High ASA Physical Status and Low Serum Uric Acid to Creatinine Ratio are Independent Risk Factors for Postoperative Delirium Among Older Adults Undergoing Urinary Calculi Surgery.

Purpose: This study was to investigate the incidence and potential predictive factors for postoperative delirium (POD) in older people following urinary calculi surgery, and to establish the corresponding risk stratification score by the significant factors to predict the risk of POD. Patients and Methods: We retrospectively analyzed the perioperative data of 195 patients aged 65 or older who underwent elective urinary calculi surgery between September 2020 and September 2022. POD was defined by chart-based method, and the serum uric acid to creatinine (SUA/Cr) ratio as well as neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) were calculated, respectively. Identification of the risk factors for POD was performed by univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis. Moreover, the risk stratification score was developed based on the regression coefficients of the associated variables. Results: In 195 eligible patients following urinary calculi surgery, the median age was 69 (66-72) and 19 patients ultimately developed POD (9.7%). The results by univariate analysis showed that patients with advanced age, high American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) physical status (≥3) and low SUA/Cr ratio (≤3.3) were more likely to develop POD, but dexmedetomidine can significantly decrease the risk of the occurrence of POD. The multivariate analysis further indicated that high ASA physical status (≥3) and low SUA/Cr ratio (≤3.3) were independently associated with POD, and the POD incidence could obviously be elevated with the increase of risk stratification score. Moreover, patients with delirium had longer hospital stays. Conclusion: POD is frequent in geriatric patients following urinary calculi surgery (9.7%). The high ASA physical status (≥3) and low SUA/Cr ratio (≤3.3) were effective predictors of POD. The corresponding risk stratification based on these factors could be beneficial to determining patients who are susceptible to POD, and thus better preventing and reducing the occurrence of POD. However, large prospective studies are needed to confirm this finding.

Risk stratification score screening for infective endocarditis in patients with Gram-positive bacteraemia.

BACKGROUND: A feared cause of bacteraemia with Gram-positives is infective endocarditis. Risk stratification scores can aid clinicians in determining the risk of endocarditis. Six proposed scores for the use in bacteraemia; Staphylococcus aureus (PREDICT, VIRSTA, POSITIVE), non-ß-haemolytic streptococci (HANDOC) and Enterococcus faecalis (NOVA, DENOVA) were validated for predictive ability and the utilization of echocardiography was investigated. METHODS: Hospitalized adult patients with Gram-positive bacteraemia during 2017-2019 were evaluated retrospectively through medical records and the Swedish Death Registry. Baseline and score-specific data, definite endocarditis and echocardiographies performed were recorded. Sensitivity, specificity, negative and positive predictive values and echocardiography utilization were determined. RESULTS: 480 patients with bacteraemia were included and definite endocarditis was diagnosed in 20 (7.5%), 10 (6.6%), and 2 (3.2%) patients with S. aureus, non-ß-haemolytic streptococci and E. faecalis, respectively. The sensitivities of the scores were 80-100% and specificities 8-77%. Negative predictive values of the six scores were 98-100%. VIRSTA, HANDOC, NOVA and DENOVA identified all, the PREDICT5 score missed 1/20 and the POSITIVE score missed 4/20 cases of endocarditis. Transoesophageal echocardiography was performed in 141 patients (29%). Thus, the risk stratification scores suggested an increase of 3-63 (7-77%) investigations with echocardiography. CONCLUSIONS: All scores had negative-predictive values over 98%, therefore it can be concluded that PREDICT5, VIRSTA, POSITIVE, HANDOC and DENOVA are reasonable screening tools for endocarditis early on in Gram-positive bacteraemia. The use of risk stratification scores will lead to more echocardiographies.

Risk stratification scores for hospitalization duration and disease progression in moderate and severe patients with COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: During outbreak of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), healthcare providers are facing critical clinical decisions based on the prognosis of patients. Decision support tools of risk stratification are needed to predict outcomes in patients with different clinical types of COVID-19. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study recruited 2425 patients with moderate or severe COVID-19. A logistic regression model was used to select and estimate the factors independently associated with outcomes. Simplified risk stratification score systems were constructed to predict outcomes in moderate and severe patients with COVID-19, and their performances were evaluated by discrimination and calibration. RESULTS: We constructed two risk stratification score systems, named as STPCAL (including significant factors in the prediction model: number of clinical symptoms, the maximum body temperature during hospitalization, platelet count, C-reactive protein, albumin and lactate dehydrogenase) and TRPNCLP (including maximum body temperature during hospitalization, history of respiratory diseases, platelet count, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, creatinine, lactate dehydrogenase, and prothrombin time), to predict hospitalization duration for moderate patients and disease progression for severe patients, respectively. According to STPCAL score, moderate patients were classified into three risk categories for a longer hospital duration: low (Score 0-1, median = 8 days, with less than 20.0% probabilities), intermediate (Score 2-6, median = 13 days, with 30.0-78.9% probabilities), high (Score 7-9, median = 19 days, with more than 86.5% probabilities). Severe patients were stratified into three risk categories for disease progression: low risk (Score 0-5, with less than 12.7% probabilities), intermediate risk (Score 6-11, with 18.6-69.1% probabilities), and high risk (Score 12-16, with more than 77.9% probabilities) by TRPNCLP score. The two risk scores performed well with good discrimination and calibration. CONCLUSIONS: Two easy-to-use risk stratification score systems were built to predict the outcomes in COVID-19 patients with different clinical types. Identifying high risk patients with longer stay or poor prognosis could assist healthcare providers in triaging patients when allocating limited healthcare during COVID-19 outbreak.

Infection risk stratification in total knee joint arthroplasty using a new scoring system.

Periprosthetic joint infection (PJI) is a catastrophic complication of total knee arthroplasty (TKA) adding significant costs to the health care system with increasing morbidity and mortality. The goal of this study was to develop a prognostic scoring system that could risk-stratify patients undergoing TKA for the risk of PJI. The study included 150 patients who underwent primary TKA from June 2012 to February2016. There were 60 patients in group I who were not risk stratified using the scoring system, while 90 patients were assigned to group II and were prospectively assigned scores based on the scoring system. Points were assigned for each pre-op variable and a scoring chart was developed. Group II patients scoring 4 or more were counseled to optimize their modifiable risk factors before proceeding with surgery. Retrospective chart review was done for patients in group I to find out their risk score for the study purpose. Nine out of 60 patients in group I were found to have score above 4 based on the chart review, of which 4 patients got infected (P<0.05). None of the group II patients got infected after TKA. In conclusion, our scoring system is an objective scoring system for preoperative risk stratification of patients undergoing TKA, thus helping identification and optimization of the risk factors preoperatively to decrease the risk of PJI.

Candidaemia and a risk predictive model for overall mortality: a prospective multicentre study.

BACKGROUND: Candidaemia is associated with high mortality. Variables associated with mortality have been published previously, but not developed into a risk predictive model for mortality. We sought to describe the current epidemiology of candidaemia in Australia, analyse predictors of 30-day all-cause mortality, and develop and validate a mortality risk predictive model. METHODS: Adults with candidaemia were studied prospectively over 12 months at eight institutions. Clinical and laboratory variables at time of blood culture-positivity were subject to multivariate analysis for association with 30-day all-cause mortality. A predictive score for mortality was examined by area under receiver operator characteristic curves and a historical data set was used for validation. RESULTS: The median age of 133 patients with candidaemia was 62 years; 76 (57%) were male and 57 (43%) were female. Co-morbidities included underlying haematologic malignancy (n = 20; 15%), and solid organ malignancy in (n = 25; 19%); 55 (41%) were in an intensive care unit (ICU). Non-albicans Candida spp. accounted for 61% of cases (81/133). All-cause 30-day mortality was 31%. A gastrointestinal or unknown source was associated with higher overall mortality than an intravascular or urologic source (p < 0.01). A risk predictive score based on age > 65 years, ICU admission, chronic organ dysfunction, preceding surgery within 30 days, haematological malignancy, source of candidaemia and antibiotic therapy for ≥10 days stratified patients into < 20% or ≥ 20% predicted mortality. The model retained accuracy when validated against a historical dataset (n = 741). CONCLUSIONS: Mortality in patients with candidaemia remains high. A simple mortality risk predictive score stratifying patients with candidaemia into < 20% and ≥ 20% 30-day mortality is presented. This model uses information available at time of candidaemia diagnosis is easy to incorporate into decision support systems. Further validation of this model is warranted.

Prediction of mortality in hospital survivors of STEMI: External validation of a novel acute myocardial infarction prognostic score.

INTRODUCTION & OBJECTIVE: Recently we developed and internally-validated the Soroka Acute Myocardial Infarction (SAMI) Score for prediction of all-cause long-term mortality (c-statistic 0.83-0.94) among hospital-survivors of AMI. We aimed to perform an external-validation of the SAMI score for long-term risk-stratification of STEMI patients undergoing PCI. METHODS & SETTINGS: A prospective registry of 1273 STEMI patients treated using primary PCI and discharged alive from Rabin Medical Center in Israel between 2004 and 2014 (age 60.8 ±â€¯12.5 years, 83% males) was utilized for the validation. Chi-square test and logistic regression were used for calibration, and c-statistic (ROC procedure) for discrimination assessment of the SAMI score. RESULTS: All-cause mortality following one- and 5-years post-discharge was 3.8% and 8.1%, respectively. SAMI score values ranged between (-5) and (+15) points (median 2-points). In a univariate analysis the SAMI score variables were significantly associated with 1- and 5-years mortality. Higher SAMI score was associated with increased risk for dying: a one-point increase was associated with OR of 1.33 (95%CI: 1.24-1.42, p < 0.001) and 1.37 (95%CI: 1.29-1.44, p < 0.001) for 1- and 5-years mortality respectively. No statistically significant difference was found in the currently observed mortality rates by groups of SAMI score and the expected mortality rates as per the SAMI score index. The c-statistics were 0.82 and 0.83 for 1- and 5-year mortality, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The SAMI score is a simple, robust and now also externally-validated prognostic tool for prediction of long-term all-cause mortality in hospital survivors of STEMI.

Incidence and Predictive Model for Lateral Pelvic Lymph Node Metastasis in Lower Rectal Cancer.

The lateral pelvic lymph node recurrence after curative resection in rectal cancer has been reported in more than 20% of cases and the lateral pelvic lymph node (LPLN) metastasis is an independent risk factor for local recurrence. A prospective cohort study with diagnosis of lower rectal cancer stages II and III performed to identify the factors with significant correlation with LPLN metastasis was categorised based on the number of positive factors and proposed a risk stratification model to uncover a possible benefit of LPLD in specific patient subgroups. Forty-three patients with lower rectal cancer underwent curative surgery, total mesorectal excision with bilateral lateral pelvic lymph node dissection. Pre-operative, female gender, raised serum CEA (> 5 ng/mL), cT4, enlarged mesorectal lymph nodes, borderline enlarged LPLN on MRI, lower location (< 5 cm from anal verge), large size (> 5 cm) and non-circumferential lesion were significant predictors for LPLN metastasis. Histopathological, higher tumour grade, higher pT and pN stage, and the presence of LVI were significant factors. On cox-proportional hazard model analysis, female gender, large tumour, cT4, enlarged mesorectal lymph nodes, borderline enlarged LPLN, pN1 and positive LVI were associated with significant hazard. In conclusion, a specific group of patients with lower rectal cancer of stages II and III might be have treated with LPND in spite of concurrent chemo-radiation to achieve satisfactory oncological outcome. The proposed stratification grouping is strongly guiding the patient for lateral pelvic lymph node dissection. Further study to prove the oncological advantage of LPND is warranted at large scale.

ProACS risk score: An early and simple score for risk stratification of patients with acute coronary syndromes.

INTRODUCTION: There are barriers to proper implementation of risk stratification scores in patients with acute coronary syndromes (ACS), including their complexity. Our objective was to develop a simple score for risk stratification of all-cause in-hospital mortality in a population of patients with ACS. METHODS: The score was developed from a nationwide ACS registry. The development and internal validation cohorts were obtained from the first 31829 patients, randomly separated (60% and 40%, respectively). The external validation cohort consisted of the last 8586 patients included in the registry. This cohort is significantly different from the other cohorts in terms of baseline characteristics, treatment and mortality. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to select four variables with the highest predictive potential. A score was allocated to each parameter based on the regression coefficient of each variable in the logistic regression model: 1 point for systolic blood pressure ≤116 mmHg, Killip class 2 or 3, and ST-segment elevation; 2 points for age ≥72 years; and 3 points for Killip class 4. RESULTS: The new score had good discriminative ability in the development cohort (area under the curve [AUC] 0.796), and it was similar in the internal validation cohort (AUC 0.785, p=0.333). In the external validation cohort, there was also excellent discriminative ability (AUC 0.815), with an adequate fit. CONCLUSIONS: The ProACS risk score enables easy and simple risk stratification of patients with ACS for in-hospital mortality that can be used at the first medical contact, with excellent predictive ability in a contemporary population.

Assessing the Therapeutic Response to Pirfenidone in Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis: Can We Do Better than with Forced Vital Capacity Alone?

ABSTARCT: New anti-fibrotic agents for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) were approved based on the results of forced vital capacity (FVC) trends, although concerns were raised about the reliability of FVC as the only endpoint parameter. We hypothesized that IPF-specific multi-dimensional scores (Composite Physiologic Index-CPI; gender-age-physiology-GAP; risk stratification score-RISE) would better capture response to therapy. In this pilot study, treated and untreated cohorts of IPF patients, matched for demographic and functional characteristics were prospectively followed for 1 year, at 4-month intervals. Progression-free survival was significantly improved in treated patients (p = 0.0093). While no difference in FVC longitudinal trends was observed, MRC dyspnea score (p = 0.0347), diffusing lung capacity (p = 0.0015), 6-min walk distance (p = 0.0007), CPI (p = 0.0457) and RISE (p = 0.0005) were significantly stabilized in treated patients, compared to steady worsening in untreated subjects. Multi-dimensional scores provide broader spectrum of prognostic information and may facilitate the assessment of efficacy of new drugs for IPF.

Development and validation of the "Pediatric Risk of Nosocomial Sepsis (PRiNS)" score for health care-associated infections in a medical pediatric intensive care unit of a developing economy--a prospective observational cohort study.

PURPOSE: Given the high burden of health care-associated infections (HAIs) in resource-limited settings, there is a tendency toward overdiagnosis/treatment. This study was designed to create an easy-to-use, dynamic, bedside risk stratification model for classifying children based on their risk of developing HAIs during their pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) stay, to aid judicious resource utilization. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A prospective, observational cohort study was conducted in the 12-bed PICU of a large Indian tertiary care hospital between January and October 2011. A total of 412 consecutive admissions, aged 1 month to 12 years with PICU stay greater than 48 hours were enrolled. Independent predictors for HAIs identified using multivariate regression analysis were combined to create a novel scoring system. Performance and calibration of score were assessed using receiver operating characteristic curves and Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic, respectively. Internal validation was done. RESULTS: Age (<5 years), Pediatric Risk of Mortality III (24 hours) score, presence of indwelling catheters, need for intubation, albumin infusion, immunomodulator, and prior antibiotic use (≥4) were independent predictors of HAIs. This model, with area under the ROC curve of 0.87, at a cutoff of 15, had a negative predictive value of 89.9% with overall accuracy of 79.3%. It reduced classification errors from 29.8% to 20.7%. All 7 predictors retained their statistical significance after bootstrapping, confirming the internal validity of the score. CONCLUSIONS: The "Pediatric Risk of Nosocomial Sepsis" score can reliably classify children into high- and low-risk groups, based on their risk of developing HAIs in the PICU of a resource-limited setting. In view of its high sensitivity and specificity, diagnostic and therapeutic interventions may be directed away from the low-risk group, ensuring effective utilization of limited resources.