Change in covid-19 risk over time following vaccination with CoronaVac: test negative case-control study.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the change in odds of covid-19 over time following primary series completion of the inactivated whole virus vaccine CoronaVac (Sinovac Biotech) in São Paulo State, Brazil. DESIGN: Test negative case-control study. SETTING: Community testing for covid-19 in São Paulo State, Brazil. PARTICIPANTS: Adults aged ≥18 years who were residents of São Paulo state, had received two doses of CoronaVac, did not have a laboratory confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection before vaccination, and underwent reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) testing for SARS-CoV-2 from 17 January to 14 December 2021. Cases were matched to test negative controls by age (in 5 year bands), municipality of residence, healthcare worker status, and epidemiological week of RT-PCR test. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: RT-PCR confirmed symptomatic covid-19 and associated hospital admissions and deaths. Conditional logistic regression was adjusted for sex, number of covid-19 associated comorbidities, race, and previous acute respiratory illness. RESULTS: From 202 741 eligible people, 52 170 cases with symptomatic covid-19 and 69 115 test negative controls with covid-19 symptoms were formed into 43 257 matched sets. Adjusted odds ratios of symptomatic covid-19 increased with time since completion of the vaccination series. The increase in odds was greater in younger people and among healthcare workers, although sensitivity analyses suggested that this was in part due to bias. In addition, the adjusted odds ratios of covid-19 related hospital admission or death significantly increased with time compared with the odds 14-41 days after series completion: from 1.25 (95% confidence interval 1.04 to 1.51) at 70-97 days up to 1.94 (1.41 to 2.67) from 182 days onwards. CONCLUSIONS: Significant increases in the risk of moderate and severe covid-19 outcomes occurred three months after primary vaccination with CoronaVac among people aged 65 and older. These findings provide supportive evidence for the implementation of vaccine boosters in these populations who received this inactivated vaccine. Studies of waning should include analyses designed to uncover common biases.

[Differential aspects in the access to and quality of primary health care within the scope of the vaccine coverage for influenza]. / Aspectos diferenciais do acesso e qualidade da atenção primária à saúde no alcance da cobertura vacinal de influenza.

A drop in the percentages of vaccination coverage in Brazil has been detected in a scenario where there is progressive growth in the coverage of Primary Health Care (PHC), namely the location where most of the vaccination actions occur. This article investigated the differences in PHC access and quality profiles among municipalities that attained or failed to attain coverage targets for influenza in 2019, stratified by vaccination priority groups. In this ecological study, we compared predictors of reaching the goal of vaccination coverage for influenza, considering access, quality, and characteristics of the municipality. For all groups, the set of municipalities that reached the targets had greater PHC and Family Health Strategy coverage and a greater number of Community Health Agents per thousand inhabitants. They also carried out more active searches for children with delayed vaccination schedules, registered the vaccination of pregnant women on the same day, had unit opening hours that met user expectations, showed greater user satisfaction with the care received and had a higher percentage of the population with access to garbage collection. The variables may support decision-making about the organization of PHC services with the purpose of expanding vaccine coverage for influenza.

É observada a queda nos percentuais de cobertura vacinal no Brasil, num cenário de crescimento progressivo da cobertura da Atenção Primária à Saúde (APS), locus onde grande parte das ações de vacinação ocorre. Investigou-se as diferenças nos perfis de acesso e qualidade da APS entre municípios que atingiram ou não as metas de cobertura vacinal para influenza em 2019. Neste estudo ecológico, comparou-se variáveis potencialmente preditoras do alcance da meta de cobertura vacinal para influenza, considerando as dimensões de acesso, qualidade e características do município. Para todos os grupos, o conjunto de municípios que atingiu a cobertura preconizada tinha maiores coberturas de APS e de Estratégia de Saúde da Família e maior número de Agentes Comunitários de Saúde por mil habitantes. Também realizavam mais busca ativa de crianças com calendário vacinal atrasado, registravam a vacinação em dia das gestantes, o horário de funcionamento da unidade atendia às expectativas do usuário, havia maior satisfação do usuário com o cuidado recebido e maior percentual da população com acesso à coleta de lixo. As variáveis podem servir de apoio para a tomada de decisão quanto à organização dos serviços de APS na busca de ampliar as coberturas vacinais para influenza.

Aspectos diferenciais do acesso e qualidade da atenção primária à saúde no alcance da cobertura vacinal de influenza / Differential aspects in the access to and quality of primary health care within the scope of the vaccine coverage for influenza

Resumo É observada a queda nos percentuais de cobertura vacinal no Brasil, num cenário de crescimento progressivo da cobertura da Atenção Primária à Saúde (APS), locus onde grande parte das ações de vacinação ocorre. Investigou-se as diferenças nos perfis de acesso e qualidade da APS entre municípios que atingiram ou não as metas de cobertura vacinal para influenza em 2019. Neste estudo ecológico, comparou-se variáveis potencialmente preditoras do alcance da meta de cobertura vacinal para influenza, considerando as dimensões de acesso, qualidade e características do município. Para todos os grupos, o conjunto de municípios que atingiu a cobertura preconizada tinha maiores coberturas de APS e de Estratégia de Saúde da Família e maior número de Agentes Comunitários de Saúde por mil habitantes. Também realizavam mais busca ativa de crianças com calendário vacinal atrasado, registravam a vacinação em dia das gestantes, o horário de funcionamento da unidade atendia às expectativas do usuário, havia maior satisfação do usuário com o cuidado recebido e maior percentual da população com acesso à coleta de lixo. As variáveis podem servir de apoio para a tomada de decisão quanto à organização dos serviços de APS na busca de ampliar as coberturas vacinais para influenza.

Abstract A drop in the percentages of vaccination coverage in Brazil has been detected in a scenario where there is progressive growth in the coverage of Primary Health Care (PHC), namely the location where most of the vaccination actions occur. This article investigated the differences in PHC access and quality profiles among municipalities that attained or failed to attain coverage targets for influenza in 2019, stratified by vaccination priority groups. In this ecological study, we compared predictors of reaching the goal of vaccination coverage for influenza, considering access, quality, and characteristics of the municipality. For all groups, the set of municipalities that reached the targets had greater PHC and Family Health Strategy coverage and a greater number of Community Health Agents per thousand inhabitants. They also carried out more active searches for children with delayed vaccination schedules, registered the vaccination of pregnant women on the same day, had unit opening hours that met user expectations, showed greater user satisfaction with the care received and had a higher percentage of the population with access to garbage collection. The variables may support decision-making about the organization of PHC services with the purpose of expanding vaccine coverage for influenza.

Effectiveness of ChAdOx1 vaccine in older adults during SARS-CoV-2 Gamma variant circulation in São Paulo.

A two-dose regimen of the Oxford-AstraZeneca (ChAdOx1) Covid-19 vaccine with an inter-dose interval of three months has been implemented in many countries with restricted vaccine supply. However, there is limited evidence for the effectiveness of ChAdOx1 by dose in elderly populations in countries with high prevalence of the Gamma variant of SARS-CoV-2. Here, we estimate ChAdOx1 effectiveness by dose against the primary endpoint of RT-PCR-confirmed Covid-19, and secondary endpoints of Covid-19 hospitalization and Covid-19-related death, in adults aged ≥60 years during an epidemic with high Gamma variant prevalence in São Paulo state, Brazil using a matched, test-negative case-control study. Starting 28 days after the first dose, effectiveness of a single dose of ChAdOx1 is 33.4% (95% CI, 26.4-39.7) against Covid-19, 55.1% (95% CI, 46.6-62.2) against hospitalization, and 61.8% (95% CI, 48.9-71.4) against death. Starting 14 days after the second dose, effectiveness of the two-dose schedule is 77.9% (95% CI, 69.2-84.2) against Covid-19, 87.6% (95% CI, 78.2-92.9) against hospitalization, and 93.6% (95% CI, 81.9-97.7) against death. Completion of the ChAdOx1 vaccine schedule affords significantly increased protection over a single dose against mild and severe Covid-19 outcomes in elderly individuals during widespread Gamma variant circulation.

Environmental and social effects on the incidence of tuberculosis in three Brazilian municipalities and in Federal District.

INTRODUCTION: The territorial characteristics, heterogeneities of landscapes, and the regional profiles of Brazil show great disparities in the spatial distribution of tuberculosis burden. Objective of this study is to analyze the effects of environmental and social factors on tuberculosis incidence in three Brazilian municipalities and in the Federal District of Brazil. METHODOLOGY: We performed an ecological study carried out with 131,576 new cases of tuberculosis registered in the Brazilian national disease notification system. For our research we used climatic data, topographic data and socioeconomic data. RESULTS: Wind speed and vapor pressure increased the risk of tuberculosis infection between 4.6 and 5.8 times in the 3 municipalities, in comparison with the Federal District. In Recife socioeconomic aspects showed a greater association with tuberculosis. Lack of garbage collection, poor basic sanitation, and access to drinking water, respectively, increased 49, 33, and 28 times the risk of infection. In the multiple regression analysis, Rio de Janeiro showed several environmental characteristics - such as precipitation (p = 0.002), radiation (p = 0.020) and water vapor (p = 0.055) - and social characteristics associated with tuberculosis - such as the lack of sewage treatment, which revealed a 13.5-fold higher risk of infection (p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Incidence in the areas studied was influenced by environmental and social conditions at different levels depending on the territory where the problem was identified. The results make it possible to guide an urban and social policy to reach the targets set out in the WHO End tuberculosis Strategy in large Brazilian urban agglomerations.

Effectiveness of the CoronaVac vaccine in older adults during a gamma variant associated epidemic of covid-19 in Brazil: test negative case-control study.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the effectiveness of the inactivated whole virus vaccine, CoronaVac (Sinovac Biotech), against symptomatic covid-19 in the elderly population of São Paulo state, Brazil during widespread circulation of the gamma variant. DESIGN: Test negative case-control study. SETTING: Community testing for covid-19 in São Paulo state, Brazil. PARTICIPANTS: 43 774 adults aged ≥70 years who were residents of São Paulo state and underwent reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) testing for SARS-CoV-2 from 17 January to 29 April 2021. 26 433 cases with symptomatic covid-19 and 17 622 test negative controls with covid-19 symptoms were formed into 13 283 matched sets, one case with to up to five controls, according to age, sex, self-reported race, municipality of residence, previous covid-19 status, and date of RT-PCR test (±3 days). INTERVENTION: Vaccination with a two dose regimen of CoronaVac. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: RT-PCR confirmed symptomatic covid-19 and associated hospital admissions and deaths. RESULTS: Adjusted vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic covid-19 was 24.7% (95% confidence interval 14.7% to 33.4%) at 0-13 days and 46.8% (38.7% to 53.8%) at ≥14 days after the second dose. Adjusted vaccine effectiveness against hospital admissions was 55.5% (46.5% to 62.9%) and against deaths was 61.2% (48.9% to 70.5%) at ≥14 days after the second dose. Vaccine effectiveness ≥14 days after the second dose was highest for the youngest age group (70-74 years)-59.0% (43.7% to 70.2%) against symptomatic disease, 77.6% (62.5% to 86.7%) against hospital admissions, and 83.9% (59.2% to 93.7%) against deaths-and declined with increasing age. CONCLUSIONS: Vaccination with CoronaVac was associated with a reduction in symptomatic covid-19, hospital admissions, and deaths in adults aged ≥70 years in a setting with extensive transmission of the gamma variant. Vaccine protection was, however, low until completion of the two dose regimen, and vaccine effectiveness was observe to decline with increasing age among this elderly population.

Factors associated with knowledge and use of hiv prevention strategies among female sex workers in 12 brazilian cities. / Fatores associados ao conhecimento e utilização de estratégias de prevenção do HIV entre mulheres trabalhadoras do sexo em 12 cidades brasileiras.

This article aims to Identify factors associated with knowledge and use of combined HIV prevention strategies among female sex workers (FSW). Cross-sectional epidemiological study, using the Respondent Driven Sampling (RDS) method. Descriptive analyzes were performed after adjustments required by the RDS method. To investigate factors associated with knowledge of PEP and PrEP and use of the female condom, Poisson regression was applied, using odds ratio as an association measure. FSW not affiliated with NGOs, who did not receive informational material on prevention and / or participated in lectures in the last six months and who do not identify themselves as FSW in healthcare service facilities have less knowledge about PEP and PrEP and use the female condom less frequently. In general, FSW do not have sufficient knowledge and access to combined HIV prevention methods to take advantage of their benefits. We believe that the adoption of different models of care for FSW in partnership with NGOs can be an effective strategy for expanding knowledge and use of HIV prevention methods in Brazil.

O objetivo deste artigo é identificar fatores associados ao conhecimento e utilização de estratégias de prevenção combinada do HIV entre mulheres trabalhadoras do sexo (MTS). Estudo epidemiológico transversal, utilizando o método Respondent Driven Sampling (RDS). Foram realizadas análises descritivas após ajustes requeridos pelo método RDS. Para investigar fatores associados ao conhecimento de PEP e PrEP e utilização do preservativo feminino foi usada a regressão de Poisson, utilizando como medida de associação o Odds Ratio. MTS sem vínculo com ONGs, que não receberam material informativo sobre prevenção e/ou participaram de palestras nos últimos seis meses e que não se identificam como MTS nos serviços de saúde têm menos conhecimento sobre PEP e PrEP e utilizam com menor frequência o preservativo feminino. De maneira geral, as MTS não têm conhecimento e acesso suficiente às tecnologias de prevenção combinada do HIV a ponto de usufruir de seus benefícios. Consideramos que a adoção de modelos diferenciados de cuidados voltados para MTS em parceria com ONGs pode ser uma estratégia efetiva para ampliação do conhecimento e utilização das tecnologias de prevenção do HIV no Brasil.

Effectiveness of CoronaVac among healthcare workers in the setting of high SARS-CoV-2 Gamma variant transmission in Manaus, Brazil: A test-negative case-control study.

BACKGROUND: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variant, Gamma, emerged in the city of Manaus in late 2020 during a large resurgence of coronavirus disease (COVID-19), and has spread throughout Brazil. The effectiveness of vaccines in settings with widespread Gamma variant transmission has not been reported. METHODS: We performed a matched test-negative case-control study to estimate the effectiveness of an inactivated vaccine, CoronaVac, in healthcare workers (HCWs) in Manaus, where the Gamma variant accounted for 86% of genotyped SARS-CoV-2 samples at the peak of its epidemic. We performed an early analysis of effectiveness following administration of at least one vaccine dose and an analysis of effectiveness of the two-dose schedule. The primary outcome was symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection. FINDINGS: For the early at-least-one-dose and two-dose analyses the study population was, respectively, 53,176 and 53,153 HCWs residing in Manaus and aged 18 years or older, with complete information on age, residence, and vaccination status. Among 53,153 HCWs eligible for the two-dose analysis, 47,170 (89%) received at least one dose of CoronaVac and 2,656 individuals (5%) underwent RT-PCR testing from 19 January, 2021 to 13 April, 2021. Of 3,195 RT-PCR tests, 885 (28%) were positive. 393 and 418 case-control pairs were selected for the early and two-dose analyses, respectively, matched on calendar time, age, and neighbourhood. Among those who had received both vaccine doses before the RT-PCR sample collection date, the average time from second dose to sample collection date was 14 days (IQR 7-24). In the early analysis, vaccination with at least one dose was associated with a 0.50-fold reduction (adjusted vaccine effectiveness (VE), 49.6%, 95% CI 11.3 to 71.4) in the odds of symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection during the period 14 days or more after receiving the first dose. However, we estimated low effectiveness (adjusted VE 36.8%, 95% CI -54.9 to 74.2) of the two-dose schedule against symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection during the period 14 days or more after receiving the second dose. A finding that vaccinated individuals were much more likely to be infected than unvaccinated individuals in the period 0-13 days after first dose (aOR 2.11, 95% CI 1.36-3.27) suggests that unmeasured confounding led to downward bias in the vaccine effectiveness estimate. INTERPRETATION: Evidence from this test-negative study of the effectiveness of CoronaVac was mixed, and likely affected by bias in this setting. Administration of at least one vaccine dose showed effectiveness against symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection in the setting of epidemic Gamma variant transmission. However, the low estimated effectiveness of the two-dose schedule underscores the need to maintain non-pharmaceutical interventions while vaccination campaigns with CoronaVac are being implemented. FUNDING: Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (Fiocruz); Municipal Health Secretary of Manaus; Fundação de Vigilância em Saúde do Amazonas.

Fatores associados ao conhecimento e utilização de estratégias de prevenção do HIV entre mulheres trabalhadoras do sexo em 12 cidades brasileiras / Factors associated with knowledge and use of hiv prevention strategies among female sex workers in 12 brazilian cities

Resumo O objetivo deste artigo é identificar fatores associados ao conhecimento e utilização de estratégias de prevenção combinada do HIV entre mulheres trabalhadoras do sexo (MTS). Estudo epidemiológico transversal, utilizando o método Respondent Driven Sampling (RDS). Foram realizadas análises descritivas após ajustes requeridos pelo método RDS. Para investigar fatores associados ao conhecimento de PEP e PrEP e utilização do preservativo feminino foi usada a regressão de Poisson, utilizando como medida de associação o Odds Ratio. MTS sem vínculo com ONGs, que não receberam material informativo sobre prevenção e/ou participaram de palestras nos últimos seis meses e que não se identificam como MTS nos serviços de saúde têm menos conhecimento sobre PEP e PrEP e utilizam com menor frequência o preservativo feminino. De maneira geral, as MTS não têm conhecimento e acesso suficiente às tecnologias de prevenção combinada do HIV a ponto de usufruir de seus benefícios. Consideramos que a adoção de modelos diferenciados de cuidados voltados para MTS em parceria com ONGs pode ser uma estratégia efetiva para ampliação do conhecimento e utilização das tecnologias de prevenção do HIV no Brasil.

Abstract This article aims to Identify factors associated with knowledge and use of combined HIV prevention strategies among female sex workers (FSW). Cross-sectional epidemiological study, using the Respondent Driven Sampling (RDS) method. Descriptive analyzes were performed after adjustments required by the RDS method. To investigate factors associated with knowledge of PEP and PrEP and use of the female condom, Poisson regression was applied, using odds ratio as an association measure. FSW not affiliated with NGOs, who did not receive informational material on prevention and / or participated in lectures in the last six months and who do not identify themselves as FSW in healthcare service facilities have less knowledge about PEP and PrEP and use the female condom less frequently. In general, FSW do not have sufficient knowledge and access to combined HIV prevention methods to take advantage of their benefits. We believe that the adoption of different models of care for FSW in partnership with NGOs can be an effective strategy for expanding knowledge and use of HIV prevention methods in Brazil.

Risk Factors for Death Among 120,804 Hospitalized Patients with Confirmed COVID-19 in São Paulo, Brazil.

São Paulo is a state in Brazil with one of the highest numbers of confirmed and severe cases of coronavirus disease (COVID-19), with an incidence of 294 hospitalizations per 100,000 inhabitants. We report the clinical characteristics and outcomes of 120,804 hospitalized patients with confirmed COVID-19 from February 26 to October 10, 2020, in São Paulo. Characteristics of patients who died and survived were compared using a survival analysis. The median age was 60 years (interquartile range [IQR], 47-72), 67,821 (56.1%) were men, and 61,659 (51.0%) were white. Most hospitalized patients (79,812; 66.1%) reported one or more comorbidities, 41,708 (34.5%) hospitalized patients were admitted to intensive care units, and 33,079 (27.4%) died. Men (hazard ratio [HR], 1.22; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.18-1.25), elderly individuals (HR, 3.85; 95% CI, 3.68-4.02), and patients with chronic cardiovascular disease including hypertension (HR, 1.05; 95% CI, 1.02-1.08), chronic lung disease (HR, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.31-1.45), diabetes mellitus (HR, 1.14; 95% CI, 1.11-1.18), and chronic neurological disease (HR, 1.48; 95% CI, 1.41-1.55) were at higher risk for death from COVID-19.

Change in COVID-19 risk over time following vaccination with CoronaVac: A testnegative case-control study.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the change in odds of covid-19 over time following primary series completion of the inactivated whole virus vaccine, CoronaVac (Sinovac Biotech) in São Paulo state, Brazil. DESIGN: Test negative case-control study. SETTING: Community testing for covid-19 in São Paulo state, Brazil. PARTICIPANTS: Adults aged 18-120 years who were residents of São Paulo state, without a previous laboratory-confirmed covid-19 infection, who received only two doses of CoronaVac, and underwent reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) testing for SARS-CoV-2 from 17 January to 30 September 2021. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: RT-PCR-confirmed symptomatic covid-19 and associated hospital admissions and deaths. Cases were pair-matched to test-negative controls by age (in 5-year bands), municipality of residence, healthcare worker (HCW) status, and date of RT-PCR test (±3 days). Conditional logistic regression was adjusted for sex, number of covid-19-associated comorbidities, race, and previous acute respiratory infection. RESULTS: From 137,820 eligible individuals, 37,929 cases with symptomatic covid-19 and 25,756 test-negative controls with covid-19 symptoms were formed into 37,929 matched pairs. Adjusted odds ratios of symptomatic covid-19 increased with time since series completion, and this increase was greater in younger individuals, and among HCWs compared to non-HCWs. Adjusted odds ratios of covid-19 hospitalisation or death were significantly increased from 98 days since series completion, compared to individuals vaccinated 14-41 days previously: 1.40 (95% confidence interval 1.09 to 1.79) from 98-125 days, 1.55 (1.16 to 2.07) from 126-153 days, 1.56 (1.12 to 2.18) from 154-181 days, and 2.12 (1.39-3.22) from 182 days. CONCLUSIONS: In the general population of São Paulo state, Brazil, an increase in odds of moderate and severe covid-19 outcomes was observed over time following primary series completion with CoronaVac.

Imputation method to reduce undetected severe acute respiratory infection cases during the coronavirus disease outbreak in Brazil.

INTRODUCTION: The coronavirus disease (COVD-19) outbreak has overburdened the surveillance of severe acute respiratory infections (SARIs), including the laboratory network. This study was aimed at correcting the absence of laboratory results of reported SARI deaths. METHODS: The imputation method was applied for SARI deaths without laboratory information using clinico-epidemiological characteristics. RESULTS: Of 84,449 SARI deaths, 51% were confirmed with COVID-19 while 3% with other viral respiratory diseases. After the imputation method, 95% of deaths were reclassified as COVID-19 while 5% as other viral respiratory diseases. CONCLUSIONS: The imputation method was a useful and robust solution (sensitivity and positive predictive value of 98%) for missing values through clinical & epidemiological characteristics.

Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of the COVID-19 epidemic in Brazil.

The first case of COVID-19 was detected in Brazil on 25 February 2020. We report and contextualize epidemiological, demographic and clinical findings for COVID-19 cases during the first 3 months of the epidemic. By 31 May 2020, 514,200 COVID-19 cases, including 29,314 deaths, had been reported in 75.3% (4,196 of 5,570) of municipalities across all five administrative regions of Brazil. The R0 value for Brazil was estimated at 3.1 (95% Bayesian credible interval = 2.4-5.5), with a higher median but overlapping credible intervals compared with some other seriously affected countries. A positive association between higher per-capita income and COVID-19 diagnosis was identified. Furthermore, the severe acute respiratory infection cases with unknown aetiology were associated with lower per-capita income. Co-circulation of six respiratory viruses was detected but at very low levels. These findings provide a comprehensive description of the ongoing COVID-19 epidemic in Brazil and may help to guide subsequent measures to control virus transmission.

A model to predict SARS-CoV-2 infection based on the first three-month surveillance data in Brazil.

OBJECTIVE: COVID-19 diagnosis is a critical problem, mainly due to the lack or delay in the test results. We aimed to obtain a model to predict SARS-CoV-2 infection in suspected patients reported to the Brazilian surveillance system. METHODS: We analysed suspected patients reported to the National Surveillance System that corresponded to the following case definition: patients with respiratory symptoms and fever, who travelled to regions with local or community transmission or who had close contact with a suspected or confirmed case. Based on variables routinely collected, we obtained a multiple model using logistic regression. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and accuracy indicators were used for validation. RESULTS: We described 1468 COVID-19 cases (confirmed by RT-PCR) and 4271 patients with other illnesses. With a data subset including 80% of patients from Sao Paulo (SP) and Rio Janeiro (RJ), we obtained a function which reached an AUC of 95.54% (95% CI: 94.41-96.67%) for the diagnosis of COVID-19 and accuracy of 90.1% (sensitivity 87.62% and specificity 92.02%). In a validation dataset including the other 20% of patients from SP and RJ, this model exhibited an AUC of 95.01% (92.51-97.5%) and accuracy of 89.47% (sensitivity 87.32% and specificity 91.36%). CONCLUSION: We obtained a model suitable for the clinical diagnosis of COVID-19 based on routinely collected surveillance data. Applications of this tool include early identification for specific treatment and isolation, rational use of laboratory tests, and input for modelling epidemiological trends.

OBJECTIF: Le diagnostic du COVID-19 est un problème critique, principalement dû au manque ou au retard dans les résultats du test. Nous visions à obtenir un modèle pour prédire l'infection par le SRAS-CoV-2 chez les patients suspects signalés au système de surveillance brésilien. MÉTHODES: Nous avons analysé les patients suspects signalés au Système National de Surveillance qui correspondaient à la définition de cas suivante: patients présentant des symptômes respiratoires et de la fièvre, qui se sont rendus dans des régions à transmission locale ou communautaire ou qui ont eu des contacts étroits avec un cas suspect ou confirmé. Sur la base de variables collectées en routine, nous avons obtenu un modèle multiple en utilisant la régression logistique. L'aire sous la courbe caractéristique de fonctionnement du récepteur (AUC) et les indicateurs de précision ont été utilisés pour la validation. RÉSULTATS: Nous avons décrit 1.468 cas de COVID-19 (confirmés par RT-PCR) et 4.271 patients atteints d'autres maladies. Avec un sous-ensemble de données comprenant 80% de patients de Sao Paulo (SP) et de Rio de Janeiro (RJ), nous avons obtenu une fonction qui atteignait une AUC de 95,54% (IC95%: 94,41% - 96,67%) pour le diagnostic de COVID- 19 et une précision de 90,1% (sensibilité 87,62% et spécificité 92,02%). Dans un ensemble de données de validation incluant les 20% restants de patients de SP et de RJ, ce modèle présentait une AUC de 95,01% (92,51% - 97,5%) et une précision de 89,47% (sensibilité 87,32% et spécificité 91,36%). CONCLUSION: Nous avons obtenu un modèle adapté au diagnostic clinique du COVID-19 sur la base des données de surveillance collectées en routine. Les applications de cet outil comprennent l'identification précoce pour un traitement et un isolement spécifiques, l'utilisation rationnelle des tests de laboratoire et des données pour modéliser les tendances épidémiologiques.

[Gaps in drug-resistant tuberculosis surveillance: probabilistic database linkage in Brazil]. / Lacunas na vigilância da tuberculose drogarresistente: relacionando sistemas de informação do Brasil.

The study aimed to assess the coverage and reliability of drug-resistant tuberculosis (DR-TB) case closure in the Information System on Special Treatments for Tuberculosis (SITE-TB in Portuguese) in Brazil from 2013 to 2016, based on probabilistic linkage with the Information System on Diseases of Notification (SINAN), Laboratory Environment Manager (GAL), and Mortality Information System (SIM). The study population consisted of DR-TB cases that initiated treatment from 2013 to 2016 in Brazil. Linkage with SINAN assessed the coverage and estimated underreporting of DR-TB cases. The capture-recapture method was applied, using the Chapman estimator. Linkage with GAL identified cases diagnosed by the laboratory that had not been reported to SITE-TB. Linkage with SIM assessed the reliability of case closure by death in SITE-TB, using the kappa coefficient. We estimated a population of 2,945 (95%CI: 2,365-3,602) new cases of DR-TB with the Chapman estimator. We located 1,626 individuals in the GAL database that had not been reported to SITE-TB, even with laboratory confirmation of drug resistance. PABAK (prevalance and bias adjusted kappa) of 0.86 (95%CI: 0.85-0.87) was classified as excellent for the agreement in death as the outcome between the SITE-TB and SIM databases. The results pointed to persistent gaps related to diagnosis and treatment of DR-TB in Brazil. Underreporting of DR-TB cases in the SITE-TB database poses a challenge for TB control. Identification of these individuals and early start of treatment should be prioritized in health services.

Imputation method to reduce undetected severe acute respiratory infection cases during the coronavirus disease outbreak in Brazil

Abstract INTRODUCTION: The coronavirus disease (COVD-19) outbreak has overburdened the surveillance of severe acute respiratory infections (SARIs), including the laboratory network. This study was aimed at correcting the absence of laboratory results of reported SARI deaths. METHODS: The imputation method was applied for SARI deaths without laboratory information using clinico-epidemiological characteristics. RESULTS: Of 84,449 SARI deaths, 51% were confirmed with COVID-19 while 3% with other viral respiratory diseases. After the imputation method, 95% of deaths were reclassified as COVID-19 while 5% as other viral respiratory diseases. CONCLUSIONS: The imputation method was a useful and robust solution (sensitivity and positive predictive value of 98%) for missing values through clinical & epidemiological characteristics.

Lacunas na vigilância da tuberculose drogarresistente: relacionando sistemas de informação do Brasil / Gaps in drug-resistant tuberculosis surveillance: probabilistic database linkage in Brazil / Lagunas en la vigilancia de la tuberculosis resistente a fármacos: relacionando sistemas de información en Brasil

Resumo: O objetivo do trabalho foi avaliar a cobertura e a confiabilidade do encerramento dos casos de tuberculose drogarresistente (TB DR), do Sistema de Informação de Tratamentos Especiais de Tuberculose (SITE-TB), que ocorreram no Brasil no período de 2013 a 2016, a partir de relacionamentos probabilísticos com o Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação (SINAN), Gerenciador de Ambiente Laboratorial (GAL) e Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade (SIM). Os casos de TB DR com início de tratamento entre 2013 e 2016 no Brasil constituíram a população do estudo. O relacionamento com o SINAN avaliou a cobertura e estimou a subnotificação dos casos de TB DR. Aplicou-se o método de captura-recaptura, com uso do estimador de Chapman. O relacionamento com o GAL identificou casos diagnosticados pelo laboratório que não estavam notificados no SITE-TB. O relacionamento com o SIM avaliou a confiabilidade do encerramento óbito no SITE-TB, utilizando o coeficiente kappa. Estimou-se uma população de 2.945 (IC95%: 2.365-3.602) casos novos de TB DR com o estimador de Chapman. No GAL, foram encontrados 1.626 indivíduos não notificados no SITE-TB, mesmo com exame laboratorial confirmatório de resistência aos medicamentos antiTB. Classificou-se como excelente, PABAK (prevalance and bias adjusted kappa) de 0,86 (IC95%: 0,85-0,87), a concordância entre o desfecho óbito do SITE-TB e o SIM. Os resultados mostraram que ainda temos lacunas relacionadas ao diagnóstico e ao tratamento da TB DR no Brasil. A subnotificação no SITE-TB de casos de TB DR representa um desafio para o controle da doença. A localização desses indivíduos e o início precoce do tratamento devem constituir uma ação priorizada nos serviços de saúde.

Abstract: The study aimed to assess the coverage and reliability of drug-resistant tuberculosis (DR-TB) case closure in the Information System on Special Treatments for Tuberculosis (SITE-TB in Portuguese) in Brazil from 2013 to 2016, based on probabilistic linkage with the Information System on Diseases of Notification (SINAN), Laboratory Environment Manager (GAL), and Mortality Information System (SIM). The study population consisted of DR-TB cases that initiated treatment from 2013 to 2016 in Brazil. Linkage with SINAN assessed the coverage and estimated underreporting of DR-TB cases. The capture-recapture method was applied, using the Chapman estimator. Linkage with GAL identified cases diagnosed by the laboratory that had not been reported to SITE-TB. Linkage with SIM assessed the reliability of case closure by death in SITE-TB, using the kappa coefficient. We estimated a population of 2,945 (95%CI: 2,365-3,602) new cases of DR-TB with the Chapman estimator. We located 1,626 individuals in the GAL database that had not been reported to SITE-TB, even with laboratory confirmation of drug resistance. PABAK (prevalance and bias adjusted kappa) of 0.86 (95%CI: 0.85-0.87) was classified as excellent for the agreement in death as the outcome between the SITE-TB and SIM databases. The results pointed to persistent gaps related to diagnosis and treatment of DR-TB in Brazil. Underreporting of DR-TB cases in the SITE-TB database poses a challenge for TB control. Identification of these individuals and early start of treatment should be prioritized in health services.

Resumen: El objetivo de este trabajo fue evaluar la cobertura y fiabilidad del cierre de casos de tuberculosis resistente a multiple medicamentos (TB DR; por sus siglas en portugués) en el Sistema de Información de Tratamientos Especiales de Tuberculosis (SITE-TB), que se produjeron en Brasil durante el período de 2013 a 2016, a partir de relaciones probabilísticas con el Sistema de Información de Enfermedades de Notificación (SINAN por sus siglas en portugués), Gestor de Ambiente de Laboratorio (GAL) y Sistema de Información sobre Mortalidad (SIM). La población del estudio fueron los casos de TB DR con inicio de tratamiento entre 2013 y 2016 en Brasil. La relación con el SINAN evaluó la cobertura y estimó la subnotificación de los casos de TB DR. Se aplicó el método de captura-recaptura, utilizando el estimador de Chapman. La relación con el GAL identificó casos diagnosticados por el laboratorio que no estaban notificados en el SITE-TB. La relación con el SIM evaluó la fiabilidad del cierre óbito en el SITE-TB, utilizando el coeficiente kappa. Se estimó que para una población de 2.945 (IC95%: 2.365-3.602) casos nuevos de TB DR con el estimador de Chapman. Se encontraron en el GAL a 1.626 individuos no notificados en el SITE-TB, incluso con examen de laboratorio confirmatorio de resistencia a los medicamentos antiTB. Se clasificó como excelente, PABAK (prevalance and bias adjusted kappa) de 0,86 (IC95%: 0,85-0,87), la concordancia entre el resultado óbito del SITE-TB y el SIM. Los resultados mostraron que todavía existen lagunas relacionadas con el diagnóstico y el tratamiento de la TB DR en Brasil. La subnotificación en el SITE-TB de casos de TB DR representa un desafío para el control de la enfermedad. La localización de esos individuos y el inicio precoz del tratamiento debe ser una acción priorizada en los servicios de salud.

Antiretroviral therapy status among people who died of AIDS-related causes from 2009 to 2013 in Brazil: a population-based study.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the antiretroviral therapy status of people living with HIV (PLHIV) who died of AIDS-related causes between 2009 and 2013. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional, population-based study. Data were obtained by linking the mortality information system and the national ART dispensing database. Trends were modelled using linear regression analysis. RESULTS: A total of 61 425 AIDS-related deaths were registered in Brazil between 2009 and 2013. Median age at death was 41 years (IQR: 33-49), and 65.7% (40 337) of deaths were among men; 47.2% (29 004) of PLHIV who died during the study period had never started treatment, 7.0% (4274) had discontinued it, 15.9% (9775) were on ART for 6 months or less and 29.9% (18 372) were on ART for more than 6 months. Only 1.3% of PLHIV were on third-line ARV regimens when they died. CONCLUSIONS: AIDS-related mortality remains a challenge even in a context of sustained universal access to antiretroviral treatment due to failure of service provision, not to therapy failure. Robust health policies closing gaps in the HIV continuum of care are crucial to further reduce mortality.

HIV Prevalence among Pregnant Women in Brazil: A National Survey.

Background This study was conducted to determine the seroprevalence of HIV among pregnant women in Brazil and to describe HIV testing coverage and the uptake of antenatal care (ANC). Methods Between October 2010 and January 2012, a probability sample survey of parturient women aged 15-49 years who visited public hospital delivery services in Brazil was conducted. Data were collected from prenatal reports and hospital records. Dried blood spot (DNS) samples were collected and tested for HIV. We describe the age-specific prevalence of HIV infection and ANC uptake with respect to sociodemographic factors. Results Of the 36,713 included women, 35,444 (96.6%) were tested for HIV during delivery admission. The overall HIV prevalence was of 0.38% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.31-0.48), and it was highest in: the 30 to 39 year-old age group (0.60% [0.40-0.88]), in the Southern region of Brazil (0.79% [0.59-1.04]), among women who had not completed primary (0.63% [0.30-1.31]) or secondary (0.67% [0.49-0.97]) school education, and among women who self-reported as Asian (0.94% [0.28-3.10]). The HIV testing coverage during prenatal care was of 86.6% for one test and of 38.2% for two tests. Overall, 98.5% of women attended at least 1 ANC visit, 90.4% attended at least 4 visits, 71% attended at least 6 visits, and 51.7% received ANC during the 1st trimester. HIV testing coverage and ANC uptake indicators increased with increasing age and education level of education, and were highest in the Southern region. Conclusions Brazil presents an HIV prevalence of less than 1% and almost universal coverage of ANC. However, gaps in HIV testing and ANC during the first trimester challenge the prevention of the vertical transmission of HIV. More efforts are needed to address regional and social disparities.

HIV Prevalence among Pregnant Women in Brazil: A National Survey / Prevalência de HIV em grávidas brasileiras: pesquisa nacional

Abstract Background This study was conducted to determine the seroprevalence of HIV among pregnant women in Brazil and to describe HIV testing coverage and the uptake of antenatal care (ANC). Methods Between October 2010 and January 2012, a probability sample survey of parturient women aged 15-49 years who visited public hospital delivery services in Brazil was conducted. Data were collected from prenatal reports and hospital records. Dried blood spot (DNS) samples were collected and tested for HIV.We describe the agespecific prevalence of HIV infection and ANC uptake with respect to sociodemographic factors. Results Of the 36,713 included women, 35,444 (96.6%) were tested for HIV during delivery admission. The overall HIV prevalence was of 0.38% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.31-0.48), and it was highest in: the 30 to 39 year-old age group (0.60% [0.40- 0.88]), in the Southern region of Brazil (0.79% [0.59-1.04]), among women who had not completed primary (0.63% [0.30-1.31]) or secondary (0.67% [0.49-0.97]) school education, and among women who self-reported as Asian (0.94% [0.28-3.10]). The HIV testing coverage during prenatal care was of 86.6% for one test and of 38.2% for two tests. Overall, 98.5% of women attended at least 1 ANC visit, 90.4% attended at least 4 visits, 71% attended at least 6 visits, and 51.7% received ANC during the 1st trimester. HIV testing coverage and ANC uptake indicators increased with increasing age and education level of education, and were highest in the Southern region. Conclusions Brazil presents an HIV prevalence of less than 1% and almost universal coverage of ANC. However, gaps in HIV testing and ANC during the first trimester challenge the prevention of the vertical transmission of HIV. More efforts are needed to address regional and social disparities.

Introdução Este estudo foi realizado com o objetivo de determinar a soroprevalência do HIV entre as mulheres grávidas no Brasil e descrever a cobertura de exames de HIV e a integração dos cuidados pré-natais (CPN). Métodos Entre outubro de 2010 e janeiro de 2012, foi realizada uma pesquisa de probabilidade por amostragem direcionada a mulheres grávidas com idade entre 15 e 49 anos, que utilizaram serviços de parto em hospitais públicos do Brasil. Os dados foram coletados a partir de relatórios pré-natais e registros hospitalares. Amostras de sangue foram coletadas e submetidas a exames de HIV. Descrevemos a prevalência da infecção pelo HIV específica de acordo com a idade e a absorção dos CPN em relação a fatores demográficos. Resultados Das 36.713 mulheres incluídas, 35.444 (96,6%) foram submetidas a exames de HIV durante a admissão para o trabalho de parto. A prevalência global de HIV foi de 0,38% (intervalo de confiança [IC] de 95%: 0,31-0,48), e foi maior no grupo com a faixa etária entre 30 e 39 anos de idade (0,60% [0,40-0,88]), da região Sul (0,79% [0,59-1,04]), entre as mulheres com o ensino fundamental incompleto (0,63% [0,30-1,31]) ou ensino médio incompleto (0,67% [0,49-0,97]), e entre as mulheres que se identificam como asiáticas (0,94% [0,28-3,10]). A cobertura do exame de HIV durante os CPN foi de 86,6% para um exame e de 38,2% para dois exames. No geral, 98,5% das mulheres foram atendidas em pelo menos 1 consulta de CPN, 90,4% compareceram a pelo menos 4 consultas, 71% compareceram a pelo menos 6 visitas, e 51,7% receberam CPN durante o 1o trimestre. A cobertura de exames de HIV e os indicadores de captação de CPN aumentaram de forma proporcional ao aumento da idade e do nível de educação, e foram maiores na região Sudeste. Conclusões O Brasil apresenta uma prevalência de menos de 1% e cobertura praticamente universal de CPN. No entanto, as lacunas nos exames de HIV e CPN durante o primeiro trimestre representam um desafio à prevenção contra a transmissão vertical do HIV. São necessários mais esforços a fim de reduzir as disparidades regionais e sociais.