Group Model Building on causes and interventions for falls in Singapore: insights from a systems thinking approach.

BACKGROUND: Falls in older adults are the result of a complex web of interacting causes, that further results in other physical, emotional, and psychological sequelae. A conceptual framework that represents the reciprocal dynamics of these causal factors can enable clinicians, researchers, and policymakers to clarify goals in falls intervention in older adults. METHODS: A Group Model Building (GMB) exercise was conducted with researchers and clinicians from academic units and public healthcare institutes in Singapore. The aim of the exercise was to produce a shared visual representation of the causal structure for falls and engage in discussions on how current and future falls intervention programmes can address falls in the older adults, especially in the Asian context. It was conducted in four steps: 1) Outlining and prioritising desirable patient outcomes, 2) Conceptual model building, 3) Identifying key intervention elements of effective falls intervention programmes, 4) Mapping of interventions to outcomes. This causal loop diagram (CLD) was then used to generate insights into the current understanding of falls causal relationships, current efforts in falls intervention in Singapore, and used to identify gaps in falls research that could be further advanced in future intervention studies. RESULTS: Four patient outcomes were identified by the group as key in falls intervention: 1) Falls, 2) Injurious falls, 3) Fear of falling, and 4) Restricted mobility and life space. A CLD of the reciprocal relationships between risk factors and these outcomes are represented in four sub-models: 1) Fear of falling, 2) Injuries associated with falls, 3) Caregiver overprotectiveness, 4) Post-traumatic stress disorder and psychological resilience. Through this GMB exercise, the group gained the following insights: (1) Psychological sequelae of falls is an important falls intervention outcome. (2) The effects of family overprotectiveness, psychological resilience, and PTSD in exacerbating the consequences of falls are not well understood. (3) There is a need to develop multi-component falls interventions to address the multitude of falls and falls related sequelae. CONCLUSION: This work illustrates the potential of GMB to promote shared understanding of complex healthcare problems and to provide a roadmap for the development of more effective preventive actions.

Incentives for Uptake of and Adherence to Outpatient Stroke Rehabilitation Services: A 3-Arm Randomized Controlled Trial.

OBJECTIVE: To determine if rehabilitation uptake and adherence can be increased by providing coordinated transportation (increased convenience) and eliminating out-of-pocket costs (reduced expense). DESIGN: Three-arm randomized controlled trial. SETTING: Stroke units of 2 Singapore tertiary hospitals. PARTICIPANTS: Singaporeans or permanent residents 21 years or older who were diagnosed as having stroke and were discharged home with physician's recommendation to continue outpatient rehabilitation (N=266). INTERVENTIONS: A Transportation Incentives arm (T), which provides free transportation services, a Transportation & Sessions Incentives arm (T&S), offering free transportation and prescribed stroke rehabilitation sessions, and a control arm, Education (E), consisting of a stroke rehabilitation educational program. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary study outcome was uptake of outpatient rehabilitation services (ORS) among patients poststroke and key predefined secondary outcomes being number of sessions attended and adherence to prescribed sessions. RESULTS: Uptake rate of ORS was 73.0% for E (confidence interval [CI], 63.8%-82.3%), 81.8% for T (CI, 73.8%-89.8%), and 84.3% for T&S (CI, 76.7%-91.8%). Differences of T and T&S vs E were not statistically significant (P=.22 and P=.10, respectively). However, average number of rehabilitation sessions attended were significantly higher in both intervention arms: 5.50±7.65 for T and 7.51±9.52 for T&S vs 3.26±4.22 for control arm (E) (T vs E: P=.017; T&S vs E: P<.001). Kaplan-Meier analysis indicated that persistence was higher for T&S compared with E (P=.029). CONCLUSIONS: This study has demonstrated a possibility in increasing the uptake of and persistence to stroke ORS with free transportation and sessions. Incentivizing survivors of stroke to take up ORS is a new strategy worthy of further exploration for future policy change in financing ORS or other long-term care services.

A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of a Randomized Control Trial of a Tailored, Multifactorial Program to Prevent Falls Among the Community-Dwelling Elderly.

OBJECTIVE: To perform a cost-effectiveness analysis of a multifactorial, tailored intervention to reduce falls among a heterogeneous group of high-risk elderly people. DESIGN: Randomized control trial. SETTINGS: Communities. PARTICIPANTS: Adults aged at least 65 years (N=354) seen at the emergency department (ED) for a fall or fall-related injury and discharged home. INTERVENTIONS: The intervention group received a tailored program of physical therapy focused on progressive training in strength, balance, and gait for a period of 3 months. They also received screening and referrals for low vision, polypharmacy, and environmental hazards. The Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB) test was assessed at regular intervals to allocate participants into either a home-based or group center-based program. The control group received usual care prescribed by a physician and educational materials on falls prevention. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) over the 9-month study period based on intervention costs and utility in terms of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) calculated from EuroQol-5D scores. RESULTS: The ICER was 120,667 Singapore dollars (S$) per QALY gained (S$362/0.003 QALYs), above benchmark values (S$70,000). However, the intervention was more effective and cost-saving among those with SPPB scores of greater than 6 at baseline, higher cognitive function, better vision and no more than 1 fall in the preceding 6 months. The intervention was also cost-effective among those with 0-1 critical comorbidities (S$22,646/QALY). CONCLUSION: The intervention was, overall, not cost-effective, compared to usual care. However, the program was cost-effective among healthier subgroups, and even potentially cost-saving among individuals with sufficient reserve to benefit.

Randomized Controlled Trial of Screening, Risk Modification, and Physical Therapy to Prevent Falls Among the Elderly Recently Discharged From the Emergency Department to the Community: The Steps to Avoid Falls in the Elderly Study.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effectiveness of a multifactorial, tailored program of physical therapy to reduce the occurrence of falls among a heterogeneous group of high-risk elderly Singaporeans recently discharged from the emergency department (ED). DESIGN: Randomized controlled trial. SETTING: Communities. PARTICIPANTS: Adults (N=354) aged ≥65 years who were seen in the ED for a fall or fall-related injuries and discharged home. INTERVENTIONS: The intervention primarily consisted of a tailored program of physical therapy focused on progressive training in strength, balance, and gait for a period of 3 months. Participants in the intervention group also received screening and follow-up for vision, polypharmacy, and environmental hazards. Participants in the control group received usual care prescribed by a physician and educational materials on falls prevention. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome measure was experiencing at least 1 fall during the 9-month study period (a 3-mo active intervention phase and a 6-mo maintenance phase). Secondary outcome measures were the occurrence of at least 1 injurious fall during the study period and a change in the Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB) score. Participants were assessed both after 3 and 9 months. RESULTS: During the 9-month study period, 37.8% of the control group and 30.5% of the intervention group fell at least once, which was not statistically significantly different (odds ratio [OR]=.72; 95% confidence interval [CI], .46-1.12; P=.146). The intervention group had statistically significantly fewer individuals with injurious falls (OR=.56; 95% CI, .32-.98; P=.041) and less deterioration in physical performance, reflected by a mean difference of 0.6 in SPPB scores (P=.029). Multivariate analyses indicated a strong interaction effect between the intervention and the presence of 2 or more major comorbidities; after accounting for this effect, the intervention program reduced the number of people experiencing at least 1 fall (OR=.34; 95% CI, .17-.67; P=.002). CONCLUSIONS: We observed that in this heterogeneous population, the proportion of participants experiencing at least 1 fall during the study period was not statistically significantly lower in the intervention group compared with the control group. Secondary analyses strongly suggest that individuals with 2 or more major comorbidities do not benefit from a tailored physical therapy program; however, individuals with less comorbidity may substantially benefit.