Synthesizing environmental, epidemiological and vector and parasite genetic data to assist decision making for disease elimination.

We present a framework for identifying when conditions are favourable for transmission of vector-borne diseases between communities by incorporating predicted disease prevalence mapping with landscape analysis of sociological, environmental and host/parasite genetic data. We explored the relationship between environmental features and gene flow of a filarial parasite of humans, Onchocerca volvulus, and its vector, blackflies in the genus Simulium. We generated a baseline microfilarial prevalence map from point estimates from 47 locations in the ecological transition separating the savannah and forest in Ghana, where transmission of O. volvulus persists despite onchocerciasis control efforts. We generated movement suitability maps based on environmental correlates with mitochondrial population structure of 164 parasites from 15 communities and 93 vectors from only four sampling sites, and compared these to the baseline prevalence map. Parasite genetic distance between sampling locations was significantly associated with elevation (r = .793, p = .005) and soil moisture (r = .507, p = .002), while vector genetic distance was associated with soil moisture (r = .788, p = .0417) and precipitation (r = .835, p = .0417). The correlation between baseline prevalence and parasite resistance surface maps was stronger than that between prevalence and vector resistance surface maps. The centre of the study area had high prevalence and suitability for parasite and vector gene flow, potentially contributing to persistent transmission and suggesting the importance of re-evaluating transmission zone boundaries. With suitably dense sampling, this framework can help delineate transmission zones for onchocerciasis and would be translatable to other vector-borne diseases.

Geospatial modeling of pre-intervention nodule prevalence of Onchocerca volvulus in Ethiopia as an aid to onchocerciasis elimination.

BACKGROUND: Onchocerciasis is a neglected tropical filarial disease transmitted by the bites of blackflies, causing blindness and severe skin lesions. The change in focus for onchocerciasis management from control to elimination requires thorough mapping of pre-control endemicity to identify areas requiring interventions and to monitor progress. Onchocerca volvulus nodule prevalence in sub-Saharan Africa is spatially continuous and heterogeneous, and highly endemic areas may contribute to transmission in areas of low endemicity or vice-versa. Ethiopia is one such onchocerciasis-endemic country with heterogeneous O. volvulus nodule prevalence, and many districts are still unmapped despite their potential for onchocerciasis transmission. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPLE FINDINGS: A Bayesian geostatistical model was fitted for retrospective pre-intervention nodule prevalence data collected from 916 unique sites and 35,077 people across Ethiopia. We used multiple environmental, socio-demographic, and climate variables to estimate the pre-intervention prevalence of O. volvulus nodules across Ethiopia and to explore their relationship with prevalence. Prevalence was high in southern and northwestern Ethiopia and low in Ethiopia's central and eastern parts. Distance to the nearest river (RR: 0.9850, 95% BCI: 0.9751-0.995), precipitation seasonality (RR: 0.9837, 95% BCI: 0.9681-0.9995), and flow accumulation (RR: 0.9586, 95% BCI: 0.9321-0.9816) were negatively associated with O. volvulus nodule prevalence, while soil moisture (RR: 1.0218, 95% BCI: 1.0135-1.0302) was positively associated. The model estimated the number of pre-intervention cases of O. volvulus nodules in Ethiopia to be around 6.48 million (95% BCI: 3.53-13.04 million). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Nodule prevalence distribution was correlated with habitat suitability for vector breeding and associated biting behavior. The modeled pre-intervention prevalence can be used as a guide for determining priorities for elimination mapping in regions of Ethiopia that are currently unmapped, most of which have comparatively low infection prevalence.

Consumer acceptance and preference for brown rice-A mixed-method qualitative study from Nepal.

Background: Brown rice consumption reduces the risk of diabetes. The prevalence of diabetes is increasing in Nepal; however, dietary preference remains for white rice. This study aimed to understand the perception, enablers, barriers, and facilitators of acceptance brown rice at a worksite cafeteria. Methods: We conducted a mixed-method qualitative research among 42 employees of a hospital in central Nepal. The participants tasted and rated the qualities of five different combinations of brown and white rice on a hedonic scale. We conducted eight focus group discussions (FGDs)-four before and four after tasting rice combinations. FGDs were recorded, transcribed, and coded verbatim and analyzed manually using inductive-deductive thematic method. Results: Before tasting, the participants perceived brown rice as poor in quality. After tasting, the participants found that brown rice had better quality and were willing to switch gradually starting with a 25B ratio. Eighty-three percent of participants liked a combination of 25B. Major barriers were poor perception of its quality, tradition, unavailability, lack of awareness of health benefits, and high price. Major facilitators were availability, self and family awareness about the health benefits, knowledge, the brown rice cooking process, serving with side dishes, prior tasting, and gradual substitution of brown rice. Conclusion: We found that brown rice should be promoted stepwise, first as a mixture with white rice and gradually increasing the proportion of brown rice. Brown rice acceptance can be increased by improved knowledge of its nutrition and health benefits, increasing availability, and affordability.

C-reactive Protein to Albumin Ratio among Patients Admitted to Intensive Care Unit of a Tertiary Care Hospital: A Descriptive Crosssectional Study.

INTRODUCTION: Sepsis is the most common cause of mortality among patients admitted to intensive care unit. There is emerging evidence on the role of C-reactive protein to albumin ratio (C-reactive protein/Albumin) in predicting outcomes in patients with critical illness and sepsis, admitted to intensive care unit. We aimed to find out the median value of C-reactive protein/Albumin ratio among patients admitted to intensive care unit of a tertiary care hospital. METHODS: We conducted a descriptive cross-sectional study of 110 critically ill patients (>18 years old) admitted to intensive care unit of Dhulikhel Hospital from April, 2014 to June, 2016. The ethical approval (Reference number.51/16) was obtained from Institutional Review Committee at Kathmandu University School of Medical Sciences. C-reactive protein/albumin ratio was calculated from records of patients admitted to the intensive care unit. Convenience sampling was done. Data were entered into Microsoft Excel and analysed using Statistical Package for Social Sciences version 20. Point estimate at 95% Confidence Interval was calculated along with frequencies and percentages for binary data. RESULTS: Among 110 patients admitted to the intensive care unit, the median value of C-reactive protein/Albumin ratio was found to be 3.4 (Interquartile range: 3.1-4.5). Out of these patients, 44 (39.5%) patients were septic and their median C-reactive protein/albumin ratio was 3.4 (Interquartile range: 3.1-4.5). CONCLUSIONS: Our study showed higher median C-reactive protein /Albumin similar to other studies. Sepsis is a common finding among patients admitted to intensive care unit. Monitoring of C-reactive protein/albumin level in a patient admitted to intensive care unit could be useful for stratifying patients with a high risk of developing sepsis.