Gender differences in estimated excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in Thailand.

BACKGROUND: There is a limited body of research specifically examining gender inequality in excess mortality and its variations across age groups and geographical locations during the COVID-19 pandemic. This study aims to fill this gap by analyzing the patterns of gender inequality in excess all-cause mortality in Thailand during the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: Data pertaining to all-cause deaths and population between January 1, 2010, and December 31, 2021, were obtained from Thailand's Bureau of Registration Administration. A seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) technique was used to estimate excess mortality during the pandemic between January 2020 to December 2021. Gender differential excess mortality was measured as the difference in age-standardized mortality rates between men and women. RESULTS: Our SARIMA-based estimate of all-cause mortality in Thailand during the COVID-19 pandemic amounted to 1,032,921 deaths, with COVID-19-related fatalities surpassing official figures by 1.64 times. The analysis revealed fluctuating patterns of excess and deficit in all-cause mortality rates across different phases of the pandemic, as well as among various age groups and regions. In 2020, the most pronounced gender disparity in excess all-cause mortality emerged in April, with 4.28 additional female deaths per 100,000, whereas in 2021, the peak gender gap transpired in August, with 7.52 more male deaths per 100,000. Individuals in the 80 + age group exhibited the largest gender gap for most of the observed period. Gender differences in excess mortality were uniform across regions and over the period observed. Bangkok showed the highest gender disparity during the peak of the fourth wave, with 24.18 more male deaths per 100,000. CONCLUSION: The findings indicate an overall presence of gender inequality in excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in Thailand, observed across age groups and regions. These findings highlight the need for further attention to be paid to gender disparities in mortality and call for targeted interventions to address these disparities.

Real-World Effectiveness of COVID-19 Vaccines against Severe Outcomes during the Period of Omicron Predominance in Thailand: A Test-Negative Nationwide Case-Control Study.

Due to the widespread Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 in Thailand, the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines has become a major issue. The primary objective of this study is to examine the real-world effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines based on secondary data acquired under normal circumstances in a real-world setting, to protect against treatment with invasive ventilation of pneumonia during January to April 2022, a period when Omicron was predominant. We conducted a nationwide test-negative case-control study. The case and control were matched with a ratio of 1:4 in terms of age, date of specimen collection, and hospital collection specimen and the odds ratio was calculated using conditional logistic regression. Overall, there was neither a distinction between mix-and-match regimens and homologous mRNA regimens against severe symptoms, nor was there a decline of the protective effect over the study period. The third and fourth dose boosters with ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 or mRNA vaccines provided high levels of protection against severe outcomes, approximately 87% to 100%, whereas two doses provided a moderate degree (70%). Thus, this study concludes that current national vaccine strategies provide favourable protective benefits against the Omicron variant. All Thais should receive at least two doses, while high-risk or vulnerable groups should be administered at least three doses.

Evaluating the Impact of Intervention Strategies on the First Wave and Predicting the Second Wave of COVID-19 in Thailand: A Mathematical Modeling Study.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has spread rapidly worldwide. This study aimed to assess and predict the incidence of COVID-19 in Thailand, including the preparation and evaluation of intervention strategies. An SEIR (susceptible, exposed, infected, recovered) model was implemented with model parameters estimated using the Bayesian approach. The model's projections showed that the highest daily reported incidence of COVID-19 would be approximately 140 cases (95% credible interval, CrI: 83-170 cases) by the end of March 2020. After Thailand declared an emergency decree, the numbers of new cases and case fatalities decreased, with no new imported cases. According to the model's predictions, the incidence would be zero at the end of June if non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were strictly and widely implemented. These stringent NPIs reduced the effective reproductive number (Rt) to 0.73 per day (95% CrI: 0.53-0.93) during April and May. Sensitivity analysis showed that contact rate, hand washing, and face mask wearing effectiveness were the parameters that most influenced the number of reported daily new cases. Our evaluation shows that Thailand's intervention strategies have been highly effective in mitigating disease propagation. Continuing with these strict disease prevention behaviors could minimize the risk of a new COVID-19 outbreak in Thailand.

Cost Effectiveness and Budget Impact Analyses of Influenza Vaccination for Prisoners in Thailand: An Application of System Dynamic Modelling.

Influenza outbreaks in Thai prisons were increasing in number every year and to address this, the Thai Ministry of Public Health (MOPH) initiated a policy to promote vaccination for prisoners. The objective of this study was to assess the cost effectiveness and budget impact of the influenza vaccination policy for prisoners in Thailand. The study obtained data from the Division of Epidemiology, Department of Disease Control (DDC), MOPH. Deterministic system dynamic modelling was exercised to estimate the financial implication of the vaccination programme in comparison with routine outbreak control. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was calculated via a DDC perspective. The reproductive number was estimated at 1.4. A total of 143 prisons across the country (375,763 prisoners) were analysed. In non-vaccination circumstances, the total healthcare cost amounted to 174.8 million Baht (US$ 5.6 million). Should all prisoners be vaccinated, the total healthcare cost would reduce to 90.9 million Baht (US$ 2.9 million), and 46.8 million Baht (US$ 1.5 million) of this is related to the vaccination. The ICER of vaccination (compared with routine outbreak control) varied between 39,738.0 to 61,688.3 Baht per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted (US$ 1281.9-1989.9). Should the vaccination cover 30% of the prisoners, the ICER would be equal to 46,866.8 Baht (US$ 1511.8) per DALY averted with the budget burden amounted to Baht (US$ 4.8 million). The vaccination programme would become more cost-effective if the routine outbreak control was intensified. In summary, the vaccination programme was a cost-effective measure to halt influenza outbreak amongst prisoners. Further primary studies that aim to assess the actual impact of the programme are recommended.

Melioidosis in Thailand: Present and Future.

A recent modelling study estimated that there are 2800 deaths due to melioidosis in Thailand yearly. The Thailand Melioidosis Network (formed in 2012) has been working closely with the Ministry of Public Health (MoPH) to investigate and reduce the burden of this disease. Based on updated data, the incidence of melioidosis is still high in Northeast Thailand. More than 2000 culture-confirmed cases of melioidosis are diagnosed in general hospitals with microbiology laboratories in this region each year. The mortality rate is around 35%. Melioidosis is endemic throughout Thailand, but it is still not uncommon that microbiological facilities misidentify Burkholderia pseudomallei as a contaminant or another organism. Disease awareness is low, and people in rural areas neither wear boots nor boil water before drinking to protect themselves from acquiring B. pseudomallei. Previously, about 10 melioidosis deaths were formally reported to the National Notifiable Disease Surveillance System (Report 506) each year, thus limiting priority setting by the MoPH. In 2015, the formally reported number of melioidosis deaths rose to 112, solely because Sunpasithiprasong Hospital, Ubon Ratchathani province, reported its own data (n = 107). Melioidosis is truly an important cause of death in Thailand, and currently reported cases (Report 506) and cases diagnosed at research centers reflect the tip of the iceberg. Laboratory training and communication between clinicians and laboratory personnel are required to improve diagnosis and treatment of melioidosis countrywide. Implementation of rapid diagnostic tests, such as a lateral flow antigen detection assay, with high accuracy even in melioidosis-endemic countries such as Thailand, is critically needed. Reporting of all culture-confirmed melioidosis cases from every hospital with a microbiology laboratory, together with final outcome data, is mandated under the Communicable Diseases Act B.E.2558. By enforcing this legislation, the MoPH could raise the priority of this disease, and should consider implementing a campaign to raise awareness and melioidosis prevention countrywide.