Mortality Risk and Urinary Proteome Changes in Acute COVID-19 Survivors in the Multinational CRIT-COV-U Study.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Survival prospects following SARS-CoV-2 infection may extend beyond the acute phase, influenced by various factors including age, health conditions, and infection severity; however, this topic has not been studied in detail. Therefore, within this study, the mortality risk post-acute COVID-19 in the CRIT-COV-U cohort was investigated. METHODS: Survival data from 651 patients that survived an acute phase of COVID-19 were retrieved and the association between urinary peptides and future death was assessed. Data spanning until December 2023 were collected from six countries, comparing mortality trends with age- and sex-matched COVID-19-negative controls. A death prediction classifier was developed and validated using pre-existing urinary peptidomic datasets. RESULTS: Notably, 13.98% of post-COVID-19 patients succumbed during the follow-up, with mortality rates significantly higher than COVID-19-negative controls, particularly evident in younger individuals (<65 years). These data for the first time demonstrate that SARS-CoV-2 infection highly significantly increases the risk of mortality not only during the acute phase of the disease but also beyond for a period of about one year. In our study, we were further able to identify 201 urinary peptides linked to mortality. These peptides are fragments of albumin, alpha-2-HS-glycoprotein, apolipoprotein A-I, beta-2-microglobulin, CD99 antigen, various collagens, fibrinogen alpha, polymeric immunoglobulin receptor, sodium/potassium-transporting ATPase, and uromodulin and were integrated these into a predictive classifier (DP201). Higher DP201 scores, alongside age and BMI, significantly predicted death. CONCLUSIONS: The peptide-based classifier demonstrated significant predictive value for mortality in post-acute COVID-19 patients, highlighting the utility of urinary peptides in prognosticating post-acute COVID-19 mortality, offering insights for targeted interventions. By utilizing these defined biomarkers in the clinic, risk stratification, monitoring, and personalized interventions can be significantly improved. Our data also suggest that mortality should be considered as one possible symptom or a consequence of post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection, a fact that is currently overlooked.

Advancing kidney transplant outcomes: the role of urinary proteomics in graft function monitoring and rejection detection.

INTRODUCTION: Kidney transplantation significantly improves the lives of those with end-stage kidney disease, offering best alternative to dialysis. However, transplant success is threatened by the acute and chronic rejection mechanisms due to complex immune responses against the new organ. AREAS COVERED: The ongoing research into biomarkers holds promise for revolutionizing the early detection and monitoring of the graft health. Liquid biopsy techniques offer a new avenue, with several diagnostic, predictive, and prognostic biomarkers showing promise in detecting and monitoring kidney diseases and an early and chronic allograft rejection. EXPERT OPINION: Evaluating the protein composition related to kidney transplant results could lead to identifying biomarkers that provide insights into the graft functionality. Non-invasive proteomic biomarkers can drastically enhance clinical outcomes and change the way how kidney transplants are evaluated for patients and physicians if they succeed in this transition. Hence, the advancement in proteomic technologies, leads toward a significant improvement in understanding of the protein markers and molecular mechanisms linked to the outcomes of kidney transplants. However, the road from discovery to the use of such proteins in clinical practice is long, with a need for continuous validation and beyond the singular research team with comprehensive infrastructure and across research groups collaboration.

Drugs with a negative impact on cognitive functions (part 3): antibacterial agents in patients with chronic kidney disease.

The relationship between chronic kidney disease (CKD) and cognitive function has received increased attention in recent years. Antibacterial agents (ABs) represent a critical component of therapy regimens in patients with CKD due to increased susceptibility to infections. Following our reviewing work on the neurocognitive impact of long-term medications in patients with CKD, we propose to focus on AB-induced direct and indirect consequences on cognitive function. Patients with CKD are predisposed to adverse drug reactions (ADRs) due to altered drug pharmacokinetics, glomerular filtration decline, and the potential disruption of the blood-brain barrier. ABs have been identified as a major cause of ADRs in vulnerable patient populations. This review examines the direct neurotoxic effects of AB classes (e.g. beta-lactams, fluoroquinolones, aminoglycosides, and metronidazole) on the central nervous system (CNS) in patients with CKD. We will mainly focus on the acute effects on the CNS associated with AB since they are the most extensively studied effects in CKD patients. Moreover, the review describes the modulation of the gut microbiota by ABs, potentially influencing CNS symptoms. The intricate brain-gut-kidney axis emerges as a pivotal focus, revealing the interplay between microbiota alterations induced by ABs and CNS manifestations in patients with CKD. The prevalence of antibiotic-associated encephalopathy in patients with CKD undergoing intravenous AB therapy supports the use of therapeutic drug monitoring for ABs to reduce the number and seriousness of ADRs in this patient population. In conclusion, elucidating AB-induced cognitive effects in patients with CKD demands a comprehensive understanding and tailored therapeutic strategies that account for altered pharmacokinetics and the brain-gut-kidney axis.

Hyponatraemia-treatment standard 2024.

Hyponatraemia is the most common electrolyte disorder in hospital patients associated with increased morbidity, mortality, hospital stay and financial burden. The speed of a correction with 3% sodium chloride as a 100- to 150-ml intravenous bolus or continuous infusion depends on the severity and persistence of the symptoms and needs frequent biochemical monitoring. The rapid intermittent administration of hypertonic saline is preferred for treatment of symptomatic hyponatraemia. In asymptomatic mild hyponatraemia, an adequate solute intake with an initial fluid restriction (FR) of 500 ml/day adjusted according to the serum sodium (sNa) levels is preferred. Almost half of the syndrome of inappropriate antidiuretic hormone (SIADH) patients do not respond to FR as first-line therapy. At present, urea and tolvaptan are considered the most effective second-line therapies in SIADH. However, the evidence for guidance on the choice of second-line therapy of hypotonic hyponatraemia is lacking. Oral urea is considered to be a very effective and safe treatment. Mild and asymptomatic hyponatraemia is treated with adequate solute intake (salt and protein) and initial FR with adjustments based on sNa levels. Specific treatment with vaptans may be considered in either euvolaemic or hypervolaemic patients with high ADH activity. In order to ensure optimal patient outcome, close monitoring and readiness for administration of either hypotonic fluids or desmopressin may be crucial in the decision-making process for specific treatment and eventual overcorrection consequences. According to the guidelines, gradual correction and clinical evaluation is preferable over rapid normalization of sNa towards the laboratory reference ranges.

Transforming Diabetes Care: The Molecular Pathways through Which GLP1-RAs Impact the Kidneys in Diabetic Kidney Disease.

Diabetic kidney disease (DKD) is a substantial complication of type 2 diabetes (T2D), presenting challenges in chronic kidney disease (CKD) management. In addition to traditional and recent therapies, including angiotensin, converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors, angiotensin receptor blockers, sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitors, and mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists, the evolution of antihyperglycemic treatments has introduced a promising agent, glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist (GLP-1RA) for the management of DKD. GLP-1RAs enhance insulin release and reduce glucagon release, offering a novel approach to DKD management. This review analyzes the molecular pathways through which GLP1-RAs confer renal protection in T2D and DKD, which are complex and multifaceted. They include modulation of renal hemodynamics, antioxidative and anti-inflammatory actions, metabolic regulation, and direct cellular effects. These mechanisms highlight GLP1-RA's potential as a therapeutic option for glycemic control and direct or indirect renal function protection in diabetic patients, emphasizing the potentiality of GLP-1RAs for dual therapy, with cardiovascular and renal protection as a holistic approach. Clinical evidence supports GLP-1RAs in reducing albuminuria and enhancing kidney outcomes, highlighting their value in a comprehensive DKD management strategy.

A New Hope on the Horizon for Kidney and Cardiovascular Protection with SGLT2 Inhibitors, GLP-1 Receptor Agonists, and Mineralocorticoid Receptor Antagonists in Type 2 Diabetic and Chronic Kidney Disease Patients.

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is the leading cause of chronic kidney disease (CKD). In addition, the cardiovascular prevalence in diabetic patients is around 32.2%, with a two-fold increased mortality risk compared to those without diabetes. Recent investigations have shed light on the promising cardioprotective and nephroprotective benefits of sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT2i), glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RA), and nonsteroidal mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists (nsMRAs) for individuals with T2D. The evidence robustly indicates that SGLT2i and GLP-1RA significantly reduce the risk of CKD and cardiovascular disease (CVD), all while effectively managing blood glucose levels. Furthermore, combining SGLT2i with nsMRAs amplifies the benefits, potentially offering a more profound reduction in cardiovascular and renal outcomes. The data analysis strongly supports the integration of these pharmacological agents in the management strategies for CKD and CVD prevention among T2D patients, highlighting the importance of awareness among nephrologists, especially in regions with limited healthcare resources.

Sodium and water dynamics in the progression of chronic kidney disease: mechanisms and clinical significance.

AIM: Lifestyle modifications can postpone the progression of chronic kidney disease toward its terminal stage. This mini-review aims to explore the impact of salt and water intake on the progression of chronic kidney disease (CKD) and provide insights into the optimal consumption levels to preserve the glomerular filtration rate. METHODS: We reviewed relevant literature to examine the association between salt and water consumption and CKD progression. Our analysis includes discussions on the pathophysiology, findings from clinical trials, and recommended intake guidelines. RESULTS: Sodium intake, often linked to cardiovascular risk and CKD progression, has shown a complex J-shaped association in some studies, leading to uncertainty about the ideal salt intake level. Sodium and fluid retention are key factors contributing to hypertension, a well-established risk factor for CKD progression. Low-sodium diets have demonstrated promise in reducing blood pressure and enhancing the effects of renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system inhibitors in non-dialysis CKD patients. However, a debate persists regarding the independent effect of salt restriction on CKD progression. Despite medical recommendations, salt consumption remains high among CKD patients. Additionally, the role of water consumption in CKD remains controversial despite its established benefits for CKD prevention in the general population. CONCLUSION: Lifestyle modifications involving salt and water intake can influence the progression of CKD. While low-sodium diets have shown potential for mitigating hypertension and proteinuria in non-dialysis CKD patients, their independent impact on CKD progression warrants further investigation. The role of water consumption in CKD remains uncertain, and there is a need for additional research in this area. Clinicians should consider individualized dietary recommendations for CKD patients to help preserve the glomerular filtration rate and improve overall outcomes.

Drugs with a negative impact on cognitive function (Part 1): chronic kidney disease as a risk factor.

People living with chronic kidney disease (CKD) frequently suffer from mild cognitive impairment and/or other neurocognitive disorders. This review in two parts will focus on adverse drug reactions resulting in cognitive impairment as a potentially modifiable risk factor in CKD patients. Many patients with CKD have a substantial burden of comorbidities leading to polypharmacy. A recent study found that patients seen by nephrologists were the most complex to treat because of their high number of comorbidities and medications. Due to polypharmacy, these patients may experience a wide range of adverse drug reactions. Along with CKD progression, the accumulation of uremic toxins may lead to blood-brain barrier (BBB) disruption and pharmacokinetic alterations, increasing the risk of adverse reactions affecting the central nervous system (CNS). In patients on dialysis, the excretion of drugs that depend on kidney function is severely reduced such that adverse and toxic levels of a drug or its metabolites may be reached at relatively low doses, unless dosing is adjusted. This first review will discuss how CKD represents a risk factor for adverse drug reactions affecting the CNS via (i) BBB disruption associated with CKD and (ii) the impact of reduced kidney function and dialysis itself on drug pharmacokinetics.

The Current State of Nuclear Nephrology in Modern Medicine.

Glomerular filtration rate (GFR) is the most reliable parameter of renal function. Regarding the complexity of the gold standard inulin clearance, different estimating equations have been developed with CKD-EPI creatinine equation recommended as the most reliable one. In some clinical situations where creatinine based equations might not be valid, alternative methods are needed. Nuclear medicine methods for measuring GFR with 51Cr EDTA and 99mTc DTPA have been widely used for decades. There are different methodologies for the measurement of kidney function with radiopharmaceuticals: urinary clearance, plasma clearance, multiple plasma sampling, slope intercept, single sample plasma equation, slope only, and the gamma camera-based method. Greater precision of measuring GFR is needed in certain clinical situations. The most common are diagnosis and follow up of chronic kidney disease and definition of the beginning of replacement therapy. The assessment of renal function is also important for potential kidney donors. In recent years, with the introduction of new chemotherapeutic drugs and targeted therapy, oncologic patients treated with nephrotoxic drugs have become more commonly referred for measuring GFR. The monitoring of renal function is important during treatment in order to detect the transformation from reversible acute kidney injury to irreversible chronic kidney disease as well as in the cases of renal insufficiency reduce the dosage and prevent accumulation of the drug and avoid dosage related toxic effects. Assessment of kidney function using measured mGFR will be an important milestone in the creation of more accurate and expanding personalized medicine principle in current onconephrology practice.

Predictive Admission Risk Factors, Clinical Features and Kidney Outcomes in Covid-19 Hospitalised Patients with Acute Kidney Injury.

Introduction: In COVID-19 patients, acute kidney injury (AKI) is recognized as a cause of high mortality. The aim of our study was to assess the rate and the predictors of AKI as well as survival among COVID-19 patients. Methods: We analyzed clinical and laboratory admission data, predictors of AKI and outcomes including the need for renal replacement therapy (RRT) and mortality at 30 days. Results: Out of 115 patients, 62 (53.9%) presented with AKI: 21 (33.9%) at stage 1, 7(11.3%) at stage 2, and 34 (54.8%) at stage 3. RRT was required in 22.6% of patients and was resolved in 76%. Pre-existing CKD was associated with a 13-fold risk of AKI (p= 0.0001). Low albumin (p = 0.017), thrombocytopenia (p = 0.022) and increase of creatine kinase over 350UI (p = 0.024) were independently associated with a higher risk for AKI. Mortality rates were significantly higher among patients who developed AKI compared to those without (59.6% vs 30.2%, p= 0.003). Low oxygen blood saturation at admission and albumin were found as powerful independent predictors of mortality (OR 0.937; 95%CI: 0.917 - 0.958, p = 0.000; OR 0.987; 95%CI: 0.885-0.991, p= 0.024, respectively). Longer survival was observed in patients without AKI compared to patients with AKI (22.01± 1.703 vs 16.69 ± 1.54, log rank p= 0.009). Conclusion: Renal impairment is significant in hospitalized COVID-19 patients. The severity of the disease itself is emphasized as main contributing mechanism in the occurrence of AKI, and lower blood saturation at admission is the strongest mortality predictor, surpassing the significance of the AKI itself.

Methodological challenges and biases in the field of cognitive function among patients with chronic kidney disease.

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) affects approximately 850 million people globally and is associated with an increased risk of cognitive impairment. The prevalence of cognitive impairment among CKD patients ranges from 30 to 60%, and the link between CKD and cognitive impairment is partially understood. Methodological challenges and biases in studying cognitive function in CKD patients need to be addressed to improve diagnosis, treatment, and management of cognitive impairment in this population. Here, we review the methodological challenges and study design issues, including observational studies' limitations, internal validity, and different types of bias that can impact the validity of research findings. Understanding the unique challenges and biases associated with studying cognitive function in CKD patients can help to identify potential sources of error and improve the quality of future research, leading to more accurate diagnoses and better treatment plans for CKD patients.

Subclinical Hypothyroidism, Kidney, and Heart from Normal to Uremic Milieu.

Thyroid hormone (TH) imbalances, particularly subclinical hypothyroidism (SCHT), are associated with chronic kidney disease (CKD) and end-stage kidney disease (ESKD). SCHT is more prevalent in CKD and ESKD patients than in the general population, and this condition increases the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) morbidity and mortality. The risk of CVD is higher in CKD and ESKD patients compared with the general population. Traditional and nontraditional risk factors, including TH abnormalities, contribute to the high CVD burden in CKD and ESKD patients. The review discusses the link between CKD and hypothyroidism, with a focus on SCHT, and the mechanisms that lead to CVD burden.

The Role of Protein Restriction in the Progression of Chronic Kidney Disease.

Even though nephrology has made much progress, reducing the progression of the chronic kidney disease remains, in fact, one of the biggest challenges. Long before the renal replacement therapy (RRT), it was known that limiting the protein could help almost all uremia symptoms. Although it was proposed as early as the 1960s, it only became widely used in the 1980s. By lowering the urea and other nitrogen wastes and lowering the metabolic acidosis, oxidative stress, and insulin resistance, limiting the amount of protein in your diet can help improve uremic symptoms. Also, limiting the protein in the diet positively controls the cardiovascular complications, including the arterial blood pressure and proteinuria reduction, which are risk factors for CKD progression. This mini-review examines the impact of protein restriction on the possibility of slowing CKD progression in depth.

Cognitive disorders in patients with chronic kidney disease: Approaches to prevention and treatment.

BACKGROUND: Cognitive impairment is common in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD), and early intervention may prevent the progression of this condition. METHODS: Here, we review interventions for the complications of CKD (anemia, secondary hyperparathyroidism, metabolic acidosis, harmful effects of dialysis, the accumulation of uremic toxins) and for prevention of vascular events, interventions that may potentially be protective against cognitive impairment. Furthermore, we discuss nonpharmacological and pharmacological methods to prevent cognitive impairment and/or minimize the latter's impact on CKD patients' daily lives. RESULTS: A particular attention on kidney function assessment is suggested during work-up for cognitive impairment. Different approaches are promising to reduce cognitive burden in patients with CKD but the availabe dedicated data are scarce. CONCLUSIONS: There is a need for studies assessing the effect of interventions on the cognitive function of patients with CKD.

Proteomic Approaches and Potential Applications in Autosomal Dominant Polycystic Kidney Disease and Fabry Disease.

Although rare, hereditary diseases, such as autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) and Fabry disease (FD) may significantly progress towards severe nephropathy. It is crucial to characterize it accurately, predict the course of the illness and estimate treatment effectiveness. A huge effort has been undertaken to find reliable biomarkers that might be useful for an early prevention of the disease progression and/or any invasive diagnostic procedures. The study of proteomics, or the small peptide composition of a sample, is a field of study under continuous development. Over the past years, several strategies have been created to study and define the proteome of samples from widely varying origins. However, urinary proteomics has become essential for discovering novel biomarkers in kidney disease. Here, the extracellular vesicles in human urine that contain cell-specific marker proteins from every segment of the nephron, offer a source of potentially valuable urinary biomarkers, and may play an essential role in kidney development and kidney disease. This review summarizes the relevant literature investigating the proteomic approaches and potential applications in the regular studies of ADPKD and FD.

FGF23 in Chronic Kidney Disease: Bridging the Heart and Anemia.

Fibroblast growth factor 23 (FGF23) is a phosphaturic hormone produced mainly in osteocytes. In chronic kidney disease (CKD) FGF23 levels increase due to higher production, but also as the result of impaired cleavage and reduced excretion from the body. FGF23 has a significant role in disturbed bone and mineral metabolism in CKD, which leads to a higher cardiovascular risk and mortality in these patients. Current research has emphasized the expression of FGF23 in cardiac myocytes, fibroblasts, and endothelial cells, and in addition to the effects on the kidney, its primary role is in cardiac remodeling in CKD patients. Recent discoveries found a significant link between increased FGF23 levels and anemia development in CKD. This review describes the FGF23 role in cardiac hypertrophy and anemia in the setting of CKD and discusses the best therapeutical approach for lowering FGF23 levels.

Presence of retinopathy and incident kidney and cardiovascular events in type 2 diabetes with normoalbuminuria - A post-hoc analysis of the PRIORITY randomized clinical trial.

AIMS: Baseline diabetic retinopathy (DR) and risk of development of microalbuminuria, kidney function decline, and cardiovascular events (CVEs) in type 2 diabetes. METHODS: Post-hoc analysis of the PRIORITY study including 1758 persons with type 2 diabetes and normoalbuminuria followed for a median of 2.5 (IQR: 2.0-3.0) years. DR diagnosis included non-proliferative and proliferative abnormalities, macular oedema, or prior laser treatment. Cox models were fitted to investigate baseline DR presence with development of persistent microalbuminuria (urinary albumin-creatinine ratio > 30 mg/g); chronic kidney disease (CKD) G3 (eGFR <60 ml/min/1.73m2); and CVE. Models were adjusted for relevant risk factors. RESULTS: At baseline, 304 (17.3 %) had DR. Compared to persons without DR, they were older (mean ± SD: 62.7 ± 7.7 vs 61.4 ± 8.3 years, p = 0.019), had longer diabetes duration (17.9 ± 8.4 vs. 10.6 ± 7.0 years, p < 0.001), and higher HbA1c (62 ± 13 vs. 56 ± 12 mmol/mol, p < 0.001). The adjusted hazard ratios of DR at baseline for development of microalbuminuria (n = 197), CKD (n = 166), and CVE (n = 64) were: 1.50 (95%CI: 1.07, 2.11), 0.87 (95%CI: 0.56, 1.34), and 2.61 (95%CI: 1.44, 4.72), compared to without DR. CONCLUSIONS: Presence of DR in normoalbuminuric type 2 diabetes was associated with an increased risk of developing microalbuminuria and CVE, but not with kidney function decline.

The blood flow rate on the first day after arteriovenous fistula creation is a predictor of successful fistula maturation.

BACKGROUND: The determination of blood flow rate (BFR) is a useful tool for assessing the function of arteriovenous fistula (AVF). METHODS: Eighty patients with a newly created radio cephalic AVF were analyzed. Hemodynamics and morphological characteristics of the blood vessels were assessed by Doppler ultrasound. RESULTS: The mean age of patients was 59.9 ± 13.5 years. A successful rate of AVF maturation was 62.5% at 8 weeks. Six adjusted models of multivariate analysis showed that BFR at Day 1 was a predictor for AVF maturation both at 4 weeks (p < 0.001) and 8 weeks (p < 0.001). Receiver operating characteristic analysis showed an optimal cut-off point for BFR at Day 1 of 395 ml/min for successful maturation at 4 weeks (sensitivity 0.714, specificity 0.889) and 344 ml/min for successful maturation at 8 weeks (sensitivity 0.860, specificity 0.867). CONCLUSION: BFR at Day 1 is a powerful predictor for successful AVF maturation at 4 and 8 weeks.

Percutaneous Nephrostomy in the Treatment of Hydronephrosis in Renal Transplant Patients - Case Report.

Percutaneous nephrostomy is a first-line minimal invasive treatment option for ureteral obstruction following kidney transplantation, with high effectiveness and a low complication rate. Percutaneous nephrostomy might be used as a temporary salvage therapy, providing acute decompression of the kidney collecting system and preventing graft loss. It can also function as a permanent and sometimes only possible option in transplant patients with frequent recurrences of ureteral stenosis who either fail an open surgical reconstruction or who are not good candidates for these procedures. We present two patients with acute decline in urine output after renal transplantation with radiologically verified hydroureteronephrosis of the transplanted kidney (graft) caused by stenosis of distal ureter. In both cases, nephrostomy was placed within 48 hours as a temporary salvage treatment that ameliorates renal function and prevents graft loss. The permanent nephrostomy was the only possible solution for the preservation of the graft's function in the first case because of the recurrences of ureteral stenosis after several percutaneous interventions and open-surgery ureteral reconstruction. A few episodes of nephrostomy tube-related infections were resolved with antibiotics in the first case. The second case was treated with open ureteroneocystostomy with resection of stenotic segment and reinsertion of the ureter into the bladder (ureterocystoneostomy) because of the length of the involved ureteral segment. Both patients had stable graft function in the follow-up period.

Predictive performance and clinical application of COV50, a urinary proteomic biomarker in early COVID-19 infection: a prospective multicentre cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic is a worldwide challenge. The CRIT-CoV-U pilot study generated a urinary proteomic biomarker consisting of 50 peptides (COV50), which predicted death and disease progression from SARS-CoV-2. After the interim analysis presented for the German Government, here, we aimed to analyse the full dataset to consolidate the findings and propose potential clinical applications of this biomarker. METHODS: CRIT-CoV-U was a prospective multicentre cohort study. In eight European countries (Austria, France, Germany, Greece, North Macedonia, Poland, Spain, and Sweden), 1012 adults with PCR-confirmed COVID-19 were followed up for death and progression along the 8-point WHO scale. Capillary electrophoresis coupled with mass spectrometry was used for urinary proteomic profiling. Statistical methods included logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic curve analysis with a comparison of the area under curve (AUC) between nested models. Hospitalisation costs were derived from the care facility corresponding with the Markov chain probability of reaching WHO scores ranging from 3 to 8 and flat-rate hospitalisation costs adjusted for the gross per capita domestic product of each country. FINDINGS: From June 30 to Nov 19, 2020, 228 participants were recruited, and from April 30, 2020, to April 14, 2021, 784 participants were recruited, resulting in a total of 1012 participants. The entry WHO scores were 1-3 in 445 (44%) participants, 4-5 in 529 (52%) participants, and 6 in 38 (4%) participants; and of all participants, 119 died and 271 had disease progression. The odds ratio (OR) associated with COV50 in all 1012 participants for death was 2·44 (95% CI 2·05-2·92) unadjusted and 1·67 (1·34-2·07) when adjusted for sex, age, BMI, comorbidities, and baseline WHO score; and for disease progression, the OR was 1·79 (1·60-2·01) when unadjusted and 1·63 (1·41-1·91) when adjusted (p<0·0001 for all). The predictive accuracy of the optimised COV50 thresholds was 74·4% (71·6-77·1%) for mortality (threshold 0·47) and 67·4% (64·4-70·3%) for disease progression (threshold 0·04). When adjusted for covariables and the baseline WHO score, these thresholds improved AUCs from 0·835 to 0·853 (p=0·033) for death and from 0·697 to 0·730 (p=0·0008) for progression. Of 196 participants who received ambulatory care, 194 (99%) did not reach the 0·04 threshold. The cost reductions associated with 1 day less hospitalisation per 1000 participants were million Euro (M€) 0·887 (5-95% percentile interval 0·730-1·039) in participants at a low risk (COV50 <0·04) and M€2·098 (1·839-2·365) in participants at a high risk (COV50 ≥0·04). INTERPRETATION: The urinary proteomic COV50 marker might be predictive of adverse COVID-19 outcomes. Even in people with mild-to-moderate PCR-confirmed infections (WHO scores 1-4), the 0·04 COV50 threshold justifies earlier drug treatment, thereby potentially reducing the number of days in hospital and associated costs. FUNDING: German Federal Ministry of Health.