, suggesting that other wildlife species may play a role in a potentially complex maintenance community. Widespread mass vaccination of domestic dogs reduced the probability of infection in dogs and the size of outbreaks but did not prevent transmission to or peaks of infection in lions. This study demonstrates the complexity of CDV dynamics in natural ecosystems and the value of long-term, large-scale datasets for investigating transmission patterns and evaluating disease control strategies.

Serologic surveillance of anthrax in the Serengeti ecosystem, Tanzania, 1996-2009.

Bacillus anthracis, the bacterium that causes anthrax, is responsible for varying death rates among animal species. Difficulties in case detection, hazardous or inaccessible carcasses, and misdiagnosis hinder surveillance. Using case reports and a new serologic assay that enables multispecies comparisons, we examined exposure to and illness caused by B. anthracis in different species in the Serengeti ecosystem in Tanzania during 1996-2009 and the utility of serosurveillance. High seroprevalence among carnivores suggested regular nonfatal exposure. Seropositive wildebeest and buffalo showed that infection was not invariably fatal among herbivores, whereas absence of seropositivity in zebras and frequent detection of fatal cases indicated high susceptibility. Exposure patterns in dogs reflected known patterns of endemicity and provided new information about anthrax in the ecosystem, which indicated the potential of dogs as indicator species. Serosurveillance is a valuable tool for monitoring and detecting anthrax and may shed light on mechanisms responsible for species-specific variability in exposure, susceptibility, and mortality rates.

Predictability of anthrax infection in the Serengeti, Tanzania.

Anthrax is endemic throughout Africa, causing considerable livestock and wildlife losses and severe, sometimes fatal, infection in humans. Predicting the risk of infection is therefore important for public health, wildlife conservation and livestock economies. However, because of the intermittent and variable nature of anthrax outbreaks, associated environmental and climatic conditions, and diversity of species affected, the ecology of this multihost pathogen is poorly understood.We explored records of anthrax from the Serengeti ecosystem in north-west Tanzania where the disease has been documented in humans, domestic animals and a range of wildlife. Using spatial and temporal case-detection and seroprevalence data from wild and domestic animals, we investigated spatial, environmental, climatic and species-specific associations in exposure and disease.Anthrax was detected annually in numerous species, but large outbreaks were spatially localized, mostly affecting a few focal herbivores.Soil alkalinity and cumulative weather extremes were identified as useful spatial and temporal predictors of exposure and infection risk, and for triggering the onset of large outbreaks.Interacting ecological and behavioural factors, specifically functional groups and spatiotemporal overlap, helped to explain the variable patterns of infection and exposure among species.Synthesis and applications. Our results shed light on ecological drivers of anthrax infection and suggest that soil alkalinity and prolonged droughts or rains are useful predictors of disease occurrence that could guide risk-based surveillance. These insights should inform strategies for managing anthrax including prophylactic livestock vaccination, timing of public health warnings and antibiotic provision in high-risk areas. However, this research highlights the need for greater surveillance (environmental, serological and case-detection-orientated) to determine the mechanisms underlying anthrax dynamics.

Exploring reservoir dynamics: a case study of rabies in the Serengeti ecosystem.

Knowledge of infection reservoir dynamics is critical for effective disease control, but identifying reservoirs of multi-host pathogens is challenging. Here, we synthesize several lines of evidence to investigate rabies reservoirs in complex carnivore communities of the Serengeti ecological region in northwest Tanzania, where the disease has been confirmed in 12 carnivore species.Long-term monitoring data suggest that rabies persists in high-density domestic dog Canis familiaris populations (> 11 dogs km(-2)) and occurs less frequently in lower-density (< 5 dogs km(-2)) populations and only sporadically in wild carnivores.Genetic data show that a single rabies virus variant belonging to the group of southern Africa canid-associated viruses (Africa 1b) circulates among a range of species, with no evidence of species-specific virus-host associations.Within-species transmission was more frequently inferred from high-resolution epidemiological data than between-species transmission. Incidence patterns indicate that spill-over of rabies from domestic dog populations sometimes initiates short-lived chains of transmission in other carnivores.Synthesis and applications. The balance of evidence suggests that the reservoir of rabies in the Serengeti ecosystem is a complex multi-host community where domestic dogs are the only population essential for persistence, although other carnivores contribute to the reservoir as non-maintenance populations. Control programmes that target domestic dog populations should therefore have the greatest impact on reducing the risk of infection in all other species including humans, livestock and endangered wildlife populations, but transmission in other species may increase the level of vaccination coverage in domestic dog populations necessary to eliminate rabies.