Atlas On-line de Mortalidade

O Atlas de Mortalidade por Câncer tem como uma de suas principais finalidades auxiliar os profissionais de saúde pública na determinação de prioridades necessárias à prevenção e ao controle do câncer.

Evaluation of mortality among Marines, Navy personnel, and civilian workers exposed to contaminated drinking water at USMC base Camp Lejeune: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Drinking water at U.S. Marine Corps Base (MCB) Camp Lejeune, North Carolina was contaminated with trichloroethylene and other industrial solvents from 1953 to 1985. METHODS: A cohort mortality study was conducted of Marines/Navy personnel who, between 1975 and 1985, began service and were stationed at Camp Lejeune (N = 159,128) or MCB Camp Pendleton, California (N = 168,406), and civilian workers employed at Camp Lejeune (N = 7,332) or Camp Pendleton (N = 6,677) between October 1972 and December 1985. Camp Pendleton's drinking water was not contaminated with industrial solvents. Mortality follow-up was between 1979 and 2018. Proportional hazards regression was used to calculate adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) comparing mortality rates between Camp Lejeune and Camp Pendleton cohorts. The ratio of upper and lower 95% confidence interval (CI) limits, or CIR, was used to evaluate the precision of aHRs. The study focused on underlying causes of death with aHRs ≥ 1.20 and CIRs ≤ 3. RESULTS: Deaths among Camp Lejeune and Camp Pendleton Marines/Navy personnel totaled 19,250 and 21,134, respectively. Deaths among Camp Lejeune and Camp Pendleton civilian workers totaled 3,055 and 3,280, respectively. Compared to Camp Pendleton Marines/Navy personnel, Camp Lejeune had aHRs ≥ 1.20 with CIRs ≤ 3 for cancers of the kidney (aHR = 1.21, 95% CI: 0.95, 1.54), esophagus (aHR = 1.24, 95% CI: 1.00, 1.54) and female breast (aHR = 1.20, 95% CI: 0.73, 1.98). Causes of death with aHRs ≥ 1.20 and CIR > 3, included Parkinson disease, myelodysplastic syndrome and cancers of the testes, cervix and ovary. Compared to Camp Pendleton civilian workers, Camp Lejeune had aHRs ≥ 1.20 with CIRs ≤ 3 for chronic kidney disease (aHR = 1.88, 95% CI: 1.13, 3.11) and Parkinson disease (aHR = 1.21, 95% CI: 0.72, 2.04). Female breast cancer had an aHR of 1.19 (95% CI: 0.76, 1.88), and aHRs ≥ 1.20 with CIRs > 3 were observed for kidney and pharyngeal cancers, melanoma, Hodgkin lymphoma, and chronic myeloid leukemia. Quantitative bias analyses indicated that confounding due to smoking and alcohol consumption would not appreciably impact the findings. CONCLUSION: Marines/Navy personnel and civilian workers likely exposed to contaminated drinking water at Camp Lejeune had increased hazard ratios for several causes of death compared to Camp Pendleton.

Trends in genitourinary cancer mortality in the United States: analysis of the CDC-WONDER database 1999-2020.

Introduction: Sociodemographic disparities in genitourinary cancer-related mortality have been insufficiently studied, particularly across multiple cancer types. This study aimed to investigate gender, racial, and geographic disparities in mortality rates for the most common genitourinary cancers in the United States. Methods: Mortality data for prostate, bladder, kidney, and testicular cancers were obtained from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) WONDER database between 1999 and 2020. Age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMRs) were analyzed by year, gender, race, urban-rural status, and geographic region using a significance level of p < 0.05. Results: Overall, AAMRs for prostate, bladder, and kidney cancer declined significantly, while testicular cancer-related mortality remained stable. Bladder and kidney cancer AAMRs were 3-4 times higher in males than females. Prostate cancer mortality was highest in black individuals/African Americans and began increasing after 2015. Bladder cancer mortality decreased significantly in White individuals, Black individuals, African Americans, and Asians/Pacific Islanders but remained stable in American Indian/Alaska Natives. Kidney cancer-related mortality was highest in White individuals but declined significantly in other races. Testicular cancer mortality increased significantly in White individuals but remained stable in Black individuals and African Americans. Genitourinary cancer mortality decreased in metropolitan areas but either increased (bladder and testicular cancer) or remained stable (kidney cancer) in non-metropolitan areas. Prostate and kidney cancer mortality was highest in the Midwest, bladder cancer in the South, and testicular cancer in the West. Discussion: Significant sociodemographic disparities exist in the mortality trends of genitourinary cancers in the United States. These findings highlight the need for targeted interventions and further research to address these disparities and improve outcomes for all populations affected by genitourinary cancers.

Ambient air pollution and daily mortality in ten cities of India: a causal modelling study.

BACKGROUND: The evidence for acute effects of air pollution on mortality in India is scarce, despite the extreme concentrations of air pollution observed. This is the first multi-city study in India that examines the association between short-term exposure to PM2·5 and daily mortality using causal methods that highlight the importance of locally generated air pollution. METHODS: We applied a time-series analysis to ten cities in India between 2008 and 2019. We assessed city-wide daily PM2·5 concentrations using a novel hybrid nationwide spatiotemporal model and estimated city-specific effects of PM2·5 using a generalised additive Poisson regression model. City-specific results were then meta-analysed. We applied an instrumental variable causal approach (including planetary boundary layer height, wind speed, and atmospheric pressure) to evaluate the causal effect of locally generated air pollution on mortality. We obtained an integrated exposure-response curve through a multivariate meta-regression of the city-specific exposure-response curve and calculated the fraction of deaths attributable to air pollution concentrations exceeding the current WHO 24 h ambient PM2·5 guideline of 15 µg/m3. To explore the shape of the exposure-response curve at lower exposures, we further limited the analyses to days with concentrations lower than the current Indian standard (60 µg/m3). FINDINGS: We observed that a 10 µg/m3 increase in 2-day moving average of PM2·5 was associated with 1·4% (95% CI 0·7-2·2) higher daily mortality. In our causal instrumental variable analyses representing the effect of locally generated air pollution, we observed a stronger association with daily mortality (3·6% [2·1-5·0]) than our overall estimate. Our integrated exposure-response curve suggested steeper slopes at lower levels of exposure and an attenuation of the slope at high exposure levels. We observed two times higher risk of death per 10 µg/m3 increase when restricting our analyses to observations below the Indian air quality standard (2·7% [1·7-3·6]). Using the integrated exposure-response curve, we observed that 7·2% (4·2%-10·1%) of all daily deaths were attributed to PM2·5 concentrations higher than the WHO guidelines. INTERPRETATION: Short-term PM2·5 exposure was associated with a high risk of death in India, even at concentrations well below the current Indian PM2·5 standard. These associations were stronger for locally generated air pollutants quantified through causal modelling methods than conventional time-series analysis, further supporting a plausible causal link. FUNDING: Swedish Research Council for Sustainable Development.

The impact of urban configuration types on urban heat islands, air pollution, CO2 emissions, and mortality in Europe: a data science approach.

BACKGROUND: The world is becoming increasingly urbanised. As cities around the world continue to grow, it is important for urban planners and policy makers to understand how different urban configuration patterns affect the environment and human health. However, previous studies have provided mixed findings. We aimed to identify European urban configuration types, on the basis of the local climate zones categories and street design variables from Open Street Map, and evaluate their association with motorised traffic flows, surface urban heat island (SUHI) intensities, tropospheric NO2, CO2 per person emissions, and age-standardised mortality. METHODS: We considered 946 European cities from 31 countries for the analysis defined in the 2018 Urban Audit database, of which 919 European cities were analysed. Data were collected at a 250 m × 250 m grid cell resolution. We divided all cities into five concentric rings based on the Burgess concentric urban planning model and calculated the mean values of all variables for each ring. First, to identify distinct urban configuration types, we applied the Uniform Manifold Approximation and Projection for Dimension Reduction method, followed by the k-means clustering algorithm. Next, statistical differences in exposures (including SUHI) and mortality between the resulting urban configuration types were evaluated using a Kruskal-Wallis test followed by a post-hoc Dunn's test. FINDINGS: We identified four distinct urban configuration types characterising European cities: compact high density (n=246), open low-rise medium density (n=245), open low-rise low density (n=261), and green low density (n=167). Compact high density cities were a small size, had high population densities, and a low availability of natural areas. In contrast, green low density cities were a large size, had low population densities, and a high availability of natural areas and cycleways. The open low-rise medium and low density cities were a small to medium size with medium to low population densities and low to moderate availability of green areas. Motorised traffic flows and NO2 exposure were significantly higher in compact high density and open low-rise medium density cities when compared with green low density and open low-rise low density cities. Additionally, green low density cities had a significantly lower SUHI effect compared with all other urban configuration types. Per person CO2 emissions were significantly lower in compact high density cities compared with green low density cities. Lastly, green low density cities had significantly lower mortality rates when compared with all other urban configuration types. INTERPRETATION: Our findings indicate that, although the compact city model is more sustainable, European compact cities still face challenges related to poor environmental quality and health. Our results have notable implications for urban and transport planning policies in Europe and contribute to the ongoing discussion on which city models can bring the greatest benefits for the environment, climate, and health. FUNDING: Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation, State Research Agency, Generalitat de Catalunya, Centro de Investigación Biomédica en red Epidemiología y Salud Pública, and Urban Burden of Disease Estimation for Policy Making as a Horizon Europe project.

Association of increased participation in social activity in later life with risk of all-cause mortality and heart diseases in older people: results from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS).

Background: Previous studies have shown social activity is associated with reduced risk of health outcomes. However, among older people (≥65 years) who were socially inactive at baseline, limited study explored whether increased participation in social activity in later life was associated with reduced risk of health outcomes; therefore, using the data from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey, the study was performed. Methods: The study outcomes were 10-year all-cause mortality (sample number = 9,984) and 10-year heart diseases (sample number = 7,496). The exposure was the change of social activity frequency. Cox regression analysis was used for data analysis. Results: During the follow-up, there were 6,407 all-cause mortalities and 1,035 heart diseases, respectively. Kaplan-Meier analysis demonstrated that cumulative incidences of all-cause mortality were significantly lower in participants with changes into more frequent social activity (log-rank p < 0.001), while no significant difference was observed for heart diseases (log-rank p = 0.330). Compared with the subgroup who never participated in social activity at baseline, adjusted HRs of all-cause mortality were 0.79 (95% CI: 0.70-0.90, p < 0.001), 0.78 (95% CI: 0.63-0.96, p = 0.019), 0.74 (0.59-0.92, p = 0.006), and 0.70 (95% CI: 0.56-0.88, p = 0.002) for the subgroup of switching to sometimes, the subgroup of switching to once a month, the subgroup of switching to once a week, and the subgroup of switching to everyday, respectively. The corresponding HRs of heart diseases were 0.83 (95% CI: 0.65-1.08, p = 0.170), 0.82 (95% CI: 0.51-1.31, p = 0.412), 0.91 (0.58-1.42, p = 0.675) and 0.75 (95% CI: 0.47-1.20, p = 0.227), respectively. Stratified and sensitivity analyses revealed similar results. Conclusion: Among older people who never participated in social activity, increased participation in social activity in later life was associated with reduced risk of all-cause mortality, but was not associated with reduced risk of heart diseases.

Comparative analysis and evolution of civilian versus combatant mortality ratios in Israel-Gaza conflicts, 2008-2023.

Background: There is a need for statistical methodologies that scrutinize civilian casualties in conflicts, evaluating the degree to which the conduct of war affects civilians and breaches the laws of war. Employing an epidemiological method, this study introduced, developed, and applied a novel approach for investigating mortality of civilians versus combatants in conflicts. Methods: A deterministic mathematical model, structured by age and sex, was developed to describe the process of conflict-related deaths among both combatants and civilians. The model was calibrated using demographic and conflict-related data from different Israel-Gaza conflicts. To quantify the extent of the impact on civilians and determine whether they are the primary focus of a conflict, a statistical metric, the index of killing civilians, along with associated criteria, was devised. Results: The model-estimated proportion of deaths in Gaza categorized as combatants was 62.1% (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 57.6-66.2%), 51.1% (95% UI: 47.1-54.9%), and 12.7% (95% UI: 9.7-15.4%) in the 2008-2009, 2014, and 2023 Israel-Gaza conflicts, respectively. The index of killing civilians was 0.61 (95% UI: 0.51-0.74), 0.96 (95% UI: 0.82-1.12), and 7.01 (95% UI: 5.50-9.29) in the 2008-2009, 2014, and 2023 conflicts, respectively. These index values indicate strong evidence for civilians being an object of war in the 2008-2009 and 2014 conflicts, but combatants were still identified as the primary focus of the conflict. In the 2023 conflict, there is robust evidence for civilians being an object of war, with civilians identified as the primary focus of the conflict. Conclusion: Findings imply a progressive shift in Israel's rules of engagement over time, with a trend towards higher acceptance of casualties among civilians. The 2023 conflict stands apart from preceding Israel-Gaza conflicts, with civilians identified as the primary focus of the conflict.

[Spatiotemporal Trends and Driving Factors of PM2.5-related Health Burden in Gansu Province, China from 2013 to 2020].

To evaluate the spatiotemporal trends and drivers of PM2.5-related health effects in Gansu Province since the implementation of the Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan, the latest global exposure mortality model （GEMM） was adopted to estimate the health burden attributable to PM2.5 in Gansu Province from 2013 to 2020. The factor decomposition method was used to further quantify the main causes of the long-term changes in deaths attributable to PM2.5 pollution. The results showed that from 2013 to 2020, the population-weighted PM2.5 concentration in Gansu Province decreased by 34.57%, and the proportion of people exposed to areas with an annual average PM2.5 concentration exceeding 35 µg·m-3 decreased significantly from 72.89% to 11.61%. Moreover, the number of attributable deaths in Gansu Province declined from 12 826 （95%CI： 7 840-17 408） in 2 013 to 9 814 （95%CI： 6 407-13 036） in 2020, indicating a decrease of 23.48%. Attributable deaths from stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, lung cancer, and lower respiratory infection declined, whereas deaths from ischemic heart disease increased by 12.11%. Notably, individuals aged 60 years and older accounted for more than 80% of all age-related deaths. The number of deaths attributable to PM2.5 in central and eastern Gansu Province was significantly higher than that in the Hexi region, and most regions showed a downward trend. The contribution of the total population, age structure, baseline mortality rate, and PM2.5 concentration to the change in PM2.5-related deaths was -1.26%, 16.16%, -9.84%, and -28.55%, respectively. Overall, population aging and a decrease in PM2.5 concentration were the main factors contributing to the increase and decrease in PM2.5-related deaths, respectively. The active clean air policies in Gansu Province have reduced the health burden caused by PM2.5 pollution, but with the trend of population aging, a significant reduction in PM2.5 concentration will be needed in the future to avoid more attributable deaths.

A study on the monitoring of heatwaves and bivariate frequency analysis based on mortality risk assessment in Wuhan, China.

The increasingly frequent occurrence of urban heatwaves has become a significant threat to human health. To quantitatively analyze changes in heatwave characteristics and to investigate the return periods of future heatwaves in Wuhan City, China, this study extracted 9 heatwave definitions and divided them into 3 mortality risk levels to identify and analyze historical observations and future projections of heatwaves. The copula functions were employed to derive the joint distribution of heatwave severity and duration and to analyze the co-occurrence return periods. The results demonstrate the following. (1) As the concentration of greenhouse gas emissions increases, the severity of heatwaves intensifies, and the occurrence of heatwaves increases significantly; moreover, a longer duration of heatwaves correlated with higher risk levels in each emission scenario. (2) Increasing concentrations of greenhouse gas emissions result in significantly shorter heatwave co-occurrence return periods at each level of risk. (3) In the 3 risk levels under each emission scenario, the co-occurrence return periods for heatwaves become longer as heatwave severity intensifies and duration increases. Under the influence of climate change, regional-specific early warning systems for heatwaves are necessary and crucial for policymakers to reduce heat-related mortality risks in the population, especially among vulnerable groups.

Association between dietary patterns and the risk of all-cause mortality among old adults with obstructive sleep apnea.

BACKGROUND: Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) was associated with the increased cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality. And anti-inflammatory dietary has potential to improve the prognosis of OSA. This study aimed to investigate the association of anti-inflammatory dietary patterns with all-cause mortality among individuals with OSA. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study involved 1522 older adults with OSA from 2005 to 2008 in the National Health and Nutrition Examinations Survey (NHANES). Mortality status was determined by routine follow-up through December 31, 2019, using the National Death Index. Anti-inflammatory dietary patterns included Alternate Mediterranean Diet Score (aMED), Healthy Eating Index-2015 (HEI-2015), and Alternate Healthy Eating Index-2010 (AHEI-2010). Weighted Cox proportional hazard regression models were performed to investigate the association between anti-inflammatory dietary pattern and all-cause mortality. RESULTS: After a median follow-up of 131 months, 604 participants were recorded all-cause mortality. The mean age of OSA patients was 68.99 years old, of whom 859 were male (52.34%). Higher adherence of aMED (HR = 0.61, 95%CI: 0.48 to 0.78) and HEI-2015 (HR = 0.75, 95%CI: 0.60 to 0.95) were associated with lower all-cause mortality risk in the elderly with OSA. Conversely, no association was found between AHEI-2010 dietary pattern and all-cause mortality in individuals with OSA. In the component analysis of aMED, it was found that a higher intake of vegetables and olive oil potentially contributes to the reduction all-cause mortality risk in the elderly with OSA (HR = 0.60, 95%CI: 0.48 to 0.76; HR = 0.67, 95%CI: 0.63 to 0.71). CONCLUSION: Higher adherence to the aMED and the HEI-2015 was associated with a lower risk of all-cause mortality in OSA. Future interventions in the elderly with OSA should considering adopting anti-inflammatory dietary patterns.

Global incidence and mortality trends of gastric cancer and predicted mortality of gastric cancer by 2035.

OBJECTIVE: To study the historical global incidence and mortality trends of gastric cancer and predicted mortality of gastric cancer by 2035. METHODS: Incidence data were retrieved from the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents (CI5) volumes I-XI, and mortality data were obtained from the latest update of the World Health Organization (WHO) mortality database. We used join-point regression analysis to examine historical incidence and mortality trends and used the package NORDPRED in R to predict the number of deaths and mortality rates by 2035 by country and sex. RESULTS: More than 1,089,000 new cases of gastric cancer and 769,000 related deaths were reported in 2020. The average annual percent change (AAPC) in the incidence of gastric cancer from 2003 to 2012 among the male population, South Korea, Japan, Malta, Canada, Cyprus, and Switzerland showed an increasing trend (P > 0.05); among the female population, Canada [AAPC, 1.2; (95%Cl, 0.5-2), P < 0.05] showed an increasing trend; and South Korea, Ecuador, Thailand, and Cyprus showed an increasing trend (P > 0.05). AAPC in the mortality of gastric cancer from 2006 to 2015 among the male population, Thailand [3.5 (95%cl, 1.6-5.4), P < 0.05] showed an increasing trend; Malta Island, New Zealand, Turkey, Switzerland, and Cyprus had an increasing trend (P > 0.05); among the male population aged 20-44, Thailand [AAPC, 3.4; (95%cl, 1.3-5.4), P < 0.05] showed an increasing trend; Norway, New Zealand, The Netherlands, Slovakia, France, Colombia, Lithuania, and the USA showed an increasing trend (P > 0.05). It is predicted that the mortality rate in Slovenia and France's female population will show an increasing trend by 2035. It is predicted that the absolute number of deaths in the Israeli male population and in Chile, France, and Canada female population will increase by 2035. CONCLUSION: In the past decade, the incidence and mortality of gastric cancer have shown a decreasing trend; however, there are still some countries showing an increasing trend, especially among populations younger than 45 years. Although mortality in most countries is predicted to decline by 2035, the absolute number of deaths due to gastric cancer may further increase due to population growth.

Patterns and trends in melanoma mortality in the United States, 1999-2020.

INTRODUCTION: Melanoma, a deadly form of skin cancer, has witnessed a notable increase in incidence over the past decades. Despite advancements in treatment, it remains a significant cause of cancer mortality. Understanding demographic trends and variations in melanoma mortality is crucial for addressing disparities and implementing effective interventions. METHODS: Using the Centers for Disease Control Wide Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (CDC WONDER) database, we analyzed melanoma mortality data in the United States from 1999 to 2020. Data were stratified by demographic and regional variables, and age-adjusted mortality rates were calculated. Descriptive analysis was performed and Joinpoint regression analysis was employed to identify temporal trends. RESULTS: Between 1999 and 2020, there were 184,416 melanoma-related deaths in the United States Overall, the age-adjusted mortality rate declined from 2.7 to 2.0 per 100,000 people at a rate of -1.3% annually, with significant variations across demographic groups and regions. Men, non-Hispanic White individuals, and those aged > 65 experienced higher mortality rates. Non-Hispanic White individuals noted the steepest decrease in AAMR after 2013 at a rate of -6.1% annually. Disparities were seen by geographic density, with rural populations exhibiting higher mortality compared to their urban and suburban counterparts. CONCLUSION: The study highlights a significant reduction in melanoma mortality in the U.S. since 2013, potentially attributed to advancements in diagnostic techniques such as dermoscopy and the introduction of immune checkpoint inhibitors. Disparities persist, particularly among rural populations. Targeted interventions focusing on increased screening and education are warranted to further mitigate melanoma mortality and address demographic disparities.

Physical activity is associated with lower mortality in adults with obesity: a systematic review with meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Obesity is a complex chronic disease associated with several adverse health outcomes that increase mortality risk. Physical activity (PA) is recommended for the prevention and treatment of obesity and is related to a decreased risk of cardiovascular disease, cancer and all-cause mortality. This systematic review and meta-analysis estimates the effect of PA levels on mortality (cardiovascular, cancer and all-cause mortality) in adults with obesity. METHODS: A systematic search was conducted in MEDLINE, Embase, Web of Science and SPORTDiscus from inception to June 2024. Prospective cohort studies that explored the association between PA and mortality in adults with obesity (according to their body mass index, ≥ 30 kg/m2) aged ≥ 18 years were included. Our main outcomes were all-cause mortality, and cardiovascular, and cancer mortality reported in primary studies by hazard ratios or relative risk, which were pooled for the meta-analysis when at least two studies reported the effect estimate for the same outcome. The PRISMA recommendations and the MOOSE guidelines were followed. The reported mortality risk estimates comparing insufficiently active versus active (moderate to very active) adults with obesity were pooled using the DerSimonian and Laird random-effects model. RESULTS: A total of 9 prospective cohort studies involving 199,425 adults with obesity (age range: 35-85 years) were included, of which 59,873 were insufficiently active and 84,328 were active. Active individuals had a 21% lower risk of all-cause mortality (HR: 0.79, 95%CI: 0.74 to 0.84; I2 = 38.2%), and a 24% lower risk of cardiovascular mortality (HR: 0.76, 95%CI: 0.66 to 0.87; I2 = 0.0%) than insufficiently active individuals. The HR for cancer mortality was 0.91 (95%CI: 0.80 to 1.02; I2 = 0.0%), and although this was mostly consistent with a benefit, it was based on only two studies. CONCLUSION: Our data support that moderate to high levels of PA are associated with a 21% lower risk of all-cause and 24% cardiovascular disease mortality in adults with obesity. Although data from the only two published studies seem to indicate a protective effect of PA on cancer risk, the estimates are not statistically significant. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: PROSPERO CRD42022309346.

Identification of methodological issues regarding direct impact indicators of COVID-19: a rapid scoping review on morbidity, severity and mortality.

BACKGROUND: During the first epidemic wave, COVID-19 surveillance focused on quantifying the magnitude and the escalation of a growing global health crisis. The scientific community first assessed risk through basic indicators, such as the number of cases or rates of new cases and deaths, and later began using other direct impact indicators to conduct more detailed analyses. We aimed at synthesizing the scientific community's contribution to assessing the direct impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on population health through indicators reported in research papers. METHODS: We conducted a rapid scoping review to identify and describe health indicators included in articles published between January 2020 and June 2021, using one strategy to search PubMed, EMBASE and WHO COVID-19 databases. Sixteen experts from European public health institutions screened papers and retrieved indicator characteristics. We also asked in an online survey how the health indicators were added to and used in policy documents in Europe. RESULTS: After reviewing 3891 records, we selected a final sample of 67 articles and 233 indicators. We identified 52 (22.3%) morbidity indicators from 33 articles, 105 severity indicators (45.1%, 27 articles) and 68 mortality indicators (29.2%, 51). Respondents from 22 countries completed 31 questionnaires, and the majority reported morbidity indicators (29, 93.5%), followed by mortality indicators (26, 83.9%). CONCLUSIONS: The indicators collated here might be useful to assess the impact of future pandemics. Therefore, their measurement should be standardized to allow for comparisons between settings, countries and different populations.

Frailty and its association with long-term mortality among community-dwelling older adults aged 75 years and over.

BACKGROUND: Frailty, a significant risk factor for adverse outcomes and mortality, poses an emerging challenge with profound implications for public health and clinical practice. The measurement of frailty offers potential enhancements in healthcare services for older adults. The prevalence of frailty and its association with long-term mortality in a nationwide, unselected population of community-dwelling older adults, particularly those aged 75 and over, has not been previously studied on a large scale in Israel. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was conducted at Meuhedet Health Maintenance Organization, Israel's third largest healthcare service provider, serving 1,276,000 people (13.8% of Israelis). The prevalence of frailty and its association with all-cause mortality were studied among older adults aged 75 years and over who were followed for 2-8 years. Frailty, defined by the cumulative deficit method, utilized clinical data from the preceding 10-year period, comprising 28 chronic diseases and age-related health deficits. RESULTS: The cohort included 43,737 older adults, with a median age of 77 years (IQR 75-82 years); among them, 19,300 (44.1%) were males. Overall, 19,396 (44.3%) older adults were frail: 12,260 (28.0%) mildly frail, 5,533 (12.7%) moderately frail and 1,603 (3.7%) severely frail. During the follow-up period 15,064 (34.4%) older adults died: 4,782 (39.0%) mildly frail, 3,016 (54.5%) moderately frail and 1,080 (67.4%) severely frail. Cox regression analysis demonstrated that mortality was associated with severe frailty (HR 2.63, 95%CI 2.45-2.80), moderate frailty (HR 2.05, 95%CI 1.96-2.14), and mild frailty (HR 1.45, 95%CI 1.39-1.51), independent of age, gender, and population sector. Among patients aged 90 years and over, no significant differences in cumulative survival were found between those with moderate and severe frailty (p = 0.408). CONCLUSIONS: Frailty is prevalent among community-dwelling Israeli older adults aged 75 years and over, and it is associated with long-term mortality. Considering its association with long-term mortality across frailty levels until the age of 90, early identification and intervention for frailty are recommended within this population. Policymakers should consider the use of the cumulative deficit method for evaluating frailty at both the population health and clinical levels.

Planetary Health Diet Index and risk of total and cause-specific mortality in three prospective cohorts.

BACKGROUND: In 2019, the EAT-Lancet Commission proposed a healthy dietary pattern that, along with reductions in food waste and improved agricultural practices, could feed the increasing global population sustainably. We developed a Planetary Health Diet Index (PHDI) to quantify adherence to the EAT-Lancet reference diet. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to assess associations between PHDI and total and cause-specific mortality in 3 prospective cohorts of males and females in the United States. METHODS: We followed 66,692 females from the Nurses' Health Study (1986-2019), 92,438 females from the Nurses' Health Study II (1989-2019), and 47,274 males from the Health Professionals Follow-up Study (1986-2018) who were free of cancer, diabetes, and major cardiovascular diseases at baseline. The PHDI was calculated every 4 y using a semiquantitative food frequency questionnaire. Hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated using multivariable proportional-hazards models. RESULTS: During follow-up, we documented 31,330 deaths among females and 23,206 among males. When comparing the highest with the lowest quintile of PHDI, the pooled multivariable-adjusted HRs were 0.77 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.75, 0.80] for all-cause mortality (P-trend < 0.0001). The PHDI was associated with lower risk of deaths from cardiovascular diseases (HR: 0.86; 95% CI: 0.81, 0.91), cancer (HR: 0.90; 95% CI: 0.85, 0.95), respiratory diseases (HR: 0.53; 95% CI: 0.48, 0.59), and neurodegenerative diseases (HR: 0.72; 95% CI: 0.67, 0.78). In females, but not males, the PHDI was also significantly associated with a lower risk of deaths from infectious diseases (HR: 0.62; 95% CI: 0.51, 0.76). PHDI scores were also associated inversely with greenhouse gas emissions and other environmental impacts. CONCLUSIONS: In 3 large United States-based prospective cohorts of males and females with up to 34 y of follow-up, a higher PHDI was associated with lower risk of total and cause-specific mortality and environment impacts.

Random survival forest for predicting the combined effects of multiple physiological risk factors on all-cause mortality.

Understanding the combined effects of risk factors on all-cause mortality is crucial for implementing effective risk stratification and designing targeted interventions, but such combined effects are understudied. We aim to use survival-tree based machine learning models as more flexible nonparametric techniques to examine the combined effects of multiple physiological risk factors on mortality. More specifically, we (1) study the combined effects between multiple physiological factors and all-cause mortality, (2) identify the five most influential factors and visualize their combined influence on all-cause mortality, and (3) compare the mortality cut-offs with the current clinical thresholds. Data from the 1999-2014 NHANES Survey were linked to National Death Index data with follow-up through 2015 for 17,790 adults. We observed that the five most influential factors affecting mortality are the tobacco smoking biomarker cotinine, glomerular filtration rate (GFR), plasma glucose, sex, and white blood cell count. Specifically, high mortality risk is associated with being male, active smoking, low GFR, elevated plasma glucose levels, and high white blood cell count. The identified mortality-based cutoffs for these factors are mostly consistent with relevant studies and current clinical thresholds. This approach enabled us to identify important cutoffs and provide enhanced risk prediction as an important basis to inform clinical practice and develop new strategies for precision medicine.

Avoidable Mortality in Korea 1997-2001: Temporal Trend and its Contribution to All-cause Mortality.

Objective: This study analyzed the mortality trends from avoidable causes in Korea from 1997 to 2021, to estimate its contribution to the overall mortality in different subgroups, including. Gender, age, and cause of disease. Methods: The all-cause and avoidable mortality were presented as a time series plot and average annual percent change. Trend of avoidable mortality was also analyzed by subgroups, disease causes and the percentage attributed to each causes. Results: The decline in avoidable mortality accounted for 82.6% of all-cause mortality reduction. Preventable mortality showed a more pronounced decline than treatable mortality, explaining 72.3% of the avoidable mortality reduction. In 1997-2001, avoidable death occurred in 72.2% (537,024 cases) of all-cause deaths, which declined to 60.0% (342,979 cases) in 2017-2021. The contribution of avoidable mortality in the decline of all-cause morality was greater in males (83.6%) than in females (79.3%). Conclusion: The decline in avoidable mortality and its contribution to the all-cause mortality reduction implies general improvement of the population health in Korea. Nevertheless, the heterogenous trend within different subgroups warrants more equitable design and implementation of health services and policies.

Modifiable Risk Factors for Breast Cancer Mortality in Türkiye from 1990 to 2019: A Temporal Analysis of Global Burden of Disease Data.

Background: Breast cancer is the leading cause of cancer-related mortality in women in Türkiye. Aims: Explore the trends in female breast cancer mortality rates and the associated modifiable factors in Türkiye between 1990 and 2019. Study Design: Epidemiological descriptive analysis. Methods: The database of the Global Burden of Disease study was used to obtain data regarding breast cancer-related mortality and modifiable (behavioral and metabolic) risk factors among women in Türkiye from 1990 to 2019. The average annual percentage change (AAPC) for female breast cancer mortality rates was computed using the Joinpoint regression method. Results: From 1990 to 2009, the breast cancer mortality rates in Türkiye tended to increase [from 12.26/105 in 1990 to 12.65/105 in 2019; AAPC=0.1 "95% confidence interval (CI): 0.1-0.1"]. In terms of breast cancer mortality attributed to modifiable factors, a 3% increase was observed from 1990 (20.4%) to 2019 (23.1%), the highest contributor being high body mass index (3.19% in 1990 to 5.87% in 2019; AAPC=1.5; 95% CI: 1.3-1.5), followed by high fasting plasma glucose (5.01% in 1990 to 7.72% in 2019; AAPC=1.4; 95% CI: 1.3-1.5). Conclusion: The proportion of breast cancer-related deaths attributed to metabolic factors has been increasing in Türkiye from 1990 to 2019. Therefore, health policies aimed at managing metabolic factors in women are warranted to reduce breast cancer-related mortality in Türkiye.