Gender Differences in Cardiac Organ Damage in Arterial Hypertension: Assessing the Role of Drug Nonadherence.

INTRODUCTION: Cardiac organ damage like left ventricular (LV) hypertrophy and left atrial (LA) enlargement is more prevalent in women than men with hypertension, but the mechanisms underlying this gender difference remain unclear. METHODS: We tested the association of drug nonadherence with the presence of LV hypertrophy and LA enlargement by echocardiography in 186 women and 337 men with uncontrolled hypertension defined as daytime systolic blood pressure (BP) ≥ 135mmHg despite the prescription of at least two antihypertensive drugs. Drug adherence was assessed by measurements of serum drug concentrations interpreted by an experienced pharmacologist. Aldosterone-renin-ratio (ARR) was measured on actual medication. RESULTS: Women had a higher prevalence of LV hypertrophy (46% vs. 33%) and LA enlargement (79% vs 65%, both p < 0.05) than men, while drug nonadherence (8% vs. 9%, p > 0.514) did not differ. Women were older and had lower serum renin concentration and higher ARR than men, while 24-h systolic BP (141 ± 9 mmHg vs. 142 ± 9 mmHg), and the prevalences of obesity (43% vs. 50%) did not differ (all p > 0.10). In multivariable analyses, female gender was independently associated with a two-fold increased risk of LV hypertrophy (OR 2.01[95% CI 1.30-3.10], p = 0.002) and LA enlargement (OR 1.90 [95% CI 1.17-3.10], p = 0.010), while no association with drug nonadherence was found. Higher ARR was independently associated with LV hypertrophy in men only (OR 2.12 [95% CI 1.12-4.00] p = 0.02). CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with uncontrolled hypertension, the higher prevalence of LV hypertrophy and LA enlargement in women was not explained by differences in drug nonadherence. REGISTRATION: URL:  https://www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov ; Unique identifier: NCT03209154.

Development and validation of the ASGARD risk score for safe monitoring in asymptomatic nonsevere aortic stenosis.

AIMS: Current guidelines recommend serial echocardiography at minimum 1-2 year intervals for monitoring patients with nonsevere aortic valve stenosis (AS), which is costly and often clinically inconsequential.We aimed to develop and test whether the biomarker-based ASGARD risk score (Aortic Valve Stenosis Guarded by Amplified Risk Determination) can guide the timing of echocardiograms in asymptomatic patients with nonsevere AS. METHODS: The development cohort comprised 1,093 of 1,589 (69%) asymptomatic patients with mild-to-moderate AS who remained event-free one year after inclusion into the SEAS trial. Cox regression landmark analyses with a 2-year follow-up identified the model (ASGARD) with the lowest Akaike information criterion for association to AS-related composite outcome (heart failure hospitalization, aortic valve replacement, or cardiovascular death). Fine-Gray analyses provided cumulative event rates by ASGARD score quartiles. The ASGARD score was internally validated in the remaining 496 patients (31%) from the SEAS-cohort and externally in 71 asymptomatic outpatients with nonsevere AS from six Copenhagen hospitals. RESULTS: The ASGARD score comprises updated measurements of heart rate and age- and sex-adjusted N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide upon transaortic maximal velocity (Vmax) from the previous year. The ASGARD score had high predictive accuracy across all cohorts (external validation: area under the curve: 0.74 [95% CI, 0.62-0.86]), and similar to an updated Vmax measurement. An ASGARD score ≤50% was associated with AS-related event rates ≤5% for a minimum of 15 months. CONCLUSION: The ASGARD score could provide a personalized and safe surveillance alternative to routinely planned echocardiograms, so physicians can prioritize echocardiograms for high-risk patients.

In this study, we developed and examined the potential of the novel ASGARD risk score to tailor personalized follow-up intervals for diagnostic heart scans, incorporating updated heart rate and blood marker measurements along with the heart scan data from the previous year. Patients with the ASGARD risk score within the lowest 50% had a low annual risk of aortic valve-related events (less than 5%) for a minimum of 15 months.In clinical settings, the ASGARD score could provide a personalized and safe monitoring alternative to routine heart scans, prioritizing the diagnostic heart scans for high-risk patients.

Association of high-sensitivity troponin T with outcomes in asymptomatic non-severe aortic stenosis: a post-hoc substudy of the SEAS trial.

Background: High-sensitivity Troponin T (hsTnT), a biomarker of cardiomyocyte overload and injury, relates to aortic valve replacement (AVR) and mortality in severe aortic stenosis (AS). However, its prognostic value remains unknown in asymptomatic patients with AS. We aimed to investigate if an hsTnT level >14 pg/mL (above upper limit of normal 99th percentile) is associated with echocardiographic AS-severity, subsequent AVR, ischaemic coronary events (ICE), and mortality in asymptomatic patients with non-severe AS. Methods: In this post-hoc sub-analysis of the multicentre, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled SEAS trial (ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT00092677), we included asymptomatic patients with mild to moderate-severe AS. We ascertained baseline and 1-year hsTnT concentrations and examined the association between baseline levels and the risk of the primary composite endpoint, defined as the first event of all-cause mortality, isolated AVR (without coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG)), or ICE. Multivariable regressions and competing risk analyses examined associations of hsTnT level >14 pg/mL with clinical correlates and 5-year risk of the primary endpoint. Findings: Between January 6, 2003, and March 4, 2004, a total of 1873 patients were enrolled in the SEAS trial, and 1739 patients were included in this post-hoc sub-analysis. Patients had a mean (SD) age of 67.5 (9.7) years, 61.0% (1061) were men, 17.4% (302) had moderate-severe AS, and 26.0% (453) had hsTnT level >14 pg/mL. The median hsTnT difference from baseline to 1-year was 0.8 pg/mL (IQR, -0.4 to 2.3). In adjusted linear regression, log(hsTnT) did not correlate with echocardiographic AS severity (p = 0.36). In multivariable Cox regression, a hsTnT level >14 pg/mL vs. hsTnT ≤14 pg/mL was associated with an increased risk of the primary composite endpoint (HR, 1.41; 95% CI, 1.18-1.70; p = 0.0002). In a competing risk model of first of the individual components of the primary endpoint, a hsTnT level >14 pg/mL was associated with ICE risk (HR 1.71; 95% CI, 1.23-2.38; p = 0.0013), but not with isolated AVR (p = 0.064) or all-cause mortality (p = 0.49) as the first event. Interpretation: hsTnT level is within the reference range (≤14 pg/mL) in 3 out of 4 non-ischaemic patients with asymptomatic mild-to-moderate AS and remains stable during a 1-year follow-up regardless of AS-severity. An hsTnT level >14 pg/mL was mainly associated with subsequent ICE, which suggest that hsTnT concentration is primarily a risk marker of subclinical coronary atherosclerotic disease. Funding: Merck & Co., Inc., the Schering-Plough Corporation, the Interreg IVA program, Roche Diagnostics Ltd., and Gangstedfonden. Open access publication fee funding provided by prof. Olav W. Nielsen and Department of Cardiology, Bispebjerg University Hospital, Denmark.

Prognosis in asymptomatic patients with discordantly graded aortic valve stenosis based on pressure recovery adjusted valve area.

OBJECTIVE: We hypothesised that patients with asymptomatic aortic stenosis (AS) who remain with discordantly graded aortic valve stenosis (DGAS) after adjustment for pressure recovery in the aortic root represents a subgroup of patients with increased cardiovascular risk. METHODS: Data from 1353 patients with asymptomatic mild-moderate AS and preserved left ventricular ejection fraction enrolled in the Simvastatin and Ezetimibe in AS study was used. DGAS was identified as combined pressure adjusted valve area (energy loss) <1.0 cm² and mean aortic gradient<40 mm Hg (DGASEL). Outcome was assessed in Cox regression analysis and reported as HR and 95% CI. RESULTS: DGASEL was found in 196 (14.5%) patients at baseline, and was associated with older age, female sex, smaller aortic annulus diameter, lower heart rate, more extensive valve calcification and low flow (all p<0.05). In Cox regression analysis, DGASEL was associated with higher rate of heart failure (HF) hospitalisation (HR 3.31 (95% CI 1.54 to 7.09)), cardiovascular death (HR 2.63 (95% CI 1.34 to 5.17)) and all-cause mortality (HR 1.73 (95% CI 1.04 to 2.87)) independent of confounders including low flow and aortic valve calcification (all p<0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Patients with asymptomatic AS who remain with discordant grading after adjustment for pressure recovery have increased risk for HF and death. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT00092677.

Association of Annual N-Terminal Pro-Brain Natriuretic Peptide Measurements With Clinical Events in Patients With Asymptomatic Nonsevere Aortic Stenosis: A Post Hoc Substudy of the SEAS Trial.

IMPORTANCE: Recent studies have questioned the presumed low-risk status of patients with asymptomatic nonsevere aortic stenosis (AS). Whether annual N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) measurements are useful for risk assessment is unknown. OBJECTIVE: To assess the association of annual NT-proBNP measurements with clinical outcomes in patients with nonsevere AS. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Analysis of annual NT-proBNP concentrations in the multicenter, double-blind Simvastatin and Ezetimibe in Aortic Stenosis (SEAS) randomized clinical trial was performed. SEAS was conducted from January 6, 2003, to April 1, 2008. Blood samples were analyzed in 2016, and data analysis was performed from February 10 to October 10, 2021. SEAS included 1873 patients with asymptomatic AS not requiring statin therapy with transaortic maximal flow velocity from 2.5 to 4.0 m/s and preserved ejection fraction. This substudy included 1644 patients (87.8%) with available blood samples at baseline and year 1. EXPOSURES: Increased age- and sex-adjusted NT-proBNP concentrations at year 1 and a 1.5-fold or greater relative NT-proBNP concentration change from baseline to year 1. Moderate AS was defined as baseline maximal flow velocity greater than or equal to 3.0 m/s. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Aortic valve events (AVEs), which are a composite of aortic valve replacement, cardiovascular death, or incident heart failure due to AS progression, were noted. Landmark analyses from year 1 examined the association of NT-proBNP concentrations with outcomes. RESULTS: Among 1644 patients, 996 were men (60.6%); mean (SD) age was 67.5 (9.7) years. Adjusted NT-proBNP concentrations were within the reference range (normal) in 1228 of 1594 patients (77.0%) with NT-proBNP values available at baseline and in 1164 of 1644 patients (70.8%) at year 1. During the next 2 years of follow-up, the AVE rates per 100 patient-years for normal vs increased adjusted NT-proBNP levels at year 1 were 1.39 (95% CI, 0.86-2.23) vs 7.05 (95% CI, 4.60-10.81) for patients with mild AS (P < .01), and 10.38 (95% CI, 8.56-12.59) vs 26.20 (95% CI, 22.03-31.15) for those with moderate AS (P < .01). Corresponding all-cause mortality rates were 1.05 (95% CI, 0.61-1.81) vs 4.17 (95% CI, 2.42-7.19) for patients with mild AS (P < .01), and 1.60 (95% CI, 0.99-2.57) vs 4.78 (95% CI, 3.32-6.87) for those with moderate AS (P < .01). In multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models, the combination of a 1-year increased adjusted NT-proBNP level and 1.5-fold or greater NT-proBNP level change from baseline was associated with the highest AVE rates in both patients with mild AS (hazard ratio, 8.12; 95% CI, 3.53-18.66; P < .001) and those with moderate AS (hazard ratio, 4.05; 95% CI, 2.84-5.77; P < .001). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: The findings of this study suggest that normal NT-proBNP concentrations at 1-year follow-up are associated with low AVE and all-cause mortality rates in patients with asymptomatic nonsevere AS. Conversely, an increased 1-year NT-proBNP level combined with a 50% or greater increase from baseline may be associated with high AVE rates. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT00092677.

Prognostic impact of impaired left ventricular midwall function during progression of aortic stenosis.

OBJECTIVE: In hypertension, indexes of midwall left ventricular (LV) function may identify patients at higher cardiovascular (CV) risk independent of normal LV ejection fraction (EF). We analyzed the association of baseline and new-onset LV midwall dysfunction with CV outcome in a large population of patients with asymptomatic aortic stenosis (AS). METHODS: One thousand four hundred seventy-eight patients with asymptomatic AS and normal EF (≥50%) at baseline in the Simvastatin Ezetimibe in Aortic Stenosis (SEAS) study were followed for a median of 4.3 years. LV systolic function was assessed by biplane EF and midwall shortening (MWS, low if <14% in men/16% in women) at baseline and annual echocardiographic examinations. RESULTS: One hundred twenty-three CV deaths and heart failure hospitalizations occurred during follow-up. In Cox analyses, adjusting for age, gender, body mass index, hypertension, EF, AS severity, LV hypertrophy and systemic arterial compliance, low baseline MWS predicted 61% higher risk of a major CV event and a twofold higher risk of death and heart failure hospitalization (P < .05). New-onset low MWS developed in 574 patients, particularly in elderly women with higher blood pressure and more severe AS (P < .05). In time-varying Cox analysis, new-onset low MWS was associated with a twofold higher risk of CV death and heart failure hospitalization, independent of changes over time in EF, AS severity, LV hypertrophy and systemic arterial compliance (P < .05). CONCLUSIONS: Low MWS develops in a large proportion of patients with AS and normal EF during valve disease progression and is a marker of increased CV risk.

Antihypertensive Treatment With ß-Blockade in Patients With Asymptomatic Aortic Stenosis and Association With Cardiovascular Events.

BACKGROUND: Patients with aortic stenosis (AS) often have concomitant hypertension. Antihypertensive treatment with a ß-blocker (Bbl) is frequently avoided because of fear of depression of left ventricular function. However, it remains unclear whether antihypertensive treatment with a Bbl is associated with increased risk of cardiovascular events in patients with asymptomatic mild to moderate AS. METHODS AND RESULTS: We did a post hoc analysis of 1873 asymptomatic patients with mild to moderate AS and preserved left ventricular ejection fraction in the SEAS (Simvastatin and Ezetimibe in Aortic Stenosis) study. Propensity-matched Cox regression and competing risk analyses were used to assess risk ratios for all-cause mortality, sudden cardiac death, and cardiovascular death. A total of 932 (50%) patients received Bbl at baseline. During a median follow-up of 4.3±0.9 years, 545 underwent aortic valve replacement, and 205 died; of those, 101 were cardiovascular deaths, including 40 sudden cardiovascular deaths. In adjusted analyses, Bbl use was associated with lower risk of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio 0.5, 95% confidence interval 0.3-0.7, P<0.001), cardiovascular death (hazard ratio 0.4, 95% confidence interval 0.2-0.7, P<0.001), and sudden cardiac death (hazard ratio 0.2, 95% confidence interval 0.1-0.6, P=0.004). This was confirmed in competing risk analyses (all P<0.004). No interaction was detected with AS severity (all P>0.1). CONCLUSIONS: In post hoc analyses Bbl therapy did not increase the risk of all-cause mortality, sudden cardiac death, or cardiovascular death in patients with asymptomatic mild to moderate AS. A prospective study may be warranted to determine if Bbl therapy is in fact beneficial. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00092677.

Impact of stroke volume on cardiovascular risk during progression of aortic valve stenosis.

OBJECTIVE: In severe aortic valve stenosis (AS), low left ventricular (LV) stroke volume has been associated with increased cardiovascular (CV) mortality, but this association has not been explored during progression of AS in a large prospective study. METHODS: In 1671 patients from the Simvastatin Ezetimibe in Aortic Stenosis (SEAS) study, the association of stroke volume indexed for body surface area (SVI) with major CV events during a median of 4.3-year follow-up was assessed in Cox and time-varying Cox regression analyses. Low SVI was defined as <35 mL/m2. RESULTS: Peak aortic jet velocity in the total study population was 3.1 ±0.7 m/s. Low SVI was found in 23% at baseline and associated with higher age, body mass index (BMI), heart rate and global LV load, and with lower mean aortic gradient, aortic valve area index, energy loss index, LV mass and ejection fraction and more often inconsistent AS grading (all p<0.05). A 5 mL/m2 lower SVI at baseline was associated with higher HRs of major CV events (n=544) (HR 1.09, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.13, p<0.001) and higher total mortality (n=147) (HR 1.08, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.16, p=0.038), independent of age, sex, atrial fibrillation, mean aortic gradient, LV ejection fraction, LV mass, BMI and study treatment. Adjusting for the same covariates, low SVI at baseline and in-study low SVI were also associated with increased rate of major CV events. CONCLUSION: In patients with AS in the SEAS study, lower baseline SVI was associated with higher HR of major CV events and total mortality independent of major confounders. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT00092677: Results.

Relation of Left Ventricular Mass to Prognosis in Initially Asymptomatic Mild to Moderate Aortic Valve Stenosis.

BACKGROUND: The prognostic importance of left ventricular (LV) mass in nonsevere asymptomatic aortic stenosis has not been documented in a large prospective study. METHODS AND RESULTS: Cox regression analysis was used to assess the impact of echocardiographic LV mass on rate of major cardiovascular events in 1656 patients (mean age, 67 years; 39.6% women) with mild-to-moderate asymptomatic aortic stenosis participating in the Simvastatin Ezetimibe in Aortic Stenosis (SEAS) study. Patients were followed during 4.3 years of randomized treatment with combined simvastatin 40 mg and ezetimibe 10 mg daily or placebo. At baseline, LV mass index was 45.9+14.9 g/m(2.7), and peak aortic jet velocity was 3.09+0.54 m/s. During follow-up, 558 major cardiovascular events occurred. In Cox regression analyses, 1 SD (15 g/m(2.7)) higher baseline LV mass index predicted increases in hazards of 12% for major cardiovascular events, 28% for ischemic cardiovascular events, 34% for cardiovascular mortality, and 23% for combined total mortality and hospitalization for heart failure (all P<0.01), independent of confounders. In time-varying models, taking the progressive increase in LV mass index during follow-up into account, 1 SD higher in-study LV mass index was consistently associated with 13% to 61% higher hazard for cardiovascular events (all P<0.01), independent of age, sex, body mass index, valvuloarterial impedance, LV ejection fraction and concentricity, and the presence of concomitant hypertension. CONCLUSIONS: Higher LV mass index is independently associated with increased cardiovascular morbidity and mortality during progression of aortic stenosis. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00092677.

Resting heart rate and risk of adverse cardiovascular outcomes in asymptomatic aortic stenosis: the SEAS study.

BACKGROUND: An elevated resting heart rate (RHR) may be an early sign of cardiac failure, but its prognostic value during watchful waiting in asymptomatic aortic stenosis (AS) is largely unknown. METHODS: RHR was determined by annual ECGs in the Simvastatin and Ezetimibe in Aortic Stenosis (SEAS) study of asymptomatic mild-to-moderate AS patients. Primary endpoint in this substudy was major cardiovascular events (MCEs) and secondary outcomes its individual components. Multivariable Cox-models using serially-measured RHR were used to examine the prognostic impact of RHR per se. RESULTS: 1563 patients were followed for a mean of 4.3years (6751 patient-years of follow-up), 553 (35%) MCEs occurred, 10% (n=151) died, including 75 cardiovascular deaths. In multivariable analysis, baseline RHR was independently associated with MCEs (HR 1.1 per 10min(-1) faster, 95% CI: 1.0-1.3) and cardiovascular mortality (HR 1.3 per 10min(-1) faster, 95% CI: 1.0-1.7, both p≤0.03). Updating RHR with annual in-study reexaminations, time-varying RHR was highly associated with excess MCEs (HR 1.1 per 10min(-1) faster, 95% CI: 1.1-1.3) and cardiovascular mortality (HR 1.4 per 10min(-1) faster, 95% CI: 1.2-1.7, both p≤0.006). The association of RHR with MCEs and cardiovascular mortality was not dependent on atrial fibrillation status (both p≥0.06 for interaction). CONCLUSIONS: RHR is independently associated with MCEs and cardiovascular death in asymptomatic AS (Clinicaltrials.gov; unique identifier NCT00092677).

Usefulness of the electrocardiogram in predicting cardiovascular mortality in asymptomatic adults with aortic stenosis (from the Simvastatin and Ezetimibe in Aortic Stenosis Study).

Hypertension and coronary heart disease are common in aortic stenosis (AS) and may impair prognosis for similar AS severity. Different changes in the electrocardiogram may be reflective of the separate impacts of AS, hypertension, and coronary heart disease, which could lead to enhanced risk stratification in AS. The aim of this study was therefore to examine if combining prognostically relevant electrocardiographic (ECG) findings improves prediction of cardiovascular mortality in asymptomatic AS. All patients with baseline electrocardiograms in the SEAS study were included. The primary end point was cardiovascular death. Backward elimination (p >0.01) identified heart rate, Q waves, and Cornell voltage-duration product as independently associated with cardiovascular death. Multivariate logistic and Cox regression models were used to evaluate if these 3 ECG variables improved prediction of cardiovascular death. In 1,473 patients followed for a mean of 4.3 years (6,362 patient-years of follow-up), 70 cardiovascular deaths (5%) occurred. In multivariate analysis, heart rate (hazard ratio [HR] 1.5 per 11.2 minute(-1) [1 SD], 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.2 to 1.8), sum of Q-wave amplitude (HR 1.3 per 2.0 mm [1 SD], 95% CI 1.1 to 1.6), and Cornell voltage-duration product (HR 1.4 per 763 mm × ms [1 SD], 95% CI 1.2 to 1.7) remained independently associated with cardiovascular death. Combining the prognostic information contained in each of the 3 ECG variables improved integrated discrimination for prediction of cardiovascular death by 2.5%, net reclassification by 14.3%, and area under the curve by 0.06 (all p ≤0.04) beyond other important risk factors. ECG findings add incremental predictive information for cardiovascular mortality in asymptomatic patients with AS.

Renin-angiotensin system inhibition is not associated with increased sudden cardiac death, cardiovascular mortality or all-cause mortality in patients with aortic stenosis.

BACKGROUND: Renin-angiotensin system inhibition (RASI) is frequently avoided in aortic stenosis (AS) patients because of fear of hypotension. We evaluated if RASI with angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor (ACEI) or angiotensin receptor blocker (ARB) increased mortality in patients with mild to moderate AS. METHODS: All patients (n=1873) from the Simvastatin and Ezetimibe in Aortic Stenosis study: asymptomatic patients with AS and preserved left ventricular (LV) ejection fraction were included. Risks of sudden cardiac death (SCD), cardiovascular death and all-cause mortality according to RASI treatment were analyzed by multivariable time-varying Cox models and propensity score matched analyses. RESULTS: 769 (41%) patients received RASI. During a median follow-up of 4.3 ± 0.9 years, 678 patients were categorized as having severe AS, 545 underwent aortic valve replacement, 40 SCDs, 103 cardiovascular and 205 all-cause deaths occurred. RASI was not associated with SCD (HR: 1.19 [95%CI: 0.50-2.83], p=0.694), cardiovascular (HR: 1.05 [95%CI: 0.62-1.77], p=0.854) or all-cause mortality (HR: 0.81 [95%CI: 0.55-1.20], p=0.281). This was confirmed in propensity matched analysis (all p>0.05). In separate analyses, RASI was associated with larger reduction in systolic blood pressure (p=0.001) and less progression of LV mass (p=0.040). CONCLUSIONS: RASI was not associated with SCD, cardiovascular or all-cause mortality in asymptomatic AS patients. However, RASI was associated with a potentially beneficial decrease in blood pressure and reduced LV mass progression.

Stroke in patients with aortic stenosis: the Simvastatin and Ezetimibe in Aortic Stenosis study.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: There are limited data on risk stratification of stroke in aortic stenosis. This study examined predictors of stroke in aortic stenosis, the prognostic implications of stroke, and how aortic valve replacement (AVR) with or without concomitant coronary artery bypass grafting influenced the predicted outcomes. METHODS: Patients with mild-to-moderate aortic stenosis enrolled in the Simvastatin and Ezetimibe in Aortic Stenosis (SEAS) study. Diabetes mellitus, known atherosclerotic disease, and oral anticoagulation were exclusion criteria. Ischemic stroke was the primary end point, and poststroke survival a secondary outcome. Cox models treating AVR as a time-varying covariate were adjusted for atrial fibrillation and congestive heart failure, hypertension, age≥75 years, diabetes mellitus, stroke/transient ischemic attack, vascular disease, age 65-74 years and female sex (CHA2DS2-VASc) scores. RESULTS: One thousand five hundred nine patients were followed for 4.3±0.8 years (6529 patient-years). Rates of stroke were 5.6 versus 21.8 per 1000 patient-years pre- and post-AVR; 429 (28%) underwent AVR and 139 (9%) died. Atrial fibrillation (hazard ratio [HR], 2.7; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.1-6.6), CHA2DS2-VASc score (HR 1.4 per unit; 95% CI, 1.1-1.8), diastolic blood pressure (HR, 1.4 per 10 mm Hg; 95% CI, 1.1-1.8), and AVR with concomitant coronary artery bypass grafting (HR, 3.2; 95% CI, 1.4-7.2, all P≤0.026) were independently associated with stroke. Incident stroke predicted death (HR, 8.1; 95% CI, 4.7-14.0; P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with aortic stenosis not prescribed oral anticoagulation, atrial fibrillation, AVR with concomitant coronary artery bypass grafting, and CHA2DS2-VASc score were the major predictors of stroke. Incident stroke was strongly associated with mortality. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00092677.

Indexing aortic valve area by body surface area increases the prevalence of severe aortic stenosis.

BACKGROUND: To account for differences in body size in patients with aortic stenosis, aortic valve area (AVA) is divided by body surface area (BSA) to calculate indexed AVA (AVAindex). Cut-off values for severe stenosis are <1.0 cm2 for AVA and <0.6 cm2/m2 for AVAindex. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the influence of indexation on the prevalence of severe aortic stenosis and on the predictive accuracy regarding clinical outcome. METHODS: Echocardiographic and anthropometric data from a retrospective cohort of 2843 patients with aortic stenosis (jet velocity >2.5 m/s) and from 1525 patients prospectively followed in the simvastatin and ezetimibe in aortic stenosis (SEAS) trial were analysed. RESULTS: The prevalence of severe stenosis increased with the AVAindex criterion compared to AVA from 71% to 80% in the retrospective cohort, and from 29% to 44% in SEAS (both p<0.001). Overall, the predictive accuracy for aortic valve events was virtually identical for AVA and AVAindex in the SEAS population (mean follow-up of 46 months; area under the receiver operating characteristic curve: 0.67 (95% CI 0.64 to 0.70) vs. 0.68 (CI 0.65 to 0.71) (NS). However, 213 patients additionally categorised as severe by AVAindex experienced significantly less valve related events than those fulfilling only the AVA criterion (p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Indexing AVA by BSA (AVAindex) significantly increases the prevalence of patients with criteria for severe stenosis by including patients with a milder degree of the disease without improving the predictive accuracy for aortic valve related events.

Left atrial size and function as predictors of new-onset of atrial fibrillation in patients with asymptomatic aortic stenosis: the simvastatin and ezetimibe in aortic stenosis study.

BACKGROUND: Left atrial (LA) size and function change with chronically increased left ventricular (LV) filling pressures. It remains unclear whether these variations in LA parameters can predict new-onset atrial fibrillation (AF) in asymptomatic patients with aortic stenosis (AS). METHODS: Data were obtained in asymptomatic patients with mild-to-moderate AS (2.5 ≤ transaortic Doppler velocity ≤ 4.0m/s), preserved LV ejection fraction (EF), no previous AF, and were enrolled in the Simvastatin and Ezetimibe in Aortic Stenosis study. Peak-aortic velocity, LA(max) volume & LAmin volume were measured by echocardiography. LA conduit (LA(con)) volume was defined as LV stroke volume-LA stroke volume. LA function was expressed as LA-EF (LA(max)-LAmin volume/LA(max)). RESULTS: In the 1159 patients included, new-onset AF occurred in 71 patients (6.1%) within a mean follow-up of 4.2 ± 0.9 years. Mean age was 66 ± 9.7 years, aortic valve area index 0.6 ± 0.2 cm(2)/m(2), LV mass 99.2 ± 29.7 g/m(2), LA(max) volume 34.6 ± 12.0 mL/m(2), LAmin volume 17.9 ± 9.3 mL/m(2), LA-EF 50 ± 15% and LA(con) volume 45 ± 21 mL/m(2). Baseline LAmin volume predicted new-onset AF in Cox multivariable analysis (HR:2.3 [95%CI:1.3-4.4], P<0.01), and added prognostic information on AF development beyond conventional risk factors (likelihood ratio, P<0.01). In comparison of c-indexes LAmin volume was superior to all other LA measurements. Net reclassification index improved by 15.9% when adding LAmin volume to a model with classic risk factors for AF (P=0.01). CONCLUSION: LAmin volume independently predicted new-onset AF in patients with asymptomatic AS and was superior to LA-EF, LA(con) and LA(max) volumes and conventional risk factors.

Prognostic importance of atrial fibrillation in asymptomatic aortic stenosis: the Simvastatin and Ezetimibe in Aortic Stenosis study.

BACKGROUND: The frequency and prognostic importance of atrial fibrillation (AF) in asymptomatic mild-to-moderate aortic stenosis (AS) has not been well described. METHODS: Clinical examination, electrocardiography and echocardiography were obtained in asymptomatic patients with mild-to-moderate AS and preserved left ventricular (LV) systolic function, randomized to simvastatin/ezetimibe combination vs. placebo in the Simvastatin and Ezetimibe in Aortic Stenosis (SEAS) study. At inclusion, AF was categorized as episodic or longstanding. Rhythm change was assessed on annual in-study electrocardiograms. Impact of AF on cardiovascular morbidity and mortality was determined by adjusting for biomarkers, clinical- and echocardiographic covariates. RESULTS: Mean follow-up was 4.3 ± 0.8 years (6,721 patient-years of follow-up). At baseline, episodic AF was present in 87 patients (5.6%), longstanding AF in 55 (3.5%) and no AF in 1,421 (90.9%). Incidence of new-onset AF was 1.2%/year; highest in those with impaired LV function. In multivariable analysis, longstanding AF was compared to no AF at baseline, associated with a 4.1-fold higher risk of heart failure (CI 1.2 to 13.8, p=0.02) and a 4.8-fold higher risk of non-hemorrhagic stroke (CI 1.7 to 13.6, p=0.003). CONCLUSION: Rate of AF is moderate in asymptomatic AS. Longstanding but not episodic AF was, independently predictive of increased risk of heart failure and non-hemorrhagic stroke. New-onset AF was associated with cardiac decompensation.

Hypertension in aortic stenosis: implications for left ventricular structure and cardiovascular events.

The impact of hypertension on left ventricular structure and outcome during progression of aortic valve stenosis has not been reported from a large prospective study. Data from 1616 patients with asymptomatic aortic stenosis randomized to placebo-controlled treatment with combined simvastatin and ezetimibe in the Simvastatin Ezetimibe in Aortic Stenosis Study were used. The primary study end point included combined cardiovascular death, aortic valve events, and ischemic cardiovascular events. Hypertension was defined as history of hypertension or elevated baseline blood pressure. Left ventricular hypertrophy was defined as left ventricular mass/height(2.7) ≥ 46.7 g/m(2.7) in women and ≥ 49.2 g/m(2.7) in men and concentric geometry as relative wall thickness ≥ 0.43. Baseline peak aortic jet velocity and aortic stenosis progression rate did not differ between hypertensive (n = 1340) and normotensive (n = 276) patients. During 4.3 years of follow-up, the prevalence of concentric left ventricular hypertrophy increased 3 times in both groups. Hypertension predicted 51% higher incidence of abnormal LV geometry at final study visit independent of other confounders (P<0.01). In time-varying Cox regression, hypertension did not predict increased rate of the primary study end point. However, hypertension was associated with a 56% higher rate of ischemic cardiovascular events and a 2-fold increased mortality (both P<0.01), independent of aortic stenosis severity, abnormal left ventricular geometry, in-treatment systolic blood pressure, and randomized study treatment. No impact on aortic valve replacement was found. In conclusion, among patients with initial asymptomatic mild-to-moderate aortic stenosis, hypertension was associated with more abnormal left ventricular structure and increased cardiovascular morbidity and mortality.

Left atrial systolic force and outcome in asymptomatic mild to moderate aortic stenosis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: In patients with chronic pressure overload due to hypertension or aortic valve stenosis (AS), higher left atrial systolic force (LASF) is associated with a high-risk cardiovascular (CV) phenotype. We tested LASF as prognostic marker in patients with AS. METHODS: We used baseline and outcome data from 1,566 patients recruited in the Simvastatin and Ezetimibe in AS (SEAS) study evaluating the effect of placebo-controlled simvastatin and ezetimibe treatment on CV events. The primary outcome was a composite of major CV events, including CV death, aortic valve replacement, nonfatal myocardial infarction, hospitalization for unstable angina, heart failure caused by progression of AS, coronary artery bypass grafting, percutaneous coronary intervention, and nonhemorrhagic stroke. LASF was calculated by Manning's method. High LASF was defined as >95th percentile (50 Kdynes/cm(2)) of the distribution within the study population. RESULTS: During 4.3 years of follow-up, a major CV event occurred in 38 of 78 patients with high LASF (49%) and in 513 of 1,488 (34%) with normal LASF (P = 0.01). In multivariate Cox regression analysis, high LASF predicted higher rate of major CV events (Hazard ratio 1.43 [95% confidence interval 1.01-2.03] independent of aortic valve area and LV mass index. A simple risk score including absence or presence of these three variables allowed risk stratification into low, intermediate, high and very high risk for major CV events during follow-up (22%, 28%, 38%, and 53%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Higher LASF provides additional prognostic information in patients with asymptomatic mild-to-moderate AS.

Effect of lipid lowering on new-onset atrial fibrillation in patients with asymptomatic aortic stenosis: the Simvastatin and Ezetimibe in Aortic Stenosis (SEAS) study.

BACKGROUND: Lipid-lowering drugs, particularly statins, have anti-inflammatory and antioxidant properties that may prevent atrial fibrillation (AF). This effect has not been investigated on new-onset AF in asymptomatic patients with aortic stenosis (AS). METHODS: Asymptomatic patients with mild-to-moderate AS (n = 1,421) were randomized (1:1) to double-blind simvastatin 40 mg and ezetimibe 10 mg combination or placebo and followed up for a mean of 4.3 years. The primary end point was the time to new-onset AF adjudicated by 12-lead electrocardiogram at a core laboratory reading center. Secondary outcomes were the correlates of new-onset AF with nonfatal nonhemorrhagic stroke and a combined end point of AS-related events. RESULTS: During the course of the study, new-onset AF was detected in 85 (6%) patients (14.2/1,000 person-years of follow-up). At baseline, patients who developed AF were, compared with those remaining in sinus rhythm, older and had a higher left ventricular mass index a smaller aortic valve area index. Treatment with simvastatin and ezetimibe was not associated with less new-onset AF (odds ratio 0.89 [95% CI 0.57-1.97], P = .717). In contrast, age (hazard ratio [HR] 1.07 [95% CI 1.05-1.10], P < .001) and left ventricular mass index (HR 1.01 [95% CI 1.01-1.02], P < .001) were independent predictors of new-onset AF. The occurrence of new-onset AF was independently associated with 2-fold higher risk of AS-related outcomes (HR 1.65 [95% CI 1.02-2.66], P = .04) and 4-fold higher risk of nonfatal nonhemorrhagic stroke (HR 4.04 [95% CI 1.18-13.82], P = .03). CONCLUSIONS: Simvastatin and ezetimibe were not associated with less new-onset AF. Older age and greater left ventricular mass index were independent predictors of AF development. New-onset AF was associated with a worsening of prognosis.