Unit costs of needle and syringe program provision: a global systematic review and cost extrapolation.

BACKGROUND: Needle and syringe programs (NSPs) are effective at preventing HIV and hepatitis C virus (HCV) among people who inject drugs (PWID), yet global coverage is low, partly because governments lack data on the cost and cost-effectiveness of NSP in their countries to plan and fund their responses. We conducted a global systematic review of unit costs of NSP provision to inform estimation of cost drivers and extrapolated costs to other countries. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review to extract data on the cost per syringe distributed and its cost drivers. We estimated the impact of country-level and program-level variables on the cost per syringe distributed using linear mixed-effects models. These models were used to predict unit costs of NSP provision, with the best performing model used to extrapolate the cost per syringe distributed for 137 countries. The total cost for a comprehensive NSP (200 syringes per PWID/year) was also estimated for 68 countries with PWID population size estimates. RESULTS: We identified 55 estimates of the unit cost per syringe distributed from 14 countries. Unit costs were extrapolated for 137 countries, ranging from $0.08 to $20.77 (2020 USD) per syringe distributed. The total estimated spend for a high-coverage, comprehensive NSP across 68 countries with PWID size estimates is $5 035 902 000 for 10 887 500 PWID, 2.1-times higher than current spend. CONCLUSION: Our review identified cost estimates from high-income, upper-middle-income, and lower-middle-income countries. Regression models may be useful for estimating NSP costs in countries without data to inform HIV/HCV prevention programming and policy.

Public health benefits of shifting from hospital-focused to ambulatory TB care in Eastern Europe: Optimising TB investments in Belarus, the Republic of Moldova, and Romania.

High rates of drug-resistant tuberculosis (DR-TB) continue to threaten public health, especially in Eastern Europe. Costs for treating DR-TB are substantially higher than treating drug-susceptible TB, and higher yet if DR-TB services are delivered in hospital. The WHO recommends that multidrug-resistant (MDR) TB be treated using mainly ambulatory care, shown to have non-inferior health outcomes, however, there has been a delay to transition away from hospital-focused MDR-TB care in certain Eastern European countries. Allocative efficiency analyses were conducted for three countries in Eastern Europe, Belarus, the Republic of Moldova, and Romania, to minimise a combination of TB incidence, prevalence, and mortality by 2035. A primary focus of these studies was to determine the health benefits and financial savings that could be realised if DR-TB service delivery shifted from hospital-focused to ambulatory care. Here we provide a comprehensive assessment of findings from these studies to demonstrate the collective benefit of transitioning from hospital-focused to ambulatory TB care, and to address common regional considerations. We highlight that transitioning from hospital-focused to ambulatory TB care could reduce treatment costs by 20% in Romania, 24% in Moldova, and by as much as 40% in Belarus or almost 35 million US dollars across these three countries by 2035 without affecting quality of care. Improved TB outcomes could be achieved, however, without additional spending by reinvesting these savings in higher-impact TB diagnosis and more efficacious DR-TB treatment regimens. We found commonalities in the large portion of TB cases treated in hospital across these three regional countries, and similar obstacles to transitioning to ambulatory care. National governments in the Eastern European region should examine barriers delaying adoption of ambulatory DR-TB care and consider lost opportunities caused by delays in switching to more efficient treatment modes.

Frequent and unpredictable changes in COVID-19 policies and restrictions reduce the accuracy of model forecasts.

Between June and August 2020, an agent-based model was used to project rates of COVID-19 infection incidence and cases diagnosed as positive from 15 September to 31 October 2020 for 72 geographic settings. Five scenarios were modelled: a baseline scenario where no future changes were made to existing restrictions, and four scenarios representing small or moderate changes in restrictions at two intervals. Post hoc, upper and lower bounds for number of diagnosed Covid-19 cases were compared with actual data collected during the prediction window. A regression analysis with 17 covariates was performed to determine correlates of accurate projections. It was found that the actual data fell within the lower and upper bounds in 27 settings and out of bounds in 45 settings. The only statistically significant predictor of actual data within the predicted bounds was correct assumptions about future policy changes (OR 15.04; 95% CI 2.20-208.70; p = 0.016). Frequent changes in restrictions implemented by governments, which the modelling team was not always able to predict, in part explains why the majority of model projections were inaccurate compared with actual outcomes and supports revision of projections when policies are changed as well as the importance of modelling teams collaborating with policy experts.

How to do (or not to do) health resource allocations using constrained mathematical optimization.

Despite the push towards evidence-based health policy, decisions about how to allocate health resources are all too often made on the basis of political forces or a continuation of the status quo. This results in wastage in health systems and loss of potential population health. However, if health systems are to serve people best, then they must operate efficiently and equitably, and appropriate valuation methods are needed to determine how to do this. With the advances in computing power over the past few decades, advanced mathematical optimization algorithms can now be run on personal computers and can be used to provide comprehensive, evidence-based recommendations for policymakers on how to prioritize health spending considering policy objectives, interactions of interventions, real-world system constraints and budget envelopes. Such methods provide an invaluable complement to traditional or extended cost-effectiveness analyses or league tables. In this paper, we describe how such methods work, how policymakers and programme managers can access them and implement their recommendations and how they have changed health spending in the world to date.

Cost-effectiveness and impact of pre-exposure prophylaxis to prevent HIV among men who have sex with men in Asia: A modelling study.

INTRODUCTION: More than 70% of new HIV infections in Asia occurred in eight countries in 2020: Cambodia, China, India, Indonesia, Myanmar, Nepal, Thailand, and Vietnam-with a rising incidence among men who have sex with men (MSM). The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for those at risk of acquiring HIV, yet wide-scale implementation of PrEP, on a daily or event-driven basis, has been limited in Asia. METHODS: The Optima HIV model was applied to examine the impact of scaling-up PrEP over five-years to cover an additional 15% of MSM compared with baseline coverage, a target deemed feasible by regional experts. Based on behavioral survey data, we assume that covering 15% of higher-risk MSM will cover 30% of all sexual acts in this group. Scenarios to compare the impact of generic-brand daily dosing of PrEP with generic event-driven dosing (15 days a month) were modelled from the start of 2022 to the end of 2026. Cost-effectiveness of generic versus branded PrEP was also assessed for China, the only country with an active patent for branded, higher cost PrEP. The impact on new HIV infections among the entire population and cost per HIV-related disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted were estimated from the beginning of 2022 to the end of 2031 and from 2022 to 2051. RESULTS: If PrEP were scaled-up to cover an additional 15% of MSM engaging in higher-risk behavior from the beginning of 2022 to the end of 2026 in the eight Asian countries considered, an additional 100,000 (66,000-130,000) HIV infections (17%) and 300,000 (198,000-390,000) HIV-related DALYs (3%) could be averted over the 2022 to 2031 period. The estimated cost per HIV-related DALY averted from 2022 to 2031 ranged from US$600 for event-driven generic PrEP in Indonesia to US$34,400 for daily branded PrEP in Thailand. Over a longer timeframe from 2022 to 2051, the cost per HIV-related DALY averted could be reduced to US$100-US$12,700. CONCLUSION: PrEP is a critical tool to further reduce HIV incidence in highly concentrated epidemics. Implementing PrEP in Asia may be cost-effective in settings with increasing HIV prevalence among MSM and if PrEP drug costs can be reduced, PrEP could be more cost-effective over longer timeframes.

Serum antibodies to surface proteins of Chlamydia trachomatis as candidate biomarkers of disease: results from the Baltimore Chlamydia Adolescent/Young Adult Reproductive Management (CHARM) cohort.

We previously observed that the nine-member family of autotransported polymorphic membrane proteins (Pmps) of Chlamydia trachomatis is variably expressed in cell culture. Additionally, C. trachomatis-infected patients display variable Pmp-specific serum antibody profiles indirectly suggesting expression of unique Pmp profiles is an adaptive response to host-specific stimuli during infection. Here, we propose that the host response to Pmps and other outer surface proteins may correlate with disease severity. This study tests this hypothesis using an ELISA that measures serum IgG antibodies specific for the nine C. trachomatis Pmp subtypes and four immunodominant antigens (MOMP, OmcB, Hsp60, ClpP) in 265 participants of the Chlamydia Adolescent/Young Adult Reproductive Management (CHARM) cohort. More C. trachomatis-infected females displayed high Pmp-specific antibody levels (cut-off Indexes) than males (35.9%-40.7% of females vs. 24.2%-30.0% of males), with statistical significance for PmpC, F and H (P < 0.05). Differences in Pmp-specific antibody profiles were not observed between C. trachomatis-infected females with a clinical diagnosis of pelvic inflammatory disease (PID) and those without. However, a statistically significant association between high levels of OmcB-specific antibody and a PID diagnosis (P< 0.05) was observed. Using antibody levels as an indirect measure of antigen expression, our results suggest that gender- and/or site-specific (cervix in females vs. urethra in males) stimuli may control pmp expression in infected patients. They also support the possible existence of immune biomarkers of chlamydial infection associated with disease and underline the need for high resolution screening in human serum.

Using allocative efficiency analysis to inform health benefits package design for progressing towards Universal Health Coverage: Proof-of-concept studies in countries seeking decision support.

BACKGROUND: Countries are increasingly defining health benefits packages (HBPs) as a way of progressing towards Universal Health Coverage (UHC). Resources for health are commonly constrained, so it is imperative to allocate funds as efficiently as possible. We conducted allocative efficiency analyses using the Health Interventions Prioritization tool (HIPtool) to estimate the cost and impact of potential HBPs in three countries. These analyses explore the usefulness of allocative efficiency analysis and HIPtool in particular, in contributing to priority setting discussions. METHODS AND FINDINGS: HIPtool is an open-access and open-source allocative efficiency modelling tool. It is preloaded with publicly available data, including data on the 218 cost-effective interventions comprising the Essential UHC package identified in the 3rd Edition of Disease Control Priorities, and global burden of disease data from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. For these analyses, the data were adapted to the health systems of Armenia, Côte d'Ivoire and Zimbabwe. Local data replaced global data where possible. Optimized resource allocations were then estimated using the optimization algorithm. In Armenia, optimized spending on UHC interventions could avert 26% more disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), but even highly cost-effective interventions are not funded without an increase in the current health budget. In Côte d'Ivoire, surgical interventions, maternal and child health and health promotion interventions are scaled up under optimized spending with an estimated 22% increase in DALYs averted-mostly at the primary care level. In Zimbabwe, the estimated gain was even higher at 49% of additional DALYs averted through optimized spending. CONCLUSIONS: HIPtool applications can assist discussions around spending prioritization, HBP design and primary health care transformation. The analyses provided actionable policy recommendations regarding spending allocations across specific delivery platforms, disease programs and interventions. Resource constraints exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic increase the need for formal planning of resource allocation to maximize health benefits.

Viral Phrenology.

We introduce Viral Phrenology, a new scheme for understanding the genomic composition of spherical viruses based on the locations of their structural protrusions. We used icosahedral point arrays to classify 135 distinct viral capsids collected from over 600 capsids available in the VIPERdb. Using gauge points of point arrays, we found 149 unique structural protrusions. We then show how to use the locations of these protrusions to determine the genetic composition of the virus. We then show that ssDNA, dsDNA, dsRNA and ssRNA viruses use different arrangements for distributing their protrusions. We also found that Triangulation number is also partially dependent on the structural protrusions. This analysis begins to tie together Baltimore Classification and Triangulation number using point arrays.

Optima TB: A tool to help optimally allocate tuberculosis spending.

Approximately 85% of tuberculosis (TB) related deaths occur in low- and middle-income countries where health resources are scarce. Effective priority setting is required to maximise the impact of limited budgets. The Optima TB tool has been developed to support analytical capacity and inform evidence-based priority setting processes for TB health benefits package design. This paper outlines the Optima TB framework and how it was applied in Belarus, an upper-middle income country in Eastern Europe with a relatively high burden of TB. Optima TB is a population-based disease transmission model, with programmatic cost functions and an optimisation algorithm. Modelled populations include age-differentiated general populations and higher-risk populations such as people living with HIV. Populations and prospective interventions are defined in consultation with local stakeholders. In partnership with the latter, demographic, epidemiological, programmatic, as well as cost and spending data for these populations and interventions are then collated. An optimisation analysis of TB spending was conducted in Belarus, using program objectives and constraints defined in collaboration with local stakeholders, which included experts, decision makers, funders and organisations involved in service delivery, support and technical assistance. These analyses show that it is possible to improve health impact by redistributing current TB spending in Belarus. Specifically, shifting funding from inpatient- to outpatient-focused care models, and from mass screening to active case finding strategies, could reduce TB prevalence and mortality by up to 45% and 50%, respectively, by 2035. In addition, an optimised allocation of TB spending could lead to a reduction in drug-resistant TB infections by 40% over this period. This would support progress towards national TB targets without additional financial resources. The case study in Belarus demonstrates how reallocations of spending across existing and new interventions could have a substantial impact on TB outcomes. This highlights the potential for Optima TB and similar modelling tools to support evidence-based priority setting.

A Systematic Review of Interventions Used to Increase Blood Donor Compliance with Deferral Criteria.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Pre-donation screening of potential blood donors is critical for ensuring the safety of the donor blood supply, and donor deferral as a result of risk factors is practised worldwide. This systematic review was conducted in the context of an expert review convened by the Australian Red Cross Lifeblood in 2013 to consider Lifeblood's injecting drug use (IDU)-related policies and aimed to identify studies assessing interventions to improve compliance with deferral criteria in blood donation settings. MATERIALS AND METHODS: MEDLINE/PubMed, OVID Medline, OVID Embase, LILACS, and the Cochrane Library (CENTRAL and DARE) databases were searched for studies conducted within blood donation settings that examined interventions to increase blood donor compliance with deferral criteria. Observational and experimental studies from all geographical areas were considered. RESULTS: Ten studies were identified that tested at least one intervention to improve blood donor compliance with deferral criteria, including computerized interviews or questionnaires, direct and indirect oral questioning, educational materials, and a combination of a tickbox questionnaire and a personal donor interview. High-quality evidence from a single study was provided for the effectiveness of a computerized interview in improving detection of HIV risk behaviour. Low-quality evidence for the effectiveness of computerized interviews was provided by 3 additional studies. Two studies reported a moderate effect of direct questioning in increasing donor deferral, but the quality of the evidence was low. CONCLUSION: This review identified several interventions to improve donor compliance that have been tested in blood donation settings and provided evidence for the effectiveness of computerized interviews in improving detection of risk factors.

A New Method for Estimating the Incidence of Infectious Diseases.

Ambitious World Health Organization targets for disease elimination require monitoring of epidemics using routine health data in settings of decreasing and low incidence. We evaluated 2 methods commonly applied to routine testing results to estimate incidence rates that assume a uniform probability of infection between consecutive negative and positive tests based on 1) the midpoint of this interval and 2) a randomly selected point in this interval. We compared these with an approximation of the Poisson binomial distribution, which assigns partial incidence to time periods based on the uniform probability of occurrence in these intervals. We assessed bias, variance, and convergence of estimates using simulations of Weibull-distributed failure times with systematically varied baseline incidence and varying trend. We considered results for quarterly, half-yearly, and yearly incidence estimation frequencies. We applied the methods to assess human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) incidence in HIV-negative patients from the Treatment With Antiretrovirals and Their Impact on Positive and Negative Men (TAIPAN) Study, an Australian study of HIV incidence in men who have sex with men, between 2012 and 2018. The Poisson binomial method had reduced bias and variance at low levels of incidence and for increased estimation frequency, with increased consistency of estimation. Application of methods to real-world assessment of HIV incidence found decreased variance in Poisson binomial model estimates, with observed incidence declining to levels where simulation results had indicated bias in midpoint and random-point methods.

Sharing the costs of structural interventions: What can models tell us?

BACKGROUND: The global HIV response needs to both integrate with the broader health system and tackle the structural drivers of HIV. Cross-sectoral financing arrangements in which different sectors agree to co-finance structural interventions - have been put forward as promising frameworks to address these concerns. However, co-financing arrangements remain rare for HIV, and there is no consensus on how to distribute costs. METHODS: We use case studies to investigate how structural interventions can be incorporated within three quantitative decision-making frameworks. First, we consider cost-benefit analyses (CBA) using an opioid substitution therapy (OST) program in Armenia; second, we construct a theoretical example to illustrate the lessons game theory can shed on the co-financing arrangements implied by CBA; and third we consider allocative efficiency analyses using needle-syringe programs (NSPs) in Belarus. RESULTS: A cross-sectoral cost-benefit analysis of OST in Armenia demonstrates that the share of that should be funded by the HIV sector depends on the willingness to pay (WTP) to avert an HIV-related DALY, the long-term cost-benefit ratio, and the HIV risk reduction from OST. For reasonable parameter values, the HIV sector's share ranges between 0-48%. However, the Shapley value--a game-theoretic solution to cost attribution that ensures each sector gains as much or more as they would from acting independently--implies that the HIV sector's share may be higher. In Belarus, we find that the HIV sector should be willing to co-finance structural interventions that would increase the maximal attainable coverage of NSPs, with the contribution again depending on the WTP to avert an HIV-related DALY. CONCLUSION: Many interventions known to have cross-sectoral benefits have historically been funded from HIV budgets, but this may change in the future. The question of how to distribute the costs of structural interventions is critical, and frameworks that decision-makers use to inform resource allocations will need to take this into account.

Costs of providing HIV care and optimal allocation of HIV resources in Guyana.

INTRODUCTION: Great strides in responding to the HIV epidemic have led to improved access to and uptake of HIV services in Guyana, a lower-middle-income country with a generalized HIV epidemic. Despite efforts to scale up HIV treatment and adopt the test and start strategy, little is known about costs of HIV services across the care cascade. METHODS: We collected cost data from the national laboratory and nine selected treatment facilities in five of the country's ten Regions, and estimated the costs associated with HIV testing and services (HTS) and antiretroviral therapy (ART) from a provider perspective from January 1, 2016 to December 31, 2016. We then used the unit costs to construct four resource allocation scenarios. In the first two scenarios, we calculated how close Guyana would currently be to its 2020 targets if the allocation of funding across programs and regions over 2017-2020 had (a) remained unchanged from latest-reported levels, or (b) been optimally distributed to minimize incidence and deaths. In the next two, we estimated the resources that would have been required to meet the 2020 targets if those resources had been distributed (a) according to latest-reported patterns, or (b) optimally to minimize incidence and deaths. RESULTS: The mean cost per test was US$15 and the mean cost per person tested positive was US$796. The mean annual cost per of maintaining established adult and pediatric patients on ART were US$428 and US$410, respectively. The mean annual cost of maintaining virally suppressed patients was US$648. Cost variation across sites may suggest opportunities for improvements in efficiency, or may reflect variation in facility type and patient volume. There may also be scope for improvements in allocative efficiency; we estimated a 28% reduction in the total resources required to meet Guyana's 2020 targets if funds had been optimally distributed to minimize infections and deaths. CONCLUSIONS: We provide the first estimates of costs along the HIV cascade in the Caribbean and assessed efficiencies using novel context-specific data on the costs associated with diagnostic, treatment, and viral suppression. The findings call for better targeting of services, and efficient service delivery models and resource allocation, while scaling up HIV services to maximize investment impact.

Opportunities for improved HIV prevention and treatment through budget optimization in Eswatini.

INTRODUCTION: Eswatini achieved a 44% decrease in new HIV infections from 2014 to 2019 through substantial scale-up of testing and treatment. However, it still has one of the highest rates of HIV incidence in the world, with 14 infections per 1,000 adults 15-49 years estimated for 2017. The Government of Eswatini has called for an 85% reduction in new infections by 2023 over 2017 levels. To make further progress towards this target and to achieve maximum health gains, this study aims to model optimized investments of available HIV resources. METHODS: The Optima HIV model was applied to estimate the impact of efficiency strategies to accelerate prevention of HIV infections and HIV-related deaths. We estimated the number of infections and deaths that could be prevented by optimizing HIV investments. We optimize across HIV programs, then across service delivery modalities for voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC), HIV testing, and antiretroviral refill, as well as switching to a lower cost antiretroviral regimen. FINDINGS: Under an optimized budget, prioritising HIV testing for the general population followed by key preventative interventions may result in approximately 1,000 more new infections (2% more) being averted by 2023. More infections could be averted with further optimization between service delivery modalities across the HIV cascade. Scaling-up index and self-testing could lead to 100,000 more people getting tested for HIV (25% more tests) with the same budget. By prioritizing Fast-Track, community-based, and facility-based antiretroviral refill options, an estimated 30,000 more people could receive treatment, 17% more than baseline or US$5.5 million could be saved, 4% of the total budget. Finally, switching non-pregnant HIV-positive adults to a Dolutegravir-based antiretroviral therapy regimen and concentrating delivery of VMMC to existing fixed facilities over mobile clinics, US$4.5 million (7% of total budget) and US$6.6 million (10% of total budget) could be saved, respectively. SIGNIFICANCE: With a relatively short five-year timeframe, even under a substantially increased and optimized budget, Eswatini is unlikely to reach their ambitious national prevention target by 2023. However, by optimizing investment of the same budget towards highly cost-effective VMMC, testing, and treatment modalities, further reductions in HIV incidence and cost savings could be realized.

A model of the economic benefits of global hepatitis C elimination: an investment case.

Major gains in reducing the burden of hepatitis C are now possible because of the discovery of a cure. The prevention of premature deaths and increased workforce participation among people who are cured are likely to provide substantial indirect economic benefits. We developed an investment case for hepatitis C for the six WHO world regions, which, to our knowledge, is the first to consider both indirect and direct economic benefits in this context. Scaling up of testing and treatment to reach the 2030 WHO hepatitis C elimination targets was estimated to prevent 2·1 million (95% credible interval 1·3-3·2 million) hepatitis C-related deaths and 10 million (4-14 million) new hepatitis C virus infections globally between 2018 and 2030. This elimination strategy was estimated to cost US$41·5 billion (33·1-48·7 billion) in testing, treatment, and health care between 2018 and 2030 ($23·4 billion more than the status quo scenario of no testing or treatment scale up), with a global average of $885 (654-1189) per disability-adjusted life-year averted at 2030. Compared with the status quo scenario, the elimination scenario generated $46·1 billion (35·9-53·8 billion) in cumulative productivity gains by 2030. These indirect costs made elimination cost-saving by 2027, with a net economic benefit of $22·7 billion (17·1-27·9 billion) by 2030. This model shows that countries might be underestimating the true burden of hepatitis C and will benefit from investing in elimination.

Global hepatitis C elimination: an investment framework.

WHO has set global targets for the elimination of hepatitis B and hepatitis C as a public health threat by 2030. However, investment in elimination programmes remains low. To help drive political commitment and catalyse domestic and international financing, we have developed a global investment framework for the elimination of hepatitis B and hepatitis C. The global investment framework presented in this Health Policy paper outlines national and international activities that will enable reductions in hepatitis C incidence and mortality, and identifies potential sources of funding and tools to help countries build the economic case for investing in national elimination activities. The goal of this framework is to provide a way for countries, particularly those with minimal resources, to gain the substantial economic benefit and cost savings that come from investing in hepatitis C elimination.

Unveiling the Hidden Rules of Spherical Viruses Using Point Arrays.

Since its introduction, the Triangulation number has been the most successful and ubiquitous scheme for classifying spherical viruses. However, despite its many successes, it fails to describe the relative angular orientations of proteins, as well as their radial mass distribution within the capsid. It also fails to provide any critical insight into sites of stability, modifications or possible mutations. We show how classifying spherical viruses using icosahedral point arrays, introduced by Keef and Twarock, unveils new geometric rules and constraints for understanding virus stability and key locations for exterior and interior modifications. We present a modified fitness measure which classifies viruses in an unambiguous and rigorous manner, irrespective of local surface chemistry, steric hinderance, solvent accessibility or Triangulation number. We then use these point arrays to explain the immutable surface loops of bacteriophage MS2, the relative reactivity of surface lysine residues in CPMV and the non-quasi-equivalent flexibility of the HBV dimers. We then explain how point arrays can be used as a predictive tool for site-directed modifications of capsids. This success builds on our previous work showing that viruses place their protruding features along the great circles of the asymmetric unit, demonstrating that viruses indeed adhere to these geometric constraints.

Australia needs to increase testing to achieve hepatitis C elimination.

OBJECTIVES: To assess progress in Australia toward the 2030 WHO hepatitis C elimination targets two years after the introduction of highly effective direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatments. DESIGN: Analysis of quarterly data on government-subsidised hepatitis C RNA testing and hepatitis C treatment in Australia, January 2013 - June 2018. Changes in testing and treatment levels associated with DAA availability were assessed in an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) statistical model, and the impact by 2030 of different levels of testing and treatment were estimated using a mathematical model. MAJOR OUTCOME MEASURES: Hepatitis C prevalence among people who inject drugs; annual hepatitis C incidence relative to 2015 levels; projections for the hepatitis C care cascade in 2030. RESULTS: The mean annual number of treatments initiated for people with hepatitis C increased from 6747 during 2013-2015 (before the introduction of DAAs) to 28 022 during 2016-18; the mean annual number of diagnostic RNA tests increased from 17 385 to 23 819. If current trends in testing and treatment continue (ie, 2018 testing numbers are maintained but treatment numbers decline by 50%), it is projected that by 2030 only 72% of infected people would be treated (by 2025 all people diagnosed with hepatitis C would be treated). The incidence of hepatitis C in 2030 would be 59% lower than in 2015, well short of the WHO target of an 80% reduction. The identification and testing of people exposed to hepatitis C must be increased by at least 50% for Australia to reach the WHO elimination targets. CONCLUSION: Hepatitis C elimination programs in Australia should focus on increasing testing rates and linkage with care to maintain adequate levels of treatment.

Potential health gains in West and Central Africa through savings from lower cost HIV treatment.

OBJECTIVE: Prices of antiretroviral (ARV) drugs in lower income countries have decreased substantially over the past two decades, helping to facilitate greatly expanded access to antiretroviral therapy (ART). However, ART coverage in many parts of the world remains low. We investigate the extent of epidemiological benefits that might be expected if ARV drug prices decline further. DESIGN: A modeling study using data from seven countries in West and Central Africa (Cameroon, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Côte d'Ivoire, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, and Togo). METHODS: We investigated how the timing of ARV cost reductions could affect the impact and compared three different possible investment strategies: reinvesting in ART, reinvesting in the HIV response according to historical allocations, and reinvesting with the aim of minimizing HIV incidence and mortality. RESULTS: If ARV drug prices fell by 37% relative to 2018 levels (i.e. following continued trend declines), we calculate ART unit costs could decrease by ∼20% (holding other cost components constant). If this could be achieved by 2020 and the savings were reinvested into ART, we estimate that an additional 8% of HIV infections and 11% of HIV-related deaths could be averted over 2020-2030 across the seven countries. Slightly greater gains could be attained if funds were reinvested in ART in combination with primary prevention. Delays in the year of introduction of ARV price reductions would reduce the impact by about 1% per year. CONCLUSION: ARV price reductions could free up funds that - if strategically invested - would help countries move closer toward the elimination of HIV.

Population-level diagnosis and care cascade for chlamydia in Australia.

OBJECTIVES: Key strategies to control chlamydia include testing, treatment, partner management and re-testing. We developed a diagnosis and care cascade for chlamydia to highlight gaps in control strategies nationally and to inform efforts to optimise control programmes. METHODS: The Australian Chlamydia Cascade was organised into four steps: (1) annual number of new chlamydia infections (including re-infections); (2) annual number of chlamydia diagnoses; (3) annual number of diagnoses treated; (4) annual number of diagnoses followed by a re-test for chlamydia within 42-180 days of diagnosis. For 2016, we estimated the number of infections among young men and women aged 15-29 years in each of these steps using a combination of mathematical modelling, national notification data, sentinel surveillance data and previous research studies. RESULTS: Among young people in Australia, there were an estimated 248 580 (range, 240 690-256 470) new chlamydia infections in 2016 (96 470 in women; 152 100 in men) of which 70 164 were diagnosed (28.2% overall: women 43.4%, men 18.6%). Of the chlamydia infections diagnosed, 65 490 (range, 59 640-70 160) were treated (93.3% across all populations), but only 11 330 (range, 7660-16 285) diagnoses were followed by a re-test within 42-180 days (17.3% overall: women 20.6%, men 12.5%) of diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: The greatest gaps in the Australian Chlamydia Cascade for young people were in the diagnosis and re-testing steps, with 72% of infections undiagnosed and 83% of those diagnosed not re-tested: both were especially low among men. Treatment rates were also lower than recommended by guidelines. Our cascade highlights the need for enhanced strategies to improve treatment and re-testing coverage such as short message service reminders, point-of-care and postal test kits.