Forecast accuracy of demand for registered nurses and its determinants in South Korea.

BACKGROUND: Despite the significance of demand forecasting accuracy for the registered nurse (RN) workforce, few studies have evaluated past forecasts. PURPOSE: This paper examined the ex post accuracy of past forecasting studies focusing on RN demand and explored its determinants on the accuracy of demand forecasts. METHODS: Data were collected by systematically reviewing national reports or articles on RN demand forecasts. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was measured for forecasting error by comparing the forecast with the actual demand (employed RNs). Nonparametric tests, the Mann‒Whitney test, and the Kruskal‒Wallis test were used to analyze the differences in the MAPE according to the variables, which are methodological and researcher factors. RESULTS: A total of 105 forecast horizons and 196 forecasts were analyzed. The average MAPE of the total forecast horizon was 34.8%. Among the methodological factors, the most common determinant affecting forecast accuracy was the RN productivity assumption. The longer the length of the forecast horizon was, the greater the MAPE was. The longer the length of the data period was, the greater the MAPE was. Moreover, there was no significant difference among the researchers' factors. CONCLUSIONS: To improve demand forecast accuracy, future studies need to accurately measure RN workload and productivity in a manner consistent with the real world.

A City Shared Bike Dispatch Approach Based on Temporal Graph Convolutional Network and Genetic Algorithm.

Public transportation scheduling aims to optimize the allocation of resources, enhance efficiency, and increase passenger satisfaction, all of which are crucial for building a sustainable urban transportation system. As a complement to public transportation, bike-sharing systems provide users with a solution for the last mile of travel, compensating for the lack of flexibility in public transportation and helping to improve its utilization rate. Due to the characteristics of shared bikes, including peak usage periods in the morning and evening and significant demand fluctuations across different areas, optimizing shared bike dispatch can better meet user needs, reduce vehicle vacancy rates, and increase operating revenue. To address this issue, this article proposes a comprehensive decision-making approach for spatiotemporal demand prediction and bike dispatch optimization. For demand prediction, we design a T-GCN (Temporal Graph Convolutional Network)-based bike demand prediction model. In terms of dispatch optimization, we consider factors such as dispatch capacity, distance restrictions, and dispatch costs, and design an optimization solution based on genetic algorithms. Finally, we validate the approach using shared bike operating data and show that the T-GCN can effectively predict the short-term demand for shared bikes. Meanwhile, the optimization model based on genetic algorithms provides a complete dispatch solution, verifying the model's effectiveness. The shared bike dispatch approach proposed in this paper combines demand prediction with resource scheduling. This scheme can also be extended to other transportation scheduling problems with uncertain demand, such as store replenishment delivery and intercity inventory dispatch.

Exploration on human resource management and prediction model of data-driven information security in Internet of Things.

The advent of the Internet of Things (IoT) has accelerated the pace of economic development across all sectors. However, it has also brought significant challenges to traditional human resource management, revealing an increasing number of problems and making it unable to meet the needs of contemporary enterprise management. The IoT has brought numerous conveniences to human society, but it has also led to security issues in communication networks. To ensure the security of these networks, it is necessary to integrate data-driven technologies to address this issue. In response to the current state of human resource management, this paper proposes the application of IoT technology in enterprise human resource management and combines it with radial basis function neural networks to construct a model for predicting enterprise human resource needs. The model was also experimentally analyzed. The results show that under this algorithm, the average prediction accuracy for the number of employees over five years is 90.2 %, and the average prediction accuracy for sales revenue is 93.9 %. These data indicate that the prediction accuracy of the model under this study's algorithm has significantly improved. This paper also conducted evaluation experiments on a wireless communication network security risk prediction model. The average prediction accuracy of four tests is 91.21 %, indicating that the model has high prediction accuracy. By introducing data-driven technology and IoT applications, this study provides new solutions for human resource management and communication network security, promoting technological innovation in the fields of traditional human resource management and information security management. The research not only improves the accuracy of the prediction models but also provides strong support for decision-making and risk management in related fields, demonstrating the great potential of big data and artificial intelligence technology in the future of enterprise management and security.

Fuzzy Clustering-Based Deep Learning for Short-Term Load Forecasting in Power Grid Systems Using Time-Varying and Time-Invariant Features.

Accurate short-term load forecasting (STLF) is essential for power grid systems to ensure reliability, security and cost efficiency. Thanks to advanced smart sensor technologies, time-series data related to power load can be captured for STLF. Recent research shows that deep neural networks (DNNs) are capable of achieving accurate STLP since they are effective in predicting nonlinear and complicated time-series data. To perform STLP, existing DNNs use time-varying dynamics of either past load consumption or past power correlated features such as weather, meteorology or date. However, the existing DNN approaches do not use the time-invariant features of users, such as building spaces, ages, isolation material, number of building floors or building purposes, to enhance STLF. In fact, those time-invariant features are correlated to user load consumption. Integrating time-invariant features enhances STLF. In this paper, a fuzzy clustering-based DNN is proposed by using both time-varying and time-invariant features to perform STLF. The fuzzy clustering first groups users with similar time-invariant behaviours. DNN models are then developed using past time-varying features. Since the time-invariant features have already been learned by the fuzzy clustering, the DNN model does not need to learn the time-invariant features; therefore, a simpler DNN model can be generated. In addition, the DNN model only learns the time-varying features of users in the same cluster; a more effective learning can be performed by the DNN and more accurate predictions can be achieved. The performance of the proposed fuzzy clustering-based DNN is evaluated by performing STLF, where both time-varying features and time-invariant features are included. Experimental results show that the proposed fuzzy clustering-based DNN outperforms the commonly used long short-term memory networks and convolution neural networks.

Deep learning-based forecasting of electricity consumption.

Building energy management systems (BEMS) are integrated computerized systems that track and manage the energy use of many pieces of building-related machinery and equipment, including lighting, power systems, and HVAC systems. Modern buildings must have BEMSs in order to reduce energy usage while maintaining comfort. Not only for energy-saving purposes, BEMS is essential in enhancing the quality of the energy supply, which helps to gain a better understanding of how energy is used and the building's energy usage. When the dynamics of a building's energy usage are known, it is possible to determine which changes are most likely to reduce consumption. Numerous connected devices, operating modes, energy usage, and environmental factors can all be monitored and controlled in real-time using BEMS. Changing operating times and setting points to maximize comfort and efficiency is made simple by this. In this paper, we have primarily addressed the two significant issues of model optimization and electricity consumption forecasts. Future forecasting has been done using the LSTM based time series approach. We generated data on the amount of electricity consumed by a hospital facility and tested our suggested methodologies on actual data. The findings gained demonstrated that the strategies were successful with both types of data. On actual data, the trend in electricity consumption can be accurately predicted. Several model optimizers enhanced the suggested methods' performance as well. Our objective function gain accuracy result of 95%.

Forecasting demand for blood products: Towards inventory management of a perishable product.

Forecasting consumption of blood products can reduce their order frequency by 60% and inventory level by 40%. This also prevents shortage by balancing demand and supply. The study aimed to establish a "Simple Average with Mean Annual Increment" (SAMAI) method of time series forecasting and to compare its results with those of ARIMA, ratio to trend, and simple average to forecast demand of blood products. Monthly demand data of blood component from January 2017 to December 2022 (data set I) was used for creating a forecasting model. To avoid the effect of COVID19 pandemic instead of actual data of year 2020 and 2021, average monthly values of previous three years were used (data set II). The data from January to July 2023 were used as testing data set. To assess the fitness of model MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) was used. By SAMAI method MAPE were 18.82%, 13.392%, 14.516% and 27.637% respectively for of blood donation, blood issue, RDP issue and FFP issue for data set I. By Simple Average method MAPE were 20.05%, 12.09%, 29.06% and 34.85%, respectably. By Ratio-to-Trend method MAPE were 21.08%, 21.65%, 25.62% and 39.95% respectively. By SARIMA method MAPE were 12.99%, 19.59%, 37.15% and 31.94% respectively. The average MAPE was lower in data set II by all tested method and overall MAPE was lower by SAMAI method. The SAMAI method is simple and easy to perform. It can be used in the forecasting of blood components demand in medical institution without knowledge of advanced statistics.

Addressing energy challenges in Iraq: Forecasting power supply and demand using artificial intelligence models.

The global surge in energy demand, driven by technological advances and population growth, underscores the critical need for effective management of electricity supply and demand. In certain developing nations, a significant challenge arises because the energy demand of their population exceeds their capacity to generate, as is the case in Iraq. This study focuses on energy forecasting in Iraq, using a previously unstudied dataset from 2019 to 2021, sourced from the Iraqi Ministry of Electricity. The study employs a diverse set of advanced forecasting models, including Linear Regression, XGBoost, Random Forest, Long Short-Term Memory, Temporal Convolutional Networks, and Multi-Layer Perceptron, evaluating their performance across four distinct forecast horizons (24, 48, 72, and 168 hours ahead). Key findings reveal that Linear Regression is a consistent top performer in demand forecasting, while XGBoost excels in supply forecasting. Statistical analysis detects differences in models performances for both datasets, although no significant differences are found in pairwise comparisons for the supply dataset. This study emphasizes the importance of accurate energy forecasting for energy security, resource allocation, and policy-making in Iraq. It provides tools for decision-makers to address energy challenges, mitigate power shortages, and stimulate economic growth. It also encourages innovative forecasting methods, the use of external variables like weather and economic data, and region-specific models tailored to Iraq's energy landscape. The research contributes valuable insights into the dynamics of electricity supply and demand in Iraq and offers performance evaluations for better energy planning and management, ultimately promoting sustainable development and improving the quality of life for the Iraqi population.

Machine learning solutions for renewable energy systems: Applications, challenges, limitations, and future directions.

The Paris Agreement, a landmark international treaty signed in 2016 to limit global warming to 2°C, has urged researchers to explore various strategies for achieving its ambitious goals. While Renewable Energy (RE) innovation holds promise, it alone may not be sufficient as critical deadlines approach. This field of research presents numerous challenges, foremost among them being the costliness of materials involved. However, emerging advancements in Machine Learning (ML) technologies provide a glimmer of hope; these sophisticated algorithms can accurately predict the output of energy systems without relying on physical resources and instead leverage available data from diverse energy platforms that have emerged over recent decades. The primary objective of this paper is to comprehensively explore various ML techniques and algorithms in the context of Renewable Energy Systems (RES). The investigation will address several vital inquiries, including identifying and evaluating existing RE technologies, assessing their potential for further advancement, and thoroughly analyzing the challenges and limitations associated with their deployment and testing. Furthermore, this research examines how ML can effectively overcome these obstacles by enhancing RES performance. By identifying future research opportunities and outlining potential directions for improvement, this work seeks to contribute to developing environmentally sustainable energy systems.

Electricity demand analysis and forecasting: The case of GADA special economic zone.

Ethiopia is a country in East Africa experiencing significant economic growth in recent years, with an increasing electricity demand. Ensuring sustainable and efficient energy for newly developed industries and economic zones is crucial. In this study, a 15-year electric power demand forecast for the new economic zone under construction is conducted. The electrical power demand forecast is done for the year 2025-2040 by using bottom-up forecasting approach for three different scenarios. Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) system software is used to analyze residential, industrial, and general business sector electric power demand. The analysis of the assessed scenario shows that the economic zone's electric power demand increases by 52.2 % from the base year 2025-2040 for the baseline scenario, due to anticipated rapid urbanization, growth in population, economic expansion, and anticipated political stability. Compared to the baseline scenario, the total power demand shows a growth of 68 % from the forecast year (2025) to 2040 for the aggressive scenario, which ensures sustainable and efficient energy options that can draw businesses from both domestic and international baselines. In contrast, the total power demand in the conservative scenario shows a growth of 30.3 % from the base year (2025) to 2040. This reduction in demand compared to the two scenarios indicates a reflection of how much electricity power demand could be if certain development conditions failed to be realized in the economy. In general, both results show a rapid increase in power demand compared to the base year. To address this increasing demand, a supply-side demand analysis can be done for reference and aggressive scenarios. The analysis result indicated that by 2040, supply-side demand from the national grid will increase by 93.5 % and 175.9 % for reference and aggressive scenarios, respectively, compared to the base year 2025 demand. Due to the huge gap between the supply and demand in the country, onsite off-grid generation can be considered to cover 25 % of the demand in the economic zone. Hence, with the support of off-grid generation, the demand from the national grid was reduced to 45 % and 107 % for reference and aggressive scenarios with the support of onsite generation. Hence, this research clearly shows that there is a serious need for large scale electricity generation and distribution planning and preparation to meet the continually increasing electric power demand in a sustainable manner to accommodate the growth and change required to develop the modern economic zones in the country.

Power spectrum: A detailed dataset on electric demand and environmental interplays.

This dataset provides detailed electricity demand forecasting metrics for the Sharjah Electricity and Water Authority (SEWA) over 2020 and 2021. Data encompasses both hourly and daily demand patterns, enriched with specific environmental parameters such as temperature, humidity, and solar irradiance. Additionally, SEWA's unique load metrics and lagged demand values, representing previous hour demand, are included. Data was procured using advanced electrical load meters and standardized weather data acquisition systems. Preliminary and advanced data processing was conducted via Excel tool. This comprehensive dataset is invaluable for stakeholders in electricity provisioning and policy-making. Its granular detail makes it a pivotal resource for modelling and forecasting electricity demand, aiding in infrastructure planning, renewable energy considerations, and demand-side management. The potential applications span across academic, policy, and industry domains, rendering it a versatile tool for future electricity demand research.

Applying modified-data mining techniques to assess public transportation vulnerable urban and suburban city areas.

To guarantee the right to move for residents in areas where public transportation is insufficient, research is needed to identify vulnerable areas and prepare measures. This paper defines the vulnerable regions of public transportation within various city types in Korea. In order to identify appropriate areas to apply the Demand Responsive Transit (DRT), the regions with vulnerability were compared with a specific city (Yangsan-si) which already the DRT system was successfully adopted. To collect monthly bus data, web-data crawling method was performed and processed with coordinating program by matching GPS coordinate. The public transportation demand was predicted for each grid cell size (100 m, 250 m, and 500 m) by different methodologies. Various data mining models based on regression were analyzed to predict bus demand of vulnerable areas. Among models, a modified model was suggested to combine Automated machine learning models for high prediction performance. The modified model outperformed other methods as 0.685 and prediction performance was appropriate at 100 m rectangle grid. Regional characters of DRT bus allocation areas were extracted by K-means clustering method and differentiate urban and suburban types. The findings of this study provide valuable insights into conditions that DRT bus stop can be installed. The urban bus stop areas located in metropolitan cities and the suburban bus stop allocation areas located in countryside. The study results can be used as policy data for the successful introduction to prevent social exclusion and improve resident welfare in the future.

Blood Demand Forecasting and Supply Management: An Analytical Assessment of Key Studies Utilizing Novel Computational Techniques.

Use of data-driven methodologies in enhancing blood transfusion practices is rising, leveraging big data, machine learning, and optimization techniques to improve demand forecasting and supply chain management. This review used a narrative approach to identify, evaluate, and synthesize key studies that considered novel computational techniques for blood demand forecasting and inventory management through a search of PubMed and Web of Sciences databases for studies published from January 01, 2016, to March 30, 2023. The studies were analyzed for their utilization of various techniques, and their strengths, limitations, and areas for improvement. Seven key studies were identified. The studies focused on different blood components using various computational methods, such as regression, machine learning, hybrid models, and time series models, across different locations and time periods. Key variables used for demand forecasting were largely derived from electronic health record data, including clinical related predictors such as laboratory test results and hospital census by location. Each study offered unique strengths and valuable insights into the use of data-driven methods in blood bank management. Common limitations were unknown generalizability to other healthcare settings or blood components, need for field-specific performance measures, lack of ABO compatibility consideration, and ethical challenges in resource allocation. While data-driven research in blood demand forecasting and management has progressed, limitations persist and further exploration is needed. Understanding these innovative, interdisciplinary methods and their complexities can help refine inventory strategies and address healthcare challenges more effectively, leading to more robust, accurate models to enhance blood management across diverse healthcare scenarios.

Scalability evaluation of forecasting methods applied to bicycle sharing systems.

Public Bicycle Sharing Systems (BSS) have spread in many cities for the last decade. The need of analysis tools to predict the behavior or estimate balancing needs has fostered a wide set of approaches that consider many variables. Often, these approaches use a single scenario to evaluate their algorithms, and little is known about the applicability of such algorithms in BSS of different sizes. In this paper, we evaluate the performance of widely known prediction algorithms for three sized scenarios: a small system, with around 20 docking stations, a medium-sized one, with 400+ docking stations, and a large one, with more than 1500 stations. The results show that Prophet and Random Forest are the prediction algorithms with more consistent results, and that small systems often have not enough data for the algorithms to perform a solid work.

A Model Selection Approach for Time Series Forecasting: Incorporating Google Trends Data in Australian Macro Indicators.

This study examined whether the behaviour of Internet search users obtained from Google Trends contributes to the forecasting of two Australian macroeconomic indicators: monthly unemployment rate and monthly number of short-term visitors. We assessed the performance of traditional time series linear regression (SARIMA) against a widely used machine learning technique (support vector regression) and a deep learning technique (convolutional neural network) in forecasting both indicators across different data settings. Our study focused on the out-of-sample forecasting performance of the SARIMA, SVR, and CNN models and forecasting the two Australian indicators. We adopted a multi-step approach to compare the performance of the models built over different forecasting horizons and assessed the impact of incorporating Google Trends data in the modelling process. Our approach supports a data-driven framework, which reduces the number of features prior to selecting the best-performing model. The experiments showed that incorporating Internet search data in the forecasting models improved the forecasting accuracy and that the results were dependent on the forecasting horizon, as well as the technique. To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first to assess the usefulness of Google search data in the context of these two economic variables. An extensive comparison of the performance of traditional and machine learning techniques on different data settings was conducted to enable the selection of an efficient model, including the forecasting technique, horizon, and modelling features.

SqueezeNet for the forecasting of the energy demand using a combined version of the sewing training-based optimization algorithm.

With the introduction of various loads and dispersed production units to the system in recent years, the significance of precise forecasting for short, long, and medium loads have already been recognized. It is important to analyze the power system's performance in real-time and the appropriate response to changes in the electric load to make the best use of energy systems. Electric load forecasting for a long period in the time domain enables energy producers to increase grid stability, reduce equipment failures and production unit outages, and guarantee the dependability of electricity output. In this study, SqueezeNet is first used to obtain the required power demand forecast at the user end. The structure of the SqueezeNet is then enhanced using a customized version of the Sewing Training-Based Optimizer. A comparison between the results of the suggested method and those of some other published techniques is then implemented after the method has been applied to a typical case study with three different types of demands-short, long, and medium-term. A time window has been set up to collect the objective and input data from the customer at intervals of 20 min, allowing for highly effective neural network training. The results showed that the proposed method with 0.48, 0.49, and 0.53 MSE for Forecasting the short-term, medium-term, and long-term electricity provided the best results with the highest accuracy. The outcomes show that employing the suggested technique is a viable option for energy consumption forecasting.

Deep Learning Combinatorial Models for Intelligent Supply Chain Demand Forecasting.

Low-carbon and environmentally friendly living boosted the market demand for new energy vehicles and promoted the development of the new energy vehicle industry. Accurate demand forecasting can provide an important decision-making basis for new energy vehicle enterprises, which is beneficial to the development of new energy vehicles. From the perspective of an intelligent supply chain, this study explored the demand forecasting of new energy vehicles, and proposed an innovative SARIMA-LSTM-BP combination model for prediction modeling. The data showed that the RMSE, MSE, and MAE values of the SARIMA-LSTM-BP combination model were 2.757, 7.603, and, 1.912, respectively, all of which are lower values than those of the single models. This study therefore, indicated that, compared with traditional econometric forecasting models and deep learning forecasting models, such as the random forest, support vector regression (SVR), long short-term memory (LSTM), and back propagation neural network (BP) models, the SARIMA-LSTM-BP combination model performed outstandingly with higher accuracy and better forecasting performance.

Systematic review of passenger demand forecasting in aviation industry.

Forecasting aviation demand is a significant challenge in the airline industry. The design of commercial aviation networks heavily relies on reliable travel demand predictions. It enables the aviation industry to plan ahead of time, evaluate whether an existing strategy needs to be revised, and prepare for new demands and challenges. This study examines recently published aviation demand studies and evaluates them in terms of the various forecasting techniques used, as well as the advantages and disadvantages of each. This study investigates numerous forecasting techniques for passenger demand, emphasizing the multiple factors that influence aviation demand. It examined the benefits and drawbacks of various models ranging from econometric to statistical, machine learning to deep neural networks, and the most recent hybrid models. This paper discusses multiple application areas where passenger demand forecasting is used effectively. In addition to the benefits, the challenges and potential future scope of passenger demand forecasting were discussed. This study will be helpful to future aviation researchers while also inspiring young researchers to pursue careers in this industry.

Spare Parts Demand Forecasting Method Based on Intermittent Feature Adaptation.

The demand for complex equipment aftermarket parts is mostly sporadic, showing typical intermittent characteristics as a whole, resulting in the evolution law of a single demand series having insufficient information, which restricts the prediction effect of existing methods. To solve this problem, this paper proposes a prediction method of intermittent feature adaptation from the perspective of transfer learning. Firstly, to extract the intermittent features of the demand series, an intermittent time series domain partitioning algorithm is proposed by mining the demand occurrence time and demand interval information in the series, then constructing the metrics, and using a hierarchical clustering algorithm to divide all the series into different sub-source domains. Secondly, the intermittent and temporal characteristics of the sequence are combined to construct a weight vector, and the learning of common information between domains is accomplished by weighting the distance of the output features of each cycle between domains. Finally, experiments are conducted on the actual after-sales datasets of two complex equipment manufacturing enterprises. Compared with various prediction methods, the method in this paper can effectively predict future demand trends, and the prediction's stability and accuracy are significantly improved.

How climate change affects electricity consumption in Chinese cities-a differential perspective based on municipal monthly panel data.

Addressing the impacts of climate change has become a global public crisis and challenge. China is characterized by a complex and diverse topography and vast territory, which makes it worthwhile to explore the differential impacts of climate change on urban electricity consumption in different zones and economic development conditions. This study examines the differential impact of climate factors on urban electricity consumption in China based on monthly panel data for 282 prefectures from 2011 to 2019 and projects the potential demand for future urban electricity consumption under different climate change scenarios. The results show that (1) temperature changes significantly alter urban electricity consumption, with cooling degree days (CDD) and heating degree days (HDD) contributing positively to urban electricity consumption in areas with different regional and economic development statuses, with elasticity coefficients of 0.1015-0.1525 and 0.0029-0.0077, respectively. (2) The temperature-electricity relationship curve shows an irregular U-shape. Each additional day of extreme weather above 30 °C and below -12 °C increases urban electricity consumption by 0.52% and 1.52% in the north and by 2.67% and 1.32% in the south. Poor cities are significantly more sensitive to extremely low temperatures than rich cities. (3) Suppose the impacts of climate degradation on urban electricity consumption are not halted. In that case, the possible Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 1-1.9 (SSP1-1.9), SSP1-2.6, and SSP2-4.5 will increase China's urban electricity consumption by 1621.96 billion kWh, 2960.87 billion kWh, and 6145.65 billion kWh, respectively, by 2090. Finally, this study makes some policy recommendations and expectations for follow-up studies.

Multiperspective Analysis of Pandemic Impacts on U.S. Import Trade: What Happened, and Why?

U.S. container ports have experienced unpresented congestion since mid-2020. The congestion is generally attributed to import surges triggered by heavy spending on consumer goods during the COVID-19 pandemic. Port congestion has been compounded by the inability of importers to retrieve, receive, and process all the inbound goods they have ordered, resulting in supply chain shortfalls and economic disruption. How can the shipping industry and government organizations predict the end of the current surge and anticipate future surges? Expected seasonal variations in import volume are associated with peak holiday shopping periods; nonseasonal import surges are signaled by other factors. The research goes beyond transportation data sources to examine broader connections between import volume and indicators of economic and retail industry conditions. The strongest and most useful relationship appears to be between retail inventory indicators and containerized import growth. From January 2018 through July 2021, there was a relatively strong negative correlation between retail inventory- and import TEU indices with a 4-month lag (corresponding roughly to the time between import orders and -arrival). In the 2020 to 2021 pandemic period the negative correlation was stronger, again with a 4-month lag. These findings suggest that observers might anticipate import surges after marked, nonseasonal drops in retail inventories, and that import surges are likely to last until target inventory levels are restored. In a broader sense, an awareness of the linkages between consumer demand, retail chain responses, and containerized import volumes could better inform port, freight transportation, and government planning and policy choices.