An apolitical risk assessment of the 2024 US elections: The threat of widespread riots and significant business disruption.

Civil disorder has always plagued humanity, with violence being triggered by real or perceived grievances, rumours and speculation, and internal or external agitators. The risk to people, communities, businesses and the rule of law is not isolated to a particular country or society. The propensity for violence and how it is incited is, however, an evolving threat with the advent of the 'modern riot'. The causes of violence centre on economic and social injustice, sports- and event-related riots, a reaction to police or security forces and political unrest. As the US nears the contentious 2024 elections, the failing trust in the three branches of government combined with external global tensions and conflict, threats from domestic extremist groups, a rising acceptance of violence as a means of settling political disagreements, hostile nation actors and international terror groups that exploit societal instability create fertile conditions for widespread violence. Exacerbating these factors are the risks from artificial intelligence (AI) deepfake, rapid mass communications, the citizen journalist, prominent influencers amplifying grievances and inflammatory media reporting. This convergence of exacerbators and accelerants for political discord offers the potential for serious security risks and significant business disruption.

Contagion to unrest: Investigating the link between disease and civil unrest in Africa.

Scholars, policymakers, and citizens alike remain invested in the impact of infectious diseases worldwide. Studies have found that emerging diseases and disease outbreaks burden global economies and public health goals. This article explores the potential link between measles outbreaks and various forms of civil unrest, such as demonstrations, riots, strikes, and other anti-government violence, in four central African countries from 1996 to 2005. Using a difference-in-differences model, we examine whether disease outbreaks have a discernible impact on the prevalence of civil unrest. While our findings indicate that the relationship between disease and civil unrest is not as strong as previously suggested, we identify a notable trend that warrants further investigation. These results have significant implications for health and policy officials in understanding the complex interplay between state fragility, civil unrest, and the spread of disease.

Contemporary slave labor and subjectivity: psychosocial perspectives on the enslaved's narratives / Trabalho escravo contemporâneo e subjetividade: considerações psicossociais sobre narrativas de escravizado(a)s / Trabajo esclavo contemporáneo y subjetividad: consideraciones psicosociales sobre narrativas de personas esclavizadas

This study addresses the relation between subjectivity and contemporary enslaved labor from the enslaved workers' narratives in Brazil. A qualitative social research was carried out based on a constructionist perspective. We sought interaction with rescued workers and used (a) participant observation of workers' routine in an institutional project that supports them and a field diary, (b) semi-structured and open individual interviews with workers and a member of the team project. The fieldwork lasted a year and a half and the analysis followed Content Analysis. Freudian theory and Foucault's thought were used for interpretation, which managed to understand aspects of workers' experiences, exploitation characteristics, parental abandonment, as well as the tensions in self-classification as enslaved. The narratives pointed to a dramatic reality manifested in body exploitation, authoritarian abuses, violence, and negligence. At the same time, these narratives showed forms of worker resistance that calls for further investigations to increase knowledge on the subjective experiences of those who were enslaved.(AU)

O artigo aborda as relações entre subjetividade e trabalho escravo contemporâneo a partir da narrativa de trabalhadores(as) escravazados(as). Foi realizada uma pesquisa social qualitativa em uma perspectiva construcionista. Buscamos a interação com trabalhadores resgatados e realizamos a observação participante da rotina de trabalhadores atendidos em um projeto institucional, com diário de campo, e entrevistas individuais (semiestruturadas e abertas) com trabalhadores(as) e equipe do projeto institucional. O trabalho de campo durou um ano e meio, e a pesquisa foi realizada com o suporte da Análise de Conteúdo. Para a interpretação utilizamos aportes da teoria freudiana e do pensamento de Foucault, com os quais foi possível compreender aspectos das vivências dos trabalhadores, características da exploração, abandonos parentais e tensões em torno da autoclassificação como "escravo". As narrativas apontaram uma realidade dramática manifesta na exploração do corpo, em abusos autoritários, na violência e negligência. Ao mesmo tempo, as narrativas evidenciaram formas de resistência dos trabalhadores que convocam mais investigações para adensar o conhecimento sobre as experiências subjetivas desses que estão num lugar de escravizado(a).(AU)

Este artículo aborda la relación entre la subjetividad y el trabajo esclavo contemporáneo desde la narrativa de trabajadores esclavizados. Se realizó una investigación social cualitativa desde una perspectiva construccionista. Buscamos la interacción con los trabajadores liberados y utilizamos la observación participante de la rutina de los trabajadores atendidos en un proyecto institucional, diario de campo y entrevistas individuales (semiestructuradas y abiertas) con trabajadores y miembros del equipo del proyecto institucional. El trabajo de campo duró un año y medio, y se utilizó como apoyo el análisis de contenido. Para la interpretación se utilizaron aportes de la teoría freudiana y el pensamiento de Foucault, con lo que fue posible comprender aspectos de las vivencias de los trabajadores, características del escenario de explotación, abandono parental y las tensiones relacionadas con la autoclasificación "esclavo". Las narrativas apuntan a una realidad dramática manifestada en la explotación del cuerpo, abuso autoritario, violencia y abandono. Al mismo tiempo, evidenciaron formas de resistencia por parte de los trabajadores, que reclaman más investigaciones para profundizar en el conocimiento sobre las vivencias subjetivas de quienes se encuentran en esclavitud.(AU)

Implicações da prática profissional no acolhimento institucional de crianças: perspectiva de cuidadoras / Implications of professional practice in children's institutional sheltering: caregivers' perspective / Implicaciones de la práctica profesional en el alojamiento institucional de niños: perspectiva de cuidadoras

Este estudo qualitativo teve como objetivo compreender, a partir da teoria de bioecológica de desenvolvimento, as implicações da prática profissional no processo de acolhimento de crianças em uma casa-abrigo, na perspectiva de cuidadoras. As participantes foram 10 profissionais de uma casa-abrigo localizada na região sul do Brasil. Utilizou-se a entrevista semiestruturada e a organização e análise dos dados sustentou-se na Grounded Theory, com auxílio do software Atlas.ti 8.4.14. Os resultados evidenciaram uma centralização das ações de acolhimento e atenção em torno dos cuidados físicos das crianças. As ações para promover suporte e cuidados emocionais dentro da casa-abrigo eram delegadas às profissionais da equipe técnica da instituição. Observou-se que as dificuldades encontradas pelas cuidadoras diziam respeito à falta de segurança e preparação para responder e acolher as demandas emocionais das crianças, as quais estão presentes em diversos momentos do processo de acolhimento. Percebeu-se que as práticas institucionais afetaram decisivamente tanto as ações de acolhimento das participantes e o suporte emocional oferecido às crianças na passagem pela casa-abrigo quanto as cuidadoras, no sentido de vivenciarem no trabalho sentimentos de insegurança. Os resultados tensionam ecologicamente a interação nos processos proximais presentes no desenvolvimento humano. Advoga-se pela reflexão sobre as implicações das práticas institucionais de uma casa-abrigo e o desenvolvimento infantil, visando o cuidado integral dos acolhidos.(AU)

Based on the developmental bioecological theory, this study analyzes the implications of professional practice in children's user embracement at a shelter from the caregivers' perspective. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 10 professionals from a shelter located in southern Brazil. Data organization and analysis was performed based on Grounded Theory using the Atlas.ti 8.4.14 software. Results showed that embracement and attention focus on the physical care of children. Support and emotional care activities were delegated to the institution's technical team. Caregivers faced difficulties regarding the lack of security and preparation to respond to and accept the children's emotional demands, which arise at different moments in the embracement process. The institutional practices decisively affected both user embracement actions and the emotional support offered to the children, as well as the caregivers, in the sense of experiencing feelings of insecurity. These findings ecologically tension the interaction in the proximal processes present in human development. Further reflections on the implications of institutional shelter-based practices for child development are needed to provide comprehensive care.(AU)

Este estudio cualitativo tuvo como objetivo comprender, desde la perspectiva de la teoría bioecológica del desarrollo, las implicaciones de la práctica profesional en el proceso de acogida de niños en una institución infantil desde la perspectiva de las cuidadoras. Las participantes fueron 10 profesionales de una institución de acogida infantil ubicada en la región Sur de Brasil. Se utilizó la entrevista semiestructurada, y para la organización y análisis de datos se aplicó Grounded Theory, con el uso del software Atlas.ti 8.4.14. Los resultados mostraron que las acciones de recepción y atención se centran en el cuidado físico de los niños. Las acciones de promoción de apoyo y cuidado emocional dentro del alojamiento se asignaron a los profesionales del equipo técnico de la institución. Se observó que las dificultades encontradas por las cuidadoras estaban relacionadas con la falta de seguridad y preparación para responder y aceptar las demandas emocionales de los niños, las cuales se encuentran presentes en diferentes momentos del proceso de acogida. Se notó que las prácticas institucionales afectaron decisivamente tanto las acciones de acogida de las participantes como el apoyo emocional que la institución brinda a los niños durante su paso, así como a las cuidadoras en el sentido de experimentar sentimientos de inseguridad en el trabajo. Estos resultados tensan ecológicamente la interacción en los procesos proximales presentes en el desarrollo humano. Se aboga por reflexionar sobre las implicaciones de las prácticas institucionales en los alojamientos institucionales y el desarrollo infantil, apuntando a la atención integral de los acogidos.(AU)

Building and Testing of a Conceptual Model to Describe and Measure the Health of People as Affected by Post-traumatic Stress Disorder During Social Unrest: A Confirmatory Factor Analysis and Structural Equation Modeling.

Background: Social unrest affects people's health and well-being. People's health-related needs during social unrest are concerns in both research and clinical practice. This study aimed to build and test a framework to describe and understand the health status and needs of people with post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) during social unrest. Methods: This study was a cross-sectional survey. A total of 460 people who had experienced post-traumatic distress as a result of the social unrest in 2019 and 2020 were included. A conceptual model comprised four essential areas, namely posttraumatic distress symptoms, participation restrictions, perceived stigma and functional disability, was built from literature. Part 1 validated four instruments that evaluate and define the factor structure of these four areas, In Part II, structural equation modeling was used to test and validate a combined model. Results: Factors underlying the four areas were defined. Analysis using structural equation modeling confirmed a best fit of the model. PTSD symptoms, perceived stigma and participation restriction during social unrest contributed significantly to functional disability; PTSD symptoms exerted a direct effect on participation restriction and perceived stigma; and the effect of PTSD symptoms on functional disability was mediated through its influence on perceived stigma during social unrest. Conclusions: A community-based inclusive approach is essential to understand the holistic needs of people with PTSD during social unrest. To improve health and well-being in addition to evaluating mental health impacts, considering interactions with the rapid change and stressful social environment is essential.

The effect of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic and civil unrest on massive transfusion protocol activations in Minneapolis 2020.

BACKGROUND: The year 2020 presented the transfusion community with unprecedented events and challenges, including the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic, and more recently by civil unrest, following the death of George Floyd in late May of 2020. As a level 1 trauma center located in Minneapolis, Minnesota, Hennepin Healthcare (HCMC) offers a unique perspective into the changes in massive transfusion protocol (MTP) activations and usage during this tumultuous period. This may provide insight for addressing similar future events. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: MTP logs from March 2020 to August 2020 were compared to logs from March to August 2019. The data were de-identified, and MTP activations and component usage were categorized by activation reason. These categories were compared across the 2-year period to examine the impact of COVID-19, including stay-at-home orders, and civil unrest. RESULTS: For the examined 6 months of the year 2020, there were a total of 140 MTP activations, compared to 143 in 2019. There were more activations for violent trauma (VT) in 2020 than 2019 (44 vs. 32). This increase in activations for VT was offset by a decrease in non-trauma activations (54 vs. 66). There was a significant increase in the number of components used in VT activations. DISCUSSION: During 2020, the initial mild decrease in MTP activations was followed by a dramatic increase in the number of activations and component usage for VT in June and July of that year.

Temporal clustering of disorder events during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The COVID-19 pandemic has unleashed multiple public health, socio-economic, and institutional crises. Measures taken to slow the spread of the virus have fostered significant strain between authorities and citizens, leading to waves of social unrest and anti-government demonstrations. We study the temporal nature of pandemic-related disorder events as tallied by the "COVID-19 Disorder Tracker" initiative by focusing on the three countries with the largest number of incidents, India, Israel, and Mexico. By fitting Poisson and Hawkes processes to the stream of data, we find that disorder events are inter-dependent and self-excite in all three countries. Geographic clustering confirms these features at the subnational level, indicating that nationwide disorders emerge as the convergence of meso-scale patterns of self-excitation. Considerable diversity is observed among countries when computing correlations of events between subnational clusters; these are discussed in the context of specific political, societal and geographic characteristics. Israel, the most territorially compact and where large scale protests were coordinated in response to government lockdowns, displays the largest reactivity and the shortest period of influence following an event, as well as the strongest nationwide synchrony. In Mexico, where complete lockdown orders were never mandated, reactivity and nationwide synchrony are lowest. Our work highlights the need for authorities to promote local information campaigns to ensure that livelihoods and virus containment policies are not perceived as mutually exclusive.

COVID-19 pandemic in Malawi: Did public sociopolitical events gatherings contribute to its first-wave local transmission?

INTRODUCTION: The COVID-19 pandemic in Malawi emerged amidst widespread anti-government demonstrations and subsequent mass gatherings. This paper describes the incidence and factors associated with the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic in Malawi. METHODOLOGY: This was a retrospective study of public data analysing geopolitical and immigration activities that occurred between 02 April and 08 September 2020. The Chi-square test of independence was used to tabulate sex and age-related fatality ratios among deaths due to COVID-19-related complications. RESULTS: The drivers for COVID-19 spread were mass gatherings secondary to the country's political landscape and repatriation of citizens from high-risk areas coupled with minimum use of public health interventions. The prevalence was higher in people aged 50-59 years, males and in urban areas. Men had an increased risk of COVID-19-related deaths (Case Fatality Ratio: 1.58 (95% CI 1.11-2.22) compared with women. Furthermore, men and women aged ≥40 years were 16.1 times and 7.1 times more likely to die of COVID-related complications, respectively. Men aged ≥40 years had a 62% increased risk of deaths compared with women of the same age group. CONCLUSION: Mass political gatherings and cross-border immigration from high-risk areas were drivers for infection. Males, older age and urban residence were associated with increased COVID-19 morbidity and mortality. To control the spread of COVID-19 there is a need to regulate mass gatherings and repatriation of citizens, and strengthen the use of preventive health interventions. Men, the older age groups and urban areas should be prioritised for COVID-19 prevention strategies.

Prospective prediction of PTSD and depressive symptoms during social unrest and COVID-19 using a brief online tool.

Large-scale protracted population stressors, such as social unrest and the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), are associated with increased symptoms of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and depression. Cost-effective mental health screening is prerequisite for timely intervention. We developed an online tool to identify prospective predictors of PTSD and depressive symptoms in the context of co-occurring social unrest and COVID-19 in Hong Kong. 150 participants completed baseline and follow-up assessments, with a median duration of 29 days. Three logistic regression models were constructed to assess its discriminative power in predicting PTSD and depressive symptoms at one month. Receiver-operating characteristic analysis was performed for each model to determine their optimal decision thresholds. Sensitivity and specificity of the models were 87.1% and 53.8% for probable PTSD, 77.5% and 63.3% for high-risk depressive symptoms, and 44.7% and 96.4% for no significant depressive symptoms. The models performed well in discriminating outcomes (AUCs range: 0.769-0.811). Probable PTSD was predicted by social unrest-related traumatic events, high rumination, and low resilience. Rumination and resilience also predicted high-risk and no significant depressive symptoms, with COVID-19-related events also predicting no significant depression risk. Accessible screening of probable mental health outcomes with good predictive capability may be important for early intervention opportunities.