Mesothelioma mortality in men: trends during 1977-2001 and projections for 2002-2016 in Spain.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate mesothelioma death trends in Spain and to predict the number of future cases of mesothelioma. METHODS: After descriptive analysis of mesothelioma mortality data, an age-period-cohort model was applied to estimate future mesothelioma deaths. RESULTS: From 1977 to 2001, 1928 men over 35 years of age died of mesothelioma in Spain. Projections indicate that 1321 men are expected to die from mesothelioma between 2007 and 2016. CONCLUSION: It is expected that mesothelioma deaths will increase at least until 2016. Available data do not allow prediction of the year when mortality will start to decrease.