Increased Heart Rate Fragmentation in Those with Williams-Beuren Syndrome Suggests Non-autonomic Mechanistic Contributors to Sudden Death Risk.

Williams-Beuren Syndrome (WBS) is a rare genetic condition caused by a chromosomal microdeletion at 7q11.23. It is a multi-system disorder characterized by distinct facies, intellectual disability, and supravalvar aortic stenosis. Those with WBS are at increased risk of sudden death, but mechanisms underlying this remain poorly understood. We recently demonstrated autonomic abnormalities in those with WBS that are associated with increased susceptibility to arrhythmia and sudden cardiac death (SCD) risk. A recently introduced method for HRV analysis called 'heart rate fragmentation' (HRF) correlates with adverse cardiovascular events and death in studies where HRV failed to identify high-risk subjects. Some argue that HRF quantifies non-autonomic cardiovascular modulators. We, therefore, sought to apply HRF analysis to a WBS cohort to: 1) determine if those with WBS show differences in HRF compared to healthy controls and 2) determine if HRF correlates with traditional HRV measures in those with WBS. Similar to studies of those with CAD and atherosclerosis, we found significantly higher HRF in those with WBS compared to healthy controls. In general, HRF shows minimal correlation with traditional HRV metrics, suggesting that HRF may quantify some non-autonomic modulators of sudden death risk in those with WBS. We also introduce a new metric inspired by the HRF methodology, Significant Acute Rate Drop (SARD), which may permit vagal activity detection more directly. HRF and SARD increase the ability of non-invasive HRV measures to identify those at greatest risk for sudden cardiac death both in those with WBS as well as populations more broadly.

Comparison of Bayesian and frequentist monitoring boundaries motivated by the Multiplatform Randomized Clinical Trial.

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic highlighted the need to conduct efficient randomized clinical trials with interim monitoring guidelines for efficacy and futility. Several randomized coronavirus disease 2019 trials, including the Multiplatform Randomized Clinical Trial (mpRCT), used Bayesian guidelines with the belief that they would lead to quicker efficacy or futility decisions than traditional "frequentist" guidelines, such as spending functions and conditional power. We explore this belief using an intuitive interpretation of Bayesian methods as translating prior opinion about the treatment effect into imaginary prior data. These imaginary observations are then combined with actual observations from the trial to make conclusions. Using this approach, we show that the Bayesian efficacy boundary used in mpRCT is actually quite similar to the frequentist Pocock boundary. METHODS: The mpRCT's efficacy monitoring guideline considered stopping if, given the observed data, there was greater than 99% probability that the treatment was effective (odds ratio greater than 1). The mpRCT's futility monitoring guideline considered stopping if, given the observed data, there was greater than 95% probability that the treatment was less than 20% effective (odds ratio less than 1.2). The mpRCT used a normal prior distribution that can be thought of as supplementing the actual patients' data with imaginary patients' data. We explore the effects of varying probability thresholds and the prior-to-actual patient ratio in the mpRCT and compare the resulting Bayesian efficacy monitoring guidelines to the well-known frequentist Pocock and O'Brien-Fleming efficacy guidelines. We also contrast Bayesian futility guidelines with a more traditional 20% conditional power futility guideline. RESULTS: A Bayesian efficacy and futility monitoring boundary using a neutral, weakly informative prior distribution and a fixed probability threshold at all interim analyses is more aggressive than the commonly used O'Brien-Fleming efficacy boundary coupled with a 20% conditional power threshold for futility. The trade-off is that more aggressive boundaries tend to stop trials earlier, but incur a loss of power. Interestingly, the Bayesian efficacy boundary with 99% probability threshold is very similar to the classic Pocock efficacy boundary. CONCLUSIONS: In a pandemic where quickly weeding out ineffective treatments and identifying effective treatments is paramount, aggressive monitoring may be preferred to conservative approaches, such as the O'Brien-Fleming boundary. This can be accomplished with either Bayesian or frequentist methods.

Use of win time for ordered composite endpoints in clinical trials.

Consider the choice of outcome for overall treatment benefit in a clinical trial which measures the first time to each of several clinical events. We describe several new variants of the win ratio that incorporate the time spent in each clinical state over the common follow-up, where clinical state means the worst clinical event that has occurred by that time. One version allows restriction so that death during follow-up is most important, while time spent in other clinical states is still accounted for. Three other variants are described; one is based on the average pairwise win time, one creates a continuous outcome for each participant based on expected win times against a reference distribution and another that uses the estimated distributions of clinical state to compare the treatment arms. Finally, a combination testing approach is described to give robust power for detecting treatment benefit across a broad range of alternatives. These new methods are designed to be closer to the overall treatment benefit/harm from a patient's perspective, compared to the ordinary win ratio. The new methods are compared to the composite event approach and the ordinary win ratio. Simulations show that when overall treatment benefit on death is substantial, the variants based on either the participants' expected win times (EWTs) against a reference distribution or estimated clinical state distributions have substantially higher power than either the pairwise comparison or composite event methods. The methods are illustrated by re-analysis of the trial heart failure: a controlled trial investigating outcomes of exercise training.

Oxytocin is not associated with postpartum hemorrhage in labor augmentation in a retrospective cohort study in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies reported conflicting results on the relationship between oxytocin use for labor augmentation and the risk of postpartum hemorrhage, probably because it is rather challenging to disentangle oxytocin use from labor dystocia. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to investigate the independent association between oxytocin use for augmentation and the risk of postpartum hemorrhage by using advanced statistical modeling to control for labor patterns and other covariates. STUDY DESIGN: We used data from 20,899 term, cephalic, singleton pregnancies of patients with spontaneous onset of labor and no previous cesarean delivery from Intermountain Healthcare in Utah in the Consortium on Safe Labor. Presence of postpartum hemorrhage was identified on the basis of a clinical diagnosis. Propensity scores were calculated using a generalized linear mixed model for oxytocin use for augmentation, and covariate balancing generalized propensity score was applied to obtain propensity scores for the duration and total dosage of oxytocin augmentation. A weighted generalized additive mixed model was used to depict dose-response curves between the duration and total dosage of oxytocin augmentation and the outcomes. The average treatment effects of oxytocin use for augmentation on postpartum hemorrhage and estimated blood loss (mL) were assessed by inverse probability weighting of propensity scores. RESULTS: The odds of both postpartum hemorrhage and estimated blood loss increased modestly when the duration and/or total dosage of oxytocin used for augmentation increased. However, in comparison with women for whom oxytocin was not used, oxytocin augmentation was not clinically or statistically significantly associated with estimated blood loss (6.5 mL; 95% confidence interval, 2.5-10.3) or postpartum hemorrhage (adjusted odds ratio, 1.02; 95% confidence interval, 0.82-1.24) when rigorously controlling for labor pattern and potential confounders. The results remained consistent regardless of inclusion of women with an intrapartum cesarean delivery. CONCLUSION: The odds of postpartum hemorrhage and estimated blood loss increased modestly with increasing duration and total dosage of oxytocin augmentation. However, in comparison with women for whom oxytocin was not used and after controlling for potential confounders, there was no clinically significant association between oxytocin use for augmentation and estimated blood loss or the risk of postpartum hemorrhage.

A prospective natural history study of post acute sequalae of COVID-19 using digital wearables: Study protocol.

Background: Post-acute sequelae of COVID-19 (PASC) is characterized by having 1 + persistent, recurrent, or emergent symptoms post the infection's acute phase. The duration and symptom manifestation of PASC remain understudied in nonhospitalized patients. Literature on PASC is primarily based on data from hospitalized patients where clinical indicators such as respiratory rate, heart rate, and oxygen saturation have been predictive of disease trajectories. Digital wearables allow for a continuous collection of such physiological parameters. This protocol outlines the design, aim, and procedures of a natural history study of PASC using digital wearables. Methods: This is a single-arm, prospective, natural history study of a cohort of 550 patients, ages 18 to 65 years old, males or females who own a smartphone and/or a tablet that meets pre-determined Bluetooth version and operating system requirements, speak English, and provide documentation of a positive COVID-19 test issued by a healthcare professional or organization within 5 days before enrollment. The study aims to identify wearables collected physiological parameters that are associated with PASC in patients with a positive diagnosis. The primary endpoint is long COVID-19, defined as ≥ 1 symptom at 3 weeks beyond first symptom onset or positive diagnosis, whichever comes first. The secondary endpoint is chronic COVID-19, defined as ≥ 1 symptom at 12 weeks beyond first symptom onset or positive diagnosis. We hypothesize that physiological parameters collected via wearables are associated with self-reported PASC. Participants must be willing and able to consent to participate in the study and adhere to study procedures for six months. Discussion: This is a fully decentralized study investigating PASC using wearable devices to collect physiological parameters and patient-reported outcomes. Given evidence on key demographics and risk profiles associated with PASC, the study will shed light on the duration and symptom manifestation of PASC in nonhospitalized patient subgroups and is an exemplar of use of wearables as population-level monitoring health tools for communicable diseases. Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04927442.

New insights on labor progression: a systematic review.

The past 20 years witnessed an invigoration of research on labor progression and a change of thinking regarding normal labor. New evidence is emerging, and more advanced statistical methods are applied to labor progression analyses. Given the wide variations in the onset of active labor and the pattern of labor progression, there is an emerging consensus that the definition of abnormal labor may not be related to an idealized or average labor curve. Alternative approaches to guide labor management have been proposed; for example, using an upper limit of a distribution of labor duration to define abnormally slow labor. Nonetheless, the methods of labor assessment are still primitive and subject to error; more objective measures and more advanced instruments are needed to identify the onset of active labor, monitor labor progression, and define when labor duration is associated with maternal/child risk. Cervical dilation alone may be insufficient to define active labor, and incorporating more physical and biochemical measures may improve accuracy of diagnosing active labor onset and progression. Because the association between duration of labor and perinatal outcomes is rather complex and influenced by various underlying and iatrogenic conditions, future research must carefully explore how to integrate statistical cut-points with clinical outcomes to reach a practical definition of labor abnormalities. Finally, research regarding the complex labor process may benefit from new approaches, such as machine learning technologies and artificial intelligence to improve the predictability of successful vaginal delivery with normal perinatal outcomes.

Cardiorespiratory Monitoring Data to Predict Respiratory Outcomes in Extremely Preterm Infants.

Rationale: Immature control of breathing is associated with apnea, periodic breathing, intermittent hypoxemia, and bradycardia in extremely preterm infants. However, it is not clear if such events independently predict worse respiratory outcome. Objectives: To determine if analysis of cardiorespiratory monitoring data can predict unfavorable respiratory outcomes at 40 weeks postmenstrual age (PMA) and other outcomes, such as bronchopulmonary dysplasia at 36 weeks PMA. Methods: The Prematurity-related Ventilatory Control (Pre-Vent) study was an observational multicenter prospective cohort study including infants born at <29 weeks of gestation with continuous cardiorespiratory monitoring. The primary outcome was either "favorable" (alive and previously discharged or inpatient and off respiratory medications/O2/support at 40 wk PMA) or "unfavorable" (either deceased or inpatient/previously discharged on respiratory medications/O2/support at 40 wk PMA). Measurements and Main Results: A total of 717 infants were evaluated (median birth weight, 850 g; gestation, 26.4 wk), 53.7% of whom had a favorable outcome and 46.3% of whom had an unfavorable outcome. Physiologic data predicted unfavorable outcome, with accuracy improving with advancing age (area under the curve, 0.79 at Day 7, 0.85 at Day 28 and 32 wk PMA). The physiologic variable that contributed most to prediction was intermittent hypoxemia with oxygen saturation as measured by pulse oximetry <90%. Models with clinical data alone or combining physiologic and clinical data also had good accuracy, with areas under the curve of 0.84-0.85 at Days 7 and 14 and 0.86-0.88 at Day 28 and 32 weeks PMA. Intermittent hypoxemia with oxygen saturation as measured by pulse oximetry <80% was the major physiologic predictor of severe bronchopulmonary dysplasia and death or mechanical ventilation at 40 weeks PMA. Conclusions: Physiologic data are independently associated with unfavorable respiratory outcome in extremely preterm infants.

Renin-Angiotensin System Modulation With Synthetic Angiotensin (1-7) and Angiotensin II Type 1 Receptor-Biased Ligand in Adults With COVID-19: Two Randomized Clinical Trials.

Importance: Preclinical models suggest dysregulation of the renin-angiotensin system (RAS) caused by SARS-CoV-2 infection may increase the relative activity of angiotensin II compared with angiotensin (1-7) and may be an important contributor to COVID-19 pathophysiology. Objective: To evaluate the efficacy and safety of RAS modulation using 2 investigational RAS agents, TXA-127 (synthetic angiotensin [1-7]) and TRV-027 (an angiotensin II type 1 receptor-biased ligand), that are hypothesized to potentiate the action of angiotensin (1-7) and mitigate the action of the angiotensin II. Design, Setting, and Participants: Two randomized clinical trials including adults hospitalized with acute COVID-19 and new-onset hypoxemia were conducted at 35 sites in the US between July 22, 2021, and April 20, 2022; last follow-up visit: July 26, 2022. Interventions: A 0.5-mg/kg intravenous infusion of TXA-127 once daily for 5 days or placebo. A 12-mg/h continuous intravenous infusion of TRV-027 for 5 days or placebo. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was oxygen-free days, an ordinal outcome that classifies a patient's status at day 28 based on mortality and duration of supplemental oxygen use; an adjusted odds ratio (OR) greater than 1.0 indicated superiority of the RAS agent vs placebo. A key secondary outcome was 28-day all-cause mortality. Safety outcomes included allergic reaction, new kidney replacement therapy, and hypotension. Results: Both trials met prespecified early stopping criteria for a low probability of efficacy. Of 343 patients in the TXA-127 trial (226 [65.9%] aged 31-64 years, 200 [58.3%] men, 225 [65.6%] White, and 274 [79.9%] not Hispanic), 170 received TXA-127 and 173 received placebo. Of 290 patients in the TRV-027 trial (199 [68.6%] aged 31-64 years, 168 [57.9%] men, 195 [67.2%] White, and 225 [77.6%] not Hispanic), 145 received TRV-027 and 145 received placebo. Compared with placebo, both TXA-127 (unadjusted mean difference, -2.3 [95% CrI, -4.8 to 0.2]; adjusted OR, 0.88 [95% CrI, 0.59 to 1.30]) and TRV-027 (unadjusted mean difference, -2.4 [95% CrI, -5.1 to 0.3]; adjusted OR, 0.74 [95% CrI, 0.48 to 1.13]) resulted in no difference in oxygen-free days. In the TXA-127 trial, 28-day all-cause mortality occurred in 22 of 163 patients (13.5%) in the TXA-127 group vs 22 of 166 patients (13.3%) in the placebo group (adjusted OR, 0.83 [95% CrI, 0.41 to 1.66]). In the TRV-027 trial, 28-day all-cause mortality occurred in 29 of 141 patients (20.6%) in the TRV-027 group vs 18 of 140 patients (12.9%) in the placebo group (adjusted OR, 1.52 [95% CrI, 0.75 to 3.08]). The frequency of the safety outcomes was similar with either TXA-127 or TRV-027 vs placebo. Conclusions and Relevance: In adults with severe COVID-19, RAS modulation (TXA-127 or TRV-027) did not improve oxygen-free days vs placebo. These results do not support the hypotheses that pharmacological interventions that selectively block the angiotensin II type 1 receptor or increase angiotensin (1-7) improve outcomes for patients with severe COVID-19. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04924660.

Evaluating treatment effects in group sequential multivariate longitudinal studies with covariate adjustment.

Jeffries et al. (2018) investigated testing for a treatment difference in the setting of a randomized clinical trial with a single outcome measured longitudinally over a series of common follow-up times while adjusting for covariates. That paper examined the null hypothesis of no difference at any follow-up time versus the alternative of a difference for at least one follow-up time. We extend those results here by considering multivariate outcome measurements, where each individual outcome is examined at common follow-up times. We consider the case where there is interest in first testing for a treatment difference in a global function of the outcomes (e.g., weighted average or sum) with subsequent interest in examining the individual outcomes, should the global function show a treatment difference. Testing is conducted for each follow-up time and may be performed in the setting of a group sequential trial. Testing procedures are developed to determine follow-up times for which a global treatment difference exists and which individual combinations of outcome and follow-up time show evidence of a difference while controlling for multiplicity in outcomes, follow-up, and interim analyses. These approaches are examined in a study evaluating the effects of tissue plasminogen activator on longitudinally obtained stroke severity measurements.

Implementation Research at NHLBI: Methodological and Design Challenges and Lessons Learned from the DECIPHeR Initiative.

NHLBI funded seven projects as part of the Disparities Elimination through Coordinated Interventions to Prevent and Control Heart and Lung Disease Risk (DECIPHeR) Initiative. They were expected to collaborate with community partners to (1) employ validated theoretical or conceptual implementation research frameworks, (2) include implementation research study designs, (3) include implementation measures as primary outcomes, and (4) inform our understanding of mediators and mechanisms of action of the implementation strategy. Several projects focused on late-stage implementation strategies that optimally and sustainably delivered two or more evidence-based multilevel interventions to reduce or eliminate cardiovascular and/or pulmonary health disparities and to improve population health in high-burden communities. Projects that were successful in the three-year planning phase transitioned to a 4-year execution phase. NHLBI formed a Technical Assistance Workgroup during the planning phase to help awardees refine study aims, strengthen research designs, detail analytic plans, and to use valid sample size methods. This paper highlights methodological and study design challenges encountered during this process. Important lessons learned included (1) the need for greater emphasis on implementation outcomes, (2) the need to clearly distinguish between intervention and implementation strategies in the protocol, (3) the need to address clustering due to randomization of groups or clusters, (4) the need to address the cross-classification that results when intervention agents work across multiple units of randomization in the same arm, (5) the need to accommodate time-varying intervention effects in stepped-wedge designs, and (6) the need for data-based estimates of the parameters required for sample size estimation.

Oxygen-Free Days as an Outcome Measure in Clinical Trials of Therapies for COVID-19 and Other Causes of New-Onset Hypoxemia.

Mortality historically has been the primary outcome of choice for acute and critical care clinical trials. However, undue reliance on mortality can limit the scope of trials that can be performed. Large sample sizes are usually needed for trials powered for a mortality outcome, and focusing solely on mortality fails to recognize the importance that reducing morbidity can have on patients' lives. The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the need for rapid, efficient trials to rigorously evaluate new therapies for hospitalized patients with acute lung injury. Oxygen-free days (OFDs) is a novel outcome for clinical trials that is a composite of mortality and duration of new supplemental oxygen use. It is designed to characterize recovery from acute lung injury in populations with a high prevalence of new hypoxemia and supplemental oxygen use. In these populations, OFDs captures two patient-centered consequences of acute lung injury: mortality and hypoxemic lung dysfunction. Power to detect differences in OFDs typically is greater than that for other clinical trial outcomes, such as mortality and ventilator-free days. OFDs is the primary outcome for the Fourth Accelerating COVID-19 Therapeutic Interventions and Vaccines (ACTIV-4) Host Tissue platform, which evaluates novel therapies targeting the host response to COVID-19 among adults hospitalized with COVID-19 and new hypoxemia. This article outlines the rationale for use of OFDs as an outcome for clinical trials, proposes a standardized method for defining and analyzing OFDs, and provides a framework for sample size calculations using the OFD outcome.

Event-specific win ratios for inference with terminal and non-terminal events.

For semi-competing risks data involving a non-terminal event and a terminal event we derive the asymptotic distributions of the event-specific win ratios under proportional hazards (PH) assumptions for the relevant cause-specific hazard functions of the non-terminal and terminal event, respectively. The win ratios converge to the respective hazard ratios under the PH assumptions and therefore are censoring-free, whether or not the censoring distributions in the two treatment arms are the same. With the asymptotic bivariate normal distributions of the win ratios, confidence intervals and testing procedures are obtained. Through extensive simulation studies and data analysis, we identified proper transformations of the win ratios that yield good control of the type one error rate for various testing procedures while maintaining competitive power. The confidence intervals also have good coverage probabilities. Furthermore, a test for the PH assumptions and a test of equal hazard ratios are developed. The new procedures are illustrated in the clinical trial Aldosterone Antagonist Therapy for Adults With Heart Failure and Preserved Systolic Function, which evaluated the effects of spironolactone in patients with heart failure and a preserved left ventricular ejection fraction.

Joint testing of overall and simple effects for the two-by-two factorial trial design.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: The two-by-two factorial design randomizes participants to receive treatment A alone, treatment B alone, both treatments A and B(AB), or neither treatment (C). When the combined effect of A and B is less than the sum of the A and B effects, called a subadditive interaction, there can be low power to detect the A effect using an overall test, that is, factorial analysis, which compares the A and AB groups to the C and B groups. Such an interaction may have occurred in the Action to Control Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetes blood pressure trial (ACCORD BP) which simultaneously randomized participants to receive intensive or standard blood pressure, control and intensive or standard glycemic control. For the primary outcome of major cardiovascular event, the overall test for efficacy of intensive blood pressure control was nonsignificant. In such an instance, simple effect tests of A versus C and B versus C may be useful since they are not affected by a subadditive interaction, but they can have lower power since they use half the participants of the overall trial. We investigate multiple testing procedures which exploit the overall tests' sample size advantage and the simple tests' robustness to a potential interaction. METHODS: In the time-to-event setting, we use the stratified and ordinary logrank statistics' asymptotic means to calculate the power of the overall and simple tests under various scenarios. We consider the A and B research questions to be unrelated and allocate 0.05 significance level to each. For each question, we investigate three multiple testing procedures which allocate the type 1 error in different proportions for the overall and simple effects as well as the AB effect. The Equal Allocation 3 procedure allocates equal type 1 error to each of the three effects, the Proportional Allocation 2 procedure allocates 2/3 of the type 1 error to the overall A (respectively, B) effect and the remaining type 1 error to the AB effect, and the Equal Allocation 2 procedure allocates equal amounts to the simple A (respectively, B) and AB effects. These procedures are applied to ACCORD BP. RESULTS: Across various scenarios, Equal Allocation 3 had robust power for detecting a true effect. For ACCORD BP, all three procedures would have detected a benefit of intensive glycemia control. CONCLUSIONS: When there is no interaction, Equal Allocation 3 has less power than a factorial analysis. However, Equal Allocation 3 often has greater power when there is an interaction. The R package factorial2x2 can be used to explore the power gain or loss for different scenarios.

Geospatial Analysis of Neighborhood Environmental Stress in Relation to Biological Markers of Cardiovascular Health and Health Behaviors in Women: Protocol for a Pilot Study.

BACKGROUND: Innovative analyses of cardiovascular (CV) risk markers and health behaviors linked to neighborhood stressors are essential to further elucidate the mechanisms by which adverse neighborhood social conditions lead to poor CV outcomes. We propose to objectively measure physical activity (PA), sedentary behavior, and neighborhood stress using accelerometers, GPS, and real-time perceived ecological momentary assessment via smartphone apps and to link these to biological measures in a sample of White and African American women in Washington, DC, neighborhoods. OBJECTIVE: The primary aim of this study is to test the hypothesis that living in adverse neighborhood social conditions is associated with higher stress-related neural activity among 60 healthy women living in high or low socioeconomic status neighborhoods in Washington, DC. Sub-aim 1 of this study is to test the hypothesis that the association is moderated by objectively measured PA using an accelerometer. A secondary objective is to test the hypothesis that residing in adverse neighborhood social environment conditions is related to differences in vascular function. Sub-aim 2 of this study is to test the hypothesis that the association is moderated by objectively measured PA. The third aim of this study is to test the hypothesis that adverse neighborhood social environment conditions are related to differences in immune system activation. METHODS: The proposed study will be cross-sectional, with a sample of at least 60 women (30 healthy White women and 30 healthy Black women) from Wards 3 and 5 in Washington, DC. A sample of the women (n=30) will be recruited from high-income areas in Ward 3 from census tracts within a 15% of Ward 3's range for median household income. The other participants (n=30) will be recruited from low-income areas in Wards 5 from census tracts within a 15% of Ward 5's range for median household income. Finally, participants from Wards 3 and 5 will be matched based on age, race, and BMI. Participants will wear a GPS unit and accelerometer and report their stress and mood in real time using a smartphone. We will then examine the associations between GPS-derived neighborhood variables, stress-related neural activity measures, and adverse biological markers. RESULTS: The National Institutes of Health Institutional Review Board has approved this study. Recruitment will begin in the summer of 2021. CONCLUSIONS: Findings from this research could inform the development of multilevel behavioral interventions and policies to better manage environmental factors that promote immune system activation or psychosocial stress while concurrently working to increase PA, thereby influencing CV health. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID): PRR1-10.2196/29191.

Comparing Methods to Identify Wear-Time Intervals for Physical Activity With the Fitbit Charge 2.

There is no established method for processing data from commercially available physical activity trackers. This study aims to develop a standardized approach to defining valid wear time for use in future interventions and analyses. Sixteen African American women (mean age = 62.1 years and mean body mass index = 35.5 kg/m2) wore the Fitbit Charge 2 for 20 days. Method 1 defined a valid day as ≥10-hr wear time with heart rate data. Method 2 removed minutes without heart rate data, minutes with heart rate ≤ mean - 2 SDs below mean and ≤2 steps, and nighttime. Linear regression modeled steps per day per week change. Using Method 1 (n = 292 person-days), participants had 20.5 (SD = 4.3) hr wear time per day compared with 16.3 (SD = 2.2) hr using Method 2 (n = 282) (p < .0001). With Method 1, participants took 7,436 (SD = 3,543) steps per day compared with 7,298 (SD = 3,501) steps per day with Method 2 (p = .64). The proposed algorithm represents a novel approach to standardizing data generated by physical activity trackers. Future studies are needed to improve the accuracy of physical activity data sets.

Event-specific win ratios and testing with terminal and non-terminal events.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: In clinical trials, the primary outcome is often a composite endpoint defined as time to the first occurrence of either death or certain non-fatal events. Thus, a portion of available data would be omitted. In the win ratio approach, priorities are given to the clinically more important events, and more data are used. However, its power may be low if the treatment effect is predominantly on the non-terminal event. METHODS: We propose event-specific win ratios obtained separately on the terminal and non-terminal events. They can then be used to form global tests such as a linear combination test, the maximum test, or a χ2 test. RESULTS: In simulations, these tests often improve the power of the original win ratio test. Furthermore, when the terminal and non-terminal events experience differential treatment effects, the new tests are often more powerful than the log-rank test for the composite outcome. Whether the treatment effect is primarily on the terminal events or not, the new tests based on the event-specific win ratios can be useful when different types of events are present. The new tests can reject the null hypothesis of no difference in the event distributions in the two treatment arms with the terminal event showing detrimental effect and the non-terminal event showing beneficial effect. The maximum test and the χ2 test do not have test-estimation coherency, but the maximum test has the coherency that the global null is rejected if and only if the null for one of the event types is rejected. When applied to data from the trial Aldosterone Antagonist Therapy for Adults With Heart Failure and Preserved Systolic Function (TOPCAT), the new tests all reject the null hypothesis of no treatment effect while both the log-rank test used in TOPCAT and the original win ratio approach show non-significant p-values. CONCLUSION: Whether the treatment effect is primarily on the terminal events or the non-terminal events, the maximum test based on the event-specific win ratios can be a useful alternative for testing treatment effect in clinical trials with time-to-event outcomes when different types of events are present.

Multilevel mobile health approach to improve cardiovascular health in resource-limited communities with Step It Up: a randomised controlled trial protocol targeting physical activity.

INTRODUCTION: Although physical activity (PA) reduces cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk, physical inactivity remains a pressing public health concern, especially among African American (AA) women in the USA. PA interventions focused on AA women living in resource-limited communities with scarce PA infrastructure are needed. Mobile health (mHealth) technology can increase access to PA interventions. We describe the development of a clinical protocol for a multilevel, community-based, mHealth PA intervention for AA women. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: An mHealth intervention targeting AA women living in resource-limited Washington, DC communities was developed based on the socioecological framework for PA. Over 6 months, we will use a Sequential Multi-Assignment, Randomized Trial approach to compare the effects on PA of location-based remote messaging (named 'tailored-to-place') to standard remote messaging in an mHealth intervention. Participants will be randomised to a remote messaging intervention for 3 months, at which point the intervention strategy will adapt based on individuals' PA levels. Those who do not meet the PA goal will be rerandomised to more intensive treatment. Participants will be followed for another 3 months to determine the contribution of each mHealth intervention to PA level. This protocol will use novel statistical approaches to account for the adaptive strategy. Finally, effects of PA changes on CVD risk biomarkers will be characterised. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This protocol has been developed in partnership with a Washington, DC-area community advisory board to ensure feasibility and acceptability to community members. The National Institutes of Health Intramural IRB approved this research and the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute provided funding. Once published, results of this work will be disseminated to community members through presentations at community advisory board meetings and our quarterly newsletter. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT03288207.

Supplementation with saury oil, a fish oil high in omega-11 monounsaturated fatty acids, improves plasma lipids in healthy subjects.

BACKGROUND: Fish oil enriched in omega-11 long-chain monounsaturated fatty acids (LCMUFAs; C20:1 and C22:1 isomers combined) have shown lipid-lowering and atheroprotective effects in animal models. OBJECTIVE: To perform a first-in-human trial of LCMUFA-rich saury fish oil supplementation to test its safety and possible effect on plasma lipids. METHODS: A double-blind, randomized, crossover clinical trial was carried out in 30 healthy normolipidemic adults (BMI <25 kg/m2; mean TG, 84 mg/dL). Treatment periods of 8 weeks were separated by an 8-week washout period. Subjects were randomized to receive either 12 g of saury oil (3.5 g of LCMUFA and 3.4 g of omega-3 FAs) or identical capsules with control oil (a mixture of sardine and olive oil; 4.9 g of shorter-chain MUFA oleate and 3 g of omega-3 FAs). RESULTS: Saury oil supplementation was safe and resulted in LDL particle counts 12% lower than control oil (P < .001). Saury oil also had a minor effect on increasing HDL particle size (9.8 nm vs 9.7 nm; P < .05) based on a linear mixed effect model. In contrast, control oil, but not saury oil, increased LDL-C by 7.5% compared with baseline (P < .05). Saury oil had similar effects compared with control oil on lowering plasma TG levels, VLDL, and TG-rich lipoprotein particle counts (by ∼16%, 25%, and 35%, respectively; P < .05), and increasing HDL-C and cholesterol efflux capacity (by ∼6% and 8%, respectively; P < .05) compared with baseline. CONCLUSION: Saury oil supplementation is well tolerated and has beneficial effects on several cardiovascular parameters, such as LDL particle counts, HDL particle size, and plasma TG levels.