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The importance of social drivers of health (SDOH) in the occurrence, detection, treatment, and outcome of atrial fibrillation (AF) has attracted increasing attention. Addressing SDOH factors may suggest opportunities to prevent AF and its complications. We aimed to conduct a structured narrative review and summarize current knowledge on the association between race and ethnicity, SDOH, including rural vs. urban habitation, education, income, and neighbourhood, and the risk of AF, its management, and complications. We identified 537 references in PubMed and 473 references in Embase. After removal of duplicates, we screened the abstracts of 975 references, resulting in 113 references that were examined for eligibility. Subsequently, 34 references were excluded leaving 79 references for the review. Evidence of a social gradient in AF incidence and prevelance were conflicting. However, we found substantial evidence indicating social inequities in the detection of AF, access to treatment, and outcomes such as healthcare utilization, bleeding, heart failure, stroke, dementia, work disability, and death. Inequities are reported across various health care systems and constitute a global problem affecting several continents, although data from Africa and South America are lacking. Given the documented social inequities in AF detection, management, and outcomes, there is an urgent need for healthcare systems, policymakers, and society to identify and implement effective interventions that can reduce inequities and improve outcomes in individuals with AF.
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BACKGROUND: Coronary microvascular dysfunction has been implicated in the development of hypertensive heart disease and heart failure, with subendocardial ischemia identified as a driver of sustained myocardial injury and fibrosis. We aimed to evaluate the relationships of subendocardial perfusion with cardiac injury, structure, and a composite of major adverse cardiovascular and cerebral events consisting of death, heart failure hospitalization, myocardial infarction, and stroke. METHODS: Layer-specific blood flow and myocardial flow reserve (MFR; stress/rest myocardial blood flow) were assessed by 13N-ammonia perfusion positron emission tomography in consecutive patients with hypertension without flow-limiting coronary artery disease (summed stress score <3) imaged at Brigham and Women's Hospital (Boston, MA) from 2015 to 2021. In this post hoc observational study, biomarkers, echocardiographic parameters, and longitudinal clinical outcomes were compared by tertiles of subendocardial MFR (MFRsubendo). RESULTS: Among 358 patients, the mean age was 70.6±12.0 years, and 53.4% were male. The median MFRsubendo was 2.57 (interquartile range, 2.08-3.10), and lower MFRsubendo was associated with older age, diabetes, lower renal function, greater coronary calcium burden, and higher systolic blood pressure (P<0.05 for all). In cross-sectional multivariable regression analyses, the lowest tertile of MFRsubendo was associated with myocardial injury and with greater left ventricular wall thickness and volumes compared with the highest tertile. Relative to the highest tertile, low MFRsubendo was independently associated with an increased rate of major adverse cardiovascular and cerebral events (adjusted hazard ratio, 2.99 [95% CI, 1.39-6.44]; P=0.005) and heart failure hospitalization (adjusted hazard ratio, 2.76 [95% CI, 1.04-7.32; P=0.042) over 1.1 (interquartile range, 0.6-2.8) years median follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with hypertension without flow-limiting coronary artery disease, impaired MFRsubendo was associated with cardiovascular risk factors, elevated cardiac biomarkers, cardiac structure, and clinical events.
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BACKGROUND: Life-threatening, space-occupying mass effect due to cerebral edema and/or hemorrhagic transformation is an early complication of patients with middle cerebral artery stroke. Little is known about longitudinal trajectories of laboratory and vital signs leading up to radiographic and clinical deterioration related to this mass effect. METHODS: We curated a retrospective data set of 635 patients with large middle cerebral artery stroke totaling 95,463 data points for 10 longitudinal covariates and 40 time-independent covariates. We assessed trajectories of the 10 longitudinal variables during the 72 h preceding three outcomes representative of life-threatening mass effect: midline shift ≥ 5 mm, pineal gland shift (PGS) > 4 mm, and decompressive hemicraniectomy (DHC). We used a "backward-looking" trajectory approach. Patients were aligned based on outcome occurrence time and the trajectory of each variable was assessed before that outcome by accounting for cases and noncases, adjusting for confounders. We evaluated longitudinal trajectories with Cox proportional time-dependent regression. RESULTS: Of 635 patients, 49.0% were female, and the mean age was 69 years. Thirty five percent of patients had midline shift ≥ 5 mm, 24.3% of patients had PGS > 4 mm, and 10.7% of patients underwent DHC. Backward-looking trajectories showed mild increases in white blood cell count (10-11 K/UL within 72 h), temperature (up to half a degree within 24 h), and sodium levels (1-3 mEq/L within 24 h) before the three outcomes of interest. We also observed a decrease in heart rate (75-65 beats per minute) 24 h before DHC. We found a significant association between increased white blood cell count with PGS > 4 mm (hazard ratio 1.05, p value 0.007). CONCLUSIONS: Longitudinal profiling adjusted for confounders demonstrated that white blood cell count, temperature, and sodium levels appear to increase before radiographic and clinical indicators of space-occupying mass effect. These findings will inform the development of multivariable dynamic risk models to aid prediction of life-threatening, space-occupying mass effect.
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BACKGROUND: Observational studies have reported strongly protective effects of bariatric surgery on cardiovascular disease, but with oversimplified definitions of the intervention, eligibility criteria, and follow-up, which deviate from those in a randomized trial. We describe an attempt to estimate the effect of bariatric surgery on cardiovascular disease without introducing these sources of bias, which may not be entirely possible with existing observational data. METHODS: We propose two target trials among persons with diabetes: (1) bariatric operation (vs. no operation) among individuals who have undergone preoperative preparation (lifestyle modifications and screening) and (2) preoperative preparation and a bariatric operation (vs. neither preoperative nor operative component). We emulated both target trials using observational data of US veterans. RESULTS: Comparing bariatric surgery with no surgery (target trial #1; 8,087 individuals), the 7-year cardiovascular risk was 18.0% (95% CI = 6.9, 32.7) in the surgery group and 18.9% (95% CI = 17.7, 20.1) in the no-surgery group (risk difference -0.9, 95% CI = -12.0, 14.0). Comparing preoperative components plus surgery vs. neither (target trial #2; 10,065 individuals), the 7-year cardiovascular risk was 17.4% (95% CI = 13.6, 22.0) in the surgery group and 18.8% (95% CI = 17.8, 19.9) in the no-surgery group (risk difference -1.4, 95% CI = -5.1, 3.2). Body mass index and hemoglobin A1c were reduced with bariatric interventions in both emulations. CONCLUSIONS: Within limitations of available observational data, our estimates do not provide evidence that bariatric surgery reduces cardiovascular disease and support equipoise for a randomized trial of bariatric surgery for cardiovascular disease prevention.
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Cirurgia Bariátrica , Doenças Cardiovasculares , Humanos , Cirurgia Bariátrica/estatística & dados numéricos , Doenças Cardiovasculares/epidemiologia , Doenças Cardiovasculares/prevenção & controle , Feminino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Masculino , Estudos Observacionais como Assunto , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Adulto , Veteranos/estatística & dados numéricos , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2/epidemiologiaRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Step counting is comparable among many research-grade and consumer-grade accelerometers in laboratory settings. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to compare the agreement between Actical and Apple Watch step-counting in a community setting. METHODS: Among Third Generation Framingham Heart Study participants (N=3486), we examined the agreement of step-counting between those who wore a consumer-grade accelerometer (Apple Watch Series 0) and a research-grade accelerometer (Actical) on the same days. Secondarily, we examined the agreement during each hour when both devices were worn to account for differences in wear time between devices. RESULTS: We studied 523 participants (n=3223 person-days, mean age 51.7, SD 8.9 years; women: n=298, 57.0%). Between devices, we observed modest correlation (intraclass correlation [ICC] 0.56, 95% CI 0.54-0.59), poor continuous agreement (29.7%, n=957 of days having steps counts with ≤15% difference), a mean difference of 499 steps per day higher count by Actical, and wide limits of agreement, roughly ±9000 steps per day. However, devices showed stronger agreement in identifying who meets various steps per day thresholds (eg, at 8000 steps per day, kappa coefficient=0.49), for which devices were concordant for 74.8% (n=391) of participants. In secondary analyses, in the hours during which both devices were worn (n=456 participants, n=18,760 person-hours), the correlation was much stronger (ICC 0.86, 95% CI 0.85-0.86), but continuous agreement remained poor (27.3%, n=5115 of hours having step counts with ≤15% difference) between devices and was slightly worse for those with mobility limitations or obesity. CONCLUSIONS: Our investigation suggests poor overall agreement between steps counted by the Actical device and those counted by the Apple Watch device, with stronger agreement in discriminating who meets certain step thresholds. The impact of these challenges may be minimized if accelerometers are used by individuals to determine whether they are meeting physical activity guidelines or tracking step counts. It is also possible that some of the limitations of these older accelerometers may be improved in newer devices.
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Coronary artery disease (CAD) is the leading cause of death among adults worldwide. Accurate risk stratification can support optimal lifetime prevention. Current methods lack the ability to incorporate new information throughout the life course or to combine innate genetic risk factors with acquired lifetime risk. We designed a general multistate model (MSGene) to estimate age-specific transitions across 10 cardiometabolic states, dependent on clinical covariates and a CAD polygenic risk score. This model is designed to handle longitudinal data over the lifetime to address this unmet need and support clinical decision-making. We analyze longitudinal data from 480,638 UK Biobank participants and compared predicted lifetime risk with the 30-year Framingham risk score. MSGene improves discrimination (C-index 0.71 vs 0.66), age of high-risk detection (C-index 0.73 vs 0.52), and overall prediction (RMSE 1.1% vs 10.9%), in held-out data. We also use MSGene to refine estimates of lifetime absolute risk reduction from statin initiation. Our findings underscore our multistate model's potential public health value for accurate lifetime CAD risk estimation using clinical factors and increasingly available genetics toward earlier more effective prevention.
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Doença da Artéria Coronariana , Registros Eletrônicos de Saúde , Humanos , Doença da Artéria Coronariana/genética , Doença da Artéria Coronariana/epidemiologia , Masculino , Feminino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Registros Eletrônicos de Saúde/estatística & dados numéricos , Idoso , Medição de Risco/métodos , Fatores de Risco , Adulto , Predisposição Genética para Doença , Inibidores de Hidroximetilglutaril-CoA Redutases/uso terapêutico , Reino Unido/epidemiologia , Estudos Longitudinais , Herança Multifatorial/genéticaRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Individuals with both atrial fibrillation (AF) and myocardial infarction (MI) have higher mortality compared with individuals with only 1 condition. Whether mortality differs according to the temporal order of AF and MI is unclear. METHODS AND RESULTS: We included participants from the FHS (Framingham Heart Study) from 1960 and onwards. We assessed the hazard ratio (HR) of new-onset AF and MI, and mortality according to MI and AF status (prevalent and interim) using multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards models. Interim diseases were modeled as time-varying variables. For the analysis of new-onset AF, 10 923 participants (55% women; mean±SD age, 54±8 years) were included. For new-onset MI, 10 804 participants (55% women; mean±SD age, 54±8 years) were included. Compared with no MI, the hazard of new-onset AF was higher in participants with prevalent (HR, 1.60 [95% CI, 1.32-1.94]) and interim MI (HR, 3.96 [95% CI, 3.18-4.91]). Both ST-segment-elevation MI and non-ST-segment-elevation MI were associated with new-onset AF. Interim AF, not prevalent AF, was associated with higher hazard rate of new-onset MI (HR, 2.21 [95% CI, 1.67-2.92]). Interim AF was associated with both ST-segment-elevation MI and non-ST-segment-elevation MI. Mortality was significantly greater among participants with AF and MI compared with participants with 1 of the 2, regardless of temporal order. CONCLUSIONS: We report a bidirectional association between AF and MI, which was observed for both non-ST-segment-elevation MI and ST-segment-elevation MI. Participants with both AF and MI had considerably higher mortality compared with participants with only 1 of the 2 conditions, regardless of order.
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Fibrilação Atrial , Humanos , Fibrilação Atrial/mortalidade , Fibrilação Atrial/epidemiologia , Fibrilação Atrial/complicações , Feminino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Masculino , Idoso , Fatores de Risco , Fatores de Tempo , Prevalência , Infarto do Miocárdio com Supradesnível do Segmento ST/mortalidade , Infarto do Miocárdio com Supradesnível do Segmento ST/epidemiologia , Infarto do Miocárdio sem Supradesnível do Segmento ST/mortalidade , Infarto do Miocárdio sem Supradesnível do Segmento ST/diagnóstico , Infarto do Miocárdio sem Supradesnível do Segmento ST/epidemiologia , Medição de Risco/métodos , Infarto do Miocárdio/mortalidade , Infarto do Miocárdio/epidemiologia , Massachusetts/epidemiologia , Modelos de Riscos Proporcionais , PrognósticoRESUMO
Historically, investigators have not differentiated between patients with and without hemorrhagic transformation (HT) in large core ischemic stroke at risk for life-threatening mass effect (LTME) from cerebral edema. Our objective was to determine whether LTME occurs faster in those with HT compared to those without. We conducted a two-center retrospective study of patients with ≥ 1/2 MCA territory infarct between 2006 and 2021. We tested the association of time-to-LTME and HT subtype (parenchymal, petechial) using Cox regression, controlling for age, mean arterial pressure, glucose, tissue plasminogen activator, mechanical thrombectomy, National Institute of Health Stroke Scale, antiplatelets, anticoagulation, temperature, and stroke side. Secondary and exploratory outcomes included mass effect-related death, all-cause death, disposition, and decompressive hemicraniectomy. Of 840 patients, 358 (42.6%) had no HT, 403 (48.0%) patients had petechial HT, and 79 (9.4%) patients had parenchymal HT. LTME occurred in 317 (37.7%) and 100 (11.9%) had mass effect-related deaths. Parenchymal (HR 8.24, 95% CI 5.46-12.42, p < 0.01) and petechial HT (HR 2.47, 95% CI 1.92-3.17, p < 0.01) were significantly associated with time-to-LTME and mass effect-related death. Understanding different risk factors and sequelae of mass effect with and without HT is critical for informed clinical decisions.
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Hospitalização , Infarto da Artéria Cerebral Média , Humanos , Feminino , Masculino , Idoso , Estudos Retrospectivos , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Infarto da Artéria Cerebral Média/complicações , Hemorragia Cerebral/etiologia , Hemorragia Cerebral/mortalidade , Hemorragia Cerebral/complicações , Edema Encefálico/etiologia , Fatores de Risco , AVC Isquêmico/mortalidadeRESUMO
OBJECTIVES: To examine how the lifetime risks of atrial fibrillation and of complications after atrial fibrillation changed over time. DESIGN: Danish, nationwide, population based cohort study. SETTING: Population of Denmark from 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2022. PARTICIPANTS: 3.5 million individuals (51.7% women and 48.3% men) who did not have atrial fibrillation at 45 years of age or older were followed up until incident atrial fibrillation, migration, death, or end of follow-up, whichever came first. All 362 721 individuals with incident atrial fibrillation (46.4% women and 53.6% men), but with no prevalent complication, were further followed up until incident heart failure, stroke, or myocardial infarction. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation and lifetime risks of complications after atrial fibrillation over two prespecified periods (2000-10 v 2011-22). RESULTS: The lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation increased from 24.2% in 2000-10 to 30.9% in 2011-22 (difference 6.7% (95% confidence interval 6.5% to 6.8%)). After atrial fibrillation, the most frequent complication was heart failure with a lifetime risk of 42.9% in 2000-10 and 42.1% in 2011-22 (-0.8% (-3.8% to 2.2%)). Individuals with atrial fibrillation lost 14.4 years with no heart failure. The lifetime risks of stroke and of myocardial infarction after atrial fibrillation decreased slightly between the two periods, from 22.4% to 19.9% for stroke (-2.5% (-4.2% to -0.7%)) and from 13.7% to 9.8% for myocardial infarction (-3.9% (-5.3% to -2.4%). No evidence was reported of a differential decrease between men and women. CONCLUSION: Lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation increased over two decades of follow-up. In individuals with atrial fibrillation, about two in five developed heart failure and one in five had a stroke over their remaining lifetime after atrial fibrillation diagnosis, with no or only small improvement over time. Stroke risks and heart failure prevention strategies are needed for people with atrial fibrillation.
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Fibrilação Atrial , Insuficiência Cardíaca , Infarto do Miocárdio , Acidente Vascular Cerebral , Masculino , Humanos , Feminino , Fibrilação Atrial/diagnóstico , Estudos de Coortes , Fatores de Risco , Incidência , Acidente Vascular Cerebral/epidemiologia , Infarto do Miocárdio/etiologia , Insuficiência Cardíaca/epidemiologia , Dinamarca/epidemiologiaRESUMO
BACKGROUND: The incidence of atrial fibrillation (AF) shows substantial temporal trends, but the contribution of birth cohort effects is unknown. These effects refer to the relationship between birth year and the likelihood of developing AF. We aimed to assess trends in cumulative incidence of diagnosed AF across birth cohorts and to disentangle the effects of age, birth cohort and calendar period by using age-period-cohort analyses. METHODS: In a Danish nationwide population-based cohort study, 4.7 million individuals were selected at a given index age (45, 55, 65 and 75 years) free of AF and followed up for diagnosed AF. For each index age, we assessed trends in 10-year cumulative incidence of AF across six 5-year birth cohorts. An age-period-cohort model was estimated using Poisson regression with constrained spline functions collapsing data into 1-year intervals across ages and calendar years. RESULTS: Cumulative incidence of AF diagnosis increased across birth cohorts for all index ages (ptrend<0.001). Compared with the first birth cohort, the diagnosed AF incidence rate ratio in the last birth cohort was 3.0 (95% CI 2.9 to 3.2) for index age 45 years, 2.9 (2.8 to 3.0) for 55 years, 2.8 (2.7 to 2.8) for 65 years and 2.7 (2.6 to 2.7) for 75 years. Age-period-cohort analyses showed substantial birth cohort effects independent of age, with no clear period effect. Compared with individuals born in 1930, the diagnosed AF incidence rate was 0.125 smaller among individuals born in 1885 and was four times larger among individuals born in 1975. CONCLUSION: Substantial birth cohort effects, independent of age and calendar period, influence trends in diagnosed AF incidence.
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Fibrilação Atrial , Humanos , Fibrilação Atrial/epidemiologia , Fibrilação Atrial/diagnóstico , Incidência , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Feminino , Masculino , Dinamarca/epidemiologia , Idoso , Coorte de Nascimento , Efeito de Coortes , Fatores Etários , Fatores de Tempo , Sistema de Registros , Fatores de RiscoRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Advanced chronic kidney disease is associated with high cardiovascular risk, even after kidney transplant. Pretransplant cardiac testing may identify patients who require additional assessment before transplant or would benefit from risk optimization. The objective of the current study was to determine the relative prognostic utility of pretransplant positron emission tomography (PET) and single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI) for posttransplant major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs). METHODS: We retrospectively followed patients who underwent MPI before kidney transplant for the occurrence of MACE after transplant including myocardial infarction, stroke, heart failure, and cardiac death. An abnormal MPI result was defined as a total perfusion deficit >5% of the myocardium. To determine associations of MPI results with MACE, we utilized Cox hazard regression with propensity weighting for PET versus SPECT with model factors, including demographics and cardiovascular risk factors. RESULTS: A total of 393 patients underwent MPI (208 PET and 185 SPECT) and were followed for a median of 5.9 years post-transplant. Most were male (58%), median age was 58 years, and there was a high burden of hypertension (88%) and diabetes (33%). A minority had abnormal MPI (n=58, 15%). In propensity-weighted hazard regression, abnormal PET result was associated with posttransplant MACE (hazard ratio, 3.02 [95% CI, 1.78-5.11]; P<0.001), while there was insufficient evidence of an association of abnormal SPECT result with MACE (1.39 [95% CI, 0.72-2.66]; P=0.33). The explained relative risk of the PET result was higher than the SPECT result (R2 0.086 versus 0.007). Normal PET was associated with the lowest risk of MACE (2.2%/year versus 3.6%/year for normal SPECT; P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Kidney transplant recipients are at high cardiovascular risk, despite a minority having obstructive coronary artery disease on MPI. PET MPI findings predict posttransplant MACE. Normal PET may better discriminate lower risk patients compared with normal SPECT, which should be confirmed in a larger prospective study.
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Doença da Artéria Coronariana , Transplante de Rim , Imagem de Perfusão do Miocárdio , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Feminino , Estudos Prospectivos , Estudos Retrospectivos , Transplante de Rim/efeitos adversos , Imagem de Perfusão do Miocárdio/métodos , Tomografia Computadorizada de Emissão de Fóton Único/métodos , Tomografia por Emissão de Pósitrons , PrognósticoRESUMO
Most prior studies on the prognostic significance of newly-diagnosed atrial fibrillation (AF) in COVID-19 did not differentiate newly-diagnosed AF from pre-existing AF. To determine the association between newly-diagnosed AF and in-hospital and 30-day mortality among regular users of Veterans Health Administration using data linked to Medicare. We identified Veterans aged ≥ 65 years who were hospitalized for ≥ 24 h with COVID-19 from 06/01/2020 to 1/31/2022 and had ≥ 2 primary care visits within 24 months prior to the index hospitalization. We performed multivariable logistic regression analyses to estimate adjusted risks, risk differences (RD), and odds ratios (OR) for the association between newly-diagnosed AF and the mortality outcomes adjusting for patient demographics, baseline comorbidities, and presence of acute organ dysfunction on admission. Of 23,299 patients in the study cohort, 5.3% had newly-diagnosed AF, and 29.2% had pre-existing AF. In newly-diagnosed AF adjusted in-hospital and 30-day mortality were 16.5% and 22.7%, respectively. Newly-diagnosed AF was associated with increased mortality compared to pre-existing AF (in-hospital: OR 2.02, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.72-2.37; RD 7.58%, 95% CI 5.54-9.62) (30-day: OR 1.86; 95% CI 1.60-2.16; RD 9.04%, 95% CI 6.61-11.5) or no AF (in-hospital: OR 2.24, 95% CI 1.93-2.60; RD 8.40%, 95% CI 6.44-10.4) (30-day: 2.07, 95% CI 1.80-2.37; RD 10.2%, 95% CI 7.89-12.6). There was a smaller association between pre-existing AF and the mortality outcomes. Newly-diagnosed AF is an important prognostic marker for patients hospitalized with COVID-19. Whether prevention or treatment of AF improves clinical outcomes in these patients remains unknown.
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Fibrilação Atrial , COVID-19 , Veteranos , Idoso , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Humanos , Fibrilação Atrial/diagnóstico , Fibrilação Atrial/epidemiologia , Prognóstico , Incidência , COVID-19/epidemiologia , MedicareRESUMO
When comparing the performance of two or more competing tests, simulation studies commonly focus on statistical power. However, if the size of the tests being compared are either different from one another or from the nominal size, comparing tests based on power alone may be misleading. By analogy with diagnostic accuracy studies, we introduce relative positive and negative likelihood ratios to factor in both power and size in the comparison of multiple tests. We derive sample size formulas for a comparative simulation study. As an example, we compared the performance of six statistical tests for small-study effects in meta-analyses of randomized controlled trials: Begg's rank correlation, Egger's regression, Schwarzer's method for sparse data, the trim-and-fill method, the arcsine-Thompson test, and Lin and Chu's combined test. We illustrate that comparing power alone, or power adjusted or penalized for size, can be misleading, and how the proposed likelihood ratio approach enables accurate comparison of the trade-off between power and size between competing tests.
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Viés de Publicação , Simulação por Computador , Tamanho da AmostraRESUMO
Background: Life-threatening, space-occupying mass effect due to cerebral edema and/or hemorrhagic transformation is an early complication of patients with middle cerebral artery (MCA) stroke. Little is known about longitudinal trajectories of laboratory and vital signs leading up to radiographic and clinical deterioration related to this mass effect. Methods: We curated a granular retrospective dataset of 635 patients with large middle cerebral artery (MCA) stroke totaling 108,547 data points for repeated measurements of 10 covariates, and 40 time-independent covariates. We assessed longitudinal trajectories of the 10 longitudinal variables during the 72 hours preceding three outcomes representative of life-threatening mass effect: midline shift (MLS) ≥5mm, pineal gland shift (PGS) >4mm, and decompressive hemicraniectomy (DHC). We used a "backward looking" trajectory approach. Patients were aligned according to the time of outcome occurrence and the trajectory of each variable was assessed prior to that outcome by accounting for both cases and non-cases. Results: Of 635 patients, 49% were female, and mean age was 69 years. Thirty five percent of patients had MLS ≥ 5mm, 24.1% had PGS >4mm, and DHC occurred in 10.7%. For the three outcomes of interest, backward-looking trajectories showed mild increases in white blood cell count (10 up to 11 K/UL within 72 hours), temperature (up to half a degree within 24 hours), and sodium (1-3 mEq/L within 24 hours) leading up to outcomes. We also observed a decrease in heart rate (75 - 65 beats per minute) 24 hours prior to DHC. Conclusions: Univariable longitudinal profiling showed that temperature, white blood cell count, and sodium increase prior to radiographic and clinical indicators of space-occupying mass effect. These findings will inform development of multivariable dynamic risk models to aid prediction of life-threatening space-occupying mass effect.
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Background/Objective: Despite the intuitive attractiveness of bringing research to participants rather than making them come to central study sites, widespread decentralized enrollment has not been common in clinical trials. Methods: The need for clinical research in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, along with innovations in technology, led us to use a decentralized trial approach in our Phase 2 COVID-19 trial. We used real-time acquisition and transmission of health-related data using home-based monitoring devices and mobile applications to assess outcomes. This approach not only avoids spreading COVID-19 but it also can support inclusion of participants in more diverse socioeconomic circumstances and in rural settings. Results: Our team developed and deployed a decentralized trial platform to support patient engagement and adverse event reporting. Clinicians, engineers, and informaticians on our research team developed a Clinical-Trial-in-a-Box tool to optimally collect and analyze data from multiple decentralized platforms. Conclusion: Applying the decentralized model in Long COVID, using digital health technology and personal devices integrated with our telehealth platform, we share the lessons learned from our work, along with challenges and future possibilities.
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OBJECTIVE: Electrode patch position may not be critical for success when cardioverting atrial fibrillation (AF), but the relevance of applied electrical energy is unclarified. Our objective was to perform a meta-analysis of randomised trials to examine the dose-response relation between energy level and cardioversion success by electrode position in elective cardioversion. METHODS: We searched PubMed, Embase, The Cochrane Library, Google Scholar and Scopus Citations. Inclusion criteria were randomised controlled trials using biphasic shock waves and self-adhesive patches, and publication date from 2000 to 2023. We used random-effects dose-response models to meta-analyse the relation between energy level and cardioversion success by anterolateral and anteroposterior position. Random-effects models estimated pooled risk ratios (RR) for cardioversion success after the first and the final shocks between the two electrode positions. RESULTS: We included five randomised controlled trials (N=1078). After the first low-energy shock, the electrode position was not significantly associated with the likelihood of successful cardioversion (pooled RR anterolateral vs anteroposterior placement 1.28, 95% CI 0.93 to 1.76, with considerable heterogeneity). After a high-energy final shock, there was no evidence of an association between the electrode position and the cumulative chance of cardioversion success (pooled RR anterolateral vs anteroposterior 1.05, 95% CI 0.97 to 1.14). Regardless of electrode position, cardioversion success was significantly less likely with shock energy levels < 200J compared with 200J. CONCLUSION: Evidence from contemporary randomised trials suggests that higher level of electrical energy is associated with higher conversion rate when cardioverting AF with a biphasic shockwave. Positioning of electrodes can be based on convenience.
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Fibrilação Atrial , Humanos , Fibrilação Atrial/diagnóstico , Fibrilação Atrial/terapia , Cardioversão Elétrica/efeitos adversos , EletrodosRESUMO
Currently, coronary artery disease (CAD) is the leading cause of death among adults worldwide. Accurate risk stratification can support optimal lifetime prevention. We designed a novel and general multistate model (MSGene) to estimate age-specific transitions across 10 cardiometabolic states, dependent on clinical covariates and a CAD polygenic risk score. MSGene supports decision making about CAD prevention related to any of these states. We analyzed longitudinal data from 480,638 UK Biobank participants and compared predicted lifetime risk with the 30-year Framingham risk score. MSGene improved discrimination (C-index 0.71 vs 0.66), age of high-risk detection (C-index 0.73 vs 0.52), and overall prediction (RMSE 1.1% vs 10.9%), with external validation. We also used MSGene to refine estimates of lifetime absolute risk reduction from statin initiation. Our findings underscore the potential public health value of our novel multistate model for accurate lifetime CAD risk estimation using clinical factors and increasingly available genetics.
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Introduction: Ideally, real-world data (RWD) collected to generate real-world evidence (RWE) should lead to impact on the care and health of real-world patients. Deriving from care in which clinicians and patients try various treatments to inform therapeutic decisions, N-of-1 trials bring scientific methods to real-world practice. Methods: These single-patient crossover trials generate RWD and RWE by giving individual patients various treatments in a double-blinded way in sequential periods to determine the most effective treatment for a given patient. Results: This approach is most often used for patients with chronic, relatively stable conditions that provide the opportunity to make comparisons over multiple treatment periods, termed Type 1 N-of-1 trials. These are most helpful when there is heterogeneity of treatment effects among patients and no a priori best option. N-of-1 trials also can be done for patients with rare diseases, potentially testing only one treatment, to generate evidence for personalized treatment decisions, designated as Type 2 N-of-1 trials. With both types, in addition to informing individual's treatments, when uniform protocols are used for multiple patients with the same condition, the data collected in the individual N-of-1 trials can be aggregated to provide RWD/RWE to inform more general use of the treatments. Thereby, N-of-1 trials can provide RWE for the care of individuals and for populations. Conclusions: To fulfill this potential, we believe N-of-1 trials should be built into our current healthcare ecosystem. To this end, we are building the needed infrastructure and engaging the stakeholders who should receive value from this approach.
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OBJECTIVES: Improving the targeted use of drug regimens requires robust real-world evidence (RWE) to address the uncertainties that remain regarding their real-world performance following market entry. However, challenges in the current state of RWE production limit its impact on clinical decisions, as well as its operational scalability and sustainability. We propose an adaptive point-of-care (APoC) platform trial as an approach to RWE production that improves both clinical and operational efficiencies. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We explored design innovations, operational challenges, and infrastructure needs within a multi-stakeholder consortium to evaluate the potential of an APoC platform trial for studying chronic disease treatment regimens using rheumatoid arthritis as a case study. The concept integrates elements from adaptive clinical trials (dynamic treatment regimen strategies) and point-of-care trials (research embedded into routine clinical care) under a perpetual platform infrastructure. The necessary components to implement an APoC platform trial within outpatient settings exist, and present an opportunity for a cross-disciplinary, multi-stakeholder approach. Effective engagement of key stakeholders involved in and impacted by the platform is critical to success. Our collaborative design process identified three high-impact stakeholder-engagement areas: (1) focus on research question(s), (2) design and implementation planning such that it is feasible and fit-for-purpose, and (3) measurement, or meaningful metrics for both clinical (patient outcomes) and system (operational efficiencies) impact. CONCLUSIONS: An APoC platform trial for rheumatoid arthritis integrating innovative design elements in a scalable infrastructure has the potential to reduce important uncertainties about the real-world performance of biomedical innovations and improve clinical decisions.
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Importance: Genomic testing in infancy guides medical decisions and can improve health outcomes. However, it is unclear whether genomic sequencing or a targeted neonatal gene-sequencing test provides comparable molecular diagnostic yields and times to return of results. Objective: To compare outcomes of genomic sequencing with those of a targeted neonatal gene-sequencing test. Design, Setting, and Participants: The Genomic Medicine for Ill Neonates and Infants (GEMINI) study was a prospective, comparative, multicenter study of 400 hospitalized infants younger than 1 year of age (proband) and their parents, when available, suspected of having a genetic disorder. The study was conducted at 6 US hospitals from June 2019 to November 2021. Exposure: Enrolled participants underwent simultaneous testing with genomic sequencing and a targeted neonatal gene-sequencing test. Each laboratory performed an independent interpretation of variants guided by knowledge of the patient's phenotype and returned results to the clinical care team. Change in clinical management, therapies offered, and redirection of care was provided to families based on genetic findings from either platform. Main Outcomes and Measures: Primary end points were molecular diagnostic yield (participants with ≥1 pathogenic variant or variant of unknown significance), time to return of results, and clinical utility (changes in patient care). Results: A molecular diagnostic variant was identified in 51% of participants (n = 204; 297 variants identified with 134 being novel). Molecular diagnostic yield of genomic sequencing was 49% (95% CI, 44%-54%) vs 27% (95% CI, 23%-32%) with the targeted gene-sequencing test. Genomic sequencing did not report 19 variants found by the targeted neonatal gene-sequencing test; the targeted gene-sequencing test did not report 164 variants identified by genomic sequencing as diagnostic. Variants unidentified by the targeted genomic-sequencing test included structural variants longer than 1 kilobase (25.1%) and genes excluded from the test (24.6%) (McNemar odds ratio, 8.6 [95% CI, 5.4-14.7]). Variant interpretation by laboratories differed by 43%. Median time to return of results was 6.1 days for genomic sequencing and 4.2 days for the targeted genomic-sequencing test; for urgent cases (n = 107) the time was 3.3 days for genomic sequencing and 4.0 days for the targeted gene-sequencing test. Changes in clinical care affected 19% of participants, and 76% of clinicians viewed genomic testing as useful or very useful in clinical decision-making, irrespective of a diagnosis. Conclusions and Relevance: The molecular diagnostic yield for genomic sequencing was higher than a targeted neonatal gene-sequencing test, but the time to return of routine results was slower. Interlaboratory variant interpretation contributes to differences in molecular diagnostic yield and may have important consequences for clinical management.