Youth Firearm Mortality in the Americas From 2015 to 2022.

This cross-sectional study uses national vital statistics on firearm mortality to investigate trends in firearm deaths among youths in the US, Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia.

Comparison of In-Hospital Mortality and Neurosurgical Intervention Between Intracranial Gunshot Wounds Arising From Long Guns and Handguns: A Propensity Score Matched Study.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Patients with intracranial gunshot wounds (IC-GSWs) often present with severe neurological injuries requiring prompt neurological evaluation. Neurosurgical intervention is reserved for those with reasonable chances of survival. Handguns and long guns, such as shotguns and rifles, have differing mechanisms of injury which may influence surgical candidacy and outcomes. This study aims to compare rates and types of neurosurgical intervention and inpatient outcomes in patients with IC-GSWs handguns and long guns. METHODS: The National Trauma Data Bank was retrospectively queried for patients with IC-GSWs from 2017 to 2019. Patients with long gun IC-GSWs were propensity score matched with those with handgun IC-GSWs based on patient demographics, comorbidities, insurance status, injury extent and severity, and hospital trauma level. Group differences were compared using Student's t-tests and Pearson's χ2 tests, and multivariable logistic regression was used to identify predictors of in-hospital mortality. RESULTS: Overall, patients in the long gun group were more likely to undergo neurosurgical intervention (21% vs 17%, P = .02). Following propensity score matching, the long gun group had lower rates of in-hospital mortality (35% vs 43%, P < .01), lower rates of cardiac arrest (5% vs 8%, P = .02), and lower rates of reoperation (0% vs 2%, P = .02) than the handgun group. In multivariable regression, independent predictors of survival included long gun IC-GSWs (odds ratio [OR] 0.65, CI 0.52-0.83), neurosurgical foreign body removal (OR 0.44, CI 0.33-0.58), intracranial debridement (OR 0.47, 0.33-0.67), and craniectomy (OR 0.46, CI 0.34-0.63). CONCLUSION: Patients with IC-GSWs present to the hospital with severe neurological injury. Neurosurgical intervention was independently associated with decreased mortality. After matching, patients with long gun IC-GSWs experienced lower in-hospital mortality rates compared with those from handguns. This study suggests that patients suffering from long gun IC-GSW may respond particularly well to neurosurgical intervention and firearm type should be considered when determining neurosurgical candidacy.

Household Firearm Ownership and Firearm Mortality.

Importance: Causal associations between household firearm ownership rates (HFRs) and firearm mortality rates are not well understood. Objective: To assess the population-level temporal sequencing of firearm death rates and HFRs. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study used autoregressive cross-lagged models to analyze HFRs, firearm suicide rates, and firearm homicide rates in the US from 1990 to 2018. The suicide analyses included 16 demographic subgroups of adults, defined by study year, state, sex, race and ethnicity, marital status, and urbanicity. The homicide analyses consisted of adult subgroups living in urban or rural areas. Data analysis was conducted from March to December 2023. Exposures: Firearm mortality rates and HFRs. Main Outcomes and Measures: Firearm homicide and suicide rates with HFRs as the exposure, and HFR with mortality as the exposure. Results: A total of 10 416 observations of 16 demographic subgroups by state and 2-year periods were included in the suicide analyses, while 1302 observations from 2 demographic subgroups by state and 2-year period were included in the homicide analysis. At baseline, the mean (SD) rate per 100 000 population across strata was 7.46 (7.21) for firearm suicides and 3.32 (2.13) for firearm homicides. The mean (SD) baseline HFR was 36.9% (20.2%) for firearm suicides and 36.9% (14.8%) for firearm homicides. Higher HFR preceded increases in suicide rates: demographic strata with equal firearm suicide rates but which differ by 18.6 percentage points on HFR (1 SD) would be expected to have firearm suicide rates that diverged by 0.19 (95% CI, 0.15-0.23) deaths per 100 000 population per period. With these differences accumulated over 8 years, firearm suicide rates in subgroups with the highest decile HFR would be expected to have 1.93 (95% CI, 1.64-2.36) more suicides per 100 000 population than strata with lowest decile HFR, a difference of 25.7% of the overall firearm suicide rate in 2018 and 2019. Firearm suicide rates had a smaller magnitude of association with subsequent changes in HFR: strata with equal HFRs but which differ by 1 SD in firearm suicide rates had minimal subsequent change in HFRs (-0.02 [95% CI, -0.04 to 0.01] percentage points). A 1-SD difference in HFRs was associated with little difference in next-period overall firearm homicides rates (0.03 [95% CI, -0.02 to 0.08] per 100 000 population), but a 1-SD difference in homicide rates was associated with a decrease in HFR (-0.09 [95% CI, -0.16 to -0.04] percentage points). Conclusions and Relevance: This cohort study found an association between high HFRs and subsequent increases in rates of firearm suicide. In contrast, higher firearm homicide rates preceded decreases in HFRs. By demonstrating the temporal sequencing of firearm ownership and mortality, this study may help to rule out some theories of why gun ownership and firearm mortality are associated at the population level.

Epidemiology of civilian's gunshot wound injuries admitted to intensive care unit: A retrospective, multi-center study.

BACKGROUND: Few studies investigated the outcome of patients admitted to intensive care unit (ICU) for gunshot wounds (GSW). The purpose of this study was to determine the 28-day mortality, and to analyze the impact of variables on the mortality of patients admitted to ICU with GSW in four French University Hospitals level-1 regional trauma centers. METHOD: All medical files of adult patients (above fifteen years old) admitted to four French University Hospitals level-1 regional trauma centers for GSW were retrospectively analyzed from January 1st 2015 to June 30th 2021. The primary aim was to determine 28-day death rate of patients admitted in ICU for GSW. The secondary aim was to describe biological parameters, injuries and management of patients admitted to our ICUs, and to identify the variables associated with the 28-day mortality rate. A multivariate analysis allowed determining independent mortality factors. A Kaplan-Meier analysis compared mortality according to head injury. RESULTS: Among 17,262 patients screened, 173 (1 %) were admitted for GSW and 162 were analyzed. The 28-day mortality rate was 24.7 %. 77.5 % of deaths occurred within the first 48 h after ICU admission, and 87.5 % of deaths within three days of ICU admission. The 28-day death rate of patients with head injury was significantly higher as compared to patients without head injury (p < 0.001). Out of forty deaths, twenty-three (57.5 %) were due to head injury, and nine (22.5 %) were due to bleeding. The mechanisms were assault (45.1 %), suicide (34.6 %), accident (4.9 %) and unidentified (15.4 %). In a multivariate analysis, variables associated with the 28-day death rate were age, pre-hospital Glasgow coma score, and Injury Severity Score. CONCLUSION: GSW represented 1 % of ICU admission. The 28-day mortality rate was 24.7 %. 77.5 % of deaths occurred within the first 48 h due to head injuries and bleeding. Head injuries were associated with significantly higher mortality rate.

Temporal trends in female firearm homicides across states in the Northeast of Brazil during the period 2000-2019. / Tendência temporal da mortalidade por homicídios femininos por arma de fogo nos estados da região Nordeste do Brasil no período 2000-2019.

This article aims to analyze temporal trends in female firearm homicides in the Northeast of Brazil during the period 2000-2019. We conducted an ecological study using data on firearm homicides of women aged 10 years and over obtained from the Mortality Information System. The population data were taken from the 2010 Census. Homicide rates were calculated after correcting the data to account for differences in the quality and coverage of death records. Trends were assessed using negative binomial regression and described using relative risk and p values. Average annual percentage changes in homicide rates were also calculated. The regional firearm homicide rate during the study period was 4.40 per 100,000 women. Rates were highest in the state of Alagoas (5.40), the 15-19 age group (5.84) and in public thoroughfares (1.58). Trends were upward across all states except Pernambuco, where they were downward, and Alagoas, where rates were stationary. The place of occurrence with the highest percentage increase in firearm homicides over the study period was public thoroughfares. Female firearm homicides showed an upward trend across most northeastern states.

O objetivo deste artigo é analisar a tendência temporal dos homicídios femininos perpetrados por arma de fogo nos estados nordestinos, no período de 2000 a 2019. Estudo ecológico, com dados de homicídios por arma de fogo em mulheres com 10 ou mais anos, registrados no Sistema de Informação Sobre Mortalidade. Os dados de mortalidade e os dados populacionais foram obtidos junto ao Departamento de Informática do Sistema Único de Saúde. Após a correção dos registros de óbito para qualidade e cobertura dos óbitos, as taxas de mortalidade foram calculadas Tendências foram avaliadas por regressão binomial negativa, classificadas de acordo com o valor do risco relativo e valor de p. Calculou-se a variação percentual anual média das taxas de mortalidade. A região apresentou 4,40 homicídios por arma de fogo por 100 mil mulheres no período do estudo, maiores coeficientes em Alagoas (5,40), na faixa etária de 15-19 anos (5,84), e via pública (1,58). As tendências foram ascendentes, com exceção de Pernambuco em que foi descendente, e estacionárias em Alagoas. Os homicídios por arma de fogo em via pública apresentaram maior percentual de aumento no período estudado. Observou-se tendência ascendente nos homicídios femininos perpetrados por arma de fogo na maioria dos estados nordestinos.

Florida's Red Flag Gun Law and Firearm and Nonfirearm Homicide and Suicide Rates.

This study estimates the association between Florida's red flag law enactment and firearm and nonfirearm homicide and suicide rates.

Fallacy of attributing the U.S. firearm mortality epidemic to mental health.

BACKGROUND: Annual global data on mental disorders prevalence and firearm death rates for 2000-2019, enables the U.S. to be compared with comparable counties for these metrics. METHODS: The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) Global Health Burden data were used to compare the prevalence of mental disorders with overall, homicide and suicide firearm death rates including homicides and suicides, in high sociodemographic (SDI) countries. RESULTS: Overall and in none of the nine major categories of mental disorders did the U.S. have a statistically-significant higher rate than any of 40 other high SDI countries during 2019, the last year of available data. During the same year, the U.S. had a statistically-significant higher rate of all deaths, homicides, and suicides by firearm (all p<<0.001) than all other 40 high SDI countries. Suicides accounted for most of the firearm death rate differences between the U.S. and other high SDI countries, and yet the prevalence of mental health disorders associated with suicide were not significantly difference between the U.S. and other high SDI countries. CONCLUSION: Mental disorder prevalence in the U.S. is similar in all major categories to its 40 comparable sociodemographic countries, including mental health disorders primarily associated with suicide. It cannot therefore explain the country's strikingly higher firearm death rate, including suicide. Reducing firearm prevalence, which is correlated with the country's firearm death rate, is a logical solution that has been applied by other countries.

Universal Background Checks, Permit Requirements, and Firearm Homicide Rates.

Importance: A loophole in US gun policy is that people can purchase guns from private sellers without going through any background check. Some states have addressed this loophole by requiring universal background checks for all gun sales, either at the point of sale or through a permit system; however, most studies on the effectiveness of universal background checks have not analyzed these 2 policy mechanisms separately. Objective: To assess the association of point-of-sale background check law and gun permit law, separately, with firearm homicide rates from 1976 through 2022 using the same methods and model specification. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study used a difference-in-differences, fixed-effects regression model to evaluate firearm laws and firearm homicide rates in 48 states from 1976 through 2022. Data were obtained for 48 states except New Hampshire and Vermont and were analyzed in January 2024. Exposures: Implementation of either the law requiring a universal background check at point of sale for all firearms without a permit or the laws combining universal background checks and a state permit requirement for all gun purchasers. Main Outcomes and Measures: Annual, state-specific rates of firearm homicide per 100 000 people. Results: From 1976 through 2022, 12 states adopted the universal background check laws without permitting requirements and 7 states implemented gun permit laws covering all firearms. The mean (SD) firearm homicide rate was 4.3 (0.1) per 100 000 people. Universal background checks for all firearms alone (without a state permitting system) were not associated with overall homicide rates (percentage change, 1.3%; 95% CI, -6.9% to 10.4%) or firearm homicide rates (percentage change, 3.7%; 95% CI, -5.3% to 13.6%). A law requiring a permit for the purchase of all firearms was associated with significantly lower overall homicide rates (percentage change, -15.4%; 95% CI, -28.5% to -0.01%) and firearm homicide rates (percentage change, -18.3%; 95% CI, -32.0% to -1.9%). Conclusions and Relevance: This cross-sectional study found that universal background checks alone were not associated with firearm homicide rates, but a permit requirement for the purchase and possession of firearms was associated with substantially reduced rates of firearm homicide. The findings suggest that combining universal background checks and permit-to-purchase requirements is an effective strategy for firearm-related fatality reduction.

Fatal and Nonfatal Firearm Injury Rates by Race and Ethnicity in the United States, 2019 to 2020.

BACKGROUND: Racial disparities in firearm injury death in the United States are well established. Less is known about the magnitude of nonfatal and total firearm injury. OBJECTIVE: To combine health care data with death certificate data to estimate total firearm injuries in various racial and ethnic groups. DESIGN: Retrospective, cross-sectional study. SETTING: Fatal injury data were collected from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Data on nonfatal injuries were collected from the Nationwide Emergency Department Sample (NEDS), a 20% stratified sample of U.S. emergency department visits, weighted to provide national estimates for the United States, 2019 to 2020. PARTICIPANTS: All firearm injuries and deaths in the United States. INTERVENTION: Race and ethnicity were classified into 5 mutually exclusive categories: Asian or Pacific Islander, Black, Hispanic, Native American, and White. International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision codes were used to classify firearm injury intent. MEASUREMENTS: Incidence of fatal and nonfatal injury in the U.S. population and case-fatality ratios (CFRs). RESULTS: There were 252 376 total firearm injuries, including 84 908 deaths from firearm injures. Of all firearm injuries, 37.8% were unintentional, 37.3% were assault related, 21.0% were self-harm, and 1.3% were law enforcement associated. Self-harm had the highest CFRs (90.9% overall). Unintentional injuries accounted for just 1021 (1.2%) deaths but 94 433 (56.4%) of nonfatal injuries. Rates of self-harm were highest among White persons (11.0 per 100 000 population in 2020) followed by Native Americans (8.6 per 100 000). Rates of assault were highest among Black persons (70.1 per 100 000), as were unintentional injuries (56.1 per 100 000). LIMITATION: Findings are limited by the accuracy of discharge coding in NEDS, particularly regarding injury intent and patient race and ethnicity. CONCLUSION: From 2019 to 2020, the total burden of firearm injuries amounts to an average of 1 injury every 4 minutes and 1 death every 12 minutes in the United States. Racial disparities in firearm injury death are mirrored in nonfatal injury. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: None.

Gunshot injuries in Central Europe - Epidemiology and outcome in Germany, Switzerland and Austria - an analysis based on the TraumaRegister DGU®.

BACKGROUND: Firearms are of special interest in trauma research due to high lethality and criminal value. Strong correlation between guns per capita and fire-arm related deaths has been shown. Most of existing literature regarding gun-shot fatalities are from the U.S. and data for Central Europe is lacking. Thus, the aim of this study was to assess the legal frameworks regarding gun-ownership in Germany (DE), Austria (A) and Switzerland (CH), and to retrospectively analyze data from the TraumaRegister DGU® regarding the epidemiology, injury severity, intention and outcome of gunshot-related deaths in these countries. METHODS: All patients from TR-DGU who sustained a gunshot injury in the time period from 1st January 2009 to 31st December 2019 were considered for analysis. Only cases admitted to level 1 or 2 trauma center in Germany, Switzerland, or Austria were included. Predicted mortality was calculated using the RISC-II. Further, the legal framework for firearm posession were explored. RESULTS: The legal frameworks do not differ significantly between the countries. However, only ex-military men from Switzerland are allowed to keep their automatic (military) weapon at home. We assessed 1312 gunshot fatalities (DE 1,099, A 111, CH 102) of which most were due to suspected suicide (A 72.1 %, CH 64.7 %, and DE 56.6 %, p = 0.003). Act of suspected violent crime or accidental gunshots were rare in all three countries. Amongst all gunshot fatalities, Austria showed the highest mean age (57.6 years), followed by DE (53.4 years) and CH (49.4 years; p < 0.01). Gunshot fatalities amongst all assessed countries due to suspected suicide showed a peak at the age of 60 years and above, whereas suspected violent crime delicts with gunshots were mainly seen in younger age groups. The highest mortality was found in suspected suicide cases, showing a mortality of 82.1 % (predicted 65.2 %) in Switzerland, 75.3 % (predicted 65.8 %) in Austria and 63.7 % (predicted 56.2 %) in Germany. CONCLUSION: Gunshot wounds are still rare in central Europe, but gunshot-related suicide rates are high. Gun ownership laws may have an impact on gunshot wounds due to suspected suicide. Injury patterns differ compared to countries where a high incidence of gun ownership is seen.

A Decade of Firearm Injuries: Children Caught in the Crossfire.

INTRODUCTION: Firearm injuries (FIs) are the leading cause of preventable morbidity and mortality in pediatric patients. In this study, we aim to define evolving trends and avenues for prevention. METHODS: Following institutional review board approval, medical records of patients presenting to our two State-Designated Level 1 Pediatric Trauma Centers for treatment of FIs from 2010 to 2019 were retrospectively reviewed. Data was analyzed with Chi-Squared and Student's t-test; P-value <0.05 was significant. RESULTS: 1037 FI encounters from 1005 unique patients aged 0-21 y were included. 70.4% (n = 730) were determined to be assaults, 26.1% (n = 271) unintentional, and 1.7% (n = 18) self-inflicted injuries. Overall mortality was 4.5% (n = 45). FI victims were most commonly African American (n = 836, 80.6%), male (n = 869, 83.8%), aged 13-17 (n = 753, 72.6%), and from single-parent families (n = 647, 62.4%). The incidence of FIs increased significantly over the last 5 y of the study (2010-2014, 6.8 FIs/month), compared to 2015-2019 (averaging 10.6 FIs/month, P < 0.0001). Concurrently, FI related fatality increased from an average of 2.6 deaths/year (2010-2014) to 6.4 deaths/year (2015-2019, P = 0.064). Results were subanalyzed for pediatric patients aged 0-14 y. For the entire cohort, 12.1% (n = 116) recidivists were identified. Geographic patterns of injury were identified, with 75% of all FIs clustered in a single urban region. CONCLUSIONS: Incidence of pediatric FIs is increasing in recent years, with high mortality rates. Violence and recidivism are geographically concentrated, offering an opportunity for targeted interventions.

State Policies Regulating Firearms and Changes in Firearm Mortality.

Importance: Despite high social and public health costs of firearm violence in the United States, the effects of many policies designed to reduce firearm mortality remain uncertain. Objective: To estimate the individual and joint effect sizes of state firearm policies on firearm-related mortality. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this comparative effectiveness study, bayesian methods were used to model panel data of annual, state-level mortality rates (1979-2019) for all US firearm decedents, with analyses conducted in October 2023. Exposures: Six classes of firearms policies: background checks, minimum age, waiting periods, child access, concealed carry, and stand-your-ground laws. Main Outcome and Measures: Primary outcomes (total firearm deaths, firearm homicide deaths, and firearm suicide deaths) were assessed using the National Vital Statistics System. Bayesian estimation was used to estimate the partial association of changes in firearms policies with subsequent changes in firearm mortality. Results: The estimated effect sizes of individual policies 5 or more years after implementation were generally small in magnitude and had considerable uncertainty. The policy class with the highest probability of reducing firearm deaths was child-access prevention laws, estimated to reduce overall firearm mortality by 6% (80% credible interval [CrI], -2% to -9%). The policy class with the highest probability of increasing firearm deaths was stand-your-ground laws, estimated to increase firearm homicides by 6% (80% CrI, 0% to 13% increase). Estimates of association of implementing multiple firearm restrictions with subsequent changes in firearm mortality yielded larger effect sizes. Moving from the most permissive to most restrictive set of firearm policies was associated with an estimated 20% reduction in firearm deaths (80% CrI, 10% to 28% reduction), with a 0.99 probability of any reductions in firearm death rates. Conclusions and Relevance: In this comparative effectiveness study of state firearm policies, the joint effect estimates of combinations of firearm laws were calculated, showing that restrictive firearm policies were associated with substantial reductions in firearm mortality. Although policymakers would benefit from knowing the effects of individual policies, the estimated changes in firearm mortality following implementation of individual policies were often small and uncertain.

A trauma expert consensus: Capabilities are required early to improve survivability from traumatic injury.

BACKGROUND: Mortality reviews examine US military fatalities resulting from traumatic injuries during combat operations. These reviews are essential to the evolution of the military trauma system to improve individual, unit, and system-level trauma care delivery and inform trauma system protocols and guidelines. This study identifies specific prehospital and hospital interventions with the potential to provide survival benefits. METHODS: US Special Operations Command fatalities with battle injuries deemed potentially survivable (2001-2021) were extracted from previous mortality reviews. A military trauma review panel consisting of trauma surgeons, forensic pathologists, and prehospital and emergency medicine specialists conducted a methodical review to identify prehospital, hospital, and resuscitation interventions (e.g., laparotomy, blood transfusion) with the potential to have provided a survival benefit. RESULTS: Of 388 US Special Operations Command battle-injured fatalities, 100 were deemed potentially survivable. Of these (median age, 29 years; all male), 76.0% were injured in Afghanistan, and 75% died prehospital. Gunshot wounds were in 62.0%, followed by blast injury (37%), and blunt force injury (1.0%). Most had a Maximum Abbreviated Injury Scale severity classified as 4 (severe) (55.0%) and 5 (critical) (41.0%). The panel recommended 433 interventions (prehospital, 188; hospital, 315). The most recommended prehospital intervention was blood transfusion (95%), followed by finger/tube thoracostomy (47%). The most common hospital recommendations were thoracotomy and definitive vascular repair. Whole blood transfusion was assessed for each fatality: 74% would have required ≥10 U of blood, 20% would have required 5 to 10 U, 1% would have required 1 to 4 U, and 5% would not have required blood products to impact survival. Five may have benefited from a prehospital laparotomy. CONCLUSION: This study systematically identified capabilities needed to provide a survival benefit and examined interventions needed to inform trauma system efforts along the continuum of care. The determination was that blood transfusion and massive transfusion shortly after traumatic injury would impact survival the most. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Prognostic and Epidemiological; Level V.

Deaths due to tired bullet injuries: Evaluation from medical, legal, and social perspectives.

BACKGROUND: In Türkiye, as in other parts of the world, there is a rising trend in individual armament and firearm violence, resembling an epidemic. When fired into the air, bullets eventually lose the initial speed with which they left the barrel and begin to accelerate downwards under the influence of gravity as they fall to the ground. At this point, these projectiles are referred to as 'tired bullets,' which cause serious injuries and fatalities. This study evaluates autopsy cases of deaths due to tired bullet injuries. We aimed to raise social awareness and contribute to the literature by exploring the forensic, legal, and social dimensions of tired bullet injuries. METHODS: From 2013 to 2022, 695 forensic autopsies of gunshot wounds were reviewed at the Trabzon Forensic Medicine Group Presidency. Nine cases were identified where individuals had undergone autopsies and the cause of death was attributed to tired bullet injuries. The data for the cases included in the study was sourced from our archive records and the UYAP (National Judicial Network Project) system. The second stage involved analyzing reports of falling bullet injuries from local and national newspaper websites. In the third stage, the Supreme Court decisions regarding perpetrators of tired bullet incidents were examined. RESULTS: The study included six male and three female cases, with an average age of 32.5 years. Injuries were predominantly located in the head in seven cases, the eye in one case, and the inguinal region in another. In eight cases, the bullet trajectory was from top to bottom. The incidents predominantly occurred in residential areas. It was observed that all cases received coverage in both national and local media, and campaigns against tired bullet injuries were organized. The perpetrators of these injuries were frequently sentenced for murder with probable intent. CONCLUSION: Tired bullet injuries represent a significant public health issue that necessitates comprehensive preventative measures addressing medical, legal, and social dimensions. There should be national and international campaigns led by the media, involving all public institutions, organizations, and non-governmental organizations to promote individual disarmament, highlight the dangers of firearms, and stress the importance of these initiatives.

The Carceral State, Social Disorganization, and Firearm Homicides in Chicago.

Importance: Black and other racially minoritized groups are overrepresented among those who experience firearm homicide. There has been a stark increase in incarcerated populations in the US since the 1980s, largely due to differential drug sentencing, of which racially minoritized individuals are also overrepresented; social disorganization theory postulates that community and family instability resulting from incarceration can further worsen crime. Objective: To understand the association of race-specific incarceration with race-specific firearm violence rates in Chicago, Illinois, through the lens of social vulnerability and family instability. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study with a retrospective cohort design utilized homicide data for the city of Chicago from January 1, 2001, to August 31, 2019. Demographic data at the census block level was obtained from the 2010 decennial census. Incarceration rates were obtained by race and ethnicity at the census tract level from the Opportunity Atlas. Data analysis occurred from January to June 2023. Exposure: Race-specific incarceration rates were the primary exposures of interest. The Social Vulnerability Index and single-parent households were studied as mediators. Main Outcomes and Measures: Race-specific firearm homicide rates were the outcomes of interest. Structural equation modeling was used to understand the mediating effect of social vulnerability and single-parent households on the association of incarceration with firearm homicides. Results: A total of 46 312 census blocks were evaluated. Black-specific incarceration rates were found to be associated with Black-specific firearm homicides (incidence rate ratio [IRR], 1.70; 95% CI, 1.50-1.94), but there was no association for Hispanic incarceration rates (IRR, 0.98; 95% CI, 0.75-1.28) or White incarceration rates (IRR, 1.13; 95% CI, 0.39-1.16). In the association of Black incarceration rates with Black firearm homicide rates, social vulnerability did not mediate the interaction, but the percentage of single-parent households mediated 23% of the interaction. Conclusions and Relevance: This study found that higher rates of incarceration were associated with increased rates of firearm homicides among Black communities alone; this association was found to be mediated partially through the density of single-parent households in these areas, suggesting that social disorganization resulting from mass incarceration may perpetuate firearm homicides. Targeted policies addressing mass incarceration and the disparities therein may be a means of reducing urban firearm homicides.

Firearm Ownership: A Key Factor to Consider in Firearm Suicide Deaths in Children, Despite State Gun Laws.

INTRODUCTION: Firearm-related suicides among children present a significant public health concern and a tragic loss of young lives. This study explores the relationship between firearm-related suicides, gun ownership, and state-specific gun laws. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study collected data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research on children under 18 who died by firearm-related suicides between 2009 and 2016 in all 50 states and D.C. It also utilized data from the RAND State-Level Estimates of Household Firearm Ownership. The study focused on the rate of child firearm suicide deaths per 100,000 individuals. The key variable of interest was the percentage of guns owned per household in each state. Univariable analysis was conducted to examine the association between individual gun laws and child firearm suicide mortalities, while multivariable regression, adjusting for household gun ownership and significant firearm legislation, was employed to assess connection to child firearm suicide mortality. RESULTS: From 2009 to 2016, 3903 children died from firearm-related suicides in the United States. In our analysis, 15 out of 44 firearm laws were found to be associated with reducing the rates of firearm suicides among children (P < 0.05). However, multivariable regression showed that higher state gun ownership rates were the primary predictor of increased child fatalities from firearms, with children in such states being 325% more likely to die when analyzing handgun laws and 337% more likely when analyzing long gun laws, as indicated by coefficients of 4.25 and 4.37, respectively. No state laws alone notably improved death rates. CONCLUSIONS: Gun ownership has a stronger association with child suicide rates than state-specific gun laws. Given the weight of gun ownership, future research should prioritize comprehensive public health initiatives to prevent child firearm-related suicides.

A Statistical Analysis of the Impact of Gun Ownership on Mass Shootings in the USA Between 2013 and 2022.

Mass shootings (incidents with four or more people shot in a single event, not including the shooter) are becoming more frequent in the United States, posing a significant threat to public health and safety in the country. In the current study, we intended to analyze the impact of state-level prevalence of gun ownership on mass shootings-both the frequency and severity of these events. We applied the negative binomial generalized linear mixed model to investigate the association between gun ownership rate, as measured by a proxy (i.e., the proportion of suicides committed with firearms to total suicides), and population-adjusted rates of mass shooting incidents and fatalities at the state level from 2013 to 2022. Gun ownership was found to be significantly associated with the rate of mass shooting fatalities. Specifically, our model indicated that for every 1-SD increase-that is, for every 12.5% increase-in gun ownership, the rate of mass shooting fatalities increased by 34% (p value < 0.001). However, no significant association was found between gun ownership and rate of mass shooting incidents. These findings suggest that restricting gun ownership (and therefore reducing availability to guns) may not decrease the number of mass shooting events, but it may save lives when these events occur.