Prediction of outpatient visits and expenditure under the Universal Coverage Scheme in Bangkok using subscriber's attributes: A random forest analysis.

Objectives: There is limited evidence on methods to allocate budgets to healthcare providers under capitation schemes. The objective of this study was to construct and test models that predict outpatient visits and expenditure for each healthcare facility using subscriber data from the preceding year. Study design: We used the database of the Universal Coverage Scheme in Bangkok, Thailand that stores subscriber information and healthcare service utilization data. One-percent and ten-percent random samples of subscribers were selected as training and testing groups, respectively. Methods: Using data of the training group, we constructed a model using a random forest algorithm to predict outpatient visits and expenditure in 2017 from the 2016 data. The model was applied to the testing group and facility-level predicted number of visits and expenditure were compared with actual data. Results: The identically-structured training and testing groups consisted of 37,259 and 371,650 subscribers, respectively. Approximately 25% of subscribers utilized outpatient services. The R2 for models predicting facility-level utilization rate (visits/subscribers) and expenditure per subscriber in 2017 were 0.85 and 0.75, respectively. Conclusions: The model to predict outpatient visits and expenditure performed well. Such a prediction model may be useful for allocating budgets to healthcare facilities under capitation systems.

Age in months and birth order in infant nonfatal injuries: A retrospective cohort study.

Objective: To examine the age in months at which infants visited outpatient clinics or emergency rooms for the first time for nonfatal injuries and to identify risk factors for the occurrence of these injuries. Study design: Retrospective cohort study. Methods: We used a health insurance claims database in Japan. Infants born between April 2012 and December 2014 were identified and followed until 12 months of age. We identified their first visit to outpatient clinics or emergency rooms because of nonfatal injuries (wounds/fractures, foreign bodies, and burns). Cox regression analysis was used to examine the association of nonfatal injuries with infants' sex, birth order, and parental age. Results: We identified 46,431 eligible infants. Of these, 7606 (16.4%) were brought to an outpatient clinic or emergency room for nonfatal injuries within 12 months of birth. Of the 7,606, 21.7% were aged ≤4 months and 44.7% â€‹≤ â€‹7 months. First-born infants were more likely to have wounds/fractures and burns. Conclusion: One-fifth of first nonfatal infant injuries occurred within 4 months of age. Healthcare providers should provide early education about injury prevention, especially to caregivers of first-born infants.

Application of a CZT detector to in situ environmental radioactivity measurement in the Fukushima area.

Instead of conventional Ge semiconductor detectors and NaI(Tl) scintillation spectrometers, an application of a CdZnTe semiconductor (CZT) whose crystal has the dimension of 1 cm cubic to the in situ environmental radioactivity measurement was attempted in deeply affected areas in Fukushima region. Results of deposition density on soil for (134)Cs/(137)Cs obtained seemed consistent, comparing obtained results with those measured by the Japanese government.

Treatment options and outcomes of hospitalised tuberculosis patients: a nationwide study.

SETTING: Although standardised multidrug treatments exist, mortality among hospitalised tuberculosis (TB) patients is high. OBJECTIVE: To characterise TB patients requiring acute hospital care and identify factors associated with in-hospital mortality. DESIGN: Using a Japanese national database of acute-care hospitals, we identified patients with sputum smear-positive pulmonary TB who were discharged (both deceased and alive) between July 2010 and March 2013. Demographic characteristics, comorbidity, procedures and treatments were examined. We performed a multivariable logistic regression analysis to identify risk factors for in-hospital mortality. RESULTS: Of 877 treated patients (566 males, mean age 74.5 years) identified, 152 (17.3%) died. A standard four-drug regimen of isoniazid (INH), rifampicin (RMP), ethambutol (EMB) and pyrazinamide was given to 279 (31.8%) patients, and INH, RMP and EMB to 335 (38.2%) patients. Multivariable analysis showed that the three-drug regimen was significantly associated with higher rates of in-hospital mortality (OR 1.87, 95%CI 1.07-3.27, P = 0.028). Other factors associated with in-hospital death were age, male sex, smoking habit, emergency admission, dementia and severe respiratory condition. CONCLUSION: The risk factors for in-hospital death identified include the use of the three-drug regimen. Treatment choice could influence the outcome of hospitalised TB patients.

Down-regulated expression of monocyte/macrophage major histocompatibility complex receptors in human and mouse monocytes by expression of their ligands.

Mouse monocyte/macrophage major histocompatibility complex (MHC) receptor 1 (MMR1; or MMR2) specific for H-2D(d) (or H-2K(d) ) molecules is expressed on monocytes from non-H-2D(d) (or non-H-2K(d) ), but not those from H-2D(d) (or H-2K(d) ), inbred mice. The MMR1 and/or MMR2 is essential for the rejection of H-2D(d) - and/or H-2K(d) -transgenic mouse skin onto C57BL/6 (H-2D(b) K(b) ) mice. Recently, we found that human leucocyte antigen (HLA)-B44 was the sole ligand of human MMR1 using microbeads that had been conjugated with 80 types of HLA class I molecules covering 94·2% (or 99·4%) and 92·4% (or 96·2%) of HLA-A and B molecules of Native Americans (or Japanese), respectively. In the present study, we also explored the ligand specificity of human MMR2 using microbeads. Microbeads coated with HLA-A32, HLA-B13 or HLA-B62 antigens bound specifically to human embryonic kidney (HEK)293T or EL-4 cells expressing human MMR2 and to the solubilized MMR2-green fluorescent protein (GFP) fusion protein; and MMR2(+) monocytes from a volunteer bound HLA-B62 molecules with a Kd of 8·7 × 10(-9) M, implying a three times down-regulation of MMR2 expression by the ligand expression. H-2K(d) (or H-2D(d) ) transgene into C57BL/6 mice down-regulated not only MMR2 (or MMR1) but also MMR1 (or MMR2) expression, leading to further down-regulation of MMR expression. In fact, monocytes from two (i.e. MMR1(+) /MMR2(+) and MMR1(-) /MMR2(-) ) volunteers bound seven to nine types of microbeads among 80, indicating ≤ 10 types of MMR expression on monocytes. The physiological role of constitutive MMRs on monocytes possibly towards allogeneic (e.g. fetal) cells in the blood appears to be distinct from that of inducible MMRs on macrophages toward allografts in tissue.

Influence of preoperative chemotherapy for advanced thoracic oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma on perioperative complications.

BACKGROUND: The Japan Clinical Oncology Group (JCOG) 9907 trial has changed the standard of care for advanced thoracic oesophageal cancer in Japan from postoperative chemotherapy to preoperative chemotherapy. The impact of preoperative chemotherapy on the risk of developing postoperative complications remains controversial. This article reports the safety analysis of JCOG9907, focusing on risk factors for postoperative complications. METHODS: Patients with potentially resectable advanced thoracic oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma were randomized to either postoperative or preoperative chemotherapy followed by transthoracic oesophagectomy with D2-3 lymphadenectomy. Chemotherapy consisted of two cycles of cisplatin and 5-fluorouracil. Clinical baseline data, intraoperative complications, postoperative complications and in-hospital mortality, collected on the case report forms in a predetermined format, were analysed. Univariable and multivariable analyses were used to explore the risk of postoperative complications in relation to treatment group, age, sex, tumour depth, nodal metastasis, stage and location. RESULTS: Of 330 patients randomized, 166 were assigned to receive postoperative chemotherapy and 164 preoperative chemotherapy; 162 and 154 patients respectively underwent surgery. The incidence of intraoperative complications, postoperative complications and in-hospital mortality was similarly low in both groups. Multivariable analysis showed that age, sex and tumour location were independently associated with an increase in postoperative complications, but preoperative chemotherapy was not. CONCLUSION: Preoperative chemotherapy does not increase the risk of complications or hospital mortality after surgery for advanced thoracic oesophageal cancer.

Outcomes of multimodality therapy for stage IVB esophageal cancer with distant organ metastasis (M1-Org).

Esophageal cancer patients with distant organ metastasis have usually been treated only to palliate symptoms without multimodality therapy. The current study evaluates the role of multimodality therapy in esophageal squamous cell cancer patients with distant organ metastasis. Between February 1988 and January 2007, 80 esophageal squamous cell cancer patients with distant organ metastases were treated at our institution. Multimodality therapy was performed in 58 patients: 43 patients received chemoradiotherapy, 13 underwent surgery followed by chemotherapy and/or radiation therapy, and two received chemotherapy or chemoradiotherapy followed by surgery. Thirteen patients received single-modality therapy; chemotherapy, radiotherapy, or surgery alone. The remaining nine patients received best supportive care alone. The metastatic organ was the liver (n= 40), the lungs (n= 33), bone (n= 10), and other (n= 6). Nine patients had metastasis in two organs. There was no difference in the median survival among the sites of organ metastasis, lung, liver, or bone (P= 0.8786). The survival of patients treated with multimodality therapy was significantly better than that of the patients who received single-modality therapy or best supportive care alone (P < 0.0001). In patients treated with multimodallity therapy, there was no difference in survival for patients treated with surgery compared with patients treated without surgery (P= 0.1291). This retrospective study involves an inevitable issue of patient selection bias. However, these results suggested that multimodality therapy could improve survival of the esophageal squamous cell cancer patients with distant organ metastasis.

Surgical management for small cell carcinoma of the esophagus.

Esophageal small cell carcinoma (SmCC) has been regarded as a rare and aggressive tumor with early metastasis. The optimal treatment has not yet been established, and the role of surgery has remained controversial. In this retrospective study, we report seven cases studies of SmCC of the esophagus and analyze the clinical outcomes after surgery. Between 1986 and 2007, there were seven patients with esophageal SmCC treated surgically in our institution. All the patients with clinically limited disease underwent transthoracic esophagectomy with lymphadenectomy. Lymph node involvement was found in all cases irrespective of the depth of tumor invasion. Three of the seven patients were diagnosed as having an extensive disease on pathological examination after esophagectomy. Five patients received postoperative chemotherapy. Two patients are alive with no recurrence at 16 months and at 45 months after surgery. Another one without chemotherapy survived 93 months and died of another disease. The remaining four patients died of recurrent disease or another disease. The median overall survival to date of these patients was 16 months (range 12-93 months). Esophagectomy with lymphadenectomy resulted in a relatively better survival in some patients with esophageal SmCC. We concluded that surgery may be helpful as part of multimodality treatment in selected patients with esophageal SmCC.

A phase I trial of cytotoxic T-lymphocyte precursor-oriented peptide vaccines for colorectal carcinoma patients.

In most protocols of peptide-based vaccination, no consideration has been paid to whether or not peptide-specific cytotoxic T-lymphocyte (CTL) precursors are pre-existent in cancer patients. Initiation of immune boosting through vaccination is better than that of immune priming to induce prompt and strong immunity. In this study, 10 human histocompatibility leukocyte antigen-A24(+) patients with advanced colorectal carcinomas were treated with up to four peptides that had been positive for pre-vaccination measurement of peptide-specific CTL precursors in the circulation (CTL precursor-oriented peptide vaccine). No severe adverse effect was observed, although local pain and fever of grade I or II were observed. Post-vaccination peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) from five patients demonstrated an increased peptide-specific immune response to the peptides. Increased CTL response to cancer cells was detected in post-vaccination PBMCs of five patients. Antipeptide immunoglobulin G became detectable in post-vaccination sera of seven patients. Three patients developed a positive delayed-type hypersensitivity response to at least one of the peptides administrated. One patient was found to have a partial response; another had a stable disease, sustained through 6 months. These results encourage further development of CTL precursor-oriented vaccine for colorectal cancer patients.

Esophageal perforation caused by a press through pack.

A 73-year-old woman complaining of sudden hoarseness visited our hospital 17 days after the onset. The upper gastrointestinal contrast study showed a shallow ulcer crater with moderate bulging in the upper thoracic esophagus. Endoscope and computed tomography revealed an esophageal foreign body, a Press Through Pack (PTP), in the esophageal ulcer. The PTP could be removed endoscopically. Two months after extraction of the PTP, the patient was taking normal food orally and was discharged. The esophageal perforation, looking like a diverticle, was still present more than 1 year after the onset.

Detection of peptide-specific CTL-precursors in peripheral blood lymphocytes of cancer patients.

Development of therapeutic vaccines is one of the major areas of tumour immunotherapy today. However, clinical trials of peptide-based cancer vaccines have rarely resulted in tumour regression. This failure might be due to an insufficient induction of cytotoxic T lymphocytes in the current regimes, in which cytotoxic T lymphocytes-precursors in pre-vaccination peripheral blood mononuclear cells are not measured. Initiation of immune-boosting through vaccination could be better than that of immune-priming with regard to induction of prompt and strong immunity. If this is also the case for therapeutic vaccines, pre-vaccination measurement of peptide-specific cytotoxic T lymphocytes-precursors will be important. In the present study, we investigated whether cytotoxic T lymphocytes-precursors reacting to 28 kinds of peptides of vaccine candidates (13 and 15 peptides for HLA-A24(+) and HLA-A2(+) patients, respectively) were detectable in pre-vaccination peripheral blood mononuclear cells of 80 cancer patients. Peptide-specific cytotoxic T lymphocytes-precursors were found to be detectable in peripheral blood mononuclear cells of the majority of cancer patients (57 out of 80 cases, 71%). The mean numbers of positive peptides were 2.0 peptides per positive case. Peripheral blood mononuclear cells incubated with positive peptides, not with negative peptides, showed significant levels of HLA-class-I-restricted cytotoxicity to cancer cells. The profiles of positive peptides entirely varied among patients, and were not influenced by the cancer origin. These results may provide a scientific basis for the development of a new approach to cancer immunotherapy, e.g.) cytotoxic T lymphocytes-precursor-oriented peptide vaccine.

Induction of cellular immune responses to tumor cells and peptides in colorectal cancer patients by vaccination with SART3 peptides.

The tumor-rejection antigen SART3 possesses two antigenic epitopes (SART3(109-118) and SART3(315-323)) capable of inducing HLA-A24-restricted and tumor-specific CTLs. To determine its safety and ability to generate antitumor immune responses, 12 patients with advanced colorectal cancer were administered s.c. vaccinations of these peptides. No severe adverse events were associated with the vaccinations. Significant levels of increased cellular immune responses to both HLA-A24+ colon cancer cells and the vaccinated peptide were observed in the postvaccination peripheral blood mononuclear cells in 7 of 11 and 7 of 10 patients tested, respectively, and the higher responses were observed in those patients vaccinated with the highest dose (3 mg/injection) of the peptides. These results encourage further development of SART3 peptide vaccine for colorectal cancer patients.

Phase II evaluation of protracted infusion of cisplatin and 5-fluorouracil in advanced squamous cell carcinoma of the esophagus: a Japan Esophageal Oncology Group (JEOG) Trial (JCOG9407).

BACKGROUND: Surgery for advanced esophageal carcinoma has its limits as regards aggressiveness and therapeutic effect, therefore effective multimodality treatment is required to obtain better survival. The objective of this study was to evaluate whether daily continuous infusion of CDDP could achieve a higher clinical response rate with less toxicity than its drip infusion in the previous phase II study that we had conducted. METHODS: Patients with primary extensive or relapsed esophageal carcinoma after esophagectomy, which had distant organ metastasis and histologically proven SCC, were eligible for this study. A dose of 20 mg/m(2) of cisplatin and 800 mg/m(2) of 5-fluorouracil was given by continuous infusion for 24 h on days 1-5. This treatment was repeated every 4 weeks for up to four cycles. A total of 36 men and six women with a median age of 64 (range 39-75) years were registered and 36 patients were eligible. RESULTS: The overall response rate of the registered patients was 33.3% (12/36) and the median response duration was 175 days. Median survival time was 201.5 days and the 1-year survival rate was 27.8%. Change from bolus to continuous infusion of cisplatin affected neither the type nor the degree of toxicity. CONCLUSION: Daily continuous infusion of cisplatin was not associated with higher response or lower toxicity than those seen with the high-dose bolus or multibolus treatment regimens. We conclude that this regimen in this setting is not worthy of further phase III trials. JEOG is now evaluating other drug combination regimens.

[Experimental gene therapy using p21/WAF1 gene in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma--adenovirus infection and gene gun technology].

p21/WAF1 (p21) inhibits the activity of the cyclin/cdk complex and controls the G1 to S cell phase transition. In the present study, we used a recombinant adenoviral approach and gene gun technology to introduce p21 into esophageal cancer cells in order to assess the effect of p21 on cell growth. Infection with the p21 adenovirus (AdV) using gene gun technology resulted in inhibition of TE9 and KE3 cell growth. The levels of involucrin, which is a marker of squamous epithelium differentiation, markedly increased at 48 h and 72 h after p21 AdV infection in TE9 cells. These results indicate that p21 plays an important role in esophageal cancer cell proliferation. Overexpression of the p21 gene can inhibit cell growth and induce differentiation in esophageal cancer cells. p21 gene therapy may prove beneficial in the treatment of esophageal cancer.

[Cellular immunotherapy for local recurrence of rectal cancer after surgery by activated lymphocyte administration--a case report].

UNLABELLED: Intrapelvic recurrence of the rectal cancer after surgery is a challenging status. We report here a case of intrapelvic tumor due to the recurrence of rectal cancer postoperatively treated by adoptive cellular immunotherapy. CASE REPORT: A 57-year-old Japanese man with an intrapelvic tumor showing bone destruction due to the recurrence of rectal cancer after abdomino-peritoneal resection was diagnosed by CT scan. He consented to simultaneous adaptive cellular immunotherapy for local recurrent lesions by administration of the activated lymphocytes. The tumor sample used for the activation of PBMC was obtained by operation. Tumor cells were prepared by mincing and enzymatic digestion of the tumor sample, and they were irradiated with a dosage of 50 Gy. Peripheral blood samples were collected from the same patient. PBMC for about 2 weeks to prepare cells for treatment were obtained from the blood sample. One million PBMC were incubated in 2 ml of the culture medium containing 10(5) irradiated autologous tumor cells and 100 IU/ml recombinant IL-2. The activated PBMCs, as autologous cancer specific killer T cells, were administered by direct regional injection (from 2 million to 8 x 10(7) cells). These injections were given repeatedly about once a week at 2-week intervals for three months. The surface phenotypes of activated PBMC or PBMC were tested by two color immunostaining technique with anti-CD3, -CD4, -CD8 and also anti-CD16, -CD25 or -CD56. Natural killer cell activity was also investigated. The clinical outcome was evaluated by CT scan and serum CEA levels. In the cultured activated PBMCs, NK cell activity was 40%, both CD3 and CD4 positive cells was 30%, and both CD3 and CD8 positive cells was 48%. There were far more CD8 cells than CD4 cells. In the PBMC, NK cell activity had increased, both CD3 and CD4 positive cells had decreased and both CD3 and CD8 positive cells had increased. There were then predominantly more CD8 cells than CD4 cells by repeated administration of the cultured activated PBMCs. The only adverse effect was grade 2 fever. Serum CEA levels fell from 293.7 ng/ml to 160 ng/ml, but the tumor size on the CT scan was slightly increased except for the directly administered region. We have been observing him as an outpatient.

Prediction of sensitivity of esophageal tumors to adjuvant chemotherapy by cDNA microarray analysis of gene-expression profiles.

We applied cDNA microarray analyses of 9216 genes to establish a genetic method for predicting the outcome of adjuvant chemotherapy to esophageal cancers. We analyzed expression profiles of 20 esophageal cancer tissues from patients who were treated with the same adjuvant chemotherapy after removal of tumor by operation, and we attempted to find genes associated with the duration of survival after surgery. By comparing expression profiles of those cancer tissues, we identified by statistical analysis 52 genes that were likely to be correlated with prognosis and possibly with sensitivity/resistance to the anticancer drugs. We also developed a drug response score based on the differential expression of these genes, and we found a significant correlation between the drug response score and individual patients' prognoses. Our results indicated that this scoring system, based on microarray analysis of selected genes, is likely to have great potential for predicting the prognosis of individual cancer patients with the adjuvant chemotherapy.

Preoperative evaluation of cardiopulmonary reserve with the use of expired gas analysis during exercise testing in patients with squamous cell carcinoma of the thoracic esophagus.

OBJECTIVE: We evaluated the usefulness of analyzing expired gas during exercise testing for the prediction of postoperative cardiopulmonary complications in patients with esophageal carcinoma. BACKGROUND DATA: Radical esophagectomy with 3-field lymphadenectomy is performed in patients with thoracic esophageal carcinoma but has a high risk of postoperative complications. To reduce the surgical risk, we performed preoperative risk analysis using 8 factors. Although hospital mortality was decreased when this risk analysis was used, severe cardiopulmonary complications still occurred. METHODS: The study group consisted of 91 patients who had undergone curative esophagectomy with 3-field lymphadenectomy. The maximum oxygen uptake, anaerobic threshold, vital capacity, percent vital capacity, forced expiratory volume in 1 second, percent forced expiratory volume, V.(25)/HT, forced expired flow at 75% of forced vital capacity to height ratio (FEF(75%)/HT), forced expired flow at 50% to 75% of forced vital capacity ratio (FEF(50%)/FEF(75%)), percent diffusion capacity for carbon monoxide, and arterial oxygen tension were measured. Patients were divided into 2 groups on the basis of the presence or absence of postoperative cardiopulmonary complications. RESULTS: Only the maximum oxygen uptake was significantly different between the 2 groups. All patients were grouped according to the value of the maximum oxygen uptake, and the occurrence of postoperative cardiopulmonary complications was calculated for each group. A cardiopulmonary complication rate of 86% was found for patients with a maximum oxygen uptake of less than 699 mL. min(-1). m(-2); for those with a value of 700 to 799 mL. min(-1). m(-2), the complication rate was 44%. CONCLUSIONS: The maximum oxygen uptake obtained by expired gas analysis during exercise testing correlates with the postoperative cardiopulmonary complication rate. On the basis of these results, esophagectomy with 3-field lymphadenectomy can be safely performed in patients with a maximum oxygen uptake of at least 800 mL. min(-1). m(-2).

Optimum treatment strategy for superficial esophageal cancer: endoscopic mucosal resection versus radical esophagectomy.

This study was designed to determine the optimum treatment for a superficial esophageal cancer involving the mucosal or submucosal layer of the esophagus. The subjects were 150 patients with a superficial esophageal cancer who underwent endoscopic mucosal resection (EMR) or esophagectomy in Kurume University Hospital from 1981 to 1997. The mortality and morbidity rates, survival rate, and recurrence rate were retrospectively compared for (1) 35 patients who underwent EMR and 37 patients who underwent esophagectomy for a mucosal esophageal cancer and (2) 45 patients who underwent extended radical esophagectomy and 33 patients who underwent less radical esophagectomy for a submucosal esophageal cancer. Among the 72 patients with a mucosal cancer, lymph node metastasis/recurrence was observed in only one (1%); whereas of 78 patients with a submucosal cancer it was observed in 30 (38%). Among patients with a mucosal cancer the mortality and morbidity rates after EMR were lower than for those after esophagectomy. The survival rate after EMR was the same as that after esophagectomy. No recurrence was observed after either treatment modality. Among the patients with a submucosal cancer, the survival rate was higher and the recurrence rate lower after extended radical esophagectomy; than after less radical esophagectomy; the mortality and morbidity rates after extended radical esophagectomy were the same as those after less radical esophagectomy. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that the treatment modality (EMR versus esophagectomy) did not influence the survival of patients with a mucosal esophageal cancer, whereas it strongly influenced the survival of patients with a submucosal esophageal cancer. We concluded that EMR was the mainstay of treatment for a mucosal esophageal cancer, and extended radical esophagectomy was the mainstay of treatment for a submucosal esophageal cancer.

Recognition of the Lck tyrosine kinase as a tumor antigen by cytotoxic T lymphocytes of cancer patients with distant metastases.

The Lck protein (p56(lck)), a src family tyrosine kinase that is essential for T cell development and function, is aberrantly expressed in metastatic colon cancers. p56(lck) seems to facilitate the malignant transformation of epithelial cells through initiation of anchorage-independent proliferation. We demonstrate that the lck gene encodes antigenic epitopes recognized by the HLA class I-restricted and tumor-specific CTL of metastatic cancer patients. Lck peptides augmented CTL activity in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) of colon and other epithelial cancer patients with distant metastases, but not those without distant metastases. CTL precursors recognizing the Lck peptide were identified in freshly prepared PBMC of patients with distant metastases, and their frequency was significantly augmented by stimulation with the peptide. Thus, Lck peptides could be useful in developing a specific immunotherapy for cancer patients with distant metastases.