Introduction of the modern 3d modeling method into the theory and practice of forensic medicine ballistics, caused by gunshot wounds inflicted by firearms with 9mm caliber ammunition.

OBJECTIVE: Aim: To explore the capabilities of the modern 3D modeling method for various elements of gunshot wounds caused by 9 mm caliber bullets, intending to integrate these findings into the theory and practice of forensic medicine. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Materials and Methods: The research began with a series of experimental shots, during which the morphological features were examined through their 3D spatial reconstruction. The entire series of experimental shots was conducted using an automatic pistol IZH 70-01 equipped with 9.0 mm caliber bullets. The ballistic clay Roma Plastilina No.1, manufactured in the USA, was utilized as a material for conducting standard ballistic tests according to the standards of the NIJ (National Institute of Justice) and HOSDB (Home Office Scientific Development Branch). RESULTS: Results: The research was continued during the performance of forensic examinations involving actual cases of gunshot injuries. The dimensions of individual elements of the wound channel were measured in both experimental and expert cases using conventional measuring tools, as well as after their 3D modeling, utilizing graphic editors such as "Agisoft Photoscan" and "3ds max". CONCLUSION: Conclusions: In the course of creating and studying experimental and expert 3D models, the dimensions of individual morphological elements of the wound channel were recorded with an accuracy that exceeded the results obtained through measurements using traditional measurement methods by ten times.

A machine-learning prediction model to identify risk of firearm injury using electronic health records data.

IMPORTANCE: Firearm injuries constitute a public health crisis. At the healthcare encounter level, they are, however, rare events. OBJECTIVE: To develop a predictive model to identify healthcare encounters of adult patients at increased risk of firearm injury to target screening and prevention efforts. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Electronic health records data from Kaiser Permanente Southern California (KPSC) were used to identify healthcare encounters of patients with fatal and non-fatal firearm injuries, as well as healthcare visits of a sample of matched controls during 2010-2018. More than 170 predictors, including diagnoses, healthcare utilization, and neighborhood characteristics were identified. Extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) and a split sample design were used to train and test a model that predicted risk of firearm injury within the next 3 years at the encounter level. RESULTS: A total of 3879 firearm injuries were identified among 5 288 529 KPSC adult members. Prevalence at the healthcare encounter level was 0.01%. The 15 most important predictors included demographics, healthcare utilization, and neighborhood-level socio-economic factors. The sensitivity and specificity of the final model were 0.83 and 0.56, respectively. A very high-risk group (top 1% of predicted risk) yielded a positive predictive value of 0.14% and sensitivity of 13%. This high-risk group potentially reduces screening burden by a factor of 11.7, compared to universal screening. Results for alternative probability cutoffs are presented. DISCUSSION: Our model can support more targeted screening in healthcare settings, resulting in improved efficiency of firearm injury risk assessment and prevention efforts.

Is the Run, Hide, Fight Concept Effective in Improving Hospital Response to Shooting Incidents? A Systematic Review.

The recent rise of active shootings calls for adequate preparation. Currently, the "Run, Hide, Fight" concept is widely accepted and adopted by many hospitals nationwide. Unfortunately, the appropriateness of this concept in hospitals is uncertain due to lack of data. To understand the "Run, Hide, Fight" concept application in hospitals, a review of currently available data is needed. A systematic review was done focusing on the "Run, Hide, Fight" concept using multiple databases from the past 12 years. The PRISMA flow diagram was used to systematically select the articles based on specific inclusion and exclusion criteria. The measurements were subjective evaluations and survival probabilities post-concept. One agent-based modeling study suggested a high survival probability in non-medical settings. However, there is a paucity of data supporting its effectiveness and applicability in hospitals. Literature suggests a better suitable concept, the "Secure, Preserve, Fight" concept, as a response protocol to active shootings in hospitals. The effectiveness of the "Run, Hide, Fight" concept in hospitals is questionable. The "Secure, Preserve, Fight" concept was found to be designed more specifically for hospitals and closes the gaps on the flaws in the "Run, Hide, Fight" concept.

Organic and inorganic gunshot residues on the hands, forearms, face, and nostrils of shooters 30 min after a discharge.

During the investigation of firearm-related incidents, gunshot residues (GSR) can be collected on the scene and individuals (e.g., shooters or bystanders). Their analysis can give valuable information for the reconstruction of the events. Since GSR collection on persons of interest generally occurs a few minutes to hours after discharge, knowledge is needed to understand how organic (O), and inorganic (I) residues are transferred and persist. In this research, the quantities of OGSR and IGSR were assessed on the right and left hands, forearms, face, and nostrils of four shooters. Specimens were collected immediately before the discharge (shooter's blank specimens) and shortly after (30 min) using carbon adhesive stubs. Organic compounds were first extracted from the collection device and analysed using ultra-high-performance liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry (UHPLC-MS/MS). Subsequently, IGSR particles were detected on the same stub using scanning electron microscopy coupled with energy-dispersive X-ray spectrometry (SEM/EDS). Shooter's blank specimen analysis revealed background contamination of both O and IGSR in the shooter's environment, predominantly attributed to the presence of an indoor shooting range. However, the background quantities generally remained below the associated 30-minute specimen. Thirty minutes after a discharge, higher quantities were generally detected on the shooter's right and left hands than on other collection regions for both GSR types. Forearms and face emerged as interesting collection alternatives, especially in cases where a person of interest may have washed their hands in the interval between the discharge and collection. In contrast, very low amounts of GSR were detected in the nostrils. Furthermore, the results indicated that OGSR and IGSR have different transfer and persistence mechanisms.

Public Mass Shootings: Counterfactual Trend Analysis of the Federal Assault Weapons Ban.

Background: Assault weapon and large-capacity magazine bans are potential tools for policy makers to prevent public mass shootings. However, the efficacy of these bans is a continual source of debate. In an earlier study, we estimated the impact of the Federal Assault Weapons Ban (FAWB) on the number of public mass shooting events in the United States. This study provides an updated assessment with 3 additional years of firearm surveillance data to characterize the longer-term effects. Objective: This study aims to estimate the impact of the FAWB on trends in public mass shootings from 1966 to 2022. Methods: We used linear regression to estimate the impact of the FAWB on the 4-year simple moving average of annual public mass shootings, defined by events with 4 or more deaths in 24 hours, not including the perpetrator. The study period spans 1966 to 2022. The model includes indicator variables for both the FAWB period (1995-2004) and the period after its removal (2005-2022). These indicators were interacted with a linear time trend. Estimates were controlled for the national homicide rate. After estimation, the model provided counterfactual estimates of public mass shootings if the FAWB was never imposed and if the FAWB remained in place. Results: The overall upward trajectory in the number of public mass shootings substantially fell while the FAWB was in place. These trends are specific to events in which the perpetrator used an assault weapon or large-capacity magazine. Point estimates suggest the FAWB prevented up to 5 public mass shootings while the ban was active. A continuation of the FAWB and large-capacity magazine ban would have prevented up to 38 public mass shootings, but the CIs become wider as time moves further away from the period of the FAWB. Conclusions: The FAWB, which included a ban on large-capacity magazines, was associated with fewer public mass shooting events, fatalities, and nonfatal gun injuries. Gun control legislation is an important public health tool in the prevention of public mass shootings.

Comparison of In-Hospital Mortality and Neurosurgical Intervention Between Intracranial Gunshot Wounds Arising From Long Guns and Handguns: A Propensity Score Matched Study.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Patients with intracranial gunshot wounds (IC-GSWs) often present with severe neurological injuries requiring prompt neurological evaluation. Neurosurgical intervention is reserved for those with reasonable chances of survival. Handguns and long guns, such as shotguns and rifles, have differing mechanisms of injury which may influence surgical candidacy and outcomes. This study aims to compare rates and types of neurosurgical intervention and inpatient outcomes in patients with IC-GSWs handguns and long guns. METHODS: The National Trauma Data Bank was retrospectively queried for patients with IC-GSWs from 2017 to 2019. Patients with long gun IC-GSWs were propensity score matched with those with handgun IC-GSWs based on patient demographics, comorbidities, insurance status, injury extent and severity, and hospital trauma level. Group differences were compared using Student's t-tests and Pearson's χ2 tests, and multivariable logistic regression was used to identify predictors of in-hospital mortality. RESULTS: Overall, patients in the long gun group were more likely to undergo neurosurgical intervention (21% vs 17%, P = .02). Following propensity score matching, the long gun group had lower rates of in-hospital mortality (35% vs 43%, P < .01), lower rates of cardiac arrest (5% vs 8%, P = .02), and lower rates of reoperation (0% vs 2%, P = .02) than the handgun group. In multivariable regression, independent predictors of survival included long gun IC-GSWs (odds ratio [OR] 0.65, CI 0.52-0.83), neurosurgical foreign body removal (OR 0.44, CI 0.33-0.58), intracranial debridement (OR 0.47, 0.33-0.67), and craniectomy (OR 0.46, CI 0.34-0.63). CONCLUSION: Patients with IC-GSWs present to the hospital with severe neurological injury. Neurosurgical intervention was independently associated with decreased mortality. After matching, patients with long gun IC-GSWs experienced lower in-hospital mortality rates compared with those from handguns. This study suggests that patients suffering from long gun IC-GSW may respond particularly well to neurosurgical intervention and firearm type should be considered when determining neurosurgical candidacy.

Fallacy of attributing the U.S. firearm mortality epidemic to mental health.

BACKGROUND: Annual global data on mental disorders prevalence and firearm death rates for 2000-2019, enables the U.S. to be compared with comparable counties for these metrics. METHODS: The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) Global Health Burden data were used to compare the prevalence of mental disorders with overall, homicide and suicide firearm death rates including homicides and suicides, in high sociodemographic (SDI) countries. RESULTS: Overall and in none of the nine major categories of mental disorders did the U.S. have a statistically-significant higher rate than any of 40 other high SDI countries during 2019, the last year of available data. During the same year, the U.S. had a statistically-significant higher rate of all deaths, homicides, and suicides by firearm (all p<<0.001) than all other 40 high SDI countries. Suicides accounted for most of the firearm death rate differences between the U.S. and other high SDI countries, and yet the prevalence of mental health disorders associated with suicide were not significantly difference between the U.S. and other high SDI countries. CONCLUSION: Mental disorder prevalence in the U.S. is similar in all major categories to its 40 comparable sociodemographic countries, including mental health disorders primarily associated with suicide. It cannot therefore explain the country's strikingly higher firearm death rate, including suicide. Reducing firearm prevalence, which is correlated with the country's firearm death rate, is a logical solution that has been applied by other countries.

Deer Hunting Season and Firearm Violence in US Rural Counties.

Importance: Firearm violence is a major public health problem in the US. However, relatively little research has focused particular attention on firearm violence in rural areas, and few studies have used research designs that draw on exogenous variation in the prevalence of firearms to estimate the association between firearm presence and shootings. Objective: To investigate the association between the start of deer hunting season and shootings in rural counties in the US. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this cohort study, data from all rural US counties in states with available data on the timing of deer hunting season were matched with data on shootings from the Gun Violence Archive from January 1, 2014, to December 31, 2021. Exposure: Shootings in the first 3 weeks of deer hunting season were compared with the week prior to the start of deer hunting season. Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcome was daily total shootings. The association between the start of deer hunting season and shootings was estimated using Poisson regression models to analyze change within counties while controlling for relevant calendar year, month of year, and seasonal effects. Results: The sample included 854 rural counties with a mean (SD) population of 16 416 (18 329) per county and 5.4 (13.3) annual shootings per 100 000 people. The county fixed-effects specification analyzing the association between deer hunting season and shootings showed that relative to the week prior to deer hunting season, the incidence rate ratio for total shootings was 1.49 (95% CI, 1.13-1.95) for the first week of deer hunting season and 1.41 (95% CI, 1.02-1.94) for the second week of deer hunting season. Estimates remained consistent when excluding hunting accidents and were most pronounced in states with more hunting licenses per capita. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study of the association between the start of deer hunting season and firearm violence, results showed that the start of deer hunting season was associated with a substantial increase in shootings. The findings highlight the role of firearm prevalence in gun violence and suggest the need for focused policies designed to reduce firearm violence in areas with substantial hunting activity during the first weeks of deer hunting season.

Adverse Childhood Experiences and Adult Household Firearm Ownership.

This survey study examines exposure to abuse, neglect, and household dysfunction during childhood and likelihood of gun ownership in adulthood.

Household Firearm Ownership and Firearm Mortality.

Importance: Causal associations between household firearm ownership rates (HFRs) and firearm mortality rates are not well understood. Objective: To assess the population-level temporal sequencing of firearm death rates and HFRs. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study used autoregressive cross-lagged models to analyze HFRs, firearm suicide rates, and firearm homicide rates in the US from 1990 to 2018. The suicide analyses included 16 demographic subgroups of adults, defined by study year, state, sex, race and ethnicity, marital status, and urbanicity. The homicide analyses consisted of adult subgroups living in urban or rural areas. Data analysis was conducted from March to December 2023. Exposures: Firearm mortality rates and HFRs. Main Outcomes and Measures: Firearm homicide and suicide rates with HFRs as the exposure, and HFR with mortality as the exposure. Results: A total of 10 416 observations of 16 demographic subgroups by state and 2-year periods were included in the suicide analyses, while 1302 observations from 2 demographic subgroups by state and 2-year period were included in the homicide analysis. At baseline, the mean (SD) rate per 100 000 population across strata was 7.46 (7.21) for firearm suicides and 3.32 (2.13) for firearm homicides. The mean (SD) baseline HFR was 36.9% (20.2%) for firearm suicides and 36.9% (14.8%) for firearm homicides. Higher HFR preceded increases in suicide rates: demographic strata with equal firearm suicide rates but which differ by 18.6 percentage points on HFR (1 SD) would be expected to have firearm suicide rates that diverged by 0.19 (95% CI, 0.15-0.23) deaths per 100 000 population per period. With these differences accumulated over 8 years, firearm suicide rates in subgroups with the highest decile HFR would be expected to have 1.93 (95% CI, 1.64-2.36) more suicides per 100 000 population than strata with lowest decile HFR, a difference of 25.7% of the overall firearm suicide rate in 2018 and 2019. Firearm suicide rates had a smaller magnitude of association with subsequent changes in HFR: strata with equal HFRs but which differ by 1 SD in firearm suicide rates had minimal subsequent change in HFRs (-0.02 [95% CI, -0.04 to 0.01] percentage points). A 1-SD difference in HFRs was associated with little difference in next-period overall firearm homicides rates (0.03 [95% CI, -0.02 to 0.08] per 100 000 population), but a 1-SD difference in homicide rates was associated with a decrease in HFR (-0.09 [95% CI, -0.16 to -0.04] percentage points). Conclusions and Relevance: This cohort study found an association between high HFRs and subsequent increases in rates of firearm suicide. In contrast, higher firearm homicide rates preceded decreases in HFRs. By demonstrating the temporal sequencing of firearm ownership and mortality, this study may help to rule out some theories of why gun ownership and firearm mortality are associated at the population level.

Analyzing the impact of concealed carry weapons and school resource officers on school shootings: An agent-based modeling approach.

This paper presents a simulation modeling study that examines the potential benefit of arming public school staff members with concealed carry weapons (CCWs) in combination with school resource officers (SROs) during active shooter events. By simulating real or hypothetical situations and altering various parameters, simulation modeling allows researchers to explore the potential factors that may influence the outcome of such situations. This study will analyze literature on active shootings to identify key characteristics that may impact the outcome of an event and will use an actual school active shooter event as a basis for developing a simulation model. The researchers will then introduce a CCW carrier and an SRO into the scenario to assess the potential impact and outcomes of such a change. The results of this study may inform the development of effective policies and procedures for addressing active shooter events in public settings.

Temporal trends in female firearm homicides across states in the Northeast of Brazil during the period 2000-2019. / Tendência temporal da mortalidade por homicídios femininos por arma de fogo nos estados da região Nordeste do Brasil no período 2000-2019.

This article aims to analyze temporal trends in female firearm homicides in the Northeast of Brazil during the period 2000-2019. We conducted an ecological study using data on firearm homicides of women aged 10 years and over obtained from the Mortality Information System. The population data were taken from the 2010 Census. Homicide rates were calculated after correcting the data to account for differences in the quality and coverage of death records. Trends were assessed using negative binomial regression and described using relative risk and p values. Average annual percentage changes in homicide rates were also calculated. The regional firearm homicide rate during the study period was 4.40 per 100,000 women. Rates were highest in the state of Alagoas (5.40), the 15-19 age group (5.84) and in public thoroughfares (1.58). Trends were upward across all states except Pernambuco, where they were downward, and Alagoas, where rates were stationary. The place of occurrence with the highest percentage increase in firearm homicides over the study period was public thoroughfares. Female firearm homicides showed an upward trend across most northeastern states.

O objetivo deste artigo é analisar a tendência temporal dos homicídios femininos perpetrados por arma de fogo nos estados nordestinos, no período de 2000 a 2019. Estudo ecológico, com dados de homicídios por arma de fogo em mulheres com 10 ou mais anos, registrados no Sistema de Informação Sobre Mortalidade. Os dados de mortalidade e os dados populacionais foram obtidos junto ao Departamento de Informática do Sistema Único de Saúde. Após a correção dos registros de óbito para qualidade e cobertura dos óbitos, as taxas de mortalidade foram calculadas Tendências foram avaliadas por regressão binomial negativa, classificadas de acordo com o valor do risco relativo e valor de p. Calculou-se a variação percentual anual média das taxas de mortalidade. A região apresentou 4,40 homicídios por arma de fogo por 100 mil mulheres no período do estudo, maiores coeficientes em Alagoas (5,40), na faixa etária de 15-19 anos (5,84), e via pública (1,58). As tendências foram ascendentes, com exceção de Pernambuco em que foi descendente, e estacionárias em Alagoas. Os homicídios por arma de fogo em via pública apresentaram maior percentual de aumento no período estudado. Observou-se tendência ascendente nos homicídios femininos perpetrados por arma de fogo na maioria dos estados nordestinos.

Legislative Advocacy in Illinois for Firearm Injury Prevention.

The leading cause of death in children in the United States is injury caused by firearm violence. States that enact stricter laws related to firearm injury prevention have lower rates of mortality in children. In Illinois, we formed a coalition with medical professionals, medical organizations, community partners, and legislators to craft legislation to reduce the burden of firearm violence on children. These laws can be politically charged. Therefore, we decided to focus on a safe storage education law. We met regularly as a group to draft the bill and an information sheet to support it. Pediatricians and pediatric providers worked with the government relations teams in children's hospitals throughout the state to garner supporting organizations. We also worked to garner cosponsors, provided written and oral testimony to the legislative body, and wrote op-eds to support the bill. Shortly after the bill was passed and signed into law in June of 2022, there was a mass shooting at Highland Park in Illinois. After the shooting, there was a mandate from the Illinois governor to work on passing an assault weapons ban. Pediatricians again provided input into the bill about how the weapons affect children, testified before the House Judiciary Committee, and wrote op-eds. Governor Pritzker signed the Protect Illinois Communities Act into law in January of 2023. Pediatricians actively worked in the passage of both bills, which highlights the importance of medical professionals as experts who can combine powerful stories and evidence based medicine to influence policy.

Suicide Prevention Effects of Extreme Risk Protection Order Laws in Four States.

More than half of suicide deaths in the United States result from self-inflicted firearm injuries. Extreme risk protection order (ERPO) laws in 21 states and the District of Columbia temporarily limit access to firearms for individuals found in a civil court process to pose an imminent risk of harm to themselves or others. Research with large multistate study populations has been lacking to determine effectiveness of these laws. This study assembled records pertaining to 4,583 ERPO respondents in California, Connecticut, Maryland, and Washington. Matched records identified suicide decedents and self-injury method. Researchers applied case fatality rates for each suicide method to estimate nonfatal suicide attempts corresponding to observed deaths. Comparison of counterfactual to observed data patterns yielded estimates of the number of lives saved and number of ERPOs needed to avert one suicide. Estimates varied depending on the assumed probability that a gun owner who attempts suicide will use a gun. Two evidence-based approaches yielded estimates of 17 and 23 ERPOs needed to prevent one suicide. For the subset of 2,850 ERPO respondents with documented suicide concern, comparable estimates were 13 and 18, respectively. This study's findings add to growing evidence that ERPOs can be an effective and important suicide prevention tool.