Analysis of early and treatment related deaths among children and adolescents with acute myeloid leukemia in Poland: 2005-2023.

Background: A personalised approach to the treatment of acute myeloid leukemia (AML) in children and adolescents, as well as the development of supportive therapies, has significantly improved survival. Despite this, some patients still die before starting treatment or in an early phase of therapy before achieving remission. The study analysed the frequency, clinical features and risk factors for early deaths (ED) and treatment related deaths (TRD) of children and adolescents with AML. Methods: From January 2005 to November 2023, 646 children with AML treated in the centers of the Polish Pediatric Leukemia and Lymphoma Study Group according to three subsequent therapeutic protocols were evaluated: AML-BFM 2004 Interim (385 children), AML-BFM 2012 Registry (131 children) and AML-BFM 2019 (130 children). Results: Out of 646 children, early death occurred in 30 children, including 15 girls. The median age was 10.7 years (1 day to 18 years). More than half of the patients (53%) were diagnosed with acute myelomonocytic leukemia (M5) and 13% with acute promyelocytic leukemia (M3). The ED rate for the three consecutive AML-BFM protocols was 4.9% vs. 5.3% vs. 3.1%, respectively. In 19 patients, death occurred before the 15th day of treatment, in 11 between the 15th and 42nd day. The most common cause of death before the 15th day (ED15) was leukostasis and bleeding, whereas between the 15th and 42nd day (ED15-42), infections, mainly bacterial sepsis. A significant association was found between ED15 and high leukocyte count (>10 × 109/L), M3 leukemia (p < 0.001), and ED15-42 and age <1 year (p = 0.029). In the univariate analysis only initial high leukocyte count >100 × 109/L, was a significant predictor of early death. The overall TRD for the entire study period was 3.4%. The main cause of death were infections, mainly bacterial sepsis (10 children out of 22, 45.4%). Conclusions: Hyperleukocytosis remains significant factor of early mortality in patients with AML, despite the introduction of various cytoreductive methods. Infections are still the main cause of treatment related deaths. A more individualized approach by using new targeted drugs may be the therapeutic option of choice in the future.

Different prognosis according to treatment in patients with acute promyelocytic leukemia: How the outcome changed over time.

A comprehensive analysis of 220 patients diagnosed with APL between 1993 and 2022 is here reported. Overall, 214 patients (97.2%) received induction therapy. Complete response (CR) was achieved in 97.4%, 100%, 100%, and 27% of patients treated with AIDA protocol, AIDA + Ara-C, ATRA + ATO, and ATRA monotherapy, respectively. Molecular complete response (CRMRD-) was achieved in 96.8% cases, and 142 patients proceeded to maintenance therapy. Overall, the 3-year and 5-year overall survival (OS) rates were 80.8% (95% CI, 78.1-83.5) and 79.1% (95% CI, 76.4-81.8), respectively. Considering only patients who completed induction and maintenance therapy, the 5-year OS rates were 82.1% (95% CI, 77.5-86.7) for the AIDA0493 cohort, 87.5% (95% CI, 84.4-91.1) for the AIDA2000 cohort, and 100% for the APL0406 cohort (p = 0.044). Additionally, the disease-free survival (DFS) rates were 65.7% (95% CI, 60.4-70.9), 70% (95% CI, 65.8-75.2), and 95.1% (95% CI, 91.7-98.5) (p = 0.016), respectively. Among low and intermediate-risk patients, age > 70 years (p = 0.027) and relapse (p < 0.001) were significantly associated with reduced outcomes. This study contributes to the advancement of our understanding of APL treatment, underscoring the ongoing need for research to enhance outcomes and explore new therapeutic approaches and prognostic factors.

A novel tool for predicting the risk of cancer-specific early death in older patients with primary malignant melanoma of skin: a population-based analysis.

Background: Primary malignant melanoma (MM) of skin threatens health, especially in the older population, causing a significant risk of early death. The purpose of this study was to establish a diagnostic nomogram to predict the early mortality risk in older patients with primary skin MM and to determine the independent risk factors of cancer-specific early death in such patients. Methods: The Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database provided the clinical and pathological characteristics of older patients with primary skin MM from 2000 to 2019. Initially, a 7:3 random assignment was used to place the recruited patients into training and validation cohorts. Then, the independent risk variables of cancer-specific early death in those individuals were determined using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis. Those patients' diagnostic nomograms were constructed using the acquired independent risk variables. Ultimately, the performance of the newly created diagnostic nomogram was verified using calibration curves, receiver operating characteristic (ROC), and decision curve analysis (DCA) curves. Results: In this study, 2,615 patients in total were included. Age, histology, liver metastasis, tumor stage, surgery, therapy, and radiation were found to be independent risk factors following statistical analysis, with a special emphasis on early death in older patients with primary skin MM. A diagnostic nomogram for the cancer-specific early death risk was created and validated based on these variables. High agreement was reported between the expected and actual probabilities in the calibration curves. Area under the curves (AUC) of the novel created diagnostic nomogram was greater than that of each independent risk factor, with AUCs for the training and validation cohorts being 0.966 and 0.971, respectively. The nomogram had a high value for its applicability in clinical settings, according to DCA. Conclusion: In older patients with primary skin MM, the current study created a diagnostic nomogram to predict the probability of cancer-specific early death. Because of the nomograms' good performance, physicians will be better able to identify older patients who are at a high risk of early death and treat them individually to increase their survival benefit.

Preoperative prediction of early mortality after surgery for spinal metastases.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to provide a convenient preoperative prediction of the risk of early postoperative mortality. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This retrospective study included patients who underwent surgery for spinal metastasis at our hospital between 2009 and 2021. Preoperative blood test data of all patients were collected, and the survival time was calculated by dividing the blood data. A multivariate analysis was conducted using a Cox proportional hazards model to identify prognostic factors. RESULTS: The study population included 83 patients (average: 64.5 years), 22 of whom died within 3 months. The most common lesion was the thoracic spine, and incomplete paralysis was observed in 57 patients. The surgical methods included posterior implant fixation (n = 17), posterior decompression (n = 31), and posterior decompression with fixation (n = 35). In the univariate analysis, the presence of abnormal values was significantly associated with postoperative survival in six preoperative blood collection items (hemoglobin, C-reactive protein, albumin, white blood cell, gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase, and lactate dehydrogenase). In a multivariate analysis, four test items (hemoglobin, C-reactive protein, white blood cell, and lactate dehydrogenase) were identified as independent prognostic factors.Comparing cases with ≥3 abnormal values among the above four items (high-risk group; n = 23) and those with ≤2 (low-risk group; n = 60), there was a significant difference in survival time. In addition, it was possible to predict cases of early death within 3 months after surgery with 73% sensitivity and 89% specificity. CONCLUSIONS: The study showed that four preoperative blood test abnormalities (hemoglobin, C-reactive protein white blood cell, and lactate dehydrogenase) indicated the possibility of early death within 3 months after surgery.

Risk factors and nomograms for diagnosis and early death in patients with combined small cell lung cancer with distant metastasis: a population-based study.

OBJECTIVE: Combined small cell lung cancer (CSCLC) with distant metastasis (DM) is an aggressive disease with a poor prognosis. Effective nomograms are needed to predict DM and early death in patients with CSCLC and DM. METHODS: This retrospective study included patients with CSCLC from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database between 2004 and 2015. Risk factors for DM and early death were analyzed by univariate and multivariate logistic regression. Nomograms were constructed based on the results in a training cohort and confirmed in a validation cohort, and their performances were assessed by concordance index (C-index), receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA). RESULTS: A total of 788 patients with CSCLC were selected, including 364 patients with metastatic CSCLC. Sex, tumor site, T stage, and N stage were independent risk factors for DM, while age, surgery, chemotherapy, and liver metastasis were independent risk factors for early death. C-index, ROC, calibration, and DCA curve analyses all showed good predictive performances for both nomograms. CONCLUSIONS: These nomograms could reliably predict DM risk in CSCLC patients and early death in CSCLC patients with DM, and may thus help clinicians to assess these risks and implement individualized therapies.

Analysis of early death in critically ill patients with acute promyelocytic leukaemia in the HICU.

This study was conducted to identify the characteristics and risk factors for early death in critically ill acute promyelocytic leukaemia (APL) patients in the Hemato-oncology ICU (HICU). A total of 44 APL patients from 2017 to 2023 were included. The mortality among APL patients in the HICU was high (27/44, 61.36%). Compared with patients who survived, nonsurvivors had a longer prothrombin time (P = 0.002), lower fibrinogen (P = 0.022), higher white blood cell count (P = 0.004) and higher creatinine (P = 0.037) on hosipital admission. Severe bleeding was the most frequent complication (34 cases, 77.27%), which occurred either preinduction or on Day 5 (IQR 3-7.5 days) of induction. Cerebral bleeding associated with consciousness disturbance was the main reason for HICU admission (18 cases, 40.9%). The leading cause of death was fatal haemorrhage (18/34, 52.94%), which occurred either preinduction or on Day 4 (IQR 3-7 days) of induction. Another common cause of death was sepsis (8/18, 44.44%), which occurred on Day 12 (IQR 9.5-24.75 days) during induction. In conclusion, the main cause of death in APL patients treated in the HICU was primary being attributed to fatal bleeding, followed by sepsis.

Clinical characteristics and analysis of related factors associated with early death in newly diagnosed patients with acute promyelocytic leukemia.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to investigate the clinical characteristics and analysis of related factors associated with early death in newly diagnosed patients with acute promyelocytic leukemia (APL). METHODS: This retrospective study included patients who visited our hospital between January 2010 and August 2022 and were diagnosed with APL for the first time. We analyzed their clinical and laboratory characteristics and analysis of related factors associated with early death. RESULTS: A total of 269 patients with a primary diagnosis of APL were collected. The male to female ratio was 6:5, and the median age was 42 years (range 7-80). Among patients with initial APL diagnosis, there were 34 early deaths, resulting in an early mortality rate of 13%. The median time from diagnosis to death was 8.5 days (range 3-24). Comparative analysis of the clinical characteristics between patients who died early and those who did not, using a logistic regression model, revealed that age, white blood cell count (WBC) at initial diagnosis, and prolongation time of prothrombin time (PT) were independent risk factors for early death in patients with primary APL (P < 0.05). Comparing the clinical characteristics during hospitalization between the early death group and the non-early death group, it was observed that the daily mean of WBC during hospitalization was significantly higher in patients who died early than in those who did not (P < 0.001). Conversely, the daily mean of platelet count (PLT) was significantly lower in patients who died early compared to those who did not (P < 0.001). Furthermore, statistically significant differences were found in the mean daily infusion of PLT (P < 0.05), fibrinogen (Fib) (P < 0.05), and fresh frozen plasma (FFP) (P < 0.05) during hospitalization between patients who died early and those who did not. Specifically, the mean daily infusion of PLT and FFP was significantly higher in the early-death group than in the non-early-death group. Cerebral hemorrhage was identified as the immediate cause of death in 25 out of the 34 early-death patients (74%). The remaining causes of death included infection in 5 cases (15%), all of which were severe pulmonary infections, including 2 cases of combined differentiation syndrome, and abandonment of treatment in 4 patients (11%) at initial diagnosis. CONCLUSION: In patients with primary APL, age, WBC at initial diagnosis, and PT prolongation time were identified as independent risk factors for early death (P < 0.05). Laboratory findings regarding WBC and PLT during hospitalization, as well as the infusion of PLT, Fib, and FFP during hospitalization, were also statistically significant. Cerebral hemorrhage was found to be the main cause of early death in patients with primary APL.

Increased cTnI Predicts Early Death in Patients with Severe Fever with Thrombocytopenia: A Multicenter Study in North China.

Background: Myocardial injury is common in severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) patients. Currently, research on the prognostic value of cardiac troponin I (cTnI) for predicting the mortality of SFTS patients, especially death within 7 days is limited. Methods: Between May 2011 and October 2022, clinical and laboratory data on admission of consecutive SFTS cases were collected from six medical centres in China. The clinical endpoint was in-hospital all-cause death within seven days. Risk factors of myocardial injury and death were analysed using multivariable regression models. Prognostic models were established using Cox regression and performance of indicators was evaluated in terms of calibration, discrimination. Results: A total of 1379 laboratory-confirmed patients were enrolled, in which 686 subjects were included for analysis. The median age was 66 years, with 48.1% of male. Eighty-seven patients died within seven days and 396 patients diagnosed with myocardial injury during hospitalization. Non-survivors had significant higher levels of cardiac indices than survivors, including cTnI, aspartic transaminase (AST) and lactate dehydrogenase (LDH). Elevated levels of cTnI (HR = 1.058, 95% CI:1.032-1.085), AST (HR = 1.191, 95% CI:1.150-1.234) and LDH (HR = 1.019, 95% CI:1.009-1.029) predicted risk of early in-hospital mortality. cTnI model performed best, with area under curve of 0.850 (0.774-0.926) and concordance index of 0.842, respectively. Statistical differences were found between high and low levels of cTnI for mortality (P<0.001) using 0.35 ng/mL as the optimal cut-off. Conclusion: The risk of early in-hospital death can be predicted by cTnI. Clinical doctors should remind vigilant concerning the elevation of cardiac enzyme as soon as possible.

Incorporation of stromal tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes into an early death prediction model significantly improves net reclassification for outcome estimation in advanced buccal cancer.

We explored the impact of stromal tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (sTILs) on the prognostic value of an early death model for advanced buccal cancer. We assessed 121 patients with advanced buccal cancer who underwent primary tumor resection at a medical center. Predictors of early death and 5-year overall survival (OS) were analyzed using Cox regression models. Performance of models was evaluated with the Harrell C and Akaike information criterion. The net reclassification improvement of the early death model was also calculated relative to the 5-year OS model for one-year all-cause mortality. A total of 121 patients with advanced buccal cancer were recruited. Mean age was 56.1 ± 9.8 years; 117 (96.7%) patients were male. sTILs ≤30%, clinical nodal disease, pathological nodal disease, poor differentiation, lymphovascular invasion, perineural invasion, WPOI 5, and no adjuvant radiotherapy were risk factors for early death in univariate analysis. In multivariate analysis, clinical TNM, sTILs, clinical nodal disease, poor differentiation, lymphovascular invasion, and no adjuvant RT were independent factors for early death. sTILs, pathological nodal disease, poor differentiation, lymphovascular invasion, and no adjuvant RT were independent factors for early death in the multivariate model with pathological TNM. The discriminatory ability was better for early death model for 1-year all-cause mortality. Finally, incorporation of sTILs into the early death model increased net reclassification by 21% for the clinical TNM model and 28% for the pathological TNM model. Addition of sTILs improved the early death model, which may help physicians to identify high-risk patients for more intensive treatment and follow-up.

Short Communication: Taurine Long-Term Treatment Prevents the Development of Cardiac Hypertrophy, and Premature Death in Hereditary Cardiomyopathy of the Hamster Is Sex-Independent.

Recently, we reported that during the hypertrophic phase (230 days old) of hereditary cardiomyopathy of the hamster (HCMH), short-term treatment (20 days) with 250 mg/kg/day of taurine prevents the development of hypertrophy in males but not in females. However, the mortality rate in non-treated animals was higher in females than in males. To verify whether the sex-dependency effect of taurine is due to the difference in the disease's progression, we treated the 230-day-old animals for a longer time period of 122 days. Our results showed that long-term treatment with low and high concentrations of taurine significantly prevents cardiac hypertrophy and early death in HCMH males (p < 0.0001 and p < 0.05, respectively) and females (p < 0.01 and p < 0.0001, respectively). Our results demonstrate that the reported sex dependency of short-term treatments with taurine is due to a higher degree of heart remodeling in females when compared to males and not to sex dependency. In addition, sex-dependency studies should consider the differences between the male and female progression of the disease. Thus, long-term taurine therapies are recommended to prevent remodeling and early death in hereditary cardiomyopathy.

Predictors of 1-year mortality after gastrectomy for gastric cancer.

PURPOSE: One-year mortality is important for referrals to specialist palliative care or advance care planning (ACP). This helps optimize comfort for those who cannot be cured or have a lower life expectancy. Few studies have investigated the risk factors for 1-year mortality after gastrectomy for gastric cancer (GC). METHODS: A total of 1415 patients with gastric cancer (stages I-IV) who underwent gastrectomy between 2005 and 2020 were included. The patients were randomly assigned to the investigation group (n = 850) and validation group (n = 565) in a 3:2 ratio. In the investigation group, significant independent prognostic factors for predicting 1-year survival were identified. A scoring system for predicting 1-year mortality was developed which was validated in the validation group. RESULTS: Multivariate analysis revealed that the following seven variables were significant independent factors for 1-year survival: age ≧78, preoperative comorbidity, total gastrectomy, postoperative complication (Clavien-Dindo classification CD â‰§ 3a), stage III and IV, and R2 resection. While developing a 1-year mortality score (OMS), an age ≧78 was scored 2, preoperative comorbidity, total gastrectomy, and postoperative complication (CD â‰§ 3a) were scored 1, and stage III, IV, and R2-resection were scored 2, 3, and 3, respectively. OMS 3 had a sensitivity of 91% and a specificity of 66% for predicting death within 1 year. In the validation group, OMS 5 had a sensitivity of 55% and a specificity of 93% for predicting death within 1 year. CONCLUSIONS: OMS may provide important information and help surgeons select the timing of ACP in patients with GC.

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Objective: To construct nomogram models to predict the risk factors for early death in patients with metastatic melanoma (MM). Methods: The study covered 2138 cases from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program (SEER) database and all these patients were diagnosed with MM between 2010 and 2015. Logistic regression was performed to identify independent risk factors affecting early death in MM patients. These risk factors were then used to construct nomograms of all-cause early death and cancer-specific early death. The efficacy of the model was assessed with receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA). In addition, external validation of the model was performed with clinicopathologic data of 105 patients diagnosed with MM at Sichuan Cancer Hospital between January 2015 and January 2020. Results: According to the results of logistic regression, marital status, the primary site, N staging, surgery, chemotherapy, bone metastases, liver metastases, lung metastases, and brain metastases could be defined as independent predictive factors for early death. Based on these factors, 2 nomograms were plotted to predict the risks of all-cause early death and cancer-specific early death, respectively. For the models for all-cause and cancer-specific early death, the areas under the curve (AUCs) for the training group were 0.751 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.726-0.776) and 0.740 (95% CI: 0.714-0.765), respectively. The AUCs for the internal validation group were 0.759 (95% CI: 0.722-0.797) and 0.757 (95% CI: 0.718-0.780), respectively, while the AUCs for the external validation group were 0.750 (95% CI: 0.649-0.850) and 0.741 (95% CI: 0.644-0.838), respectively. The calibration curves showed high agreement between the predicted and the observed probabilities. DCA analysis indicated high clinical application value of the models. Conclusion: The nomogram models demonstrated good performance in predicting early death in MM patients and can be used to help clinical oncologists develop more individualized treatment strategies.

Analysis of the impact of radiotherapy and surgical treatment regimens based on the SEER database on the survival outcomes of rectal cancer patients over 70 years.

OBJECTIVE: This study evaluates the impact of different combinations of treatment regimens, such as additional radiation, chemotherapy, and surgical treatments, on the survival of elderly rectal cancer patients ≥ 70 years of age to support physicians' clinical decision-making. METHODS: Data from a sample of elderly rectal cancer patients aged ≥ 70 years diagnosed from 2005-2015 from the US surveillance, epidemiology, and end results (SEER) database were retrospectively analyzed. The best cut-off point was selected using the x-tile software for the three continuity indices: age, tumor size, and number of regional lymph nodes. All patients were categorized into either the neoadjuvant radiotherapy and surgery group (R_S group), the surgical treatment group (S group), or the surgery and adjuvant radiotherapy group (S_R group). The propensity score allocation was used to match each included study subject in a 1:1 ratio, and the restricted mean survival time method (RMST) was used to predict the mean survival of rectal cancer patients within 5 and 10 years. The prognostic risk factors for rectal cancer patients were determined using univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses, and nomograms were constructed. A subgroup stratification analysis of patients with different treatment combination regimens was performed using the Kaplan-Meier method, and log-rank tests were used for between-group comparisons. The model's predictive accuracy was assessed by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, correction curves, and a clinical decision curve analysis (DCA). RESULTS: A total of 7556 cases of sample data from 2005 to 2015 were included, which were categorized into 6639 patients (87.86%) in the S group, 408 patients (5.4%) in the R_S group, and 509 patients (6.74%) in the S_R group, according to the relevant order of radiotherapy and surgery. After propensity score matching (PSM), the primary clinical characteristics of the groups were balanced and comparable. The difference in the mean survival time before and after PSM was not statistically significant in both R_S and S groups (P value > 0.05), and the difference in the mean survival time after PSM was statistically substantial in S_R and S groups (P value < 0.05). In the multifactorial Cox analysis, the M1 stage and Nodes ≥ 9 were independent risk factors. An age between 70-75 was an independent protective factor for patients with rectal cancer in the R_S and S groups. The Marital_status, T4 stage, N2 stage, M1 stage, and Nodes ≥ 9 were independent risk factors for patients with rectal cancer in the S_R and S groups, and an age between 70-81 was an independent protective factor. The ROC curve area, the model C index, and the survival calibration curve suggested good agreement between the actual and predicted values of the model. The DCA for 3-year, 5-year, and 10-year survival periods indicated that the model had some potential for application. CONCLUSIONS: The results of the study showed no significant difference in the overall survival (OS) between elderly patients who received neoadjuvant radiotherapy and surgery and those who received surgery alone; elderly patients who received surgery and adjuvant radiotherapy had some survival benefits compared with those who received surgery alone, though the benefit of adjuvant radiotherapy was not significant. Therefore, radiotherapy for rectal cancer patients older than 70 years old should be based on individual differences in condition, and a precise treatment plan should be developed.

Racial and ethnic differences in early death among gynecologic malignancy.

BACKGROUND: Racial and ethnic differences in early death after cancer diagnosis have not been well studied in gynecologic malignancy. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to assess population-level trends and characteristics of early death among patients with gynecologic malignancy based on race and ethnicity in the United States. STUDY DESIGN: The National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program was queried to examine 461,300 patients with gynecologic malignancies from 2000 to 2020, including uterine (n=242,709), tubo-ovarian (n=119,989), cervical (n=68,768), vulvar (n=22,991), and vaginal (n=6843) cancers. Early death, defined as a mortality event within 2 months of the index cancer diagnosis, was evaluated per race and ethnicity. RESULTS: At the cohort level, early death occurred in 21,569 patients (4.7%), including 10.5%, 5.5%, 2.9%, 2.5%, and 2.4% for tubo-ovarian, vaginal, cervical, uterine, and vulvar cancers, respectively (P<.001). In a race- and ethnicity-specific analysis, non-Hispanic Black patients with tubo-ovarian cancer had the highest early death rate (14.5%). Early death racial and ethnic differences were the largest in tubo-ovarian cancer (6.4% for Asian vs 14.5% for non-Hispanic Black), followed by uterine (1.6% for Asian vs 4.9% for non-Hispanic Black) and cervical (1.8% for Hispanic vs 3.8% to non-Hispanic Black) cancers (all, P<.001). In tubo-ovarian cancer, the early death rate decreased over time by 33% in non-Hispanic Black patients from 17.4% to 11.8% (adjusted odds ratio, 0.67; 95% confidence interval, 0.53-0.85) and 23% in non-Hispanic White patients from 12.3% to 9.5% (adjusted odds ratio, 0.77; 95% confidence interval, 0.71-0.85), respectively. The early death between-group difference diminished only modestly (12.3% vs 17.4% for 2000-2002 [adjusted odds ratio for non-Hispanic White vs non-Hispanic Black, 0.54; 95% confidence interval, 0.45-0.65] and 9.5% vs 11.8% for 2018-2020 [adjusted odds ratio, 0.65; 95% confidence interval, 0.54-0.78]). CONCLUSION: Overall, approximately 5% of patients with gynecologic malignancy died within the first 2 months from cancer diagnosis, and the early death rate exceeded 10% in non-Hispanic Black individuals with tubo-ovarian cancer. Although improving early death rates is encouraging, the difference among racial and ethnic groups remains significant, calling for further evaluation.

Disseminated intravascular coagulation score evolution in 48 h predicts early death in acute promyelocytic leukemia patients.

INTRODUCTION: Early death (ED) is the unsolved issue of acute promyelocytic leukemia (APL). The disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC) score has been proposed as a marker of bleeding and death in APL; whether its temporal evolution predicts outcomes in APL is unknown. We evaluated whether an increasing score 48 h after diagnosis associates with ED. METHODS: Retrospective, single-center study, including patients with newly diagnosed APL between 2000 and 2023, treated with all-transretinoic acid (ATRA) plus anthracycline or arsenic trioxide (ATO). "DIC score worsening" was defined as ≥1 point increase in the score after 48 h, and ED as death within 30 days of diagnosis. RESULTS: Eighty-six patients were included, with median age of 46 years (17-82). ED patients (26.7%) more frequently had age >60 years and worsening DIC score after 48 h. These were also the only predictors of ED identified in both univariate and multivariate (OR 4.18, p = .011; OR 7.8, p = .005, respectively) logistic regression analysis. CONCLUSION: This is the first study on DIC score evolution in APL-a worsening DIC score 48 h after diagnosis is a strong independent predictive factor of ED. We propose a reduction of the DIC score from diagnosis as a new treatment goal in APL care.

Congenital Long QT Syndrome (LQTS) in Infancy: A Challenging Case.

Long QT syndrome (LQTS), is an arrhythmia disorder, related to ventricular myocardial repolarization characterized by a prolonged QT interval on the electrocardiogram that can lead to symptomatic ventricular arrhythmias and increase the mortality rate. The prevalence of congenital LQTS is about 1 in 2000 live births. Here, we report the case of a two-month-old female, with a significant family history of early death, who was brought to our emergency with an episode of blueish discoloration. The initial workup was positive for COVID-19 in the respiratory panel, so she was admitted as a case of bronchiolitis. It was a challenge because of the overlapping presentation between a serious condition and other common pediatric illnesses. Furthermore, the paper aims to increase awareness of this condition among physicians and emphasizes the importance of obtaining a complete medical history, physical examination, and family screening in selected cases to facilitate early diagnosis and timely management.

Development and validation of an artificial intelligence mobile application for predicting 30-day mortality in critically ill patients with orthopaedic trauma.

BACKGROUND: Given the intricate and grave nature of trauma-related injuries in ICU settings, it is imperative to develop and deploy reliable predictive tools that can aid in the early identification of high-risk patients who are at risk of early death. The objective of this study is to create and validate an artificial intelligence (AI) model that can accurately predict early mortality among critical fracture patients. METHODS: A total of 2662 critically ill patients with orthopaedic trauma were included from the MIMIC III database. Early mortality was defined as death within 30 days in this study. The patients were randomly divided into a model training cohort and a model validation cohort. Various algorithms, including logistic regression (LR), extreme gradient boosting machine (eXGBM), decision tree (DT), support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), and neural network (NN), were employed. Evaluation metrics, including discrimination and calibration, were used to develop a comprehensive scoring system ranging from 0 to 60, with higher scores indicating better prediction performance. Furthermore, external validation was carried out using 131 patients. The optimal model was deployed as an internet-based AI tool. RESULTS: Among all models, the eXGBM demonstrated the highest area under the curve (AUC) value (0.974, 95%CI: 0.959-0.983), followed by the RF model (0.951, 95%CI: 0.935-0.967) and the NN model (0.922, 95%CI: 0.905-0.941). Additionally, the eXGBM model outperformed other models in terms of accuracy (0.915), precision (0.906), recall (0.926), F1 score (0.916), Brier score (0.062), log loss (0.210), and discrimination slope (0.767). Based on the scoring system, the eXGBM model achieved the highest score (53), followed by RF (42) and NN (39). The LR, DT, and SVM models obtained scores of 28, 18, and 32, respectively. Decision curve analysis further confirmed the superior clinical net benefits of the eXGBM model. External validation of the model achieved an AUC value of 0.913 (95%CI: 0.878-0.948). Consequently, the model was deployed on the Internet at https://30-daymortalityincriticallyillpatients-fnfsynbpbp6rgineaspuim.streamlit.app/, allowing users to input patient features and obtain predicted risks of early mortality among critical fracture patients. Furthermore, the AI model successfully stratified patients into low or high risk of early mortality based on a predefined threshold and provided recommendations for appropriate therapeutic interventions. CONCLUSION: This study successfully develops and validates an AI model, with the eXGBM algorithm demonstrating the highest predictive performance for early mortality in critical fracture patients. By deploying the model as a web-based AI application, healthcare professionals can easily access the tool, enabling them to predict 30-day mortality and aiding in the identification and management of high-risk patients among those critically ill with orthopedic trauma.

A convenient nomogram for predicting early death or liver transplantation after the Kasai procedure in patients with biliary atresia.

PURPOSE: Many patients with biliary atresia (BA) after the Kasai procedure (KP) progress to death or require liver transplantation to achieve long-term survival; however, most cases of death/liver transplantation (D/LT) occur in the early period after KP (usually within 1 year). This study was designed to construct a convenient nomogram for predicting early D/LT in patients with BA after KP. METHODS: A BA cohort was established in May 2017, and up to May 2023, 112 patients with 1-5 years of follow-up were enrolled in the study and randomly (ratio, 3:1) divided into a training cohort for constructing a nomogram (n = 84) and a validation cohort (n = 28) for externally validating the discrimination and calibration. The training cohort was divided into two groups: the early D/LT group (patients who died or had undergone LT within 1 year after KP [n = 35]) and the control group (patients who survived through the native liver more than 1 year after KP [n = 49]). Multivariate logistic regression and stepwise regression were applied to detect variables with the best predictive ability for the construction of the nomogram. The discrimination and calibration of the nomogram were internally and externally validated. RESULTS: The Kaplan-Meier (K-M) curve showed an actual 1-year native liver transplantation (NLS) rate of 57.1% and an estimated 2-year NLS rate of 55.2%. By multivariate regression and stepwise regression, age at KP, jaundice clearance (JC) speed 1 month after KP, early-onset PC (initial time < 36.5 days) after KP, sex, aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index (APRI), and weight at KP were identified as the independent variables with the best ability to predict early D/LT and were used to construct a nomogram. The developed nomogram based on these independent variables showed relatively good discrimination and calibration according to internal and external validation. CONCLUSION: Most D/LTs were early D/LTs that occurred within 1 year after KP. The established nomogram based on predictors, including sex, weight at the KP, the APRI, age at the KP, JC speed 1 month after the KP, and early PC, may be useful for predicting early D/LT and may be helpful for counseling BA patients about patient prognosis after KP. This study was retrospectively registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT05909033) in June 2023.

Pretreatment fat-free mass index correlates with early death in patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: A significant proportion of patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) are malnourished at diagnosis. In this study, we investigated how pretreatment body mass index (BMI) and fat-free mass index (FFMI) correlate with early death, and whether these measurements are useful markers of prognosis for risk stratification of head and neck cancer patients. METHODS: Patients (n = 404) with newly diagnosed, curable HNSCC and WHO performance status 0-2 were prospectively included and met with a study representative before treatment initiation, as well as up to four follow-up visits. All patients provided an estimate of body weight at 6 months prior to diagnosis. Bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) was performed for all patients before treatment initiation. RESULTS: Most patients had oropharyngeal (46%), oral cavity (28%), or laryngeal cancer (12%). Forty-five (11%) patients met the standardized criteria for malnutrition according to the Global Leadership Initiative on Malnutrition (GLIM) at diagnosis. FFMI at diagnosis was lower in patients who died within 6 and 12 months after the start of treatment than in patients who survived these time points (p = 0.035 and p = 0.005, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: In this study, pretreatment FFMI was an independent prognostic factor for death within 6 and 12 months after the start of treatment in patients with HNSCC. Pretreatment BMI was not an independent risk factor for death within 6 and 12 months after treatment termination. Thus, FFMI may be useful for risk stratification of patients with head and neck cancer.