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1.
PLoS One ; 19(10): e0309757, 2024.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39446805

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Climate change is widely recognised to threaten human health, wellbeing and livelihoods, including through its effects on the emergence, spread and burdens of climate-and water-sensitive infectious diseases. However, the scale and mechanisms of the impacts are uncertain and it is unclear whether existing forecasting capacities will foster successful local-level adaptation planning, particularly in climate vulnerable regions in developing countries. The purpose of this scoping review was to characterise and map priority climate- and water-sensitive diseases, map existing forecasting and surveillance systems in climate and health sectors and scope out the needs and potential to develop integrated climate-driven early warning forecasting systems for long-term adaptation planning and interventions in the south Asia region. METHODS: We searched Web of Science Core Collection, Scopus and PubMed using title, abstract and keywords only for papers focussing on climate-and water-sensitive diseases and explicit mention of either forecasting or surveillance systems in south Asia. We conducted further internet search of relevant national climate adaptation plans and health policies affecting disease management. We identified 187 studies reporting on climate-sensitive diseases and information systems in the south Asia context published between 1992 and 2024. RESULTS: We found very few robust, evidenced-based forecasting systems for climate- and water- sensitive infectious diseases, which suggests limited operationalisation of decision-support tools that could inform actions to reduce disease burdens in the region. Many of the information systems platforms identified focussed on climate-sensitive vector-borne disease systems, with limited tools for water-sensitive diseases. This reveals an opportunity to develop tools for these neglected disease groups. Of the 34 operational platforms identified across the focal countries, only 13 (representing 38.2%) are freely available online and all were developed and implemented by the human health sector. Tools are needed for other south Asian countries (Afghanistan, Sri Lanka, Bhutan) where the risks of infectious diseases are predicted to increase substantially due to climate change, drought and shifts in human demography and use of ecosystems. CONCLUSION: Altogether, the findings highlight clear opportunities to invest in the co-development and implementation of contextually relevant climate-driven early warning tools and research priorities for disease control and adaptation planning.


Assuntos
Mudança Climática , Previsões , Humanos , Ásia/epidemiologia , Previsões/métodos , Ásia Meridional
2.
PLoS Negl Trop Dis ; 18(10): e0011834, 2024 Oct.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39405333

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Diarrhoeal diseases cause a heavy burden in developing countries. Although studies have described the seasonality of diarrhoeal diseases, the association of weather variables with diarrhoeal diseases has not been well characterized in resource-limited settings where the burden remains high. We examined short-term associations between ambient temperature, precipitation and hospital visits due to diarrhoea among children in seven low- and middle-income countries. METHODOLOGY: Hospital visits due to diarrhoeal diseases under 5 years old were collected from seven sites in The Gambia, Mali, Mozambique, Kenya, India, Bangladesh, and Pakistan via the Global Enteric Multicenter Study from December 2007 to March 2011. Daily weather data during the same period were downloaded from the ERA5-Land. We fitted time-series regression models to examine the relationships of daily diarrhoea cases with daily ambient temperature and precipitation. Then, we used meta-analytic tools to examine the heterogeneity between the site-specific estimates. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The cumulative relative risk (RR) of diarrhoea for temperature exposure (95th percentile vs. 1st percentile) ranged from 0.24 to 8.07, with Mozambique and Bangladesh showing positive associations, while Mali and Pakistan showed negative associations. The RR for precipitation (95th percentile vs. 1st percentile) ranged from 0.77 to 1.55, with Mali and India showing positive associations, while the only negative association was observed in Pakistan. Meta-analysis showed substantial heterogeneity in the association between temperature-diarrhoea and precipitation-diarrhoea across sites, with I2 of 84.2% and 67.5%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Child diarrhoea and weather factors have diverse and complex associations across South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. Diarrhoeal surveillance system settings should be conceptualized based on the observed pattern of climate change in these locations.


Assuntos
Diarreia , Temperatura , Humanos , Diarreia/epidemiologia , África Subsaariana/epidemiologia , Pré-Escolar , Lactente , Países em Desenvolvimento , Chuva , Masculino , Recém-Nascido , Feminino , Ásia/epidemiologia , Estações do Ano , Ásia Meridional
3.
Clinics (Sao Paulo) ; 79: 100497, 2024.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39284275

RESUMO

INTRODUCTION: Candida auris is a globally disseminated invasive ascomycetous yeast, that imposes a substantial burden on healthcare systems. It has been documented to have spread to over 40 countries across six continents, necessitating in-depth comprehension through advanced techniques like Whole-Genome Sequencing. METHOD: This study entailed the isolation and Whole-Genome Sequencing of a fluconazole-resistant C. auris strain (CA01) obtained from a patient's blood in Beijing. Genome analysis was conducted to classify the strain, and molecular docking was performed to understand the impact of mutations on drug resistance. RESULTS: Genome analysis revealed that CA01 belongs to the South Asia Clade (I) and shares the closest genetic relationship with previously reported strains BJCA001 and BJCA002. Notably, unlike BJCA001, CA01 exhibits significant resistance to fluconazole primarily due to the A395T mutation in the ERG11 gene. Molecular docking studies demonstrated that this mutation leads to geometric changes in the active site where fluconazole binds, resulting in decreased binding affinity. Additionally, the present findings have identified several core virulence genes in C. auris, such as RBF1. DISCUSSION: The findings from this study expand the understanding of the genetic diversity and adaptive mechanisms of C. auris within the South Asia Clade (I). The observed fluconazole resistance driven by the ERG11 mutation A395T highlights the need for heightened awareness and adaptation in clinical treatment strategies in China. This study provides critical insights into drug resistance and virulence profiles at a genetic level, which could guide future therapeutic and management strategies for C. auris infections.


Assuntos
Antifúngicos , Candida auris , Farmacorresistência Fúngica , Fluconazol , Humanos , Farmacorresistência Fúngica/genética , Antifúngicos/farmacologia , Antifúngicos/uso terapêutico , Fluconazol/farmacologia , Fluconazol/uso terapêutico , Virulência/genética , Candida auris/genética , Candida auris/efeitos dos fármacos , Candida auris/patogenicidade , Testes de Sensibilidade Microbiana , Mutação , Pequim , Simulação de Acoplamento Molecular , Candidíase/microbiologia , Candidíase/tratamento farmacológico , Sequenciamento Completo do Genoma , Ásia Meridional
4.
J Environ Manage ; 369: 122290, 2024 Oct.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39236607

RESUMO

This research investigates the intricate relationships between economic variables and how they affect South Asian nation's ability to develop sustainably. Given the growing concerns about climate change and global warming brought on by emissions of greenhouse gases, this study looks into the connection between emissions of CO2, green energy, industrialization, foreign direct investment, economic globalization, and financial development from 1995 to 2022. Second-generation panel techniques were employed in this study to look at the relationship between variables because of the potential of residual cross-sectional dependency and heterogeneity. The empirical outcomes display that green energy, economic globalization, and financial development reduce CO2 emissions by 1.839%, 1.223%, and 3.902% respectively. Industrialization and foreign direct investment degrade the environment by 4.302% and 1.893% respectively. A bidirectional causality link between green energy, industrialization, economic globalization, and CO2 emissions was found by Dumitrescu and Hurlin (D-H). Based on our findings, we recommend legislative support for renewable energy, cleaner technologies, and strict environmental regulations, aligning with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Encouraging FDI, sustainable practices, and financial development can drive economic growth while preserving the environment. As we approach COP28, this holistic approach to sustainable development becomes increasingly vital for South Asian countries to achieve their SDG targets and combat climate change.


Assuntos
Mudança Climática , Internacionalidade , Desenvolvimento Sustentável , Ásia , Desenvolvimento Industrial , Investimentos em Saúde , Dióxido de Carbono/análise , Aquecimento Global , Desenvolvimento Econômico , Ásia Meridional
5.
J Health Popul Nutr ; 43(1): 140, 2024 Sep 09.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39252085

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are a global epidemic challenging global public health authorities while imposing a heavy burden on healthcare systems and economies. AIM: To explore and compare the prevalence of NCDs in South Asia, the Caribbean, and non-sub-Saharan Africa, aiming to identify both commonalities and differences contributing to the NCD epidemic in these areas while investigating potential recommendations addressing the NCD epidemic. METHOD: A comprehensive search of relevant literature was carried out to identify and appraise published articles systematically using the Cochrane Library, Ovid, Google Scholar, PubMed, Science Direct, and Web of Science search engines between 2010 and 2023. A total of 50 articles fell within the inclusion criteria. RESULTS: Numerous geographical variables, such as lifestyle factors, socio-economic issues, social awareness, and the calibre of the local healthcare system, influence both the prevalence and treatment of NCDs. The NCDs contributors in the Caribbean include physical inactivity, poor fruit and vegetable intake, a sedentary lifestyle, and smoking, among others. While for South Asia, these were: insufficient societal awareness of NCDs, poverty, urbanization, industrialization, and inadequate regulation implementation in South Asia. Malnutrition, inactivity, alcohol misuse, lack of medical care, and low budgets are responsible for increasing NCD cases in Africa. CONCLUSION: Premature mortality from NCDs can be avoided using efficient treatments that reduce risk factor exposure for individuals and populations. Proper planning, implementation, monitoring, training, and research on risk factors and challenges of NCDs would significantly combat the situation in these regions.


Assuntos
Doenças não Transmissíveis , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , África/epidemiologia , Ásia/epidemiologia , Ásia Meridional , Região do Caribe/epidemiologia , Estilo de Vida , Doenças não Transmissíveis/epidemiologia , Prevalência , Fatores de Risco , Comportamento Sedentário , Fatores Socioeconômicos
6.
Curr Atheroscler Rep ; 26(11): 639-648, 2024 Nov.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39240492

RESUMO

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Health data sciences can help mitigate high burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) management in South Asia by increasing availability and affordability of healthcare services. This review explores the current landscape, challenges, and strategies for leveraging digital health technologies to improve CVD outcomes in the region. RECENT FINDINGS: Several South Asian countries are implementing national digital health strategies that aim to provide unique health account numbers for patients, creating longitudinal digital health records while others aim to digitize healthcare services and improve health outcomes. Significant challenges impede progress, including lack of interoperability, inadequate training of healthcare workers, cultural barriers, and data privacy concerns. Leveraging digital health for CVD management involves using big data for early detection, employing artificial intelligence for diagnostics, and integrating multiomics data for health insights. Addressing these challenges through policy frameworks, capacity building, and international cooperation is crucial for improving CVD outcomes in region.


Assuntos
Doenças Cardiovasculares , Humanos , Doenças Cardiovasculares/terapia , Doenças Cardiovasculares/epidemiologia , Ásia/epidemiologia , Ciência de Dados/métodos , Telemedicina , Big Data , Saúde Digital , Ásia Meridional
7.
Indian J Pharmacol ; 56(4): 285-289, 2024 Jul 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39250626

RESUMO

ABSTRACT: The manuscript summarizes the outcomes of a one-day conference by the South Asian College of American College of Clinical Pharmacology (SAC-ACCP) in July 2023, at Bhopal. The theme of the conference was "Advancing pediatric drug development in South Asia." SAC-ACCP organized this event in Bhopal to foster the discipline of clinical pharmacology and to motivate researchers and physicians in the in the central part of India. The conference featured presentations on regional approaches to pediatric drug development in Asia by pediatric scientific experts from the pharmaceutical industry, regulatory agencies, as well as independent consultancies. The speakers highlighted several important aspects of the evolving regulatory landscape in India and proposed numerous actionable steps in acceleration of pediatric drug development. This commentary provides insights from presentations and the panel discussion at this conference and also makes an attempt to connect to similar discussions that occurred at the SAC-ACCP drug development conference in 2017.


Assuntos
Desenvolvimento de Medicamentos , Pediatria , Humanos , Criança , Ásia , Índia , Indústria Farmacêutica , Farmacologia Clínica/tendências , Ásia Meridional
8.
Diabetes Metab Syndr ; 18(7): 103094, 2024 Jul.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39111199

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Clinical practice guidelines (CPGs) are a helpful tool for the evidence-based management of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2D). The aim of this systematic review was to synthesize and appraise the scope and quality of South Asian T2D CPGs. METHODS: This PROPSERO registered (CRD42023425150) systematic review adhered to the 2020 PRISMA guidelines. We searched the PubMed, Embase, Cochrane, and Google Scholar databases for relevant guidelines. Data synthesis was performed using a qualitative approach and methodological quality was assessed using the Appraisal of Guidelines for Research and Evaluation (AGREE) II tool. RESULTS: We identified eleven unique CPGs (three each from Pakistan and Sri Lanka, two from India, and one each from Bangladesh, Nepal, and Bhutan) which were published or updated between 2017 and 2023. The CPGs included recommendations regarding screening, diagnosis, prevention, and management of T2D and its acute and chronic complications, comorbidities, and fasting with T2D. The AGREE II mean domain scores ranged from 37 % to 80 %; three CPGs were 'recommended for clinical use,' seven were 'recommended for use with modifications' and one was deemed unfit for implementation. CONCLUSION: The present review summarized and appraised broadly CPGs from South Asia for T2D and can help direct improvements to future iterations.


Assuntos
Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2 , Guias de Prática Clínica como Assunto , Humanos , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2/terapia , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2/epidemiologia , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2/diagnóstico , Guias de Prática Clínica como Assunto/normas , Gerenciamento Clínico , Ásia/epidemiologia , Prognóstico , Sri Lanka/epidemiologia , Ásia Meridional
9.
Lancet Glob Health ; 12(10): e1720-e1729, 2024 Oct.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39178875

RESUMO

South Asia is rapidly urbanising. The strains of rapid urbanisation have profound implications for the health and equity of urban populations. This Series paper examines primary health care (PHC) in south Asian cities. Health and its social determinants vary considerably across south Asian cities and substantial socioeconomic inequities are present. Although cities offer easy geographical access to PHC services, financial hardship associated with health care use and low quality of care are a concern, particularly for low-income residents. Providing better PHC in south Asia requires a multi-sectoral response, with effective and resourced urban local bodies; increased public financing for health care; and new service delivery models aimed at low-income urban communities that involve strengthening public sector services, strengthening government engagement with private providers where necessary, and engaging with low-income communities and the PHC providers that serve them.


Assuntos
Atenção Primária à Saúde , Saúde da População Urbana , Humanos , Atenção Primária à Saúde/organização & administração , Ásia , Acessibilidade aos Serviços de Saúde , Ásia Meridional
11.
Lancet Glob Health ; 12(10): e1693-e1705, 2024 Oct.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39178880

RESUMO

The south Asian region (SAR) is home to 1·74 billion people, corresponding to 22% of the global population. The region faces several challenges pertaining to changing epidemiology, rapid urbanisation, and social and economic concerns, which affect health outcomes. Primary health care (PHC) is a cost-effective strategy to respond to these challenges through integrated service delivery, multi-sectoral action, and empowered communities. The PHC approach has historically been an important cornerstone of health policy in SAR countries. However, the region is yet to fully reap the benefits of PHC-oriented health systems. Our introductory paper in this Lancet Series on PHC in the SAR describes the existing PHC delivery structure in five SAR nations (ie, Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka) and critically appraises PHC performance to identify its enablers and barriers. The paper proposes investing in a shared culture of innovation and collaboration for revitalisation of PHC in the region.


Assuntos
Atenção Primária à Saúde , Humanos , Atenção Primária à Saúde/organização & administração , Nepal , Ásia , Índia , Sri Lanka , Bangladesh , Paquistão , Política de Saúde , Ásia Meridional
12.
Glob Heart ; 19(1): 68, 2024.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39185007

RESUMO

Stroke causes around 730,000 deaths in South Asia, nearly half of stroke-related deaths in developing countries. This highlights the need to address health system responses, considering poverty, service quality, and availability. The article identifies four key challenges in stroke management and rehabilitation in South Asia, emphasizing long-term monitoring, risk factor control, and community surveillance, drawing on experiences from Nepal.


Assuntos
Acidente Vascular Cerebral , Humanos , Acidente Vascular Cerebral/epidemiologia , Acidente Vascular Cerebral/terapia , Acidente Vascular Cerebral/prevenção & controle , Ásia/epidemiologia , Fatores de Risco , Nepal/epidemiologia , Países em Desenvolvimento , Reabilitação do Acidente Vascular Cerebral/métodos , Ásia Meridional
13.
Glob Public Health ; 19(1): 2380845, 2024 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39074440

RESUMO

The ubiquity of public-space sexual harassment (PSH) of women in the global South, particularly in South Asia, is both a public health and gender equity issue. This study examined men's experiences with and perspectives on PSH of women in three countries with shared cultural norms and considerable gender inequalities - Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan. The three-country survey in 2021-2022 was completed by 237 men who were generally young, urban, single, well-educated, and middle-/high-income. Among the 53.3% who witnessed PSH, 80% reported intervening to stop it or help the victim. A substantial share of men worried about PSH, and bore emotional, time, and financial costs as they took precautionary or restorative measures to help women in their families avoid PSH or deal with its consequences. Most respondents articulated potential gains for men, women, and society if PSH no longer existed. However, a non-negligible share of participants held patriarchal gender attitudes that are often used to justify harassment, and a small share did not favour legal and community sanctions. Many called for stricter legal sanctions and enforcement, culture change, and education. Men's perspectives offer insights for prevention of harassment and mitigation of its consequences.


Assuntos
Assédio Sexual , Humanos , Masculino , Adulto , Feminino , Inquéritos e Questionários , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Paquistão , Adulto Jovem , Adolescente , Bangladesh , Índia , Ásia Meridional
14.
Glob Heart ; 19(1): 53, 2024.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38947253

RESUMO

Background: The objective of this study is to conduct a temporal analysis of rheumatic heart disease (RHD) disease burden trends over a 30-year period (1991 to 2021), focusing on prevalence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in the South Asia (SA). Methods: In this ecological study, we analyzed data regarding burden of RHD from the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) study spanning the years 1991 to 2021 for the SA Region. Estimates of the number RHD-related prevalence, deaths, and DALYs along with age-standardized rates (ASR) per 100,000 population and 95% uncertainty intervals (UI) were evaluated. Results: The overall prevalent cases of RHD in the 2021 were 54785.1 × 103 (43328.4 × 103 to 67605.5 × 103), out of which 14378.8 × 103 (11206.9 × 103 to 18056.9 × 103) were from SA. The ASR of point prevalence showed upward trend between 1991 and 2021, at global level and for SA with an average annual percentage change (AAPC) of 0.40 (0.39 to 0.40) and 0.12 (0.11 to 0.13), respectively. The overall number of RHD-related deaths in the 2021 were 373.3 × 103 (324.1 × 103 to 444.8 × 103), out of which 215 × 103 (176.9 × 103 to 287.8 × 103) were from SA, representing 57.6% of the global deaths. The ASR of deaths also showed downward trend between 1991 and 2021, at global level and for SA with an AAPC of -2.66 (-2.70 to -2.63) and -2.07 (-2.14 to -2.00), respectively. The ASR of DALYs showed downward trend between 1990 and 2019, at global level and for South Asian region with an AAPC of -2.47 (-2.49 to -2.44) and -2.22 (-2.27 to -2.17), respectively. Conclusion: The rising age-standardized prevalence of RHD remains a global concern, especially in South Asia which contribute to over 50% of global RHD-related deaths. Encouragingly, declining trends in RHD-related deaths and DALYs hint at progress in RHD management and treatment on both a global and regional scale.


Assuntos
Carga Global da Doença , Cardiopatia Reumática , Humanos , Cardiopatia Reumática/epidemiologia , Cardiopatia Reumática/mortalidade , Carga Global da Doença/tendências , Masculino , Feminino , Prevalência , Adulto , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Ásia/epidemiologia , Efeitos Psicossociais da Doença , Anos de Vida Ajustados por Deficiência/tendências , Anos de Vida Ajustados por Qualidade de Vida , Estudos Retrospectivos , Ásia Meridional
16.
BMC Pregnancy Childbirth ; 24(1): 451, 2024 Jun 29.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38951766

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (HDP) are a significant cause of maternal mortality worldwide. The classification and treatment of hypertension in pregnancy remain debated. We aim to compare the effectiveness of the revised 2017 ACC/AHA blood pressure threshold in predicting adverse pregnancy outcomes. METHODS: We conducted a secondary data analysis of the Alliance for Maternal and Newborn Health Improvement (AMANHI) biorepository study, including 10,001 pregnant women from Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Tanzania. Blood pressure was measured using validated devices at different antenatal care visits. The blood pressure readings were categorized as: normal blood pressure (systolic blood pressure (sBP) < 120 mm Hg and diastolic blood pressure (dBP) < 80 mm Hg), elevated blood pressure (sBP 120-129 and dBP < 80), stage 1 hypertension (sBP 130-139 or dBP 80-89, or both), and stage 2 hypertension (sBP ≥ 140 or dBP ≥ 90, or both). We estimated risk ratios for stillbirths and preterm births, as well as diagnostic test properties of both the pre-existing JNC7 (≥ 140/90) and revised ACC/AHA (≥ 130/80) thresholds using normal blood pressure as reference group. RESULTS: From May 2014 to June 2018, blood pressure readings were available for 9,448 women (2,894 in Bangladesh, 2,303 in Pakistan, and 4,251 in Tanzania). We observed normal blood pressure in 70%, elevated blood pressure in 12.4%, stage 1 hypertension in 15.2%, and stage 2 hypertension in 2.5% of the pregnant women respectively. Out of these, 310 stillbirths and 9,109 live births were recorded, with 887 preterm births. Using the ACC/AHA criteria, the stage 1 hypertension cut-off revealed 15.3% additional hypertension diagnoses as compared to JNC7 criteria. ACC/AHA defined hypertension was significantly associated with stillbirths (RR 1.8, 95% CI 1.4, 2.3). The JNC 7 hypertension cut-off of ≥ 140/90 was significantly associated with a higher risk of preterm births (RR 1.6, 95% CI 1.2, 2.2) and stillbirths (RR 3.6, 95% CI 2.5, 5.3). Both criteria demonstrated low sensitivities (8.4 for JNC-7 and 28.1 for ACC/AHA) and positive predictive values (11.0 for JNC7 and 5.2 for ACC/AHA) in predicting adverse outcomes. CONCLUSION: The ACC/AHA criteria (≥ 130/80) identified additional cases of hypertension but had limited predictive accuracy for stillbirths and preterm births, highlighting the ongoing need for improved criteria in managing pregnancy-related hypertension.


Assuntos
Hipertensão Induzida pela Gravidez , Guias de Prática Clínica como Assunto , Nascimento Prematuro , Natimorto , Humanos , Feminino , Gravidez , Nascimento Prematuro/epidemiologia , Natimorto/epidemiologia , Adulto , Hipertensão Induzida pela Gravidez/diagnóstico , Hipertensão Induzida pela Gravidez/epidemiologia , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Paquistão/epidemiologia , Estudos de Coortes , American Heart Association , Bangladesh/epidemiologia , Tanzânia/epidemiologia , Adulto Jovem , Pressão Sanguínea , Recém-Nascido , Ásia Meridional
17.
J Environ Manage ; 366: 121764, 2024 Aug.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38981269

RESUMO

This study investigated the impact of climate change on flood susceptibility in six South Asian countries Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Bharat (India), Nepal, and Pakistan-under two distinct Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios: SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-5.8, for 2041-2060 and 2081-2100. To predict flood susceptibility, we employed three artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms: the K-nearest neighbor (KNN), conditional inference random forest (CIRF), and regularized random forest (RRF). Predictions were based on data from 2452 historical flood events, alongside climatic variables measured over monthly, seasonal, and annual timeframes. The innovative aspect of this research is the emphasis on using climatic variables across these progressively condensed timeframes, specifically addressing eight precipitation factors. The performance evaluation, employing the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) metric, identified the RRF model as the most accurate, with the highest AUC of 0.94 during the testing phase, followed by the CIRF (AUC = 0.91) and the KNN (AUC = 0.86). An analysis of variable importance highlighted the substantial role of certain climatic factors, namely precipitation in the warmest quarter, annual precipitation, and precipitation during the wettest month, in the modeling of flood susceptibility in South Asia. The resultant flood susceptibility maps demonstrated the influence of climate change scenarios on susceptibility classifications, signalling a dynamic landscape of flood-prone areas over time. The findings revealed variable trends under different climate change scenarios and periods, with marked differences in the percentage of areas classified as having high and very high flood susceptibility. Overall, this study advances our understanding of how climate change affects flood susceptibility in South Asia and offers an essential tool for assessing and managing flood risks in the region.


Assuntos
Algoritmos , Inteligência Artificial , Mudança Climática , Inundações , Ásia Meridional
18.
Sci Total Environ ; 949: 175003, 2024 Nov 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39053552

RESUMO

Food adulteration with toxic chemicals is a global public health threat. Lead chromate adulterated spices have been linked with lead poisoning in many countries, from Bangladesh to the United States. This study systematically assessed lead chromate adulteration in turmeric, a spice that is consumed daily across South Asia. Our study focused on four understudied countries that produce >80 % of the world's turmeric and collectively include 1.7 billion people, 22 % of the world's population. Turmeric samples were collected from wholesale and retail bazaars from 23 major cities across India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Nepal between December 2020 and March 2021. Turmeric samples were analyzed for lead and chromium concentrations and maximum child blood lead levels were modeled in regions where samples had detectable lead. A total of 356 turmeric samples were collected, including 180 samples of dried turmeric roots and 176 samples of turmeric powder. In total, 14 % of the samples (n = 51) had detectable lead above 2 µg/g. Turmeric samples with lead levels greater than or equal to 18 µg/g had molar ratios of lead to chromium near 1:1, suggestive of lead chromate adulteration. Turmeric lead levels exceeded 1000 µg/g in Patna (Bihar, India) as well as Karachi and Peshawar (Pakistan), resulting in projected child blood lead levels up to 10 times higher than the CDC's threshold of concern. Given the overwhelmingly elevated lead levels in turmeric from these locations, urgent action is needed to halt the practice of lead chromate addition in the turmeric supply chain.


Assuntos
Curcuma , Contaminação de Alimentos , Chumbo , Humanos , Ásia Meridional , Cromatos/análise , Curcuma/química , Contaminação de Alimentos/análise , Índia , Chumbo/análise , Chumbo/sangue , Nepal , Paquistão , Sri Lanka , Criança
19.
JMIR Public Health Surveill ; 10: e53331, 2024 Aug 26.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-39013116

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: This study updates our findings from the COVID-19 pandemic surveillance we first conducted in South Asia in 2020 with 2 additional years of data for the region. We assess whether COVID-19 had transitioned from pandemic to endemic at the point the World Health Organization (WHO) ended the public health emergency status for COVID-19 on May 5, 2023. OBJECTIVE: First, we aim to measure whether there was an expansion or contraction in the pandemic in South Asia around the WHO declaration. Second, we use dynamic and genomic surveillance methods to describe the history of the pandemic in the region and situate the window of the WHO declaration within the broader history. Third, we aim to provide historical context for the course of the pandemic in South Asia. METHODS: In addition to updating the traditional surveillance data and dynamic panel estimates from our original study, this study used data on sequenced SARS-CoV-2 variants from the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID) to identify the appearance and duration of variants of concern. We used Nextclade nomenclature to collect clade designations from sequences and Pangolin nomenclature for lineage designations of SARS-CoV-2. Finally, we conducted a 1-sided t test to determine whether regional weekly speed or transmission rate per 100,000 population was greater than an outbreak threshold of 10. We ran the test iteratively with 6 months of data across the sample period. RESULTS: Speed for the region had remained below the outbreak threshold for over a year by the time of the WHO declaration. Acceleration and jerk were also low and stable. While the 1-day persistence coefficients remained statistically significant and positive (1.168), the 7-day persistence coefficient was negative (-0.185), suggesting limited cluster effects in which cases on a given day predict cases 7 days forward. Furthermore, the shift parameters for either of the 2 most recent weeks around May 5, 2023, did not indicate any overall change in the persistence measure around the time of the WHO declaration. From December of 2021 onward, Omicron was the predominant variant of concern in sequenced viral samples. The rolling t test of speed equal to 10 was statistically insignificant across the entire pandemic. CONCLUSIONS: While COVID-19 continued to circulate in South Asia, the rate of transmission had remained below the outbreak threshold for well over a year ahead of the WHO declaration. COVID-19 is endemic in the region and no longer reaches the threshold of the pandemic definition. Both standard and enhanced surveillance metrics confirm that the pandemic had ended by the time of the WHO declaration. Prevention policies should be a focus ahead of future pandemics. On that point, policy should emphasize an epidemiological task force with widespread testing and a contact-tracing system.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Humanos , Ásia/epidemiologia , SARS-CoV-2 , Pandemias , Vigilância da População/métodos , Ásia Meridional
20.
BMC Public Health ; 24(1): 1497, 2024 Jun 04.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38834946

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Many ethnic minorities in Hong Kong seek medical tourism after encountering inequalities in access to local healthcare because of language barriers and cultural-religious differences. The present study explored the ethnic minorities' lived experiences of medical tourism and issues arising from cross-border health-seeking relevant to this specific population. METHODS: Qualitative in-depth interviews with 25 ethnic minority informants from five South Asian countries in 2019. RESULTS: The 19 informants out of the 25 have sought assistance from their international networks for home remedies, medical advice and treatments of traditional/Western medicines, for they are more costly or unavailable in Hong Kong and for issues related to racial discrimination, language barriers, transnationalism engagement, cultural insensitivity, and dissatisfaction with healthcare services in Hong Kong. DISCUSSION: Medical tourism can relieve the host country's caring responsibilities from healthcare services, so the government might no longer be hard-pressed to fix the failing healthcare system. Consequently, it could cause public health concerns, such as having patients bear the risks of exposure to new pathogens, the extra cost from postoperative complications, gaps in medical documentation and continuum of care, etc. It also triggers global inequities in health care, exacerbating unequal distribution of resources among the affordable and non-affordable groups. CONCLUSION: Ethnic minorities in Hong Kong sought cross-border healthcare because of structural and cultural-religious issues. The surge of medical tourism from rich and developed countries to poor and developing countries may infringe upon the rights of residents in destination countries. To mitigate such negative impacts, policymakers of host countries should improve hospital infrastructure, as well as train and recruit more culturally sensitive healthcare workers to promote universal health coverage. Healthcare professionals should also strive to enhance their cultural competence to foster effective intercultural communication for ethnic minority groups.


Assuntos
Minorias Étnicas e Raciais , Acessibilidade aos Serviços de Saúde , Turismo Médico , Aceitação pelo Paciente de Cuidados de Saúde , Adulto , Idoso , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Adulto Jovem , Minorias Étnicas e Raciais/estatística & dados numéricos , Etnicidade/psicologia , Etnicidade/estatística & dados numéricos , Acessibilidade aos Serviços de Saúde/estatística & dados numéricos , Hong Kong/epidemiologia , Entrevistas como Assunto , Turismo Médico/psicologia , Turismo Médico/estatística & dados numéricos , Grupos Minoritários/psicologia , Grupos Minoritários/estatística & dados numéricos , Aceitação pelo Paciente de Cuidados de Saúde/etnologia , Aceitação pelo Paciente de Cuidados de Saúde/psicologia , Aceitação pelo Paciente de Cuidados de Saúde/estatística & dados numéricos , Saúde Pública , Pesquisa Qualitativa , População do Sul da Ásia/etnologia , População do Sul da Ásia/estatística & dados numéricos , Ásia Meridional/etnologia
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