Effect of microplastics on the demography of Brachionus calyciflorus Pallas (Rotifera) over successive generations.

Microplastics (MPs) are becoming increasingly common in freshwater ecosystems. Rotifers may involuntarily ingest MPs through non-selective filtration, thus causing non-real satiety, leading to adverse effects on their demography. Here, we evaluated the acute and chronic effects of MPs (30 µm) on two successive generations of Brachionus calyciflorus s.s. at 20 and 25 °C. Demographic variables and ingestion rates were compared in the absence and presence of microplastics (550 spheres mL-1). For the life table experiments, cohorts of twenty neonates were introduced into 20 mL medium with four replicates per treatment. Ingestion rates of the rotifer were tested at both test temperatures in the absence and presence of the microplastics in 20 mL containers with 1 ind. mL-1 per container. The rotifer population growth rates ranged from 0.55 to 1.05 d-1 depending on the treatment. MPs decreased the fecundity by 20-24 %. The average lifespan of rotifers exposed to MPs in the F0 generation was lower than that in the F1 generation at both temperatures, indicating that pre-exposure of mothers may offer some protection to the offspring. The population growth rate was higher at 25 °C. The ingestion rates were significantly lower in the presence of the microplastics. Our observations indicated that this strain of B. calyciflorus was better adapted to 20 °C; microplastics and higher test temperature resulted in a pronounced changes in the demographic variables of the rotifer.

Exposure to sublethal levels of insecticide-fungicide mixtures affect reproductive success and population growth rates in the solitary bee Osmia cornuta.

In agricultural environments, bees are routinely exposed to combinations of pesticides. For the most part, exposure to these pesticide mixtures does not result in acute lethal effects, but we know very little about potential sublethal effects and their consequences on reproductive success and population dynamics. In this study, we orally exposed newly emerged females of the solitary bee Osmia cornuta to environmentally-relevant levels of acetamiprid (a cyano-substituted neonicotinoid insecticide) singly and in combination with tebuconazole (a sterol-biosynthesis inhibitor (SBI) fungicide). The amount of feeding solution consumed during the exposure phase was lowest in bees exposed to the pesticide mixture. Following exposure, females were individually marked and released into oilseed rape field cages to monitor their nesting performance and assess their reproductive success. The nesting performance and reproductive success of bees exposed to the fungicide or the insecticide alone were similar to those of control bees and resulted in a 1.3-1.7 net population increases. By contrast, bees exposed to the pesticide mixture showed lower establishment, shortened nesting period, and reduced fecundity. Together, these effects led to a 0.5-0.6 population decrease. Female establishment and shortened nesting period were the main population bottlenecks. We found no effects of the pesticide mixture on nest provisioning rate, offspring body weight or sex ratio. Our study shows how sublethal pesticide exposure may affect several components of bee reproductive success and, ultimately, population growth. Our results calls for a rethinking of pollinator risk assessment schemes, which should target not only single compounds but also combinations of compounds likely to co-occur in agricultural environments.

Natural coral recovery despite negative population growth.

Demographic processes that ensure the recovery and resilience of marine populations are critical as climate change sends an increasing proportion on a trajectory of decline. Yet for some populations, recovery potential remains high. We conducted annual monitoring over 9 years (2012-2020) to assess the recovery of coral populations belonging to the genus Pocillopora. These populations experienced a catastrophic collapse following a severe typhoon in 2009. From the start of the monitoring period, high initial recruitment led to the establishment of a juvenile population that rapidly transitioned to sexually mature adults, which dominated the population within 6 years after the disturbance. As a result, coral cover increased from 1.1% to 20.2% during this time. To identify key demographic drivers of recovery and population growth rates (λ), we applied kernel-resampled integral projection models (IPMs), constructing eight successive models to examine annual change. IPMs were able to capture reproductive traits as key demographic drivers over the initial 3 years, while individual growth was a continuous key demographic driver throughout the entire monitoring period. IPMs further detected a pulse of reproductive output subsequent to two further Category 5 typhoon events during the monitoring period, exemplifying key mechanisms of resilience for coral populations impacted by disturbance. Despite rapid recovery, (i.e., increased coral cover, individual colony growth, low mortality), IPMs estimated predominantly negative values of λ, indicating a declining population. Indeed, while λ translates to a change in the number of individuals, the recovery of coral populations can also be driven by an increase in the size of surviving colonies. Our results illustrate that accumulating long-term data on historical dynamics and applying IPMs to extract demographic drivers are crucial for future predictions that are based on comprehensive and robust understandings of ecological change.

A model of long-term population growth with an application to Central West Argentina.

We propose an Ideal Specialization Model to help explain the diversity of population growth trajectories exhibited across archaeological regions over thousands of years. The model provides a general set of expectations useful for guiding empirical research, and we provide a concrete example by conducting a preliminary evaluation of three expectations in Central West Argentina. We use kernel density estimates of archaeological radiocarbon, estimates of paleoclimate, and human bone stable isotopes from archaeological remains to evaluate three expectations drawn from the model's dynamics. Based on our results, we suggest that innovations in the production of food and social organization drove demographic transitions and population expansion in the region. The consistency of population expansion in the region positively associates with changes in diet and, potentially, innovations in settlement and social integration.

Observed declines in body size have differential effects on survival and recruitment, but no effect on population growth in tropical birds.

Declines in body size can be an advantageous physiological response to warming temperatures, or a result of physiological and nutritional stress. Either way, studies often assume that these climate-induced trait changes have important implications for fitness and demography. We leveraged almost three decades of capture-mark-recapture data of 51 bird species in Panama to examine if body size has changed through time, how sensitive body size is to changes in weather, and if body size impacts population demography. We evaluated two metrics of body size, structural size (wing length), and body condition (residual body mass). Over the study, wing length changed in varying directions for 88% of species (23 decrease, 22 increase), but the effects were weak, and change was only significant for two species. Conversely, body condition declined for 88% of species (45), effects were stronger, and that change was significant for 22% of species (11). This suggests that nutritional stress is likely the cause of changes in body size, not an adaptive response to warming. Precipitation metrics impacted body condition across three of our four feeding guilds, while wing length was only impacted by weather metrics for two guilds. This suggests that body condition is more sensitive to change in weather metrics compared to wing length. Lastly, we found that the impact of changes in body size on survival and recruitment was variable across species, but these relationships were in the opposite direction, ultimately resulting in no change in population growth for all but one species. Thus, while different stages (adult survival and recruitment) of populations may be impacted by body size, populations appear to be buffered from changes. The lack of an effect on population growth rate suggests that populations may be more resilient to changes in body size, with implications for population persistence under expected climate change.

Uncontrolled deforestation and population growth threaten a tropical island's water and land resources in only 10 years.

Rapid demographic growth in tropical islands can exacerbate conflicts and pressures on natural resources, as illustrated by the French island of Mayotte where resources are limited. In only 10 years, uncontrolled migration and population growth (+80% of population between 2002 and 2021) have led to a pronounced 3600% increase in deforestation rates (2010-2014) and an intensification of agricultural practices, escalating conflicts over limited land, water, and biodiversity resources. Implementing an original multi-proxy approach to sediment cores, our study reveals a staggering 300% acceleration in erosion during the first wave of migration (2011-2015), followed by a further 190% increase (2019-2021) under sustained migratory and demographic pressures. Sedimentary DNA analysis provided insights into increased connectivity and community changes. By 2050, the population of this region will increase by 74 and 103%, in Comoros and Madagascar islands, respectively. Urgent conservation measures are needed to avoid major socio-environmental crises and to protect resources for future generations.

Mitochondrial DNA Genomes Reveal Relaxed Purifying Selection During Human Population Expansion after the Last Glacial Maximum.

Modern humans have experienced explosive population growth in the past thousand years. We hypothesized that recent human populations have inhabited environments with relaxation of selective constraints, possibly due to the more abundant food supply after the Last Glacial Maximum. The ratio of nonsynonymous to synonymous mutations (N/S ratio) is a useful and common statistic for measuring selective constraints. In this study, we reconstructed a high-resolution phylogenetic tree using a total of 26,419 East Eurasian mitochondrial DNA genomes, which were further classified into expansion and nonexpansion groups on the basis of the frequencies of their founder lineages. We observed a much higher N/S ratio in the expansion group, especially for nonsynonymous mutations with moderately deleterious effects, indicating a weaker effect of purifying selection in the expanded clades. However, this observation on N/S ratio was unlikely in computer simulations where all individuals were under the same selective constraints. Thus, we argue that the expanded populations were subjected to weaker selective constraints than the nonexpanded populations were. The mildly deleterious mutations were retained during population expansion, which could have a profound impact on present-day disease patterns.

Differences in adult nutritional requirements impact the population growth and survival of two related species of rice leaffolders to produce interspecific differentiation.

Nutrition is a limiting feature of species evolution. The differences in nutritional requirements are the evolutionary result of differential adaptations to environmental changes, explaining differences in their ecological traits. Cnaphalocrocis medinalis and Cnaphalocrocis exigua, two related species of rice leaffolders, have similar morphology and feeding properties but different migration and overwintering behaviors. However, it is unclear whether they have evolved adult nutritional differentiation traits to coexist. To explore this issue, this study examined the effects of carbohydrates and amino acids on their reproductive and demographic parameters. The findings indicate that carbohydrate intake prolonged the longevity and population growth of two rice leaffolders, but amino acid intake promoted egg hatching only. However, nutrient deficiency made it impossible for C. medinalis to reproduce successfully and survive, but it did not affect C. exigua. The population expansion and survival of migratory C. medinalis relied on adult nutritional intake. Conversely, the nutrients necessary for C. exigua overwintering activity mostly came from the storage of larvae. The difference in nutritional requirements for population growth and survival between the two rice leaffolders partially explained their differences in migration and overwintering.

The low-lethal concentrations of rotenone and pyrethrins suppress the population growth of Rhopalosiphum padi.

As an important pest on winter wheat, Rhopalosiphum padi (L.) causes damage to the wheat yield by sucking plant nutrients, transmitting plant viruses and producing mildew. R. padi has been reported to develop resistance to pyrethroids and neonicotinoids. To explore potential alternative approaches for R. padi control, the activity of 10 botanical insecticides was evaluated. Results suggested that the toxicity of rotenone and pyrethrins to R. padi were the highest and near to the commonly used chemical insecticides. When exposed to the low-lethal concentrations (LC10, LC30) of rotenone or pyrethrins for 24 h, the lifespan and fecundity of adults in F0 generation decreased significantly compared to control. The negative effect could also be observed in the F1 generation, including the decreased average offspring, longevity of adult, and prolonged nymph period. The population parameters in F1 generation of R. padi were also inhibited by exposing to the low-lethal concentrations of rotenone or pyrethrins, including the decreased net reproductive rate, intrinsic rate of natural increase, finite rate of population increase, and gross reproduction rate. Co-toxocity factor results showed that mixtures of rotenone and thiamethoxam, pyrethrins and thiamethoxam showed synergistic effect. Our work suggested that rotenone and pyrethrins showed negative effect on the population growth under low-lethal concentrations. They are suitable for R. padi control as foliar spraying without causing population resurgence.

Demographic evolution and natural increase projection of the Yanomami indigenous population in Brazil.

The Yanomami population, residing in Brazil's largest indigenous reserve in the Amazon Rainforest, face significant health challenges exacerbated by external threats such as infectious diseases, malnutrition, and mercury contamination from illegal mining. These issues, coupled with inadequate healthcare provision, have led to an alarming increase in mortality rates and potentially threaten the long-term survival of the Yanomami community. This ecological study utilized demographic data from the Special Secretariat of Indigenous Health to explore the demographic evolution and natural increase of the Yanomami Indigenous population in Brazil from 2003 to 2022. Employing population pyramids, crude rates of natural increase, the Mann-Kendall test for trend analysis, and linear regression modeling, the study analyzed vital statistics to forecast demographic trends, with analysis conducted using the R statistical software. Our findings showed a substantial growth of the Yanomami population, yet with a decreasing natural increase rate (τ = -0.33; p = 0.047), suggesting a shift toward population stagnation or decline within the next century. These results call for urgent, coordinated actions to address the complex demographic trends and health challenges faced by Yanomami Indigenous people, ensuring their demographic sustainability and the preservation of their traditional ways of life amidst ongoing environmental and health crises.

The sublethal concentration of acetamiprid suppresses the population growth of 2 species of wheat aphids, Sitobion miscanthi and Schizaphis graminum (Hemiptera: Aphididae).

Sitobion miscanthi and Schizaphis graminum (Rondani) are the 2 main aphid species that occur simultaneously, causing significant loss to wheat production. Acetamiprid has been used to control a variety of pests, including aphids. In this study, the sublethal effect of acetamiprid on S. miscanthi and S. graminum was evaluated using life-table analyses. The results showed that acetamiprid has a high toxicity to S. miscanthi and S. graminum with a LC50 of 1.90 and 3.58 mg/L at 24 h, respectively. The adult longevity and fecundity of S. miscanthi and S. graminum F0 generation were significantly reduced after being exposed to a sublethal concentration of acetamiprid. Additionally, the sublethal concentration of acetamiprid had negative transgenerational effects on S. miscanthi and S. graminum, which showed a significant decrease in fecundity and population life-table parameters involving age-stage-specific survival rate (sxj), age-specific survival rate (lx), and intrinsic rate of increase (r). Furthermore, the population projections showed that the total population size of S. miscanthi and S. graminum was significantly lower in the aphid group exposed to sublethal concentration of acetamiprid compared to the control group. These results suggest that sublethal concentration of acetamiprid suppresses the population growth of S. miscanthi and S. graminum. This finding is beneficial to the control of wheat aphids, and is important to fully understand the role of acetamiprid in integrated pest management.

Trends and cross-country inequalities in the global burden of osteoarthritis, 1990-2019: A population-based study.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the trends and cross-country inequalities of global osteoarthritis (OA) burden over the last 30 years, and further predicted its changes to 2035. METHODS: The estimates and 95 % uncertainty intervals (UIs) for incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) of OA were extracted from Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. We described OA epidemiology at global, regional, and national levels, analyzed 1990-2019 trends in OA burden from overall, local, and multi-dimension scopes, decomposed OA burden according to population size, age structure, and epidemiologic changes, quantified cross-country inequalities in OA burden using standard health equity methods recommended by World Health Organization, and predicted changes of OA burden to 2035. RESULTS: GBD 2019 estimated 527,811,871 (95 % UIs: 478,667,549 to 584,793,491) prevalent cases, 41,467,542 (95 % UIs: 36,875,471 to 46,438,409) incident cases and 18,948,965 (95 % UIs: 9,571,298 to 37,659,660) DALYs cases of OA worldwide in 2019, with the highest cases in East Asia and highest age-standardized rate (ASR) in high-income North America. The global burden of OA increased overall from 1990 to 2019 with the fastest growth observed in the first decade of the 21st century. Decomposition analysis revealed that OA knee (62.78 %), women (60.47 %), and middle sociodemographic index (SDI) quintile (32.35 %) were responsible for the most significant DALYs, whose changes were primarily driven by population growth and aging. A significant increase in SDI-related inequalities was detected, and the gap in DALYs between the highest SDI country and the lowest SDI country increased from 179.5 [95 % confidence interval (CI): 149.3-209.8] per 100,000 in 1990 to 341.9 (95 % CI: 309.5-374.4) per 100,000 in 2019. Notably, although the ASR of incidence, prevalence, and DALYs of OA was predicted to decrease annually from 2020 to 2035, the case number of these metrics was predicted to keeping increasing, with predicted values of 52,870,737 [95 % credible interval (Crl): 39,330,063 to 66,411,411], 727,532,373 (95 % Crl: 542,765,783 to 912,298,962), and 25,986,983 (95 % Crl: 19,216,928 to 32,757,038) in 2035, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: As a major public health issue, the global burden of OA showed an overall increasing trend from 1990 to 2019, which was primarily driven by population growth and aging. Countries with high SDI shouldered disproportionately high OA burden, and the SDI-related inequalities across countries exacerbated over time. This study highlighted great challenges in the control and management of OA, including both growing case number and distributive inequalities worldwide, which may be instructive for better making public health policy and reasonably allocating medical source.

Phase synchronization between culture and climate forcing.

Over the history of humankind, cultural innovations have helped improve survival and adaptation to environmental stress. This has led to an overall increase in human population size, which in turn further contributed to cumulative cultural learning. During the Anthropocene, or arguably even earlier, this positive sociodemographic feedback has caused a strong decline in important resources that, coupled with projected future transgression of planetary boundaries, may potentially reverse the long-term trend in population growth. Here, we present a simple consumer/resource model that captures the coupled dynamics of stochastic cultural learning and transmission, population growth and resource depletion in a changing environment. The idealized stochastic mathematical model simulates boom/bust cycles between low-population subsistence, high-density resource exploitation and subsequent population decline. For slow resource recovery time scales and in the absence of climate forcing, the model predicts a long-term global population collapse. Including a simplified periodic climate forcing, we find that cultural innovation and population growth can couple with climatic forcing via nonlinear phase synchronization. We discuss the relevance of this finding in the context of cultural innovation, the anthropological record and long-term future resilience of our own predatory species.

A framework for understanding climate change impacts through non-compensatory intra- and interspecific climate change responses.

Understanding and predicting population responses to climate change is a crucial challenge. A key component of population responses to climate change are cases in which focal biological rates (e.g., population growth rates) change in response to climate change due to non-compensatory effects of changes in the underlying components (e.g., birth and death rates) determining the focal rates. We refer to these responses as non-compensatory climate change effects. As differential responses of biological rates to climate change have been documented in a variety of systems and arise at multiple levels of organization within and across species, non-compensatory effects may be nearly ubiquitous. Yet, how non-compensatory climate change responses combine and scale to influence the demographics of populations is often unclear and requires mapping them to the birth and death rates underlying population change. We provide a flexible framework for incorporating non-compensatory changes in upstream rates within and among species and mapping their consequences for additional downstream rates across scales to their eventual effects on population growth rates. Throughout, we provide specific examples and potential applications of the framework. We hope this framework helps to enhance our understanding of and unify research on population responses to climate change.

Assessing spatiotemporal population density dynamics from 2000 to 2020 in megacities using urban and rural morphologies.

Rapid urbanization has resulted in the substantial population growth in metropolitan areas. However, existing research on population change of the cities predominantly draws on grid statistical data at the administrative level, overlooking the intra-urban variegation of population change. Particularly, there is a lack of attention given to the spatio-temporal change of population across different urban forms and functions. This paper therefore fills in the lacuna by clarifying the spatio-temporal characteristics of population growth in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) from 2000 to 2020 through the methods of local climate zone (LCZ) scheme and urban-rural gradients. The results showed that: (1) High population density was observed in the compact high-rise (LCZ 1) areas, with a noticeable decline along urban-rural gradients. (2) The city centers of GBA experienced the most significant population growth, while certain urban fringes and rural areas witnessed significant population shrinkage. (3) The rate of growth tended to slow down after 2010, but the uneven development of population-based urbanization was also noticeable, as urbanization and industrialization varied across different LCZ types and cities in GBA. This paper therefore contributes to a deeper understanding of population change and urbanization by clarifying their spatio-temporal contingences at landscape level.

When population growth intensifies intergroup competition, female colobus monkeys free-ride less.

Intergroup aggression often results in the production of public goods, such as a safe and stable social environment and a home range containing the resources required to survive and reproduce. We investigate temporal variation in intergroup aggression in a growing population of colobus monkeys (Colobus vellerosus) to ask a novel question: "Who stepped-up to produce these public goods when doing so became more difficult?". Both whole-group encounters and male incursions occurred more frequently as the population grew. Males and females were both more likely to participate in whole-group encounters when monopolizable food resources were available, indicating both sexes engaged in food defence. However, only females increasingly did so as the population grew, suggesting that it was females who increasingly produced the public good of home range defence as intergroup competition intensified. Females were also more active in male incursions at high population densities, suggesting they increasingly produced the public good of a safe and stable social environment. This is not to say that males were chronic free-riders when it came to maintaining public goods. Males consistently participated in the majority of intergroup interactions throughout the study period, indicating they may have lacked the capacity to invest more time and effort.

What drives wild boar density and population growth in Mediterranean environments?

Accurate prediction of fluctuations of wildlife local number of individuals is crucial for effective population management to minimise human-wildlife conflicts. Climate, habitat, food availability, and density dependence are among the main factors influencing mammalian population dynamics. In southern Europe, precipitation and temperature, particularly during summer have been suggested as key factors affecting wild boar (Sus scrofa L.). However, there is uncertainty regarding the role of these factors and the mechanisms driving population fluctuations. This study utilized long-term data of wild boar populations from 14 study sites collected for 23 years in Catalonia, Spain, to analyse the factors that drive population density and growth rate. Generalized Additive Mixed Models (GAMM) explained respectively, 94 % and 65 % of the density and growth rate variability. Spring precipitation in both current and previous year, female weight, and forest cover (particularly above 60 %) were directly associated with higher wild boar densities and population growth rates. The interaction between crop cover and total annual precipitation also played a significant role in determining population density. Higher densities were linked to lower population growth in the following year, likely due to a density-dependent process. These results suggest that the expected decrease in rainfall linked with global warming may limit the availability of natural resources and potentially slow wild boar population growth. Nevertheless, wild boar can exploit alternative anthropogenic food sources, potentially leading to an increase of human-wildlife conflicts. Therefore, incorporating management policies aimed at restricting wild boar access to human food sources is key for controlling their reproductive output. Additionally, landscape management strategies targeted at diminishing refuge and resource availability in regions experiencing high wild boar impact are essential for contributing to sustainable coexistence between wild boars and human populations.

In vitro evaluation of the potential of mites of the family Macrochelidae (Acari: Mesostigmata) as macrobiological agents against the nematode Haemonchus contortus (Strongylida: Trichostrongylidae).

Small ruminants (sheep and goats) constantly suffer from endoparasitoses caused by gastrointestinal nematodes. Among these, the species Haemonchus contortus (Rudolphi, 1803) is considered to be the one of greatest importance within sheep farming. This nematode is difficult to control due to its resistance to most commercial anthelmintics. The aim of the present study was to assess the potential of macrochelid mites as macrobiological agents for controlling endoparasitoses of sheep caused by the nematode, H. contortus. For this, novel in vitro methodology was used, in which assessments were made not only of the predatory ability but also the population growth of mite species (Macrocheles merdarius, Macrocheles robustulus and Holostaspella bifoliata) when offered larvae of the nematode, H. contortus. The predatory ability of the mites, M. merdarius and H. bifoliata were efficient regarding their predatory ability against H. contortus nematode larvae. The mite, M. merdarius exhibited the highest predation rate with mean distribution values for the treated group of 18656 ± 10091 and for the control group of 1178 ± 712 (P < 0.0001). The species, H. bifoliata presented the highest population growth rate, with a percentage acarid recovery rate of 263% in relation to the number added initially. The data from this in vitro predation experiment suggest that, M. merdarius and H. bifoliata showed promise as macrobiological agents for controlling gastrointestinal endoparasitoses of sheep caused by the nematode, H. contortus given that both species reduced the population of this helminth by more 70% and the number of mites recovered was three times greater than the number added.

National Population Growth Rate, Its Components, and Subnational Contributions: A Research Note.

A population's current growth rate is determined jointly by changes in fertility, mortality, and migration. This overall growth rate is also the average of age-specific growth rates, which can be decomposed into the result of historical changes in fertility, mortality, and migration. However, doing so requires more than 100 years of historical data, meaning that such analyses are possible only in a select few populations. In this research note, we propose an adapted version of the variable-r model to measure contributions to the population growth rate for countries with shorter demographic series. In addition, we extend this model to explore the contribution of subnational changes to the national population growth rate. Our results demonstrate that the age-specific growth rates obtained from short historical series, say 25 years, closely match those of the longer series. These abbreviated age-specific growth rates closely resemble the growth rate at birth of their respective cohorts, which is the major determinant of population growth, except at older ages where mortality becomes the main explanatory element. Exploring subnational populations, we find considerable heterogeneity in the age profile of the components of growth and find that the most populous regions tend to have an outsized impact on national-level growth.