A new trophic specialization buffers a top predator against climate-driven resource instability.

Intraspecific phenotypic variability is key to respond to environmental changes and anomalies. However, documenting the emergence of behavioral diversification in natural populations has remained elusive due to the difficulty of observing such a phenomenon at the right time and place. Here, we investigated how the emergence of a new trophic strategy in a population subjected to high fluctuations in the availability of its main trophic resource (migrating songbirds) affected the breeding performance, population structure, and population fitness of a specialized color polymorphic predator, the Eleonora's falcon from the Canary Islands. Using long-term data (2007-2022), we found that the exploitation of an alternative prey (a local petrel species) was associated with the growth of a previously residual falcon colony. Pairs in this colony laid earlier and raised more fledglings than in the other established colonies. The specialization on petrels increased over time, independently of annual fluctuations in prey availability. Importantly, however, the positive effect of petrel consumption on productivity was stronger in years with lower food availability. This trophic diversification was further associated with the genetically determined color morph, with dark individuals preying more frequently on petrels than pale ones, which might promote the long-term maintenance of genotypic and phenotypic diversity. We empirically demonstrate how the emergence of an alternative trophic strategy can buffer populations against harsh environmental fluctuations by stabilizing their productivity.

Novel community data in ecology-properties and prospects.

New technologies for monitoring biodiversity such as environmental (e)DNA, passive acoustic monitoring, and optical sensors promise to generate automated spatiotemporal community observations at unprecedented scales and resolutions. Here, we introduce 'novel community data' as an umbrella term for these data. We review the emerging field around novel community data, focusing on new ecological questions that could be addressed; the analytical tools available or needed to make best use of these data; and the potential implications of these developments for policy and conservation. We conclude that novel community data offer many opportunities to advance our understanding of fundamental ecological processes, including community assembly, biotic interactions, micro- and macroevolution, and overall ecosystem functioning.

Niche dynamics along two centuries of multiple crayfish invasions.

The realised ecological niches of species may change in response to dynamic abiotic and biotic environments, particularly under fast global change. To fully understand the dynamics of niche features and their drivers, it is essential to have a long-term view of species distributions and the factors that may have influenced them. Here, we analysed the distribution and niche dynamics of the Italian crayfish (Austropotamobius fulcisianus) in the Iberian Peninsula over the past 200 years. The Italian crayfish was introduced to Spain in the 16th century, and spread due to multiple stocking events until the 1970s, when two North American crayfish (red swamp crayfish Procambarus clarkii, and signal crayfish Pacifastacus leniusculus) were introduced. Both North American species are carriers of a pathogen (Aphanomyces astaci, the causal agent of crayfish plague) lethal to the Italian crayfish. We hypothesised that the realised niche of the Italian crayfish, both in breadth and in position, has changed over time following changes in its range. The distribution of the Italian crayfish expanded from the mid-19th century until the mid-20th century, in association with an enlargement of its realised niched, mostly towards less abrupt and more coastal-influenced areas. After the introduction of the North American crayfishes, the collapse of the Italian crayfish involved a niche shift towards rough terrains in mountain areas. North American crayfish have eventually occupied most of the Italian crayfish's niche space, with the few no-coexistence areas being relegated to the most abrupt and high-elevation territories. Our historical approach allowed us to document and understand the highly dynamic distribution and niche of the Italian crayfish in the presence of invader counterparts, and to explore the environmental conditions under which their coexistence is minimised.

Increasing climatic decoupling of bird abundances and distributions.

Species abundances and distributions are changing in response to changing climate and other anthropogenic drivers but how this translates into how well species can match their optimal climate conditions as they change is not well understood. Using a continental-scale 30-year time series, we quantified temporal trends in climate matching of North American bird species and tested whether geographical variation in rates of climate and land use change and/or species traits could underlie variation in trends among species. Overall, we found that species abundances and distributions are becoming more decoupled from climate as it changes through time. Species differences in climate matching trends were related to their ecological traits, particularly habitat specialization, but not to average rates of climate and land use change within the species' ranges. Climatic decoupling through time was particularly prominent for birds that were declining in abundance and occupancy, including threatened species. While we could not discern whether climate decoupling causes or is caused by the negative population trends, higher climatic decoupling in declining species could lead to a feedback as birds experience increasing exposure to suboptimal climatic conditions.

A 16th-century biodiversity and crop inventory.

Documenting and understanding long-term biodiversity change is limited by the availability of historical data, particularly from periods preceding major anthropogenic changes associated with the Industrial Revolution. We mined the information of a standardized historical survey developed in 628 localities across Spain between 1574 and 1582 (Relaciones Topográficas de Felipe II) with the goal of producing a general characterization of Spanish settlements, including, though not limited to, natural resources. From this survey, we were able to gather 7309 records for 75 wild plant taxa, 89 wild animal taxa, and 60 crop and domestic animal taxa. These data can be used to reconstruct historical land use and habitat cover, and model historical distributions of many species, including emblematic ones such as wolf and bear, which can establish reference distributions to assess range and niche expansion, contraction, and shifts. Data are provided under a Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial (CC-BY-NC) 4.0 License. Please cite this data paper when the data are used in publications. The authors are open to collaborate in projects based on this dataset.

Accounting for temporal change in multiple biodiversity patterns improves the inference of metacommunity processes.

In metacommunity ecology, a major focus has been on combining observational and analytical approaches to identify the role of critical assembly processes, such as dispersal limitation and environmental filtering, but this work has largely ignored temporal community dynamics. Here, we develop a "virtual ecologist" approach to evaluate assembly processes by simulating metacommunities varying in three main processes: density-independent responses to abiotic conditions, density-dependent biotic interactions, and dispersal. We then calculate a number of commonly used summary statistics of community structure in space and time and use random forests to evaluate their utility for inferring the strength of these three processes. We find that (i) both spatial and temporal data are necessary to disentangle metacommunity processes based on the summary statistics we test, and including statistics that are measured through time increases the explanatory power of random forests by up to 59% compared to cases where only spatial variation is considered; (ii) the three studied processes can be distinguished with different descriptors; and (iii) each summary statistic is differently sensitive to temporal and spatial sampling effort. Including repeated observations of metacommunities over time was essential for inferring the metacommunity processes, particularly dispersal. Some of the most useful statistics include the coefficient of variation of species abundances through time and metrics that incorporate variation in the relative abundances (evenness) of species. We conclude that a combination of methods and summary statistics is probably necessary to understand the processes that underlie metacommunity assembly through space and time, but we recognize that these results will be modified when other processes or summary statistics are used.

The interplay of wind and uplift facilitates over-water flight in facultative soaring birds.

Flying over the open sea is energetically costly for terrestrial birds. Despite this, over-water journeys of many birds, sometimes hundreds of kilometres long, are uncovered by bio-logging technology. To understand how these birds afford their flights over the open sea, we investigated the role of atmospheric conditions, specifically wind and uplift, in subsidizing over-water flight at a global scale. We first established that ΔT, the temperature difference between sea surface and air, is a meaningful proxy for uplift over water. Using this proxy, we showed that the spatio-temporal patterns of sea-crossing in terrestrial migratory birds are associated with favourable uplift conditions. We then analysed route selection over the open sea for five facultative soaring species, representative of all major migratory flyways. The birds maximized wind support when selecting their sea-crossing routes and selected greater uplift when suitable wind support was available. They also preferred routes with low long-term uncertainty in wind conditions. Our findings suggest that, in addition to wind, uplift may play a key role in the energy seascape for bird migration that in turn determines strategies and associated costs for birds crossing ecological barriers such as the open sea.

Adaptive drift and barrier-avoidance by a fly-forage migrant along a climate-driven flyway.

BACKGROUND: Route choice and travel performance of fly-forage migrants are partly driven by large-scale habitat availability, but it remains unclear to what extent wind support through large-scale wind regimes moulds their migratory behaviour. We aimed to determine to what extent a trans-equatorial fly-forage migrant engages in adaptive drift through distinct wind regimes and biomes across Africa. The Inter-tropical Front (ITF) marks a strong and seasonally shifting climatic boundary at the thermal equator, and we assessed whether migratory detours were associated with this climatic feature. Furthermore, we sought to disentangle the influence of wind and biome on daily, regional and seasonal travel performance. METHODS: We GPS-tracked 19 adult Eleonora's falcons Falco eleonorae from the westernmost population on the Canary Islands across 39 autumn and 36 spring migrations to and from Madagascar. Tracks were annotated with wind data to assess the falcons' orientation behaviour and the wind support they achieved in each season and distinct biomes. We further tested whether falcon routes across the Sahel were correlated with the ITF position, and how realized wind support and biome affect daily travel times, distances and speeds. RESULTS: Changes in orientation behaviour across Africa's biomes were associated with changes in prevailing wind fields. Falcons realized higher wind support along their detours than was available along the shortest possible route by drifting through adverse autumn wind fields, but compromised wind support while detouring through supportive spring wind fields. Movements across the Sahel-Sudan zone were strongly associated to the ITF position in autumn, but were more individually variable in spring. Realized wind support was an important driver of daily travel speeds and distances, in conjunction with regional wind-independent variation in daily travel time budgets. CONCLUSIONS: Although daily travel time budgets of falcons vary independently from wind, their daily travel performance is strongly affected by orientation-dependent wind support. Falcons thereby tend to drift to minimize or avoid headwinds through opposing wind fields and over ecological barriers, while compensating through weak or supportive wind fields and over hospitable biomes. The ITF may offer a climatic leading line to fly-forage migrants in terms of both flight and foraging conditions.

A process-based metacommunity framework linking local and regional scale community ecology.

The metacommunity concept has the potential to integrate local and regional dynamics within a general community ecology framework. To this end, the concept must move beyond the discrete archetypes that have largely defined it (e.g. neutral vs. species sorting) and better incorporate local scale species interactions and coexistence mechanisms. Here, we present a fundamental reconception of the framework that explicitly links local coexistence theory to the spatial processes inherent to metacommunity theory, allowing for a continuous range of competitive community dynamics. These dynamics emerge from the three underlying processes that shape ecological communities: (1) density-independent responses to abiotic conditions, (2) density-dependent biotic interactions and (3) dispersal. Stochasticity is incorporated in the demographic realisation of each of these processes. We formalise this framework using a simulation model that explores a wide range of competitive metacommunity dynamics by varying the strength of the underlying processes. Using this model and framework, we show how existing theories, including the traditional metacommunity archetypes, are linked by this common set of processes. We then use the model to generate new hypotheses about how the three processes combine to interactively shape diversity, functioning and stability within metacommunities.

Biodiversity conservation through the lens of metacommunity ecology.

Metacommunity ecology combines local (e.g., environmental filtering and biotic interactions) and regional (e.g., dispersal and heterogeneity) processes to understand patterns of species abundance, occurrence, composition, and diversity across scales of space and time. As such, it has a great potential to generalize and synthesize our understanding of many ecological problems. Here, we give an overview of how a metacommunity perspective can provide useful insights for conservation biology, which aims to understand and mitigate the effects of anthropogenic drivers that decrease population sizes, increase extinction probabilities, and threaten biodiversity. We review four general metacommunity processes-environmental filtering, biotic interactions, dispersal, and ecological drift-and discuss how key anthropogenic drivers (e.g., habitat loss and fragmentation, and nonnative species) can alter these processes. We next describe how the patterns of interest in metacommunities (abundance, occupancy, and diversity) map onto issues at the heart of conservation biology, and describe cases where conservation biology benefits by taking a scale-explicit metacommunity perspective. We conclude with some ways forward for including metacommunity perspectives into ideas of ecosystem functioning and services, as well as approaches to habitat management, preservation, and restoration.

Cascading effects of climate variability on the breeding success of an edge population of an apex predator.

Large-scale environmental forces can influence biodiversity at different levels of biological organization. Climate, in particular, is often associated with species distributions and diversity gradients. However, its mechanistic link to population dynamics is still poorly understood. Here, we unravelled the full mechanistic path by which a climatic driver, the Atlantic trade winds, determines the viability of a bird population. We monitored the breeding population of Eleonora's falcons in the Canary Islands for over a decade (2007-2017) and integrated different methods and data to reconstruct how the availability of their prey (migratory birds) is regulated by trade winds. We tracked foraging movements of breeding adults using GPS, monitored departure of migratory birds using weather radar and simulated their migration trajectories using an individual-based, spatially explicit model. We demonstrate that regional easterly winds regulate the flux of migratory birds that is available to hunting falcons, determining food availability for their chicks and consequent breeding success. By reconstructing how migratory birds are pushed towards the Canary Islands by trade winds, we explain most of the variation (up to 86%) in annual productivity for over a decade. This study unequivocally illustrates how a climatic driver can influence local-scale demographic processes while providing novel evidence of wind as a major determinant of population fitness in a top predator.

Los factores ambientales a gran escala afectan a la biodiversidad a distintos niveles de organización. El clima en particular, a menudo se asocia a la distribución de especies y gradientes de diversidad. Sin embargo, los mecanismos que lo vinculan con la dinámica de poblaciones siguen siendo poco conocidos. En este estudio revelamos el mecanismo a través del cual un factor climático, los vientos Alisios atlánticos, determinan la viabilidad de una población de una especie de ave rapaz. Monitorizamos la población canaria de Halcón de Eleonor durante una década (2007­2017) e integramos distintos datos y métodos para reconstruir cómo la disponibilidad de alimento (pequeñas aves migratorias) es regulada por los vientos Alisios. Además, monitorizamos los movimientos de caza de adultos reproductores mediante GPS y el inicio de la migración de sus presas mediante un radar meteorológico, y simulamos la trayectoria de migración de estas presas utilizando un modelo espacialmente explícito basado en el individuo. Demostramos que los patrones de vientos del este regulan el flujo de aves migratorias que determina la disponibilidad de alimento para los halcones y sus pollos y, por tanto, su éxito reproductor. Al reconstruir cómo las aves migratorias son desviadas hasta las Islas Canarias por los vientos Alisios conseguimos explicar la mayor parte de la variación (hasta el 86%) en la productividad anual de los halcones durante una década. Este estudio ilustra cómo un fenómeno climático a gran escala puede afectar a los procesos demográficos a escala local y aporta nueva evidencia de que el viento puede ser un importante factor determinante de la eficacia biológica de un predador.

Spatial scale modulates the inference of metacommunity assembly processes.

The abundance and distribution of species across the landscape depend on the interaction between local, spatial, and stochastic processes. However, empirical syntheses relating these processes to spatiotemporal patterns of structure in metacommunities remain elusive. One important reason for this lack of synthesis is that the relative importance of the core assembly processes (dispersal, selection, and drift) critically depends on the spatial grain and extent over which communities are studied. To illustrate this, we simulated different aspects of community assembly on heterogeneous landscapes, including the strength of response to environmental heterogeneity (inherent to niche theory) vs. dispersal and stochastic drift (inherent to neutral theory). We show that increasing spatial extent leads to increasing importance of niche selection, whereas increasing spatial grain leads to decreasing importance of niche selection. The strength of these scaling effects depended on environment configuration, dispersal capacity, and niche breadth. By mapping the variation observed from the scaling effects in simulations, we could recreate the entire range of variation observed within and among empirical studies. This means that variation in the relative importance of assembly processes among empirical studies is largely scale dependent and cannot be directly compared. The scaling coefficient of the relative contribution of assembly processes, however, can be interpreted as a scale-integrative estimate to compare assembly processes across different regions and ecosystems. This emphasizes the necessity to consider spatial scaling as an explicit component of studies intended to infer the importance of community assembly processes.

Ecological determinants of avian malaria infections: An integrative analysis at landscape, mosquito and vertebrate community levels.

Vector and host communities, as well as habitat characteristics, may have important but different impacts on the prevalence, richness and evenness of vector-borne parasites. We investigated the relative importance of (1) the mosquito community composition, (2) the vertebrate community composition and (3) landscape characteristics on the prevalence, richness and evenness of avian Plasmodium. We hypothesized that parasite prevalence will be more affected by vector-related parameters, while host parameters should be also important to explain Plasmodium richness and evenness. We sampled 2,588 wild house sparrows (Passer domesticus) and 340,829 mosquitoes, and we performed vertebrate censuses at 45 localities in the Southwest of Spain. These localities included urban, rural and natural landscapes that were characterized by several habitat variables. Twelve Plasmodium lineages were identified in house sparrows corresponding to three major clades. Variation partitioning showed that landscape characteristics explained the highest fraction of variation in all response variables (21.0%-44.8%). Plasmodium prevalence was in addition explained by vector-related variables (5.4%) and its interaction with landscape (10.2%). Parasite richness and evenness were mostly explained by vertebrate community-related variables. The structuring role of landscape characteristics in vector and host communities was a key factor in determining parasite prevalence, richness and evenness, although the role of each factor differed according to the parasite parameters studied. These results show that the biotic and abiotic contexts are important to explain the transmission dynamics of mosquito-borne pathogens in the wild.

Linking seasonal home range size with habitat selection and movement in a mountain ungulate.

BACKGROUND: Space use by animals is determined by the interplay between movement and the environment, and is thus mediated by habitat selection, biotic interactions and intrinsic factors of moving individuals. These processes ultimately determine home range size, but their relative contributions and dynamic nature remain less explored. We investigated the role of habitat selection, movement unrelated to habitat selection and intrinsic factors related to sex in driving space use and home range size in Iberian ibex, Capra pyrenaica. We used GPS collars to track ibex across the year in two different geographical areas of Sierra Nevada, Spain, and measured habitat variables related to forage and roost availability. RESULTS: By using integrated step selection analysis (iSSA), we show that habitat selection was important to explain space use by ibex. As a consequence, movement was constrained by habitat selection, as observed displacement rate was shorter than expected under null selection. Selection-independent movement, selection strength and resource availability were important drivers of seasonal home range size. Both displacement rate and directional persistence had a positive relationship with home range size while accounting for habitat selection, suggesting that individual characteristics and state may also affect home range size. Ibex living at higher altitudes, where resource availability shows stronger altitudinal gradients across the year, had larger home ranges. Home range size was larger in spring and autumn, when ibex ascend and descend back, and smaller in summer and winter, when resources are more stable. Therefore, home range size decreased with resource availability. Finally, males had larger home ranges than females, which might be explained by differences in body size and reproductive behaviour. CONCLUSIONS: Movement, selection strength, resource availability and intrinsic factors related to sex determined home range size of Iberian ibex. Our results highlight the need to integrate and account for process dependencies, here the interdependence of movement and habitat selection, to understand how animals use space. This study contributes to understand how movement links environmental and geographical space use and determines home range behaviour in large herbivores.

Can Aquatic Plants Keep Pace with Climate Change?

The persistence of species may depend upon their capacity to keep pace with climate change. However, dispersal has been ignored in the vast majority of studies that aimed at estimating and predicting range shifts as a response to climate change. Long distance dispersal (LDD) in particular might promote rapid range shifts and allow species to track suitable habitat. Many aquatic plant species are dispersed by birds and have the potential to be dispersed over hundreds of kilometers during the bird migration seasons. I argue that such dispersal potential might be critical to allow species to track climate change happening at unprecedented high rates. As a case study, I used dispersal data from three aquatic plant species dispersed by migratory birds to model range shifts in response to climate change projections. By comparing four dispersal scenarios - (1) no dispersal, (2) unlimited dispersal, (3) LDD < 100 km, and (4) LDD mediated by bird migratory movements -, it was shown that, for bird-mediated dispersal, the rate of colonization is sufficient to counterbalance the rate of habitat loss. The estimated rates of colonization (3.2-31.5 km⋅year-1) are higher than, for example, the rate of global warming (previously estimated at 0.42 km⋅year-1). Although further studies are needed, the results suggest that these aquatic plant species can adjust their ranges under a severe climate change scenario. Therefore, investigating the dispersal capacity of species, namely their LDD potential, may contribute to estimate the likelihood of species to keep pace with climate change.

Disentangling the roles of diversity resistance and priority effects in community assembly.

The assembly of many biological communities is constrained by the resistance exerted by resident species to immigration (biotic resistance). Two important mechanisms contribute to the generation of biotic resistance: diversity resistance and priority effects. These mechanisms have been explored through theoretical models and laboratory experiments, but the importance of their interplay in the assembly of natural communities remains untested. We used a mesocosm experiment with communities of aquatic plants and zooplankton assembled from natural propagule banks to test whether and how diversity resistance, mediated by the diversity of the resident community, and priority effects, mediated by the timing of immigrants' arrival, affect the establishment of immigrant species and community diversity. In plant communities, immigration success decreased with increasing resident-species richness (diversity resistance) and arrival time (priority effects). Further, diversity resistance was stronger in communities colonized later in the season, indicating that these mechanisms interacted to reinforce biotic resistance. This interaction ultimately determined species richness and beta-diversity in plant communities. For zooplankton, in contrast, neither the diversity of resident communities nor the time of arrival affected the establishment of immigrant species. In these communities, beta-diversity was explained by species sorting, namely biotic effects mediated by plant assemblages. Our results show that the progressive buildup of communities generates an interaction between diversity resistance and priority effects that eventually determines community diversity, unless species sorting mediated by environmental filtering supersedes the effect of biotic resistance. Therefore, disentangling the mechanisms underlying biotic resistance contributes to understand how species diversity is ultimately determined.

Migratory Birds as Global Dispersal Vectors.

Propagule dispersal beyond local scales has been considered rare and unpredictable. However, for many plants, invertebrates, and microbes dispersed by birds, long-distance dispersal (LDD) might be regularly achieved when mediated by migratory movements. Because LDD operates over spatial extents spanning hundreds to thousands of kilometers, it can promote rapid range shifts and determine species distributions. We review evidence supporting this widespread LDD service and propose a conceptual framework for estimating LDD by migratory birds. Although further research and validation efforts are still needed, we show that current knowledge can be used to make more realistic estimations of LDD mediated by regular bird migrations, thus refining current predictions of its ecological and evolutionary consequences.

Optimal methods for fitting probability distributions to propagule retention time in studies of zoochorous dispersal.

BACKGROUND: Propagule retention time is a key factor in determining propagule dispersal distance and the shape of "seed shadows". Propagules dispersed by animal vectors are either ingested and retained in the gut until defecation or attached externally to the body until detachment. Retention time is a continuous variable, but it is commonly measured at discrete time points, according to pre-established sampling time-intervals. Although parametric continuous distributions have been widely fitted to these interval-censored data, the performance of different fitting methods has not been evaluated. To investigate the performance of five different fitting methods, we fitted parametric probability distributions to typical discretized retention-time data with known distribution using as data-points either the lower, mid or upper bounds of sampling intervals, as well as the cumulative distribution of observed values (using either maximum likelihood or non-linear least squares for parameter estimation); then compared the estimated and original distributions to assess the accuracy of each method. We also assessed the robustness of these methods to variations in the sampling procedure (sample size and length of sampling time-intervals). RESULTS: Fittings to the cumulative distribution performed better for all types of parametric distributions (lognormal, gamma and Weibull distributions) and were more robust to variations in sample size and sampling time-intervals. These estimated distributions had negligible deviations of up to 0.045 in cumulative probability of retention times (according to the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic) in relation to original distributions from which propagule retention time was simulated, supporting the overall accuracy of this fitting method. In contrast, fitting the sampling-interval bounds resulted in greater deviations that ranged from 0.058 to 0.273 in cumulative probability of retention times, which may introduce considerable biases in parameter estimates. CONCLUSIONS: We recommend the use of cumulative probability to fit parametric probability distributions to propagule retention time, specifically using maximum likelihood for parameter estimation. Furthermore, the experimental design for an optimal characterization of unimodal propagule retention time should contemplate at least 500 recovered propagules and sampling time-intervals not larger than the time peak of propagule retrieval, except in the tail of the distribution where broader sampling time-intervals may also produce accurate fits.

Overseas seed dispersal by migratory birds.

Long-distance dispersal (LDD) promotes the colonization of isolated and remote habitats, and thus it has been proposed as a mechanism for explaining the distributions of many species. Birds are key LDD vectors for many sessile organisms such as plants, yet LDD beyond local and regional scales has never been directly observed nor quantified. By sampling birds caught while in migratory flight by GPS-tracked wild falcons, we show that migratory birds transport seeds over hundreds of kilometres and mediate dispersal from mainland to oceanic islands. Up to 1.2% of birds that reached a small island of the Canary Archipelago (Alegranza) during their migration from Europe to Sub-Saharan Africa carried seeds in their guts. The billions of birds making seasonal migrations each year may then transport millions of seeds. None of the plant species transported by the birds occurs in Alegranza and most do not occur on nearby Canary Islands, providing a direct example of the importance of environmental filters in hampering successful colonization by immigrant species. The constant propagule pressure generated by these LDD events might, nevertheless, explain the colonization of some islands. Hence, migratory birds can mediate rapid range expansion or shifts of many plant taxa and determine their distribution.

Allometric scaling of long-distance seed dispersal by migratory birds.

Migratory birds are often suggested to be important vectors for long-distance dispersal (LDD) of plant and animal propagules. The scale of such dispersal events (hundreds to thousands of kilometers) can influence landscape-level biological processes and species distributions. However, the few vector species studied and the lack of proper integration of their migratory movement in models of LDD has precluded the study of their potential as long-distance biotic dispersers. By means of a mechanistic model parameterized with empirical data, we first investigated the properties of seed dispersal curves generated by migratory birds and then analyzed the effect of bird size on model parameters and consequent seed dispersal patterns. Seed dispersal curves showed in most cases large and heavy tails, resulting in relatively frequent LDD (up to 3.5% of dispersal distances longer than 100 km). Bird size mediated trade-offs between bird movement and seed retention time that, in turn, determined seed dispersal patterns and the potential of each bird species as an LDD vector. Our modeling framework builds on a mechanistic understanding of seed dispersal by migratory birds and may thus be a useful tool to estimate the scale and frequency of bird-mediated, large-scale transport of native, invasive, and pathogenic organisms.