Increased straw return promoted soil organic carbon accumulation in China's croplands over the past 40 years.

Quantifying changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks within croplands across a broad spatiotemporal scale in response to anthropogenic and environmental factors offers valuable insights for sustainable agriculture aimed to improve soil health. Using a validated and widely used soil carbon model RothC, we simulated the SOC dynamics across intensive croplands in China that support ∼22 % of the global population using only 7 % of the global cropland area. The modelling results demonstrate that the optimized RothC effectively captures SOC dynamics measured across 29 long-term field trials during 40 years. Between 1980 and 2020, the average SOC at the top 30 cm in croplands increased from 40 Mg C ha-1 to 49 Mg C ha-1, resulting in a national carbon sequestration of 1100 Tg C, with an average carbon sequestration rate of 27 Tg C yr-1. The annual increase rate of SOC (relative to the SOC stock of the previous year), starting at <0.2 % yr-1 in the 1980s, reached around 0.4 % yr-1 in the 1990s and further rose to about 0.8 % yr-1 in the 2000s and 2010s. Notably, the eastern and southern regions, comprising about 40 % of the croplands, contributed about two-thirds of the national SOC gain. In northeast China, SOC slightly decreased from 58 Mg C ha-1 in 1980 to 57 Mg C ha-1 in 2020, resulting in a total decline of 28 Tg C. Increased organic C inputs, particularly from the straw return, was the crucial factor in SOC increase. Future strategies should focus on region-specific optimization of straw management. Specifically, in northeast China, increasing the proportion of straw returned to fields can prevent further SOC decline. In regions with SOC increase, such as the eastern and southern regions, diversified straw utilization (e.g., bioenergy production), could further mitigate greenhouse gas emissions.

Methane and nitrous oxide emissions and related microbial communities from mangrove stems on Qi'ao Island, Pearl River Estuary in China.

Mangrove forests, crucial carbon-rich ecosystems, are increasingly vulnerable to soil carbon loss and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions due to human disturbance. However, the contribution of mangrove trees to GHG emissions remains poorly understood. This study monitored CO2, CH4, and N2O fluxes from the stems of two mangrove species, native Kandelia obovata (KO) and exotic Sonneratia apetala (SA), at three heights (0.7 m, 1.2 m, and 1.7 m) during the dry winter period on Qi'ao Island, Pearl River Estuary, China. Heartwood samples were analyzed to identify potential functional groups related to gas fluxes. Our study found that tree stems acted as both sinks and sources for N2O (ranging from -9.49 to 28.35 µg m-2 h-1 for KO and from -6.73 to 28.95 µg m-2 h-1 for SA) and CH4. SA exhibited significantly higher stem CH4 flux (from -26.67 to 97.33 µg m-2 h-1) compared to KO (from -44.13 to 88.0 µg m-2 h-1) (P < 0.05). When upscaled to the community level, both species were net emitters of CH4, contributing approximately 4.68 % (KO) and 0.51 % (SA) to total CH4 emissions. The decrease in stem CH4 flux with increasing height, indicates a soil source. Microbial analysis in the heartwood using the KEGG database indicated aceticlastic methanogenesis as the dominant CH4 pathway. The presence of methanogens, methanotrophs, denitrifiers, and nitrifiers suggests microbial involvement in CH4 and N2O production and consumption. Remarkably, the dominance of Cyanobacteria in the heartwood microbiome (with the relative abundance of 97.5 ± 0.6 % for KO and 99.1 ± 0.2 % for SA) implies roles in carbon and nitrogen fixation for mangroves coping with nitrogen limitation in coastal wetlands, and possibly in CH4 production. Although the present study has limitations in sampling duration and area, it highlights the significant role of tree stems in GHG emissions which is crucial for a holistic evaluation of the global carbon sequestration capability of mangrove ecosystems. Future research should broaden spatial and temporal scales to enhance the accuracy of upscaling tree stem gas fluxes to the mangrove ecosystem level.

The carbon budget of China: 1980-2021.

As one of the world's largest emitters of greenhouse gases, China has set itself the ambitious goal of achieving carbon peaking and carbon neutrality. Therefore, it is crucial to quantify the magnitude and trend of sources and sinks of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), and to monitor China's progress toward these goals. Using state-of-the-art datasets and models, this study comprehensively estimated the anthropogenic CO2 emissions from energy, industrial processes and product use, and waste along with natural sources and sinks of CO2 for all of China during 1980-2021. To recognize the differences among various methods of estimating greenhouse emissions, the estimates are compared with China's National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (NGHGIs) for 1994, 2005, 2010, 2012, and 2014. Anthropogenic CO2 emissions in China have increased by 7.39 times from 1980 to 12.77 Gt CO2 a-1 in 2021. While benefiting from ecological projects (e.g., Three Norths Shelter Forest System Project), the land carbon sink in China has reached 1.65 Gt CO2 a-1 averaged through 2010-2021, which is almost 15.81 times that of the carbon sink in the 1980s. On average, China's terrestrial ecosystems offset 14.69% ± 2.49% of anthropogenic CO2 emissions through 2010-2021. Two provincial-level administrative regions of China, Xizang and Qinghai, have achieved carbon neutrality according to our estimates, but nearly half of the administrative regions of China have terrestrial carbon sink offsets of less than 10% of anthropogenic CO2 emissions. This study indicated a high level of consistency between NGHGIs and various datasets used for estimating fossil CO2 emissions, but found notable differences for land carbon sinks. Future estimates of the terrestrial carbon sinks of NGHGIs urgently need to be verified with process-based models which integrate the comprehensive carbon cycle processes.

Building soil to reduce climate change impacts on global crop yield.

Improving soil health and resilience is fundamental for sustainable food production, however the role of soil in maintaining or improving global crop productivity under climate warming is not well identified and quantified. Here, we examined the impact of soil on yield response to climate warming for four major crops (i.e., maize, wheat, rice and soybean), using global-scale datasets and random forest method. We found that each °C of warming reduced global yields of maize by 3.4%, wheat by 2.4%, rice by 0.3% and soybean by 5.0%, which were spatially heterogeneous with possible positive impacts. The random forest modeling analyses further showed that soil organic carbon (SOC), as an indicator of soil quality, dominantly explained the spatial heterogeneity of yield responses to warming and would regulate the negative warming responses. Improving SOC under the medium SOC sequestration scenario would reduce the warming-induced yield loss of maize, wheat, rice and soybean to 0.1% °C-1, 2.7% °C-1, 3.4% °C-1 and - 0.6% °C-1, respectively, avoiding an average of 3%-5% °C-1 of global yield loss. These yield benefits would occur on 53.2%, 67.8%, 51.8% and 71.6% of maize, wheat, rice and soybean planting areas, respectively, with particularly pronounced benefits in the regions with negative warming responses. With improved soil carbon, food systems are predicted to provide additional 20 to over 130 million tonnes of food that would otherwise lose due to future warming. Our findings highlight the critical role of soil in alleviating negative warming impacts on food security, especially for developing regions, given that sustainable actions on soil improvement could be taken broadly.

Can nature help limit warming below 1.5°C?

Nature-based efforts could further climate mitigation and help limit warming to 1.5°C, given that proper and immediate solutions are implemented with similar ambition as in energy and industry sectors; however, omission of natural solutions or delays in overall climate action would substantially undermine the climate target of Paris Agreement.

The role of China's terrestrial carbon sequestration 2010-2060 in offsetting energy-related CO2 emissions.

Energy consumption dominates annual CO2 emissions in China. It is essential to significantly reduce CO2 emissions from energy consumption to reach national carbon neutrality by 2060, while the role of terrestrial carbon sequestration in offsetting energy-related CO2 emissions cannot be underestimated. Natural climate solutions (NCS), including improvements in terrestrial carbon sequestration, represent readily deployable options to offset anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. However, the extent to which China's terrestrial carbon sequestration in the future, especially when target-oriented managements (TOMs) are implemented, can help to mitigate energy-related CO2 emissions is far from certain. By synthesizing available findings and using several parameter-sparse empirical models that have been calibrated and/or fitted against contemporary measurements, we assessed China's terrestrial carbon sequestration over 2010-2060 and its contribution to offsetting national energy-related CO2 emissions. We show that terrestrial C sequestration in China will increase from 0.375 ± 0.056 (mean ± standard deviation) Pg C yr-1 in the 2010s to 0.458 ± 0.100 Pg C yr-1 under RCP2.6 and 0.493 ± 0.108 Pg C yr-1 under the RCP4.5 scenario in the 2050s, when TOMs are implemented. The majority of carbon sequestration comes from forest, accounting for 67.8-71.4% of the total amount. China's terrestrial ecosystems can offset 12.2-15.0% and 13.4-17.8% of energy-related peak CO2 emissions in 2030 and 2060, respectively. The implementation of TOMs contributes 11.9% of the overall terrestrial carbon sequestration in the 2020s and 23.7% in the 2050s. The most likely strategy to maximize future NCS effectiveness is a full implementation of all applicable cost-effective NCS pathways in China. Our findings highlight the role of terrestrial carbon sequestration in offsetting energy-related CO2 emissions and put forward future needs in the context of carbon neutrality.

Peatland Loss in Southeast Asia Contributing to U.S. Biofuel's Greenhouse Gas Emissions.

Land use change (LUC) induced by biofuel production could lead to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, which potentially increase biofuel's carbon intensity. Among the sources of LUC-related emissions for soy biodiesel, the contribution from peatland loss to agricultural plantations in Southeast Asia remains uncertain. Here, we analyzed LUC in Malaysia and Indonesia and modeled its impacts on the GHG emissions of soy biodiesel produced in the United States. It shows that oil palm plantations have more than doubled over 2001-2016 and the area of palm-on-peatlands (PoP) has expanded 3.7 times. Over new palm plantations, the share of PoP is about 19% regardless of time and location and the emission factor (EF) for peatland-to-palm conversion is estimated to be 41.5 Mg CO2 ha-1 yr-1. With these updates on PoP and EF, the contribution of peatland loss (0.7-5.1 g CO2e MJ-1) to biodiesel emissions is only 40-65% of previous estimates, which reduces discrepancies among model simulations used by different agencies. Based on emerging evidence on LUC and related carbon changes, our analysis reexamines regional peatland loss and its impacts on LUC emissions modeling and provides new insights into the estimation of LUC impacts on biofuels' carbon intensity.

Methane Emissions from Wetlands in China and Their Climate Feedbacks in the 21st Century.

Wetlands are large sinks of carbon dioxide (CO2) and sources of methane (CH4). Both fluxes can be altered by wetland management (e.g., restoration), leading to changes in the climate system. Here, we use multiple models to assess CH4 emissions and CO2 sequestration from the wetlands in China and the impacts on climate under three climate scenarios and four wetland management scenarios with various levels of wetland restoration in the 21st century. We find that wetland restoration leads to increased CH4 emissions with a national total of 0.32-11.31 Tg yr-1. These emissions induce an additional radiative forcing of 0.0005-0.0075 W m-2 yr-1 and global annual mean air temperature rise of 0.0003-0.0053 °C yr-1, across all future climate and management scenarios. However, wetland restoration also resulted in net CO2 sequestration, leading to a combined net greenhouse gas sink in all climate management scenarios, except in the highest restoration level combined with the hottest climate scenario. The highest climate cooling was achieved under medium restoration, with the climate scenario consistent with the Paris agreement target of below 2 °C, with a cumulative global warming potential of -3.2 Pg CO2-eq (2020-2100). Wetland restoration in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau offers the greatest cooling effect.

Carbon dioxide uptake overrides methane emission at the air-water interface of algae-shellfish mariculture ponds: Evidence from eddy covariance observations.

Mariculture ponds are widely distributed along the coastal regions and have been increasingly recognized as biogeochemical hotspots of air-water greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes, but their source/sink dynamics and climate benefits have not been well understood. Due to strong temporal variations of GHG fluxes over mariculture ponds, previous studies based on short-term or discrete flux measurements have large uncertainty in assessing GHG budgets and their radiative effects. In this study, we examined the temporal variations of air-water GHG fluxes, net CO2 exchange (NEE) and net CH4 exchange (NME), and their environmental controls, based on one-year (2020) continuous eddy covariance (EC) measurements over algae-shellfish mariculture ponds (razor clam) in a subtropical estuary of Southeast China. The results showed that (a) annually the ponds acted as a strong CO2 sink of -227.7 g CO2-C m-2 and a weak CH4 source of 1.44 g CH4-C m-2, and thus the NME-induced warming effect offset 25.9% (12.1%) of the NEE-induced cooling effect at a 20-year (100-year) time horizon using the metric of sustained-flux global warming potential; (b) two GHG fluxes showed different diurnal and seasonal variations but both had stronger source/sink capacity in summer and more fluctuating fluxes in winter; (c) temporal variations of NEE and NME tended to be more regulated by photosynthetically active radiation and tidal salinity, respectively, but both of them were affected by water temperature and area proportion of algae ponds within the EC footprint. This is the first study to disentangle temporal variations of air-water GHG fluxes over mariculture ponds based on simultaneous EC measurements of CO2 and CH4 fluxes. This study highlights the climate benefits of algae-shellfish mariculture ponds as biogeochemical hotspots by exerting a net radiative cooling effect dominated by the CO2 sink.

Intercomparison of global terrestrial carbon fluxes estimated by MODIS and Earth system models.

Earth system models (ESMs) have been widely used to simulate global terrestrial carbon fluxes, including gross primary production (GPP) and net primary production (NPP). Assessment of such GPP and NPP products can be valuable for understanding the efficacy of certain ESMs in simulating the global carbon cycle and future climate impacts. In this work, we studied the model performance of 22 ESMs participating in the fifth and sixth phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 and CMIP6) by comparing historical GPP and NPP simulations with satellite data from MODIS and further evaluating potential model improvement from CMIP5 to CMIP6. In CMIP6, the average global total GPP and NPP estimated by the 22 ESMs are 16% and 13% higher than MODIS data, respectively. The multi-model ensembles (MME) of the 22 ESMs can fairly reproduce the spatial distribution, zonal distribution and seasonal variations of both GPP and NPP from MODIS. They perform much better in simulating GPP and NPP for grasslands, wetlands, croplands and other biomes than forests. However, there are noticeable differences among individual ESM simulations in terms of overall fluxes, temporal and spatial flux distributions, and fluxes by biome and region. The MME consistently outperforms all individual models in nearly every respect. Even though several ESMs have been improved in CMIP6 relative to CMIP5, there is still much work to be done to improve individual ESM and overall CMIP performance. Future work needs to focus on more comprehensive model mechanisms and parametrizations, higher resolution and more reasonable coupling of land surface schemes and atmospheric/oceanic schemes.

Net CO2 and CH4 emissions from restored mangrove wetland: New insights based on a case study in estuary of the Pearl River, China.

Mangroves have the potential to affect climate via C sequestration and methane (CH4) emissions. With half of the world's mangroves lost during the 20th century, mangrove restoration in mitigating greenhouse gases has been increasingly recognized. However, the carbon exchanges during restored processes still remain large uncertain. In this study, we analyzed the temporal variations of CO2 and CH4 fluxes and their environmental controls during 2019 and 2020 based on a closed-path eddy covariance (EC) system in a 12-year restored subtropical mangrove wetland, in estuary of the Pearl River, southeastern China. We also estimated the CO2 and CH4 fluxes and their climate effect from the beginning of restoration by Random Forest algorithm (RF). The EC observations showed that annually the 12-year restored mangrove acted as CO2 and CH4 sources, with net CO2 ecosystem exchange (NEE) of 82-175 gC·m- 2·a-1 and CH4 fluxes of 24.7-26.3 gC·m-2·a-1. Low vegetation gross primary productivity (GPP) and high ecosystem respiration (Re) caused net CO2 emissions in the mangroves. The estimation by RF indicated that the mangroves were always a CO2 source after the beginning of restoration, but the annual NEE was linearly decreased from 233 to 131 gC·m-2·a-1 from 2008 to 2020. The annual CH4 emissions continually increased from 19.0 to 25.8 gC·m-2·a-1 after restoration. As a result, the restored mangrove had a positive effect on climate warming, with increased GWP from 1276 to 1386 g CO2-eq ·m-2·a-1 from 2008 to 2020. This is mainly due to lower GPP and higher Re by young restored mangroves, large water area as well as low salinity induced strong CH4 emissions. Our results indicate new sights that young restored mangrove with large area of water surface may act as carbon sources. However, the long-term climate and ecosystem benefits due to mangrove restoration should not be ignored in future.

Delayed impact of natural climate solutions.

To limit global temperature rise, scientists have proposed significant potentials for climate change mitigation from protecting and managing natural systems. However, depending on the time taken for technology deployment and natural carbon gain, actual mitigation can be dramatically delayed, and total mitigation by 2030 or 2050 can be more than halved compared to the estimated potential. Delayed or lack of action on implementation would push back the timeline to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, largely undermining the Paris goals. Launching actions now and learning from past experience can help deliver climate mitigation and sustainable development goals.

Robust paths to net greenhouse gas mitigation and negative emissions via advanced biofuels.

Biofuel and bioenergy systems are integral to most climate stabilization scenarios for displacement of transport sector fossil fuel use and for producing negative emissions via carbon capture and storage (CCS). However, the net greenhouse gas mitigation benefit of such pathways is controversial due to concerns around ecosystem carbon losses from land use change and foregone sequestration benefits from alternative land uses. Here, we couple bottom-up ecosystem simulation with models of cellulosic biofuel production and CCS in order to track ecosystem and supply chain carbon flows for current and future biofuel systems, with comparison to competing land-based biological mitigation schemes. Analyzing three contrasting US case study sites, we show that on land transitioning out of crops or pasture, switchgrass cultivation for cellulosic ethanol production has per-hectare mitigation potential comparable to reforestation and severalfold greater than grassland restoration. In contrast, harvesting and converting existing secondary forest at those sites incurs large initial carbon debt requiring long payback periods. We also highlight how plausible future improvements in energy crop yields and biorefining technology together with CCS would achieve mitigation potential 4 and 15 times greater than forest and grassland restoration, respectively. Finally, we show that recent estimates of induced land use change are small relative to the opportunities for improving system performance that we quantify here. While climate and other ecosystem service benefits cannot be taken for granted from cellulosic biofuel deployment, our scenarios illustrate how conventional and carbon-negative biofuel systems could make a near-term, robust, and distinctive contribution to the climate challenge.

Changes in soil organic carbon under perennial crops.

This study evaluates the dynamics of soil organic carbon (SOC) under perennial crops across the globe. It quantifies the effect of change from annual to perennial crops and the subsequent temporal changes in SOC stocks during the perennial crop cycle. It also presents an empirical model to estimate changes in the SOC content under crops as a function of time, land use, and site characteristics. We used a harmonized global dataset containing paired-comparison empirical values of SOC and different types of perennial crops (perennial grasses, palms, and woody plants) with different end uses: bioenergy, food, other bio-products, and short rotation coppice. Salient outcomes include: a 20-year period encompassing a change from annual to perennial crops led to an average 20% increase in SOC at 0-30 cm (6.0 ± 4.6 Mg/ha gain) and a total 10% increase over the 0-100 cm soil profile (5.7 ± 10.9 Mg/ha). A change from natural pasture to perennial crop decreased SOC stocks by 1% over 0-30 cm (-2.5 ± 4.2 Mg/ha) and 10% over 0-100 cm (-13.6 ± 8.9 Mg/ha). The effect of a land use change from forest to perennial crops did not show significant impacts, probably due to the limited number of plots; but the data indicated that while a 2% increase in SOC was observed at 0-30 cm (16.81 ± 55.1 Mg/ha), a decrease in 24% was observed at 30-100 cm (-40.1 ± 16.8 Mg/ha). Perennial crops generally accumulate SOC through time, especially woody crops; and temperature was the main driver explaining differences in SOC dynamics, followed by crop age, soil bulk density, clay content, and depth. We present empirical evidence showing that the FAO perennialization strategy is reasonable, underscoring the role of perennial crops as a useful component of climate change mitigation strategies.

Increased atmospheric vapor pressure deficit reduces global vegetation growth.

Atmospheric vapor pressure deficit (VPD) is a critical variable in determining plant photosynthesis. Synthesis of four global climate datasets reveals a sharp increase of VPD after the late 1990s. In response, the vegetation greening trend indicated by a satellite-derived vegetation index (GIMMS3g), which was evident before the late 1990s, was subsequently stalled or reversed. Terrestrial gross primary production derived from two satellite-based models (revised EC-LUE and MODIS) exhibits persistent and widespread decreases after the late 1990s due to increased VPD, which offset the positive CO2 fertilization effect. Six Earth system models have consistently projected continuous increases of VPD throughout the current century. Our results highlight that the impacts of VPD on vegetation growth should be adequately considered to assess ecosystem responses to future climate conditions.

A global, empirical, harmonised dataset of soil organic carbon changes under perennial crops.

A global, unified dataset on Soil Organic Carbon (SOC) changes under perennial crops has not existed till now. We present a global, harmonised database on SOC change resulting from perennial crop cultivation. It contains information about 1605 paired-comparison empirical values (some of which are aggregated data) from 180 different peer-reviewed studies, 709 sites, on 58 different perennial crop types, from 32 countries in temperate, tropical and boreal areas; including species used for food, bioenergy and bio-products. The database also contains information on climate, soil characteristics, management and topography. This is the first such global compilation and will act as a baseline for SOC changes in perennial crops. It will be key to supporting global modelling of land use and carbon cycle feedbacks, and supporting agricultural policy development.

Life cycle energy and greenhouse gas emission effects of biodiesel in the United States with induced land use change impacts.

This study conducted the updated simulations to depict a life cycle analysis (LCA) of the biodiesel production from soybeans and other feedstocks in the U.S. It addressed in details the interaction between LCA and induced land use change (ILUC) for biodiesel. Relative to the conventional petroleum diesel, soy biodiesel could achieve 76% reduction in GHG emissions without considering ILUC, or 66-72% reduction in overall GHG emissions when various ILUC cases were considered. Soy biodiesel's fossil fuel consumption rate was also 80% lower than its petroleum counterpart. Furthermore, this study examined the cause and the implication of each key parameter affecting biodiesel LCA results using a sensitivity analysis, which identified the hot spots for fossil fuel consumption and GHG emissions of biodiesel so that future efforts can be made accordingly. Finally, biodiesel produced from other feedstocks (canola oil and tallow) were also investigated to contrast with soy biodiesel and petroleum diesel.

Evaluating the Potential of Marginal Land for Cellulosic Feedstock Production and Carbon Sequestration in the United States.

Land availability for growing feedstocks at scale is a crucial concern for the bioenergy industry. Feedstock production on land not well-suited to growing conventional crops, or marginal land, is often promoted as ideal, although there is a poor understanding of the qualities, quantity, and distribution of marginal lands in the United States. We examine the spatial distribution of land complying with several key marginal land definitions at the United States county, agro-ecological zone, and national scales, and compare the ability of both marginal land and land cover data sets to identify regions for feedstock production. We conclude that very few land parcels comply with multiple definitions of marginal land. Furthermore, to examine possible carbon-flow implications of feedstock production on land that could be considered marginal per multiple definitions, we model soil carbon changes upon transitions from marginal cropland, grassland, and cropland-pastureland to switchgrass production for three marginal land-rich counties. Our findings suggest that total soil organic carbon changes per county are small, and generally positive, and can influence life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions of switchgrass ethanol.