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BACKGROUND: Although previous studies have identified specific circulating inflammatory markers associated with the risk of mortality, they have often overlooked the broader impact of a comprehensive inflammatory response on health outcomes. This study aims to assess the association between circulating systemic inflammation and age-related hospitalization and premature death, as well as explore the potential mediating effects of various dietary patterns on these associations. METHODS: A total of 448,574 participants enrolled in the UK Biobank study were included. Circulating C-reactive protein(CRP), white blood cell count(WBC), platelet count(Plt), and neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio(NLR) were measured, which were used to establish a weighted systemic inflammatory index of inflammation index(INFLA-Score). Dietary intake information was documented through 24-hour dietary recalls, and dietary pattern scores including Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension(DASH), Mediterranean(MED), and Healthy Eating Index-2020(HEI-2020) were calculated. Cox proportional hazards regression models were performed to assess the associations between INFLA-Score and age-related disease hospitalization, cause-specific and all-cause premature death. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 12.65 years, 23,784 premature deaths were documented. After adjusting for multiple covariates, higher levels of CRP, WBC, NLR, and INFLA-Score were significantly associated with increased risks of age-related disease hospitalization(HRCRP=1.19; 95%:1.17-1.21; HRWBC=1.17; 95%:1.15-1.19; HRNLR=1.18; 95%:1.16-1.20; HRINFLA-Score=1.19; 95%:1.17-1.21) and premature death(HRCRP=1.68; 95%:1.61-1.75; HRWBC=1.23; 95%:1.18-1.27; HRNLR=1.45; 95%:1.40-1.50; HRINFLA-Score=1.58; 95%:1.52-1.64). Compared to the lowest INFLA-Score group, the highest INFLA-Score group was associated with increased values of whole-body and organ-specific biological age, and had a shortened life expectancy of 2.96 (95% CI 2.53-3.41) and 4.14 (95% CI 3.75-4.56) years at the age of 60 years in women and men, respectively. Additionally, we observed no significant association of the INFLA-Score with aging-related hospitalization and premature death among participants who were more adhering to the Mediterranean (MED) dietary pattern(HRAging-related hospitalization=1.07; 95%:0.99-1.16;HRPremature death=1.19; 95%:0.96-1.47). CONCLUSION: A higher INFLA-Score was correlated with an increased risk of age-related hospitalization and premature death. Nevertheless, adherence to a Mediterranean (MED) diet may mitigate these associations.
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Bancos de Espécimes Biológicos , Dieta Mediterrânea , Inflamação , Mortalidade Prematura , Humanos , Reino Unido/epidemiologia , Feminino , Masculino , Dieta Mediterrânea/estatística & dados numéricos , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Inflamação/sangue , Estudos Prospectivos , Idoso , Adulto , Hospitalização/estatística & dados numéricos , Proteína C-Reativa/análise , Biomarcadores/sangue , Biobanco do Reino UnidoRESUMO
This study aimed to analyze the trends and disparities in preventable or treatable mortality rates among different age groups, sexes, and states in Mexico from 2000 to 2019. Using national data from 2000 to 2019, we examined potentially avoidable premature mortality (PAPM) rates, disaggregated into preventable and treatable deaths. Trends over time were visualized using the average annual percent change (AAPC) derived from joinpoint analysis. Subnational analysis was conducted to identify state-specific trends for each sex and age group. The national PAPM rate decreased from 297 deaths per 100,000 in 2000 to 281 per 100,000 in 2019. Potentially preventable premature mortality (PPPM) rates were more pronounced than potentially treatable premature mortality (PTPM) rates, with 170 deaths per 100,000 and 111 per 100,000, respectively. Sex-based disparities were observed particularly in the working-age population. Our analysis at the state level revealed significant differences in trends, as certain regions experienced reductions while others rises. These disparities became more evident when examining the different aspects of PAPM, especially in terms of PTPM. Our study highlights the differences in PAPM rates across age groups, sexes, and states in Mexico. Despite a general downward trend, upward trends were observed in the male working-age group. There was also wide variation among states, highlighting the need to use PAPM in conjunction with other health metrics for a holistic health analysis.
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Mortalidade Prematura , Humanos , México/epidemiologia , Masculino , Feminino , Mortalidade Prematura/tendências , Adulto , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Adulto Jovem , Adolescente , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Idoso , Lactente , Recém-Nascido , Fatores Sexuais , Distribuição por Idade , Distribuição por Sexo , Fatores Etários , Disparidades nos Níveis de SaúdeRESUMO
Importance: There are consistent data demonstrating that socioeconomic disadvantage is associated with risk of premature mortality, but research on the relationship between neighborhood socioeconomic factors and premature mortality is limited. Most studies evaluating the association between neighborhood socioeconomic status (SES) and mortality have used a single assessment of SES during middle to older adulthood, thereby not considering the contribution of early life neighborhood SES. Objective: To investigate the association of life course neighborhood SES and premature mortality. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study included Black and White participants of the multicenter Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study, a multicenter study conducted in 4 US communities: Washington County, Maryland; Forsyth County, North Carolina; Jackson, Mississippi; and the northwestern suburbs of Minneapolis, Minnesota. Participants were followed up for a mean (SD) of 18.8 (5.7) years (1996-2020). Statistical analysis was performed from March 2023 through May 2024. Exposure: Participants' residential addresses during childhood, young adulthood, and middle adulthood were linked with US Census-based socioeconomic indicators to create summary neighborhood SES scores for each of these life epochs. Neighborhood SES scores were categorized into distribution-based tertiles. Main Outcomes and Measures: Premature death was defined as all-cause mortality occurring before age 75 years. Multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs. Results: Among 12â¯610 study participants, the mean (SD) age at baseline was 62.6 (5.6) years; 3181 (25.2%) were Black and 9429 (74.8%) were White; and 7222 (57.3%) were women. The lowest, compared with the highest tertile, of neighborhood SES score in middle adulthood was associated with higher risk of premature mortality (HR, 1.28; 95% CI, 1.07-1.54). Similar associations were observed for neighborhood SES in young adulthood among women (HR, 1.25; 95% CI, 1.00-1.56) and neighborhood SES in childhood among White participants (HR, 1.25; 95% CI, 1.01-1.56). Participants whose neighborhood SES remained low from young to middle adulthood had an increased premature mortality risk compared with those whose neighborhood SES remained high (HR, 1.25; 95% CI, 1.05-1.49). Conclusions and Relevance: In this study, low neighborhood SES was associated with premature mortality. The risk of premature mortality was greatest among individuals experiencing persistently low neighborhood SES from young to middle adulthood. Place-based interventions that target neighborhood social determinants of health should be designed from a life course perspective that accounts for early-life socioeconomic inequality.
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Mortalidade Prematura , Humanos , Feminino , Masculino , Mortalidade Prematura/tendências , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Características da Vizinhança , Idoso , Adulto , Fatores Socioeconômicos , Classe Social , Características de Residência/estatística & dados numéricos , Estudos de Coortes , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , População Branca/estatística & dados numéricos , Fatores de Risco , Disparidades Socioeconômicas em SaúdeRESUMO
China's swift socioeconomic development has led to extremely severe ambient PM2.5 levels, the associated negative health outcomes of which include premature death. However, a comprehensive explanation of the socioeconomic mechanism contributing to PM2.5-related premature deaths has not yet to be fully elucidated through long-term spatial panel data. Here, we employed a global exposure mortality model (GEMM) and the system generalized method of moments (Sys-GMM) to examine the primary determinants contributing to premature deaths in Chinese provinces from 2000 to 2021. We found that in the research period, premature deaths in China increased by 46 %, reaching 1.87 million, a figure that decreased somewhat after the COVID-19 outbreak. 62 thousand premature deaths were avoided in 2020 and 2021 compared to 2019, primarily due to the decline in PM2.5 concentrations. Premature deaths have increased across all provinces, particularly in North China, and a discernible spatial agglomeration effect was observed, highlighting effects on nearby provinces. The findings also underscored the significance of determinants such as urbanization, import and export trade, and energy consumption in exacerbating premature deaths, while energy intensity exerted a mitigating influence. Importantly, a U-shaped relationship between premature deaths and economic development was unveiled for the first time, implying the need for vigilance regarding potential health impact deterioration and the implementation of countermeasures as the per capita GDP increases in China. Our findings deserve attention from policymakers as they shed fresh insights into atmospheric control and Health China action.
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Poluentes Atmosféricos , Poluição do Ar , Mortalidade Prematura , Material Particulado , Fatores Socioeconômicos , China/epidemiologia , Humanos , Material Particulado/análise , Poluição do Ar/estatística & dados numéricos , Poluentes Atmosféricos/análise , COVID-19/mortalidade , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Exposição Ambiental/estatística & dados numéricos , Análise Espaço-TemporalRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Infections are responsible for â¼13% of cancer cases worldwide, with human papillomavirus (HPV) and hepatitis B (HBV) among the infections associated with cancer for which vaccines are available. The aim of this study was to estimate the indirect cost of premature mortality related to cancers caused by HPV and HBV in Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries. METHODS: The number of deaths and years of life lost (YLL) in 2019 from four HPV-related cancers: cervical cancer, oral cavity cancer, laryngeal cancer, and oropharynx cancer, as well as HBV-related liver cancer were sourced from the Institute for Health Metrics Evaluation (IHME) Global Burden of Disease database. HPV-attributable fractions were applied to deaths and YLL. The human capital approach was used to measure productivity loss, through value of YLL (VYLL), and estimated using gross domestic product per capita (World Bank; in USD). Seventeen countries in the MENA region were included. Four countries in the region were not included due to data availability. RESULTS: In 2019, there were 11,645 potentially vaccine-preventable cancer-related deaths across the MENA region. This resulted in an indirect cost of $1,688,821,605, with 76.1% of this accrued in the Middle East ($1,284,923,633). The number of deaths in the Middle East (5,986) were similar to Northern Africa (5,659) but YLL were higher in Northern Africa (179,425) compared to the Middle East (169,207). The highest indirect cost per death occurred in Qatar ($1,378,991), compared to $14,962 in Sudan. Oral cavity cancer had the highest VYLL per death ($186,084). CONCLUSIONS: There is a high burden of premature mortality and indirect costs of potentially vaccine-preventable cancer-related deaths in the MENA region. Improved vaccination program implementation, increased vaccine coverage of HPV and HBV vaccinations, and continued prioritization of public health measures, such as screening, could effectively reduce premature mortality and associated costs.
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Neoplasias , Humanos , Oriente Médio/epidemiologia , África do Norte/epidemiologia , Feminino , Masculino , Neoplasias/mortalidade , Neoplasias/economia , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Infecções por Papillomavirus/prevenção & controle , Adulto , Efeitos Psicossociais da Doença , Hepatite B/prevenção & controle , Hepatite B/economia , Vacinas contra Papillomavirus/economia , Vacinas contra Papillomavirus/administração & dosagem , Idoso , Mortalidade Prematura , Modelos EconométricosRESUMO
One of modern methods of estimating health losses under malignant neoplasms in economic terms, characterizing number of deaths and age of death are lost years of potential life. The cumulative losses from premature cancer mortality made up to 29 217.5 man-years in 2013 and 39 710 man-years in 2021. The number of years lost over 9 years increased by 10 492.5 man-years despite decreasing of mortality across all ages. The rate of lost years of potential life during this period increased from 5.3 to 6.2 years. The maximal contribution to lost years of potential life was made by population groups 45-59 years old. Total losses from premature mortality from cervical cancer were 2682.5 man-years and 2411 man-years in 2013 in 2021. The number of years lost decreased by 271.5 man-years. The rate of lost years of potential life during this period increased from 0.5 to 3.7 years. The greatest contribution to lost years of potential life was made by population groups 60-64 and 40-49 years old. The calculation demonstrated that there are significant reserves for reducing population mortality from malignant neoplasms in most vulnerable age population groups that is important for organization of oncological care and planning of target prevention programs.
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Expectativa de Vida , Humanos , Feminino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Adulto , Expectativa de Vida/tendências , Quirguistão/epidemiologia , Masculino , Idoso , Neoplasias do Colo do Útero/epidemiologia , Neoplasias do Colo do Útero/mortalidade , Mortalidade Prematura/tendências , Neoplasias Uterinas/epidemiologiaRESUMO
BACKGROUND: This study is designed to explore the correlation between multiple healthy lifestyles within the framework of "lifestyle medicine", and the mortality risk of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). METHODS: The National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) database was employed. The analysis consisted of 5542 participants with baseline NAFLD and 5542 matched non-NAFLD participants from the database. Lifestyle information, including five low risk factors advocated by lifestyle medicine (healthy diet, vigorous physical activity, healthy sleep duration, avoiding smoking, and maintaining a non-depressed psychological status), was collected through a baseline questionnaire. Cox proportional hazards regression models and Kaplan-Meier survival curve were used to evaluate risk of mortality. In addition, subgroups were analyzed according to gender, age, body mass index and waist circumference. RESULTS: In total, 502 deaths (n = 181 deaths from cardiovascular disease (CVD)) were recorded among NAFLD participants after the median follow up duration of 6.5 years. In the multivariate-adjusted model, compared to participants with an unfavorable lifestyle (scoring 0-1), NAFLD participants with a favorable lifestyle (scoring 4-5) experienced a 56% reduction in all-cause mortality and a 66% reduction in CVD mortality. Maintaining an undepressed psychological state and adhering to vigorous exercise significantly reduced CVD mortality risk in NAFLD participants (HR, 0.64 [95% CI, 0.43-0.95]; HR, 0.54 [95% CI, 0.33-0.88]) while maintaining healthy sleep reduced premature mortality due to CVD by 31%. CONCLUSIONS: Healthy lifestyle, characterized by maintaining an undepressed mental state and healthy sleep, significantly mitigates the risk of all-cause, CVD, and premature mortality risk among NAFLD patients, with a particularly pronounced effect observed in female and obese subpopulations.
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Doenças Cardiovasculares , Mortalidade Prematura , Hepatopatia Gordurosa não Alcoólica , Humanos , Hepatopatia Gordurosa não Alcoólica/mortalidade , Hepatopatia Gordurosa não Alcoólica/psicologia , Feminino , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Doenças Cardiovasculares/mortalidade , Adulto , Inquéritos Nutricionais , Exercício Físico , Fatores de Risco , Modelos de Riscos Proporcionais , Estilo de Vida , Estilo de Vida Saudável , Índice de Massa CorporalRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Cancer is a leading cause of mortality worldwide. By 2040, over 30 million new cancers are predicted, with the greatest cancer burden in low-income countries. In 2015, the UN passed the Sustainable Development Goal 3.4 (SDG 3.4) to tackle the rising burden of non-communicable diseases, which calls for a reduction by a third in premature mortality from non-communicable diseases, including cancer, by 2030. However, there is a paucity of data on premature mortality rates by cancer type. In this study, we examine annual rates of change for cancer-specific premature mortality and classify whether countries are on track to reach SDG 3.4 targets. METHODS: This is a retrospective, cross-sectional, population-based study investigating premature mortality trends from 2000-19 using the WHO Global Health Estimates data. All cancers combined and thirteen individual cancers in 183 countries were examined by WHO region, World Bank income level, and sex. The risk of premature mortality was calculated for ages 30-69 years, independent of other competing causes of death, using standard life table methods. The primary objective was to compute average annual rate of change in premature mortality from 2000 to 2019. Secondary objectives assessed whether this annual rate of change would be sufficient to reach SDG 3.4. targets for premature mortality by 2030. FINDINGS: This study was conducted using data retrieved for the years 2000-19. Premature mortality rates decreased in 138 (75%) of 183 countries across all World Bank income levels and WHO regions, however only eight (4%) countries are likely to meet the SDG 3.4 targets for all cancers combined. Cancers where early detection strategies exist, such as breast and colorectal cancer, have higher declining premature mortality rates in high-income countries (breast cancer 48 [89%] of 54 and colorectal cancer 45 [83%]) than in low-income countries (seven [24%] of 29 and four [14%]). Cancers with primary prevention programmes, such as cervical cancer, have more countries with declining premature mortality rates (high-income countries 50 [93%] of 54 and low-income countries 26 [90%] of 29). Sex-related disparities in premature mortality rates vary across WHO regions, World Bank income groups, and by cancer type. INTERPRETATION: There is a greater reduction in premature mortality for all cancers combined and for individual cancer types in high-income countries compared with lower-middle-income and low-income countries. However, most countries will not reach the SDG 3.4 target. Cancers with early detection strategies in place, such as breast and colorectal cancers, are performing poorly in premature mortality compared with cancers with primary prevention measures, such as cervical cancer. Investments toward prevention, early detection, and treatment can potentially accelerate declines in premature mortality. FUNDING: WHO.
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Mortalidade Prematura , Neoplasias , Organização Mundial da Saúde , Humanos , Neoplasias/mortalidade , Estudos Retrospectivos , Estudos Transversais , Feminino , Mortalidade Prematura/tendências , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Adulto , Idoso , Saúde Global , Nações Unidas , Renda , Países em Desenvolvimento , Fatores SexuaisRESUMO
The healthy lifestyle index (HLI), defined as the unweighted sum of individual lifestyle components, was used to investigate the combined role of lifestyle factors on health-related outcomes. We introduced weighted outcome-specific versions of the HLI, where individual lifestyle components were weighted according to their associations with disease outcomes. Within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC), we examined the association between the standard and the outcome-specific HLIs and the risk of T2D, CVD, cancer, and all-cause premature mortality. Estimates of the hazard ratios (HRs), the Harrell's C-index and the population attributable fractions (PAFs) were compared. For T2D, the HR for 1-SD increase of the standard and T2D-specific HLI were 0.66 (95% CI: 0.64, 0.67) and 0.43 (0.42, 0.44), respectively, and the C-index were 0.63 (0.62, 0.64) and 0.72 (0.72, 0.73). Similar, yet less pronounced differences in HR and C-index were observed for standard and outcome-specific estimates for cancer, CVD and all-cause mortality. PAF estimates for mortality before age 80 were 57% (55%, 58%) and 33% (32%, 34%) for standard and mortality-specific HLI, respectively. The use of outcome-specific HLI could improve the assessment of the role of lifestyle factors on disease outcomes, thus enhancing the definition of public health recommendations.
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Doenças Cardiovasculares , Estilo de Vida Saudável , Neoplasias , Humanos , Masculino , Feminino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Neoplasias/mortalidade , Neoplasias/epidemiologia , Doenças Cardiovasculares/mortalidade , Doenças Cardiovasculares/epidemiologia , Estudos Prospectivos , Idoso , Adulto , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2/mortalidade , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2/epidemiologia , Fatores de Risco , Modelos de Riscos Proporcionais , Europa (Continente)/epidemiologia , Mortalidade Prematura , Estilo de VidaRESUMO
Introduction: Premature death is a global health indicator, significantly impacted by obesity, especially in young and middle-aged population. Both body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) assess obesity, with WC specifically indicating central obesity and showing a stronger relationship with mortality. However, despite known associations between BMI and premature death, as well as the well-recognized correlation between WC and adverse health outcomes, the specific relationship between WC and premature death remains unclear. Therefore, focusing on young and middle-aged individuals, this study aimed to reliably estimate independent and combined associations between WC, BMI and premature death, thereby providing causal evidence to support strategies for obesity management. Methods: This study involved 49,217 subjects aged 18-50 years in the United States from 1999 to 2018 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). Independent and combined associations between WC and BMI with premature death across sex and age stratum were examined by Cox regression. Survey weighting and inverse probability weighting (IPW) were further considered to control selection and confounding bias. Robustness assessment has been conducted on both NHANES and China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) data. Results: A linear and positive relationship between WC and all-cause premature death was found in both males and females, with adjusted HRs of 1.019 (95%CI = 1.004-1.034) and 1.065 (95%CI = 1.039-1.091), respectively. Nonlinear relationships were found with respect to BMI and all-cause premature death. For females aged 36-50 with a BMI below 28.6 kg/m2, the risk of premature death decreased as BMI increased, indicated by adjusted HRs of 0.856 (95%CI = 0.790-0.927). Joint analysis showed among people living with obesity, a larger WC increased premature death risk (HR = 1.924, 95%CI = 1.444-2.564). Discussion: WC and BMI exhibited prominent associations with premature death in young and middle-aged population. Maintaining an appropriate WC and BMI bears significant implications for preventing premature death.
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Índice de Massa Corporal , Mortalidade Prematura , Inquéritos Nutricionais , Circunferência da Cintura , Humanos , Masculino , Feminino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Adulto , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Adolescente , Adulto Jovem , China/epidemiologia , Obesidade , Fatores de Risco , Estudos LongitudinaisRESUMO
Racialized economic segregation, a key metric that simultaneously accounts for spatial, social and income polarization in communities, has been linked to adverse health outcomes, including morbidity and mortality. Due to the spatial nature of this metric, the association between health outcomes and racialized economic segregation could also change with space. Most studies assessing the relationship between racialized economic segregation and health outcomes have always treated racialized economic segregation as a fixed effect and ignored the spatial nature of it. This paper proposes a two-stage Bayesian statistical framework that provides a broad, flexible approach to studying the spatially varying association between premature mortality and racialized economic segregation while accounting for neighborhood-level latent health factors across US counties. The two-stage framework reduces the dimensionality of spatially correlated data and highlights the importance of accounting for spatial autocorrelation in racialized economic segregation measures, in health equity focused settings.
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Teorema de Bayes , Mortalidade Prematura , Segregação Social , Humanos , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Análise Espacial , Masculino , Feminino , Características de Residência/estatística & dados numéricosRESUMO
OBJECTIVE: To compare how different imputation methods affect the estimates and performance of a prediction model for premature mortality. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: Sex-specific Weibull accelerated failure time survival models were run on four separate datasets using complete case, mode, single and multiple imputation to impute missing values. Six performance measures were compared to access predictive accuracy (Nagelkerke R2, integrated brier score), discrimination (Harrell's c-index, discrimination slope) and calibration (calibration in the large, calibration slope). RESULTS: The highest proportion of missingness for a single variable was 10.86% for the female model and 8.24% for the male model. Comparing the performance measures for complete case, mode, single and multiple imputation: the Nagelkerke R2 values for the female model was 0.1084, 0.1116, 0.1120 and 0.111-0.1120 with the male model exhibited similar variation of 0.1050, 0.1078, 0.1078 and 0.1078-0.1081. Harrell's c-index also demonstrated small variation with values of 0.8666, 0.8719, 0.8719 and 0.8711-0.8719 for the female model and 0.8549, 0.8548, 0.8550 and 0.8550-0.8553 for the male model. CONCLUSION: In the scenarios examined in this study, mode imputation performed well when using a population health survey compared to single and multiple imputation when predictive performance measures is the main model goal. To generate unbiased hazard ratios, multiple imputation methods were superior. This study shows the need to consider the best imputation approach for a predictive model development given the conditions of missing data and the goals of the analysis.
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Mortalidade Prematura , Humanos , Masculino , Feminino , Modelos Estatísticos , Medição de Risco/métodos , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Interpretação Estatística de Dados , AdultoRESUMO
The 2022 wildfires in New Mexico, United States, were unparalleled compared to past wildfires in the state in both their scale and intensity, resulting in poor air quality and a catastrophic loss of habitat and livelihood. Among all wildfires in New Mexico in 2022, six wildfires were selected for our study based on the size of the burn area and their proximity to populated areas. These fires accounted for approximately 90 % of the total burn area in New Mexico in 2022. We used a regional chemical transport model and data-fusion technique to quantify the contribution of these six wildfires (April 6 to August 22) on particulate matter (PM2.5: diameter ≤ 2.5 µm) and ozone (O3) concentrations, as well as the associated health impacts from short-term exposure. We estimated that these six wildfires emitted 152 thousand tons of PM2.5 and 287 thousand tons of volatile organic compounds to the atmosphere. We estimated that the average daily wildfire smoke PM2.5 across New Mexico was 0.3 µg/m3, though 1 h maximum exceeded 120 µg/m3 near Santa Fe. Average wildfire smoke maximum daily average 8-h O3 (MDA8-O3) contribution was 0.2 ppb during the study period over New Mexico. However, over the state 1 h maximum smoke O3 exceeded 60 ppb in some locations near Santa Fe. Estimated all-cause excess mortality attributable to short term exposure to wildfire PM2.5 and MDA8-O3 from these six wildfires were 18 (95 % Confidence Interval (CI), 15-21) and 4 (95 % CI: 3-6) deaths. Additionally, we estimate that wildfire PM2.5 was responsible for 171 (95 %: 124-217) excess cases of asthma emergency department visits. Our findings underscore the impact of wildfires on air quality and human health risks, which are anticipated to intensify with global warming, even as local anthropogenic emissions decline.
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Poluição do Ar , Incêndios Florestais , Poluição do Ar/estatística & dados numéricos , New Mexico , Nível de Saúde , Incêndios Florestais/estatística & dados numéricos , Material Particulado/análise , Monitoramento Ambiental , Exposição por Inalação/estatística & dados numéricos , Modelos Estatísticos , Humanos , Mortalidade PrematuraRESUMO
AIMS: The direct cost of diabetes to the UK health system was estimated at around £10 billion in 2012. This analysis updates that estimate using more recent and accurate data sources. METHODS: A pragmatic review of relevant data sources for UK nations was conducted, including population-level data sets and published literature, to generate estimates of costs separately for Type 1, Type 2 and gestational diabetes. A comprehensive cost framework, developed in collaboration with experts, was used to create a population-based cost of illness model. The key driver of the analysis was prevalence of diabetes and its complications. Estimates were made of the excess costs of diagnosis, treatment and diabetes-related complications compared with the general UK population. Estimates of the indirect costs of diabetes focused on productivity losses due to absenteeism and premature mortality. RESULTS: The direct costs of diabetes in 2021/22 for the UK were estimated at £10.7 billion, of which just over 40% related to diagnosis and treatment, with the rest relating to the excess costs of complications. Indirect costs were estimated at £3.3 billion. CONCLUSIONS: Diabetes remains a considerable cost burden in the UK, and the majority of those costs are still spent on potentially preventable complications. Although rates of some complications are reducing, prevalence continues to increase and effective approaches to primary and secondary prevention continue to be needed. Improvements in data capture, data quality and reporting, and further research on the human and financial implications of increasing incidence of Type 2 diabetes in younger people are recommended.
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Efeitos Psicossociais da Doença , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 1 , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2 , Custos de Cuidados de Saúde , Humanos , Reino Unido/epidemiologia , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2/economia , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2/epidemiologia , Feminino , Custos de Cuidados de Saúde/estatística & dados numéricos , Gravidez , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 1/economia , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 1/epidemiologia , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 1/terapia , Prevalência , Diabetes Gestacional/economia , Diabetes Gestacional/epidemiologia , Diabetes Gestacional/terapia , Complicações do Diabetes/economia , Complicações do Diabetes/epidemiologia , Modelos Econômicos , Absenteísmo , Mortalidade PrematuraRESUMO
Smoke from wildfires poses a substantial threat to health in communities near and far. To mitigate the extent and potential damage of wildfires, prescribed burning techniques are commonly employed as land management tools; however, they introduce their own smoke-related risks. This study investigates the impact of prescribed fires on daily average PM2.5 and maximum daily 8-h averaged O3 (MDA8-O3) concentrations and estimates premature deaths associated with short-term exposure to prescribed fire PM2.5 and MDA8-O3 in Georgia and surrounding areas of the Southeastern US from 2015 to 2020. Our findings indicate that over the study domain, prescribed fire contributes to average daily PM2.5 by 0.94 ± 1.45 µg/m3 (mean ± standard deviation), accounting for 14.0% of year-round ambient PM2.5. Higher average daily contributions were predicted during the extensive burning season (January-April): 1.43 ± 1.97 µg/m3 (20.0% of ambient PM2.5). Additionally, prescribed burning is also responsible for an annual average increase of 0.36 ± 0.61 ppb in MDA8-O3 (approximately 0.8% of ambient MDA8-O3) and 1.3% (0.62 ± 0.88 ppb) during the extensive burning season. We estimate that short-term exposure to prescribed fire PM2.5 and MDA8-O3 could have caused 2665 (95% confidence interval (CI): 2249-3080) and 233 (95% CI: 148-317) excess deaths, respectively. These results suggest that smoke from prescribed burns increases the mortality. However, refraining from such burns may escalate the risk of wildfires; therefore, the trade-offs between the health impacts of wildfires and prescribed fires, including morbidity, need to be taken into consideration in future studies.
Assuntos
Poluentes Atmosféricos , Poluição do Ar , Incêndios , Material Particulado , Georgia , Humanos , Mortalidade Prematura , Incêndios Florestais , FumaçaRESUMO
BACKGROUND: The incidence of premature myocardial infarction (PMI) in women (<65 years and men <55 years) is increasing. We investigated proportionate mortality trends in PMI stratified by sex, race, and ethnicity. METHODS AND RESULTS: CDC WONDER (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research) was queried to identify PMI deaths within the United States between 1999 and 2020, and trends in proportionate mortality of PMI were calculated using the Joinpoint regression analysis. We identified 3 017 826 acute myocardial infarction deaths, with 373 317 PMI deaths corresponding to proportionate mortality of 12.5% (men 12%, women 14%). On trend analysis, proportionate mortality of PMI increased from 10.5% in 1999 to 13.2% in 2020 (average annual percent change of 1.0 [0.8-1.2, P <0.01]) with a significant increase in women from 10% in 1999 to 17% in 2020 (average annual percent change of 2.4 [1.8-3.0, P <0.01]) and no significant change in men, 11% in 1999 to 10% in 2020 (average annual percent change of -0.2 [-0.7 to 0.3, P=0.4]). There was a significant increase in proportionate mortality in both Black and White populations, with no difference among American Indian/Alaska Native, Asian/Pacific Islander, or Hispanic people. American Indian/Alaska Natives had the highest PMI mortality with no significant change over time. CONCLUSIONS: Over the last 2 decades, there has been a significant increase in the proportionate mortality of PMI in women and the Black population, with persistently high PMI in American Indian/Alaska Natives, despite an overall downtrend in acute myocardial infarction-related mortality. Further research to determine the underlying cause of these differences in PMI mortality is required to improve the outcomes after acute myocardial infarction in these populations.
Assuntos
Disparidades nos Níveis de Saúde , Infarto do Miocárdio , Adulto , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Negro ou Afro-Americano/estatística & dados numéricos , Hispânico ou Latino/estatística & dados numéricos , Incidência , Mortalidade Prematura/tendências , Mortalidade Prematura/etnologia , Infarto do Miocárdio/mortalidade , Infarto do Miocárdio/etnologia , Fatores de Risco , Distribuição por Sexo , Fatores Sexuais , Fatores de Tempo , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Brancos/estatística & dados numéricos , Nativo Asiático-Americano do Havaí e das Ilhas do Pacífico/estatística & dados numéricos , Indígena Americano ou Nativo do Alasca/estatística & dados numéricosRESUMO
Ground-level ozone (O3) is a harmful air pollutant formed in the atmosphere by the interaction between sunlight and precursor gases. Exposure to current O3 levels in Europe is a major source of premature mortality from air pollution. However, mitigation actions have been mainly designed and implemented at the national and regional scales, lacking a comprehensive assessment of the geographic sources of O3 pollution and its associated health impacts. Here we quantify both national and imported contributions to O3 and their related mortality burden across 813 contiguous regions in 35 European countries, representing about 530 million people. Imported O3 contributed to 88.3% of all O3-attributable deaths (intercountry range 83-100%). The greatest share of imported O3 had its origins outside the study domain (that is, hemispheric sources), which was responsible for 56.7% of total O3-attributable mortality (range 42.5-87.2%). It was concluded that achieving the air-quality guidelines set out by the World Health Organization and avoiding the health impacts of O3 require not only the implementation of national or coordinated pan-European actions but also global strategies.
Assuntos
Poluentes Atmosféricos , Poluição do Ar , Ozônio , Ozônio/efeitos adversos , Ozônio/análise , Europa (Continente)/epidemiologia , Humanos , Poluição do Ar/efeitos adversos , Poluição do Ar/análise , Poluentes Atmosféricos/efeitos adversos , Poluentes Atmosféricos/análise , Exposição Ambiental/efeitos adversos , Mortalidade Prematura/tendências , Mortalidade/tendênciasRESUMO
Importance: There is a need for representative research on serious adverse outcomes following discharge from psychiatric hospitalization. Objective: To compare rates of premature death, suicide, and nonlethal intentional self-harm after psychiatric discharge with rates in the general population and investigate associations of these outcomes with relevant variables associated with the index psychiatric hospitalization. Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective cohort study included all residents from Catalonia, Spain (7.6 million population), who had psychiatric hospitalizations between January 1, 2014, and December 31, 2018, and were older than 10 years at the index (first) hospitalization. Follow-up was until December 31, 2019. Statistical analysis was performed from December 1, 2022, through April 11, 2024. Exposures: Socioeconomic status, psychiatric diagnoses, duration of index hospitalization, and number of previous psychiatric hospitalizations. Main Outcomes and Measures: Postdischarge premature death (ie, all-cause death before age 70 years) and suicide (International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision [ICD-10] code range X60-X84), identified using mortality data, and postdischarge nonlethal intentional self-harm, identified using electronic health record and self-harm case register data. Standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) compared rates of premature death and suicide between the cohort and the general population. Fully adjusted, multivariable, cause-specific Cox proportional hazards regression models for the 3 outcomes were fitted. Results: A total of 49â¯108 patients discharged from psychiatric hospitalization were included (25â¯833 males [52.6%]; mean [SD] age at discharge, 44.2 [18.2] years). During follow-up, 2260 patients (4.6%) died prematurely, 437 (0.9%) died by suicide, and 4752 (9.7%) had an episode of nonlethal intentional self-harm. The overall SMR for premature death was 7.5 (95% CI, 7.2-7.9). For suicide, SMR was 32.9 (95% CI, 29.9-36.0) overall and was especially high among females (47.6 [95% CI, 40.2-54.9]). In fully adjusted sex-stratified hazard models, postdischarge premature death was associated with cognitive disorders (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR], 2.89 [95% CI, 2.24-3.74] for females; 2.59 [95% CI, 2.17-3.08] for males) and alcohol-related disorders (AHR, 1.41 [95% CI, 1.18-1.70] for females; 1.22 [95% CI, 1.09-1.37] for males). Postdischarge suicide was associated with postdischarge intentional self-harm (AHR, 2.83 [95% CI, 1.97-4.05] for females; 3.29 [95% CI, 2.47-4.40] for males), with depressive disorders (AHR, 2.13 [95% CI, 1.52-2.97]) and adjustment disorders (AHR, 1.94 [95% CI, 1.32-2.83]) among males, and with bipolar disorder among females (AHR, 1.94 [95% CI, 1.21-3.09]). Postdischarge intentional self-harm was associated with index admissions for intentional self-harm (AHR, 1.95 [95% CI, 1.73-2.21] for females; 2.62 [95% CI, 2.20-3.13] for males) as well as for adjustment disorders (AHR, 1.48 [95% CI, 1.33-1.65] for females; 1.99 [95% CI, 1.74-2.27] for males), anxiety disorders (AHR, 1.24 [95% CI, 1.10-1.39] for females; 1.36 [95% CI, 1.18-1.58] for males), depressive disorders (AHR, 1.54 [95% CI, 1.40-1.69] for females; 1.80 [95% CI, 1.58-2.04] for males), and personality disorders (AHR, 1.59 [95% CI, 1.46-1.73] for females; 1.43 [95% CI, 1.28-1.60] for males). Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study of patients discharged from psychiatric hospitalization, risk for premature death and suicide was significantly higher compared with the general population, suggesting individuals discharged from psychiatric inpatient care are a vulnerable population for premature death and suicidal behavior.