Links between climatic histories and the rise and fall of a Pacific chiefdom.

Sea level rise and climate change are shaping present societies, particularly those on oceanic islands. Few historical examples could serve as references for these changes. One such potential model is the Saudeleur Dynasty with its capital Nan Madol on the Pacific Island of Pohnpei. However, the timing of its construction, as well as the dynasty's fluctuations and potential environmental influences, has remained unresolved. Through the analyses of 230Th ages on 171 dates on corals fragments used as building materials and charcoal 14C ages from excavations, 2 major construction phases spanning from the 10th to the 15th century CE can be discerned. The results show that the first phase of the site's construction, spanning the 10th-12th century, marked the dynasty's rise. The second period, spanning from the late 12th to the early 15th century, provides the most substantial evidence for the demise of the island-scale chiefdom and a significant societal reorganization. The phases are centuries earlier than previously believed. With this new evidence, we propose the hypothesis that variations in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and subsidence-related sea level rise presented major challenges for building and maintaining Nan Madol, and thus, influenced the course of the island's history. This case serves as a compelling example of how adverse climatic conditions can spur investments-in this case, in seawater defense under high sea levels-yet ultimately may contribute to abandonment. It offers lessons for island nations, showcasing coastal resilience in the face of worsening catastrophic events that unfolded over generations.

Navigating the sea level rise: Exploring the interplay of climate change, sea level rise, and coastal communities in india.

This research article investigates the intricate interplay between climate change, global sea level rise (SLR), and the impacts of sea level rise on the coastal regions of India. Through an interdisciplinary approach, this paper provides an overview of the global consequences of SLR on coastal communities, exploring economic, social, and environmental impacts on agriculture, communities, and coastal areas. The study examines the displacement of communities and its impact on food security, infrastructure, tourism, and ecological loss based on a comprehensive literature review. This paper emphasizes the sustainable preservation of coastal ecosystems and the development of climate-resilient infrastructure. This research aims to offer a detailed understanding of the evolving landscape of coastal livelihoods, providing valuable insights for adaptive strategies, policy formulation, and sustainable development. Ultimately, this article contributes to the scientific discourse by shedding light on the complex dynamics between climate change, SLR, and coastal communities, guiding efforts toward a resilient and sustainable future. The insights are drawn from secondary data resources, including books, scholarly journals, and reports from organizations such as the IPCC and NOAA. Based on a thorough review of the relevant literature, it critically examines the existing and potential consequences of sea level rise induced by climate change.

Salinity increases under sea level rise strengthens the chemical protection of SOC in subtropical tidal marshes.

The rise in sea levels due to global warming could significantly impact the soil organic carbon (SOC) pool in coastal tidal marshes by altering soil salinity and flooding conditions. However, the effects of these factors on SOC protection in coastal tidal marshes are not fully understood. In this study, we employed a space-for-time approach to investigate the variations in soil active carbon components and mineral-associated organic carbon under different salinity gradients (freshwater and brackish) and flooding frequencies (high and low tidal flats). The soil organic carbon (SOC) and easily oxidizable organic carbon (EOC) contents at the low-flooding frequency sites were higher than those at the high-flooding frequency sites. The dissolved organic carbon (DOC) content was higher at the high-salinity sites compared to the low-salinity sites, while the soil microbial biomass carbon (MBC) content was higher at the low-salinity sites than at the high-salinity sites. The EOC/SOC and DOC/SOC ratios were greater at the high-salinity sites than at the low-salinity sites, whereas the MBC/SOC ratios were higher at the low-salinity sites than at the high-salinity sites. Iron (Fe) and aluminum (Al) mineral-associated organic carbon [Fe(Al)-OC] and calcium-associated organic carbon (Ca-OC) contents were higher at the high-salinity sites compared to the low-salinity sites, and at the low-flooding frequency sites compared to the high-flooding frequency sites. Meanwhile, Fe(Al)-OC was the dominant fraction among mineral-associated organic carbon at all sites. The dominant phyla of bacterial community included Proteobacteria (49.31 %-66.36 %), Firmicutes (2.67 %-28.44 %), Chloroflexi (3.81 %-9.54 %), and Acidobacteria (4.28 %-7.02 %). In addition, Desulfobacca, a sulfate-reducing bacterium, promoted the formation of mineral-associated organic carbon. Random forest analysis showed that SOC and DOC were key factors in promoting mineral-associated organic carbon formation. Partial least squares path modeling (PLS-PM) indicated that sea level rise affects DOC content by altering soil physicochemical properties, promoting the formation of mineral-associated organic carbon. In summary, while soil organic carbon activity increases, the chemical association of minerals with organic carbon is becoming increasingly crucial for the protection of organic carbon under rising salinity conditions driven by sea level rise.

Functional effects of subsidies and stressors on benthic microbial communities along freshwater to marine gradients.

Leaf litter in coastal wetlands lays the foundation for carbon storage, and the creation of coastal wetland soils. As climate change alters the biogeochemical conditions and macrophyte composition of coastal wetlands, a better understanding of the interactions between microbial communities, changing chemistry, and leaf litter is required to understand the dynamics of coastal litter breakdown in changing wetlands. Coastal wetlands are dynamic systems with shifting biogeochemical conditions, with both tidal and seasonal redox fluctuations, and marine subsidies to inland habitats. Here, we investigated gene expression associated with various microbial redox pathways to understand how changing conditions are affecting the benthic microbial communities responsible for litter breakdown in coastal wetlands. We performed a reciprocal transplant of leaf litter from four distinct plant species along freshwater-to-marine gradients in the Florida Coastal Everglades, tracking changes in environmental and litter biogeochemistry, as well as benthic microbial gene expression associated with varying redox conditions, carbon degradation, and phosphorus acquisition. Early litter breakdown varied primarily by species, with highest breakdown in coastal species, regardless of the site they were at during breakdown, while microbial gene expression showed a strong seasonal relationship between sulfate cycling and salinity, and was not correlated with breakdown rates. The effect of salinity is likely a combination of direct effects, and indirect effects from associated marine subsidies. We found a positive correlation between sulfate uptake and salinity during January with higher freshwater inputs to coastal areas. However, we found a peak of dissimilatory sulfate reduction at intermediate salinity during April when freshwater inputs to coastal sites are lower. The combination of these two results suggests that sulfate acquisition is limiting to microbes when freshwater inputs are high, but that when marine influence increases and sulfate becomes more available, dissimilatory sulfate reduction becomes a key microbial process. As marine influence in coastal wetlands increases with climate change, our study suggests that sulfate dynamics will become increasingly important to microbial communities colonizing decomposing leaf litter.

Beach nourishment for coastal aquifersimpacted by climate change and population growth using machine learning approaches.

Groundwater in coastal regions is threatened by saltwater intrusion (SWI). Beach nourishment is used in this study to manage SWI in the Biscayne aquifer, Florida, USA, using a 3D SEAWAT model nourishment considering the future sea level rise and freshwater over-pumping. The present study focused on the development and comparative evaluation of seven machine learning (ML) models, i.e., additive regression (AR), support vector machine (SVM), reduced error pruning tree (REPTree), Bagging, random subspace (RSS), random forest (RF), artificial neural network (ANN) to predict the SWI using beach nourishment. The performance of ML models was assessed using statistical indicators such as coefficient of determination (R2), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), means absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), and root relative squared error (RRSE) along with the graphical inspection (i.e., Radar and Taylor diagram). The findings indicate that applying SVM, Bagging, RSS, and RF models has great potential in predicting the SWI values with limited data in the study area. The RF model emerged as the best fit and closely matched observed values; it obtained R2 (0.999), NSE (0.999), MAE (0.324), RRSE (0.209), and RMSE (0.416) during the testing process. The present study concludes that the RF model could be a valuable tool for accurate predictions of SWI and effective water management in coastal areas.

Beyond annual metrics: Linking seasonal population dynamics to vertical oyster reef growth.

Oysters are ecosystem engineering species building reef-like biogenic structures in temperate shallow water environments, serving as biodiversity hotspots. Recently, also their ecosystem services such as fish nursery, pollutants sink and self-sustaining coastal protection mechanisms came into a research focus. In light of accelerated sea level rise and increasing environmental dynamics, a determination of vertical growth rates of these biosedimentary structures is paramount in assessing their resilience. This study embarked on a comprehensive survey of seasonal vertical reef growth rates using terrestrial laser scanning and related population dynamics of two intertidal reefs built by the non-native oyster Magallana gigas in the Wadden Sea. We quantified median reef growth at 19.8 mm yr-1 for the Kaiserbalje reef and 17.5 mm yr-1 for the Nordland reef. Additionally, we tested the hypothesis that the seasonal variations in reef growth rates correspond to the local population dynamics, mainly the parameters of shell length and abundance which mirror delayed effects from previous spawning events. Shell growth rates were 0.03-0.06 mm d-1 in winter and 0.10-0.16 mm d-1 in summer, mean oyster abundance from autumn 2019 to spring 2022 was 627 ± 43 ind. m-2 and 338 ± 87 ind. m-2 at the Kaiserbalje and Nordland reefs respectively. Minor reef growth in the topmost reef area reflects an emerging equilibrium of the vertical reef position to actual sea level. Our findings are in accordance with growth of natural Crassostrea virginica reefs on the US East Coast, indicating potential resilience to actual and predicted sea level rise scenarios. Moreover, understanding local hydro-morphodynamic feedback linked to sea level rise will be vital in predicting the three-dimensional stability of these biosedimentary structures and habitats.

Exploring steric sea level variability in the Eastern Tropical Atlantic Ocean: a three-decade study (1993-2022).

Sea level rise (SLR) poses a significant threat to coastal regions worldwide, particularly affecting over 60 million people living below 10 m above sea level along the African coast. This study analyzes the spatio-temporal trends of sea level anomaly (SLA) and its components (thermosteric, halosteric and ocean mass) in the Eastern Tropical Atlantic Ocean (ETAO) from 1993 to 2022. The SLA trend for the ETAO, derived from satellite altimetry, is 3.52 ± 0.47 mm/year, similar to the global average of 3.56 ± 0.67 mm/year. Of the three upwelling regions, the Gulf of Guinea (GoG) shows the highest regional trend of 3.42 ± 0.12 mm/year. Using the ARMORD3D dataset, a positive thermosteric sea level trend of 0.88 ± 0.04 mm/year is observed, particularly in the equatorial and southern Atlantic regions. The steric component drives the interannual SLA variability, while the ocean mass component dominates the long-term trends, as confirmed by the GRACE and GRACE-FO missions for 2002-2022. For those two decades, the total SLR from altimetry amounts to 3.80 ± 0.8 mm/year, whilst the steric component is reduced to only 0.19 ± 0.05 mm/year, leaving a residual increase in the ETAO of 3.69 ± 0.5 mm/year. The independent mass change from GRACE amounts to 2.78 ± 0.6 mm/year for this region, which just closes the sea level budget within present uncertainty levels. Spatial analysis of the steric components indicates a warming along the equatorial African coast including the GoG and a freshening near Angola. Strong correlations with regional climate factors, particularly the Tropical South Atlantic Index, highlight the influence of persistent climate modes. These findings underscore the urgent need for mitigation and adaptation strategies to SLR in the ETAO, especially for densely populated coastal communities.

A lifecycle model approach for predicting mangrove extent.

Tidal dynamics are a well-known driver of mangrove distribution, with most predictive measures using some form of tidal parameter (tidal plane or hydroperiod) to define mangrove extent. However, these methods often fail to consider the causative reason why mangroves thrive or perish at a specific elevation or how mangrove survivability thresholds can differ across a species' lifecycle. The lack of understanding of the drivers influencing mangrove establishment has resulted in poor success rates for mangrove restoration and creation projects worldwide. A novel mangrove lifecycle model that uses a multi-forcing threshold approach is proposed to simulate Avicennia marina viability across establishment and development phases. The lifecycle model includes critical threshold stages for reproduction, seed dispersal, seedling establishment and development, and mature tree survival. The model was validated at 37 sites in eastern Australia to predict mangrove extent across various estuary types and tidal dynamic conditions. The model accurately calculated the upper (RMSE = 0.0676, R2 = 0.8932) and lower (RMSE = 0.0899, R2 = 0.7417) mangrove surface elevations, providing physiological reasoning for establishment and development. Based on the various conditions tested, the model results highlight the highly dynamic spatial and temporal conditions where Avicennia forests thrive. It was found that stressors influencing mangrove establishment were the primary factor for mangrove extent across all sites. However, estuarine typology is important in forcing threshold limits and establishment opportunities. Estuaries with limited tidal decay (from the oceanic forcing) provide more opportunities for mangroves to establish than estuaries with significant tidal attenuation. Regardless of estuary typology, all sites tested had substantial spatial variability through time. Results from the lifecycle model suggest that mature Avicennia forests establish and thrive under a wide range of hydrologic conditions. This resilience suggests that mature mangroves may be able to withstand increases in climatic and hydrologic pressures via biophysical adaptations, although the upper thresholds and acceptable rates of change are difficult to predict. Overall, this study highlights the value of a new causal method for estimating mangrove extent across various lifecycle stages, locations, and time periods.

Wind and rain compound with tides to cause frequent and unexpected coastal floods.

With sea-level rise, flooding in coastal communities is now common during the highest high tides. Floods also occur at normal tidal levels when rainfall overcomes stormwater infrastructure that is partially submerged by tides. Data describing this type of compound flooding is scarce and, therefore, it is unclear how often these floods occur and the extent to which non-tidal factors contribute to flooding. We combine measurements of flooding on roads and within storm drains with a numerical model to examine processes that contribute to flooding in Carolina Beach, NC, USA - a community that chronically floods outside of extreme storms despite flood mitigation infrastructure to combat tidal flooding. Of the 43 non-storm floods we measured during a year-long study period, one-third were unexpected based on the tidal threshold used by the community for flood monitoring. We introduce a novel model coupling between an ocean-scale hydrodynamic model (ADCIRC) and a community-scale surface water and pipe flow model (3Di) to quantify contributions from multiple flood drivers. Accounting for the compounding effects of tides, wind, and rain increases flood water levels by up to 0.4 m compared to simulations that include only tides. Setup from sustained (non-storm) regional winds causes deeper, longer, more extensive flooding during the highest high tides and can cause floods on days when flooding would not have occurred due to tides alone. Rainfall also contributes to unexpected floods; because tides submerge stormwater outfalls on a daily basis, even minor rainstorms lead to flooding as runoff has nowhere to drain. As a particularly low-lying coastal community, Carolina Beach provides a glimpse into future challenges that coastal communities worldwide will face in predicting, preparing for, and adapting to increasingly frequent flooding from compounding tidal and non-tidal drivers atop sea-level rise.

A methodological framework for assessing sea level rise impacts on nitrate loading in coastal agricultural watersheds using SWAT+: A case study of the Tar-Pamlico River basin, North Carolina, USA.

This study addresses the urgent need to understand the impacts of climate change on coastal ecosystems by demonstrating how to use the SWAT+ model to assess the effects of sea level rise (SLR) on agricultural nitrate export in a coastal watershed. Our framework for incorporating SLR in the SWAT+ model includes: (1) reclassifying current land uses to water for areas with elevations below 0.3 m based on SLR projections for mid-century; (2) creating new SLR-influenced land uses, SLR-influenced crop database, and hydrological response units for areas with elevations below 2.4 m; and (3) adjusting SWAT+ parameters for the SLR-influenced areas to simulate the effects of saltwater intrusion on processes such as plant yield and denitrification. We demonstrate this approach in the Tar-Pamlico River basin, a coastal watershed in eastern North Carolina, USA. We calibrated the model for monthly nitrate load at Washington, NC, achieving a Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) of 0.61. Our findings show that SLR substantially alters nitrate delivery to the estuary, with increased nitrate loads observed in all seasons. Higher load increases were noted in winter and spring due to elevated flows, while higher percentage increases occurred in summer and fall, attributed to reduced plant uptake and disrupted nitrogen cycle transformations. Overall, we observed an increase in mean annual nitrate loads from 155,000 kg NO3-N under baseline conditions to 157,000 kg NO3-N under SLR scenarios, confirmed by a statistically significant paired t-test (p = 2.16 × 10-10). This pioneering framework sets the stage for more sophisticated and accurate modeling of SLR impacts in diverse hydrological scenarios, offering a vital tool for hydrological modelers.

Risk assessment of national railway infrastructure due to sea-level rise: an application of a methodological framework in Italian coastal railways.

Nowadays, within the built environment, railway infrastructures play a key role to sustain national policies oriented toward promoting sustainable mobility. For this reason, national institutions and infrastructure managers need to increase their awareness in relation to the current and future climate risks on their representative systems. Among climate change impacts, preventing the effects of sea-level rise (SLR) on coastal railway infrastructures is a priority. The first step in the climate change adaptation policy cycle is the development of an ad hoc climate risk assessment. In this view, this research develops a vulnerability and a risk assessment metric to identify the hotspots within a national coastal railway due to the SLR impacts. The proposed methodology required different steps to quantify the SLR projections and the vulnerability characteristics of the assets, in terms of sensitivity and adaptive capacity. The investigated case study is the coastal railway infrastructure in Italy, thanks to an initial approach of co-design participative processes with the national Infrastructure Manager: Rete Ferroviaria Italiana (RFI). The results of this application, although not included in the paper due to confidential reasons imposed by the infrastructure manager - led to a clear identification of the areas and the coastal railway sections which are exposed to high levels of risks and of the places which require priority actions for urgent adaptation in a view of climate proof infrastructures.

Saltwater intrusion and human health risks for coastal populations under 2050 climate scenarios.

Populations consuming saline drinking water are at greater risk of high blood pressure and potentially other adverse health outcomes. We modelled data and used available datasets to identify countries of higher vulnerability to future saltwater intrusion associated with climate change in 2050 under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP)4.5 and RCP8.5. We developed three vulnerability criteria to capture geographies with: (1) any coastal areas with projected inland saltwater intrusion of ≥ 1 km inland, (2) > 50% of the population in coastal secondary administrative areas with reliance on groundwater for drinking water, and 3) high national average sodium urinary excretion (i.e., > 3 g/day). We identified 41 nations across all continents (except Antarctica) with ≥ 1 km of inland saltwater intrusion by 2050. Seven low- and middle-income countries of higher vulnerability were all concentrated in South/Southeast Asia. Based on these initial findings, future research should study geological nuances at the local level in higher-risk areas and co-produce with local communities contextually appropriate solutions to secure equitable access to clean drinking water.

High-resolution elevation models of Larsen B glaciers extracted from 1960s imagery.

Accelerated warming since the 1950s has caused dramatic change to ice shelves and outlet glaciers on the Antarctic Peninsula. Long observational records of ice loss in Antarctica are rare but essential to accurately inform mass balance estimates of glaciers. Here, we use aerial images from 1968 to reveal glacier configurations in the Larsen B region. We use structure-from-motion photogrammetry to construct high-resolution (3.2 m at best) elevation models covering up to 91% of Jorum, Crane, Mapple, Melville and Flask Glaciers. The historical elevation models provide glacier geometries decades before the Larsen B Ice Shelf collapse in 2002, allowing the determination of pre-collapse and post-collapse elevation differences. Results confirm that these five tributary glaciers of the former Larsen B Ice Shelf were relatively stable between 1968 and 2001. However, the net surface elevation differences over grounded ice between 1968 and 2021 equate to 35.3 ± 1.2 Gt of ice loss related to dynamic changes after the ice shelf removal. Archived imagery is an underutilised resource in Antarctica and was crucial here to observe glacier geometry in high-resolution decades before significant changes to ice dynamics.

Assessing the impact of sea level rise on the Indus delta in Pakistan: A comprehensive analysis of flooded areas and future vulnerabilities.

This research investigates the impact of sea level rise (SLR) on the Indus Delta, a vital ecosystem increasingly vulnerable to climate change repercussions. The objective of this study is to comprehensively assess the flooded areas under various shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) 6th Assessment Report. The study employs a GIS-based bathtub model, utilizing historical (1995-2014) and IPCC-projected (2020-2150) tide gauge data from Karachi, Kandla, and Okha stations to identify potential inundated areas threatened by coastal flooding. Additionally, it analyzes LANDSAT-derived multispectral images to identify coastal erosion hotspots and changes in the landscape. A supervised random forest classifier is used to classify major landforms and understand alterations in land cover. Furthermore, neural network-based cellular automata simulations are applied to predict future land cover for 2050, 2100, and 2150 at risk of inundation. The results indicate that under different SSP scenarios, the estimated inundated land area varies from 307.36 km2 (5 % confidence on SSP1-1.9) to 7150.8 km2 (95 % confidence on SSP5-8.5). By 2150, the region will lose over 550 km2 of agricultural land and 535 km2 of mangroves (mean SLR projection). This work emphasizes identifying sensitive land cover for SLR-induced coastal flooding. It might fuel future policy and modeling endeavors to reduce SLR uncertainty and build effective coastal inundation mitigation methods.

Climate hazards and psychological health among coastal communities in the Asia-Pacific region: a systematic review of quantitative and qualitative evidence.

This systematic review assesses the relationship between climate induced coastal hazards and psychological well-being of communities in the Asia-Pacific region. The review synthesises findings from 13 peer-reviewed articles published between 2007 and 2020, encompassing data from seven countries: Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Philippines, Solomon Islands, Tuvalu, and Vietnam. Results reveals a robust negative association between exposure to coastal hazards and psychological outcomes, notably stress, depression, anxiety, and distress. Most of the studies (77%) corroborate negative impacts of coastal hazards on psychological health. Additionally, 69% of the reviewed articles suggest a correlation between coastal hazards and negative outcomes for community livelihoods and essential resources. The review highlights increased psychological vulnerability among marginalised subpopulations, such as economically disadvantaged communities, a trend supported by 92% of the examined articles. The findings indicates that factors such as environmental vulnerability, resource availability, community traits, and coping methods are important in determining whether a community can effectively handle coastal hazards or face increased psychological health risks. This research aligns with international health frameworks, including the World Health Organization's Health Emergency and Disaster Risk Management guidelines. However, a notable research gap emerges - the absence of studies that specifically explore psychological responses of communities to ongoing climate-related coastal hazards, such as sea-level rise. These findings emphasise an urgent need for targeted research to guide comprehensive, multidisciplinary policy interventions aimed at mitigating the psychological and socio-economic repercussions of climate-related coastal hazards.

Significant challenges to the sustainability of the California coast considering climate change.

Climate change is an existential threat to the environmental and socioeconomic sustainability of the coastal zone and impacts will be complex and widespread. Evidence from California and across the United States shows that climate change is impacting coastal communities and challenging managers with a plethora of stressors already present. Widespread action could be taken that would sustain California's coastal ecosystems and communities. In this perspective, we highlight the main threat to coastal sustainability: the compound effects of episodic events amplified with ongoing climate change, which will present unprecedented challenges to the state. We present two key challenges for California's sustainability in the coastal zone: 1) accelerating sea-level rise combined with storm impacts, and 2) continued warming of the oceans and marine heatwaves. Cascading effects from these types of compounding events will occur within the context of an already stressed system that has experienced extensive alterations due to intensive development, resource extraction and harvesting, spatial containment, and other human use pressures. There are critical components that could be used to address these immediate concerns, including comanagement strategies that include diverse groups and organizations, strategic planning integrated across large areas, rapid implementation of solutions, and a cohesive and policy relevant research agenda for the California coast. Much of this has been started in the state, but the scale could be increased, and timelines accelerated. The ideas and information presented here are intended to help expand discussions to sharpen the focus on how to encourage sustainability of California's iconic coastal region.

Enhancing human resilience against climate change: Assessment of hydroclimatic extremes and sea level rise impacts on the Eastern Shore of Virginia, United States.

Coastal regions face climate-induced threats that have likely increased over the past four decades. In this work, we quantify the future climate impacts on hydroclimatic extremes in the risk-prone, 15-m-above-sea-level Eastern Shore of Virginia (ESVA) region, utilizing the Sixth International Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) Assessment Report 6 (AR6) and General Circulation Models (GCMs). We incorporate historical data on demographics and disasters, land use land cover (LULC), Landsat imagery, and sea level rise (SLR) to better understand and highlight the correlation between hydroclimatic extremes and societal components in this region. The hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI), and Interquartile Range (IQR) method have been used to evaluate the intensity and frequency of projected climate extremes, in which SLR projections under different greenhouse gas emission pathways are temporally and spatially quantified. Our findings include (1) a trend towards wetter conditions is found with an increase in the number of flood events and up to an 8.9 % rise in the severity of flood peaks compared to the 2003-2020 period; (2) current coastal high-risk regions, identified using historical data of natural disasters, demographics, and LULC, are projected to be more susceptible to future climate impacts; and (3) low-lying coastal towns and regions are identified as currently vulnerable to coastal and SLR-induced flooding and are projected to become even more susceptible by 2100. This is the first effort that provides a valuable scientific basis for anticipated shifts in future climate patterns, essential for natural hazard prevention in ESVA. It highlights the need for authorities and decision-makers to plan and implement adaptive strategies and sustainable policies for the ESVA region and other coastal areas across the United States.

Organic matter composition and stability in estuarine wetlands depending on soil salinity.

Coastal wetlands are key players in mitigating global climate change by sequestering soil organic matter. Soil organic matter consists of less stable particulate organic matter (POM) and more stable mineral-associated organic matter (MAOM). The distribution and drivers of MAOM and POM in coastal wetlands have received little attention, despite the processes and mechanisms differ from that in the upland soils. We explored the distribution of POM and MAOM, their contributions to SOM, and the controlling factors along a salinity gradient in an estuarine wetland. In the estuarine wetland, POM C and N were influenced by soil depth and vegetation type, whereas MAOM C and N were influenced only by vegetation type. In the estuarine wetland, SOM was predominantly in the form of MAOM (> 70 %) and increased with salinity (70 %-76 %), leading to long-term C sequestration. Both POM and MAOM increased with SOM, and the increase rate of POM was higher than that of MAOM. Aboveground plant biomass decreased with increasing salinity, resulted in a decrease in POM C (46 %-81 %) and N (52 %-82 %) pools. As the mineral amount and activity, and microbial biomass decreased, the MAOM C (2.5 %-64 %) and N pool (8.6 %-59 %) decreased with salinity. When evaluating POM, the most influential factors were microbial biomass carbon (MBC) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC). Key parameters, including MBC, DOC, soil salinity, soil water content, aboveground plant biomass, mineral content and activity, and bulk density, were identified as influencing factors for both MAOM abundance. Soil water content not only directly controlled MAOM, but together with salinity also indirectly regulated POM and MAOM by controlling microbial biomass and aboveground plant biomass. Our findings have important implications for improving the accumulation and increased stability of soil organic matter in coastal wetlands, considering the global sea level rise and increased frequency of inundation.

Three Reconstructions of 'Effectiveness': Some Implications for State Continuity and Sea-level Rise.

Small Island Developing States (SIDS) are uniquely threatened by rising sea levels. Not only does the retreat of their coastlines place them in danger of losing maritime territory; the concurrent possibility of their landmasses becoming either uninhabitable or completely submerged also threatens their very existence. According to one understanding of the law that governs the continuity and extinction of states, political communities that permanently lose 'effectiveness'-typically understood as sufficient governmental control of a relatively determinate territory with a permanent population-must lose their statehood as well. In this article, I provide three reconstructions of effectiveness, each of which rests upon a different normative rationale. My contention is that, regardless of which reconstruction one adopts, the continuity of submerged SIDS is eminently supportable, notwithstanding the arguments frequently made in favour of their formal extinction.

Examining sea levels forecasting using autoregressive and prophet models.

Global climate change in recent years has resulted in significant changes in sea levels at both global and local scales. Various oceanic and climatic factors play direct and indirect roles in influencing sea level changes, such as temperature, ocean heat, and Greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions. This study examined time series analysis models, specifically Autoregressive Moving Average (ARIMA) and Facebook's prophet, in forecasting the Global Mean Sea Level (GMSL). Additionally, Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model was utilized to investigate the influence of selected oceanic and climatic factors contributing to sea level rise, including ocean heat, air temperature, and GHG emissions. Moreover, the models were applied to regional sea level data from the Arabian Gulf, which experienced higher fluctuations compared to GMSL. Results showed the capability of autoregressive models in long-term forecasting, while the Prophet model excelled in capturing trends and patterns in the time series over extended periods of time.