Estimating Movement Rates Between Eurasian and North American Birds That Are Vectors of Avian Influenza.

Avian influenza (AI) is a zoonotic disease that will likely be involved in future pandemics. Because waterbird movements are difficult to quantify, determining the host-specific risk of Eurasian-origin AI movements into North America is challenging. We estimated relative rates of movements, based on long-term evolutionary averages of gene flow, between Eurasian and North American waterbird populations to obtain bidirectional baseline rates of the intercontinental movements of these AI hosts. We used population genomics and coalescent-based demographic models to obtain these gene-flow-based movement estimates. Inferred rates of movement between these continental populations varies greatly among species. Within dabbling ducks, gene flow, relative to effective population size, varies from ∼3 to 24 individuals/generation between Eurasian and American wigeons (Mareca penelope and Mareca americana) to ∼100-300 individuals/generation between continental populations of northern pintails (Anas acuta). These are evolutionary long-term averages and provide a solid foundation for understanding the relative risks of each of these host species in potential intercontinental AI movements. We scale these values to census size for evaluation in that context. In addition to being AI hosts, many of these bird species are also important in the subsistence diets of Alaskans, increasing the risk of direct bird-to-human exposure to Eurasian-origin AI virus. We contrast species-specific rates of intercontinental movements with the importance of each species in Alaskan diets to understand the relative risk of these taxa to humans. Assuming roughly equivalent AI infection rates among ducks, greater scaup (Aythya marila), mallard (Anas platyrhynchos), and northern pintail (Anas acuta) were the top three species presenting the highest risks for intercontinental AI movement both within the natural system and through exposure to subsistence hunters. Improved data on AI infection rates in this region could further refine these relative risk assessments. These directly comparable, species-based intercontinental movement rates and relative risk rankings should help in modeling, monitoring, and mitigating the impacts of intercontinental host and AI movements.

Estimación de las tasas de movimiento entre aves euroasiáticas y norteamericanas que son vectores de la influenza aviar. La influenza aviar es una enfermedad zoonótica que probablemente estará involucrada en futuras pandemias. Debido a que los movimientos de aves acuáticas son difíciles de cuantificar, La determinación del riesgo específico de hospedador de los movimientos de influenza aviar de origen euroasiático en América del Norte es un desafío. Se estimaron las tasas relativas de movimientos, sobre la base de promedios evolutivos a largo plazo del flujo de genes, entre las poblaciones de aves acuáticas euroasiáticas y norteamericanas para obtener tasas de referencia bidireccionales de los movimientos intercontinentales de estos huéspedes de influenza aviar. Se utilizó genómica de poblaciones y modelos demográficos basados en la teoría de la coalescencia para obtener estas estimaciones de movimiento basadas en el flujo de genes. Las tasas inferidas de movimiento entre estas poblaciones continentales varían mucho entre especies. Dentro de los patos chapuceros, el flujo de genes, en relación con el tamaño efectivo de la población, varía aproximadamente de 3 a 24 individuos/generación entre los silbones europeos y americanos (Mareca penelope y Mareca americana) hasta aproximadamente entre 100 a 300 individuos/generación entre poblaciones continentales de ánades rabudos (Anas acuta). Estos son promedios evolutivos a largo plazo y proporcionan una base sólida para comprender los riesgos relativos de cada una de estas especies hospedadoras en posibles movimientos intercontinentales de la influenza aviar. Se evaluaron estos valores al tamaño del censo para evaluarlos en ese contexto. Además de ser huéspedes de influenza aviar, muchas de estas especies de aves también son importantes en las dietas de subsistencia de los habitantes de Alaska, lo que aumenta el riesgo de exposición directa de las aves al ser humano por el virus de la influenza aviar de origen euroasiático. Se contrastaron las tasas específicas de especies de movimientos intercontinentales con la importancia de cada especie en las dietas de personas en Alaska para comprender el riesgo relativo de estos taxones para los humanos. Suponiendo tasas de infección por influenza aviar aproximadamente equivalentes entre patos, el porrón bastardo o pato boludo mayor (Aythya marila), el ánade real (Anas platyrhynchos) y el ánade rabudo eran las tres especies principales que presentaban los mayores riesgos para el movimiento de influenza aviar intercontinental tanto dentro del sistema natural como a través de la exposición a cazadores de subsistencia. La mejora de los datos sobre las tasas de infección por influenza aviar en esta región podría mejorar aún más estas evaluaciones de riesgo relativo. Estas tasas de movimiento intercontinental directamente comparables, basadas en especies, y clasificaciones de riesgo relativo deberían ayudar a modelar, monitorear y mitigar los impactos de los movimientos intercontinentales de huéspedes y de la influenza aviar.

Ecotoxicology of mercury in burbot (Lota lota) from interior Alaska and insights towards human health.

Fish consumption has many health benefits, but exposure to contaminants, such as mercury (Hg), in fish tissue can be detrimental to human health. The Tanana River drainage, Alaska, USA supports the largest recreational harvest of burbot (Lota lota) in the state, yet information to evaluate the potential risks of consumption by humans is lacking. To narrow this knowledge gap, we sought to (i) quantify the concentrations of total Hg ([THg]) in burbot muscle and liver tissue and the ratio between the two tissues, (ii) assess the effect of age, length, and sex on [THg] in muscle and liver tissue, (iii) evaluate if [THg] in muscle tissue varied based on trophic information, and (iv) compare observed [THg] to consumption guidelines and statewide baseline data. The mean [THg] was 268.2 ng/g ww for muscle tissue and 62.3 ng/g ww for liver tissue. Both muscle [THg] and liver [THg] values were positively associated with fish length. Trophic information (δ15N and δ13C) was not significantly related to measured [THg] in burbot muscle, which is inconsistent with typical patterns of biomagnification observed in other fishes. All burbot sampled were within the established categories for consumption recommendations determined by the State of Alaska for women of childbearing age and children. Our results provide the necessary first step towards informed risk assessment of burbot consumption in the Tanana drainage and offer parallels to fisheries and consumers throughout the subarctic and Arctic region.

Investigation of the 2018 thick-billed murre (Uria lomvia) die-off on St. Lawrence Island rules out food shortage as the cause.

Die-offs of seabirds in Alaska have occurred with increased frequency since 2015. In 2018, on St. Lawrence Island, seabirds were reported washing up dead on beaches starting in late May, peaking in June, and continuing until early August. The cause of death was documented to be starvation, leading to the conclusion that a severe food shortage was to blame. We use physiology and colony-based observations to examine whether food shortage is a sufficient explanation for the die-off, or if evidence indicates an alternative cause of starvation such as disease. Specifically, we address what species were most affected, the timing of possible food shortages, and food shortage severity in a historical context. We found that thick-billed murres (Uria lomvia) were most affected by the die-off, making up 61% of all bird carcasses encountered during beach surveys. Thick-billed murre carcasses were proportionately more numerous (26:1) than would be expected based on ratios of thick-billed murres to co-occurring common murres (U. aalge) observed on breeding study plots (7:1). Concentrations of the stress hormone corticosterone, a reliable physiological indicator of nutritional stress, in thick-billed murre feathers grown in the fall indicate that foraging conditions in the northern Bering Sea were poor in the fall of 2017 and comparable in severity to those experienced by murres during the 1976-1977 Bering Sea regime shift. Concentrations of corticosterone in feathers grown during the pre-breeding molt indicate that foraging conditions in late winter 2018 were similar to previous years. The 2018 murre egg harvest in the village of Savoonga (on St. Lawrence Is.) was one-fifth the 1993-2012 average, and residents observed that fewer birds laid eggs in 2018. Exposure of thick-billed murres to nutritional stress in August, however, was no different in 2018 compared to 2016, 2017, and 2019, and was comparable to levels observed on St. George Island in 2003-2017. Prey abundance, measured by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in bottom-trawl surveys, was also similar in 2018 to 2017 and 2019, supporting the evidence that food was not scarce in the summer of 2018 in the vicinity of St. Lawrence Island. Of two moribund thick-billed murres collected at the end of the mortality event, one tested positive for a novel re-assortment H10 strain of avian influenza with Eurasian components, likely contracted during the non-breeding season. It is not currently known how widely spread infection of murres with the novel virus was, thus insufficient evidence exists to attribute the die-off to an outbreak of avian influenza. We conclude that food shortage alone is not an adequate explanation for the mortality of thick-billed murres in 2018, and highlight the importance of rapid response to mortality events in order to document alternative or confounding causes of mortality.

Arctic marine mammal population status, sea ice habitat loss, and conservation recommendations for the 21st century.

Arctic marine mammals (AMMs) are icons of climate change, largely because of their close association with sea ice. However, neither a circumpolar assessment of AMM status nor a standardized metric of sea ice habitat change is available. We summarized available data on abundance and trend for each AMM species and recognized subpopulation. We also examined species diversity, the extent of human use, and temporal trends in sea ice habitat for 12 regions of the Arctic by calculating the dates of spring sea ice retreat and fall sea ice advance from satellite data (1979-2013). Estimates of AMM abundance varied greatly in quality, and few studies were long enough for trend analysis. Of the AMM subpopulations, 78% (61 of 78) are legally harvested for subsistence purposes. Changes in sea ice phenology have been profound. In all regions except the Bering Sea, the duration of the summer (i.e., reduced ice) period increased by 5-10 weeks and by >20 weeks in the Barents Sea between 1979 and 2013. In light of generally poor data, the importance of human use, and forecasted environmental changes in the 21st century, we recommend the following for effective AMM conservation: maintain and improve comanagement by local, federal, and international partners; recognize spatial and temporal variability in AMM subpopulation response to climate change; implement monitoring programs with clear goals; mitigate cumulative impacts of increased human activity; and recognize the limits of current protected species legislation.

Pacific Walrus and climate change: observations and predictions.

The extent and duration of sea-ice habitats used by Pacific walrus (Odobenus rosmarus divergens) are diminishing resulting in altered walrus behavior, mortality, and distribution. I document changes that have occurred over the past several decades and make predictions to the end of the 21st century. Climate models project that sea ice will monotonically decline resulting in more ice-free summers of longer duration. Several stressors that may impact walruses are directly influenced by sea ice. How these stressors materialize were modeled as most likely-case, worst-case, and best-case scenarios for the mid- and late-21st century, resulting in four comprehensive working hypotheses that can help identify and prioritize management and research projects, identify comprehensive mitigation actions, and guide monitoring programs to track future developments and adjust programs as needed. In the short term, the most plausible hypotheses predict a continuing northward shift in walrus distribution, increasing use of coastal haulouts in summer and fall, and a population reduction set by the carrying capacity of the near shore environment and subsistence hunting. Alternatively, under worst-case conditions, the population will decline to a level where the probability of extinction is high. In the long term, walrus may seasonally abandon the Bering and Chukchi Seas for sea-ice refugia to the northwest and northeast, ocean warming and pH decline alter walrus food resources, and subsistence hunting exacerbates a large population decline. However, conditions that reverse current trends in sea ice loss cannot be ruled out. Which hypothesis comes to fruition depends on how the stressors develop and the success of mitigation measures. Best-case scenarios indicate that successful mitigation of unsustainable harvests and terrestrial haulout-related mortalities can be effective. Management and research should focus on monitoring, elucidating effects, and mitigation, while ultimately, reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are needed to reduce sea-ice habitat losses.