Confronting deep uncertainty in the forest carbon industry.

Resilience-based and service-focused approaches could reduce contentions and injustices.

How Social Considerations Improve the Equity and Effectiveness of Ecosystem Restoration.

Ecosystem restoration is an important means to address global sustainability challenges. However, scientific and policy discourse often overlooks the social processes that influence the equity and effectiveness of restoration interventions. In the present article, we outline how social processes that are critical to restoration equity and effectiveness can be better incorporated in restoration science and policy. Drawing from existing case studies, we show how projects that align with local people's preferences and are implemented through inclusive governance are more likely to lead to improved social, ecological, and environmental outcomes. To underscore the importance of social considerations in restoration, we overlay existing global restoration priority maps, population, and the Human Development Index (HDI) to show that approximately 1.4 billion people, disproportionately belonging to groups with low HDI, live in areas identified by previous studies as being of high restoration priority. We conclude with five action points for science and policy to promote equity-centered restoration.

Protected areas reduce deforestation and degradation and enhance woody growth across African woodlands.

Protected areas are increasingly promoted for their capacity to sequester carbon, alongside biodiversity benefits. However, we have limited understanding of whether they are effective at reducing deforestation and degradation, or promoting vegetation growth, and the impact that this has on changes to aboveground woody carbon stocks. Here we present a new satellite radar-based map of vegetation carbon change across southern Africa's woodlands and combine this with a matching approach to assess the effect of protected areas on carbon dynamics. We show that protection has a positive effect on aboveground carbon, with stocks increasing faster in protected areas (+0.53% per year) compared to comparable lands not under protection (+0.08% per year). The positive effect of protection reflects lower rates of deforestation (-39%) and degradation (-25%), as well as a greater prevalence of vegetation growth (+12%) inside protected lands. Areas under strict protection had similar outcomes to other types of protection after controlling for differences in location, with effect scores instead varying more by country, and the level of threat. These results highlight the potential for protected areas to sequester aboveground carbon, although we caution that in some areas this may have negative impacts on biodiversity, and human wellbeing.

Ten facts about land systems for sustainability.

Land use is central to addressing sustainability issues, including biodiversity conservation, climate change, food security, poverty alleviation, and sustainable energy. In this paper, we synthesize knowledge accumulated in land system science, the integrated study of terrestrial social-ecological systems, into 10 hard truths that have strong, general, empirical support. These facts help to explain the challenges of achieving sustainability in land use and thus also point toward solutions. The 10 facts are as follows: 1) Meanings and values of land are socially constructed and contested; 2) land systems exhibit complex behaviors with abrupt, hard-to-predict changes; 3) irreversible changes and path dependence are common features of land systems; 4) some land uses have a small footprint but very large impacts; 5) drivers and impacts of land-use change are globally interconnected and spill over to distant locations; 6) humanity lives on a used planet where all land provides benefits to societies; 7) land-use change usually entails trade-offs between different benefits-"win-wins" are thus rare; 8) land tenure and land-use claims are often unclear, overlapping, and contested; 9) the benefits and burdens from land are unequally distributed; and 10) land users have multiple, sometimes conflicting, ideas of what social and environmental justice entails. The facts have implications for governance, but do not provide fixed answers. Instead they constitute a set of core principles which can guide scientists, policy makers, and practitioners toward meeting sustainability challenges in land use.

'To prevent this disease, we have to stay at home, but if we stay at home, we die of hunger' - Livelihoods, vulnerability and coping with Covid-19 in rural Mozambique.

Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as social distancing and travel restrictions have been introduced to prevent the spread of the novel coronavirus (hereinafter Covid). In many countries of the Global South, NPIs are affecting rural livelihoods, but in-depth empirical data on these impacts are limited. We traced the differentiated impacts of Covid NPIs throughout the start of the pandemic May to July 2020. We conducted qualitative weekly phone interviews (n = 441) with 92 panelists from nine contrasting rural communities across Mozambique (3-7 study weeks), exploring how panelists' livelihoods changed and how the NPIs intersected with existing vulnerabilities, and created new exposures. The NPIs significantly re-shaped many livelihoods and placed greatest burdens on those with precarious incomes, women, children and the elderly, exacerbating existing vulnerabilities. Transport and trading restrictions and rising prices for consumables including food meant some respondents were concerned about dying not of Covid, but of hunger because of the disruptions caused by NPIs. No direct health impacts of the pandemic were reported in these communities during our interview period. Most market-orientated income diversification strategies largely failed to provide resilience to the NPI shocks. The exception was one specific case linked to a socially-minded value chain for baobab, where a strong duty of care helped avoid the collapse of incomes seen elsewhere. In contrast, agricultural and charcoal value chains either collapsed or saw producer prices and volumes reduced. The hyper-covariate, unprecedented nature of the shock caused significant restrictions on livelihoods through trading and transport limits and thus a region-wide decline in cash generation opportunities, which was seen as being unlike any prior shock. The scale of human-made interventions and their repercussions thus raises questions about the roles of institutional actors, diversification and socially-minded trading partners in addressing coping and vulnerability both conceptually and in policy-making.

Structural diversity and tree density drives variation in the biodiversity-ecosystem function relationship of woodlands and savannas.

Positive biodiversity-ecosystem function relationships (BEFRs) have been widely documented, but it is unclear if BEFRs should be expected in disturbance-driven systems. Disturbance may limit competition and niche differentiation, which are frequently posited to underlie BEFRs. We provide the first exploration of the relationship between tree species diversity and biomass, one measure of ecosystem function, across southern African woodlands and savannas, an ecological system rife with disturbance from fire, herbivores and humans. We used > 1000 vegetation plots distributed across 10 southern African countries and structural equation modelling to determine the relationship between tree species diversity and above-ground woody biomass, accounting for interacting effects of resource availability, disturbance by fire, tree stem density and vegetation type. We found positive effects of tree species diversity on above-ground biomass, operating via increased structural diversity. The observed BEFR was highly dependent on organismal density, with a minimum threshold of c. 180 mature stems ha-1 . We found that water availability mainly affects biomass indirectly, via increasing species diversity. The study underlines the close association between tree diversity, ecosystem structure, environment and function in highly disturbed savannas and woodlands. We suggest that tree diversity is an under-appreciated determinant of wooded ecosystem structure and function.

Is Green Manure from Riparian Buffer Strip Species an Effective Nutrient Source for Crops?

Agriculture needs to reduce inputs of inorganic fertilizers and close the loop on nutrients that can otherwise become environmental pollutants. This can be achieved by promoting recycling of nutrients within the agricultural landscape. We investigated the extent to which plants found in riparian buffer zones have the potential to provide nutrients to crops as a green manure, through plant growth and decomposition studies. Under controlled conditions, species typical of Scottish riparian buffer strips were tested for their ability to accumulate biomass and nutrients in tissue under N- and P-replete conditions and whether this ability enhanced the utility of the resulting green manure in promoting crop growth. In this proof-of-concept study, we found that green manure derived from riparian buffer strips did not effectively replace inorganic fertilizer and only had a significant positive effect on growth, yield, and nutrient accumulation in barley ( L.) when it was integrated with the addition of inorganic fertilizers. The individual species tested varied in the amount of P they accumulated in their tissue (1.38-52.73 mg P plant), but individual species did not differ in their ability to promote yield when used as a green manure. Our results indicate that selecting certain species in the buffer strip on the basis of their nutrient accumulating abilities is not an effective way to increase the utility of buffer strip green manure as a nutrient source for crops.

Carbon losses from deforestation and widespread degradation offset by extensive growth in African woodlands.

Land use carbon fluxes are major uncertainties in the global carbon cycle. This is because carbon stocks, and the extent of deforestation, degradation and biomass growth remain poorly resolved, particularly in the densely populated savannas which dominate the tropics. Here we quantify changes in aboveground woody carbon stocks from 2007-2010 in the world's largest savanna-the southern African woodlands. Degradation is widespread, affecting 17.0% of the wooded area, and is the source of 55% of biomass loss (-0.075 PgC yr-1). Deforestation losses are lower (-0.038 PgC yr-1), despite deforestation rates being 5× greater than existing estimates. Gross carbon losses are therefore 3-6x higher than previously thought. Biomass gains occurred in 48% of the region and totalled +0.12 PgC yr-1. Region-wide stocks are therefore stable at ~5.5 PgC. We show that land cover in African woodlands is highly dynamic with globally high rates of degradation and deforestation, but also extensive regrowth.

Aboveground Carbon Storage and Its Links to Stand Structure, Tree Diversity and Floristic Composition in South-Eastern Tanzania.

African savannas and dry forests represent a large, but poorly quantified store of biomass carbon and biodiversity. Improving this information is hindered by a lack of recent forest inventories, which are necessary for calibrating earth observation data and for evaluating the relationship between carbon stocks and tree diversity in the context of forest conservation (for example, REDD+). Here, we present new inventory data from south-eastern Tanzania, comprising more than 15,000 trees at 25 locations located across a gradient of aboveground woody carbon (AGC) stocks. We find that larger trees disproportionately contribute to AGC, with the largest 3.7% of individuals containing half the carbon. Tree species diversity and carbon stocks were positively related, implying a potential functional relationship between the two, and a 'win-win' scenario for conservation; however, lower biomass areas also contain diverse species assemblages meaning that carbon-oriented conservation may miss important areas of biodiversity. Despite these variations, we find that total tree abundance and biomass is skewed towards a few locally dominant species, with eight and nine species (5.7% of the total) accounting for over half the total measured trees and carbon, respectively. This finding implies that carbon production in these areas is channelled through a small number of relatively abundant species. Our results provide key insights into the structure and functioning of these heterogeneous ecosystems and indicate the need for novel strategies for future measurement and monitoring of carbon stocks and biodiversity, including the use for larger plots to capture spatial variations in large tree density and AGC stocks, and to allow the calibration of earth observation data.

Pre-rain green-up is ubiquitous across southern tropical Africa: implications for temporal niche separation and model representation.

Tree phenology mediates land-atmosphere mass and energy exchange and is a determinant of ecosystem structure and function. In the dry tropics, including African savannas, many trees grow new leaves during the dry season - weeks or months before the rains typically start. This syndrome of pre-rain green-up has long been recognized at small scales, but the high spatial and interspecific variability in leaf phenology has precluded regional generalizations. We used remote sensing data to show that this precocious phenology is ubiquitous across the woodlands and savannas of southern tropical Africa. In 70% of the study area, green-up preceded rain onset by > 20 d (42% > 40 d). All the main vegetation formations exhibited pre-rain green-up, by as much as 53 ± 18 d (in the wet miombo). Green-up showed low interannual variability (SD between years = 11 d), and high spatial variability (> 100 d). These results are consistent with a high degree of local phenological adaptation, and an insolation trigger of green-up. Tree-tree competition and niche separation may explain the ubiquity of this precocious phenology. The ubiquity of pre-rain green-up described here challenges existing model representations and suggests resistance (but not necessarily resilience) to the delay in rain onset predicted under climate change.

Ecosystem services from southern African woodlands and their future under global change.

Miombo and mopane woodlands are the dominant land cover in southern Africa. Ecosystem services from these woodlands support the livelihoods of 100 M rural people and 50 M urban dwellers, and others beyond the region. Provisioning services contribute $9 ± 2 billion yr(-1) to rural livelihoods; 76% of energy used in the region is derived from woodlands; and traded woodfuels have an annual value of $780 M. Woodlands support much of the region's agriculture through transfers of nutrients to fields and shifting cultivation. Woodlands store 18-24 PgC carbon, and harbour a unique and diverse flora and fauna that provides spiritual succour and attracts tourists. Longstanding processes that will impact service provision are the expansion of croplands (0.1 M km(2); 2000-2014), harvesting of woodfuels (93 M tonnes yr(-1)) and changing access arrangements. Novel, exogenous changes include large-scale land acquisitions (0.07 M km(2); 2000-2015), climate change and rising CO2 The net ecological response to these changes is poorly constrained, as they act in different directions, and differentially on trees and grasses, leading to uncertainty in future service provision. Land-use change and socio-political dynamics are likely to be dominant forces of change in the short term, but important land-use dynamics remain unquantified.This article is part of the themed issue 'Tropical grassy biomes: linking ecology, human use and conservation'.

Charcoal production in the Mopane woodlands of Mozambique: what are the trade-offs with other ecosystem services?

African woodlands form a major part of the tropical grassy biome and support the livelihoods of millions of rural and urban people. Charcoal production in particular is a major economic activity, but its impact on other ecosystem services is little studied. To address this, our study collected biophysical and social datasets, which were combined in ecological production functions, to assess ecosystem service provision and its change under different charcoal production scenarios in Gaza Province, southern Mozambique. We found that villages with longer histories of charcoal production had experienced declines in wood suitable for charcoal, firewood and construction, and tended to have lower perceived availabilities of these services. Scenarios of future charcoal impacts indicated that firewood and woody construction services were likely to trade-off with charcoal production. However, even under the most extreme charcoal scenario, these services were not completely lost. Other provisioning services, such as wild food, medicinal plants and grass, were largely unaffected by charcoal production. To reduce the future impacts of charcoal production, producers must avoid increased intensification of charcoal extraction by avoiding the expansion of species and sizes of trees used for charcoal production. This is a major challenge to land managers and policymakers in the area.This article is part of the themed issue 'Tropical grassy biomes: linking ecology, human use and conservation'.

An integrated pan-tropical biomass map using multiple reference datasets.

We combined two existing datasets of vegetation aboveground biomass (AGB) (Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 108, 2011, 9899; Nature Climate Change, 2, 2012, 182) into a pan-tropical AGB map at 1-km resolution using an independent reference dataset of field observations and locally calibrated high-resolution biomass maps, harmonized and upscaled to 14 477 1-km AGB estimates. Our data fusion approach uses bias removal and weighted linear averaging that incorporates and spatializes the biomass patterns indicated by the reference data. The method was applied independently in areas (strata) with homogeneous error patterns of the input (Saatchi and Baccini) maps, which were estimated from the reference data and additional covariates. Based on the fused map, we estimated AGB stock for the tropics (23.4 N-23.4 S) of 375 Pg dry mass, 9-18% lower than the Saatchi and Baccini estimates. The fused map also showed differing spatial patterns of AGB over large areas, with higher AGB density in the dense forest areas in the Congo basin, Eastern Amazon and South-East Asia, and lower values in Central America and in most dry vegetation areas of Africa than either of the input maps. The validation exercise, based on 2118 estimates from the reference dataset not used in the fusion process, showed that the fused map had a RMSE 15-21% lower than that of the input maps and, most importantly, nearly unbiased estimates (mean bias 5 Mg dry mass ha(-1) vs. 21 and 28 Mg ha(-1) for the input maps). The fusion method can be applied at any scale including the policy-relevant national level, where it can provide improved biomass estimates by integrating existing regional biomass maps as input maps and additional, country-specific reference datasets.

How resilient are African woodlands to disturbance from shifting cultivation?

Large parts of sub-Saharan Africa are experiencing rapid changes in land use and land cover, driven largely by the expansion of small-scale shifting cultivation. This practice creates complex mosaic landscapes with active agricultural fields and patches of mature woodland, interspersed with remnant patches in various stages of regrowth. Our objective here was to examine the rate and extent to which carbon stocks in trees and soils recover after cultivation, and detail how this disturbance and regrowth affect patterns in tree species composition and diversity over 40 years of succession in a miombo woodland landscape in southeast Tanzania. We sampled 67 areas, including plots previously cleared for cultivation, active fields, and mature woodlands for reference purposes. Sites were further stratified by soil texture to test for associated effects. Tree carbon stocks accumulated at an average rate of 0.83 ± 0.10 Mg C x ha(-1) x yr(-1), with soil texture having no clear impact on accumulation rates. Bulk soil carbon stocks on both soil types appeared unaffected by both the initial land clearance and the subsequent regrowth, which resulted in no significant changes over time. Tree species diversity in regrowing plots developed rapidly and within -10 years was equivalent to that of mature woodland. Many of the species found in mature woodlands reappeared relatively quickly after abandonment, although species composition is expected to take considerably longer to recover, with at least 60-80 years required for the compositional similarity between regrowing and mature woodlands to reach levels similar to that among nearby mature woodlands. Through impacts on ß-diversity, disturbance was also found to increase the total number of tree species present in the landscape, with many of the recorded species only found in regrowing woodlands. Our results are of relevance to carbon sequestration projects by helping to inform the potential future carbon and biodiversity benefits of restoring disturbed habitats (REDD+). At a time where the use of shifting cultivation is threatened by shifts to larger-scale, commercial agriculture, we show that secondary woodland habitats can retain considerable biodiversity value, and act as carbon sinks.

Improved allometric models to estimate the aboveground biomass of tropical trees.

Terrestrial carbon stock mapping is important for the successful implementation of climate change mitigation policies. Its accuracy depends on the availability of reliable allometric models to infer oven-dry aboveground biomass of trees from census data. The degree of uncertainty associated with previously published pantropical aboveground biomass allometries is large. We analyzed a global database of directly harvested trees at 58 sites, spanning a wide range of climatic conditions and vegetation types (4004 trees ≥ 5 cm trunk diameter). When trunk diameter, total tree height, and wood specific gravity were included in the aboveground biomass model as covariates, a single model was found to hold across tropical vegetation types, with no detectable effect of region or environmental factors. The mean percent bias and variance of this model was only slightly higher than that of locally fitted models. Wood specific gravity was an important predictor of aboveground biomass, especially when including a much broader range of vegetation types than previous studies. The generic tree diameter-height relationship depended linearly on a bioclimatic stress variable E, which compounds indices of temperature variability, precipitation variability, and drought intensity. For cases in which total tree height is unavailable for aboveground biomass estimation, a pantropical model incorporating wood density, trunk diameter, and the variable E outperformed previously published models without height. However, to minimize bias, the development of locally derived diameter-height relationships is advised whenever possible. Both new allometric models should contribute to improve the accuracy of biomass assessment protocols in tropical vegetation types, and to advancing our understanding of architectural and evolutionary constraints on woody plant development.

Savanna vegetation-fire-climate relationships differ among continents.

Ecologists have long sought to understand the factors controlling the structure of savanna vegetation. Using data from 2154 sites in savannas across Africa, Australia, and South America, we found that increasing moisture availability drives increases in fire and tree basal area, whereas fire reduces tree basal area. However, among continents, the magnitude of these effects varied substantially, so that a single model cannot adequately represent savanna woody biomass across these regions. Historical and environmental differences drive the regional variation in the functional relationships between woody vegetation, fire, and climate. These same differences will determine the regional responses of vegetation to future climates, with implications for global carbon stocks.