Methodological considerations in injury burden of disease studies across Europe: a systematic literature review.

BACKGROUND: Calculating the disease burden due to injury is complex, as it requires many methodological choices. Until now, an overview of the methodological design choices that have been made in burden of disease (BoD) studies in injury populations is not available. The aim of this systematic literature review was to identify existing injury BoD studies undertaken across Europe and to comprehensively review the methodological design choices and assumption parameters that have been made to calculate years of life lost (YLL) and years lived with disability (YLD) in these studies. METHODS: We searched EMBASE, MEDLINE, Cochrane Central, Google Scholar, and Web of Science, and the grey literature supplemented by handsearching, for BoD studies. We included injury BoD studies that quantified the BoD expressed in YLL, YLD, and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) in countries within the European Region between early-1990 and mid-2021. RESULTS: We retrieved 2,914 results of which 48 performed an injury-specific BoD assessment. Single-country independent and Global Burden of Disease (GBD)-linked injury BoD studies were performed in 11 European countries. Approximately 79% of injury BoD studies reported the BoD by external cause-of-injury. Most independent studies used the incidence-based approach to calculate YLDs. About half of the injury disease burden studies applied disability weights (DWs) developed by the GBD study. Almost all independent injury studies have determined YLL using national life tables. CONCLUSIONS: Considerable methodological variation across independent injury BoD assessments was observed; differences were mainly apparent in the design choices and assumption parameters towards injury YLD calculations, implementation of DWs, and the choice of life table for YLL calculations. Development and use of guidelines for performing and reporting of injury BoD studies is crucial to enhance transparency and comparability of injury BoD estimates across Europe and beyond.

Effect of maternal positioning during cardiopulmonary resuscitation: a systematic review and meta-analyses.

BACKGROUND: Although rare, cardiac arrest during pregnancy is the leading cause of maternal death. Recently, its incidence has been increasing worldwide because more pregnant women have risk factors. The provision of early, high-quality cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) plays a major role in the increased likelihood of survival; therefore, it is important for clinicians to know how to manage it. Due to the aortocaval compression caused by the gravid uterus, clinical guidelines often emphasise the importance of maternal positioning during CPR, but there has been little evidence regarding which position is most effective. METHODS: We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, MEDLINE, Embase, and OpenGrey (updated on April 3, 2021). We included clinical trials and observational studies with reported outcomes related to successful resuscitations. RESULTS: We included eight studies from the 1,490 screened. The eight studies were simulation-based, crossover trials that examine the quality of chest compressions. No data were available about the survival rates of mothers or foetuses/neonates. The meta-analyses showed that resuscitation of pregnant women in the 27°-30° left-lateral tilt position resulted in lower quality chest compressions. The difference is an 19% and 9% reduction in correct compression depth rate and correct hand position rate, respectively, compared with resuscitations in the supine position. Inexperienced clinicians find it difficult to perform chest compressions in the left-lateral tilt position. CONCLUSIONS: Given that manual left uterine displacement allows the patient to remain supine, the resuscitation of women in the supine position using manual left uterine displacement should continue to be supported. Further research is needed to fill knowledge gaps regarding the effects of maternal positioning on clinical outcomes, such as survival rates following maternal cardiac arrest.

Effectiveness of Trauma-Focused Psychological Therapies for Treating Post-traumatic Stress Disorder Symptoms in Women Following Childbirth: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Background: Approximately 3% of women in community samples develop posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) after childbirth. Higher prevalence rates are reported for high risk samples. Postpartum PTSD can adversely affect women's wellbeing, mother-infant relationships and child development. This study aims to examine the effectiveness of trauma-focused psychological interventions (TFPT), for postnatal women. Methods: We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis including all clinical trials which reported post-traumatic stress symptoms for both the intervention and control groups or at least two time-points, pre- and post-intervention. We searched four databases: CENTRAL, MEDLINE, PsycINFO, and OpenGrey. Screening of search results, data extraction, and risk of bias assessment were undertaken independently by two reviewers. Results: Eleven studies, reported in 12 papers, involving 2,677 postnatal women were included. All were RCTs, bar one case series. Interventions varied in modality, duration and intensity, and included exposure therapy, trauma-focused cognitive behavioral therapy, eye movement desensitization and reprocessing and other psychological approaches. Participants had experienced uncomplicated births, emergency cesarean sections and/or preterm births. Results suggest that TFPT are effective for reducing PTSD symptoms in the short term (up to 3 months postpartum [4 RCTs, n = 301, SMD = -0.50, 95% CI = -0.73 to -0.27]), and medium term (i.e., 3-6 months postpartum [2 RCTs, n = 174, SMD = -1.87, 95% CI = -2.60 to -1.13]). However, there is no robust evidence to suggest whether TFPT can also improve women's recovery from clinically significant PTSD symptoms. Conclusion: Further larger studies, distinguishing between low and high risk groups, and with adequate follow-up, are needed to establish which TFPT are most effective and acceptable for treating postnatal PTSD.

Efficacy and safety of pertussis vaccination for pregnant women - a systematic review of randomised controlled trials and observational studies.

BACKGROUND: Worldwide, pertussis remains a major health problem among children. During the recent outbreaks of pertussis, maternal antenatal immunisation was introduced in several industrial countries. This systematic review aimed to synthesize evidence for the efficacy and safety of the pertussis vaccination that was given to pregnant women to protect infants from pertussis infection. METHODS: We searched literature in the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Medline, Embase, and OpenGrey between inception of the various databases and 16 May 2016. The search terms included 'pertussis', 'whooping cough', 'pertussis vaccine,' 'tetanus, diphtheria and pertussis vaccines' and 'pregnancy' and 'perinatal'. RESULTS: We included 15 articles in this review, which represented 12 study populations, involving a total of 203,835 mother-infant pairs from the US, the UK, Belgium, Israel, and Vietnam. Of the included studies, there were two randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and the rest were observational studies. Existing evidence suggests that vaccinations administered during 19-37 weeks of gestation are associated with significantly increased antibody levels in the blood of both mothers and their newborns at birth compared to placebo or no vaccination. However, there is a lack of robust evidence to suggest whether these increased antibodies can also reduce the incidence of pertussis (one RCT, n = 48, no incidence in either group) and pertussis-related severe complications (one observational study) or mortality (no study) in infants. Meanwhile, there is no evidence of increased risk of serious complications such as stillbirth (e.g. one RCT, n = 103, RR = 0, meaning no case in the vaccine group), or preterm birth (two RCTs, n = 151, RR = 0.86, 95%CI: 0.14-5.21) related to administration of the vaccine during pregnancy. CONCLUSION: Given that pertussis infection is increasing in many countries and that newborn babies are at greatest risk of developing severe complications from pertussis, maternal vaccination in the later stages of pregnancy should continue to be supported while further research should fill knowledge gaps and strengthen evidence of its efficacy and safety.

A cluster-randomized trial to reduce caesarean delivery rates in Quebec: cost-effectiveness analysis.

BACKGROUND: Widespread increases in caesarean section (CS) rates have sparked concerns about risks to mothers and infants and rising healthcare costs. A multicentre, two-arm, cluster-randomized trial in Quebec, Canada assessed whether an audit and feedback intervention targeting health professionals would reduce CS rates for pregnant women compared to usual care, and concluded that it reduced CS rates without adverse effects on maternal or neonatal health. The effect was statistically significant but clinically small. We assessed cost-effectiveness to inform scale-up decisions. METHODS: A prospective economic evaluation was undertaken using individual patient data from the Quality of Care, Obstetrics Risk Management, and Mode of Delivery (QUARISMA) trial (April 2008 to October 2011). Analyses took a healthcare payer perspective. The time horizon captured hospital-based costs and clinical events for mothers and neonates from labour onset to 3 months postpartum. Resource use was identified and measured from patient charts and valued using standardized government sources. We estimated the changes in CS rates and costs for the intervention group (versus controls) between the baseline and post-intervention periods. We examined heterogeneity between clinical subgroups of high-risk versus low-risk pregnancies and estimated the joint uncertainty in cost-effectiveness over 20,000 trial simulations. We decomposed costs to identify drivers of change. RESULTS: The intervention group experienced per-patient reductions of 0.005 CS (95% confidence interval (CI): -0.015 to 0.004, P = 0.09) and $180 (95% CI: -$277 to - $83, P < 0.001). Women with low-risk pregnancies experienced statistically significant reductions in CS rates and costs; changes for the high-risk subgroup were not significant. The intervention was "dominant" (effective in reducing CS and less costly than usual care) in 86.08% of simulations. It reduced costs in 99.99% of simulations. Cost reductions were driven by lower rates of neonatal complications in the intervention group (-$190, 95% CI: -$255 to - $125, P < 0.001). Given 88,000 annual provincial births, a similar intervention could save $15.8 million (range: $7.3 to $24.4 million) in Quebec annually. CONCLUSIONS: From a healthcare payer perspective, a multifaceted intervention involving audits and feedback resulted in a small reduction in caesarean deliveries and important cost savings. Cost reductions are consistent with improved quality of care in intervention group hospitals. TRIAL REGISTRATION: International Clinical Trials Registry Platform, ISRCTN95086407 . Registered on 23 October 2007.

Effectiveness of trauma-focused psychological therapies compared to usual postnatal care for treating post-traumatic stress symptoms in women following traumatic birth: a systematic review protocol.

INTRODUCTION: Maternal mental health has been largely neglected in the literature. Women, however, may be vulnerable to developing post-traumatic stress symptoms or post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), following traumatic birth. In turn, this may affect their capacity for child rearing and ability to form a secure bond with their baby and impact on the wider family. Trauma-focused psychological therapies (TFPT) are widely regarded as effective and acceptable interventions for PTSD in general and clinical populations. Relatively little is known about the effectiveness of TFPT for women postpartum who have post-traumatic stress symptoms. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We will conduct a review to assess the effectiveness of TFPT, compared with usual postpartum care, as a treatment for post-traumatic stress symptoms or PTSD for women following traumatic birth. Using a priori search criteria, we will search for randomised controlled trials (RCT) in four databases: Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), MEDLINE, PsycINFO and OpenGrey. We will use search terms that relate to the population, TFPT and comparators. Screening of search results and data extraction will be undertaken by two reviewers, independently. Risk of bias will be assessed in RCTs which meet the review criteria. Data will be analysed using the following methods, as appropriate: narrative synthesis; meta-analysis; subgroup analysis and meta-regression. DISSEMINATION AND ETHICS: As this work comprises a synthesis of existing studies, ethical approvals are not required. Results will be disseminated at conferences and in publications.

Multilevel models for cost-effectiveness analyses that use cluster randomised trial data: An approach to model choice.

Multilevel models provide a flexible modelling framework for cost-effectiveness analyses that use cluster randomised trial data. However, there is a lack of guidance on how to choose the most appropriate multilevel models. This paper illustrates an approach for deciding what level of model complexity is warranted; in particular how best to accommodate complex variance-covariance structures, right-skewed costs and missing data. Our proposed models differ according to whether or not they allow individual-level variances and correlations to differ across treatment arms or clusters and by the assumed cost distribution (Normal, Gamma, Inverse Gaussian). The models are fitted by Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Our approach to model choice is based on four main criteria: the characteristics of the data, model pre-specification informed by the previous literature, diagnostic plots and assessment of model appropriateness. This is illustrated by re-analysing a previous cost-effectiveness analysis that uses data from a cluster randomised trial. We find that the most useful criterion for model choice was the deviance information criterion, which distinguishes amongst models with alternative variance-covariance structures, as well as between those with different cost distributions. This strategy for model choice can help cost-effectiveness analyses provide reliable inferences for policy-making when using cluster trials, including those with missing data.

Risk patterns in drug safety study using relative times by accelerated failure time models when proportional hazards assumption is questionable: an illustrative case study of cancer risk of patients on glucose-lowering therapies.

Observational drug safety studies may be susceptible to confounding or protopathic bias. This bias may cause a spurious relationship between drug exposure and adverse side effect when none exists and may lead to unwarranted safety alerts. The spurious relationship may manifest itself through substantially different risk levels between exposure groups at the start of follow-up when exposure is deemed too short to have any plausible biological effect of the drug. The restrictive proportional hazards assumption with its arbitrary choice of baseline hazard function renders the commonly used Cox proportional hazards model of limited use for revealing such potential bias. We demonstrate a fully parametric approach using accelerated failure time models with an illustrative safety study of glucose-lowering therapies and show that its results are comparable against other methods that allow time-varying exposure effects. Our approach includes a wide variety of models that are based on the flexible generalized gamma distribution and allows direct comparisons of estimated hazard functions following different exposure-specific distributions of survival times. This approach lends itself to two alternative metrics, namely relative times and difference in times to event, allowing physicians more ways to communicate patient's prognosis without invoking the concept of risks, which some may find hard to grasp. In our illustrative case study, substantial differences in cancer risks at drug initiation followed by a gradual reduction towards null were found. This evidence is compatible with the presence of protopathic bias, in which undiagnosed symptoms of cancer lead to switches in diabetes medication.

Prediction of cardiovascular risk using Framingham, ASSIGN and QRISK2: how well do they predict individual rather than population risk?

BACKGROUND: The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of risk scores (Framingham, Assign and QRISK2) in predicting high cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in individuals rather than populations. METHODS AND FINDINGS: This study included 1.8 million persons without CVD and prior statin prescribing using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. This contains electronic medical records of the general population registered with a UK general practice. Individual CVD risks were estimated using competing risk regression models. Individual differences in the 10-year CVD risks as predicted by risk scores and competing risk models were estimated; the population was divided into 20 subgroups based on predicted risk. CVD outcomes occurred in 69,870 persons. In the subgroup with lowest risks, risk predictions by QRISK2 were similar to individual risks predicted using our competing risk model (99.9% of people had differences of less than 2%); in the subgroup with highest risks, risk predictions varied greatly (only 13.3% of people had differences of less than 2%). Larger deviations between QRISK2 and our individual predicted risks occurred with calendar year, different ethnicities, diabetes mellitus and number of records for medical events in the electronic health records in the year before the index date. A QRISK2 estimate of low 10-year CVD risk (<15%) was confirmed by Framingham, ASSIGN and our individual predicted risks in 89.8% while an estimate of high 10-year CVD risk (≥ 20%) was confirmed in only 48.6% of people. The majority of cases occurred in people who had predicted 10-year CVD risk of less than 20%. CONCLUSIONS: Application of existing CVD risk scores may result in considerable misclassification of high risk status. Current practice to use a constant threshold level for intervention for all patients, together with the use of different scoring methods, may inadvertently create an arbitrary classification of high CVD risk.

The efficiency of cardiovascular risk assessment: do the right patients get statin treatment?

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate targeting of statin prescribing for primary prevention to those with high cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. DESIGN: Two cohort studies including the general population and initiators of statins aged 35-74 years. SETTING: UK primary care records in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. PATIENTS: 3.8 million general population patients and 300 914 statin users. INTERVENTION: Statin prescribing. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Statin prescribing by CVD risk; observed 5-year CVD risks; variability between practices. RESULTS: Statin prescribing increased substantially over time to patients with high 10-year CVD risk (≥ 20%): 7.0% of these received a statin prior to 2007, and 30.4% in 2007 onwards. Prescribing to patients with low risk (<15%) also increased (from 1.9% to 5.0%). Only about half the patients initiating statin treatment were high risk according to CVD risk score. The 5-year CVD risks, as observed during statin treatment, reduced over calendar time (from 17.0% to 7.1%). There was a large variation between general practices in the percentage of high-risk patients prescribed a statin in 2007 onwards, ranging from 8.2% to 61.5%. For low-risk patients, these varied from 2.1% to 29.1%. CONCLUSIONS: There appeared to be substantive overuse in low CVD risk and underuse in high CVD risk (600 000 and 850 000 patients, respectively, in the UK since 2007). There is wide variation between practices in statin prescribing to patients at high CVD risk. There is a clear need for randomised trials for the best strategy to target statin treatment and manage CVD risk for primary prevention.

Methods for covariate adjustment in cost-effectiveness analysis that use cluster randomised trials.

Statistical methods have been developed for cost-effectiveness analyses of cluster randomised trials (CRTs) where baseline covariates are balanced. However, CRTs may show systematic differences in individual and cluster-level covariates between the treatment groups. This paper presents three methods to adjust for imbalances in observed covariates: seemingly unrelated regression with a robust standard error, a 'two-stage' bootstrap approach combined with seemingly unrelated regression and multilevel models. We consider the methods in a cost-effectiveness analysis of a CRT with covariate imbalance, unequal cluster sizes and a prognostic relationship that varied by treatment group. The cost-effectiveness results differed according to the approach for covariate adjustment. A simulation study then assessed the relative performance of methods for addressing systematic imbalance in baseline covariates. The simulations extended the case study and considered scenarios with different levels of confounding, cluster size variation and few clusters. Performance was reported as bias, root mean squared error and CI coverage of the incremental net benefit. Even with low levels of confounding, unadjusted methods were biased, but all adjusted methods were unbiased. Multilevel models performed well across all settings, and unlike the other methods, reported CI coverage close to nominal levels even with few clusters of unequal sizes.

Developing appropriate methods for cost-effectiveness analysis of cluster randomized trials.

AIM: Cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) may use data from cluster randomized trials (CRTs), where the unit of randomization is the cluster, not the individual. However, most studies use analytical methods that ignore clustering. This article compares alternative statistical methods for accommodating clustering in CEAs of CRTs. METHODS: Our simulation study compared the performance of statistical methods for CEAs of CRTs with 2 treatment arms. The study considered a method that ignored clustering--seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) without a robust standard error (SE)--and 4 methods that recognized clustering--SUR and generalized estimating equations (GEEs), both with robust SE, a "2-stage" nonparametric bootstrap (TSB) with shrinkage correction, and a multilevel model (MLM). The base case assumed CRTs with moderate numbers of balanced clusters (20 per arm) and normally distributed costs. Other scenarios included CRTs with few clusters, imbalanced cluster sizes, and skewed costs. Performance was reported as bias, root mean squared error (rMSE), and confidence interval (CI) coverage for estimating incremental net benefits (INBs). We also compared the methods in a case study. RESULTS: Each method reported low levels of bias. Without the robust SE, SUR gave poor CI coverage (base case: 0.89 v. nominal level: 0.95). The MLM and TSB performed well in each scenario (CI coverage, 0.92-0.95). With few clusters, the GEE and SUR (with robust SE) had coverage below 0.90. In the case study, the mean INBs were similar across all methods, but ignoring clustering underestimated statistical uncertainty and the value of further research. CONCLUSIONS: MLMs and the TSB are appropriate analytical methods for CEAs of CRTs with the characteristics described. SUR and GEE are not recommended for studies with few clusters.

A prospective, population-based study of the role of visual impairment in motor vehicle crashes among older drivers: the SEE study.

PURPOSE: To determine the role of vision and visual attention factors in automobile crash involvement. METHODS: Drivers aged 65 to 84 years were identified during the baseline interview (1993-1995) of the Salisbury Eye Evaluation (SEE) Study. Crash involvement through December 1997 was determined from Maryland State motor vehicle records. Vision tests at baseline included distance acuity at normal and low luminance, contrast sensitivity, glare sensitivity, stereoacuity, and visual fields. Visual attention was evaluated with the Useful Field of View Test (UFOV; Visual Awareness, Chicago, IL). Survival analysis was used to determine the relative risk of a crash as a function of demographic variables, miles driven, vision, and visual attention. RESULTS: One hundred twenty (6.7%) of the 1801 drivers were involved in a crash during the observation interval. Glare sensitivity and binocular field loss were significant predictors of crash involvement (P < 0.05). For those with moderate or better vision (<3 letters for glare sensitivity and <20 points missed for binocular visual fields) increased glare sensitivity or reduced visual fields were, paradoxically, associated with a reduction in crash risk, whereas for those with poorer levels of vision, increased glare sensitivity or reduced visual fields were associated with increased crash risk. Worse UFOV score was associated with increased crash risk. CONCLUSIONS: Glare sensitivity, visual field loss, and UFOV were significant predictors of crash involvement. Acuity, contrast sensitivity, and stereoacuity were not associated with crashes. These results suggest that current vision screening for drivers' licensure, based primarily on visual acuity, may miss important aspects of visual impairment.

Inequalities in influenza vaccine uptake among people aged over 74 years in Britain.

BACKGROUND: In the UK, payments to providers (General Practitioners) for vaccinating all people aged over 64 years old against influenza commenced in 2000. Little information exists on the relationship between uptake and need. We assessed factors influencing uptake and equity in uptake in over 74 year olds. METHODS: We analysed cohort data from 5572 subjects in a community-based trial. Analyses took into account clustering and location of general practices in terms of Underprivileged Area (UPA) Score and area Standardised Mortality Ratio (SMR). RESULTS: Vaccine uptake in practices in the most deprived tertile was 0.88 (95% CI 0.80-0.96) that of the least deprived and mid tertile, adjusted for confounding. Within each deprivation tertile, uptake in the mid and highest SMR tertile was 0.86 (95% CI 0.79, 0.94) and 0.87 (95% CI 0.81, 0.95) that of the lowest respectively. Uptake was 10% lower at the most in individuals with poorer quality housing. Higher uptake if married or with respiratory conditions and lower uptake if smoked had cognitive impairment or depression did not explain the socioeconomic differentials. CONCLUSIONS: Lower uptake in practices in deprived areas supports targeting of resources. At the individual level, those who are more isolated require support to access influenza vaccination.

Population-based multidimensional assessment of older people in UK general practice: a cluster-randomised factorial trial.

BACKGROUND: The benefit of multidimensional assessment and management of older people remains controversial. Most trials have been too small to produce adequate evidence to inform policy. We aimed to measure the effects of different approaches to assessment and management of older people. METHODS: We undertook a cluster-randomised factorial trial in 106 general practices (43219 eligible patients aged 75 years and older, 78% participation), comparing (1) universal versus targeted assessment and (2) subsequent management by hospital outpatient geriatric team versus the primary-care team. All participants received a brief multidimensional assessment followed by a nurse-led in-depth assessment in the universal group, whereas in the targeted group the in-depth assessment was offered only to those with problems established at the brief assessment. Referrals to the randomised team (geriatric management or primary care), other medical or social services, health-care workers, or agencies, and emergency referrals to the general practitioner were based on a standard protocol at the in-depth assessment. The primary endpoints were mortality, admissions to hospital and institution, and quality of life. Analysis was by intention to treat and per protocol. This trial has been assigned the International Standardised Randomised Controlled Trial Number ISRCTN23494848. FINDINGS: Mortality and hospital or institutional admissions did not differ between groups. During 3 years' follow-up, significant improvements in quality of life resulted from universal versus targeted assessment in terms of homecare, and from management by geriatric team versus primary-care team, in terms of mobility, social interaction, and morale. However, only the result for social interaction was consistent with a small but important effect. INTERPRETATION: The different forms of multidimensional assessment offered almost no differences in patient outcome.

Factors associated with depression in a representative sample of 14 217 people aged 75 and over in the United Kingdom: results from the MRC trial of assessment and management of older people in the community.

BACKGROUND: Several social, demographic and physical factors have been shown to be associated with depression in later life, but results have been inconsistent. We aimed to assess factors associated with depression in old age, using data from the MRC trial of assessment and management of older people in the community. METHOD: Analysis of cross-sectional data. Depression was measured with a threshold of <6/6+ on the GDS-15. Independent associations with social, demographic, physical and social network variables were assessed by logistic regression. RESULTS: In a fully adjusted analysis, odds ratios (OR) for depression were greater in older people, (adjusted OR for those aged 80-84 years = 1.1, 85-90 years = 1.5 and 90+ years = 1.8), those in rented (OR:1.3) or sheltered/residential accommodation (OR:1.5), and those widowed, divorced or separated (OR:1.2). Life events, (OR:1.4), smoking (OR:1.6), having two or more physical illnesses (OR:1.6) or no confiding relationship (OR:3.4) were also significantly associated with depression. Higher alcohol consumption was not predictive. Female sex and living alone were associated with depression in a crude analysis, but not after full adjustment for confounding. CONCLUSIONS: The importance of these results lies in the large size and representative nature of the sample. In contrast to some previous reports, increasing age was associated with increasing risk of depression, but sex, living alone and alcohol were not associated. Social isolation was more important than living alone per se. Other associations largely concurred with previous work.

Performance of a single screening question for depression in a representative sample of 13 670 people aged 75 and over in the UK: results from the MRC trial of assessment and management of older people in the community.

BACKGROUND: A concise, accurate screening question for depression would be an important contribution to the Single Assessment Process for Older People. OBJECTIVE: To examine the performance of a previously validated screening question for depression, in a large community sample. METHODS: Both the single screening question, and the Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS-15) were completed by 13 670 people aged 75 and over in the community. Responses to the question were compared with a "standard" of scoring above different thresholds on the Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS-15). RESULTS: For more severe GDS-15 depression, the best performance of the question was a sensitivity of only 52% and a specificity of 93%. CONCLUSION: Even at its best, the question therefore misses almost half the cases. This highlights the problems of such simple approaches to routine screening.