MR-SPLIT: A novel method to address selection and weak instrument bias in one-sample Mendelian randomization studies.

Mendelian Randomization (MR) is a widely embraced approach to assess causality in epidemiological studies. Two-stage least squares (2SLS) method is a predominant technique in MR analysis. However, it can lead to biased estimates when instrumental variables (IVs) are weak. Moreover, the issue of the winner's curse could emerge when utilizing the same dataset for both IV selection and causal effect estimation, leading to biased estimates of causal effects and high false positives. Focusing on one-sample MR analysis, this paper introduces a novel method termed Mendelian Randomization with adaptive Sample-sPLitting with cross-fitting InstrumenTs (MR-SPLIT), designed to address bias issues due to IV selection and weak IVs, under the 2SLS IV regression framework. We show that the MR-SPLIT estimator is more efficient than its counterpart cross-fitting MR (CFMR) estimator. Additionally, we introduce a multiple sample-splitting technique to enhance the robustness of the method. We conduct extensive simulation studies to compare the performance of our method with its counterparts. The results underscored its superiority in bias reduction, effective type I error control, and increased power. We further demonstrate its utility through the application of a real-world dataset. Our study underscores the importance of addressing bias issues due to IV selection and weak IVs in one-sample MR analyses and provides a robust solution to the challenge.

Serum amyloid A for predicting prognosis in patients with newly diagnosed Crohn's disease.

OBJECTIVE: Serum amyloid A (SAA) was found to be positively correlated with the activity of Crohn's disease (CD); however, its prognostic value remains uncertain. Here, we examined its predictive ability in newly diagnosed CD and explored genetic association. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study included patients newly diagnosed as CD at the First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University between June 2010 and March 2022. We employed receiver operating characteristic curve, Cox proportional hazard regression models and restricted cubic splines to investigate the prognostic performance of SAA for surgery and disease progression. To assess possible causality, a two-sample Mendelian randomisation (MR) of published genome-wide association study data was conducted. RESULTS: During 2187.6 person-years (median age, 28 years, 72.4% male), 87 surgery and 153 disease progression events were documented. A 100-unit increment in SAA level generated 14% higher risk for surgery (adjusted HR (95% CI): 1.14 (1.05-1.23), p=0.001) and 12% for disease progression (1.12 (1.05-1.19), p<0.001). Baseline SAA level ≥89.2 mg/L led to significantly elevated risks for surgery (2.08 (1.31-3.28), p=0.002) and disease progression (1.72 (1.22-2.41), p=0.002). Such associations were assessed as linear. Adding SAA into a scheduled model significantly improved its predictive performances for surgery and disease progression (p for net reclassification indexes and integrated discrimination indexes <0.001). Unfortunately, no genetic causality between SAA and CD was observed in MR analysis. Sensitivity analyses showed robust results. CONCLUSION: Although causality was not found, baseline SAA level was an independent predictor of surgery and disease progression in newly diagnosed CD, and had additive benefit to existing prediction models.

The causal effect of telomere length on the risk of malignant lymphoma: A Mendelian randomization study.

Telomere length (TL) has been implicated in the risk assessment of numerous cancers in observational studies. Nevertheless, the relationship between TL and malignant lymphoma remains unclear, displaying inconsistent patterns across different studies. A summary dataset for genome-wide association study of TL and malignant lymphoma was acquired from the OpenGWAS website. An extensive 2-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis was performed, encompassing various methodologies such as MR-Egger, weighted median, weighted mode, simple mode, and the primary method of inverse-variance weighting (IVW). Sensitivity evaluations were performed using the Cochran Q test, MR-Egger regression, and leave-one-out analysis. The main method IVW revealed that TL substantially increased the risk of Hodgkin lymphoma (HL; odds ratio [OR] = 2.135; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.181-3.859; P = .012). Both the IVW and weighted median methods indicated statistical associations between genetically predicted TL and other types of non-HL (OR = 1.671, 95% CI = 1.009-2.768, P = .045; OR = 2.310, 95% CI = 1.033-5.169, P = .042). However, there was no association between TL and diffuse large B-cell lymphoma, follicular lymphoma, or mature T/natural Killer-cell lymphoma, and sensitivity analysis revealed no heterogeneity or horizontal pleiotropy, indicating that the causal effect was robust. Our study shows that TL plays different roles in different types of lymphomas. A longer TL significantly increases the risk of HL and other types of non-HL.

Causal association of epigenetic age acceleration and risk of subacute thyroiditis: a bidirectional Mendelian randomization study.

BACKGROUND: Epigenetic age accelerations (EAAs) are a promising new avenue of research, yet their investigation in subacute thyroiditis (SAT) remains scarce. Our study endeavors to fill this void by exploring the potential causal association between EAAs and SAT. METHODS: Our study utilized publicly available genome-wide association study (GWAS) data of European ancestry to conduct a bidirectional Mendelian randomization (MR) study. Five MR methods were employed to measure causal association between EAAs and SAT multiple analyses were utilized to perform quality control. RESULTS: Our study evaluated causal association between SAT and four EAAs, included GrimAge acceleration (GrimAA), Hannum age acceleration (HannumAA), PhenoAge acceleration (PhenoAA), intrinsic epigenetic age acceleration (IEAA). Results showed that there is a significant causal association between PhenoAA and SAT (OR 1.109, 95% CI 1.000-1.228, p = 0.049, by IVW method). On the contrary, SAT was associated with IEAA (OR 0.933, 95% CI 0.884-0.984, p = 0.011, by IVW method; OR 0.938, 95% CI 0.881-0.998, p = 0.043, by weighted median method). Leave-one-out sensitivity analysis, heterogeneity test, pleiotropy test, and MR-PRESSO analysis provide good quality control. CONCLUSION: The bidirectional MR analysis concluded that an increase in PhenoAA was correlated with a higher risk of SAT, indicating a potential causal relationship between PhenoAA and risk of SAT. Conversely, SAT was found to be closely associated with IEAA, suggesting that SAT may accelerate the aging process. Slowing down biological aging has emerged as a new research direction in curbing SAT.

Sarcopenia as a predictor of nutritional status and comorbidities: a cross-sectional and mendelian randomization study.

BACKGROUND: With the advancement of world population aging, age-related sarcopenia (SP) imposes enormous clinical burden on hospital. Clinical research of SP in non-geriatric wards has not been appreciated, necessitating further investigation. However, observational studies are susceptible to confounders. Mendelian randomization (MR) can effectively mitigate bias to assess causality. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the correlation between SP and comorbidities in orthopedic wards, and subsequently infer the causality, providing a theoretical basis for developing strategies in SP prevention and treatment. METHODS: Logistic regression models were employed to assess the correlation between SP and comorbidities. The MR analysis was mainly conducted with inverse variance weighted, utilizing data extracted from the UK and FinnGen biobank (Round 9). RESULTS: In the cross-sectional analysis, SP exhibited significant associations with malnutrition (P = 0.013) and some comorbidities, including osteoporosis (P = 0.014), body mass index (BMI) (P = 0.021), Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) (P = 0.006). The MR result also provided supporting evidence for the causality between SP and hypertension, osteoporosis and BMI. These results also withstood multiple sensitivity analyses assessing the validity of MR assumptions. CONCLUSION: The result indicated a significant association between SP and BMI, CCI, malnutrition, and osteoporosis. We highlighted that SP and comorbidities deserved more attention in non-geriatric wards, urging further comprehensive investigation.

Causal Association Between Atopic Dermatitis and Keratoconus: A Mendelian Randomization Study.

Purpose: Although many studies have indicated that atopic dermatitis (AD) could contribute to the risk of keratoconus (KC), the causality between AD and KC remains controversial. This study aimed to explore the potential causal associations between AD and KC. Methods: Instrumental variables for both exposures and outcomes were obtained from large-scale genome-wide association study summary statistics from previous meta-analyses. Mendelian randomization (MR) was applied to infer causal associations between AD and KC. Our main analyses were conducted by inverse-variance weighted (IVW) method multiplicative random effect model, complemented with additional five models and sensitivity analyses. Reverse MR analysis was applied to determine the direction of the causal association between AD and KC. Results: Both IVW and weighted median methods revealed a causal effect of AD on KC (IVW odds ratio [OR], 1.475; P = 4.16 × 10-4; weighted median OR, 1.351; P = 7.65 × 10-3). The weighted mode, simple mode, and MR Egger methods demonstrated consistent direction of causality. Evidence from all sensitivity analyses further supported these associations. Reverse MR analyses did not suggest causal effects of KC on AD. Conclusions: This study supported a significant causal effect of AD on KC, and reverse MR analysis proved that the causal association was unilateral. Translational Relevance: This study provides valid evidence that regular ophthalmic examinations are recommended for patients with AD to detect and prevent KC at an early stage.

Addressing the credibility crisis in Mendelian randomization.

BACKGROUND: Genome-wide association studies have enabled Mendelian randomization analyses to be performed at an industrial scale. Two-sample summary data Mendelian randomization analyses can be performed using publicly available data by anyone who has access to the internet. While this has led to many insightful papers, it has also fuelled an explosion of poor-quality Mendelian randomization publications, which threatens to undermine the credibility of the whole approach. FINDINGS: We detail five pitfalls in conducting a reliable Mendelian randomization investigation: (1) inappropriate research question, (2) inappropriate choice of variants as instruments, (3) insufficient interrogation of findings, (4) inappropriate interpretation of findings, and (5) lack of engagement with previous work. We have provided a brief checklist of key points to consider when performing a Mendelian randomization investigation; this does not replace previous guidance, but highlights critical analysis choices. Journal editors should be able to identify many low-quality submissions and reject papers without requiring peer review. Peer reviewers should focus initially on key indicators of validity; if a paper does not satisfy these, then the paper may be meaningless even if it is technically flawless. CONCLUSIONS: Performing an informative Mendelian randomization investigation requires critical thought and collaboration between different specialties and fields of research.

Reclaiming mendelian randomization from the deluge of papers and misleading findings.

Mendelian randomization (MR) is a powerful epidemiological method for causal inference. However, its recent surge in popularity has brought two concerning trends. First, the public availability of summary results from genome-wide association studies has led to an explosion of low-quality two-sample mendelian randomization (2SMR) studies. These studies add minimal - if any - value and overwhelm reviewers and journals. Second, the availability of large datasets with individual-level genotype data, like UK Biobank, has spurred the development and use of novel MR methods. However, some methods are being applied without proper testing, leading to misleading results, as exemplified by recent spurious findings that are being retracted and/or corrected relating to vitamin D. What can editors and peer reviewers do to handle the deluge of 2SMR studies and the premature application of highly complex MR methods? We advise editors to simply reject papers that only report 2SMR findings, with no additional supporting evidence. For reviewers receiving such papers, we provide a template for rejection. In addition, reviewers should demand rigorous testing of novel methods, including through the use of positive and negative controls before they are applied. Rejecting non-contributory 2SMR papers and imposing intensive scrutiny to novel methods is crucial if the scientific community is to reclaim MR.

The impact of tea consumption on the risk of depression: A Mendelian randomization and Bayesian weighting algorithm study.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: The precise impact of tea consumption on the risk of depression remains unclear. This study aimed to explore the relationship between the consumption patterns of tea and the likelihood of depression onset, utilizing a two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) methodology. METHODS AND STUDY DESIGN: We utilized available genome-wide association study (GWAS) datasets on tea intake and depressive disorders. To investigate the causal relationship between tea consumption and depression, we employed a set of two-sample Mendelian Randomization (MR) methods. These included the inverse-variance weighted (IVW) analysis, weighted median approach, and MR-Egger regression. Additionally, we utilized MR-PRESSO and the MR-Egger intercept test for the detection of pleiotropic effects. To ensure the robustness and consistency of our findings, a sensitivity analysis was carried out, applying the 'leave-one-out' strategy. The Bayesian weighted Mendelian randomization (BWMR) was employed to conduct additional testing on the obtained results. RESULTS: The study's outcomes revealed a causal association between increased tea intake and an increased risk of depression (Inverse-Variance Weighted Analysis: Odds Ratio [OR] = 1.029, 95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 1.003-1.055, p = 0.027). This was observed despite variations in instrumental variables and the nonexistence of horizontal pleiotropy. Furthermore, the robustness of our Mendelian Randomization investigation was affirmed through the implementation of the 'leave-one-out' method in our sensitivity analysis. The findings from BWMR were in line with those obtained from IVW (BWMR: OR=1.030, 95% CI: 1.003-1.057, p = 0.029). CONCLUSIONS: The results from this study indicate a substantial and positive causal link between the regularity of tea drinking and the risk of depression onset.

pyTWMR: transcriptome-wide Mendelian randomization in python.

MOTIVATION: Mendelian randomization (MR) is a widely used approach to estimate causal effect of variation in gene expression on complex traits. Among several MR-based algorithms, transcriptome-wide summary statistics-based Mendelian Randomization approach (TWMR) enables the uses of multiple SNPs as instruments and multiple gene expression traits as exposures to facilitate causal inference in observational studies. RESULTS: Here we present a Python-based implementation of TWMR and revTWMR. Our implementation offers GPU computational support for faster computations and robust computation mode resilient to highly correlated gene expressions and genetic variants. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: pyTWMR is available at github.com/soreshkov/pyTWMR.

Correlation between inflammatory cytokines and the likelihood of developing multiple types of digestive system cancers: A Mendelian randomization study.

OBJECTIVE: Inflammatory cytokines have been linked to digestive system cancers, yet their exact causal connection remains uncertain. Consequently, we conducted a Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis to gauge how inflammatory cytokines are linked to the risk of five prevalent digestive system cancers (DSCs). METHODS: We collected genetic variation data for 41 inflammatory cytokines from genome-wide association studies (GWAS), and the results data for five common diseases from the Finnish database. Our primary analytical approach involved employing the inverse-variance weighted, residual sum (IVW) method, complemented by the MR-Egger method, the weighted median method, simple mode analysis, and weighted mode analysis as supplementary analytical techniques. Furthermore, we conducted multiple sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: Tumor necrosis factor-related apoptosis-inducing ligand (TRAIL), macrophage colony-stimulating factor (M-CSF), and interleukin (IL)-18 showed a negative association with the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma. Conversely, TRAIL was inversely linked to the risk of gastric cancer, while IL-16 exhibited a positive correlation with gastric cancer risk. Stem cell factor (SCF) acted as a protective factor against pancreatic cancer. For colorectal cancer, IL-7, IL-9, IL-13, and vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) were identified as risk factors. Notably, our results did not indicate a significant correlation between inflammatory cytokines and the risk of esophageal cancer. CONCLUSION: Our research unveils potential connections between 41 inflammatory cytokines and the risk of five common DSCs through a MR analysis. These associations offer valuable insights that could aid in the development of diagnostic biomarkers and the identification of novel therapeutic targets for DSCs.

Genetic Influence of Oily Fish Intake on Age-Related Macular Degeneration Risk: A Two-Sample Mendelian Randomization Analysis.

Purpose: Emerging research indicates a link between the intake of fatty fish and age-related macular degeneration (AMD). However, observational studies fall short in establishing a direct causal link between oily fish intake and AMD. We wanted to determine whether causal association lies between oily fish intake and age-related macular degeneration (AMD) risk in human beings. Methods: This two-sample mendelian randomization (MR) study used the MR method to probe the genetic causality in the relationship between oily fish intake and AMD. The genome-wide association study (GWAS) data for AMD were acquired from a Finnish database, whereas the data on fish oil intake came from the UK Biobank. The analysis used several approaches such as inverse-variance weighted (IVW), MR Egger, weighted median, simple mode, and weighted mode MR. In addition, the Cochran's Q test was used to evaluate heterogeneity in the MR data. The MR-Egger intercept and MR-pleiotropy residual sum and outlier (MR-PRESSO) tests were used to assess the presence of horizontal pleiotropy. A leave-one-out sensitivity analysis was conducted to determine the reliability of the association. Results: The IVW method revealed that the intake of oily fish is an independent risk factor for AMD (P = 0.034). It also suggested a minimal likelihood of horizontal pleiotropy affecting the causality (P > 0.05), with no substantial heterogeneity detected in the genetic variants (P > 0.05). The leave-one-out analysis confirmed the reliability and stability of this correlation. Conclusions: This research used a two-sample MR analysis to provide evidence of a genetic causal relationship between the eating of oily fish and AMD. This discovery held potential significance in AMD prevention.

Causal effects of skin microbiota on intervertebral disk degeneration, low back pain and sciatica: a two-sample Mendelian randomization study.

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study is to use two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) to investigate the causal relationship between skin microbiota, especially Propionibacterium acnes, and intervertebral disc degeneration (IVDD), low back pain (LBP) and sciatica. METHODS: We conducted a two-sample MR using the aggregated data from the whole genome-wide association studies (GWAS). 150 skin microbiota were derived from the GWAS catalog and IVDD, LBP and sciatica were obtained from the IEU Open GWAS project. Inverse-variance weighted (IVW) was the primary research method, with MR-Egger and Weighted median as supplementary methods. Perform sensitivity analysis and reverse MR analysis on all MR results and use multivariate MR to adjust for confounding factors. RESULTS: MR revealed five skin microbiota associated with IVDD, four associated with LBP, and two with sciatica. Specifically, P.acnes in sebaceous skin environments were associated with reduced risk of IVDD; IVDD was found to increase the abundance of P.acnes in moist skin. Furthermore, ASV010 [Staphylococcus (unc.)] from dry skin was a risk factor for LBP and sciatica; ASV045 [Acinetobacter (unc.)] from dry skin and Genus Rothia from dry skin exhibited potential protective effects against LBP; ASV065 [Finegoldia (unc.)] from dry skin was a protective factor for IVDD and LBP. ASV054 [Enhydrobacter (unc.)] from moist skin, Genus Bacteroides from dry skin and Genus Kocuria from dry skin were identified as being associated with an increased risk of IVDD. Genus Streptococcus from moist skin was considered to be associated with an increased risk of sciatica. CONCLUSIONS: This study identified a potential causal relationship between skin microbiota and IVDD, LBP, and sciatica. No evidence suggests skin-derived P.acnes is a risk factor for IVDD, LBP and sciatica. At the same time, IVDD can potentially cause an increase in P.acnes abundance, which supports the contamination theory.

Mendelian randomization implicates causal association between epigenetic age acceleration and age-related eye diseases or glaucoma endophenotypes.

BACKGROUND: Age-related eye diseases (AREDs) have become increasingly prevalent with the aging population, serving as the leading causes of visual impairment worldwide. Epigenetic clocks are generated based on DNA methylation (DNAm) levels and are considered one of the most promising predictors of biological age. This study aimed to investigate the bidirectional causal association between epigenetic clocks and common AREDs or glaucoma endophenotypes. METHODS: Instrumental variables for epigenetic clocks, AREDs, and glaucoma endophenotypes were obtained from corresponding genome-wide association study data of European descent. Bidirectional two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) was employed to explore the causal relationship between epigenetic clocks and AREDs or glaucoma endophenotypes. Multivariable MR (MVMR) was used to determine whether glaucoma endophenotypes mediated the association of epigenetic clocks with glaucoma. Multiple sensitivity analyses were conducted to confirm the robustness of MR estimates. RESULTS: The results showed that an increased intrinsic epigenetic age acceleration (HorvathAge) was significantly associated with an increased risk of primary open-angle glaucoma (OR = 1.04, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.06, P = 6.1E-04). The epigenetic age acceleration (EEA) of HannumAge was related to a decreased risk of primary angle-closure glaucoma (OR = 0.92, 95% CI 0.86 to 0.99, P = 0.035). Reverse MR analysis showed that age-related cataract was linked to decreased HannumAge (ß = -0.190 year, 95% CI -0.374 to -0.008, P = 0.041). The EEA of HannumAge (ß = -0.85 µm, 95% CI -1.57 to -0.14, P = 0.019) and HorvathAge (ß = -0.63 µm, 95% CI -1.18 to -0.08, P = 0.024) were associated with decreased central corneal thickness (CCT). PhenoAge was related to an increased retinal nerve fiber layer thickness (ß = 0.06 µm, 95% CI 0.01 to 0.11, P = 0.027). MVMR analysis found no mediation effect of CCT in the association of HannumAge and HorvathAge with glaucoma. DNAm-based granulocyte proportions were significantly associated with presbyopia, rhegmatogenous retinal detachment, and intraocular pressure (P < 0.05). DNAm-based plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 levels were significantly related to age-related macular degeneration and intraocular pressure (P < 0.05). CONCLUSION: The present study revealed a causal association between epigenetic clocks and AREDs. More research is warranted to clarify the potential mechanisms of the biological aging process in AREDs.

Biological aging mediates the association between periodontitis and cardiovascular disease: results from a national population study and Mendelian randomization analysis.

BACKGROUND: The relationship between periodontitis and cardiovascular disease (CVD) has been extensively studied, but the role of biological aging in this relationship remains poorly understood. This study is dedicated to investigating the effect of periodontitis on the incidence of CVD and to elucidating the potential mediating role of biological aging. Furthermore, this study will seek to elucidate the causal association between periodontitis, CVD, and biological aging. METHODS: We included 3269 participants from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2009-2014) with diagnostic information on periodontitis and composite CVD events. Biological aging was evaluated by utilizing both the Klemera-Doubal method's calculated biological age (KDMAge) and phenotypic age (PhenoAge). Logistic regression, restricted cubic spline (RCS) analysis, and subgroup analysis were used for data analysis. Mediation analysis was employed to explore the mediating role of biological aging. Subsequently, Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses were performed using genome-wide association study databases to explore potential causal relationships between periodontitis, CVD, and biological aging. RESULTS: Periodontitis was associated with a higher risk of CVD. Participants with periodontitis were found to have increased levels of biological aging, and elevated levels of biological aging were associated with increased CVD risk. Mediation analyses showed a partial mediating effect of biological aging (PhenoAge: 44.6%; KDMAge: 22.9%) between periodontitis and CVD risk. MR analysis showed that periodontitis played a causal role in increasing the risk of small vessel stroke, while myocardial infarction was found to increase the risk of periodontitis. In addition, reverse MR analysis showed that phenotypic aging can increase the risk of periodontitis, and there is a two-way causal relationship between CVD and biological aging. CONCLUSIONS: Periodontitis is associated with an increased CVD risk, partially mediated by biological aging, with a complex causal interrelationship. Targeted interventions for periodontal health may slow the biological aging processes and reduce CVD risk.

Mendelian randomization analysis reveals the combined effects of epigenetics and telomere biology in hematologic cancers.

BACKGROUND: Telomere shortening and epigenetic modifications are key factors in aging and hematologic diseases. This study investigates the relationship of telomere length and epigenetic age acceleration (EAA) with hematologic cancers, blood cells, and biochemical markers through the epigenetic clocks. METHODS: This study primarily utilizes genome-wide association studies of populations of European descent as instrumental variables, exploring the causal relationships between exposures and outcomes through a bidirectional two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) approach. MR techniques include inverse variance weighted (IVW), MR Egger, and weighted median modes. Heterogeneity and pleiotropy in MR are assessed using Cochran's Q test and the MR Egger intercept, with the robustness of the conclusions further validated by multivariable MR (MVMR). RESULTS: Our research shows that longer telomere lengths significantly increase the risk of multiple myeloma, leukemia, and lymphoma (OR > 1, P < 0.05) and establish a causal relationship between telomere length and red blood cell indices such as RBC (OR = 1.121, PIVW = 0.034), MCH (OR = 0.801, PIVW = 2.046e-06), MCV (OR = 0.801, PIVW = 0.001), and MCHC (OR = 0.813, PIVW = 0.002). Additionally, MVMR analysis revealed an association between DNA methylation PhenoAge acceleration and alkaline phosphatase (OR = 1.026, PIVW = 0.007). CONCLUSION: The study clarifies the relationships between telomere length, EAA, and hematological malignancies, further emphasizing the prognostic significance of telomere length and EAA. This deepens our understanding of the pathogenesis of hematological diseases, which can inform risk assessment and therapeutic strategies.