From first to second wave: follow-up of the prospective COVID-19 cohort (KoCo19) in Munich (Germany).

BACKGROUND: In the 2nd year of the COVID-19 pandemic, knowledge about the dynamics of the infection in the general population is still limited. Such information is essential for health planners, as many of those infected show no or only mild symptoms and thus, escape the surveillance system. We therefore aimed to describe the course of the pandemic in the Munich general population living in private households from April 2020 to January 2021. METHODS: The KoCo19 baseline study took place from April to June 2020 including 5313 participants (age 14 years and above). From November 2020 to January 2021, we could again measure SARS-CoV-2 antibody status in 4433 of the baseline participants (response 83%). Participants were offered a self-sampling kit to take a capillary blood sample (dry blood spot; DBS). Blood was analysed using the Elecsys® Anti-SARS-CoV-2 assay (Roche). Questionnaire information on socio-demographics and potential risk factors assessed at baseline was available for all participants. In addition, follow-up information on health-risk taking behaviour and number of personal contacts outside the household (N = 2768) as well as leisure time activities (N = 1263) were collected in summer 2020. RESULTS: Weighted and adjusted (for specificity and sensitivity) SARS-CoV-2 sero-prevalence at follow-up was 3.6% (95% CI 2.9-4.3%) as compared to 1.8% (95% CI 1.3-3.4%) at baseline. 91% of those tested positive at baseline were also antibody-positive at follow-up. While sero-prevalence increased from early November 2020 to January 2021, no indication of geospatial clustering across the city of Munich was found, although cases clustered within households. Taking baseline result and time to follow-up into account, men and participants in the age group 20-34 years were at the highest risk of sero-positivity. In the sensitivity analyses, differences in health-risk taking behaviour, number of personal contacts and leisure time activities partly explained these differences. CONCLUSION: The number of citizens in Munich with SARS-CoV-2 antibodies was still below 5% during the 2nd wave of the pandemic. Antibodies remained present in the majority of SARS-CoV-2 sero-positive baseline participants. Besides age and sex, potentially confounded by differences in behaviour, no major risk factors could be identified. Non-pharmaceutical public health measures are thus still important.

Prevalence and Risk Factors of Infection in the Representative COVID-19 Cohort Munich.

Given the large number of mild or asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 cases, only population-based studies can provide reliable estimates of the magnitude of the pandemic. We therefore aimed to assess the sero-prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in the Munich general population after the first wave of the pandemic. For this purpose, we drew a representative sample of 2994 private households and invited household members 14 years and older to complete questionnaires and to provide blood samples. SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity was defined as Roche N pan-Ig ≥ 0.4218. We adjusted the prevalence for the sampling design, sensitivity, and specificity. We investigated risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity and geospatial transmission patterns by generalized linear mixed models and permutation tests. Seropositivity for SARS-CoV-2-specific antibodies was 1.82% (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.28-2.37%) as compared to 0.46% PCR-positive cases officially registered in Munich. Loss of the sense of smell or taste was associated with seropositivity (odds ratio (OR) 47.4; 95% CI 7.2-307.0) and infections clustered within households. By this first population-based study on SARS-CoV-2 prevalence in a large German municipality not affected by a superspreading event, we could show that at least one in four cases in private households was reported and known to the health authorities. These results will help authorities to estimate the true burden of disease in the population and to take evidence-based decisions on public health measures.

Clinical outcomes in children and adolescents initiating antiretroviral therapy in decentralized healthcare settings in Zimbabwe.

INTRODUCTION: Decentralized HIV care for adults does not appear to compromise clinical outcomes. HIV care for children poses additional clinical and social complexities. We conducted a prospective cohort study to investigate clinical outcomes in children aged 6-15 years who registered for HIV care at seven primary healthcare clinics (PHCs) in Harare, Zimbabwe. METHODS: Participants were recruited between January 2013 and December 2014 and followed for 18 months. Rates of and reasons for mortality, hospitalization and unscheduled PHC attendances were ascertained. Cox proportional modelling was used to determine the hazard of death, unscheduled attendances and hospitalization. RESULTS: We recruited 385 participants, median age 11 years (IQR: 9-13) and 52% were female. The median CD4 count was 375 cells/mm3 (IQR: 215-599) and 77% commenced ART over the study period, with 64% of those who had viral load measured achieving an HIV viral load <400 copies/ml. At 18 months, 4% of those who started ART vs. 24% of those who remained ART-naïve were lost-to-follow-up (p < 0.001). Hospitalization and mortality rates were low (8.14/100 person-years (pyrs) and 2.86/100 pyrs, respectively). There was a high rate of unscheduled PHC attendances (34.94/100 pyrs), but only 7% resulted in hospitalization. Respiratory disease was the major cause of hospitalization, unscheduled attendances and death. CD4 count <350cells/mm3 was a risk factor for hospitalization (aHR 3.6 (95%CI 1.6-8.2)). CONCLUSIONS: Despite only 64% of participants achieving virological suppression, clinical outcomes were good and high rates of retention in care were observed. This demonstrates that in an era moving towards differentiated care in addition to implementation of universal treatment, decentralized HIV care for children is achievable. Interventions to improve adherence in this age-group are urgently needed.

Surgical intervention for mediastinal pancreatic pseudocysts. A case series and review of the literature.

CONTEXT: Development of mediastinal pancreatic pseudocysts is a rare complication of pancreatitis. There is currently no consensus on the optimal management of this condition, options for which include conservative management with somatostatin analogues, endoscopic drainage procedures and surgery. CASE REPORT: Here we present two patients with mediastinal pancreatic pseudocysts which were initially managed endoscopically. However, in both cases, this led to complications secondary to the endoscopic procedures, recurrence or non-resolution of symptoms, requiring surgical cystogastrostomy and/or cystojejunostomy. CONCLUSION: These cases suggest that surgery may be ultimately necessary for mediastinal pancreatic pseudocysts where endoscopic procedures might have a high likelihood of failure.