Application of information from external data to correct for collider bias in a Covid-19 hospitalised cohort.

BACKGROUND: Throughout the Covid-19 pandemic, researchers have made use of electronic health records to research this disease in a rapidly evolving environment of questions and discoveries. These studies are prone to collider bias as they restrict the population of Covid-19 patients to only those with severe disease. Inverse probability weighting is typically used to correct for this bias but requires information from the unrestricted population. Using electronic health records from a South London NHS trust, this work demonstrates a method to correct for collider bias using externally sourced data while examining the relationship between minority ethnicities and poor Covid-19 outcomes. METHODS: The probability of inclusion within the observed hospitalised cohort was modelled based on estimates from published national data. The model described the relationship between patient ethnicity, hospitalisation, and death due to Covid-19 - a relationship suggested to be susceptible to collider bias. The obtained probabilities (as applied to the observed patient cohort) were used as inverse probability weights in survival analysis examining ethnicity (and covariates) as a risk factor for death due to Covid-19. RESULTS: Within the observed cohort, unweighted analysis of survival suggested a reduced risk of death in those of Black ethnicity - differing from the published literature. Applying inverse probability weights to this analysis amended this aberrant result to one more compatible with the literature. This effect was consistent when the analysis was applied to patients within only the first wave of Covid-19 and across two waves of Covid-19 and was robust against adjustments to the modelled relationship between hospitalisation, patient ethnicity, and death due to Covid-19 made as part of a sensitivity analysis. CONCLUSIONS: In conclusion, this analysis demonstrates the feasibility of using external publications to correct for collider bias (or other forms of selection bias) induced by the restriction of a population to a hospitalised cohort using an example from the recent Covid-19 pandemic.

Reduced risk for Omicron SARS-CoV-2 infection observed in older adults with hybrid immunity.

BACKGROUND: Hybrid SARS-CoV-2 immunity may provide longer duration protection against severe SARS-CoV-2 infection and hospitalisation than purely vaccine-derived immunity. Older adults represent a high-risk group for severe disease, yet available data is skewed towards younger adults. METHODS: A prospective longitudinal study at a large London long-term care facility (LTCF) was conducted from March 2020 to April 2022 to assess the effect of hybrid versus vaccine-only immunity on SARS-CoV-2 infection in older adults during Omicron variant dominance. Hybrid immunity was assessed by a combination of SARS-CoV-2 polymerase chain reaction testing weekly (asymptomatic screening) and as required (symptomatic testing), as well as serial SARS-CoV-2 serology. RESULTS: 280 participants (median age 82 yrs, IQR 76-88 yrs; 95.4% male) were followed up. 168/280 (60%) had evidence of hybrid immunity prior to the Omicron variant wave. Participants with hybrid immunity had substantially lower odds of acquiring COVID-19 infection during the Omicron wave compared to those with vaccine-only immunity (unadjusted odds ratio 0.26, 95% CI 0.14-0.47, chi-squared P < .0001). Participants with hybrid immunity had an odds ratio of 0.40 (0.19-0.79) for asymptomatic infection and 0.15 (0.06-0.34) for symptomatic infection (Likelihood ratio test, P < .0001). DISCUSSION: Our data highlight potential opportunities to target ongoing booster vaccination campaigns for those most at risk of severe infection. Reporting of data in older adults will be of particular value to examine the effect of hybrid immunity as new variants continue to emerge and vaccination strategies evolve.

Exploratory study of frequent attenders in general practice to better understand why patients seek help.

BACKGROUND: Frequent attenders (defined as the top 10% of health care users or those making ≥10 visits per year) account for 30-50% of GP consultations. This has significant resource implications. AIM: To understand the characteristics of frequent attenders (≥18-years) at an outer London general practice (list 5,876; deprivation index 5th decile) and reasons for attending. METHOD: A retrospective case note review was conducted using SystmOne of people attending on ≥10 occasions to see a health professional between March 2022 and February 2023. Data were extracted by hand: age, gender, reason and type of consultation, diagnoses, referrals, Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), mortality at one year. Patient notes for ≥30 contacts were reviewed by a senior GP. RESULTS: 544 people (9.3%) attended ≥10 appointments. Of these, five interacted with a GP ≥50 occasions (Group 1;mean age:74.6yrs/female: 4 /CCI:5.0), eight ≥40 occasions (Group 2; 69.6yrs/6.0/5.5) and 35 ≥30 occasions (Group 3;70yrs/27/4.7). Forty-eight people accounted for 882 appointments, 29% face to face and 71% by telephone. Frequency increased with age and CCI. Patients in group 3 underwent more investigations (6.0/6.0/10.0). There was no difference in mean numbers of clinicians seen (6.4/7.1/7.4) or referrals (5.0/4.0/5.0) between the three groups. Frequent attenders tended to fall into two groups: people with chronic diseases, typically associated with anxiety and complex needs, and people with ongoing mental health conditions. Coding was challenging due to complexity. CONCLUSION: Frequent attenders presented due to their medical complexity or mental health disorders rather than medically unexplained symptoms. Most interactions with a GP are understandable.

Changing patterns of penetrating neck injuries at a London-based level 1 major trauma centre: a five-year review.

Penetrating neck trauma is becoming a more frequently encountered presentation in UK emergency departments. Although largely attributable to violent crime, other aetiologies are on the rise. This study aimed to review changes in the pattern of penetrating neck injury (PNI) over a five-year period at our level 1 major trauma centre. Data were retrospectively collected on all patients presenting to the emergency department with PNIs between 2016 and 2021. The number of these injuries doubled between 2016 and 2021, accounting for 11% of all penetrating trauma in 2021. The majority of patients were male (87%). Violence remained the predominant aetiology but numbers of self-harm-related PNIs trebled between 2018 and 2021. PNIs are on the rise. These injuries remain complex to manage and require a multidisciplinary approach. Tackling violent crime remains essential in combating PNIs, but focus must also be placed on identifying and supporting individuals most at risk of deliberate self-harm from a deterioration in mental health.

Why do children under 5 years go to the GP in Lambeth: a cross-sectional study.

OBJECTIVES: This study identifies the most common recorded reason for attendance to primary care for children under 5 years old, including a breakdown via age, ethnicity, deprivation quintile and sex. DESIGN: Cross-sectional. SETTING: 39 of 40 general practices in Lambeth, London, UK. PARTICIPANTS: 22 189 children under 5 years who had attended primary care between the 1 April 2017 and 31 March 2020 and had not opted out of anonymous data sharing within Lambeth DataNet. OUTCOME MEASURE: The primary objective was to identify the most frequently recorded complaint in general practice for children under 5 years old. The secondary objective was to understand how presenting complaint differs by age, ethnicity, sex and deprivation level. The third objective was to create a multivariate logistic regression with frequent attendance as the outcome variable. RESULTS: Nine conditions formed over 50% of all patient interactions: the most common reason was upper respiratory tract infections (14%), followed by eczema (8%) and cough (7%). While there was some variation by ethnicity and age, these nine conditions remained dominant. Children living in the most deprived area are more likely to be frequent attenders than children living in the least deprived area (adjusted OR (AOR) 1.27 (95% CI 1.14 to 1.41)). Children of Indian (AOR 1.47 (1.04 to 2.08)), Bangladeshi (AOR 2.70 (1.95 to 3.74)) and other white (AOR 1.18 (1.04 to 1.34)) ethnicities were more likely to be frequent attenders, compared with those of white British ethnicity. CONCLUSIONS: Most reasons for attendance for children under 5 years to primary care are for acute, self-limiting conditions. Some of these could potentially be managed by increasing access to community care services, such as pharmacies. By focusing on the influence of the broader determinants of health as to why particular groups are more likely to attend, health promotion efforts have the opportunity to reduce barriers to healthcare and improve outcomes.

Thunderstorm asthma: a paediatric emergency department experience in London.

The aim of this study was to characterise paediatric emergency department presentations during the 2023 thunderstorm asthma (TA) epidemic, characterised by a sudden surge in wheeze presentations, with analysis of environmental factors.Wheeze presentations totalled 50 (28%) on 12 June and 18 (19%) 13 June. There was no prior asthma in 39 (57%) and no atopic disorders in 30 (44%). There was neither asthma nor atopic disorders in 8 (12%). 44 (65%) were severe or life-threatening. There were no endotracheal intubations and no deaths. High pollen and air pollution warnings were issued.TA poses a significant, sudden health threat, often in children without asthma. A surge strategy is required.

An investigation of neuropsychiatric symptoms, contextual factors, and antidepressant treatment as risk factors for dementia development in people with mild cognitive impairment.

BACKGROUND: While some people with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) progress to dementia, many others show no progression. The aim of this study was to identify factors associated with risk of dementia development in this population. METHOD: A large naturalistic retrospective cohort study was assembled from mental healthcare records in a south London catchment. Patients were selected at first recorded diagnosis of MCI and subsequent dementia diagnosis was ascertained from case notes or death certificate, excluding those with dementia diagnoses and deaths within 6 months of MCI diagnosis. A range of demographic and clinical characteristics were ascertained around MCI diagnosis and Cox proportional hazards models were used to investigate independent predictors of dementia, focussing on neuropsychiatric symptoms, contextual factors, and antidepressant treatment. RESULTS: Of 2250 patients with MCI, 236 (10.5%) developed dementia at least 6 months after MCI diagnosis. Aside from older age, lower cognitive function, and activities of daily living impairment, impaired social relationships and recorded loneliness were associated with a higher risk of developing dementia. Patients of Black (compared to White) ethnicity were at a lower risk. For depression and antidepressant receipt, only tricyclic use compared to no antidepressant use was associated with an increased dementia risk. CONCLUSIONS: No evidence was found for co-morbid affective disorders or different antidepressant classes as risk factors for dementia development following MCI diagnosis, but loneliness and social impairment were independent predictors and would be worth evaluating as targets for interventions to delay progression.

Comparing outcomes of an 'early' versus 'late' diagnosis of cardiac sarcoidosis following a baseline presentation of high-grade atrioventricular block.

BACKGROUND: There is a paucity of evidence on impact of a delay in Cardiac Sarcoidosis (CS) diagnosis after high-grade atrioventricular-block (AVB) and this study aims to fill this void. METHODS: Consecutive CS patients (n = 77) with high grade AVB referred to one specialist hospital in London between February 2007 to February 2023 were retrospectively reviewed. The median time from AVB to diagnosing CS (112 days) was used to define the Early (n = 38) and Late (n = 39) cohorts. The primary endpoint was a composite of all-cause mortality, cardiac transplantation, ventricular arrhythmic events or heart failure hospitalisation. Secondary endpoints included difference in maintenance prednisolone dose, need for cardiac device upgrade and device complications. RESULTS: The mean age of the cohort was 54.4 (±10.6) years of whom 64 % were male and 81 % Caucasian. After a mean follow up of 54.9 (±45.3) months, the primary endpoint was reached by more patients from the Late cohort (16/39 vs. 6/38, p = 0.02; multivariable HR 6.9; 95 %CI 1.5-32.2, p = 0.01). Early Group were more likely to have received an Implantable Cardioverter Defibrillator or Cardiac Resynchronisation Therapy-defibrillator as index device after AVB (19/38 vs. 6/39; p < 0.01) and had fewer device upgrades (19/38 vs. 30/39, p = 0.01) and a trend towards fewer device complications (1 vs. 5, p = 0.20). The maintenance dose of prednisolone was significantly higher in Late Group [20.7(±9.7) mg vs. 15.3(±7.9) mg, p = 0.02]. CONCLUSION: A late diagnosis of CS was associated with more adverse events, a greater probability of needing a device upgrade and required higher maintenance steroid dose.

Mental health inequalities, challenges and support needs during COVID-19: a qualitative study of 14-to-25-year-olds in London.

OBJECTIVES: The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on adolescent's mental health and relationships has received growing attention, yet the challenges and support needs of adolescents living in existing deprivation are not well understood. The current qualitative study, part of a broader project cocreating mental health and life-skill workshops with young people, documents adolescents' lived experience and support needs 4 years on from the COVID-19 pandemic. DESIGN: 20 semi-structured interviews and 6 focus groups were transcribed and thematically analysed in NVivo V.12 to inform codesigned workshops to support adolescents' needs. SETTING: Islington borough in North London, United Kingdom. PARTICIPANTS: 20 adolescents aged 14-25 years (mean=18.3; 60% female, 60% white) from Islington with a history of difficulties (eg, mental health, deprivation, court order) were referred by Islington local authority teams to our study. RESULTS: Thematic analyses revealed eight themes on adolescents' COVID-19 experiences and five associated suggestions on 'support needs': health challenges and support; relationships and support; routines and support; educational challenges and learning support; inequality and support; distrust; loss of opportunities and grief. CONCLUSIONS: In our qualitative study, adolescents spoke of positive reflections, challenges, and need for support 4 years on from the COVID-19 pandemic. Many adolescents shared their lived experiences for the first time with someone else and wished they would have the space and time to acknowledge this period of loss. Adolescents living with existing inequality and deprivation before the pandemic have reported sustained and exacerbated impacts during the pandemic, hence coproduced support for adolescents should be a priority.

Comparative effectiveness of sotrovimab versus no treatment in non-hospitalised high-risk COVID-19 patients in north west London: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: We assessed the effectiveness of sotrovimab vs no early COVID-19 treatment in highest-risk COVID-19 patients during Omicron predominance. METHODS: Retrospective cohort study using the Discover dataset in North West London. Included patients were non-hospitalised, aged ≥12 years and met ≥1 National Health Service highest-risk criterion for sotrovimab treatment. We used Cox proportional hazards models to compare HRs of 28-day COVID-19-related hospitalisation/death between highest-risk sotrovimab-treated and untreated patients. Age, renal disease and Omicron subvariant subgroup analyses were performed. RESULTS: We included 599 sotrovimab-treated patients and 5191 untreated patients. Compared with untreated patients, the risk of COVID-19 hospitalisation/death (HR 0.50, 95% CI 0.24, 1.06; p=0.07) and the risk of COVID-19 hospitalisation (HR 0.43, 95% CI 0.18, 1.00; p=0.051) were both lower in the sotrovimab-treated group; however, statistical significance was not reached. In the ≥65 years and renal disease subgroups, sotrovimab was associated with a significantly reduced risk of COVID-19 hospitalisation, by 89% (HR 0.11, 95% CI 0.02, 0.82; p=0.03) and 82% (HR 0.18, 95% CI 0.05, 0.62; p=0.007), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Risk of COVID-19 hospitalisation in sotrovimab-treated patients aged ≥65 years and with renal disease was significantly lower compared with untreated patients. Overall, risk of hospitalisation was also lower for sotrovimab-treated patients, but statistical significance was not reached.

The impact of policing and homelessness on violence experienced by women who sell sex in London: a modelling study.

Street-based sex workers experience considerable homelessness, drug use and police enforcement, making them vulnerable to violence from clients and other perpetrators. We used a deterministic compartmental model of street-based sex workers in London to estimate whether displacement by police and unstable housing/homelessness increases client violence. The model was parameterized and calibrated using data from a cohort study of sex workers, to the baseline percentage homeless (64%), experiencing recent client violence (72%), or recent displacement (78%), and the odds ratios of experiencing violence if homeless (1.97, 95% confidence interval 0.88-4.43) or displaced (4.79, 1.99-12.11), or of experiencing displacement if homeless (3.60, 1.59-8.17). Ending homelessness and police displacement reduces violence by 67% (95% credible interval 53-81%). The effects are non-linear; halving the rate of policing or becoming homeless reduces violence by 5.7% (3.5-10.3%) or 6.7% (3.7-10.2%), respectively. Modelled interventions have small impact with violence reducing by: 5.1% (2.1-11.4%) if the rate of becoming housed increases from 1.4 to 3.2 per person-year (Housing First initiative); 3.9% (2.4-6.9%) if the rate of policing reduces by 39% (level if recent increases had not occurred); and 10.2% (5.9-19.6%) in combination. Violence reduces by 26.5% (22.6-28.2%) if half of housed sex workers transition to indoor sex work. If homelessness decreased and policing increased as occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the impact on violence is negligible, decreasing by 0.7% (8.7% decrease-4.1% increase). Increasing housing and reducing policing among street-based sex workers could substantially reduce violence, but large changes are needed.

Occupational exposure to particulate matter and staff sickness absence on the London underground.

The London Underground (LU) employs over 19,000 staff, some of whom are exposed to elevated concentrations of particulate matter (PM) within the network. This study quantified the occupational exposure of LU staff to subway PM and investigated the possible association with sickness absence (SA). A job exposure matrix to quantify subway PM2.5 staff exposure was developed by undertaking measurement campaigns across the LU network. The association between exposure and SA was evaluated using zero-inflated mixed-effects negative binomial models. Staff PM2.5 exposure varied by job grade and tasks undertaken. Drivers had the highest exposure over a work shift (mean: 261 µg/m3), but concentrations varied significantly by LU line and time the train spent subway. Office staff work in office buildings separate to the LU network and are unexposed to occupational subway PM2.5. They were found to have lower rates of all-cause and respiratory infection SA compared to non-office staff, those who work across the LU network and are occupational exposed to subway PM2.5. Train drivers on five out of eight lines showed higher rates of all-cause SA, but no dose-response relationship was seen. Only drivers from one line showed higher rates of SAs from respiratory infections (incidence rate ratio: 1.24, 95% confidence interval 1.10-1.39). Lower-grade customer service (CS) staff showed higher rates of all-cause and respiratory infection SA compared to higher grade CS staff. Doctor-certified chronic respiratory and cardiovascular SAs were associated with occupational PM2.5 exposure in CS staff and drivers. While some groups with higher occupational exposure to subway PM reported higher rates of SA, no evidence suggests that subway PM is the main contributing factor to SA. This is the largest subway study on health effects of occupational PM2.5 exposure and may have wider implications for subway workers, contributing to safer working environments.

Impact of inconsistent ethnicity recordings on estimates of inequality in child health and education data: a data linkage study of Child and Adolescent Mental Health Services in South London.

OBJECTIVES: Ethnicity data are critical for identifying inequalities, but previous studies suggest that ethnicity is not consistently recorded between different administrative datasets. With researchers increasingly leveraging cross-domain data linkages, we investigated the completeness and consistency of ethnicity data in two linked health and education datasets. DESIGN: Cohort study. SETTING: South London and Maudsley NHS Foundation Trust deidentified electronic health records, accessed via Clinical Record Interactive Search (CRIS) and the National Pupil Database (NPD) (2007-2013). PARTICIPANTS: N=30 426 children and adolescents referred to local Child and Adolescent Mental Health Services. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Ethnicity data were compared between CRIS and the NPD. Associations between ethnicity as recorded from each source and key educational and clinical outcomes were explored with risk ratios. RESULTS: Ethnicity data were available for 79.3% from the NPD, 87.0% from CRIS, 97.3% from either source and 69.0% from both sources. Among those who had ethnicity data from both, the two data sources agreed on 87.0% of aggregate ethnicity categorisations overall, but with high levels of disagreement in Mixed and Other ethnic groups. Strengths of associations between ethnicity, educational attainment and neurodevelopmental disorder varied according to which data source was used to code ethnicity. For example, as compared with White pupils, a significantly higher proportion of Asian pupils achieved expected educational attainment thresholds only if ethnicity was coded from the NPD (RR=1.46, 95% CI 1.29 to 1.64), not if ethnicity was coded from CRIS (RR=1.11, 0.98 to 1.26). CONCLUSIONS: Data linkage has the potential to minimise missing ethnicity data, and overlap in ethnicity categorisations between CRIS and the NPD was generally high. However, choosing which data source to primarily code ethnicity from can have implications for analyses of ethnicity, mental health and educational outcomes. Users of linked data should exercise caution in combining and comparing ethnicity between different data sources.

Changes in diet and physical activity following a community-wide pilot intervention to tackle childhood obesity in a deprived inner-London ward.

BACKGROUND: Local authorities in England have an important role in shaping healthy local environments contributing to childhood obesity. This study examined changes in diet and physical activity in primary school children following a three-year, complex, community-based intervention in Golborne ward, the second most deprived ward in London. METHODS: The Go-Golborne intervention aimed to shape the local environment across multiple settings with the engagement of a large number of local government and community stakeholders in a joint approach. Activities focused on six co-created themes to make changes to local environments and reduce sugary snacks and beverage consumption, increase fruit and vegetable intake, promote healthy snacks, increase active play and travel, and reduce screen time. We analysed changes in self-reported diet and physical activity, collected annually between 2016 and 2019, from 1,650 children aged 6-11 years through six local schools, who all received the intervention. We used multilevel, linear and logistic random-slope regression models adjusted for time on study, baseline age, gender, ethnicity, deprivation quintile, school, and baseline weight status. RESULTS: After three years of follow-up, there were reductions in sugar-sweetened beverage consumption (adjusted beta -0·43 occasions/day, 95% CI -0·55 to -0·32), fruit and vegetable consumption (adjusted beta -0.22 portions, 95% CI -0.44 to 0.001) and car travel to and from school (adjusted OR 0·19, 95% CI 0·06 to 0·66), while screen time increased (high versus moderate/low: OR 2·30, 95% CI 1·36 to 3·90). For other behavioural outcomes, there was no statistically significant evidence of changes. CONCLUSION: Local authorities have substantial powers to make positive changes to the obesogenic environment but programmes remain under-evaluated. Results from the ambitious Go-Golborne intervention demonstrated mixed results in health behaviours following programme implementation. These results underline the importance of a coordinated and comprehensive policy response to support changes in wider environmental and social conditions as well as appropriate and holistic evaluations of initiatives to inform local actions on obesogenic environments.

Using online search activity for earlier detection of gynaecological malignancy.

BACKGROUND: Ovarian cancer is the most lethal and endometrial cancer the most common gynaecological cancer in the UK, yet neither have a screening program in place to facilitate early disease detection. The aim is to evaluate whether online search data can be used to differentiate between individuals with malignant and benign gynaecological diagnoses. METHODS: This is a prospective cohort study evaluating online search data in symptomatic individuals (Google user) referred from primary care (GP) with a suspected cancer to a London Hospital (UK) between December 2020 and June 2022. Informed written consent was obtained and online search data was extracted via Google takeout and anonymised. A health filter was applied to extract health-related terms for 24 months prior to GP referral. A predictive model (outcome: malignancy) was developed using (1) search queries (terms model) and (2) categorised search queries (categories model). Area under the ROC curve (AUC) was used to evaluate model performance. 844 women were approached, 652 were eligible to participate and 392 were recruited. Of those recruited, 108 did not complete enrollment, 12 withdrew and 37 were excluded as they did not track Google searches or had an empty search history, leaving a cohort of 235. RESULTS: The cohort had a median age of 53 years old (range 20-81) and a malignancy rate of 26.0%. There was a difference in online search data between those with a benign and malignant diagnosis, noted as early as 360 days in advance of GP referral, when search queries were used directly, but only 60 days in advance, when queries were divided into health categories. A model using online search data from patients (n = 153) who performed health-related search and corrected for sample size, achieved its highest sample-corrected AUC of 0.82, 60 days prior to GP referral. CONCLUSIONS: Online search data appears to be different between individuals with malignant and benign gynaecological conditions, with a signal observed in advance of GP referral date. Online search data needs to be evaluated in a larger dataset to determine its value as an early disease detection tool and whether its use leads to improved clinical outcomes.

Lifetime and 10-year risks of cardiovascular mortality in relation to risk factors in middle and old age: 50-year follow-up of the Whitehall study of London Civil Servants.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease (CVD)-related mortality has declined substantially in the United Kingdom (UK) in recent decades, but the continued relevance of conventional risk factors for prediction of CVD mortality throughout the life-course is uncertain. We compared the 10-year risks and lifetime risks of CVD mortality associated with conventional risk factors recorded in middle and old age. METHODS: The Whitehall study was a prospective study of 19,019 male London civil servants (mean age 52 years) when enrolled in 1967-1970 and followed-up for 50 years for cause-specific mortality. In 1997, 7044 (83%) survivors (mean age 77 years) were re-surveyed. The 10-year and lifetime risks of CVD mortality were estimated by levels of CVD risk factors recorded in middle-age and old-age, respectively. RESULTS: By July 2020, 97% had died (22%, 51% and 80% before age 70, 80 and 90 years, respectively) and 7944 of 17,673 deaths (45%) were from CVD. The 10-year and lifetime risks of CVD death increased linearly with higher levels of CVD risk factors recorded in middle-age and in old-age. Individuals in the top versus bottom 5% of CVD risk scores in middle age had a 10.3% (95% CI:7.2-13.4) vs 0.6% (0.1-1.2) 10-year risk of CVD mortality, a 61.4% (59.4-65.3) vs 31.3% (24.1-34.5) lifetime risk of CVD mortality and a 12-year difference in life expectancy from age 50 years. The corresponding differences using a CVD risk score in old-age were 11.0% (4.4-17.5) vs 0.8% (0.0-2.2) for 10-year risk and 42.1% (28.2-50.0) vs 30.3% (6.0-38.0) for lifetime risk of CVD mortality and a 6-year difference in life expectancy from age 70 years. CONCLUSIONS: Conventional risk factors remained highly predictive of CVD mortality and life expectancy through the life-course. The findings highlight the relevance of estimation of both lifetime risks of CVD and 10-year risks of CVD for primary prevention of CVD.

Investigating the cause of increased tetracycline-resistant Neisseria gonorrhoeae in England, 2016-20.

BACKGROUND: Antimicrobial resistance in Neisseria gonorrhoeae is a global public health concern. Tetracycline resistance (TetR) increased from 39.4% to 75.2% between 2016 and 2021 in N. gonorrhoeae isolates collected through national surveillance in England, despite the absence of use of tetracyclines for the treatment of gonorrhoea. OBJECTIVES: We investigated whether there was correlation between bacterial sexually transmitted infection (STI) tests performed and treatment with antimicrobials, with increased TetR in N. gonorrhoeae. METHODS: We examined correlations between bacterial STI tests, antimicrobial treatment and TetR in N. gonorrhoeae, using national surveillance data from three large sexual health services (SHS) in London during 2016-20. Doxycycline prescribing data and antibiograms of a non-STI pathogen from distinct patient groups (sexual health, obstetric and paediatric), at a large London hospital, were analysed to identify if doxycycline use in SHS was associated with resistance in a non-STI organism. RESULTS: A substantial increase in TetR was observed, particularly in isolates from gay, bisexual and other MSM (GBMSM). Strong positive correlations were observed exclusively in GBMSM between N. gonorrhoeae TetR and both bacterial STI tests (r = 0.97, P = 0.01) and antimicrobial treatment (r = 0.87, P = 0.05). Doxycycline prescribing increased dramatically during the study period in SHS. Prevalence of TetR in Staphylococcus aureus was higher in isolates sourced from SHS attendees than those from other settings. CONCLUSIONS: Frequent screening of GBMSM at higher risk of STIs, such as those on pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) leading to/and increased use of doxycycline for the treatment of diagnosed infections, may account for the increase in TetR in N. gonorrhoeae.

Re-evaluating John Snow's 1856 south London study.

John Snow, the London doctor who studied cholera in the 1840s and 1850s, argued in Snow (1856) that water exerted an "overwhelming influence" on mortality in a region of south London during the 1854 outbreak. In a paper re-assessing Snow's analysis, Koch and Denike (2006) claim that "Snow made not merely minor arithmetic errors but more importantly critical, conceptual mistakes that adversely affected his results." The claim of errors and mistakes is incorrect and due to a misreading or misunderstanding of Snow's data and analysis. Koch and Denike apply an inappropriate statistical test to Snow's original data (and do so incorrectly). More importantly, due to the misreading of the historical record they alter the underlying primary-source data, rendering their results invalid. Analysis of the data following Snow's approach but with modern statistical tools strongly supports Snow's claim for the primacy of water in accounting for variation in cholera mortality.

Waist circumference and cardiometabolic parameters in people of African/Caribbean ancestry with HIV in South London (CKD-AFRICA study).

BACKGROUND: There are no validated waist circumference (WC) cut-offs to define metabolic syndrome in Black people with HIV. METHODS: Cross-sectional analyses within the CKD-AFRICA study. We used Pearson correlation coefficients and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves to describe the relationship between WC and cardiometabolic parameters including triglycerides, cholesterol, glucose, glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c), and homeostatic model assessment for insulin resistance (HOMA-IR), and to identify optimal WC cut-offs for each of these outcomes. RESULTS: We included 383 participants (55% female, median age 52 years) with generally well controlled HIV. Female and male participants had similar WC (median 98 vs. 97 cm, p = .16). Generally weak correlations (r2 < 0.2) between WC and other cardiometabolic parameters were observed, with low (<0.7) areas under the ROC curves. The optimal WC cut-offs for constituents of the metabolic syndrome, HbA1c and HOMA-IR ranged from 92 to 101 cm in women and 89-98 cm in men, respectively; these cut-offs had variable sensitivity (52%-100%) and generally poor specificity (28%-72%). CONCLUSIONS: In this cohort of Black people with HIV, WC cut-offs for cardiometabolic risk factors in male participants were in line with the recommended value of 94 cm while in female participants they vastly exceeded the recommended 80 cm for white women.