RESUMO
PURPOSE: The Clinical Treatment Score post-5 years (CTS5) is an easy-to-use tool estimating the late distant recurrence (LDR) risk in patients with hormone receptor-positive breast cancer after 5 years of endocrine therapy (ET). Apart from evaluating the prognostic value and calibration accuracy of CTS5, the aim of this study is to clarify if this score is able to identify patients at higher risk for LDR who will benefit from extended ET. METHODS: Prognostic power, calibration, and predictive value of the CTS5 was tested in patients of the prospective ABCSG-06 and -06a trials (n = 1254 and 860 patients, respectively). Time to LDR was analyzed with Cox regression models. RESULTS: Higher rates of LDR in the years five to ten were observed in high- and intermediate-risk patients compared to low-risk patients (HR 4.02, 95%CI 2.26-7.15, p < 0.001 and HR 1.93, 95%CI 1.05-3.56, p = 0.035). An increasing continuous CTS5 was associated with increasing LDR risk (HR 2.23, 95% CI 1.74-2.85, p < 0.001). Miscalibration of CTS5 in high-risk patients could be observed. Although not reaching significance, high-risk patients benefitted the most from prolonged ET with an absolute reduction of the estimated 5-year LDR of - 6.1% (95%CI - 14.4 to 2.3). CONCLUSION: The CTS5 is a reliable prognostic tool that is well calibrated in the lower and intermediate risk groups with a substantial difference of expected versus observed LDR rates in high-risk patients. While a numerical trend in favoring prolonged ET for patients with a higher CTS5 was found, a significantly predictive value for the score could not be confirmed. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: ABCSG-06 trial (NCT00309491), ABCSG-06A7 1033AU/0001 (NCT00300508).
