Outcomes of Watchful Waiting Strategy and Predictors of Postoperative Prognosis in Asymptomatic or Equivocally Symptomatic Chronic Severe Aortic Regurgitation With Preserved Left Ventricular Function.

BACKGROUND: The optimal surgical timing for asymptomatic or equivocally symptomatic chronic severe aortic regurgitation with preserved left ventricular ejection fraction remains controversial. METHODS AND RESULTS: Two hundred ten consecutive patients (median age 65 years) with asymptomatic or equivocally symptomatic chronic severe aortic regurgitation and left ventricular ejection fraction ≥50% were registered. First, the treatment plans (aortic valve replacement or watchful waiting) after initial diagnosis were investigated. Then, 2 studies were set: Study A (n=144) investigated the prognosis of patients who were managed under the watchful waiting strategy after initial diagnosis; Study B (n=99) investigated the postoperative prognosis in patients who underwent aortic valve replacement at initial diagnosis or after watchful waiting. The primary outcomes were all-cause death in Study A and postoperative cardiovascular events in Study B. In Study A, 3 died of noncardiovascular causes during a median follow-up of 3.2 years. In Kaplan-Meier analysis, the survival curve was similar to that of an age-sex-matched general population in Japan. In Study B, 9 experienced the primary outcome during a median follow-up of 5.0 years. In Cox regression analysis, preoperative left ventricular end-systolic diameter enlargement (hazard ratio, 1.11; P=0.048) and left ventricular end-systolic diameter >45 mm (hazard ratio, 12.75; P=0.02) were significantly associated with poor postoperative prognosis. In Kaplan-Meier analysis, left ventricular end-systolic diameter >45 mm predicted a higher risk of the primary outcome (P <0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Watchful waiting was achieved safely in asymptomatic or equivocally symptomatic chronic severe aortic regurgitation with preserved left ventricular ejection fraction. Preoperative left ventricular end-systolic diameter >45 mm predicted a poor postoperative outcome and may be an optimal cut-off value for surgical indication.

Active surveillance versus immediate surgery in the management of low-risk papillary thyroid microcarcinoma: comparison of long-term costs in Brazil.

Objective: To compare the long-term medical costs of active surveillance (AS), partial thyroidectomy (PT), and total thyroidectomy (TT) in patients with low-risk papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) receiving care covered by the Brazilian Public Health System. Materials and methods: After reviewing AS cohorts and our own data, we created a model of AS, PT, and TT flow care for low-risk PTMC over 10, 20, and 30 years. The medical costs included those associated with diagnosis, surgery, and follow-up. We considered that 13.3% of the patients on AS would require surgery after a mean of 21.3 months, 4% undergoing TT would develop permanent hypoparathyroidism, and 43% undergoing PT would develop hypothyroidism. Results: The most economical alternative was AS. The costs of TT per patient were higher than those of AS by 182.8% over 10 years (866.89 versus 306.49 US dollars [USD], respectively), by 152.9% over 20 years (1,023.66 versus 404.73 USD, respectively), and by 134.7% over 30 years (1,180.42 versus 502.96 USD, respectively). The costs of PT per patient were higher than those of AS by 16.0% over 10 years (355.66 versus 306.49 USD, respectively), by 16.9% over 20 years (473.41 versus 404.73 USD, respectively), and by 17.5% over 30 years (591.17 versus 502.96 USD, respectively). Conclusion: The AS approach was less costly than immediate surgery throughout 30 years of follow-up. Hence, the implementation of AS in Brazil should not be hindered by cost considerations.

Implementing active surveillance for low-risk thyroid carcinoma into clinical practice: collaborative recommendations for Latin America.

The incidence of thyroid cancer is increasing globally, but mortality rates have remained steady. Many patients with thyroid cancer have low-risk, nonmetastatic intrathyroidal tumors smaller than 2 cm. Active surveillance has shown benefits in these patients, but the adoption of this approach remains below standard in Latin America. The purpose of this article is to identify ways to improve the incorporation of active surveillance into clinical practice for patients with low-risk thyroid carcinoma in Latin America, taking into consideration cultural and geographic factors. Current recommendations include three steps involving patient participation. The first step, which consists of the initial clinical examination, has eight factors requiring special attention. Anxiety must be managed while considering individual, disease-related, cognitive, and environmental aspects. Terms like "overdiagnosis", "incidentaloma," and "overtreatment" must be explained to the patient. Implementing precise terminology contributes to adequate disease perception, substantially reducing stress and anxiety. Clarifying the nonprogressive nature of thyroid cancer helps dispel myths surrounding the disease. The second step includes advice about procedures and guidelines for patients who choose active surveillance. Flexible monitoring techniques should be implemented, with regular check-ins scheduled based on patient needs. Reasons for adjusting treatment must be clearly communicated to the patient, and changes in preference regarding active surveillance should be considered in advance. The third step includes assistance during follow-up. Patients must be educated about ultrasound results and receive surgical indications from specialized physicians. The effectiveness of active surveillance can be reinforced by explaining to the patients the dynamics of changes in nodule size using clear and concise visual aids.

Active surveillance of papillary thyroid carcinoma in Latin America: a scoping review.

Thyroid nodules are a very common finding and have a malignancy rate of 7%-15%. Some malignant nodules have an indolent behavior and may not affect mortality if left untreated. Active surveillance (AS) is a strategy to prevent overtreatment in patients with papillary thyroid microcarcinomas (PTMCs). This review was conducted to evaluate the status of AS for low-risk PTMC in Latin America, including cultural and logistical challenges, disease progression data, and financial viability. We searched PubMed (MEDLINE), SciELO, LILACS, and Web of Science for articles published after 2014 and enrolling adult Latin American patients. Articles cited in the selected studies were also retrieved. We analyzed the AS protocols, technical or logistical challenges, patient adherence, reasons for AS interruption, surgical conversion rates, duration of AS, and disease progression during AS in our region. Three articles were included in the analysis, all of which considered AS a viable option and reported tumor progression and outcomes similar to those reported in other countries. Neck ultrasound and serum levels of thyroglobulin, thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH), thyroxine (T4), and antithyroglobulin antibodies were included in the follow-up. No cases of new distant metastases were reported, and the outcomes were favorable when surgery was required. Anxiety was the main reason for AS interruption. We conclude that AS can be an acceptable approach and is safe and effective in Latin America, although more prospective studies are needed to consolidate this strategy in our region. Adequate infrastructure, follow-up, and patient education, as well as multidisciplinary healthcare teams trained in conducting AS must be ensured for successful results.

MRI-based PI-RADS score predicts ISUP upgrading and adverse pathology at radical prostatectomy in men with biopsy ISUP 1 prostate cancer.

INTRODUCTION: Most men diagnosed with very-low and low-risk prostate cancer are candidates for active surveillance; however, there is still a misclassification risk. We examined whether PI-RADS category 4 or 5 combined with ISUP 1 on prostate biopsy predicts upgrading and/or adverse pathology at radical prostatectomy. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A total of 127 patients had ISUP 1 cancer on biopsy after multiparametric MRI (mpMRI) and then underwent radical prostatectomy. We then evaluated them for ISUP upgrading and/or adverse pathology on radical prostatectomy. RESULTS: Eight-nine patients (70%) were diagnosed with PI-RADS 4 or 5 lesions. ISUP upgrading was significantly higher among patients with PI-RADS 4-5 lesions (84%) compared to patients with equivocal or non-suspicious mpMRI findings (26%, p < 0.001). Both PI-RADS 4-5 lesions (OR 24.3, 95% CI 7.3, 80.5, p < 0.001) and stage T2 on DRE (OR 5.9, 95% CI 1.2, 29.4, p = 0.03) were independent predictors of upgrading on multivariate logistic regression analysis. Men with PI-RADS 4-5 lesions also had significantly more extra-prostatic extension (51% vs. 3%, p < 0.001) and positive surgical margins (16% vs. 3%. p = 0.03). The only independent predictor of adverse pathology was PI-RADS 4-5 (OR 21.7, 95% CI 4.8, 99, p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: PI-RADS 4 or 5 lesions on mpMRI were strong independent predictors of upgrading and adverse pathology. Incorporating mpMRI findings when selecting patients for active surveillance must be further evaluated in future studies.

Active surveillance for low-risk prostate cancer with high tumor burden at biopsy: lessons learned from a contemporary radical prostatectomy cohort.

INTRODUCTION: To investigate whether initial tumor burden at biopsy could predict adverse features after radical prostatectomy (RP) in International Society of Urological Pathology (ISUP) 1 prostate cancer (PCa) patients. METHODS: This retrospective study was conducted in six referral centers. The cohort included patients with ISUP 1 PCa at systematic and MRI-targeted biopsy. We defined a high tumor burden at biopsy if ≥ 20% of cores were positive. The endpoint of the study was adverse features at RP, defined as ≥ pT3a stage and/or N1 and/or ISUP ≥ 3. Sensitivity analyses were performed to assess associations between different thresholds on biopsy (percentage of positive cores [PPC] ≥ 25%, ≥ 33%, ≥ 50%, bilateral positivity and positive cores > 3) and adverse features. As the number of targeted biopsies sampled may influence the number of positive cores, we used a virtual biopsy model in which all targeted biopsy results were interpreted as a single targeted biopsy. RESULTS: A total of 312 contemporary patients were included. At final pathology, 99 patients (32%) had adverse features. In multivariate logistic regression analysis, there was no statistical association between PPC > 20% and adverse features (OR = 1.22; 95%CI:0.69-2.22, p = 0.5). In sensitivity analysis, tumor burden at biopsy was not associated with the risk of adverse features, regardless of the definition used (all p > 0.05). When we considered a unique virtual targeted biopsy, tumor burden remained not associated with adverse features (all p > 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: ISUP 1 PCa tumor burden at biopsy did not predict adverse features in this study, suggesting that it should not be used alone as an exclusion criterion when assessing eligibility for active surveillance.

Baseline MRI predictors of successful organ preservation in the Organ Preservation in Rectal Adenocarcinoma (OPRA) trial.

BACKGROUND: Prospective randomized trials have not yet identified baseline features predictive of organ preservation in locally advanced rectal cancers treated with total neoadjuvant therapy and a selective watch-and-wait strategy. METHODS: This was a secondary analysis of the OPRA trial, which randomized patients with stage II-III rectal adenocarcinoma to receive either induction or consolidation total neoadjuvant therapy. Patients were recommended for total mesorectal excision, or watch and wait based on clinical response at 8 ± 4 weeks after completing treatment. Standardized baseline clinical and radiological variables were collected prospectively. Survival outcomes, including total mesorectal excision-free survival, disease-free survival, and overall survival, were assessed by intention-to-treat analysis. Cox proportional hazards models were used to evaluate associations between baseline variables and survival outcomes. RESULTS: Of the 324 patients randomized for the OPRA trial, 38 (11.7%) had cT4 tumours, 230 (71.0%) cN-positive disease, 101 (32.5%) mesorectal fascia involvement, and 64 (19.8%) extramural venous invasion. Several baseline features were independently associated with recommendation for total mesorectal excision on multivariable analysis: nodal disease (HR 1.66, 95% c.i. 1.12 to 2.48), extramural venous invasion (HR 1.57, 1.07 to 2.29), mesorectal fascia involvement (HR 1.45, 1.01 to 2.09), and tumour length (HR 1.11, 1.00 to 1.22). Of these, nodal disease (HR 2.02, 1.15 to 3.53) and mesorectal fascia involvement (HR 2.02, 1.26 to 3.26) also predicted worse disease-free survival. Age (HR 1.03, 1.00 to 1.06) was associated with overall survival. CONCLUSION: Baseline MRI features, including nodal disease, extramural venous invasion, mesorectal fascia involvement, and tumour length, independently predict the likelihood of organ preservation after completion of total neoadjuvant therapy. Mesorectal fascia involvement and nodal disease are associated with disease-free survival.

MRI Predicts Residual Disease and Outcomes in Watch-and-Wait Patients with Rectal Cancer.

Background MRI plays a crucial role in restaging locally advanced rectal cancer treated with total neoadjuvant therapy (TNT); however, prospective studies have not evaluated its ability to accurately select patients for nonoperative management. Purpose To evaluate the ability of restaging MRI to predict oncologic outcomes and identify imaging features associated with residual disease (RD) after TNT. Materials and Methods This was a secondary analysis of the Organ Preservation in Rectal Adenocarcinoma (OPRA) trial, which randomized participants from April 2014 to March 2020 with stages II or III rectal adenocarcinoma to undergo either induction or consolidation TNT. Participants enrolled in the OPRA trial who underwent restaging MRI were eligible for inclusion in the present study. Radiologists classified participants as having clinical complete response (cCR), near-complete clinical response (nCR), or incomplete clinical response (iCR) based on restaging MRI at a mean of 8 weeks ± 4 (SD) after treatment. Oncologic outcomes according to MRI response category were assessed using Kaplan-Meier curves. Logistic regression analysis was performed to identify imaging characteristics associated with RD. Results A total of 277 participants (median age, 58 years [IQR, 17 years]; 179 male) who were randomized in the OPRA trial had restaging MRI forms completed. The median follow-up duration was 4.1 years. Participants with cCR had higher rates of organ preservation compared with those with nCR (65.3% vs 41.6%, log-rank P < .001). Five-year disease-free survival for participants with cCR, nCR, and iCR was 81.8%, 67.6%, and 49.6%, respectively (log-rank P < .001). The MRI response category also predicted overall survival (log-rank P < .001), distant recurrence-free survival (log-rank P = .005), and local regrowth (log-rank P = .02). Among the 266 participants with at least 2 years of follow-up, 129 (48.5%) had RD. At multivariable analysis, the presence of restricted diffusion (odds ratio, 2.50; 95% CI: 1.22, 5.24) and abnormal nodal morphologic features (odds ratio, 5.04; 95% CI: 1.43, 23.9) remained independently associated with RD. Conclusion The MRI response category was predictive of organ preservation and survival. Restricted diffusion and abnormal nodal morphologic features on restaging MRI scans were associated with increased likelihood of residual tumor. ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT02008656 © RSNA, 2024 Supplemental material is available for this article. See also the editorial by Milot in this issue.

Hearing preservation and quality of life in small to medium sized vestibular schwannomas after a wait and scan approach or stereotactic radiosurgery: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: The management of vestibular schwannomas (VS) encompasses a choice between conservative "wait-and-scan" (WAS) approach, stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) or open microsurgical resection. Currently, there is no consensus on the optimal management approach for small to medium sized VS. This study aims to compared outcomes related to hearing in patients with small and medium sized VS who underwent initial treatment with WAS versus SRS. METHODS: A systematic review of the available literature was conducted using PubMed/MEDLINE, Embase, and Cochrane up December 08, 2023. Meta-analysis was performed using a random-effect model to calculate mean difference (MD) and relative risk (RR). A leave-one-out analysis was conducted. The risk of bias was assessed via the Risk of Bias in Non-randomized Studies-Interventions (ROBINS-I) and Cochrane Risk of Bias assessment tool (RoB-2). Ultimately, the certainty of evidence was evaluated using the GRADE assessment. The primary outcomes were serviceable hearing, and pure-tone average (PTA). The secondary outcome was the Penn Acoustic Neuroma Quality of Life Scale (PANQOL) total score. RESULTS: Nine studies were eligible for inclusion, comprising a total of 1,275 patients. Among these, 674 (52.86%) underwent WAS, while 601 patients (47.14%) received SRS. Follow-up duration ranged from two to eight years. The meta-analysis indicated that WAS had a better outcome for serviceable hearing (0.47; 95% CI: 0.32 - 0.68; p < 0.001), as well as for postoperative functional measures including PTA score (MD 13.48; 95% CI 3.83 - 23.13; p < 0.01), and PANQOL total score (MD 3.83; 95% CI 0.42 - 7.25; p = 0.03). The overall certainty of evidence ranged from "very low" to "moderate". CONCLUSIONS: Treating small to medium sized VS with WAS increases the likelihood of preserving serviceable hearing and optimized PANQOL overall postoperative score compared to SRS. Nevertheless, the limited availability of literature and the methodological weakness observed in existing studies outline the need for higher-quality studies.

Comparison of 2-year reproductive outcomes of tubal ectopic pregnancies treated with surgery, methotrexate or expectant management.

INTRODUCTION: To compare the 2-year reproductive outcomes of tubal ectopic pregnancies (EP) treated with surgery, methotrexate (MTX) or expectant management. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This case-control study was conducted retrospectively at the Obstetrics-Gynecology and Perinatology Clinics of Etlik Zubeyde Hanim Women's Health Education and Training Hospital. 985 of 1156 patients, who were managed between January 2015 and December 2019 for a tubal EP, tried to conceive in 2 years after treatment: 366 patients underwent surgical treatment; 549 patients were treated with MTX, and 70 patients had expectant management. Clinical data and fertility outcomes were retrieved by medical and hospital records. We compared the three groups based on the 2-year reproductive outcomes of three treatment modalities of tubal EP. RESULTS: There was a significant difference in the frequency of no pregnancy in patients who underwent surgery compared to patients who received expectant management and MTX therapy (p < 0.001). The frequency of no pregnancy was higher in patients who underwent surgery. There was no significant difference between expectant management and MTX therapy (p = 0.411). In the reproductive outcomes of patients who underwent surgery, the incidence of viable pregnancies was statistically lower than in the group treated with expectant management and MTX therapy (p = 0.003). CONCLUSIONS: Patients with an EP often have a future desire to have children, the treatment options are also important. The earlier the diagnosis is made, the more likely it is that expectant management or MTX treatment will be considered. With these two treatment methods, the likelihood of having a child in the future is higher than with surgical treatment.

Preoperative clinical characteristics and 12-month outcomes following operative or non-operative management of asymptomatic aortic aneurysms.

DESIGN: An observational cohort study conducted at a tertiary referral center for aortic surgery to describe the medical and surgical characteristics of patients assessed for abdominal aortic aneurysm repair and examine associations with 12-month outcome. METHODS: Patients with aortic aneurysms referred for discussion at the aortic multidisciplinary meeting (MDM). Data were collected via a prospectively maintained clinical database and included aneurysm characteristics, patient demographics, co-morbidities, geriatric syndromes, including frailty, management decision and 12-month mortality, both aneurysm-related and all-cause including cause of death. The operative and non-operative groups were compared statistically. RESULTS: 621 patients referred to aortic MDM; 292 patients listed for operative management, 141 patients continued on surveillance, 138 patients for non-operative management. There was a higher 12-month mortality rate in the non-operative group compared to the operative group (41% vs 7%, P = <0.001). In the non-operative group, 16 patients (29%) died of aneurysm rupture within 12 months, with 39 patients (71%) dying from other medical causes. Non-operatively managed patients were older, more likely to have cardiac and respiratory disease and more likely to be living with frailty, cognitive impairment and functional limitation, compared to the operative group. CONCLUSION: This study shows that preoperative geriatric syndromes and increased comorbidity lead to shared decision to non-operatively manage asymptomatic aortic aneurysms. Twelve-month mortality is higher in the non-operative group with the majority of deaths occurring due to cause other than aneurysm rupture. These findings support the need for preoperative comprehensive geriatric assessment followed by multispecialty discussion and shared decision making.

An Emulated Target Trial Case Study of Real-World Overall Survival With Second-Line Maintenance Niraparib Versus Active Surveillance in Patients With Recurrent Ovarian Cancer.

PURPOSE: This retrospective real-world study compared overall survival (OS) between patients with BRCA wild-type (BRCAwt) recurrent epithelial ovarian cancer (OC) who received niraparib second-line maintenance (2LM) versus active surveillance (AS) using target trial emulation, cloning, inverse probability of censoring weighting (IPCW) methodology to minimize immortal time bias. METHODS: Eligible patients from a United States-based, deidentified, electronic health record-derived database were diagnosed with epithelial OC (January 1, 2011-May 31, 2021), were BRCAwt, and completed second-line (2L) therapy (January 1, 2017-March 2, 2022). Patient data were cloned at index (2L last treatment date), assigned to niraparib 2LM and AS cohorts, and censored when treatment deviated from clone assignment. Follow-up was measured from index to earliest of study end (May 31, 2022), last activity, or death. Median OS (mOS) and hazard ratios were estimated from stabilized IPCW Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox regression models. RESULTS: Overall, 199 patients received niraparib 2LM, and 707 had their care managed with AS. Key characteristics were balanced across cohorts after cloning and stabilized IPCW. Median follow-up was 15.6- and 9.3-months pre-cloning. IPCW mOS was 24.1 months (95% CI: 20.9-29.5) and 18.4 months (95% CI: 15.1-22.8) in niraparib 2LM and AS cohorts, respectively (hazard ratio, 0.77; 95% CI: 0.66-0.89). CONCLUSIONS: This real-world study provides supportive evidence of an OS benefit for patients with BRCAwt recurrent OC who received 2LM niraparib monotherapy compared with those whose care was managed with AS. The analytic strategies implemented were useful in minimizing immortal time bias and measured confounding.

Trends in Active Surveillance for Men With Intermediate-Risk Prostate Cancer.

Importance: Initial management of intermediate-risk prostate cancer is evolving, with no clear recommendation for treatment. Data on utilization of active surveillance for patients with newly diagnosed intermediate-risk prostate cancer may help clarify emerging trends. Objective: To further characterize US national trends of initial management of intermediate-risk prostate cancer. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study included patients with intermediate-risk prostate cancer diagnosed from January 1, 2010, to December 31, 2020. Eligible patients were diagnosed in US hospitals included in the National Cancer Database; National Comprehensive Cancer Network risk stratification guidelines were used to characterize as favorable vs unfavorable intermediate risk. Analysis was performed in September 2023. Exposure: Active surveillance vs intervention with surgery and/or radiation or no treatment. Main Outcomes and Measures: Temporal trends in demographic, clinical, and socioeconomic factors among men with intermediate-risk prostate cancer and their association with the use of active surveillance; further subgroup analysis was conducted for those with favorable vs unfavorable intermediate risk classification. Results: In total, 289 584 men diagnosed with intermediate-risk prostate cancer were identified from 2010 to 2020 (46 147 Black [15.9%], 230 071 White [79.5%]). Among patients, 153 726 (53.1%) underwent prostatectomy, 107 152 (37.0%) underwent radiotherapy, and 15 847 (5.5%) underwent active surveillance as initial treatment strategy. Overall, active surveillance quadrupled from 418 of 21 457 patients (2.0%) in 2010 to 2428 of 28 192 patients (8.6%) in 2020 for the entire cohort (P < .001). Active surveillance increased from 317 of 12 858 patients (2.4%) in 2010 to 2020 of 12 902 patients (13.5%) in 2020 in men with favorable intermediate-risk prostate cancer (P < .001). In the unfavorable intermediate-risk cohort, active surveillance increased from 101 of 8181 patients (1.2%) in 2010 to 408 of 12 861 patients (3.1%) in 2020 (P < .001). On multivariable analysis, use of active surveillance was associated with increased age (age 70-80 years vs <50 years: odds ratio [OR], 3.09; 95% CI, 2.66-3.59), lower Gleason score (3 + 3 vs 3 + 4: OR, 3.45; 95% CI, 3.25-3.66), early T stage (T2c vs T1a through T2a: OR, 0.35; 95% CI, 0.32-0.38), treatment at an academic center (community vs academic center: OR, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.67-0.78), higher level of education (communities with 21% or higher population without high school vs less than 7%: OR, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.67-0.79), insurance type (Medicare or other governmental service vs private: OR, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.07-1.16), proximity to treatment facility (greater than 120 miles vs less than 60 miles: OR, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.68-0.84), facility location (South Atlantic vs New England: OR, 0.54; 95% CI, 0.46-0.53), and lower income (less than $38 000 vs $63 000 or greater: OR, 1.22; 95% CI, 1.14-1.31). Conclusions and Relevance: These findings highlight increasing implementation of active surveillance in the initial management of intermediate risk prostate cancer. Prospective data with improved risk stratification incorporating genomics and digital pathology artificial intelligence as well as novel surveillance strategies may continue to better delineate optimal treatment recommendations in this patient population.