Bayesian multistate models for measuring invasive carp movement and evaluating telemetry array performance.

Understanding the movement patterns of an invasive species can be a powerful tool in designing effective management and control strategies. Here, we used a Bayesian multistate model to investigate the movement of two invasive carp species, silver carp (Hypophthalmichthys molitrix) and bighead carp (H. nobilis), using acoustic telemetry. The invaded portions of the Illinois and Des Plaines Rivers, USA, are a high priority management zone in the broader efforts to combat the spread of invasive carps from reaching the Laurentian Great Lakes. Our main objective was to characterize the rates of upstream and downstream movements by carps between river pools that are maintained by navigation lock and dam structures. However, we also aimed to evaluate the efficacy of the available telemetry infrastructure to monitor carp movements through this system. We found that, on a monthly basis, most individuals of both species remained within their current river pools: averaging 76.2% of silver carp and 75.5% of bighead carp. Conversely, a smaller proportion of silver carp, averaging 14.2%, and bighead carp, averaging 13.9%, moved to downstream river pools. Movements towards upstream pools were the least likely for both species, with silver carp at an average of 6.7% and bighead carp at 7.9%. The highest probabilities for upstream movements were for fish originating from the three most downstream river pools, where most of the population recruitment occurs. However, our evaluation of the telemetry array's effectiveness indicated low probability to detect fish in this portion of the river. We provide insights to enhance the placement and use of these monitoring tools, aiming to deepen our comprehension of these species' movement patterns in the system.

Advancing Military Medical Planning in Large Scale Combat Operations: Insights From Computer Simulation and Experimentation in NATO's Vigorous Warrior Exercise 2024.

INTRODUCTION: The ongoing conflict in Ukraine from Russian invasion presents a critical challenge to medical planning in the context of multi-domain battle against a peer adversary deploying conventional weapon systems. The potential escalation of preventable morbidity and mortality, reaching a scale unprecedented since World War II, underscores the paramount importance of effective phases of care from Point of Injury (PoI)/Point of Wounding (PoW) or Point of Exposure (PoE) to Role 1 (R1) and Role 2 (R2) echelons of care.The NATO Vigorous Warrior (VW) Live Exercise (LIVEX) serves as a strategic platform for NATO and its partners, providing an opportunity to challenge operational concepts, experiment, innovate life-saving systems, and foster best practices across the Alliance. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This study delineates the strategic application of the VW LIVEX platform for the adaptation of the computational simulation software Simulation for the Assessment and Optimization of Medical Disaster Management (SIMEDIS) within the context of Large-Scale Combat Operations (LSCO). The SIMEDIS computer simulator plays a pivotal role by furnishing real-time insights into the evolving injury patterns of patients, employing an all-hazards approach. This simulator facilitates the examination of temporal shifts in medical timelines and the ramifications of resource scarcity against both morbidity and mortality outcomes. The VW LIVEX provides a unique opportunity for systematic validation to evaluate the results of the computer simulator in a realistic setting and identify gaps for future concepts of operations. RESULTS: We report the process and methodologies to be evaluated at the VW LIVEX in far forward and retrospective medical support operations. Using the SIMEDIS simulator, we can define battlefield scenarios for varied situations including artillery, drone strikes, and Chemical, Biological, Radiological, Nuclear, and explosive (CBRNe) attacks. Casualty health progressions versus time are dependent on each threat. Mortality is computed based on the concepts found in Tactical Combat Casualty Care (TCCC) of "self-aid"/"buddy-aid" factoring in the application or absence of definitive traumatic hemorrhage control and on the distribution policy of victims to medical treatment facilities through appropriate Command and Control (C2) ("Scoop and Run" versus "Stay and Play"). The number of medical supplies available along with the number of transport resources and personnel are set and are scalable, with their effect on both morbidity and mortality quantified.Concept of Medical Operations can be optimized and interoperability enhanced when shared data are provided to C2 for prospective medical planning with retrospective data. The SIMEDIS simulator determines best practices of medical management for a myriad of injury types and tactical/operational situations relevant to policy making and battlefield medical planning for LSCO. CONCLUSIONS: The VW LIVEX provides a Concept Development and Experimentation platform for SIMEDIS refinement and conclusive insights into medical planning to reduce preventable morbidity and mortality. Recommending further iterations of similar methodologies at other NATO LIVEXs for validation is crucial, as is information sharing across the Alliance and partners to ensure best practice standards are met.

In vivo Assessment of AMP2, a Novel Ceramic-Binding BMP-2, in Ovine Lumbar Interbody Fusion.

STUDY DESIGN: Assessment of bone formation in an ovine interbody fusion study. OBJECTIVE: To compare OsteoAdapt SP, which consists of AMP-2, a modified variant of recombinant human bone morphogenetic protein (rhBMP-2) bound to a tricalcium phosphate-containing carrier, to autologous iliac crest bone graft (ICBG) in a lumbar interbody fusion model. SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA: Treatment of lumbar disk degeneration often involves spinal fusion to reduce pain and motion at the affected spinal segment by insertion of a cage containing bone graft material. Three graft materials were compared in this study-ICBG and OsteoAdapt SP (low or high dose). METHODS: The sheep underwent lateral lumbar fusion surgery with PEEK or Titanium interbody cages packed with OsteoAdapt SP (low or high dose) or ICBG. Outcomes were evaluated at 8-, 16- and 26- weeks. Newly formed bone quality, bone mineralization, and fusion were assessed by manual palpation, qualitative and semi-quantitative histopathology, histomorphometry, computed tomography (CT), and micro-CT (mCT) analysis. RESULTS: OsteoAdapt SP was implanted into 43 animals and ICBG into 21 animals (L3-L4). No group showed evidence of systemic toxicity by multiple assessments. All levels were fused by manual palpation at 26 weeks. Serial CT scans showed increasing fusion scores over time. Both doses of OsteoAdapt SP resulted in robust new bone formation and progression of fusion in the interbody cage. Range of motion tests for treatment groups was lower compared with ICBG at 8- and 16 weeks. Similarly, histology at eight weeks demonstrated more robust new bone formation for both OsteoAdapt SP groups compared to autograft. CONCLUSION: We have demonstrated the preclinical safety and efficacy of OsteoAdapt SP in a clinically relevant large animal model, supporting faster and more robust new bone formation within the interbody cage, comparable to or better than the gold standard, ICBG, in all measures.

What Is Ailing Oncology Clinical Trials? Can We Fix Them?

Evidence from phase three clinical trials helps shape clinical practice. However, a very small minority of patients with cancer participate in clinical trials and many trials are not completed on time due to slow accrual. Issues with restrictive eligibility criteria can severely limit the patients who can access trials, without any convincing evidence that these restrictions impact patient safety. Similarly, regulatory, organizational, and institutional hurdles can delay trial activation, ultimately making some studies irrelevant. Additional issues during trial conduct (e.g., mandatory in-person visits, central confirmation of standard biomarkers, and inflexible drug dosage modification) contribute to making trials non-patient-centric. These real-life observations from experienced clinical trialists can seem nonsensical to investigators and patients alike, who are trying to bring effective drugs to patients with cancer. In this review, we delve into these issues in detail, and discuss potential solutions to make clinical trials more accessible to patients.

Top 10 research priorities for congenital diaphragmatic hernia in Australia: James Lind Alliance Priority Setting Partnership.

OBJECTIVES: The Gaps in the Congenital Diaphragmatic Hernia (CDH) Journey Priority Setting Partnership (PSP) was developed in collaboration with CDH Australia, James Lind Alliance (JLA) and the Murdoch Children's Research Institute to identify research priorities for people with CDH, their families and healthcare workers in Australasia. DESIGN: Research PSP in accordance with the JLA standardised methodology. SETTING: Australian community and institutions caring for patients with CDH and their families. PATIENTS: CDH survivors, families of children born with CDH (including bereaved) and healthcare professionals including critical care physicians and nurses (neonatal and paediatric), obstetric, surgical, allied health professionals (physiotherapists, speech pathologists and speech therapists) and general practitioners. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Top 10 research priorities for CDH. RESULTS: 377 questions, from a community-based online survey, were categorised and collated into 50 research questions. Through a further prioritisation process, 21 questions were then discussed at a prioritisation workshop where they were ranked by 21 participants (CDH survivors, parents of children born with CDH (bereaved and not) and 11 multidisciplinary healthcare professionals) into their top 10 research priorities. CONCLUSION: Stakeholders' involvement identified the top 10 CDH-related research questions, spanning from antenatal care to long-term functional outcomes, that should be prioritised for future research to maximise meaningful outcomes for people with CDH and their families.

New Anticancer Drugs: Reliably Assessing "Value" While Addressing High Prices.

Countries face challenges in paying for new drugs. High prices are driven in part by exploding drug development costs, which, in turn, are driven by essential but excessive regulation. Burdensome regulation also delays drug development, and this can translate into thousands of life-years lost. We need system-wide reform that will enable less expensive, faster drug development. The speed with which COVID-19 vaccines and AIDS therapies were developed indicates this is possible if governments prioritize it. Countries also differ in how they value drugs, and generally, those willing to pay more have better, faster access. Canada is used as an example to illustrate how "incremental cost-effectiveness ratios" (ICERs) based on measures such as gains in "quality-adjusted life-years" (QALYs) may be used to determine a drug's value but are often problematic, imprecise assessments. Generally, ICER/QALY estimates inadequately consider the impact of patient crossover or long post-progression survival, therapy benefits in distinct subpopulations, positive impacts of the therapy on other healthcare or societal costs, how much governments willingly might pay for other things, etc. Furthermore, a QALY value should be higher for a lethal or uncommon disease than for a common, nonlethal disease. Compared to international comparators, Canada is particularly ineffective in initiating public funding for essential new medications. Addressing these disparities demands urgent reform.

Timeliness of Health Technology Assessments and Price Negotiations for Oncology Drugs in Canada.

Purpose: To evaluate whether time targets for Canadian Agency for Drugs and Technologies in Health (CADTH) reimbursement reviews and pan-Canadian Pharmaceutical Alliance (pCPA) price negotiations are being achieved for oncology drugs. Materials and Methods: Recommendations, dates of submission and publication, and indications for oncology medicines issued between January 2014 and December 2023 were recorded from CADTH's reimbursement reports webpage. The date any negotiation began and the date it was completed (successfully or not), or when a decision was made not to pursue negotiation was extracted from the pCPA's webpage. The duration of each CADTH review and pCPA negotiation was calculated, together with time between CADTH's recommendation and start of the pCPA negotiation or a decision not to negotiate. Percentages of reviews completed within CADTH's target and of times taken by the pCPA to decide whether to negotiate and by its price negotiations completed within the relevant targets were calculated. Results: CADTH achieved its 270-days target in 88.2% to 100% of reviews issued between 2015 and 2019 but only in 65.9% to 73.1% of reviews issued in the last three years of the decade. CADTH's "typical timeline" of 180 days was achieved in under 40% of reviews issued in 2015 and not attained in any review in 2021, 2022 or 2023. The pCPA's target of 60 days for deciding whether to negotiate was achieved for all recommendations issued in 2014 but dropped below 40% for the last seven years of the decade; its target of 130 days for negotiations was achieved for over 85% of the recommendations in 2014 but decreased to only 14.3% in 2016 and then gradually increased to 61.5% in 2023. Conclusion: CADTH's "typical timeline" and the pCPA's targets were not met sufficiently to be meaningful. Their processes take too long for cancer drugs.

Canadian patients and providers are often frustrated and concerned about the timeliness of the country's health technology assessment (HTA) and price negotiation processes, especially for cancer drugs. HTAs are carried out to evaluate the benefit of a medicine in comparison with its cost to see whether the drug is of sufficient value to add it to the benefit lists of government drug plans. HTAs are performed by the Canadian Agency for Drugs and Technologies in Health (CADTH) for all of Canada, except the province of Quebec, and price negotiations with drug developers are carried out by the pan-Canadian Pharmaceutical Alliance (pCPA) on behalf of all government drug plans. We used data from the websites of CADTH and the pCPA on HTA reviews of cancer drugs issued between January 2014 and December 2023 and price negotiations for these drugs to assess whether CADTH and the pCPA complied with their stated target times for completing their processes. We found that CADTH's reviews and the pCPA's price negotiations failed to meet their targets for cancer drugs in the past 10 years and that the timeliness of their performance has, in most cases, deteriorated. HTA and price negotiation processes for cancer drugs take too long in Canada.

Seizures exacerbate excitatory: inhibitory imbalance in Alzheimer's disease and 5XFAD mice.

Approximately 22% of Alzheimer's disease (AD) patients suffer from seizures, and the co-occurrence of seizures and epileptiform activity exacerbates AD pathology and related cognitive deficits, suggesting that seizures may be a targetable component of AD progression. Given that alterations in neuronal excitatory:inhibitory (E:I) balance occur in epilepsy, we hypothesized that decreased markers of inhibition relative to those of excitation would be present in AD patients. We similarly hypothesized that in 5XFAD mice, the E:I imbalance would progress from an early stage (prodromal) to later symptomatic stages and be further exacerbated by pentylenetetrazol (PTZ) kindling. Post-mortem AD temporal cortical tissues from patients with or without seizure history were examined for changes in several markers of E:I balance, including levels of the inhibitory GABAA receptor, the sodium potassium chloride cotransporter 1 (NKCC1) and potassium chloride cotransporter 2 (KCC2) and the excitatory NMDA and AMPA type glutamate receptors. We performed patch-clamp electrophysiological recordings from CA1 neurons in hippocampal slices and examined the same markers of E:I balance in prodromal 5XFAD mice. We next examined 5XFAD mice at chronic stages, after PTZ or control protocols, and in response to chronic mTORC1 inhibitor rapamycin, administered following kindled seizures, for markers of E:I balance. We found that AD patients with comorbid seizures had worsened cognitive and functional scores and decreased GABAA receptor subunit expression, as well as increased NKCC1/KCC2 ratios, indicative of depolarizing GABA responses. Patch clamp recordings of prodromal 5XFAD CA1 neurons showed increased intrinsic excitability, along with decreased GABAergic inhibitory transmission and altered glutamatergic neurotransmission, indicating that E:I imbalance may occur in early disease stages. Furthermore, seizure induction in prodromal 5XFAD mice led to later dysregulation of NKCC1/KCC2 and a reduction in GluA2 AMPA glutamate receptor subunit expression, indicative of depolarizing GABA receptors and calcium permeable AMPA receptors. Finally, we found that chronic treatment with the mTORC1 inhibitor, rapamycin, at doses we have previously shown to attenuate seizure-induced amyloid-ß pathology and cognitive deficits, could also reverse elevations of the NKCC1/KCC2 ratio in these mice. Our data demonstrate novel mechanisms of interaction between AD and epilepsy and indicate that targeting E:I balance, potentially with US Food and Drug Administration-approved mTOR inhibitors, hold therapeutic promise for AD patients with a seizure history.

Risk factors predicting the need for intensive care unit admission within forty-eight hours of emergency department presentation: A case-control study.

BACKGROUND: Patients admitted from the emergency department to the wards, who progress to a critically unwell state, may require expeditious admission to the intensive care unit. It can be argued that earlier recognition of such patients, to facilitate prompt transfer to intensive care, could be linked to more favourable clinical outcomes. Nevertheless, this can be clinically challenging, and there are currently no established evidence-based methods for predicting the need for intensive care in the future. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to analyse the emergency department data to describe the characteristics of patients who required an intensive care admission within 48 h of presentation. Secondly, we planned to test the feasibility of using this data to identify the associated risk factors for developing a predictive model. METHODS: We designed a retrospective case-control study. Cases were patients admitted to intensive care within 48 h of their emergency department presentation. Controls were patients who did not need an intensive care admission. Groups were matched based on age, gender, admission calendar month, and diagnosis. To identify the associated variables, we used a conditional logistic regression model. RESULTS: Compared to controls, cases were more likely to be obese, and smokers and had a higher prevalence of cardiovascular (39 [35.1%] vs 20 [18%], p = 0.004) and respiratory diagnoses (45 [40.5%] vs 25 [22.5%], p = 0.004). They received more medical emergency team reviews (53 [47.8%] vs 24 [21.6%], p < 0.001), and more patients had an acute resuscitation plan (31 [27.9%] vs 15 [13.5%], p = 0.008). The predictive model showed that having acute resuscitation plans, cardiovascular and respiratory diagnoses, and receiving medical emergency team reviews were strongly associated with having an intensive care admission within 48 h of presentation. CONCLUSIONS: Our study used emergency department data to provide a detailed description of patients who had an intensive care unit admission within 48 h of their presentation. It demonstrated the feasibility of using such data to identify the associated risk factors to develop a predictive model.

Clostridioides difficile infection is associated with differences in transcriptionally active microbial communities.

Clostridioides difficile infection (CDI) is responsible for around 300,000 hospitalizations yearly in the United States, with the associated monetary cost being billions of dollars. Gut microbiome dysbiosis is known to be important to CDI. To the best of our knowledge, metatranscriptomics (MT) has only been used to characterize gut microbiome composition and function in one prior study involving CDI patients. Therefore, we utilized MT to investigate differences in active community diversity and composition between CDI+ (n = 20) and CDI- (n = 19) samples with respect to microbial taxa and expressed genes. No significant (Kruskal-Wallis, p > 0.05) differences were detected for richness or evenness based on CDI status. However, clustering based on CDI status was significant for both active microbial taxa and expressed genes datasets (PERMANOVA, p ≤ 0.05). Furthermore, differential feature analysis revealed greater expression of the opportunistic pathogens Enterocloster bolteae and Ruminococcus gnavus in CDI+ compared to CDI- samples. When only fungal sequences were considered, the family Saccharomycetaceae expressed more genes in CDI-, while 31 other fungal taxa were identified as significantly (Kruskal-Wallis p ≤ 0.05, log(LDA) ≥ 2) associated with CDI+. We also detected a variety of genes and pathways that differed significantly (Kruskal-Wallis p ≤ 0.05, log(LDA) ≥ 2) based on CDI status. Notably, differential genes associated with biofilm formation were expressed by C. difficile. This provides evidence of another possible contributor to C. difficile's resistance to antibiotics and frequent recurrence in vivo. Furthermore, the greater number of CDI+ associated fungal taxa constitute additional evidence that the mycobiome is important to CDI pathogenesis. Future work will focus on establishing if C. difficile is actively producing biofilms during infection and if any specific fungal taxa are particularly influential in CDI.

Access to Oncology Medicines in Canada: Consensus Forum for Recommendations for Improvement.

Patient access to new oncology drugs in Canada is only possible after navigating multiple sequential systemic checkpoints for national regulatory approval, health technology assessment (HTA) and collective government price negotiation. These steps delay access and prevent health care providers from being able to prescribe optimal therapy. Eighteen Canadian oncology clinicians from the medicine, nursing and pharmacy professions met to develop consensus recommendations for defining reasonable government performance standards around process and timeliness to improve Canadian cancer patients' access to best care. A modified Delphi methodology was used to identify consensus on 30 questions involving five themes: accountability, disparities, endpoints, timeliness, and cost-effectiveness. It was agreed that greater transparency is required across regulatory and HTA processes. Health professionals in oncology are frustrated for their patients because they are unable to deliver the modern guideline-supported therapies they want to provide due to delays in approval or funding. Canadian health care providers request improvements in timely access to life-saving therapeutics in line with other comparator countries. Clinicians expect urgent improvements in Canadian health systems to give our patients their best chance of survival.

Outcomes for Young Adults With Suicide Admitted to Adult Versus Pediatric Hospitals.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate differences in care and outcomes for young adults admitted with suicide ideation (SI) or attempt (SA) to medical units of an adult (AH) versus pediatric hospital (PH). METHODS: Demographic and clinical characteristics were collected on patients aged 18 to 25 years admitted to either an AH or PH at an academic health system from September 2017 through June 2023 with a diagnosis of SI or SA. Outcomes measured were discharge location, length of stay (LOS), emergency department (ED) visit or hospital readmission, and inpatient consultations. Bivariate tests and multivariate regression were used to determine association of admission location and outcomes. RESULTS: Of 212 patients included, 54% were admitted to an AH and 46% to a PH. Admission to a PH compared with an AH was associated with shorter ED LOS (4.3 vs 7.3 hours, P < .01) and discharge to home (57% vs 42%, P = .028) on bivariate but not adjusted analysis. Admission location was not associated with hospital LOS, ED visit or medical readmission after discharge, or psychiatry consultation. Admission to a PH compared with an AH was associated with higher odds of psychology consultation (29 vs 3%, P < .01). CONCLUSIONS: Although young adults admitted to a PH for SI/SA had higher rates of psychology consultation, they otherwise had similar care and outcomes regardless of admission to an AH versus a PH. Further work is needed to determine if observed differences are generalizable and how they affect hospital throughput and long-term outcomes.

Population Survival Kinetics Derived from Clinical Trials of Potentially Curable Lung Cancers.

Using digitized data from progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival Kaplan-Meier curves, one can assess population survival kinetics through exponential decay nonlinear regression analyses. To demonstrate their utility, we analyzed PFS curves from published curative-intent trials of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) adjuvant chemotherapy, adjuvant osimertinib in resected EGFR-mutant NSCLC (ADAURA trial), chemoradiotherapy for inoperable NSCLC, and limited small cell lung cancer (SCLC). These analyses permit assessment of log-linear curve shape and estimation of the proportion of patients cured, PFS half-lives for subpopulations destined to eventually relapse, and probability of eventual relapse in patients remaining progression-free at different time points. The proportion of patients potentially cured was 41% for adjuvant controls, 58% with adjuvant chemotherapy, 17% for ADAURA controls, not assessable with adjuvant osimertinib, 15% with chemoradiotherapy, and 12% for SCLC. Median PFS half-life for relapsing subpopulations was 11.9 months for adjuvant controls, 17.4 months with adjuvant chemotherapy, 24.4 months for ADAURA controls, not assessable with osimertinib, 9.3 months with chemoradiotherapy, and 10.7 months for SCLC. For those remaining relapse-free at 2 and 5 years, the cure probability was 74%/96% for adjuvant controls, 77%/93% with adjuvant chemotherapy, 51%/94% with chemoradiation, and 39%/87% with limited SCLC. Relatively easy population kinetic analyses add useful information.