Estimating Excess Mortality During the COVID-19 Pandemic Between 2020-2022 in Korea.

BACKGROUND: The persistent coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has had direct and indirect effects on mortality, making it essential to analyze excess mortality to fully understand the impact of the pandemic. In this study, we constructed a mathematical model using number of deaths from Statistics Korea and analyzed excess mortality between 2020 and 2022 according to age, sex, and dominant severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 variant period. METHODS: Number of all-cause deaths between 2010 and 2022 were obtained from the annual cause-of-death statistics provided by Statistics Korea. COVID-19 mortality data were acquired from the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency. A multivariate linear regression model with seasonal effect, stratified by sex and age, was used to estimate the number of deaths in the absence of COVID-19. The estimated excess mortality rate was calculated. RESULTS: Excess mortality was not significant between January 2020 and October 2021. However, it started to increase monthly from November 2021 and reached its highest point during the omicron-dominant period. Specifically, in March and April 2022, during the omicron BA.1/BA.2-dominant period, the estimated median values for excess mortality were the highest at 17,634 and 11,379, respectively. Both COVID-19-related deaths and excess mortality increased with age. A notable increase in excess mortality was observed in individuals aged ≥ 65 years. In the context of excess mortality per 100,000 population based on the estimated median values in March 2022, the highest numbers were found among males and females aged ≥ 85 years at 1,048 and 910, respectively. CONCLUSION: This study revealed that the prolonged COVID-19 pandemic coupled with its high transmissibility not only increased COVID-19-related deaths but also had a significant impact on overall mortality rates, especially in the elderly. Therefore, it is crucial to concentrate healthcare resources and services on the elderly and ensure continued access to healthcare services during pandemics. Establishing an excess mortality monitoring system in the early stages of a pandemic is necessary to understand the impact of infectious diseases on mortality and effectively evaluate pandemic response policies.

Tracing the Untraceables: A Joint Outbreak Investigation With Law Enforcement Using a Geographic Information System.

The application of geospatial data often allows the tracing of people who are involved in activities of an illegal nature. In June 2021, we estimated the true magnitude of the spread of COVID-19 within the networks of escort-karaoke bars in Seoul, Republic of Korea, using geographic information system (GIS)-based contact tracing that was applied to our epidemiological investigation. Our joint rapid response team, composed of epidemic investigation officers and police personnel, identified 19 paper-traced cases and 158 GIS-traced cases from 5,692 confirmed cases in Seoul during the study period (June to July 2021). Our findings suggest that collaboration with law enforcement agencies and the use of overlaid satellite imagery in outbreak investigations enhances high vigilance and reduces the risk of potential breaches of human rights in the process.

Changes in the intrinsic severity of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 according to the emerging variant: a nationwide study from February 2020 to June 2022, including comparison with vaccinated populations.

BACKGROUND: As the population acquires immunity through vaccination and natural infection of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), understanding the intrinsic severity of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is becoming challenging. We aimed to evaluate the intrinsic severity regarding circulating variants of SARS-CoV-2 and to compare this between vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals. METHODS: With unvaccinated and initially infected confirmed cases of COVID-19, we estimated the case severity rate (CSR); case fatality rate (CFR); and mortality rate (MR), including severe/critical cases and deaths, stratified by age and compared by vaccination status according to the period regarding the variants of COVID-19 and vaccination. The overall rate was directly standardized with age. RESULTS: The age-standardized CSRs (aCSRs) of the unvaccinated group were 2.12%, 5.51%, and 0.94% in the pre-delta, delta, and omicron period, respectively, and the age-standardized CFRs (aCFRs) were 0.60%, 2.49%, and 0.63% in each period, respectively. The complete vaccination group had lower severity than the unvaccinated group over the entire period showing under 1% for the aCSR and 0.5% for the aCFR. The age-standardized MR of the unvaccinated group was 448 per million people per month people in the omicron period, which was 11 times higher than that of the vaccinated group. In terms of age groups, the CSR and CFR sharply increased with age from the 60 s and showed lower risk reduction in the 80 s when the period changed to the omicron period. CONCLUSIONS: The intrinsic severity of COVID-19 was the highest in the delta period, with over 5% for the aCSR, whereas the completely vaccinated group maintained below 1%. This implies that when the population is vaccinated, the impact of COVID-19 will be limited, even if a new mutation appears. Moreover, considering the decreasing intrinsic severity, the response to COVID-19 should prioritize older individuals at a higher risk of severe disease.

Risk Factors for Sudden Death Within 2 Days After Diagnosis of COVID-19 in Korea.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to analyze the risk factors for sudden death after diagnosis of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in South Korea and to provide evidence for informing prevention and control interventions for patients at risk of sudden death. METHODS: We included 30,302 COVID-19 related deaths registered in the patient management information system (Central Disease Control Headquarters) between January 1, 2021, and December 15, 2022. We collected their epidemiological data recorded by the reporting city, province, or country. We performed multivariate logistic regression analysis to identify risk factors for sudden death after diagnosis of COVID-19. RESULTS: Among the 30,302 deaths, there were 7,258 (24.0%) and 23,044 (76.0%) sudden and non-sudden deaths, respectively. Sudden death means a person who died within 2 days of diagnosis and who did not receive inpatient treatment. Underlying condition, vaccination status, and place of death were significantly associated with the survival period in all age groups. Moreover, region, sex, and prescription were significantly associated with the survival period only in certain age groups. However, reinfection was not significantly associated with the survival period in any age group. CONCLUSION: To our knowledge, this is the first study on the risk factors for sudden death after a diagnosis of COVID-19, which included age, underlying condition, vaccination status, and place of death. Additionally, individuals aged < 60 years without an underlying condition were at high risk for sudden death. However, this group has relatively low interest in health, as can be seen from the high non-vaccination rate (16.1% of the general population vs. 61.6% of the corresponding group). Therefore, there is a possibility for the presence of an uncontrolled underlying disease in this population. In addition, many sudden deaths occurred due to delayed hospital visits to continue economic activities even after the onset of COVID-19 symptoms (7 days overall vs. 10 days average for the group). In conclusion, 'continued interest in health' is a key factor in avoiding sudden death in the economically active group (under 60 years of age).

Risk factors for deaths associated with COVID-19 according to the cause of death classification in Republic of Korea.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to classify coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)-related deaths according to whether COVID-19 was listed as the cause of death, and to investigate the differences in demographic characteristics and risk factors for COVID-19 death classifications. METHODS: A total of 5,625 deaths in South Korea among patients with confirmed COVID-19 from January 20, 2020 to December 31, 2021 were selected. Excluding false reports and unnatural deaths, 5,597 deaths were analyzed. Based on death report data, deaths were classified according to whether the cause of death was listed as COVID-19 (CD) or not (NCD). The epidemiological characteristics and causes of deaths were investigated using descriptive, univariate, and multivariate statistical analyses. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated to analyze the risk factors. RESULTS: The case fatality ratio was 0.89% and increased with age. Additionally, 96.4% of the subjects had an underlying disease, and 53.4% died in winter. The proportion of NCDs was 9.3%, of whom 19.1% died at home and 39.0% were confirmed to have COVID-19 after death. Malignant neoplasms (102/416 vs. 637/4,442; OR, 1.71; 95% CI, 1.36-2.16; p<0.001) were significantly associated with NCD. CONCLUSION: This is the first study to analyze risk factors by cause of death using COVID-19 death report data in South Korea. These results are expected to be used as evidence for establishing a death monitoring system that can collect timely information in a new infectious disease pandemic.

Pediatric Deaths Associated With Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Korea.

As of September 3, 2022, 5,388,338 coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases and 46 deaths (3 in 2021 and 43 in 2022) were reported in children ≤ 18 years in Korea. Cumulative confirmed cases accounted for 67.3% of the population aged ≤ 18 years and case fatality rate was 0.85/100,000. Among 46 fatal cases, 58.7% were male and median age was 7 years. Underlying diseases were present in 47.8%; neurologic diseases (63.6%) and malignancy (13.6%) most common. Only four had history of COVID-19 immunization. COVID-19 associated deaths occurred at median 2 days from diagnosis (range: -1 to 21). Among COVID-19 deaths, 41.3% occurred before admission; 2 before hospital arrival and 17 in the emergency department. Among children whose cause was documented, myocarditis, respiratory and multiorgan failure were most common. COVID-19 associated death was seen early after diagnosis in children and public health policies to provide access to medical care for children with COVID-19 are essential during the pandemic.

Viral Shedding among Re-Positive Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 Positive Individuals in Republic of Korea.

This study investigated the infectivity of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS-CoV-2) in individuals who re-tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 RNA after recovering from their primary illness. We investigated 295 individuals with re-positive SARS-CoV-2 polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test results and 836 of their close contacts. We attempted virus isolation in individuals with re-positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR test results using cell culture and confirmed the presence of neutralizing antibodies using serological tests. Viral culture was negative in all 108 individuals with re-positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR test results in whom viral culture was performed. Three new cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection were identified among household contacts using PCR. Two of the three new cases had had contact with the index patient during their primary illness, and all three had antibody evidence of past infection. Thus, there was no laboratory evidence of viral shedding and no epidemiological evidence of transmission among individuals with re-positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR test results.

Management following the first confirmed case of SARS-CoV-2 in a domestic cat associated with a massive outbreak in South Korea.

OBJECTIVES: We analyzed how the virus spreads to local communities, based on the results of an epidemiological investigation of a religious facility in which a large group of patients was infected. Furthermore, we report for the first time in South Korea that a domestic cat was infected with SARS-CoV-2. METHODS: An epidemiological investigation was conducted to investigate the group outbreak. In addition, to verify cat-cat or cat-human transmission, we monitored whether exposed cats or humans were infected. Next-generation sequencing (NGS) of the viral full-length genome test was conducted on the positive samples from both owners and the cats. RESULTS: Total number of SARS-CoV-2 cases rose from 78 individuals, who visited a religious facility who were involved in 42 transmitted cases in the community, either through close contact with household members (47.62%) or through a group outbreak (16.67%). We observed an infected cat as well as individuals to which they were exposed. However, neither-further-cat to cat nor cat to human transmission occurred. CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 can be transmitted from humans to animals under certain conditions. Therefore, monitoring and studying the transmission of COVID-19, a novel infectious disease, between humans and animals is necessary through the One Health approach.

Herd immunity: challenges and the way forward in Korea.

Vaccination is considered to be the most effective measure for preventing the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Many countries, including of Korea, are focusing on achieving herd immunity with the goal of reaching a vaccination rate of 70-80%. However, achieving herd immunity does not mean eradicating COVID-19, and the following challenges can occur in the process of achieving herd immunity. First, as the vaccination rate is likely to slow down over time, it is necessary to promote the benefits of vaccination through risk communication strategies and provide incentives for those who have been vaccinated. Second, a booster dose may be required depending on future studies on vaccine-induced immunity. Third, since variants capable of evading immunity and with higher transmissibility can emerge, rapid contract tracing and regular community genomic surveillance could help mitigate the impact of new variants. When the impact of COVID-19 is controlled to the level of seasonal influenza, the current public health measures that have been strictly imposed on society since the beginning of the pandemic will no longer be needed. The overall response strategy to COVID-19 will need to change accordingly, based on evaluations of the level of population immunity. These changes will include more efficient and targeted contact tracing and eased quarantine measures for vaccinated close contacts and travelers. Mask wearing and a minimum of social distancing will still be required in the journey towards the end of the pandemic. The COVID-19 pandemic will end, but the virus will not disappear.

2019 Tabletop Exercise for Laboratory Diagnosis and Analyses of Unknown Disease Outbreaks by the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

OBJECTIVES: The Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has published "A Guideline for Unknown Disease Outbreaks (UDO)." The aim of this report was to introduce tabletop exercises (TTX) to prepare for UDO in the future. METHODS: The UDO Laboratory Analyses Task Force in Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in April 2018, assigned unknown diseases into 5 syndromes, designed an algorithm for diagnosis, and made a panel list for diagnosis by exclusion. Using the guidelines and laboratory analyses for UDO, TTX were introduced. RESULTS: Since September 9th, 2018, the UDO Laboratory Analyses Task Force has been preparing TTX based on a scenario of an outbreak caused by a novel coronavirus. In December 2019, through TTX, individual missions, epidemiological investigations, sample treatments, diagnosis by exclusions, and next generation sequencing analysis were discussed, and a novel coronavirus was identified as the causal pathogen. CONCLUSION: Guideline and laboratory analyses for UDO successfully applied in TTX. Conclusions drawn from TTX could be applied effectively in the analyses for the initial response to COVID-19, an ongoing epidemic of 2019 - 2020. Therefore, TTX should continuously be conducted for the response and preparation against UDO.

Contact Tracing during Coronavirus Disease Outbreak, South Korea, 2020.

We analyzed reports for 59,073 contacts of 5,706 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) index patients reported in South Korea during January 20-March 27, 2020. Of 10,592 household contacts, 11.8% had COVID-19. Of 48,481 nonhousehold contacts, 1.9% had COVID-19. Use of personal protective measures and social distancing reduces the likelihood of transmission.

Detection of Novel Coronavirus on the Surface of Environmental Materials Contaminated by COVID-19 Patients in the Republic of Korea.

This study aimed to determine the presence of SARS-CoV-2 on surfaces frequently touched by COVID-19 patients, and assess the scope of contamination and transmissibility in facilities where the outbreaks occurred. In the course of this epidemiological investigation, a total of 80 environmental specimens were collected from 6 hospitals (68 specimens) and 2 "mass facilities" (6 specimens from a rehabilitation center and 6 specimens from an apartment building complex). Specific reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction targeting of RNA-dependent RNA polymerase, and envelope genes, were used to identify the presence of this novel coronavirus. The 68 specimens from 6 hospitals (A, B, C, D, E, and G), where prior disinfection/cleaning had been performed before environmental sampling, tested negative for SARS-CoV-2. However, 2 out of 12 specimens (16.7%) from 2 "mass facilities" (F and H), where prior disinfection/cleaning had not taken place, were positive for SARS-CoV-2 RNA polymerase, and envelope genes. These results suggest that prompt disinfection and cleaning of potentially contaminated surfaces is an effective infection control measure. By inactivating SARS-CoV-2 with disinfection/cleaning the infectivity and transmission of the virus is blocked. This investigation of environmental sampling may help in the understanding of risk assessment of the COVID-19 outbreak in "mass facilities" and provide guidance in using effective disinfectants on contaminated surfaces.

Urbanization of scrub typhus disease in South Korea.

BACKGROUND: Scrub typhus is an endemic disease in Asia. It has been a rural disease, but indigenous urban cases have been observed in Seoul, South Korea. Urban scrub typhus may have a significant impact because of the large population. METHODS: Indigenous urban scrub typhus was epidemiologically identified in Seoul, the largest metropolitan city in South Korea, using national notifiable disease data from 2010 to 2013. For detailed analysis of clinical features, patients from one hospital that reported the majority of cases were selected and compared to a historic control group. Chigger mites were prospectively collected in the city using a direct chigger mite-collecting trap, and identified using both phenotypic and 18S rDNA sequencing analyses. Their infection with Orientia tsutsugamushi was confirmed by sequencing the 56-kDa antigen gene. RESULTS: Eighty-eight cases of urban scrub typhus were determined in Seoul. The possible sites of infection were mountainous areas (56.8%), city parks (20.5%), the vicinity of one's own residence (17.0%), and riversides (5.7%). Eighty-seven chigger mites were collected in Gwanak mountain, one of the suspected infection sites in southern Seoul, and seventy-six (87.4%) of them were identified as Helenicula miyagawai and eight (9.2%) as Leptotrombidium scutellare. Pooled DNA extracted from H. miyagawai mites yielded O. tsutsugamushi Boryong strain. Twenty-six patients from one hospital showed low APACHE II score (3.4 ± 2.7), low complication rate (3.8%), and no hypokalemia. CONCLUSIONS: We identified the presence of indigenous urban scrub typhus in Seoul, and a subgroup of them had mild clinical features. The chigger mite H. miyagawai infected with O. tsutsugamushi within the city was found. In endemic area, urban scrub typhus needs to be considered as one of the differential febrile diseases and a target for prevention.

Characterization of a Novel DWD protein that participates in heat stress response in Arabidopsis.

Cullin4-RING ubiquitin ligase (CRL4) is a family of multi-subunit E3 ligases. To investigate the possible involvement of CRL4 in heat stress response, we screened T-DNA insertion mutants of putative CRL4 substrate receptors that exhibited altered patterns in response to heat stress. One of the mutants exhibited heat stress tolerance and was named heat stress tolerant DWD1 (htd1). Introduction of HTD1 gene into htd1-1 led to recovery of heat sensitivity to the wild type level, confirming that the decrease of HTD1 transcripts resulted in heat tolerance. Therefore, HTD1 plays a negative role in thermotolerance in Arabidopsis. Additionally, HTD1 directly interacted with DDB1a in yeast two-hybrid assays and associated with DDB1b in vivo, supporting that it could be a part of a CRL4 complex. Various heat-inducible genes such as HSP14.7, HSP21, At2g03020 and WRKY28 were hyper-induced in htd1-1, indicating that HTD1 could function as a negative regulator for the expression of such genes and that these genes might contribute to thermotolerance of htd1-1, at least in part. HTD1 was associated with HSP90-1, a crucial regulator of thermotolerance, in vivo, even though the decrease of HTD1 did not affect the accumulation pattern of HSP90-1 in Arabidopsis. These findings indicate that a negative role of HTD1 in thermotolerance might be achieved through its association with HSP90-1, possibly by disturbing the action of HSP90-1, not by the degradation of HSP90-1. This study will serve as an important step toward understanding of the functional connection between CRL4-mediated processes and plant heat stress signaling.