Participatory Systems Thinking to Elucidate Drivers of Food Access and Diet Disparities among Minoritized Urban Populations.

The purpose of this study was to use participatory systems thinking to develop a dynamic conceptual framework of racial/ethnic and other intersecting disparities (e.g., income) in food access and diet in Philadelphia and to identify policy levers to address these disparities. We conducted three group model building workshops, each consisting of a series of scripted activities. Key artifacts or outputs included qualitative system maps, or causal loop diagrams, identifying the variables, relationships, and feedback loops that drive diet disparities in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. We used semi-structured methods informed by inductive thematic analysis and network measures to synthesize findings into a single causal loop diagram. There were twenty-nine participants with differing vantages and expertise in Philadelphia's food system, broadly representing the policy, community, and research domains. In the synthesis model, participants identified 14 reinforcing feedback loops and one balancing feedback loop that drive diet and food access disparities in Philadelphia. The most highly connected variables were upstream factors, including those related to racism (e.g., residential segregation) and community power (e.g., community land control). Consistent with existing frameworks, addressing disparities will require a focus on upstream social determinants. However, existing frameworks should be adapted to emphasize and disrupt the interdependent, reinforcing feedback loops that maintain and exacerbate disparities in fundamental social causes. Our findings suggest that promising policies include those that empower minoritized communities, address socioeconomic inequities, improve community land control, and increase access to affordable, healthy, and culturally meaningful foods.

Uncovering physical activity trade-offs in transportation policy: A spatial agent-based model of Bogotá, Colombia.

BACKGROUND: Transportation policies can impact health outcomes while simultaneously promoting social equity and environmental sustainability. We developed an agent-based model (ABM) to simulate the impacts of fare subsidies and congestion taxes on commuter decision-making and travel patterns. We report effects on mode share, travel time and transport-related physical activity (PA), including the variability of effects by socioeconomic strata (SES), and the trade-offs that may need to be considered in the implementation of these policies in a context with high levels of necessity-based physical activity. METHODS: The ABM design was informed by local stakeholder engagement. The demographic and spatial characteristics of the in-silico city, and its residents, were informed by local surveys and empirical studies. We used ridership and travel time data from the 2019 Bogotá Household Travel Survey to calibrate and validate the model by SES. We then explored the impacts of fare subsidy and congestion tax policy scenarios. RESULTS: Our model reproduced commuting patterns observed in Bogotá, including substantial necessity-based walking for transportation. At the city-level, congestion taxes fractionally reduced car use, including among mid-to-high SES groups but not among low SES commuters. Neither travel times nor physical activity levels were impacted at the city level or by SES. Comparatively, fare subsidies promoted city-level public transportation (PT) ridership, particularly under a 'free-fare' scenario, largely through reductions in walking trips. 'Free fare' policies also led to a large reduction in very long walking times and an overall reduction in the commuting-based attainment of physical activity guidelines. Differential effects were observed by SES, with free fares promoting PT ridership primarily among low-and-middle SES groups. These shifts to PT reduced median walking times among all SES groups, particularly low-SES groups. Moreover, the proportion of low-to-mid SES commuters meeting weekly physical activity recommendations decreased under the 'freefare' policy, with no change observed among high-SES groups. CONCLUSIONS: Transport policies can differentially impact SES-level disparities in necessity-based walking and travel times. Understanding these impacts is critical in shaping transportation policies that balance the dual aims of reducing SES-level disparities in travel time (and time poverty) and the promotion of choice-based physical activity.

Methods and measures to evaluate the impact of participatory model building on public policymakers: a scoping review protocol.

INTRODUCTION: Public policymakers are increasingly engaged in participatory model building processes, such as group model building. Understanding the impacts of policymaker participation in these processes on policymakers is important given that their decisions often have significant influence on the dynamics of complex systems that affect health. Little is known about the extent to which the impacts of participatory model building on public policymakers have been evaluated or the methods and measures used to evaluate these impacts. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: A scoping review protocol was developed with the objectives of: (1) scoping studies that have evaluated the impacts of facilitated participatory model building processes on public policymakers who participated in these processes; and (2) describing methods and measures used to evaluate impacts and the main findings of these evaluations. The Joanna Briggs Institute's Population, Concept, Context framework was used to formulate the article identification process. Seven electronic databases-MEDLINE (Ovid), ProQuest Health and Medical, Scopus, Web of Science, Embase (Ovid), CINAHL Complete and PsycInfo-will be searched. Identified articles will be screened according to inclusion and exclusion criteria and the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews checklist for scoping reviews will be used and reported. A data extraction tool will collect information across three domains: study characteristics, methods and measures, and findings. The review will be conducted using Covidence, a systematic review data management platform. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The scoping review produced will generate an overview of how public policymaker engagement in participatory model building processes has been evaluated. Findings will be disseminated through peer-reviewed publications and to communities of practice that convene policymakers in participatory model building processes. This review will not require ethics approval because it is not human subject research.

Understanding the dynamics of the obesity transition associated with physical activity, sedentary lifestyle, and consumption of ultra-processed foods in Colombia.

OBJECTIVE: We investigate the obesity transition at the country- and regional-levels, by age, gender, and socioeconomic status (SES) and its relationship to three health behavior attributes, including physical activity (PA), sedentary activities (ST), and consumption of ultra-processed foods (CUPF) within the urban population of Colombia, from 20,010 to 2050. METHODS: The study is informed by cross-sectional data from ENSIN survey. We used these data to develop a system dynamics model that simulates the dynamics of obesity by body mass index (BMI) categories, gender, and SES. This model also uses a conservative co-flow structure for three health-related behaviors (PA, ST, and CUPF). RESULTS: At the national level, our results indicate that the burden of obesity is shifting towards populations with lower SES as the gross domestic product (GDP) increases, particularly women aged 20-59 years with lower SES. Among this group of women, the highest burden of obesity is among those who do not meet the PA, ST and CUPF recommendations. At the regional level, our findings suggest that the regions are at different stages in the obesity transition. CONCLUSIONS: The burden of obesity is shifting towards women with lower SES as GDP increases at the national level and across several regions. This obesity transition is paralleled by a high prevalence of women from low SES groups who do not meet the minimum recommendations for PA, CUPF, and ST. Our findings can be used by decision-makers to inform age- and SES- specific policies seeking to tackle the obesity.

Assessing cohesion and diversity in the collaboration network of the SALURBAL project.

The SALURBAL (Urban Health in Latin America) Project is an interdisciplinary multinational network aimed at generating and disseminating actionable evidence on the drivers of health in cities of Latin America. We conducted a temporal multilayer network analysis where we measured cohesion over time using network structural properties and assessed diversity within and between different project activities according to participant attributes. Between 2017 and 2020 the SALURBAL network comprised 395 participants across 26 countries, 23 disciplines, and 181 institutions. While the cohesion of the SALURBAL network fluctuated over time, overall, an increase was observed from the first to the last time point of our analysis (clustering coefficient increased [0.83-0.91] and shortest path decreased [1.70-1.68]). SALURBAL also exhibited balanced overall diversity within project activities (0.5-0.6) by designing activities for different purposes such as capacity building, team-building, research, and dissemination. The network's growth was facilitated by the creation of new diverse collaborations across a range of activities over time, while maintaining the diversity of existing collaborations (0.69-0.75 between activity diversity depending on the attribute). The SALURBAL experience can serve as an example for multinational research projects aiming to build cohesive networks while leveraging heterogeneity in countries, disciplines, career stage, and across sectors.

Investigating the Relative Influence of Romantic Sex Partners and Close Friends on Adolescent Alcohol and Marijuana Use.

A large body of research has identified peer exposure as a key factor driving adolescent substance use. However, findings on the role of sex partners are less robust and mixed. This study aims to fill this gap by examining the independent contribution of close friends' and sex partners' alcohol and marijuana use on adolescents' use of these substances. A secondary data analysis of social network data collected in 2000-2002 from a household sample of African American youth (14-19 years old) in the Bayview and Hunter's Point neighborhoods of San Francisco was conducted. Index participants and their nominated close friends and romantic sex partners (N = 104 triads) self-reported recent alcohol and marijuana use (defined as any use in the past 3 months). Generalized estimated equations were used to estimate the independent association between adolescent's recent substance use and their friend's and sex partner's use. Adolescents with a marijuana-using romantic sex partner had a nearly six-fold higher odds of using marijuana compared to adolescents with a non-using partner, controlling for close friend's marijuana use and other confounders [OR:5.69, 95%CI: 1.94, 16.7]; no association with close friend's marijuana use was found. A similar pattern was observed for alcohol use. Adolescents with an alcohol-using romantic sex partner had increased odds of using alcohol compared to adolescents with a non-using partner, controlling for close friend's alcohol use and other confounders [OR:2.40, 95%CI: 1.02, 5.63]; no association with close friend's alcohol use was found. Romantic sex partners may play a unique and significant role in adolescent substance use. Peer-focused interventions may be more effective if they consider romantic sex partners. Future research should consider the role of romantic sex partners in changing social context related to substance use from adolescence to young adulthood.

Use of qualitative systems mapping and causal loop diagrams to understand food environments, diet and obesity: a scoping review protocol.

INTRODUCTION: Food systems can shape dietary behaviour and obesity outcomes in complex ways. Qualitative systems mapping using causal loop diagrams (CLDs) can depict how people understand the complex dynamics, inter-relationships and feedback characteristic of food systems in ways that can support policy planning and action. To date, there has been no attempt to review this literature. The objectives of this review are to scope the extent and nature of studies using qualitative systems mapping to facilitate the development of CLDs by stakeholders to understand food environments, including settings and populations represented, key findings and the methodological processes employed. It also seeks to identify gaps in knowledge and implications for policy and practice. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This protocol describes a scoping review guided by the Joanna Briggs Institute manual, the framework by Khalil and colleagues and the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews checklist reporting guidelines. A search strategy was iteratively developed with two academic librarians and the research team. This strategy will be used to search six databases, including Ovid MEDLINE, Embase, EmCare, Web of Science, Scopus and ProQuest Central. Identified citations will be screened by two independent reviewers; first, by title and abstract, and then full-text articles to identify papers eligible for inclusion. The reference lists of included studies and relevant systematic reviews will be searched to identify other papers eligible for inclusion. Two reviewers will extract information from all included studies and summarise the findings descriptively and numerically. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The scoping review will provide an overview of how CLDs developed by stakeholders have been elicited to understand food environments, diet and obesity, the insights gained and how the CLDs have been used. It will also highlight gaps in knowledge and implications for policy and practice. The review will be disseminated through publication in an academic journal and conference presentations.

A systems framework depicting how complex neighborhood dynamics and contextual factors could impact the effectiveness of an alcohol outlet zoning policy.

An updated zoning policy eliminating all alcohol outlets (liquor stores) in residential districts was implemented to reduce high rates of violent crime in Baltimore City. Diverse stakeholders were engaged in group model building (GMB) activities to develop causal loop diagrams (CLDs) that elucidate the impact of the new zoning policy on crime, and more broadly, the potentially unintended social and environmental consequences of the policy. Three distinct groups, community advocates, city officials/academics, and community residents, participated in three separate GMB sessions. Three CLDs, one from each stakeholder group, were created to depict the possible outcomes of the zoning policy. Our findings offer insight into potential unintended consequences of removing liquor stores from residential areas that may undermine the policy. Community members described the need for additional supports related to mental health and substance use, opportunities for investment in the community, access to other goods and services, and community-police relations to ensure the policy achieved its intended goal of reducing violent crime. Our findings highlight the importance of timely engagement of local stakeholders to understand how complex neighborhood dynamics and contextual factors could impact the effectiveness of a zoning policy change.

Potential impacts of policies to reduce purchasing of ultra-processed foods in Mexico at different stages of the social transition: an agent-based modelling approach.

OBJECTIVES: To develop a simulation framework for assessing how combinations of taxes, nutrition warning labels and advertising levels could affect purchasing of ultra-processed foods (UPF) in Latin American countries and to understand whether policies reinforce or reduce pre-existing social disparities in UPF consumption. DESIGN: We developed an agent-based simulation model using international evidence regarding the effect of price, nutrition warning labels and advertising on UPF purchasing. SETTING: We estimated policy effects in scenarios representing two stages of the 'social transition' in UPF purchasing: (1) a pre-transition scenario, where UPF purchasing is higher among high-income households, similar to patterns in Mexico; and (2) a post-transition scenario where UPF purchasing is highest among low-income households, similar to patterns in Chile. PARTICIPANTS: A population of 1000 individual agents with levels of age, income, educational attainment and UPF purchasing similar to adult women in Mexico. RESULTS: A 20 % tax would decrease purchasing by 24 % relative to baseline in both the pre- and post-transition scenarios, an effect that is similar in magnitude to that of a nutrition warning label policy. A 50 % advertising increase or decrease had a comparatively small effect. Nutrition warning labels were most effective among those with higher levels of educational attainment. Labelling reduced inequities in the pre-transition scenario (i.e. highest UPF purchasing among the highest socio-economic group) but widened inequities in the post-transition scenario. CONCLUSIONS: Effective policy levers are available to reduce UPF purchasing, but policymakers should anticipate that equity impacts will differ depending on existing social patterns in UPF purchasing.

Built environment profiles for Latin American urban settings: The SALURBAL study.

The built environment of cities is complex and influences social and environmental determinants of health. In this study we, 1) identified city profiles based on the built landscape and street design characteristics of cities in Latin America and 2) evaluated the associations of city profiles with social determinants of health and air pollution. Landscape and street design profiles of 370 cities were identified using finite mixture modeling. For landscape, we measured fragmentation, isolation, and shape. For street design, we measured street connectivity, street length, and directness. We fitted a two-level linear mixed model to assess the association of social and environmental determinants of health with the profiles. We identified four profiles for landscape and four for the street design domain. The most common landscape profile was the "proximate stones" characterized by moderate fragmentation, isolation and patch size, and irregular shape. The most common street design profile was the "semi-hyperbolic grid" characterized by moderate connectivity, street length, and directness. The "semi-hyperbolic grid", "spiderweb" and "hyperbolic grid" profiles were positively associated with higher access to piped water and less overcrowding. The "semi-hyperbolic grid" and "spiderweb" profiles were associated with higher air pollution. The "proximate stones" and "proximate inkblots" profiles were associated with higher congestion. In conclusion, there is substantial heterogeneity in the urban landscape and street design profiles of Latin American cities. While we did not find a specific built environment profile that was consistently associated with lower air pollution and better social conditions, the different configurations of the built environments of cities should be considered when planning healthy and sustainable cities in Latin America.

Using cause-effect graphs to elicit expert knowledge for cross-impact balance analysis.

Cross-impact balance (CIB) analysis leverages expert knowledge pertaining to the nature and strength of relationships between components of a system to identify the most plausible future 'scenarios' of the system. These scenarios, also referred to as 'storylines', provide qualitative insights into how the state of one factor can either promote or restrict the future state of one or multiple other factors in the system. This paper presents a novel, visually oriented questionnaire developed to elicit expert knowledge about the relationships between key factors in a system, for the purpose of CIB analysis. The questionnaire requires experts to make selections from a series of standardized cause-effect graphical profiles that depict a range of linear and non-linear relationships between factor pairs. The questionnaire and the process of translating the graphical selections into data that can be used for CIB analysis is described using an applied example which focuses on urban health in Latin American cities.

Physical Activity Promotion and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals: Building Synergies to Maximize Impact.

BACKGROUND: Many of the known solutions to the physical inactivity pandemic operate across sectors relevant to the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). METHODS: The authors examined the contribution of physical activity promotion strategies toward achieving the SDGs through a conceptual linkage exercise, a scoping review, and an agent-based model. RESULTS: Possible benefits of physical activity promotion were identified for 15 of the 17 SDGs, with more robust evidence supporting benefits for SDGs 3 (good health and well-being), 9 (industry, innovation, and infrastructure), 11 (sustainable cities and communities), 13 (climate action), and 16 (peace, justice, and strong institutions). Current evidence supports prioritizing at-scale physical activity-promoting transport and urban design strategies and community-based programs. Expected physical activity gains are greater for low-and middle-income countries. In high-income countries with high car dependency, physical activity promotion strategies may help reduce air pollution and traffic-related deaths, but shifts toward more active forms of travel and recreation, and climate change mitigation, may require complementary policies that disincentivize driving. CONCLUSIONS: The authors call for a synergistic approach to physical activity promotion and SDG achievement, involving multiple sectors beyond health around their goals and values, using physical activity promotion as a lever for a healthier planet.

From causal loop diagrams to future scenarios: Using the cross-impact balance method to augment understanding of urban health in Latin America.

Urban health is shaped by a system of factors spanning multiple levels and scales, and through a complex set of interactions. Building on causal loop diagrams developed via several group model building workshops, we apply the cross-impact balance (CIB) method to understand the strength and nature of the relationships between factors in the food and transportation system, and to identify possible future urban health scenarios (i.e., permutations of factor states that impact health in cities). We recruited 16 food and transportation system experts spanning private, academic, non-government, and policy sectors from six Latin American countries to complete an interviewer-assisted questionnaire. The questionnaire, which was pilot tested on six researchers, used a combination of questions and visual prompts to elicit participants' perceptions about the bivariate relationships between 11 factors in the food and transportation system. Each participant answered questions related to a unique set of relationships within their domain of expertise. Using CIB analysis, we identified 21 plausible future scenarios for the system. In the baseline model, 'healthy' scenarios (with low chronic disease, high physical activity, and low consumption of highly processed foods) were characterized by high public transportation subsidies, low car use, high street safety, and high free time, illustrating the links between transportation, free time and dietary behaviors. In analyses of interventions, low car use, high public transport subsidies and high free time were associated with the highest proportion of factors in a healthful state and with high proportions of 'healthy' scenarios. High political will for social change also emerged as critically important in promoting healthy systems and urban health outcomes. The CIB method can play a novel role in augmenting understandings of complex urban systems by enabling insights into future scenarios that can be used alongside other approaches to guide urban health policy planning and action.

Public transit and depression among older adults: using agent-based models to examine plausible impacts of a free bus policy.

BACKGROUND: Daily transport is associated with mental health. A free bus policy (FBP) may be effective in promoting the use of public transit in older adults and be associated with reductions in depressive symptoms. METHODS: We developed an agent-based model and grounded it using empirical data from England to examine the impact of an FBP on public transit use and depression among older adults. We also used the model to explore whether the impact of the FBP bus use and depression is modified by the type of income segregation or by simultaneous efforts to improve attitudes towards the bus, to reduce waiting times or to increase the cost of driving via parking fees or fuel price. RESULTS: Our model suggests that improving attitudes towards the bus (eg, campaigns that promote bus use) could enhance the effect of the FBP, especially for those in proximity to public transit. Reducing wait times could also significantly magnify FPB impacts, especially in those who live in proximity to public transit. Contrary to expectation, neither fuel costs nor parking fees significantly enhanced the impact of the FBP. The impact of improving attitudes towards the bus and increasing bus frequency was more pronounced in the lower-income groups in an income segregation scenario in which destination and public transit are denser in the city centre. CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that the beneficial mental health effects of an FBP for older adults can be magnified when combined with initiatives that reduce bus waiting times and increased spatial access to transit.

Using a system dynamics model to study the obesity transition by socioeconomic status in Colombia at the country, regional and department levels.

OBJECTIVE: We study the obesity transition by socioeconomic status (SES), gender and age within the Colombian urban population at the country, regional and department levels. DESIGN: The study is informed by cross-sectional data from the 2005 and 2010 ENSIN survey. We used these data to develop a system dynamics model that simulates the dynamics of obesity by body mass index (BMI) categories, gender and SES at the country, regional and department levels from 2005 to 2030. PARTICIPANTS: The sample size of the 2005 ENSIN comprised 8515 children younger than 5 years, 32 009 children and adolescents aged 5-17 years and 48 056 adults aged 18-64 years. In 2010, the corresponding numbers were 11 368, 32 524 and 64 425, respectively. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURE: The obesity prevalence ratio and prevalence rates for each BMI category. RESULTS: The results show, at the country level, transitions from overweight to obesity were projected to increase sharply among lower SES adults, particularly among women, suggesting that these groups will undergo an obesity transition by 2030. The model projections also indicate that the regions of Colombia are in different stages of the obesity transition. In the case of women, five out of the six regions were expected to undergo an obesity transition by SES over time. For men, only one region was expected to undergo an obesity transition. However, at the department level, trends in the burden of obesity varied. CONCLUSIONS: We evidence that the Colombian population could be experiencing an obesity transition where the increase in the GDP could be related to shifts in the burden of obesity from higher to lower SES, especially in women. These patterns support the need for policy planning that considers SES and gender, at the national and subnational levels, as important determinants of overweight and obesity among adults in Colombia.

A systematic review of empirical and simulation studies evaluating the health impact of transportation interventions.

Urban transportation is an important determinant of health and environmental outcomes, and therefore essential to achieving the United Nation's Sustainable Development Goals. To better understand the health impacts of transportation initiatives, we conducted a systematic review of longitudinal health evaluations involving: a) bus rapid transit (BRT); b) bicycle lanes; c) Open Streets programs; and d) aerial trams/cable cars. We also synthesized systems-based simulation studies of the health-related consequences of walking, bicycling, aerial tram, bus and BRT use. Two reviewers screened 3302 unique titles and abstracts identified through a systematic search of MEDLINE (Ovid), Scopus, TRID and LILACS databases. We included 39 studies: 29 longitudinal evaluations and 10 simulation studies. Five studies focused on low- and middle-income contexts. Of the 29 evaluation studies, 19 focused on single component bicycle lane interventions; the rest evaluated multi-component interventions involving: bicycle lanes (n = 5), aerial trams (n = 1), and combined bicycle lane/BRT systems (n = 4). Bicycle lanes and BRT systems appeared effective at increasing bicycle and BRT mode share, active transport duration, and number of trips using these modes. Of the 10 simulation studies, there were 9 agent-based models and one system dynamics model. Five studies focused on bus/BRT expansions and incentives, three on interventions for active travel, and the rest investigated combinations of public transport and active travel policies. Synergistic effects were observed when multiple policies were implemented, with several studies showing that sizable interventions are required to significantly shift travel mode choices. Our review indicates that bicycle lanes and BRT systems represent promising initiatives for promoting population health. There is also evidence to suggest that synergistic effects might be achieved through the combined implementation of multiple transportation policies. However, more rigorous evaluation and simulation studies focusing on low- and middle-income countries, aerial trams and Open Streets programs, and a more diverse set of health and health equity outcomes is required.

Using community-based system dynamics modeling to understand the complex systems that influence health in cities: The SALURBAL study.

We discuss the design, implementation, and results of a collaborative process designed to elucidate the complex systems that drive food behaviors, transport, and health in Latin American cities and to build capacity for systems thinking and community-based system dynamics (CBSD) methods among diverse research team members and stakeholders. During three CBSD workshops, 62 stakeholders from 10 Latin American countries identified 98 variables and a series of feedback loops that shape food behaviors, transportation and health, along with 52 policy levers. Our findings suggest that CBSD can engage local stakeholders, help them view problems through the lens of complex systems and use their insights to prioritize research efforts and identify novel solutions that consider mechanisms of complexity.

Finite mixture models in neighbourhoods-to-health research: A systematic review.

A systematic review was conducted, following PRISMA guidelines, to examine the application of finite mixture models (FMMs) in the study of neighbourhoods and health. Two reviewers screened 814-studies identified through database searches and citation tracking. Data were extracted from 19-studies that met the inclusion criteria, and a risk of bias analysis undertaken. Data were synthesised narratively, with a focus on methodological issues idiosyncratic to FMMs. Motivated by a desire to account for neighbourhood heterogeneity, studies sought to identify meaningful neighbourhood-level typologies that explained the distributional nature of health outcomes. Neighbourhood-centred applications of FMMs were promising but there remains scope for advancement. Research-based recommendations are outlined to strengthen prospective neighbourhood-centred studies applying FMMs.