Career factors related to winning Olympic medals in swimming.

To investigate associations between a swimmer's career progression and winning a medal at the Olympic Games (OG) or World Championships (WC). A total of 4631 swimming performances of 1535 top swimmers (653 women, 882 men) from 105 nationalities since1973 were extracted from FINA rankings. A panel of 12 predictor variables including nationality, gender, competition, age, number and timing of competitions, pattern of progressions and regressions in performance, and medal outcomes was established. Linear logistic regression was used to study the association between winning a medal and predictor variables. Logistic regression coefficients were obtained by training on 80% of the database, and prediction accuracy evaluated on the remaining 20%. Using the training set, a selection of 9 most relevant features for prediction of winning a medal (target variable) was obtained through exhaustive feature selection and cross-validation: nationality, competition, number of competitions, number of annual career progressions (nb_prog), maximum annual career progression (max-progr), number of annual career regressions (nb_reg), age at maximum annual progression, P6 (the level of performance six months before the World Championships or Olympic Games), and P2 (the level of performance two months before the World Championships or Olympic Games). A logistic regression model was built and retrained on the entire training set achieved an area under the ROC curve of ~90% on the test set. The odds of winning a medal increased by 1.64 (95% CI, 1.39-1.91) and 1.44 (1.22-1.72) for each unit of increase in max-progr and n-prog, respectively. Odds of winning a medal decreased by 0.60 (0.49-0.72) for a unit increase in n-reg. In contrast, the odds increased by 1.70 (1.39-2.07) and 4.35 (3.48-5.42) for improvements in the 6 and 2 months before competition (P<0.001, for all variables). The likelihood of a swimmer winning an international medal is improved by ~40-90% with progressions from season-to-season, and reducing the number of regressions in performance. The chances of success are also improved 2- to 4-fold by substantial improvements in performance in the months before competition.

Case example of a female solo sailor competing in the Vendée Globe reveals extraordinary biological demands.

The Vendée Globe is a non-stop, unassisted, single-handed round the world sailing race. It is regarded as the toughest sailing race, requiring high cognitive functioning and constant alertness. Little is known about the amount of sleep restriction and nutritional deficit experienced at sea and effects that fatigue have on sailors' performance. This report aimed to investigate these aspects by monitoring one of the female participants of the latest Vendée Globe. Sleep, food intake and stress were self-reported daily using specific app. Cognitive assessments were digitally completed. Heart rate and activity intensity were measured using a wrist-worn wearable device. Mean self-report sleep duration per 24 h was 3 hours 40 minutes. By the end of the 95 race days, the sailor reached a caloric deficit of 27,900 kcal. On average, the sailor spent 50 minutes per day in moderate-to-vigorous activity. Cognitive assessments did not show any effect of fatigue or stress on completion time or performance. Recent technological and communication advancement for offshore sailors, enabled continuous data to be monitored in near real time, even from the Southern Ocean. Moving forward this will enable greater understanding of when sailors will be at risk of poor decision making, illness or injury.

Race Dynamics in Triathlon Mixed-Team-Relay Meaningfully Changes with The New Regulation Towards Paris 2024.

Mixed-Team-Relay (MTR) triathlon is a novel Olympic discipline whose performance determinants and tactical behaviors have barely been studied. Additionally, a regulatory change has been made to the male and female relay order for the Paris 2024 Olympics. Therefore, this study aimed to determine the performance determinants and race dynamics as a function of competitive level on the new regulated MTR triathlon. Results from 129 national teams, (516 elite triathletes) across five MTR World Triathlon Series and two MTR European Championships in 2022 and 2023, were analyzed. Split times, average speeds, time behind the race leader (gap), partial and finishing positions, pack position as well as the rank positions of every segment, relay leg, and overall race were computed. Decision tree analyses were conducted as a predictive method for the overall results, and correspondence analyses were conducted to examine the relationship between the different relay legs and segments and the finishing positions. The performance of the fourth leg was the most relevant for overall result (30%), as well as the fourth running leg (16%) and the female legs performance (7%). Medallist relay teams were characterized by displaying a differential speed lower than 0.5 and 0.83 km/h, respectively, from the best-ranking athletes in the Legs 1 and 4. Furthermore, staying in the front pack after the second swimming leg showed a great relationship with achieving a medal position. New MTR triathlon rules shift race dynamics, emphasizing individual efforts in cycling and swimming, while maintaining the crucial importance of running.

Estimation of spreading speeds and travelling waves for the lattice pioneer-climax competition system.

This paper concerns the invasion dynamics of the lattice pioneer-climax competition model with parameter regions in which the system is non-monotone. We estimate the spreading speeds and establish appropriate conditions under which the spreading speeds are linearly selected. Moreover, the existence of travelling waves is determined by constructing suitable upper and lower solutions. It shows that the spreading speed coincides with the minimum wave speed of travelling waves if the diffusion rate of the invasive species is larger or equal to that of the native species. Our results are new to estimate the spreading speed of non-monotone lattice pioneer-climax systems, and the techniques developed in this work can be used to study the invasion dynamics of the pioneer-climax system with interaction delays, which could extend the results in the literature. The analysis replies on the construction of auxiliary systems, upper and lower solutions, and the monotone dynamical system approach.

Effects of Different Conditioning Activities on the Sprint Performance of Elite Sprinters: A Systematic Review With Meta-Analysis.

PURPOSE: Postactivation performance enhancement (PAPE), which refers to the phenomena associated with the attainment of enhanced performance in sport-specific tasks after a conditioning activity, is an important objective of warming-up practices in many sports. This is even more relevant for sprinters, as potential increases in sprinting speed will directly influence their competitive results. This systematic review with meta-analysis evaluated the effects of different PAPE protocols (ie, using plyometrics, strength-power exercises, and resisted/assisted sprints) on the sprinting performance (ie, sprint time or sprint speed) of competitive sprinters. METHODS: Initially, 1205 records published until last December 18 were identified, using the following databases: PubMed/MEDLINE, Scopus, and Clarivate Web of Science. After removing duplicates and screening titles and abstracts, 14 high-quality studies met the inclusion criteria for the meta-analysis. RESULTS: Overall, there were no significant changes in sprint performance after implementing various types of conditioning activities (standardized mean difference [SMD] = 0.16 [95% CI, -0.02 to 0.33]; Z = 1.78; P = .08; I2 = 0%). In addition, when comparing prechanges and postchanges between experimental, control, and other conditions, no significant differences were found in sprint speed or time across all studies (SMD = 0.09 [95% CI, -0.10 to 0.28]; Z = 0.92; P = .36; I = 0%). CONCLUSIONS: Results revealed that different types of conditioning activities may not be capable of acutely enhancing the sprint speed of competitive sprinters. This aligns with previous observations indicating that sprinting is a highly stable physical capacity, a phenomenon that is even more consistent among elite sprinters. Coaches and sport scientists should collaborate to develop more efficient PAPE protocols for these highly specialized athletes, with special attention to study design and individualization, while considering their effects on acceleration versus top speed.

When population growth intensifies intergroup competition, female colobus monkeys free-ride less.

Intergroup aggression often results in the production of public goods, such as a safe and stable social environment and a home range containing the resources required to survive and reproduce. We investigate temporal variation in intergroup aggression in a growing population of colobus monkeys (Colobus vellerosus) to ask a novel question: "Who stepped-up to produce these public goods when doing so became more difficult?". Both whole-group encounters and male incursions occurred more frequently as the population grew. Males and females were both more likely to participate in whole-group encounters when monopolizable food resources were available, indicating both sexes engaged in food defence. However, only females increasingly did so as the population grew, suggesting that it was females who increasingly produced the public good of home range defence as intergroup competition intensified. Females were also more active in male incursions at high population densities, suggesting they increasingly produced the public good of a safe and stable social environment. This is not to say that males were chronic free-riders when it came to maintaining public goods. Males consistently participated in the majority of intergroup interactions throughout the study period, indicating they may have lacked the capacity to invest more time and effort.

The effect of forced even pacing and an opponent on end-spurt behaviour in freestyle pool swimming.

To investigate the effect of forced even pacing through virtual pacing assistance and an opponent in a competitive setting on end-spurt behaviour in freestyle swimmers, including related physiological underpinnings. Twenty-seven competitive swimmers and triathletes were recruited. There were four 1500 m freestyle trials: (i) familiarisation time trial, (ii) self-paced time trial (STT), (iii) head-to-head competition time trial (CTT) and (iv) forced even pacing through virtual pacing assistance time trial (FET). Eventually, 12 swimmers met the criteria for the CTT and FET to be included in the analysis. Changes in end-spurt behaviour, finishing time and physiological parameters (lactate, cortisol, noradrenaline and heart rate) were analysed using a linear mixed model with fixed effects for trials and a random effect for swimmer identity. A separate linear model was computed for competition outcome. The end-spurt for each race was determined by means of an end-spurt indicator (ESI; ESI > 0 greater end-spurt). Swimmers demonstrated a significantly greater ESI in FET (+2.6; p < 0.001) and CTT (+1.4; p = 0.022) compared to STT. Blood lactate concentration in FET (+1.0 mmol L-1; p < 0.001) and CTT (+1.6 mmol L-1; p < 0.001) was significantly higher than in STT. Winners had a significantly greater ESI than losers in CTT (+1.6 and p = 0.005). Swimmers utilised a greater end-spurt through metabolically optimal forced even pacing by virtual pacing assistance and in a head-to-head competition due a larger mobilisation of anaerobic reserves as indicated by greater blood lactate concentrations. Winners had a significantly greater end-spurt than losers despite similar metabolic disturbances.

Subjective and Objective Monitoring Markers: Are They Related to Game Performance Indicators in Elite Female Volleyball Players?

PURPOSE: This cohort study aimed to investigate the relationship between subjective (wellness and internal training load [ITL]) and objective (neuromuscular fatigue) monitoring markers and performance aspects (reception quality [RQ] and attack efficiency [AE]) in professional female volleyball players. METHODS: The study was conducted over an 8-week period during the final mesocycle of the competitive phase. A total of 24 training sessions and 10 matches were included in the analysis. Subjective measures of wellness and ITL were assessed, and neuromuscular fatigue was evaluated using countermovement-jump (CMJ) height. RQ and AE were determined based on game statistics. RESULTS: The study found a positive relationship between wellness and RQ, particularly affecting outside hitters and liberos. ITL showed a positive association with AE, primarily impacting outside hitters, opposite hitters, and middle blockers. Additionally, ITL demonstrated a negative correlation with RQ, mainly affecting outside hitters and liberos. CMJ performance was associated with AE, where a decrease in CMJ height was linked to reduced AE. CONCLUSIONS: The findings highlight the importance of considering players' wellness scores in training and match strategies for different positions. Careful management of training loads, considering both physical and technical demands, is crucial for optimizing performance outcomes. Monitoring neuromuscular fatigue, as indicated by CMJ performance, is particularly relevant for outside hitters, opposite hitters, and middle blockers involved in attack actions. Coaches, trainers, and sports practitioners can use these insights to develop position-specific training protocols and implement effective strategies for maintaining or improving performance metrics under various stressors.

Overuse injury and affects in competitive sport: A prospective longitudinal study.

Overuse injuries, which have a high prevalence in sport, are suggested to result in different affective responses in comparison to traumatic injuries. Affects may also reciprocally act as risk factors for overuse injury. The aim of this study was to examine the associations between overuse injury and affects within a longitudinal follow-up design. Competitive athletes (N = 149) of various sports and levels of competition completed the Positive and Negative Affect Schedule (PANAS) and the Oslo Sports Trauma Research Centre Overuse injury questionnaire (OSTRC-O) once a week over 10 consecutive weeks. Bivariate unconditional latent curve model analyses with structured residuals were performed to evaluate the associations within and across weeks between OSTRC-O severity score and affects. Results indicated that OSTRC-O severity score and positive affects (PA) had a statistically significant negative within-week relation (r = -24.51, 95% CI = [-33.9, -15.1], p < 0.001). Higher scores of overuse injury were significantly related to lower levels of PA across weeks (ß = -0.02, 95% CI = [-0.04, -0.001], p = 0.044), while the reciprocal effect of PA on overuse injury was not significant (ß = -0.13, 95% CI = [-0.52, 0.26], p = 0.51). No statistically significant association was observed between OSTRC-O severity score and negative affects, neither within nor across weeks. Our findings suggest that overuse injury may have adverse psychological consequences on the long run through lessened PA and address the need for providing sustainable psychological support focusing upon such PA when working with athletes experiencing overuse injury.

Female-biased birth sex ratio in a female dispersal primate suggests local resource competition.

Group living may entail local resource competition (LRC) which can be reduced if the birth sex ratio (BSR) is biased towards members of the dispersing sex who leave the group and no longer compete locally with kin. In primates, the predicted relationship between dispersal and BSR is generally supported although data for female dispersal species are rare and primarily available from captivity. Here, we present BSR data for Phayre's leaf monkeys (Trachypithecus phayrei crepusculus) at the Phu Khieo Wildlife Sanctuary, Thailand (N = 104). In this population, nearly all natal females dispersed, while natal males stayed or formed new groups nearby. The slower reproductive rate in larger groups suggests that food can be a limiting resource. In accordance with LRC, significantly more females than males were born (BSR 0.404 males/all births) thus reducing future competition with kin. This bias was similar in 2-year-olds (no sex-differential mortality). It became stronger in adults, supporting our impression of particularly fierce competition among males. To better evaluate the importance of BSR, more studies should report sex ratios throughout the life span, and more data for female dispersal primates need to be collected, ideally for multiple groups of different sizes and for several years.

Energy intake, hydration status, and sleep of world-class male archers during competition.

BACKGROUND: Nutritional intake and sleep, play an important role for recovery and performance in elite sport but little work has been undertaken in archery. The present study aimed to assess energy intake (EI), hydration status, and sleep parameters in world-class male archers over the course of a four-day competition. METHODS: Results, Conclusions Six male, elite-standard archers participated in the study and measurements of hydration status, EI, competition load, and sleep were recorded throughout each day of competition. RESULTS: Daily energy, carbohydrate, and protein intake ranged between 2,563 and 3,986 kcal, 4 and 7.1 g/kg BM, 2.2 and 3.6 g/kg BM per day, respectively. Thus, archers practiced elements of periodized nutrition such that energy and carbohydrate intake was greater on the high-volume competition days (i.e. days 1 and 3; more numbers of arrows, longer duration, and walking distance) in comparison to low-volume days (days 2 and 4) over the tournament (all p > 0.01). Additionally, urine specific gravity was higher after waking, compared to pre- and post-competition, and before bed (all p < 0.05). This indicates that archers were euhydrated pre- and post-competition and before bedtime, while they were slightly hypohydrated after waking up. Sleep data show that disturbances were kept to a minimum. CONCLUSIONS: Collectively, archers appear capable of periodizing their nutritional intake according to daily physical loading during a tournament whilst, staying euhydrated and maintaining sleep quality. In part, such data can help to explain why these archers experience a sustained level of success.

Diving into a pool of data: Using principal component analysis to optimize performance prediction in women's short-course swimming.

This study aimed to optimise performance prediction in short-course swimming through Principal Component Analyses (PCA) and multiple regression. All women's freestyle races at the European Short-Course Swimming Championships were analysed. Established performance metrics were obtained including start, free-swimming, and turn performance metrics. PCA were conducted to reduce redundant variables, and a multiple linear regression was performed where the criterion was swimming time. A practical tool, the Potential Predictor, was developed from regression equations to facilitate performance prediction. Bland and Altman analyses with 95% limits of agreement (95% LOA) were used to assess agreement between predicted and actual swimming performance. There was a very strong agreement between predicted and actual swimming performance. The mean bias for all race distances was less than 0.1s with wider LOAs for the 800 m (95% LOA -7.6 to + 7.7s) but tighter LOAs for the other races (95% LOAs -0.6 to + 0.6s). Free-Swimming Speed (FSS) and turn performance were identified as Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) in the longer distance races (200 m, 400 m, 800 m). Start performance emerged as a KPI in sprint races (50 m and 100 m). The successful implementation of PCA and multiple regression provides coaches with a valuable tool to uncover individual potential and empowers data-driven decision-making in athlete training.

Habitual Nocturnal Sleep, Napping Behavior, and Recovery Following Training and Competition in Elite Water Polo: Sex-Related Effects.

PURPOSE: To examine nocturnal sleep patterns, napping behaviors, and subjective wellness responses of elite water polo players within an in-season week and to identify whether sleeping patterns differ between men and women. METHODS: Sleep characteristics of 10 male and 17 female professional water polo players were objectively assessed during 1 week of the in-season period, including 5 training days, 1 match day, and 1 day of rest. Internal load (rating of perceived exertion × duration of training or match) was assessed 30 minutes posttraining or postmatch, and the total quality of recovery was recorded every morning. A series of multilevel models were used to analyze the data. RESULTS: Time in bed and wake-up time were earlier on both training (P < .001) and rest days (P < .001) than on the day of the match. Internal workload did not predict any of the players' sleeping patterns. Midday naps predicted less time in bed (P = .03) and likely less sleep time (P = .08). The total quality of recovery was predicted only by the total sleep time (P < .01). Women exhibited higher sleep efficiency (P < .001), less waking after sleep onset (P = .01), and a lower number of awakenings (P = .02) than men. CONCLUSIONS: The current results indicate that the nocturnal sleep patterns of elite water polo players are not associated with internal load and that women display better nocturnal sleep quality compared with men. As long naps interfere with nocturnal sleep, and total nocturnal sleep time predicts total quality of recovery, we suggest that athletes follow hygiene sleep strategies to facilitate adequate nocturnal sleep and next-day recovery.

"You Are Not Wrong About Getting Strong:" An Insight Into the Impact of Age Group and Level of Competition on Strength in Spanish Football Players.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to compare the maximum and rapid force production of Spanish football players and explore the differences between age group and level of competition. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was developed to evaluate the peak force (PF), relative PF, and rate of force development over 250 ms (RFD0-250) during the isometric midthigh pull between groups of football players based on age group (senior vs junior) and level of competition (national vs regional). Using a portable isometric rig, 111 football players performed 2 isometric midthigh-pull trials on a force plate. Two-way analysis of variance with Bonferroni post hoc correction was applied, and statistical significance was set at P ≤ .05. The PF, relative PF, and RFD0-250 0, 25, 50, 75, and 100 percentiles were also calculated and descriptively reported, separated by age group and level of competition. RESULTS: The analysis of variance revealed a significant main effect of the level of competition for the PF (P < .001), relative PF (P = .003), and RFD0-250 (P < .001). There was a significant main effect of age group for the PF (P < .001). There was a significant interaction effect of the age group × level of competition for relative PF (P = .014). National players were stronger than regional players on the PF and RFD0-250 (P < .001). Senior players were stronger than junior players for the PF (P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: Maximum and rapid force production are crucial for Spanish football players as they progress in both level of competition and age group. Practitioners should encourage young football players to prioritize strength development to improve their athletic performance.

Running Event, Age, and Competitive Level as Predictors of Dual-Energy X-Ray Absorptiometry-Derived Body Composition and Bone Health Markers in Female Runners.

ABSTRACT: Wilson, LJ and Curtis, C. Running event, age, and competitive level as predictors of dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry-derived body composition and bone health markers in female runners. J Strength Cond Res 38(7): e366-e372, 2024-The aim of this study was to assess the impact of running discipline, competitive level (COMP), and age on body composition measures in female athletes. A total of n = 51 female runners (age: 30.9 ± 5.7 years, stature: 166.7 ± 5.7 cm, and body mass (BM): 57.1 ± 8.2 kg) completed a full-body dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) scan in a cross-sectional design. One-way ANOVA or Kruskal-Wallis was used to identify differences in DXA measures and independent variables. Stepwise regression determined the contribution of independent variables on DXA measures. Body fat percentage (BF%) and fat mass (FM) differed based on COMP (BF%: H (2) = 17.451; FM: H (2) = 17.406, both p ≤ 0.0001). Competitive level modestly predicted BF% and FM (BF%: R2adj = 0.316, F (1,50) = 22.660; FM: R2adj = 0.300, F (1,50) = 21.029, both p ≤ 0.0001). Bone mineral density (BMD) and BMD Z-score (BMD Z ) did not differ between age, running discipline, or COMP (age: BMD: F (2,50) = 2.825, BMD Z : F (2,50) = 2.215; running discipline: BMD: F (3,50) = 1.145, BMD Z : F (3,50) = 1.474; COMP: BMD: F (2,50) = 0.074, BMD Z : F (2,50) = 1.297, all p ≤ 0.05). Age and running discipline modestly predicted BMD and BMD Z (BMD: R2adj = 0.179, F (1,50) = 5.264; BMD Z : R2adj = 0.173, F (1,50) = 4.545, both p ≤ 0.05). These findings indicate COMP may be a predictor of BF% and FM. Age and running discipline appear predictors of bone health markers. Such findings may enable medical and sport science practitioners to tailor interventions relating to realization of training adaptations, performance, and health.

Testing general sociocultural and coach-related appearance pressures as the factors associated with disordered eating in competitive female athletes participating in various sports.

The aim of the present study was to test the sociocultural Petrie and Greenleaf's (2007) model of disordered eating (DE) in competitive female athletes. Specifically, we tested a model of general sociocultural and coach-related pressures towards body weight and appearance of female athletes as the factors associated with athletes' DE through the mediators such as internalization of appearance ideals and overweight preoccupation. 515 athletes participated in this study. The mean age of the sample was 19.0 ± 5.9 years. Athletes were provided with study measures on general sociocultural and coach-related appearance and body weight pressures, internalization of appearance ideals, overweight preoccupation and DE. Path analyses showed that general sociocultural pressures were associated with DE directly and through internalization of appearance ideals and overweight preoccupation. Pressures from coaches were associated with DE through overweight preoccupation and through the internalization of appearance ideals and overweight preoccupation. The models were invariant across body weight sensitivity in sports and age groups. These results inform DE prevention for female athletes. It is important to increase resistance to sociocultural pressures and pressures from coaches in DE prevention programmes for female competitive athletes of all ages and participating in sports irrespective of sports group (weight-sensitive or less weight-sensitive).

Association between match-related physical activity profiles and playing positions in different tasks: A data driven approach.

Assessing the intensity characteristics of specific soccer drills (matches, small-side game, and match-based exercises) could help practitioners to plan training sessions by providing the optimal stimulus for every player. In this paper, we propose a data analytics framework to assess the neuromuscular or metabolic characteristics of a soccer-specific exercise in relation with the expected match intensity. GPS data describing the physical tasks' external intensity during an entire season of twenty-eight semi-professional soccer players competing at the fourth Italian division were used in this study. A supervised machine-learning approach was tested in order to detect difference in playing positions in different sport-specific drills. Moreover, a non-supervised machine-learning model was used to profile the match neuromuscular and metabolic characteristics. Players' playing positions during matches and match-based exercises are characterised by specific metabolic and neuromuscular characteristics related to tactical demands, while in the small-side game these differences are not detected. Additionally, our framework permits to evaluate if the match performance request is mirrored during training drills. Practitioners could evaluate the type of stimulus performed by a player in a specific training drill in order to assess if they reflect the matches characteristics of their specific playing position.

Performance and micro-pacing in sprint cross-country skiing: A comparison of individual time-trial and head-to-head race formats.

This study compared performance strategies and sub-technique selection in cross-country skate skiing sprint races, specifically individual time-trial (ITT) and head-to-head (H2H) formats. Fourteen male cross-country skiers from the Chinese national team participated in the FIS-sanctioned sprint race day. GNSS and heart rate sensors recorded positioning, skiing speeds, heart rate, sub-technique usage, and skiing kinematics. Statistical parametric mapping (SPM) was used to determine the course positions (clusters) where instantaneous skiing speed was significantly associated with section time. One-way analyses of variance were used to examine differences between the ITT and H2H. H2H race speeds were 2.4 ± 0.2% faster than the ITT race (p < 0.05).Variations in sub-technique and skiing kinematics were observed between race formats, indicating different strategies and tactics employed by athletes. SPM identified specific clusters (primarily uphill) where the fastest athlete gained significant time over the slowest. The greatest time gains were associated with higher G3 sub-technique usage and longer G3 cycle length on steep uphill terrain (9-13% gradients). Integrating SPM analyses and sub-technique assessments can help optimise performance and tactics in sprint races. This study enhances our understanding of cross-country skiing dynamics and performance variations among elite competitors.

On being unpredictable and winning.

In theory, it can be strategically advantageous for competitors to make themselves unpredictable to their opponents, for example, by variably mixing hostility and friendliness. Empirically, it remains open whether and how competitors make themselves unpredictable, why they do so, and how this conditions conflict dynamics and outcomes. We examine these questions in interactive attacker-defender contests, in which attackers invest to capture resources held and defended by their opponent. Study 1, a reanalysis of nine (un)published experiments (total N = 650), reveals significant cross-trial variability especially in proactive attacks and less in reactive defense. Study 2 (N = 200) shows that greater variability makes both attacker's and defender's next move more difficult to predict, especially when variability is due to occasional rather than (in)frequent extreme investments in conflict. Studies 3 (N = 27) and 4 (N = 106) show that precontest testosterone, a hormone associated with risk-taking and status competition, drives variability during attack which, in turn, increases sympathetic arousal in defenders and defender variability (Study 4). Rather than being motivated by wealth maximization, being unpredictable in conflict and competition emerges in function of the attacker's desire to win "no matter what" and comes with significant welfare cost to both victor and victim. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).