Rural households' livelihood adaptation strategies in the face of changing climate: A case study from Pakistan.

Rural and agricultural communities' adaptation to climate change has gained significant attention owing to many countries' vulnerability to climate change risks. A similar trend has been witnessed in South Asia, a highly climate-vulnerable region, where research has grown dramatically considering the agriculture sector's vulnerability to climate-induced disasters. However, little attention has been paid to the adaptation of the livelihoods of rural households. This research, therefore, takes the case of Pakistan to explore livelihood adaptation strategies of rural households to climate change and investigate the factors that expedite or halt the adoption of livelihood diversification strategies. A multistage sampling design is used in this research, where 480 rural households from the Punjab province of Pakistan were selected and interviewed using stratified and random sampling approaches. A multivariate probit (MVP) regression model is employed to analyze the factors affecting households' adoption of livelihood adaptation strategies. The results show that besides adaptation of agronomic operations (agricultural adaptation strategies), rural households in the study area employed a wide range of strategies to adapt their livelihoods to climate change. These strategies include poultry and livestock farming, value addition of farm produce, trading of animals and farm commodities, small businesses (shops, etc.), daily wage labor, horticultural crop farming, and non-farming jobs. The estimates of the MVP model revealed that respondents' education, household size, income, access to a credit facility, access to farm advisory services, and access to climate forecasts have significantly influenced the choice of livelihood adaptation strategies. Based on these findings, this research recommends that the authorities should make efforts to improve farmers' understanding of the adaptation of climate change risks and educate them to adopt multiple livelihood options to improve the resilience of their livelihoods to climate-induced risks. This research has important policy implications for other countries with similar socio-economic features.

Reconnoitering NGOs strategies to strengthen disaster risk communication (DRC) in Pakistan: A conventional content analysis approach.

Risk communication is crucial since individuals need to understand how they are at risk and what proper steps to deal with flood events. Sharing information with the public opens the door for two-way communication about risks, wherein you learn about people's perspectives and work together to find ways to mitigate the risks. Beyond government scope, relief organizations play a big part in advising individuals about the likelihood of catastrophic events as they possess the commonalities that define community engagement. In numerous accounts of devastating events, the failure of risk management groups to coordinate their efforts and the public's mistrust of relief agencies are highlighted. One possible explanation for this skepticism could be relief organizations' failures in communicating risks. In addition, individuals' lack of skills and experience with catastrophes has left rural residents unprepared, which is why relief agencies need to raise their efforts or measures to communicate with people about possible risks. If these measures are uncovered, it could improve public communication and provide information for formulating recommendations to prevent fatalities. This study identifies the strategies used by relief organizations in enhancing disaster risk communication across four severely affected districts in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan. The qualitative research used semi-structured interviews with 50 participants from relief organizations, local institutions, and affected households. We employed qualitative content analysis and NVivo software to analyze the data. The findings of this study highlighted some significant strategies that relief organizations adopted in this line of work: the administration of educational and information transmission, managing obstacles in communication, and managing inter-organizational communications. The findings validate the potential for relief organizations to become change agents, facilitate communication between the public and relief organizations, and ultimately strengthen community resilience and reduce disaster risks as part of local responses.

Adoption of hand tractor technology in terrace farming: Evidence from the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH), Pakistan.

Adoption of improved agricultural technologies can help achieve the two Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) of no poverty and zero hunger by 2030. This study investigates the determinants of farmers' adoption of hand tractors in the HKH region of Pakistan using binary logit model. We also examine what facilitates and what impedes the adoption of hand tractor adoption using key informant interviews. Results show that household head education, farming experience, knowledge of hand tractor use, access to credit, extension contact, and trust in technology positively affect the adoption of hand tractor; however farm size is negatively related. The findings reveal that ethnic conflicts, political conflicts, elite capture in decision making, unavailability of functional community-based entities, weak extension-farmers contact, as well as weak inter- and intra-community linkages are key barriers affecting hand tractor adoption. Similarly, observed changes on neighbors' fields, experiencing hand tractor on trial basis, communication networks, risk observations, and trust propensities motivate hand tractor adoption in the study region. Thus, to effectively disseminate improved agricultural technologies, policymakers should consider these factors.

A multi-criteria decision-making approach to vulnerability assessment of rural flooding in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province, Pakistan.

Assessment of rural regions' vulnerability to flooding is gaining prominence on a global scale. However, researchers are greatly undermined in their efforts to make a comprehensive assessment owing to the multidimensional and non-linear link between different indicators and flood risk. Thus, a multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) approach is proposed to assess the multifaceted vulnerability of rural flooding in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province, Pakistan. This research presents a hybrid model for flood vulnerability assessment by combining TOPSIS and the entropy weight method. Households' vulnerability to flooding in rural areas is assessed through four components (social, economic, physical, and institutional) and twenty indicators. All indicator weights are derived using the entropy weight method. The TOPSIS method is then used to rank the selected research areas based on their flood vulnerability levels. The ranking results reveal that flood vulnerability is highest in the Nowshehra District, followed by the Charsadda, Peshawar, and D.I. Khan Districts. The weighting results show that physical vulnerability is the most important component, while location of household's house from the river source (< 1 km) is the key indicator for assessing flood vulnerability. A sensitivity analysis is provided to study the impact of indicator's weights on the comprehensive ranking results. The sensitivity results revealed that out of twenty indicators, fourteen indicators had the lowest sensitivity, three indicators were reported with low sensitivity while the other three were considered highly sensitive for flood vulnerability assessment. Our research has the potential to offer policymakers specific guidelines for lowering flood risk in flood-prone areas.

Environmental quality and the asymmetrical nonlinear consequences of energy consumption, trade openness and economic development: prospects for environmental management and carbon neutrality.

Economic expansion gives rise to modern and energy-efficient technologies and, thus, contributes to a decline in energy usage. Developing countries, including Pakistan, require tremendous efforts to sustain economic growth. However, to attain economic growth, these countries have to cope with greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and other environmental problems. This research focuses primarily on the asymmetric impacts of energy consumption and economic growth on Pakistan's environmental quality. Accordingly, secondary data spanning from 1971 to 2018 was used, and carbon dioxide emission (CO2) was considered a target variable (a proxy for environmental quality), whereas energy consumption (E) and gross domestic product (GDP) as a proxy for economic growth, and trade accessibility (TR) and foreign direct investment (FDI) as control variables. The nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) approach is used to verify the asymmetric co-integration between the variables selected. Moreover, to examine data stationarity and nonlinearity, we used the Zivot-Andrews structural break unit root and BDS tests, respectively. The findings confirmed the asymmetric and symmetric co-integrations among the considered variables. In addition, the causality analysis reveals that only negative shocks to TR have an effect on CO2 emissions. Similarly, negative shocks to FDI asymmetrically cause CO2 emissions. Meanwhile, GDP symmetrically affects CO2 emissions. Finally, a neutral causal response was observed between E and CO2 emissions. These findings have policy implications in terms of environmental management and carbon neutrality, and they serve as a baseline for future research.

Synergy between climate risk perception, adaptation responses, and agricultural productivity: the case of rice farming communities in Pakistan.

The climate variability in Pakistan adversely affects rice crops and undermines the food security and livelihoods of millions of rural households whose survival depends directly on rice farming. This study examines farmers' risk perception, adaptation responses, and adaptation impact on rice productivity. We employed a multi-stage sampling method for selecting 480 farmers from the rice production zone of Punjab province, a region that produces more than 60% of the total rice in the country and faces significant production decline due to climate change. We used the risk matrix method to determine farmers' perception of climate change-induced risk and used the propensity score matching (PSM) technique to analyze the impact of adaptation measures on rice yield and crop returns. Results show that farmers had high perceptions and were concerned about biological and financial risks, followed by biophysical, atmospheric, and social risks. Farmers applied supplementary irrigation, changed rice cultivation dates, changed rice varieties, resized farms, and altered irrigation application times as adaptation measures to cope with changing climate effects. Probit regression analysis showed that the adaptation measures had been largely affected by farmers' socioeconomic attributes and risk perceptions. The PSM estimates showed that all adaptation measures had a positive impact on rice yield and crop return. Specifically, the cultivation of alternative rice varieties, farm resizing, and supplementary irrigation were the most effective strategies, followed by the adjustment in cultivation dates and irrigation time. Having implications beyond Pakistan, this study suggests improving farmers' access to irrigation water, credit, and farm advisory services to facilitate the extent of adaptation.

Zig-zag technology adoption behavior among brick kiln owners in Pakistan.

This study uses the theory of planned behavior to examine the individual's intentions and zig-zag kiln technology adoption attitude in responding to carbon emissions in Pakistan. This study is based on cross-sectional data and a representative sample of 335 brick kilns owners from 11 districts of Punjab province of Pakistan is collected. Partial least squares structural equation modeling technique was used for the analysis. Results depicted that environmental concern and self-efficacy have a significant influence on attitude toward sustainable technology while subjective norms have a significant effect on intentions toward zig-zag kiln technology. A 1% increase in environmental concern and self-efficacy increases sustainable environmental technology by 24% and 58%, respectively. Furthermore, perceived behavioral control and intentions also significantly impact adoption attitude, and a 1% increase in perceived behavioral control and intentions increase the zig-zag kiln adoption attitude by 68% and 30%, respectively. Results depicted that adoption attitude is significantly determined by these explanatory variables. The study's findings provided new evidence for the government to place more emphasis on enhancing kiln owners' attitudes, social norms, and perceived behavioral control, which would lead towards the adoption of this new technique.

Livelihood diversification in managing catastrophic risks: evidence from flood-disaster regions of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province of Pakistan.

Pakistan's agricultural productivity is considered to be low despite several agriculture promotion policies. Such policies concentrate primarily on on-farm development and overlook rich prospects for off-farm diversification. Livelihood diversification of small-scale farmers plays a major role in reducing hunger and mitigating the adverse impacts of climate change. Therefore, this paper seeks to analyze livelihood diversification in managing catastrophic risks among rural farm households of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province of Pakistan. We have interviewed a total of 600 farm households through a standardized questionnaire in two districts (Nowshera and Charsadda) of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province of Pakistan that were badly affected by the 2010 flood. For empirical analysis, a logistic regression model was chosen to analyze the important attributes that are correlated to livelihood diversification of the rural households in flood-susceptible areas of Pakistan. The survey findings indicate that 50% of the total sample respondents adopted off-farm livelihood diversification strategies, while 40.5% of farm households adopted on-farm livelihood diversification strategies in managing catastrophic risks. The logistic regression model results show that attributes including socioeconomic and demographic, institutional, and risk perception significantly influenced households' choices of livelihood diversification. Also, the findings indicated a wide range of livelihood diversification constrained including climatic risks and uncertainties (23%), inadequate natural resources (17%), limited level of skills and training (15%), lack of institutional support (12%), lack of credit facilities (11%), poor infrastructure including markets and roads (16%), and lack of labor availability (4%). The study urges the need for robust climate change adaptation policies, in particular, by aiming at training initiatives, improving access to services, and enhancing institutional assistance, and better infrastructure. The livelihood of small-scale farmers could only improve if the Government pays due consideration and adopts the right policy initiatives that promote the diversification of livelihoods as part of the creation of national jobs to save many lives and improve livelihoods.

COVID-19 risk perception and coping mechanisms: Does gender make a difference?

The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) emerged as a real threat to humans, drastically disrupting everyday life in 2020-21. Although the pandemic affected people from all walks of life, irrespective of age or gender, the way the risk is perceived varies from one person to another. The pandemic risk reduction strategies can only be effective if individuals and communities respond positively to them, and for that, it is important to understand how the risk is perceived and responded to, differently by different groups of people. Gender plays a vital role in shaping risk perceptions and coping strategies, reflecting the predisposition of the public to accept health interventions and take precautionary measures. This study aims to understand the gender differences in COVID-19 risk perception and coping mechanisms - Pakistan is selected as a case study area. Following on from designing the questionnaire, which included 40 indicators grouped into domains (four risk perception and three coping mechanisms domains), an online survey was conducted, and a sample of 389 respondents was collected (248 male and 141 female). An index-based approach was used to quantify risk perception and its domains (fear, behaviour, awareness, and trust), and likewise coping mechanisms and their domains (problem, emotion, and action). Statistical tests were employed to ascertain the differences among both genders, whereas regression modelling was used to measure the effect of gender on overall risk perception and coping mechanisms. Results reveal that perceived fear and trust varied significantly between Pakistani men and women, while coping mechanisms were also notably different between the two genders. Females were found to perceive risks higher, complied more with the government's guidelines, and coped better than males in response to COVID-19. These findings imply that the gender aspect must be incorporated in designing effective communication and risk reduction strategies to efficiently address the current and potential future pandemic situations.

Complementary feeding practices and associated factors among children aged 6-23 months in Pakistan.

Premature mortality and undernutrition rates in Pakistan are among the highest in the world. Inadequate infant and young child feeding are the major causes of premature mortality and undernutrition. Yet, very little is known about the determinants of complementary feeding practices in Pakistan. Therefore, this study aims to identify the determinants of inadequate complementary feeding practices among children aged 6 to 23 months in Pakistan by using the latest nationally representative data from the Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey (2017-18). The results show that only 12% of children consume a minimum acceptable diet, 21% achieve minimum dietary diversity, and 38% reach minimum meal frequency. Multivariate regression analysis shows that child age, child weight at birth, mother's access to newspapers/magazines at the individual level, wealth at the household level, and prenatal visits at the community level are significant predictors of complementary feeding practices among children aged 6-23 months in Pakistan. These findings show that, in addition to poverty alleviation, raising awareness through health practitioners, increasing access to media, and expanding access to child and maternal healthcare can improve complementary feeding practices in Pakistan. This consequently reduces premature mortality and undernutrition.

Climate change impact assessment, flood management, and mitigation strategies in Pakistan for sustainable future.

In recent years, flooding has not only disrupted social growth but has also hampered economic development. In many nations, this global epidemic has affected lives, property, and financial damage. Pakistan has experienced many floods in the past several years. Due to economic, social, and climate change, Pakistan is at risk of flooding. In order to overcome this problem, the institutions of the country have taken various measures. However, these measures are not sufficient enough to ensure the safety of communities and areas that are prone to disasters with a rapid onset. Hence, it is imperative to forecast future flood-related risks and take necessary measures to mitigate the adverse impacts and losses caused by floods. This article is aimed at exploring floods in Pakistan, analyze the adverse effects of floods on humans and the environment, and propose possible sustainable options for the future. The aqueduct flood analyzer software was used to examine the impact of floods on gross domestic product (GDP), urban damage, and people livelihood, with several years of flood protection plans. To adequately assess the future changes, various flood protection levels and three scenarios for each level of protection were employed, which represent the socio-economic and climate change. The findings revealed that if there is no flood protection, a 2-year flood has a 50% probability of flood occurrence in any given area and may cause no significant impact on GDP, population, and urban damage. Similarly, the probability of a flood occurrence in a five-year flood is 20%, which may cause the country's GDP about $20.4 billion, with 8.4 million population at risk and $1.4 billion urban damage. Furthermore, a 10-year flood has a 10% probability of flood occurrence and may affect the national GDP by $28.9 billion, with 11.9 million affected population and $2.4 billion urban damage in Pakistan. The government of Pakistan should devise appropriate climate change policies, improve disaster preparedness, build new dams, and update relevant departments to mitigate the adverse effects of flooding.

Mapping farmers' vulnerability to climate change and its induced hazards: evidence from the rice-growing zones of Punjab, Pakistan.

In developing countries like Pakistan, agriculture constitutes the primary source of support for the majority of rural and the adjacent urban population. Despite the large part it plays in the economy, it faces significant challenges caused by climate change, such as rising temperatures, floods, droughts, and yield losses. In Pakistan, rice, which is the second most essential food crop and livelihood source for the millions of farm households, is facing significant yield reduction due to climate change. It is pertinent to consider the vulnerabilities of farm households and related factors to create a climatic-resilient farming system. The current study is aimed at mapping the vulnerability of rice-growing communities of Punjab province while considering climatic challenges beyond temperatures and rainfall changes. The Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI) was calculated for four rice-growing districts of Punjab province using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's three-indicator approach (sensitivity, exposition, and adaptive capacity). According to the results, farmers in the study area are highly vulnerable to climate change (CCVI 0.81). Specifically, the indices of vulnerability components showed that farmers have a high level of exposure (EVI 0.72) and susceptibility (SVI 0.59) to the climatic uncertainties with the least adaptive capacity (AVI 0.50). Further, the vulnerability analysis across different rice-growing regions showed that farmers, particularly in the low-yield region, are more vulnerable (EVI 0.73, SVI 0.61, AVI 0.49, CCVI 0.85) than the farmers in the high-yield region (EVI 0.71, SVI 0.58, AVI 0.51, CCVI 0.78). These findings imply that regional priority must be given despite the difference in farm performance to reduce production losses. Besides, climate-smart adaptation initiatives should be facilitated at the farm and regional levels through the implementation of appropriate policies and investment plans.

Synergy between adaptations and resilience of livelihood from climate change vulnerability: A group-wise comparison of adapters and non-adapters.

The similarities, differences, and contradictions regarding climate change adaptation and resilience by academics and practitioners have already been documented. It is the need of time to set new precedence by observing the adaptations and resilience as tools to respond to the climate variations. This study analyzed the influence of climate change adaptations and synergy between resilience from livelihood vulnerability and adaptations. A field survey of 489 farming households is conducted with the help of a well-structured questionnaire from four districts of the south part of Punjab province of Pakistan. This study uses the Endogenous Switching Regression model for the sake of analysis. The outcomes of the study reveal that age, education, family size, total land, and seed price have significant linkage with the adoption of adaptations. The synergistic effects of adaptation and resilience are also visible here as the adaptations factors are significantly contributing towards yield, per capita income, poverty, and poverty gap of the respondents. This study suggests the provision of proper education and smart technology to help in enhancing the adaptive capacity of farmers. More imperatively, adaptations to climate variations can be concluded as a remedial tool for resilient livelihood. It is believed that the present study can be considered as a guide for future research on other regions of Pakistan and neighboring countries.

Measuring education sector resilience in the face of flood disasters in Pakistan: an index-based approach.

School resilience is characterized as risk management techniques to build a safe environment for students. Recognizing the need of building disaster resilience for the education sector, this study is aimed at assessing flood disaster resilience of elementary schools in four extremely vulnerable districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province of Pakistan. This paper established the assessment tool by incorporating climate resilience indices and 16 tasks of the Hyogo Framework for action designed for the education sector. It discusses four dimensions: physical conditions of elementary schools, human resources, institutional issues, and external relationships, each with three parameters and five variables. The data were obtained for 60 variables from 20 randomly selected elementary schools. Indicators of resilience were identified, and an index-based approach was used to get the composite values of the four dimensions of resilience. Correlations between the dimensions, components, and indicators were also checked in the current study. Results show that schools in Nowshera, followed by Charsadda, Peshawar, and Dera Ismail Khan, are the most resilient to flood disasters. For all 12 parameters under 4 dimensions, the relative resilience of study districts is the same. The findings further indicated that there is a strong correlation between the pairs of human resources and institutional issues as well as institutional issues and external relationships that can also enhance human resources and external relationships. Furthermore, institutional issues are also correlated with external relationships and human resources, which indicate that there is a triangular relationship among human resources, institutional issues, and external relationships. The findings would encourage policymakers and practitioners to develop an effective plan to improve the resilience of schools using the overall resilience situation. In short, education sector disaster resilience can be achieved by integrated planning and implementation approach. In this respect, disaster managers, public and private education sectors, school staff, students, and parents need to establish synergies to devise a comprehensive plan of action to enhance disaster education.

Farmers' use of mobile phone for accessing agricultural information in Pakistan: / Papel do celular para entrega de informações agrícolas em um distrito carente da

ABSTRACT: Agriculture is considered as the main driving force in Pakistan's economy employing 45% of the country's labor force and generating 20% of national GDP Agriculture sector of Pakistan is facing numerous challenges including non-adoption of agricultural technology at the farm level, due to farmers' lack of access to the latest information. In this context, the current study focusses on the use of the mobile phone in accessing agricultural information among the farmers of the of district Muzaffargarh,Punjab, Pakistan. A multistage sampling technique was used to collect data from the two tehsils (cities/sub-districts) of Muzaffargarh formulating a total sample of 180 farmers. SPSS computer-based Software was used for analyzing the data. Results revealed that 91.2% of the farmers indicated mobile phone ownership. It was further reported that 87.20 % of the farmers used private sectors advisory staff to obtain agriculture information. Market information was ranked as the highest accessed information among the rest of farm-related use. Easy access to updated information and connectivity with stakeholders were reported as the highest perceived benefits of mobile phone use (4.63 & 4.72 mean). Findings reported that farmers' limited aptitude of Mobile phone usage and lack of awareness of information sources as major constraints in farm-related use of the Mobile phone. On the basis of findings, the current study provided recommendations and policy implications for utilizing the true potential of these ICT-enabled solutions in agriculture.

RESUMO: A agricultura é considerada como a principal força motriz na economia do Paquistão, empregando 45% da força de trabalho do país e gerando 20% do PIB nacional. O setor agrícola dos paquistaneses enfrenta inúmeros desafios, incluindo a não-adaptação da tecnologia agrícola entre os agricultores, devido a falta de acesso dos agricultores às informações agrícolas mais recentes. Neste contexto, o estudo atual enfoca o papel do telefone celular na disseminação de informações agrícolas entre os agricultores do distrito Muzaffargarhof Punjab, Paquistão. Uma técnica de amostragem em múltiplos estágios foi usada para coletar dados dos dois tehsils (cidades / sub-distritos) de Muzaffargarh, formulando uma amostra total de 180 agricultores. O software baseado em computador SPSS foi usado para analisar os dados. Os resultados mostraram que 91,2% dos agricultores tinham propriedade de telefones celulares. Verificou-se ainda que 87,20% dos agricultores contatam o pessoal consultivo do setor privado para obter informações sobre a agricultura. As informações de mercado foram classificadas como as mais acessadas entre os demais usos relacionados à fazenda (média de 41,45). O acesso fácil a informações atualizadas e a conectividade com as partes interessadas são relatados como os maiores benefícios percebidos do uso de telefones celulares entre os agricultores com valores médios de 4,63. e 4,72, respectivamente. Os resultados relataram que a capacidade limitada dos agricultores de usar o telefone celular e a falta de conhecimento das fontes de informação como principais restrições ao uso do telefone celular relacionado à fazenda. Com base nos resultados, recomenda-se a realização de sessões de treinamento com as comunidades agrícolas para criar conscientização e educá-las sobre o uso do telefone celular.