Mortality and transmissibility patterns of the 1957 influenza pandemic in Maricopa County, Arizona.

BACKGROUND: While prior studies have quantified the mortality burden of the 1957 H2N2 influenza pandemic at broad geographic regions in the United States, little is known about the pandemic impact at a local level. Here we focus on analyzing the transmissibility and mortality burden of this pandemic in Arizona, a setting where the dry climate was promoted as reducing respiratory illness transmission yet tuberculosis prevalence was high. METHODS: Using archival death certificates from 1954 to 1961, we quantified the age-specific seasonal patterns, excess-mortality rates, and transmissibility patterns of the 1957 H2N2 pandemic in Maricopa County, Arizona. By applying cyclical Serfling linear regression models to weekly mortality rates, the excess-mortality rates due to respiratory and all-causes were estimated for each age group during the pandemic period. The reproduction number was quantified from weekly data using a simple growth rate method and assumed generation intervals of 3 and 4 days. Local newspaper articles published during 1957-1958 were also examined. RESULTS: Excess-mortality rates varied between waves, age groups, and causes of death, but overall remained low. From October 1959-June 1960, the most severe wave of the pandemic, the absolute excess-mortality rate based on respiratory deaths per 10,000 population was 16.59 in the elderly (≥65 years). All other age groups exhibit very low excess-mortality and the typical U-shaped age-pattern was absent. However, the standardized mortality ratio was greatest (4.06) among children and young adolescents (5-14 years) from October 1957-March 1958, based on mortality rates of respiratory deaths. Transmissibility was greatest during the same 1957-1958 period, when the mean reproduction number was estimated at 1.08-1.11, assuming 3- or 4-day generation intervals with exponential or fixed distributions. CONCLUSIONS: Maricopa County exhibited very low mortality impact associated with the 1957 influenza pandemic. Understanding the relatively low excess-mortality rates and transmissibility in Maricopa County during this historic pandemic may help public health officials prepare for and mitigate future outbreaks of influenza.

Severe Traumatic Brain Injury: A Case Report.

BACKGROUND: Traumatic brain injury remains a challenging and complicated disease process to care for, despite the advance of technology used to monitor and guide treatment. Currently, the mainstay of treatment is aimed at limiting secondary brain injury, with the help of multiple specialties in a critical care setting. Prognosis after TBI is often even more challenging than the treatment itself, although there are various exam and imaging findings that are associated with poor outcome. These findings are important because they can be used to guide families and loved ones when making decisions about goals of care. CASE REPORT: In this case report, we demonstrate the unanticipated recovery of a 28-year-old male patient who presented with a severe traumatic brain injury after being in a motorcycle accident without wearing a helmet. He presented with several exam and imaging findings that are statistically associated with increased mortality and morbidity. CONCLUSIONS: The care of severe traumatic brain injuries is challenging and dynamic. This case highlights the unexpected recovery of a patient and serves as a reminder that there is variability among patients.