Microbial markets: socio-economic perspective in studying microbial communities.

Studying microbial communities through a socio-economic lens, this paper draws parallels with human economic transactions and microbes' race for resources. Extending the 'Market Economy' concept of social science to microbial ecosystems, the paper aims to contribute to comprehending the collaborative and competitive dynamics among microorganisms. Created by a multidisciplinary team of an economist, microbiologists, and mathematicians, the paper also highlights the risks involved in employing a socio-economic perspective to explain the complexities of natural ecosystems. Navigating through microbial markets offers insights into the implications of these interactions while emphasizing the need for cautious interpretation within the broader ecological context. We hope that this paper will be a fruitful source of inspiration for future studies on microbial communities.

Hypernetwork modeling and topology of high-order interactions for complex systems.

Interactions among the underlying agents of a complex system are not only limited to dyads but can also occur in larger groups. Currently, no generic model has been developed to capture high-order interactions (HOI), which, along with pairwise interactions, portray a detailed landscape of complex systems. Here, we integrate evolutionary game theory and behavioral ecology into a unified statistical mechanics framework, allowing all agents (modeled as nodes) and their bidirectional, signed, and weighted interactions at various orders (modeled as links or hyperlinks) to be coded into hypernetworks. Such hypernetworks can distinguish between how pairwise interactions modulate a third agent (active HOI) and how the altered state of each agent in turn governs interactions between other agents (passive HOI). The simultaneous occurrence of active and passive HOI can drive complex systems to evolve at multiple time and space scales. We apply the model to reconstruct a hypernetwork of hexa-species microbial communities, and by dissecting the topological architecture of the hypernetwork using GLMY homology theory, we find distinct roles of pairwise interactions and HOI in shaping community behavior and dynamics. The statistical relevance of the hypernetwork model is validated using a series of in vitro mono-, co-, and tricultural experiments based on three bacterial species.

Emergence of cooperation in the one-shot Prisoner's dilemma through Discriminatory and Samaritan AIs.

As artificial intelligence (AI) systems are increasingly embedded in our lives, their presence leads to interactions that shape our behaviour, decision-making and social interactions. Existing theoretical research on the emergence and stability of cooperation, particularly in the context of social dilemmas, has primarily focused on human-to-human interactions, overlooking the unique dynamics triggered by the presence of AI. Resorting to methods from evolutionary game theory, we study how different forms of AI can influence cooperation in a population of human-like agents playing the one-shot Prisoner's dilemma game. We found that Samaritan AI agents who help everyone unconditionally, including defectors, can promote higher levels of cooperation in humans than Discriminatory AI that only helps those considered worthy/cooperative, especially in slow-moving societies where change based on payoff difference is moderate (small intensities of selection). Only in fast-moving societies (high intensities of selection), Discriminatory AIs promote higher levels of cooperation than Samaritan AIs. Furthermore, when it is possible to identify whether a co-player is a human or an AI, we found that cooperation is enhanced when human-like agents disregard AI performance. Our findings provide novel insights into the design and implementation of context-dependent AI systems for addressing social dilemmas.

Convergence of reputations under indirect reciprocity.

Previous research has shown how indirect reciprocity can promote cooperation through evolutionary game theoretic models. Most work in this field assumes a separation of time-scales: individuals' reputations equilibrate at a fast time scale for given frequencies of strategies while the strategies change slowly according to the replicator dynamics. Much of the previous research has focused on the behaviour and stability of equilibria for the replicator dynamics. Here we focus on the underlying reputational dynamics that occur on a fast time scale. We describe reputational dynamics as systems of differential equations and conduct stability analyses on their equilibria. We prove that reputations converge to a unique equilibrium under a solitary observer model for each of the five standard norms and whether assessments are public or private. These results confirm a crucial but previously understudied assumption underlying the theory of indirect reciprocity for the most studied set of norms.

A novel combination therapy for ER+ breast cancer suppresses drug resistance via an evolutionary double-bind.

Chemotherapy remains a commonly used and important treatment option for metastatic breast cancer. A majority of ER+ metastatic breast cancer patients ultimately develop resistance to chemotherapy, resulting in disease progression. We hypothesized that an "evolutionary double-bind", where treatment with one drug improves the response to a different agent, would improve the effectiveness and durability of responses to chemotherapy. This approach exploits vulnerabilities in acquired resistance mechanisms. Evolutionary models can be used in refractory cancer to identify alternative treatment strategies that capitalize on acquired vulnerabilities and resistance traits for improved outcomes. To develop and test these models, ER+ breast cancer cell lineages sensitive and resistant to chemotherapy are grown in spheroids with varied initial population frequencies to measure cross-sensitivity and efficacy of chemotherapy and add-on treatments such as disulfiram combination treatment. Different treatment schedules then assessed the best strategy for reducing the selection of resistant populations. We developed and parameterized a game-theoretic mathematical model from this in vitro experimental data, and used it to predict the existence of a double-bind where selection for resistance to chemotherapy induces sensitivity to disulfiram. The model predicts a dose-dependent re-sensitization (a double-bind) to chemotherapy for monotherapy disulfiram.

An evolutionary differential game for regulating the role of monoclonal antibodies in treating signalling pathways in oesophageal cancer.

This work presents a new framework for a competitive evolutionary game between monoclonal antibodies and signalling pathways in oesophageal cancer. The framework is based on a novel dynamical model that takes into account the dynamic progression of signalling pathways, resistance mechanisms and monoclonal antibody therapies. This game involves a scenario in which signalling pathways and monoclonal antibodies are the players competing against each other, where monoclonal antibodies use Brentuximab and Pembrolizumab dosages as strategies to counter the evolutionary resistance strategy implemented by the signalling pathways. Their interactions are described by the dynamical model, which serves as the game's playground. The analysis and computation of two game-theoretic strategies, Stackelberg and Nash equilibria, are conducted within this framework to ascertain the most favourable outcome for the patient. By comparing Stackelberg equilibria with Nash equilibria, numerical experiments show that the Stackelberg equilibria are superior for treating signalling pathways and are critical for the success of monoclonal antibodies in improving oesophageal cancer patient outcomes.

Modelling the dynamic vaccination game with evolutionary feedback: exploring pairwise interactions and vaccine strategies.

A novel approach rooted in co-evolutionary game theory has been introduced to investigate how the interaction between human decision-making and the dynamics of the epidemic environment can shape vaccine acceptance during disease outbreaks. This innovative framework combines two key game concepts: the cooperation-defection game and the cost-benefit vaccination game. By doing so, it enables us to delve into the various factors that influence the success of a vaccination campaign amid an outbreak. Within this framework, individuals engage in a thorough evaluation of the risks, benefits and incentives associated with either cooperating by getting vaccinated or defecting by refusing the vaccine. Additionally, it involves a careful analysis of the costs and benefits linked to vaccine acceptance. The outcomes of this study stress the importance of two main factors: the effectiveness of the vaccine and the prevalence of a cooperative culture within society. This insight into the strategic interactions between individuals and their decisions about vaccination holds significant implications for public health policymakers. It equips to boost vaccination coverage and address vaccine hesitancy within society ultimately contributing to better public health outcomes during epidemic outbreaks.

Cost Optimisation of Individual-Based Institutional Reward Incentives for Promoting Cooperation in Finite Populations.

In this paper, we study the problem of cost optimisation of individual-based institutional incentives (reward, punishment, and hybrid) for guaranteeing a certain minimal level of cooperative behaviour in a well-mixed, finite population. In this scheme, the individuals in the population interact via cooperation dilemmas (Donation Game or Public Goods Game) in which institutional reward is carried out only if cooperation is not abundant enough (i.e., the number of cooperators is below a threshold 1 ≤ t ≤ N - 1 , where N is the population size); and similarly, institutional punishment is carried out only when defection is too abundant. We study analytically the cases t = 1 for the reward incentive under the small mutation limit assumption and two different initial states, showing that the cost function is always non-decreasing. We derive the neutral drift and strong selection limits when the intensity of selection tends to zero and infinity, respectively. We numerically investigate the problem for other values of t and for population dynamics with arbitrary mutation rates.

Computational evolution of social norms in well-mixed and group-structured populations.

Models of indirect reciprocity study how social norms promote cooperation. In these models, cooperative individuals build up a positive reputation, which in turn helps them in their future interactions. The exact reputational benefits of cooperation depend on the norm in place, which may change over time. Previous research focused on the stability of social norms. Much less is known about how social norms initially evolve when competing with many others. A comprehensive evolutionary analysis, however, has been difficult. Even among the comparably simple space of so-called third-order norms, there are thousands of possibilities, each one inducing its own reputation dynamics. To address this challenge, we use large-scale computer simulations. We study the reputation dynamics of each third-order norm and all evolutionary transitions between them. In contrast to established work with only a handful of norms, we find that cooperation is hard to maintain in well-mixed populations. However, within group-structured populations, cooperation can emerge. The most successful norm in our simulations is particularly simple. It regards cooperation as universally positive, and defection as usually negative-unless defection takes the form of justified punishment. This research sheds light on the complex interplay of social norms, their induced reputation dynamics, and population structure.

Eco-evolutionary dynamics of structured populations in periodically fluctuating environments: a G function approach.

Understanding the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of populations is critical for both basic and applied purposes in a variety of biological contexts. Although several modeling frameworks have been developed to simulate eco-evolutionary dynamics, many fewer address how to model structured populations. In a prior paper, we put forth the first modeling approach to simulate eco-evolutionary dynamics in structured populations under the G function modeling framework. However, this approach does not allow for accurate simulation under fluctuating environmental conditions. To address this limitation, we draw on the study of periodic differential equations to propose a modified approach that uses a different definition of fitness more suitable for fluctuating environments. We illustrate this method with a simple toy model of life history trade-offs. The generality of this approach allows it to be used in a variety of biological contexts.

Game-theoretic analysis of governance and corruption in China's pharmaceutical industry.

Introduction: With the rapid development of China's pharmaceutical industry, issues of corruption and regulatory effectiveness have become increasingly prominent, posing critical challenges to public health safety and the industry's sustainable development. Methods: This paper adopts a bounded rationality perspective and employs a game-theoretic evolutionary approach to establish a tripartite evolutionary game model involving pharmaceutical companies, third-party auditing organizations, and health insurance regulatory agencies. It analyzes the stable strategies of the parties involved and the sensitivity of key parameters within this tripartite game system. Results: The study reveals that adherence to health insurance regulations by pharmaceutical companies, refusal of bribes by third-party auditing organizations, and the implementation of lenient regulations by health insurance agencies can form an effective governance equilibrium. This equilibrium state contributes to reducing corruption in the pharmaceutical industry, balancing the interests of all parties, and promoting healthy industry development. Discussion: Pharmaceutical companies must balance compliance costs against the risks of non-compliance benefits while maximizing profits; third-party auditing organizations need to choose between fulfilling their duties and accepting bribes, considering their economic benefits and professional reputation; health insurance regulatory agencies adjust their strategies between strict and lenient regulation to maximize social welfare. The paper suggests enhancing policy support, strengthening compliance supervision, improving audit independence, and adjusting regulatory strategies to optimize governance in the pharmaceutical industry. Additionally, the research highlights the role of collaborative efforts among the three parties in achieving sustainable governance. Furthermore, the study conducts a numerical simulation analysis to demonstrate the impact of various parameters on the evolutionary stability of the system, providing practical insights into the implementation of regulatory policies. This research offers new insights for policy formulation and governance in China's pharmaceutical sector, providing significant reference value for guiding the industry's sustainable development.

Analysis of production decision-making evolution of steel enterprises under carbon border adjustment mechanism.

This work explored the changes in production decision-making trends of Chinese steel enterprises under the influence of the carbon border adjustment mechanism. First, using evolutionary game theory, the interactive mechanism of complex production strategies among steel enterprises considering the carbon border adjustment mechanism was studied, including the impact of government subsidy coefficients, additional profits and carbon tax prices on enterprise decision-making. Second, the influence of key parameters on the dynamic evolutionary process was analysed. On this basis, the empirical simulation method was used to verify the game model and the main conclusions. Finally, the sensitivity analysis of the selected parameters was determined using Matlab software. The results showed that additional profits from green investment, government subsidy coefficients, input-output values and carbon tax prices had a higher impact on the evolution of enterprise production strategies. The results of this study provide a decision-making basis for the selection of future production methods for steel enterprises.

Theoretical analyses for the evolution of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOC) emission strategy.

Plants emit biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) as signaling molecules, playing a crucial role in inducing resistance against herbivores. Neighboring plants that eavesdrop on BVOC signals can also increase defenses against herbivores or alter growth patterns to respond to potential risks of herbivore damage. Despite the significance of BVOC emissions, the evolutionary rationales behind their release and the factors contributing to the diversity in such emissions remain poorly understood. To unravel the conditions for the evolution of BVOC emission, we developed a spatially explicit model that formalizes the evolutionary dynamics of BVOC emission and non-emission strategies. Our model considered two effects of BVOC signaling that impact the fitness of plants: intra-individual communication, which mitigates herbivore damage through the plant's own BVOC signaling incurring emission costs, and inter-individual communication, which alters the influence of herbivory based on BVOC signals from other individuals without incurring emission costs. Employing two mathematical models-the lattice model and the random distribution model-we investigated how intra-individual communication, inter-individual communication, and spatial structure influenced the evolution of BVOC emission strategies. Our analysis revealed that the increase in intra-individual communication promotes the evolution of the BVOC emission strategy. In contrast, the increase in inter-individual communication effect favors cheaters who benefit from the BVOCs released from neighboring plants without bearing the costs associated with BVOC emission. Our analysis also demonstrated that the narrower the spatial scale of BVOC signaling, the higher the likelihood of BVOC evolution. This research sheds light on the intricate dynamics governing the evolution of BVOC emissions and their implications for plant-plant communication.

Analyzing the use of non-pharmaceutical personal protective measures through self-interest and social optimum for the control of an emerging disease.

Non-pharmaceutical personal protective (NPP) measures such as face masks use, and hand and respiratory hygiene can be effective measures for mitigating the spread of aerosol/airborne diseases, such as COVID-19, in the absence of vaccination or treatment. However, the usage of such measures is constrained by their inherent perceived cost and effectiveness for reducing transmission risk. To understand the complex interaction of disease dynamics and individuals decision whether to adopt NPP or not, we incorporate evolutionary game theory into an epidemic model such as COVID-19. To compare how self-interested NPP use differs from social optimum, we also investigated optional control from a central planner's perspective. We use Pontryagin's maximum principle to identify the population-level NPP uptake that minimizes disease incidence by incurring the minimum costs. The evolutionary behavior model shows that NPP uptake increases at lower perceived costs of NPP, higher transmission risk, shorter duration of NPP use, higher effectiveness of NPP, and shorter duration of disease-induced immunity. Though social optimum NPP usage is generally more effective in reducing disease incidence than self-interested usage, our analysis identifies conditions under which both strategies get closer. Our model provides new insights for public health in mitigating a disease outbreak through NPP.

The evolution of social behaviors and risk preferences in settings with uncertainty.

Humans update their social behavior in response to past experiences and changing environments. Behavioral decisions are further complicated by uncertainty in the outcome of social interactions. Faced with uncertainty, some individuals exhibit risk aversion while others seek risk. Attitudes toward risk may depend on socioeconomic status; and individuals may update their risk preferences over time, which will feedback on their social behavior. Here, we study how uncertainty and risk preferences shape the evolution of social behaviors. We extend the game-theoretic framework for behavioral evolution to incorporate uncertainty about payoffs and variation in how individuals respond to this uncertainty. We find that different attitudes toward risk can substantially alter behavior and long-term outcomes, as individuals seek to optimize their rewards from social interactions. In a standard setting without risk, for example, defection always overtakes a well-mixed population engaged in the classic Prisoner's Dilemma, whereas risk aversion can reverse the direction of evolution, promoting cooperation over defection. When individuals update their risk preferences along with their strategic behaviors, a population can oscillate between periods dominated by risk-averse cooperators and periods of risk-seeking defectors. Our analysis provides a systematic account of how risk preferences modulate, and even coevolve with, behavior in an uncertain social world.

Enhancing vaccination strategies for epidemic control through effective lockdown measures.

Evolutionary epidemiology models have substantially impacted the study of various infections and prevention methods in the biology field. These models are called Susceptible, Lockdown, Vaccinated, Infected, and Recovered (SLVIR) epidemic dynamics. We explore how human behavior, particularly in the context of disease transmission, is influenced by two intervention strategies: vaccination and lockdown, both of which are grounded in the principles of evolutionary game theory (EGT). This comprehensive study using evolutionary game theory delves into the dynamics of epidemics, explicitly focusing on the transition rate from susceptibility to immunity and susceptibility to lockdown measures. Our research involves a thorough analysis of the structural aspects of the SLVIR epidemic model, which delineates disease-free equilibria to ensure stability in the system. Our investigation supports the notion that implementing lockdown measures effectively reduces the required level of vaccinations to curtail the prevalence of new infections. Furthermore, it highlights that combining both strategies is particularly potent when an epidemic spreads rapidly. In regions where the disease spreads comparatively more, our research demonstrates that lockdown measures are more effective in reducing the spread of the disease than relying solely on vaccines. Through significant numerical simulations, our research illustrates that integrating lockdown measures and efficient vaccination strategies can indirectly lower the risk of infection within the population, provided they are both dependable and affordable. The outcomes reveal a nuanced and beneficial scenario where we examine the interplay between the evolution of vaccination strategies and lockdown measures, assessing their coexistence through indicators of average social payoff.

Evolutionary Game Dynamics with Environmental Feedback in a Network with Two Communities.

Recent developments of eco-evolutionary models have shown that evolving feedbacks between behavioral strategies and the environment of game interactions, leading to changes in the underlying payoff matrix, can impact the underlying population dynamics in various manners. We propose and analyze an eco-evolutionary game dynamics model on a network with two communities such that players interact with other players in the same community and those in the opposite community at different rates. In our model, we consider two-person matrix games with pairwise interactions occurring on individual edges and assume that the environmental state depends on edges rather than on nodes or being globally shared in the population. We analytically determine the equilibria and their stability under a symmetric population structure assumption, and we also numerically study the replicator dynamics of the general model. The model shows rich dynamical behavior, such as multiple transcritical bifurcations, multistability, and anti-synchronous oscillations. Our work offers insights into understanding how the presence of community structure impacts the eco-evolutionary dynamics within and between niches.

Persistence in repeated games encourages the evolution of spite.

Social behavior is divided into four types: altruism, spite, mutualism, and selfishness. The former two are costly to the actor; therefore, from the perspective of natural selection, their existence can be regarded as mysterious. One potential setup which encourages the evolution of altruism and spite is repeated interaction. Players can behave conditionally based on their opponent's previous actions in the repeated interaction. On the one hand, the retaliatory strategy (who behaves altruistically when their opponent behaved altruistically and behaves non-altruistically when the opponent player behaved non-altruistically) is likely to evolve when players choose altruistic or selfish behavior in each round. On the other hand, the anti-retaliatory strategy (who is spiteful when the opponent was not spiteful and is not spiteful when the opponent player was spiteful) is likely to evolve when players opt for spiteful or mutualistic behavior in each round. These successful conditional behaviors can be favored by natural selection. Here, we notice that information on opponent players' actions is not always available. When there is no such information, players cannot determine their behavior according to their opponent's action. By investigating the case of altruism, a previous study (Kurokawa, 2017, Mathematical Biosciences, 286, 94-103) found that persistent altruistic strategies, which choose the same action as the own previous action, are favored by natural selection. How, then, should a spiteful conditional strategy behave when the player does not know what their opponent did? By studying the repeated game, we find that persistent spiteful strategies, which choose the same action as the own previous action, are favored by natural selection. Altruism and spite differ concerning whether retaliatory or anti-retaliatory strategies are favored by natural selection; however, they are identical concerning whether persistent strategies are favored by natural selection.

The paradigm of tax-reward and tax-punishment strategies in the advancement of public resource management dynamics.

In contemporary society, the effective utilization of public resources remains a subject of significant concern. A common issue arises from defectors seeking to obtain an excessive share of these resources for personal gain, potentially leading to resource depletion. To mitigate this tragedy and ensure sustainable development of resources, implementing mechanisms to either reward those who adhere to distribution rules or penalize those who do not, appears advantageous. We introduce two models: a tax-reward model and a tax-punishment model, to address this issue. Our analysis reveals that in the tax-reward model, the evolutionary trajectory of the system is influenced not only by the tax revenue collected but also by the natural growth rate of the resources. Conversely, the tax-punishment model exhibits distinct characteristics when compared with the tax-reward model, notably the potential for bistability. In such scenarios, the selection of initial conditions is critical, as it can determine the system's path. Furthermore, our study identifies instances where the system lacks stable points, exemplified by a limit cycle phenomenon, underscoring the complexity and dynamism inherent in managing public resources using these models.

Evolution of Cooperation in Spatio-Temporal Evolutionary Games with Public Goods Feedback.

In biology, evolutionary game-theoretical models often arise in which players' strategies impact the state of the environment, driving feedback between strategy and the surroundings. In this case, cooperative interactions can be applied to studying ecological systems, animal or microorganism populations, and cells producing or actively extracting a growth resource from their environment. We consider the framework of eco-evolutionary game theory with replicator dynamics and growth-limiting public goods extracted by population members from some external source. It is known that the two sub-populations of cooperators and defectors can develop spatio-temporal patterns that enable long-term coexistence in the shared environment. To investigate this phenomenon and unveil the mechanisms that sustain cooperation, we analyze two eco-evolutionary models: a well-mixed environment and a heterogeneous model with spatial diffusion. In the latter, we integrate spatial diffusion into replicator dynamics. Our findings reveal rich strategy dynamics, including bistability and bifurcations, in the temporal system and spatial stability, as well as Turing instability, Turing-Hopf bifurcations, and chaos in the diffusion system. The results indicate that effective mechanisms to promote cooperation include increasing the player density, decreasing the relative timescale, controlling the density of initial cooperators, improving the diffusion rate of the public goods, lowering the diffusion rate of the cooperators, and enhancing the payoffs to the cooperators. We provide the conditions for the existence, stability, and occurrence of bifurcations in both systems. Our analysis can be applied to dynamic phenomena in fields as diverse as human decision-making, microorganism growth factors secretion, and group hunting.