Connectome-based predictive modelling estimates individual cognitive status in Parkinson's disease.

INTRODUCTION: The progressive nature of Parkinson's disease (PD) affords emphasis on accurate early-stage individual-level assessment of risk and intervention appropriateness. In PD, cognitive impairment (CI) may follow or precede motor symptoms but are generally underdetected. In addition to impeding daily functioning and quality of life, CIs increase the risk for later conversion to dementia, providing a pressing need to develop novel tools to detect and interpret them. Connectome-based predictive modelling (CPM) is an emerging machine-learning approach to individual prediction that holds translational promise due to its noninvasiveness and simple implementation. The aim of this study was to investigate CPM's potential to predict and understand CIs in PD. METHODS: Resting-state functional connectivity from 58 patients with PD of varying cognitive status was used to train a CPM-model to predict a global cognitive composite (GCC) score. The model was validated using cross-validation, permutation testing, and internal stability analyses. The combined predictive strength of two brain connectivity networks, positive and negative, directly and inversely correlated with GCC, respectively, was assessed. RESULTS: The model significantly predicted individual GCC scores, r = 0.63, pperm < .05. Separately, the positive and negative networks were similar in performance, rs ≥ .58, ps < .05, but varied in anatomical distribution. CONCLUSIONS: This study identified a connectome predictive of cognitive scores in PD, with features overlapping with established and emerging evidence on aberrant connectivity in PD-related CIs. Overall, CPM appears promising for clinical translation in this population, but longitudinal studies with out-of-sample validation are needed.

Neural correlates of schizotypal traits: Findings from connectome-based predictive modelling.

Schizotypal traits can be conceptualized as a phenotype for schizophrenia spectrum disorders. As such, a better understanding of schizotypal traits could potentially improve early identification and treatment of schizophrenia. We used connectome-based predictive modelling (CPM) based on whole-brain resting-state functional connectivity to predict schizotypal traits in 82 healthy participants. Results showed that only the negative network could reliably predict an individual's schizotypal traits (r = 0.29). The 10 nodes with the highest edges in the negative network were those known to play a key role in sensation and perception, cognitive control as well as motor control. Our findings suggest that CPM might be a promising approach to improve early identification and prevention of schizophrenia from a spectrum perspective.

Connectome-based predictive modelling of cognitive reserve using task-based functional connectivity.

Cognitive reserve supports cognitive function in the presence of pathology or atrophy. Functional neuroimaging may enable direct and accurate measurement of cognitive reserve which could have considerable clinical potential. The present study aimed to develop and validate a measure of cognitive reserve using task-based fMRI data that could then be applied to independent resting-state data. Connectome-based predictive modelling with leave-one-out cross-validation was applied to predict a residual measure of cognitive reserve using task-based functional connectivity from the Cognitive Reserve/Reference Ability Neural Network studies (n = 220, mean age = 51.91 years, SD = 17.04 years). This model generated summary measures of connectivity strength that accurately predicted a residual measure of cognitive reserve in unseen participants. The theoretical validity of these measures was established via a positive correlation with a socio-behavioural proxy of cognitive reserve (verbal intelligence) and a positive correlation with global cognition, independent of brain structure. This fitted model was then applied to external test data: resting-state functional connectivity data from The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing (TILDA, n = 294, mean age = 68.3 years, SD = 7.18 years). The network-strength predicted measures were not positively associated with a residual measure of cognitive reserve nor with measures of verbal intelligence and global cognition. The present study demonstrated that task-based functional connectivity data can be used to generate theoretically valid measures of cognitive reserve. Further work is needed to establish if, and how, measures of cognitive reserve derived from task-based functional connectivity can be applied to independent resting-state data.

Connectome-based prediction of the severity of autism spectrum disorder.

Background: Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is characterized by social and behavioural deficits. Current diagnosis relies on behavioural criteria, but machine learning, particularly connectome-based predictive modelling (CPM), offers the potential to uncover neural biomarkers for ASD. Objective: This study aims to predict the severity of ASD traits using CPM and explores differences among ASD subtypes, seeking to enhance diagnosis and understanding of ASD. Methods: Resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging data from 151 ASD patients were used in the model. CPM with leave-one-out cross-validation was conducted to identify intrinsic neural networks that predict Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule (ADOS) scores. After the model was constructed, it was applied to independent samples to test its replicability (172 ASD patients) and specificity (36 healthy control participants). Furthermore, we examined the predictive model across different aspects of ASD and in subtypes of ASD to understand the potential mechanisms underlying the results. Results: The CPM successfully identified negative networks that significantly predicted ADOS total scores [r (df = 150) = 0.19, P = 0.008 in all patients; r (df = 104) = 0.20, P = 0.040 in classic autism] and communication scores [r (df = 150) = 0.22, P = 0.010 in all patients; r (df = 104) = 0.21, P = 0.020 in classic autism]. These results were reproducible across independent databases. The networks were characterized by enhanced inter- and intranetwork connectivity associated with the occipital network (OCC), and the sensorimotor network (SMN) also played important roles. Conclusions: A CPM based on whole-brain resting-state functional connectivity can predicted the severity of ASD. Large-scale networks, including the OCC and SMN, played important roles in the predictive model. These findings may provide new directions for the diagnosis and intervention of ASD, and maybe could be the targets in novel interventions.

Connectome-based predictive modelling of smoking severity in smokers.

The functional connectivity within and between networks could provide a framework to characterize the neurobiological mechanism of nicotine addiction. This study examined the brain regions that were functionally connected in response to smoking cues and established the brain-behaviour relationships in smokers. Sixty-seven male smokers were enrolled and scanned while performing the cue-reactivity and Stroop task. A whole-brain analysis approach, connectome-based predictive modelling (CPM), was conducted on the data from the cue-reactivity task to identify the networks that could predict the smoking severity with the Shen atlas as templates. Then, the brain-behaviour relationships were verified in a different brain state (Stroop task). CPM identified the smoking severity-related network, as indicated by a significant correlation between predicted and actual smoking severity scores (r = 0.31, p = 0.02). Identified networks mainly involved the canonical networks implicated in the reward process (motor/sensory network and salience network) and executive control (frontoparietal network). Network strength in the Stroop task marginally significantly predicted smoking severity scores (r = 0.23, p = 0.06), partially replicating the brain-behaviour relationship. The CPM results identified the whole-brain neural network related to smoking severity, which was cross-validated by the AAL and Shen atlas. These findings contribute to more profound insights into neural substrates underlying the smoking severity.

Preoperative brain connectome predicts postoperative changes in processing speed in moyamoya disease.

Moyamoya disease is a rare cerebrovascular disorder associated with cognitive dysfunction. It is usually treated by surgical revascularization, but research on the neurocognitive outcomes of revascularization surgery is controversial. Given that neurocognitive impairment could affect the daily activities of patients with moyamoya disease, early detection of postoperative neurocognitive outcomes has the potential to improve patient management. In this study, we applied a well-established connectome-based predictive modelling approach to develop machine learning models that used preoperative resting-state functional connectivity to predict postoperative changes in processing speed in patients with moyamoya disease. Twelve adult patients with moyamoya disease (age range: 23-49 years; female/male: 9/3) were recruited prior to surgery and underwent follow-up at 1 and 6 months after surgery. Twenty healthy controls (age range: 24-54 years; female/male: 14/6) were recruited and completed the behavioural test at baseline, 1-month follow-up and 6-month follow-up. Behavioural results indicated that the behavioural changes in processing speed at 1 and 6 months after surgery compared with baseline were not significant. Importantly, we showed that preoperative resting-state functional connectivity significantly predicted postoperative changes in processing speed at 1 month after surgery (negative network: ρ = 0.63, P corr = 0.017) and 6 months after surgery (positive network: ρ = 0.62, P corr = 0.010; negative network: ρ = 0.55, P corr = 0.010). We also identified cerebro-cerebellar and cortico-subcortical connectivities that were consistently associated with processing speed. The brain regions identified from our predictive models are not only consistent with previous studies but also extend previous findings by revealing their potential roles in postoperative neurocognitive functions in patients with moyamoya disease. Taken together, our findings provide preliminary evidence that preoperative resting-state functional connectivity might predict the post-surgical longitudinal neurocognitive changes in patients with moyamoya disease. Given that processing speed is a crucial cognitive ability supporting higher neurocognitive functions, this study's findings offer important insight into the clinical management of patients with moyamoya disease.