Pulse pressure modifies the association between diastolic blood pressure and decrease in kidney function: the Japan Specific Health Checkups Study.

Background: Unlike systolic blood pressure (SBP), the prognostic value of diastolic blood pressure (DBP) in kidney function has not been established. We hypothesized that pulse pressure (PP), which is associated with arteriosclerosis, would affect the prognostic value of DBP. Methods: This longitudinal study used data from the Japan Specific Health Checkups Study was conducted between 2008 and 2014. The participants were stratified into three PP subgroups (low PP ≤39, normal PP 40-59 and high PP ≥60 mmHg). The exposures of interest were SBP and DBP, and the association between SBP/DBP and kidney outcomes (30% decline in the estimated glomerular filtration rate from baseline) was examined in each PP subgroup using a Cox proportional hazards model. Results: Among 725 022 participants, 20 414 (2.8%) developed kidney outcomes during a median follow-up period of 34.6 months. Higher SBP was consistently associated with a higher incidence of kidney outcome in all PP subgroups. Although DBP had a positive linear association with the incidence of kidney outcome in low- and normal-PP subgroups, both lower (≤60 mmHg) and higher (≥101 mmHg) DBP were associated with a higher incidence of kidney outcome in the high-PP subgroup, with a U-shaped curve. Hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) of ≤60 mmHg (reference: 61-80 mmHg in normal-PP subgroup) and ≥101 mmHg were 1.26 (1.15-1.38) and 1.86 (1.62-2.14), respectively. Conclusions: In this large population-based cohort, DBP was differently associated with kidney outcome by PP level; lower DBP was significantly associated with a higher incidence of kidney outcome in the high-PP subgroup but not in the low- and normal-PP subgroups.

Development of a prognostic risk score to predict early mortality in incident elderly Japanese hemodialysis patients.

BACKGROUND: Information of short-term prognosis after hemodialysis (HD) introduction is important for elderly patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) and their families choosing a modality of renal replacement therapy. Therefore, we developed a risk score to predict early mortality in incident elderly Japanese hemodialysis patients. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We analyzed data of incident elderly HD patients from a nationwide cohort study of the Japanese Society for Dialysis Therapy Renal Data Registry (JRDR) to develop a prognostic risk score. Candidate risk factors for early death within 1 year was evaluated using multivariate logistic regression analysis. The risk score was developed by summing up points derived from parameter estimate values of independent risk factors. The association between risk score and early death was tested using Cox proportional hazards models. This risk score was validated twice by using an internal validation cohort derived from the JRDR and an external validation cohort collected for this study. RESULTS: Using the development cohort (n = 2,000), nine risk factors were retained in the risk score: older age (>85), yes = 2, no = 0; sex, male = 2, female = 0; lower body mass index (<20), yes = 2, no = 0; cancer, yes = 1, no = 0; dementia, yes = 3, no = 0; lower creatinine (<6.5 mg/dL), yes = 1, no = 0; lower albumin (<3.0 g/dL), yes = 3, no = 0; normal or high calcium (≥8.5 mg/dL), yes = 1, no = 0; and higher C reactive protein (>2.0 mg/dL), yes = 2, no = 0. In the internal and external validation cohorts (n = 739, 140, respectively), the medium- and high-risk groups (total score, 6 to 10 and 11 or more, respectively) showed significantly higher risk of early death than the low-risk group (total score, 0 to 5) (p<0.001). CONCLUSION: We developed a prognostic risk score predicting early death within 1 year in incident elderly Japanese HD patients, which may help detect elderly patients with a high-risk of early death after HD introduction.

Cigarette smoking and progression of kidney dysfunction: a longitudinal cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: Cigarette smoking is one of the most important life-modifiable risk factors for CVD events. The effect on CKD progression caused by smoking remained uncertain, while the effect on CVD had been established. METHOD: The study population included participants from the specific health check and specific health guidance, an annual health check-up for all inhabitants of Japan who were aged between 40 and 74 years. 149,260 subjects (male, 37.1%; female, 62.9%) were included in this analysis. RESULTS: The relationship between smoking status along with new-onset proteinuria and eGFR deterioration more than 15 mL/min/1.73 m2 was examined. Median observation periods were 1427 days [738, 1813] in males and 1437 days [729, 1816] in females. In male participants, the strongest factor upon kidney dysfunction was new-onset proteinuria (1.41 [1.31 1.51], P < 0.001). The second strongest factor on kidney deterioration was smoking (1.24 [1.16 1.31], P < 0.001). In female participants, strongest factor upon kidney dysfunction was smoking (1.27 [1.16-1.39], P < 0.001). The second strongest factor on kidney deterioration was new-onset proteinuria (1.26 [1.17 1.36], P < 0.001). To reveal the relationship of effects from new-onset proteinuria and smoking on the kidney function, the participants were divided into four groups with and without new-onset proteinuria and smoking. The group with both proteinuria and smoking had significantly worst renal prognosis (P for trend < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Large longitudinal observation study revealed smoking has an evil effect on the progression of CKD. This evil effect could be observed in CKD patients with proteinuria as well as in general population without new-onset proteinuria.

Living Arrangements Predict Frequent Alcohol Consumption Among University Students: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

PURPOSE: This study aimed to confirm the clinical impact of living arrangements on incidence of frequent alcohol consumption in university students. DESIGN: A retrospective cohort study. SETTING: A national university in Japan. SUBJECTS: 17,774 university students. MEASURES: The association between living arrangements on admission and the incidence of frequent alcohol consumption (≥4 days/week) was assessed using multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional-hazards models. RESULTS: Among 5,685, 692, and 5,151 male students living with family, living in the dormitory, and living alone, 5.0%, 6.2%, and 5.8% reported frequent alcohol consumption during the median observational period of 3.0 years, respectively. Living in the dormitory and living alone were identified as significant predictors of frequent alcohol consumption (multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios: 1.00 [reference], 1.39 [1.01-1.92], and 1.21 [1.03-1.42], respectively). On the contrary, living arrangements were not associated with the incidence of frequent alcohol consumption among of 6,091 female students, partly because of low incidence of frequent alcohol consumption (2.3%, 1.4%, and 2.6%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Living arrangements predicted frequent alcohol consumption among male university students, whereas not among female university students.

Association of secondhand smoke exposure and health-related lifestyle behaviors among male university employees in Japan.

Secondhand smoke (SHS) exposure causes various health problems associated with an unhealthy lifestyle. However, the lifestyles of individuals exposed to SHS have not been characterized extensively. Therefore, this cross-sectional study aimed to investigate the association between SHS exposure and lifestyle behaviors. The participants were 2379 healthy male employees at Osaka University who underwent health examinations. Physical and biochemical parameters and lifestyle behavior data were obtained from all the participants. Participants with SHS exposure had significantly higher body mass index, waist circumference, and serum levels of triglycerides and uric acid than that of those without SHS exposure. SHS exposure was significantly correlated with several lifestyle behaviors, including TV time, frequency of breakfast consumption and fried food consumption, vegetable and fruit intake, alcohol consumption frequency and daily alcohol intake, and smoking status. Thus, SHS exposure may be associated with an unhealthy lifestyle. The lifestyle behaviors of the smoke-excluded population were assessed further; however, SHS exposure was still associated with dietary and drinking habits. Since participants with SHS exposure are likely to have an unhealthy life and combined unhealthy lifestyle behaviors, the confounding effect of these factors should be considered when assessing the impact of SHS exposure on health.

Synergistic effect of proteinuria on dipstick hematuria-related decline in kidney function: The Japan Specific Health Checkups (J-SHC) Study.

BACKGROUND: The effect of isolated hematuria without proteinuria on kidney function decline, and the modification by the severity of proteinuria in general population are not fully elucidated. METHODS: Participants were included in the Japan Specific Health Checkups Study between 2008 and 2014. The exposure of interest was the frequency of dipstick hematuria during the observation. In each proteinuria frequency category (non-, occasional, persistent), hematuria-related decline in the eGFR rate was examined by analysis of covariance (ANCOVA). eGFR decline trajectories were also assessed using mixed-effects models. RESULTS: Among the 552,951 participants, 146,753 (26.5%) had hematuria, and 56,021 (10.1%) and 8,061 (1.5%) had occasional and persistent proteinuria, respectively. During the median follow-up of 3.0 years, annual change in eGFR decline in participants with hematuria was significantly faster than in those without hematuria (mean [95% confidence interval]: - 0.95 [- 0.98 to - 0.92] vs - 0.86 [- 0.87 to - 0.84] mL/min/1.73 m2/year; P < 0.001). In ANCOVA, the hematuria-related annual eGFR decline rate increased as proteinuria frequency categories increased (differences in annual eGFR decline rate between participants with and without hematuria: 0.08 [0.06 to 0.09] in participants with non-proteinuria category, 0.17 [0.15 to 0.18] in occasional proteinuria category, and 0.68 [0.65 to 0.71] mL/min/1.73 m2/year in persistent proteinuria category; P for interaction < 0.001). Similar results were obtained by the linear mixed-effect model. CONCLUSIONS: Proteinuria has a synergistic effect on dipstick hematuria-related decline in kidney function. Among the general population without proteinuria throughout the observational period, the "isolated hematuria"-related eGFR decline was statistically significant but the difference was small.

Weight Loss Improves Liver Dysfunction and Dipstick Proteinuria in Obesity: The Japan Specific Health Checkups Study.

Introduction: Obesity and inappropriate lifestyle is the major risk factors for liver dysfunction and proteinuria. Nevertheless, previous studies have not described the differential impacts of body weight changes and lifestyle modification on already developed liver dysfunction and proteinuria. Methods: The original cohort was 933,490 individuals from the Japanese general population. In this investigation, we included 36,256 obese individuals with elevated levels of aspartate aminotransferase and/or alanine aminotransferase (≥31 IU/L) or positive proteinuria (+/- or more) in both the first and second years. Outcomes were the first normalization of these data defined as improvement in liver dysfunction and proteinuria. Times to outcomes were assessed using the Cox proportional hazards modeling for -1 kg/m2/year change in body mass index (BMI) changes in exercise and alcohol intake. Results: The multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for incident improvement in liver dysfunction with BMI change -1.0 kg/m2/year was 1.07 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.05-1.09) in obesity and that with improved proteinuria was 1.04 (95%CI 1.02-1.07). Compared to subjects without exercise habits, subjects who gained exercise habits exhibited a higher rate of improvement in liver dysfunction (HR 1.08; 95%CI 1.01-1.15) but not in proteinuria (HR 0.98; 95%CI 0.88-1.08). Compared to subjects with continuous alcohol intake habits, subjects who quit alcohol intake also showed a higher rate of improvement in liver dysfunction (HR 1.20; 95%CI 1.09-1.32). Conclusions: This study suggested that weight loss greater than 1 kg/m2/year improves liver dysfunction and dipstick proteinuria in obesity. Particularly, liver dysfunction can be remedied by acquiring an exercise habit and quitting alcohol intake.

Trace proteinuria detected via dipstick test is associated with kidney function decline and new-onset overt proteinuria: the Japan Specific Health Checkups (J-SHC) Study.

BACKGROUND: Microalbuminuria is associated with mortality, cardiovascular disease, and end-stage kidney disease. The association between trace proteinuria (detected via dipstick test) and kidney outcomes is unclear. METHODS: This nationwide longitudinal study used data from the Japan Specific Health Checkups Study conducted during 2008-2014. The frequency of trace proteinuria (detected via dipstick test) during first two visits was used as an exposure variable (TrUP 0/2, no trace proteinuria; TrUP 1/2, detected once; TrUP 2/2, detected twice), and kidney outcomes were evaluated. The association between the frequency of trace proteinuria and incidence of 1.5-fold increase in serum creatinine levels and overt proteinuria was analyzed using Cox regression analysis. Trajectories of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) were compared using a mixed-effect model. RESULTS: Among 306,317 participants, 3188 and 17,461 developed a 1.5-fold increase in serum creatinine levels and new-onset overt proteinuria, respectively, during the median follow-up period of 36.2 months. The adjusted hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for 1.5-fold increase in serum creatinine level in the TrUP 1/2 and TrUP 2/2 groups, compared to TrUP 0/2 group, were 1.23 (1.07-1.42) and 1.39 (1.01-1.92), respectively, and the adjusted HR (95% CI) for overt proteinuria were 2.94 (2.83-3.06) and 5.14 (4.80-5.51), respectively. The eGFR decline rates in the TrUP 1/2 and TrUP 2/2 groups were higher than that in the TrUP 0/2 group (p for interaction < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Trace proteinuria (detected via dipstick test) was associated with subsequent kidney function decline and overt proteinuria in the general population.

Prevalence of undiagnosed stage 3 chronic kidney disease in France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the USA: results from the multinational observational REVEAL-CKD study.

OBJECTIVES: REVEAL-CKD aims to estimate the prevalence of, and factors associated with, undiagnosed stage 3 chronic kidney disease (CKD). DESIGN: Multinational, observational study. SETTING: Data from six country-specific electronic medical records and/or insurance claims databases from five countries (France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the USA [two databases]). PARTICIPANTS: Eligible participants (≥18 years old) had ≥2 consecutive estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) measurements (calculated from serum creatinine values, sex and age) taken from 2015 onwards that were indicative of stage 3 CKD (≥30 and <60 mL/min/1.73 m2). Undiagnosed cases lacked an International Classification of Diseases 9/10 diagnosis code for CKD (any stage) any time before, and up to 6 months after, the second qualifying eGFR measurement (study index). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was point prevalence of undiagnosed stage 3 CKD. Time to diagnosis was assessed using the Kaplan-Meier approach. Factors associated with lacking a CKD diagnosis and risk of diagnostic delay were assessed using logistic regression adjusted for baseline covariates. RESULTS: The prevalence of undiagnosed stage 3 CKD was 95.5% (19 120/20 012 patients) in France, 84.3% (22 557/26 767) in Germany, 77.0% (50 547/65 676) in Italy, 92.1% (83 693/90 902) in Japan, 61.6% (13 845/22 470) in the US Explorys Linked Claims and Electronic Medical Records Data database and 64.3% (161 254/250 879) in the US TriNetX database. The prevalence of undiagnosed CKD increased with age. Factors associated with undiagnosed CKD were female sex (vs male, range of odds ratios across countries: 1.29-1.77), stage 3a CKD (vs 3b, 1.81-3.66), no medical history (vs a history) of diabetes (1.26-2.77) or hypertension (1.35-1.78). CONCLUSIONS: There are substantial opportunities to improve stage 3 CKD diagnosis, particularly in female patients and older patients. The low diagnosis rates in patients with comorbidities that put them at risk of disease progression and complications require attention. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT04847531.

The effect of lifestyle on the mortality associated with respiratory diseases in the general population.

Lifestyle factors, including smoking habit, diet, and physical activity, affect the prognosis of various diseases. We elucidated the effect of lifestyle factors and health status on deaths from respiratory diseases in the general Japanese population using data from a community health examination database. Data of the nationwide screening program of the Specific Health Check-up and Guidance System (Tokutei-Kenshin), targeting the general population in Japan, from 2008 to 2010 were analyzed. The underlying causes of death were coded according to the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-10. The hazard ratios of the incidence of mortality associated with respiratory disease were estimated using the Cox regression model. This study included 664,926 participants aged 40-74 years, who were followed up for 7 years. There were 8051 deaths, including 1263 (15.69%) deaths from respiratory diseases. The independent risk factors of mortality associated with respiratory diseases were male sex, older age, low body mass index, no exercise habit, slow walking speed, no drinking habit, smoking history, history of cerebrovascular diseases, high hemoglobin A1c and uric acid levels, low low-density lipoprotein cholesterol level, and proteinuria. Aging and decline of physical activity are significant risk factors for mortality associated with respiratory diseases, regardless of the smoking status.

Height loss is associated with decreased kidney function: The Japan Specific Health Checkups (J-SHC) Study.

AIM: Height loss that occurs with aging is a common phenomenon associated with musculoskeletal abnormalities, such as osteoporosis and sarcopenia. Notably, such height loss is also associated with poor outcomes, including cardiovascular disease and mortality. In this study, we investigated the relationship between height loss and kidney outcome. METHODS: This longitudinal study includes data from the Japan Specific Health Checkups Study from 2008 to 2014. Height loss was estimated using the first three visits (visits 1-3), and kidney outcomes were evaluated using data from the following visits (visit 3 to the last visit). The annual height change for each participant was estimated using mixed-effects model, and participants were divided into five groups according to the quintile of the rate. The association between height change and the incidence of 1.5-fold increase in serum creatinine level from baseline was analyzed using Cox regression analysis. The decline rates of estimated glomerular filtration rate among the groups were compared using a mixed-effects model. RESULTS: In total, 187 682 participants were included in the analyses. The median rate of height change was -0.11 cm/year. The adjusted hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) for 1.5-fold increase in serum creatinine level in participants with the steepest category of height decline (Q1; Quintile 1) was 1.45 (1.26-1.67) compared with the reference (Q4; Quintile 4). The decline of the estimated glomerular filtration rate in Q1 (-1.25 mL/min/1.73 m2 /year) was significantly higher than that of the reference: Q4 (-0.92 mL/min/1.73 m2 /year) (P for interaction <0.001). CONCLUSION: Height loss is associated with a rapid decline in kidney function. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2023; 23: 282-288.

Alcohol Consumption and a Decline in Glomerular Filtration Rate: The Japan Specific Health Checkups Study.

Previous studies have reported conflicting results on the clinical impact of alcohol consumption on the glomerular filtration rate (GFR). This retrospective cohort study aimed to assess the dose-dependent association between alcohol consumption and the slope of the estimated GFR (eGFR) in 304,929 participants aged 40-74 years who underwent annual health checkups in Japan between April 2008 and March 2011. The association between the baseline alcohol consumption and eGFR slope during the median observational period of 1.9 years was assessed using linear mixed-effects models with the random intercept and random slope of time adjusting for clinically relevant factors. In men, rare drinkers and daily drinkers with alcohol consumptions of ≥60 g/day had a significantly larger decline in eGFR than occasional drinkers (difference in multivariable-adjusted eGFR slope with 95% confidence interval (mL/min/1.73 m2/year) of rare, occasional, and daily drinkers with ≤19, 20-39, 40-59, and ≥60 g/day: -0.33 [-0.57, -0.09], 0.00 [reference], -0.06 [-0.39, 0.26], -0.16 [-0.43, 0.12], -0.08 [-0.47, 0.30], and -0.79 [-1.40, -0.17], respectively). In women, only rare drinkers were associated with lower eGFR slopes than occasional drinkers. In conclusion, alcohol consumption was associated with the eGFR slope in an inverse U-shaped fashion in men but not in women.

Association between height loss and mortality in the general population.

Height loss is caused by osteoporosis, vertebral fractures, disc reduction, postural changes, and kyphosis. Marked long-term height loss is reportedly associated with cardiovascular disease and mortality in the elderly. The present study investigated the relationship between short-term height loss and the risk of mortality using the longitudinal cohort data of the Japan Specific Health Checkup Study (J-SHC). Included individuals were aged 40 years or older and received periodic health checkups in 2008 and 2010. The exposure of interest was height loss over the 2 years, and the outcome was all-cause mortality over subsequent follow up. Cox proportional hazard models were used to examine the association between height loss and all-cause mortality. Of the 222,392 individuals (88,285 men, 134,107 women) included in this study, 1436 died during the observation period (mean 4.8 ± 1.1 years). The subjects were divided into two groups based on a cut-off value of height loss of 0.5 cm over 2 years. The adjusted hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) was 1.26 (1.13-1.41) for exposure to height loss ≥ 0.5 cm compared to height loss < 0.5 cm. Height loss ≥ 0.5 cm correlated significantly with an increased risk of mortality compared to height loss < 0.5 cm in both men and women. Even a small decrease in height over 2 years was associated with the risk of all-cause mortality and might be a helpful marker for stratifying mortality risk.

Living alone and prediction of weight gain and overweight/obesity in university students: a retrospective cohort study.

Objective:  To assess the clinical impact of living alone on weight gain in university students. Participants: This retrospective cohort study included 17540 male and 8854 female university students admitted to a national university in Japan. Methods: An association between living arrangement and the incidence of weight gain ≥10% and overweight/obesity (body mass index (BMI) ≥25 kg/m2) was assessed using multivariable-adjusted Poisson regression models. Results: Weight gain was observed in 1889 (10.8%) male and 1516 (17.1%) female students during 3.0 and 2.9 years of the mean observational period, respectively. Living alone was identified as a significant predictor of weight gain (adjusted incidence rate ratio of living alone vs. living with family: 1.24 [1.13-1.36] and 1.76 [1.58-1.95] in male and female students, respectively) and was also as a predictor of overweight/obesity. Conclusions: University students living alone were at a significantly higher risk of weight gain and overweight/obesity than those living with family.

A Body Shape Index and Aortic Disease-Related Mortality in Japanese General Population.

AIMS: Aortic diseases (ADs), including aortic dissection, aortic aneurysm, and aortic rupture, are fatal, with extremely high mortality rates. A body shape index (ABSI), an anthropometric measure calculated as waist circumference adjusted by height and weight, improves the predictive capacity for mortality. However, whether ABSI is a risk factor for AD-related mortality in the general population remains unclear. METHODS: We used a nationwide database of 630,842 individuals (aged 40-75 years) who participated in the annual "Specific Health Check and Guidance in Japan" between 2008 and 2010. RESULTS: During the follow-up period of 3.8 years, 159 AD-related deaths occurred, including 105 aortic dissections and 54 aortic aneurysm ruptures. The subjects were divided into three groups based on ABSI tertiles. Kaplan-Meier analysis demonstrated that the 3rd tertile (with the highest ABSI) had the greatest risk among the three groups. Multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression analysis demonstrated that ABSI was significantly associated with AD-related death after adjusting for confounding risk factors. Neither waist circumference nor body mass index consistently predicted AD-related death in the multivariate model. The prediction capacity was significantly improved by the addition of ABSI to the confounding risk factors. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrated for the first time that ABSI, a surrogate marker for abdominal visceral fat tissue, was associated with AD-related deaths in the general population, suggesting the importance of central adiposity in the development of AD.

Elevated Crude Mortality in Obese Chronic Kidney Disease Patients with Loss of Exercise Habit: A Cohort Study of the Japanese General Population.

Objective The relationship between obesity and risk of death in chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients remains controversial. In addition, no clear evidence has been accumulated regarding whether or not exercise improves mortality in CKD patients. Methods The original cohort was based on a Japanese general population of 685,889 people from 40 to 74 years old who had undergone annual specific health checkups. The number of all-cause deaths during follow-up (mean, 4.7 years) in this study was 1,490. Information on walking and exercise habits was obtained by questionnaires. The study population was divided into 4 categories by the combination of CKD and obesity [body mass index (BMI) ≥25.0 kg/m2]. Changes in the BMI and walking and exercise habits were determined by results for the first year and following year. Results Obese CKD patients with weight gain (BMI increase by more than +1.0 kg/m2/year) showed a higher crude mortality (1.32%) than those with a stable BMI (within ±1.0 kg/m2/year; 0.69%). In the obese CKD population, mortality was higher with loss of exercise habits (0.96%) than in those continuously maintaining exercise habits (0.52%). The age- and sex-adjusted hazard ratio for all-cause death was 2.23 in the group with weight gain compared to the group with stable weight (p<0.01) and 2.08 in the group with loss of exercise habits compared to those who maintained exercise habits (p<0.01). Conclusion This observational cohort study suggested that loss of exercise habits as well as weight gain of more than 1 kg/m2/year might worsen all-cause mortality in the obese CKD population.

Gradient boosting decision tree becomes more reliable than logistic regression in predicting probability for diabetes with big data.

We sought to verify the reliability of machine learning (ML) in developing diabetes prediction models by utilizing big data. To this end, we compared the reliability of gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT) and logistic regression (LR) models using data obtained from the Kokuho-database of the Osaka prefecture, Japan. To develop the models, we focused on 16 predictors from health checkup data from April 2013 to December 2014. A total of 277,651 eligible participants were studied. The prediction models were developed using a light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM), which is an effective GBDT implementation algorithm, and LR. Their reliabilities were measured based on expected calibration error (ECE), negative log-likelihood (Logloss), and reliability diagrams. Similarly, their classification accuracies were measured in the area under the curve (AUC). We further analyzed their reliabilities while changing the sample size for training. Among the 277,651 participants, 15,900 (7978 males and 7922 females) were newly diagnosed with diabetes within 3 years. LightGBM (LR) achieved an ECE of 0.0018 ± 0.00033 (0.0048 ± 0.00058), a Logloss of 0.167 ± 0.00062 (0.172 ± 0.00090), and an AUC of 0.844 ± 0.0025 (0.826 ± 0.0035). From sample size analysis, the reliability of LightGBM became higher than LR when the sample size increased more than [Formula: see text]. Thus, we confirmed that GBDT provides a more reliable model than that of LR in the development of diabetes prediction models using big data. ML could potentially produce a highly reliable diabetes prediction model, a helpful tool for improving lifestyle and preventing diabetes.

Health-related behavioral changes and incidence of chronic kidney disease: The Japan Specific Health Checkups (J-SHC) Study.

The transtheoretical model (TTM) is a commonly used model of health-related behavioral change. However, the practical effect of using this model for chronic kidney disease (CKD) self-management remains unclear. This study aimed to investigate the association between stages of change for lifestyle behavior and the incidence of CKD in the general Japanese population. A retrospective cohort study was conducted among 178,780 non-CKD participants aged 40-74 years who underwent annual health check-ups for two consecutive years between 2008 and 2009. Health behavior change was determined using questionnaires based on the TTM, which consists of five stages of change (precontemplation, contemplation, preparation, action, and maintenance). The exposure of interest was the change in stages between two years. Participants were categorized into 3 groups 'improved', 'unchanged', or 'deteriorated'. The association between the change in stages and the incidence of CKD was examined using logistic regression analysis. After one year of follow-up, 20.0% of participants developed CKD. Participants in the deteriorated group showed a significantly higher risk of CKD incidence than in the improved group. Promoting the stage of change for healthy lifestyle behaviors evaluated by the TTM was associated with a risk reduction for the incidence of CKD.