A Prospective Cohort Study of Antimony Exposure and Cognitive Impairment in Older Adults - China, 2017-2021.

What is already known about this topic?: Antimony (Sb) has been identified as a new neurotoxicant that impacts neurological functions in animal studies. However, its effects on the human population remain unknown. What is added by this report?: The study reveals that there is an association between exposure to Sb and a higher incidence of cognitive impairment in older adults. The dose-response curve demonstrates that the risk of cognitive impairment consistently increased with higher levels of Sb exposure without a discernible threshold. What are the implications for public health practice?: Reducing exposure to Sb may have a beneficial effect in delaying or preventing the onset of cognitive impairment. This intervention has the potential to significantly decrease the disease burden associated with cognitive impairment, ultimately contributing to social development.

Global and Regional Cardiovascular Mortality Attributable to Nonoptimal Temperatures Over Time.

BACKGROUND: The association between nonoptimal temperatures and cardiovascular mortality risk is recognized. However, a comprehensive global assessment of this burden is lacking. OBJECTIVES: The goal of this study was to assess global cardiovascular mortality burden attributable to nonoptimal temperatures and investigate spatiotemporal trends. METHODS: Using daily cardiovascular deaths and temperature data from 32 countries, a 3-stage analytical approach was applied. First, location-specific temperature-mortality associations were estimated, considering nonlinearity and delayed effects. Second, a multivariate meta-regression model was developed between location-specific effect estimates and 5 meta-predictors. Third, cardiovascular deaths associated with nonoptimal, cold, and hot temperatures for each global grid (55 km × 55 km resolution) were estimated, and temporal trends from 2000 to 2019 were explored. RESULTS: Globally, 1,801,513 (95% empirical CI: 1,526,632-2,202,831) annual cardiovascular deaths were associated with nonoptimal temperatures, constituting 8.86% (95% empirical CI: 7.51%-12.32%) of total cardiovascular mortality corresponding to 26 deaths per 100,000 population. Cold-related deaths accounted for 8.20% (95% empirical CI: 6.74%-11.57%), whereas heat-related deaths accounted for 0.66% (95% empirical CI: 0.49%-0.98%). The mortality burden varied significantly across regions, with the highest excess mortality rates observed in Central Asia and Eastern Europe. From 2000 to 2019, cold-related excess death ratios decreased, while heat-related ratios increased, resulting in an overall decline in temperature-related deaths. Southeastern Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Oceania observed the greatest reduction, while Southern Asia experienced an increase. The Americas and several regions in Asia and Europe displayed fluctuating temporal patterns. CONCLUSIONS: Nonoptimal temperatures substantially contribute to cardiovascular mortality, with heterogeneous spatiotemporal patterns. Effective mitigation and adaptation strategies are crucial, especially given the increasing heat-related cardiovascular deaths amid climate change.

Drivers of associations between daytime-nighttime compound temperature extremes and mortality in China.

BACKGROUND: Temperature extremes are anticipated to become more frequent and more intense under the context of climate change. While current evidence on health effects of compound extreme temperature event is scarce. METHODS: This nationwide cross-sectional study collected daily data on weather and mortality for 161 Chinese districts/counties during 2007-2013. A quasi-Poisson generalized linear model was first applied to assess effects of daytime-only, nighttime-only and compound daytime-nighttime heat wave (and cold spell) on cause-specific mortality. Then a random-effect meta-analysis was used to produce pooled estimates at national level. Stratification analyses were performed by relative humidity, individual and regional characteristics. RESULTS: Here we show that mortality risks of compound daytime-nighttime temperature extremes are much higher than those occurring only in the daytime or nighttime. Humid weather further exaggerates the mortality risk during heat waves, while dry air enhances the risk during cold weather. People who are elderly, illiterate, and those with ischemic heart disease and respiratory disease are particularly vulnerable to extreme temperature. At the community-level, population size, urbanization rate, proportion of elderly and PM2.5 are positively associated with increased risks associated with heat waves. Temperature, humidity and normalized difference vegetation index are positively associated with the effects of cold weather, with an opposite trend for latitude and diurnal temperature range. CONCLUSIONS: This nationwide study highlights the importance of incorporating compound daytime-nighttime extreme temperature events and humid conditions into early warning systems and urban design/planning.

Ongoing climate change has exaggerated the frequency and intensity of severe climate events, leading to substantial health and socioeconomic consequences. We assessed deaths in China during periods when many extreme climate events occurred at the same or similar times. We looked at deaths occurring during periods when both daytime and nighttime temperatures were very hot or cold. We found more serious health effects were seen when temperatures remained hot or cold during the day and night compared to when it was just hot or cold during the day or night. Other factors including humidity, preexisting heart or respiratory disease and age also impacted the risk of death. Our study highlights the detrimental health effects of many extreme climate events occurring together and the need for both people and governments to consider approaches to reduce these negative effects.

Association between heatwaves and risk and economic burden of injury related hospitalizations in China.

BACKGROUND: Public health is greatly affected by heatwaves, especially as a result of climate change. It is unclear whether heatwaves affect injury hospitalization, especially as developing countries facing the impact of climate change. OBJECTIVES: To assess the impact of heatwaves on injury-related hospitalization and the economic burden. METHODS: The daily hospitalizations and meteorological data from 2014 to 2019 were collected from 23 study sites in 11 meteorological geographic zones in China. We conducted a two-stage time series analysis based on a time-stratified case-crossover design, combined with DLNM to assess the association between heatwaves and daily injury hospitalization, and to further assess the regional and national economic losses resulting from hospitalization by calculating excess hospitalization costs (direct economic losses) and labor losses (indirect economic losses). To determine the vulnerable groups and areas, we also carried out stratified analyses by age, sex, and region. RESULTS: We found that 6.542% (95%CI: 3.939%, 9.008 %) of injury hospitalization were attributable to heatwaves during warm season (May to September) from 2014 to 2019. Approximately 361,447 injury hospitalizations were attributed to heatwaves each year in China, leading to an excess economic loss of 5.173 (95%CI: 3.104, 7.196) billion CNY, of which 3.114 (95%CI: 1.454, 4.720) billion CNY for males and 4.785 (95%CI: 3.203, 6.321) billion CNY for people aged 15-64 years. The attributable fraction (AF) of injury hospitalizations due to heatwaves was the highest in the plateau mountain climate zone, followed by the subtropical monsoon climate zone and the temperate monsoon climate zone. CONCLUSIONS: Heatwaves significantly increase the disease and economic burden of injury hospitalizations, and vary across populations and regions. Our findings implicate the necessity for targeted measures, including raising public awareness, improving healthcare infrastructure, and developing climate resilience policies, to reduce the threat of heatwaves to vulnerable populations and the associated disease and economic burden.

Personal exposure to airborne organic pollutants and lung function changes among healthy older adults.

Epidemiological evidence on the impact of airborne organic pollutants on lung function among the elderly is limited, and their underlying biological mechanisms remain largely unexplored. Herein, a longitudinal panel study was conducted in Jinan, Shandong Province, China, involving 76 healthy older adults monitored over a span of five months repetitively. We systematically evaluated personal exposure to a diverse range of airborne organic pollutants using a wearable passive sampler and their effects on lung function. Participants' pulmonary function indicators were assessed, complemented by comprehensive multi-omics analyses of blood and urine samples. Leveraging the power of interaction analysis, causal inference test (CIT), and integrative pathway analysis (IPA), we explored intricate relationships between specific organic pollutants, biomolecules, and lung function deterioration, elucidating the biological mechanisms underpinning the adverse impacts of these pollutants. We observed that bis (2-chloro-1-methylethyl) ether (BCIE) was significantly associated with negative changes in the forced vital capacity (FVC), with glycerolipids mitigating this adverse effect. Additionally, 31 canonical pathways [e.g., high mobility group box 1 (HMGB1) signaling, phosphatidylinositol 3-kinase (PI3K)/AKT pathway, epithelial mesenchymal transition, and heme and nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide (NAD) biosynthesis] were identified as potential mechanisms. These findings may hold significant implications for developing effective strategies to prevent and mitigate respiratory health risks arising from exposure to such airborne pollutants. However, due to certain limitations of the study, our results should be interpreted with caution.

Associations of Insecticide Exposure with Childhood Asthma and Wheezing: A Population-Based Cross-Sectional Study in Sanya, China.

Insecticide exposure may affect childhood asthma/wheezing, but evidence is scarce in low- and middle-income countries. We conducted a population-based cross-sectional study in Sanya, China. Generalized linear models were adopted to assess the associations of insecticide exposure with childhood asthma/wheezing, reported as odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). A subgroup analysis was performed to explore the possible effects of sociodemographic and environmental factors on these associations. The median age of the 9754 children was 6.7 years, and 5345 (54.8%) were boys. The prevalences of ever asthma (EA), ever wheezing (EW), and current wheezing (CW) were 7.4%, 5.3%, and 2.9%, respectively. We found a greater prevalence of childhood EA with insecticide exposure (OR = 1.18, 95% CI: 1.00, 1.38). Outdoor insecticide exposure was associated with elevated ORs for EA (1.24, 95% CI: 1.03, 1.50), EW (1.27, 95% CI: 1.03, 1.57), and CW (1.38, 95% CI: 1.04, 1.81). The p for the trend in insecticide exposure frequency was significant for EA (p = 0.001) and CW (p = 0.034). These adverse impacts were pronounced in girls who were exposed to low temperatures. Our findings suggest adverse effects of insecticide use, especially outdoors, on childhood asthma/wheezing. Further studies are warranted to verify this association and develop tailored prevention measures.

Multimorbidity and emergency hospitalisations during hot weather.

BACKGROUND: People with chronic diseases are a commonly listed heat-vulnerable group in heat-health action plans. While prior research identifies multiple health conditions that may increase vulnerability to ambient heat, there is minimal evidence regarding the implications of multimorbidity (two or more chronic diseases). METHODS: From the statewide hospital registry of Queensland, Australia, we identified people aged ≥15 years who had emergency hospitalisation(s) between March 2004 and April 2016 and previously had 0, 1, 2, or ≥3 of five chronic diseases: cardiovascular disease, diabetes, mental disorders, asthma/COPD, and chronic kidney disease. We conducted time-stratified case-crossover analyses to estimate the odds ratio of hospitalisations associated with ambient heat exposure in people with different numbers, types, and combinations of chronic diseases. Ambient heat exposure was defined as a 5 °C increase in daily mean temperature above the median. FINDINGS: There were 2,263,427 emergency hospitalisations recorded (48.7% in males and 51.3% in females). When the mean temperature increased, hospitalisation odds increased with chronic disease number, particularly in older persons (≥65 years), males, and non-indigenous people. For instance, in older persons with 0, 1, 2, or ≥3 chronic diseases, the odds ratios associated with ambient heat exposure were 1.00 (95% confidence interval: 0.96, 1.04), 1.06 (1.02, 1.09), 1.08 (1.02, 1.14), and 1.13 (1.07, 1.19), respectively. Among the chronic diseases, chronic kidney disease, and asthma/COPD, either existing alone, together, or in combination with other diseases, were associated with the highest odds of hospitalisations under ambient heat exposure. INTERPRETATION: While individuals with multimorbidity are considered in heat-health action plans, this study suggests the need to consider specifically examining them as a distinct and vulnerable subgroup. FUNDING: Wellcome.

Accountability analysis of health benefits related to National Action Plan on Air Pollution Prevention and Control in China.

China is one of the largest producers and consumers of coal in the world. The National Action Plan on Air Pollution Prevention and Control in China (2013-2017) particularly aimed to reduce emissions from coal combustion. Here, we show whether the acute health effects of PM2.5 changed from 2013 to 2018 and factors that might account for any observed changes in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) and the surrounding areas where there were major reductions in PM2.5 concentrations. We used a two-stage analysis strategy, with a quasi-Poisson regression model and a random effects meta-analysis, to assess the effects of PM2.5 on mortality in the 47 counties of BTH. We found that the mean daily PM2.5 levels and the SO42- component ratio dramatically decreased in the study period, which was likely related to the control of coal emissions. Subsequently, the acute effects of PM2.5 were significantly decreased for total and circulatory mortality. A 10 µg/m3 increase in PM2.5 concentrations was associated with a 0.16% (95% CI: 0.08, 0.24%) and 0.02% (95% CI: -0.09, 0.13%) increase in mortality from 2013 to 2015 and from 2016 to 2018, respectively. The changes in air pollution sources or PM2.5 components appeared to have played a core role in reducing the health effects. The air pollution control measures implemented recently targeting coal emissions taken in China may have resulted in significant health benefits.

Comparison for the effects of different components of temperature variability on mortality: A multi-country time-series study.

BACKGROUND: Temperature variability (TV) is associated with increased mortality risk. However, it is still unknown whether intra-day or inter-day TV has different effects. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to assess the association of intra-day TV and inter-day TV with all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality. METHODS: We collected data on total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality and meteorology from 758 locations in 47 countries or regions from 1972 to 2020. We defined inter-day TV as the standard deviation (SD) of daily mean temperatures across the lag interval, and intra-day TV as the average SD of minimum and maximum temperatures on each day. In the first stage, inter-day and intra-day TVs were modelled simultaneously in the quasi-Poisson time-series model for each location. In the second stage, a multi-level analysis was used to pool the location-specific estimates. RESULTS: Overall, the mortality risk due to each interquartile range [IQR] increase was higher for intra-day TV than for inter-day TV. The risk increased by 0.59% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.53, 0.65) for all-cause mortality, 0.64% (95% CI: 0.56, 0.73) for cardiovascular mortality, and 0.65% (95% CI: 0.49, 0.80) for respiratory mortality per IQR increase in intra-day TV0-7 (0.9 °C). An IQR increase in inter-day TV0-7 (1.6 °C) was associated with 0.22% (95% CI: 0.18, 0.26) increase in all-cause mortality, 0.44% (95% CI: 0.37, 0.50) increase in cardiovascular mortality, and 0.31% (95% CI: 0.21, 0.41) increase in respiratory mortality. The proportion of all-cause deaths attributable to intra-day TV0-7 and inter-day TV0-7 was 1.45% and 0.35%, respectively. The mortality risks varied by lag interval, climate area, season, and climate type. CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicated that intra-day TV may explain the main part of the mortality risk related to TV and suggested that comprehensive evaluations should be proposed in more countries to help protect human health.

Global, regional, and national burden of heatwave-related mortality from 1990 to 2019: A three-stage modelling study.

BACKGROUND: The regional disparity of heatwave-related mortality over a long period has not been sufficiently assessed across the globe, impeding the localisation of adaptation planning and risk management towards climate change. We quantified the global mortality burden associated with heatwaves at a spatial resolution of 0.5°×0.5° and the temporal change from 1990 to 2019. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We collected data on daily deaths and temperature from 750 locations of 43 countries or regions, and 5 meta-predictors in 0.5°×0.5° resolution across the world. Heatwaves were defined as location-specific daily mean temperature ≥95th percentiles of year-round temperature range with duration ≥2 days. We first estimated the location-specific heatwave-mortality association. Secondly, a multivariate meta-regression was fitted between location-specific associations and 5 meta-predictors, which was in the third stage used with grid cell-specific meta-predictors to predict grid cell-specific association. Heatwave-related excess deaths were calculated for each grid and aggregated. During 1990 to 2019, 0.94% (95% CI: 0.68-1.19) of deaths [i.e., 153,078 cases (95% eCI: 109,950-194,227)] per warm season were estimated to be from heatwaves, accounting for 236 (95% eCI: 170-300) deaths per 10 million residents. The ratio between heatwave-related excess deaths and all premature deaths per warm season remained relatively unchanged over the 30 years, while the number of heatwave-related excess deaths per 10 million residents per warm season declined by 7.2% per decade in comparison to the 30-year average. Locations with the highest heatwave-related death ratio and rate were in Southern and Eastern Europe or areas had polar and alpine climates, and/or their residents had high incomes. The temporal change of heatwave-related mortality burden showed geographic disparities, such that locations with tropical climate or low incomes were observed with the greatest decline. The main limitation of this study was the lack of data from certain regions, e.g., Arabian Peninsula and South Asia. CONCLUSIONS: Heatwaves were associated with substantial mortality burden that varied spatiotemporally over the globe in the past 30 years. The findings indicate the potential benefit of governmental actions to enhance health sector adaptation and resilience, accounting for inequalities across communities.

Body mass index, waist circumference, and mortality in subjects older than 80 years: a Mendelian randomization study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Emerging evidence has raised an obesity paradox in observational studies of body mass index (BMI) and health among the oldest-old (aged ≥80 years), as an inverse relationship of BMI with mortality was reported. This study was to investigate the causal associations of BMI, waist circumference (WC), or both with mortality in the oldest-old people in China. METHODS: A total of 5306 community-based oldest-old (mean age 90.6 years) were enrolled in the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS) between 1998 and 2018. Genetic risk scores were constructed from 58 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with BMI and 49 SNPs associated with WC to subsequently derive causal estimates for Mendelian randomization (MR) models. One-sample linear MR along with non-linear MR analyses were performed to explore the associations of genetically predicted BMI, WC, and their joint effect with all-cause mortality, cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality, and non-CVD mortality. RESULTS: During 24 337 person-years of follow-up, 3766 deaths were documented. In observational analyses, higher BMI and WC were both associated with decreased mortality risk [hazard ratio (HR) 0.963, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.955-0.971 for a 1-kg/m2 increment of BMI and HR 0.971 (95% CI 0.950-0.993) for each 5 cm increase of WC]. Linear MR models indicated that each 1 kg/m2 increase in genetically predicted BMI was monotonically associated with a 4.5% decrease in all-cause mortality risk [HR 0.955 (95% CI 0.928-0.983)]. Non-linear curves showed the lowest mortality risk at the BMI of around 28.0 kg/m2, suggesting that optimal BMI for the oldest-old may be around overweight or mild obesity. Positive monotonic causal associations were observed between WC and all-cause mortality [HR 1.108 (95% CI 1.036-1.185) per 5 cm increase], CVD mortality [HR 1.193 (95% CI 1.064-1.337)], and non-CVD mortality [HR 1.110 (95% CI 1.016-1.212)]. The joint effect analyses indicated that the lowest risk was observed among those with higher BMI and lower WC. CONCLUSIONS: Among the oldest-old, opposite causal associations of BMI and WC with mortality were observed, and a body figure with higher BMI and lower WC could substantially decrease the mortality risk. Guidelines for the weight management should be cautiously designed and implemented among the oldest-old people, considering distinct roles of BMI and WC.

Association between exposure to chemical mixtures and epigenetic ageing biomarkers: Modifying effects of thyroid hormones and physical activity.

Evidence on the effects of internal chemical mixture exposures on biological age is limited. It also remains unclear whether hormone homeostasis and lifestyle factors can modify such a relationship. Based on the Biomarkers for Air Pollutants Exposure (BAPE) study, which involved healthy older adults aged 60-69 years in China, we found that chemical mixture exposures, including metals, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs), phthalates (PAEs), and organophosphate esters (OPEs), were significantly associated with shortened DNAmTL and accelerated SkinBloodClock, in which PFASs and OPEs in blood were the primary contributors to DNAmTL, while metals and PAEs had relatively higher contributions in urine. Furthermore, lower levels of thyroxin appeared to exacerbate the adverse effects of environmental chemicals on epigenetic ageing but relatively higher levels of physical activity had the beneficial impact. These findings may have important implications for the development of healthy ageing strategy and aged care policy, particularly in light of the global acceleration of population ageing.

Medium-term exposure to size-fractioned particulate matter and asthma exacerbations in China: A longitudinal study of asthmatics with poor medication adherence.

BACKGROUND: Studies have shown that short- and long-term exposure to particulate matter (PM) can increase the risk of asthma morbidity and mortality. However, the effect of medium-term exposure remains unknown. We aim to examine the effect of medium-term exposure to size-fractioned PM on asthma exacerbations among asthmatics with poor medication adherence. METHODS: We conducted a longitudinal study in China based on the National Mobile Asthma Management System Project that specifically and routinely followed asthma exacerbations in asthmatics with poor medication adherence from April 2017 to May 2019. High-resolution satellite remote-sensing data were used to estimate each participant's medium-term exposure (on average 90 days) to size-fractioned PM (PM1, PM2.5, and PM10) based on the residential address and the date of the follow-up when asthma exacerbations (e.g., hospitalizations and emergency room visits) occurred or the end of the follow-up. The Cox proportional hazards model was employed to examine the hazard ratio of asthma exacerbations associated with each PM after controlling for sex, age, BMI, education level, geographic region, and temperature. RESULTS: Modelling results revealed nonlinear exposure-response associations of asthma exacerbations with medium-term exposure to PM1, PM2.5, and PM10. Specifically, for emergency room visits, we found an increased hazard ratio for PM1 above 22.8 µg/m3 (1.060, 95 % CI: 1.025-1.096, per 1 µg/m3 increase), PM2.5 above 38.2 µg/m3 (1.032, 95 % CI: 1.010-1.054), and PM10 above 78.6 µg/m3 (1.019, 95 % CI: 1.006-1.032). For hospitalizations, we also found an increased hazard ratio for PM1 above 20.3 µg/m3 (1.055, 95 % CI: 1.001-1.111) and PM2.5 above 39.2 µg/m3 (1.038, 95 % CI: 1.003-1.074). Furthermore, the effects of PM were greater for a longer exposure window (90-180 days) and among participants with a high BMI. CONCLUSION: This study suggests that medium-term exposure to PM is associated with an increased risk of asthma exacerbations in asthmatics with poor medication adherence, with a higher risk from smaller PM.

Ozone-related acute excess mortality projected to increase in the absence of climate and air quality controls consistent with the Paris Agreement.

Short-term exposure to ground-level ozone in cities is associated with increased mortality and is expected to worsen with climate and emission changes. However, no study has yet comprehensively assessed future ozone-related acute mortality across diverse geographic areas, various climate scenarios, and using CMIP6 multi-model ensembles, limiting our knowledge on future changes in global ozone-related acute mortality and our ability to design targeted health policies. Here, we combine CMIP6 simulations and epidemiological data from 406 cities in 20 countries or regions. We find that ozone-related deaths in 406 cities will increase by 45 to 6,200 deaths/year between 2010 and 2014 and between 2050 and 2054, with attributable fractions increasing in all climate scenarios (from 0.17% to 0.22% total deaths), except the single scenario consistent with the Paris Climate Agreement (declines from 0.17% to 0.15% total deaths). These findings stress the need for more stringent air quality regulations, as current standards in many countries are inadequate.

Global, regional, and national burden of mortality associated with cold spells during 2000-19: a three-stage modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Exposure to cold spells is associated with mortality. However, little is known about the global mortality burden of cold spells. METHODS: A three-stage meta-analytical method was used to estimate the global mortality burden associated with cold spells by means of a time series dataset of 1960 locations across 59 countries (or regions). First, we fitted the location-specific, cold spell-related mortality associations using a quasi-Poisson regression with a distributed lag non-linear model with a lag period of up to 21 days. Second, we built a multivariate meta-regression model between location-specific associations and seven predictors. Finally, we predicted the global grid-specific cold spell-related mortality associations during 2000-19 using the fitted meta-regression model and the yearly grid-specific meta-predictors. We calculated the annual excess deaths, excess death ratio (excess deaths per 1000 deaths), and excess death rate (excess deaths per 100 000 population) due to cold spells for each grid across the world. FINDINGS: Globally, 205 932 (95% empirical CI [eCI] 162 692-250 337) excess deaths, representing 3·81 (95% eCI 2·93-4·71) excess deaths per 1000 deaths (excess death ratio), and 3·03 (2·33-3·75) excess deaths per 100 000 population (excess death rate) were associated with cold spells per year between 2000 and 2019. The annual average global excess death ratio in 2016-19 increased by 0·12 percentage points and the excess death rate in 2016-19 increased by 0·18 percentage points, compared with those in 2000-03. The mortality burden varied geographically. The excess death ratio and rate were highest in Europe, whereas these indicators were lowest in Africa. Temperate climates had higher excess death ratio and rate associated with cold spells than other climate zones. INTERPRETATION: Cold spells are associated with substantial mortality burden around the world with geographically varying patterns. Although the number of cold spells has on average been decreasing since year 2000, the public health threat of cold spells remains substantial. The findings indicate an urgency of taking local and regional measures to protect the public from the mortality burdens of cold spells. FUNDING: Australian Research Council, Australian National Health and Medical Research Council, EU's Horizon 2020 Project Exhaustion.

Seasonality of mortality under climate change: a multicountry projection study.

BACKGROUND: Climate change can directly impact temperature-related excess deaths and might subsequently change the seasonal variation in mortality. In this study, we aimed to provide a systematic and comprehensive assessment of potential future changes in the seasonal variation, or seasonality, of mortality across different climate zones. METHODS: In this modelling study, we collected daily time series of mean temperature and mortality (all causes or non-external causes only) via the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative (MCC) Research Network. These data were collected during overlapping periods, spanning from Jan 1, 1969 to Dec 31, 2020. We projected daily mortality from Jan 1, 2000 to Dec 31, 2099, under four climate change scenarios corresponding to increasing emissions (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways [SSP] scenarios SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). We compared the seasonality in projected mortality between decades by its shape, timings (the day-of-year) of minimum (trough) and maximum (peak) mortality, and sizes (peak-to-trough ratio and attributable fraction). Attributable fraction was used to measure the burden of seasonality of mortality. The results were summarised by climate zones. FINDINGS: The MCC dataset included 126 809 537 deaths from 707 locations within 43 countries or areas. After excluding the only two polar locations (both high-altitude locations in Peru) from climatic zone assessments, we analysed 126 766 164 deaths in 705 locations aggregated in four climate zones (tropical, arid, temperate, and continental). From the 2000s to the 2090s, our projections showed an increase in mortality during the warm seasons and a decrease in mortality during the cold seasons, albeit with mortality remaining high during the cold seasons, under all four SSP scenarios in the arid, temperate, and continental zones. The magnitude of this changing pattern was more pronounced under the high-emission scenarios (SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5), substantially altering the shape of seasonality of mortality and, under the highest emission scenario (SSP5-8.5), shifting the mortality peak from cold seasons to warm seasons in arid, temperate, and continental zones, and increasing the size of seasonality in all zones except the arid zone by the end of the century. In the 2090s compared with the 2000s, the change in peak-to-trough ratio (relative scale) ranged from 0·96 to 1·11, and the change in attributable fraction ranged from 0·002% to 0·06% under the SSP5-8.5 (highest emission) scenario. INTERPRETATION: A warming climate can substantially change the seasonality of mortality in the future. Our projections suggest that health-care systems should consider preparing for a potentially increased demand during warm seasons and sustained high demand during cold seasons, particularly in regions characterised by arid, temperate, and continental climates. FUNDING: The Environment Research and Technology Development Fund of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency, provided by the Ministry of the Environment of Japan.

Effects of climate and environment on migratory old people with allergic diseases in China: Protocol for a Sanya cohort study.

Background: Several studies have reported that the mountain climate can alleviate asthma, however, the effect of tropical climate on migratory elderly, especially in people with respiratory or allergic diseases is unknown. Objectives: This cohort study aims to explore impact of climate and environmental changes on allergic diseases in migratory old people. Methods: In this prospective cohort study, we recruited 750 older migratory people, the majority of whom were homeowners to minimize the risk of loss to follow up. The study's inclusion criteria were elderly individuals had moved from northern China to Sanya and suffered from either asthma or allergic diseases. Prior to participation, these individuals provided informed consent and underwent baseline assessment. Subsequently, they will be followed for three years. A face-to-face interview was conducted to gather information regarding their living environment and habits. Trained investigators administered the questionnaires and performed physical examinations including height, weight, and blood pressure, while a professional respiratory doctor conducted pulmonary function tests. Blood samples were promptly tested routine blood test, liver function, kidney function, glucose, triglyceride, allergens, and inflammatory factors. Climate and environmental data were obtained from Sanya Meteorological Bureau and Ecological Environment Bureau, respectively. We primarily compared the differences of participants with asthma or allergic diseases between northern China and Sanya in southern China by Chi-square test, t-test or Wilcoxon rank-sum test. Findings: A total of 750 participants were recruited in this cohort from fourteen communities. All participants were surveyed questionnaires about health and family environment, underwent physical examinations, and collected biological samples for laboratory examinations. Novelty: This is the first study to evaluate the effects of tropical climate and environment on elderly migrants from cold regions. This study has important implication for the health tourism and aging health, especially for the elderly migrants who suffered the respiratory and allergic diseases. Furthermore, this cohort study establishes a solid foundation for investigating the influence of environmental changes on elderly migrants with allergic diseases.

China's public health initiatives for climate change adaptation.

China's health gains over the past decades face potential reversals if climate change adaptation is not prioritized. China's temperature rise surpasses the global average due to urban heat islands and ecological changes, and demands urgent actions to safeguard public health. Effective adaptation need to consider China's urbanization trends, underlying non-communicable diseases, an aging population, and future pandemic threats. Climate change adaptation initiatives and strategies include urban green space, healthy indoor environments, spatial planning for cities, advance location-specific early warning systems for extreme weather events, and a holistic approach for linking carbon neutrality to health co-benefits. Innovation and technology uptake is a crucial opportunity. China's successful climate adaptation can foster international collaboration regionally and beyond.

Sanya climatic-treatment cohort profile: objectives, design, and baseline characteristics.

Background: The prevalence of allergic diseases has increased globally, climate and environment also have important effects on respiratory or allergic diseases. However, population-based studies investigating the impact of tropical climates and environments on migratory-bird old people (MBOP) are lacking. Methods/Design: For this prospective cohort study, we recruited 756 participants from the community in Sanya City, Hainan Province, China. In addition to the completed baseline survey, a follow-up survey will be conducted during the periods of October-December and March-April for the next 3 years of MBEPs from northern China who spend the winter in Sanya. We will continue to record the height, weight, and blood pressure of all participants, as well as lung function for those with asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Venous blood at baseline and urine samples will be collected during follow-up. Results: A total of 756 volunteers were recruited. Their average age is 66.1 years; 32.1% of them have high-school educations, while 37.3% have graduated from college or done undergraduate studies. The top five diseases in this cohort are allergic rhinitis (57.9%); eczema, urticaria, or dermatitis (35.6%); bronchitis and bronchiectasis (35.6%); asthma (14.7%); and emphysema (11.7%). Compared with their symptoms while at their summer places of residence, rates of remission reported by participants while living in Sanya were 80.4% for allergic rhinitis, 82.3% for bronchitis and emphysema, 85.2% for asthma, 96.0% for COPD (P < 0.001). Conclusions: The baseline survey has been completed. The preliminary findings support that a tropical climate may relieve the symptoms of allergic diseases in migratory-bird old people.