Impact of aerial humidity on seasonal malaria: an ecological study in Zambia.

BACKGROUND: Seasonal patterns of malaria cases in many parts of Africa are generally associated with rainfall, yet in the dry seasons, malaria transmission declines but does not always cease. It is important to understand what conditions support these periodic cases. Aerial moisture is thought to be important for mosquito survival and ability to forage, but its role during the dry seasons has not been well studied. During the dry season aerial moisture is minimal, but intermittent periods may arise from the transpiration of peri-domestic trees or from some other sources in the environment. These periods may provide conditions to sustain pockets of mosquitoes that become active and forage, thereby transmitting malaria. In this work, humidity along with other ecological variables that may impact malaria transmission have been examined. METHODS: Negative binomial regression models were used to explore the association between peri-domestic tree humidity and local malaria incidence. This was done using sensitive temperature and humidity loggers in the rural Southern Province of Zambia over three consecutive years. Additional variables including rainfall, temperature and elevation were also explored. RESULTS: A negative binomial model with no lag was found to best fit the malaria cases for the full year in the evaluated sites of the Southern Province of Zambia. Local tree and granary night-time humidity and temperature were found to be associated with local health centre-reported incidence of malaria, while rainfall and elevation did not significantly contribute to this model. A no lag and one week lag model for the dry season alone also showed a significant effect of humidity, but not temperature, elevation, or rainfall. CONCLUSION: The study has shown that throughout the dry season, periodic conditions of sustained humidity occur that may permit foraging by resting mosquitoes, and these periods are associated with increased incidence of malaria cases. These results shed a light on conditions that impact the survival of the common malaria vector species, Anopheles arabiensis, in arid seasons and suggests how they emerge to forage when conditions permit.

mHAT app for automated malaria rapid test result analysis and aggregation: a pilot study.

BACKGROUND: There are a variety of approaches being used for malaria surveillance. While active and reactive case detection have been successful in localized areas of low transmission, concerns over scalability and sustainability keep the approaches from being widely accepted. Mobile health interventions are poised to address these shortcomings by automating and standardizing portions of the surveillance process. In this study, common challenges associated with current data aggregation methods have been quantified, and a web-based mobile phone application is presented to reduce the burden of reporting rapid diagnostic test (RDT) results in low-resource settings. METHODS: De-identified completed RDTs were collected at 14 rural health clinics as part of a malaria epidemiology study at Macha Research Trust, Macha, Zambia. Tests were imaged using the mHAT web application. Signal intensity was measured and a binary result was provided. App performance was validated by: (1) comparative limits of detection, investigated against currently used laboratory lateral flow assay readers; and, (2) receiver operating characteristic analysis comparing the application against visual inspection of RDTs by an expert. Secondary investigations included analysis of time-to-aggregation and data consistency within the existing surveillance structures established by Macha Research Trust. RESULTS: When compared to visual analysis, the mHAT app performed with 91.9% sensitivity (CI 78.7, 97.2) and specificity was 91.4% (CI 77.6, 97.0) regardless of device operating system. Additionally, an analysis of surveillance data from January 2017 through mid-February 2019 showed that while the majority of the data packets from satellite clinics contained correct data, 36% of data points required correction by verification teams. Between November 2018 and mid-February 2019, it was also found that 44.8% of data was received after the expected submission date, although most (65.1%) reports were received within 2 days. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, the mHAT mobile app was observed to be sensitive and specific when compared to both currently available benchtop lateral flow readers and visual inspection. The additional benefit of automating and standardizing LFA data collection and aggregation poses a vital improvement for low-resource health facilities and could increase the accuracy and speed of data reporting in surveillance campaigns.