Development and validation of a preoperative CT­based radiomics nomogram to differentiate tuberculosis granulomas from lung adenocarcinomas: an external validation study.

BACKGROUND: An accurate and non-invasive approach is urgently needed to distinguish tuberculosis granulomas from lung adenocarcinomas. This study aimed to develop and validate a nomogram based on contrast enhanced-compute tomography (CE-CT) to preoperatively differentiate tuberculosis granuloma from lung adenocarcinoma appearing as solitary pulmonary solid nodules (SPSN). METHODS: This retrospective study analyzed 143 patients with lung adenocarcinoma (mean age: 62.4 ± 6.5 years; 54.5% female) and 137 patients with tuberculosis granulomas (mean age: 54.7 ± 8.2 years; 29.2% female) from two centers between March 2015 and June 2020. The training and internal validation cohorts included 161 and 69 patients (7:3 ratio) from center No.1, respectively. The external testing cohort included 50 patients from center No.2. Clinical factors and conventional radiological characteristics were analyzed to build independent predictors. Radiomics features were extracted from each CT-volume of interest (VOI). Feature selection was performed using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis, as well as the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) method. A clinical model was constructed with clinical factors and radiological findings. Individualized radiomics nomograms incorporating clinical data and radiomics signature were established to validate the clinical usefulness. The diagnostic performance was assessed using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). RESULTS: One clinical factor (CA125), one radiological characteristic (enhanced-CT value) and nine radiomics features were found to be independent predictors, which were used to establish the radiomics nomogram. The nomogram demonstrated better diagnostic efficacy than any single model, with respective AUC, accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity of 0.903, 0.857, 0.901, and 0.807 in the training cohort; 0.933, 0.884, 0.893, and 0.892 in the internal validation cohort; 0.914, 0.800, 0.937, and 0.735 in the external test cohort. The calibration curve showed a good agreement between prediction probability and actual clinical findings. CONCLUSION: The nomogram incorporating clinical factors, radiological characteristics and radiomics signature provides additional value in distinguishing tuberculosis granuloma from lung adenocarcinoma in patients with a SPSN, potentially serving as a robust diagnostic strategy in clinical practice.

Risk factor analysis and nomogram for predicting poor symptom control in smoking asthmatics.

BACKGROUND: Smoking induces and modifies the airway immune response, accelerating the decline of asthmatics' lung function and severely affecting asthma symptoms' control level. To assess the prognosis of asthmatics who smoke and to provide reasonable recommendations for treatment, we constructed a nomogram prediction model. METHODS: General and clinical data were collected from April to September 2021 from smoking asthmatics aged ≥14 years attending the People's Hospital of Zhengzhou University. Patients were followed up regularly by telephone or outpatient visits, and their medication and follow-up visits were recorded during the 6-months follow-up visit, as well as their asthma control levels after 6 months (asthma control questionnaire-5, ACQ-5). The study employed R4.2.2 software to conduct univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses to identify independent risk factors for 'poorly controlled asthma' (ACQ>0.75) as the outcome variable. Subsequently, a nomogram prediction model was constructed. Internal validation was used to test the reproducibility of the model. The model efficacy was evaluated using the consistency index (C-index), receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curve, and decision curve. RESULTS: Invitations were sent to 231 asthmatics who smoked. A total of 202 participants responded, resulting in a final total of 190 participants included in the model development. The nomogram established five independent risk factors (P<0.05): FEV1%pred, smoking index (100), comorbidities situations, medication regimen, and good or poor medication adherence. The area under curve (AUC) of the modeling set was 0.824(95%CI 0.765-0.884), suggesting that the nomogram has a high ability to distinguish poor asthma control in smoking asthmatics after 6 months. The calibration curve showed a C-index of 0.824 for the modeling set and a C-index of 0.792 for the self-validation set formed by 1000 bootstrap sampling, which means that the prediction probability of the model was consistent with reality. Decision curve analysis (DCA) of the nomogram revealed that the net benefit was higher when the risk threshold probability for poor asthma control was 4.5 - 93.9%. CONCLUSIONS: FEV1%pred, smoking index (100), comorbidities situations, medication regimen, and medication adherence were identified as independent risk factors for poor asthma control after 6 months in smoking asthmatics. The nomogram established based on these findings can effectively predict relevant risk and provide clinicians with a reference to identify the poorly controlled population with smoking asthma as early as possible, and to select a better therapeutic regimen. Meanwhile, it can effectively improve the medication adherence and the degree of attention to complications in smoking asthma patients.

Exploration and prognostic analysis of two types of high-risk ovarian cancers: clear cell vs. serous carcinoma: a population-based study.

BACKGROUND: Ovarian clear cell carcinoma (OCCC) is a rare pathological histotype in ovarian cancer, while the survival rate of advanced OCCC (Stage III-IV) is substantially lower than that of the advanced serous ovarian cancer (OSC), which is the most common histotype. The goal of this study was to identify high-risk OCCC by comparing OSC and OCCC, with investigating potential risk and prognosis markers. METHODS: Patients diagnosed with ovarian cancer from 2009 to 2018 were identified from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program. Logistic and Cox regression models were used to identify risk and prognostic factors in high-risk OCCC patients. Cancer-specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS) were assessed using Kaplan-Meier curves. Furthermore, Cox analysis was employed to build a nomogram model. The performance evaluation results were displayed using the C-index, calibration plots, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Immunohistochemically approach was used to identify the expression of the novel target (GPC3). RESULTS: In the Cox analysis for advanced OCCC, age (45-65 years), tumor numbers (total number of in situ/malignant tumors for patient), T3-stage, bilateral tumors, and liver metastases could be defined as prognostic variables. Nomogram showed good predictive power and clinical practicality. Compared with OSC, liver metastases had a stronger impact on the prognosis of patients with OCCC. T3-stage, positive distant lymph nodes metastases, and lung metastases were risk factors for developing liver metastases. Chemotherapy was an independent prognostic factor for patient with advanced OCCC, but had no effect on CSS in patients with liver metastases (p = 0.0656), while surgery was significantly related with better CSS in these patients (p < 0.0001) (p = 0.0041). GPC3 expression was detected in all tissue sections, and GPC3 staining was predominantly found in the cytoplasm and membranes. CONCLUSION: Advanced OCCC and OCCC with liver metastases are two types of high-risk OCCC. The constructed nomogram exhibited a satisfactory survival prediction for patients with advanced OCCC. GPC3 immunohistochemistry is expected to accumulate preclinical evidence to support the inclusion of GPC3 in OCCC targeted therapy.

A nomogram predicting pneumonia after cardiac surgery: a retrospective modeling study.

BACKGROUND: Postoperative pneumonia (POP) is the most prevalent of all nosocomial infections in patients who underwent cardiac surgery. The aim of this study was to identify independent risk factors for pneumonia after cardiac surgery, from which we constructed a nomogram for prediction. METHODS: The clinical data of patients admitted to the Department of Cardiothoracic Surgery of Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital from October 2020 to September 2021 who underwent cardiac surgery were retrospectively analyzed, and the patients were divided into two groups according to whether they had POP: POP group (n=105) and non-POP group (n=1083). Preoperative, intraoperative, and postoperative indicators were collected and analyzed. Logistic regression was used to identify independent risk factors for POP in patients who underwent cardiac surgery. We constructed a nomogram based on these independent risk factors. Model discrimination was assessed via area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), and calibration was assessed via calibration plot. RESULTS: A total of 105 events occurred in the 1188 cases. Age (>55 years) (OR: 1.83, P=0.0225), preoperative malnutrition (OR: 3.71, P<0.0001), diabetes mellitus(OR: 2.33, P=0.0036), CPB time (Cardiopulmonary Bypass Time) > 135 min (OR: 2.80, P<0.0001), moderate to severe ARDS (Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome )(OR: 1.79, P=0.0148), use of ECMO or IABP or CRRT (ECMO: Extra Corporeal Membrane Oxygenation; IABP: Intra-Aortic Balloon Pump; CRRT: Continuous Renal Replacement Therapy )(OR: 2.60, P=0.0057) and MV( Mechanical Ventilation )> 20 hours (OR: 3.11, P<0.0001) were independent risk factors for POP. Based on those independent risk factors, we constructed a simple nomogram with an AUC of 0.82. Calibration plots showed good agreement between predicted probabilities and actual probabilities. CONCLUSION: We constructed a facile nomogram for predicting pneumonia after cardiac surgery with good discrimination and calibration. The model has excellent clinical applicability and can be used to identify and adjust modifiable risk factors to reduce the incidence of POP as well as patient mortality.

Nomogram using intratumoral and peritumoral radiomics for the preoperative prediction of visceral pleural invasion in clinical stage IA lung adenocarcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Accurate prediction of visceral pleural invasion (VPI) in lung adenocarcinoma before operation can provide guidance and help for surgical operation and postoperative treatment. We investigate the value of intratumoral and peritumoral radiomics nomograms for preoperatively predicting the status of VPI in patients diagnosed with clinical stage IA lung adenocarcinoma. METHODS: A total of 404 patients from our hospital were randomly assigned to a training set (n = 283) and an internal validation set (n = 121) using a 7:3 ratio, while 81 patients from two other hospitals constituted the external validation set. We extracted 1218 CT-based radiomics features from the gross tumor volume (GTV) as well as the gross peritumoral tumor volume (GPTV5, 10, 15), respectively, and constructed radiomic models. Additionally, we developed a nomogram based on relevant CT features and the radscore derived from the optimal radiomics model. RESULTS: The GPTV10 radiomics model exhibited superior predictive performance compared to GTV, GPTV5, and GPTV15, with area under the curve (AUC) values of 0.855, 0.842, and 0.842 in the three respective sets. In the clinical model, the solid component size, pleural indentation, solid attachment, and vascular convergence sign were identified as independent risk factors among the CT features. The predictive performance of the nomogram, which incorporated relevant CT features and the GPTV10-radscore, outperformed both the radiomics model and clinical model alone, with AUC values of 0.894, 0.828, and 0.876 in the three respective sets. CONCLUSIONS: The nomogram, integrating radiomics features and CT morphological features, exhibits good performance in predicting VPI status in lung adenocarcinoma.

Development and validation of a prognostic model for assessing long COVID risk following Omicron wave-a large population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Long coronavirus disease (COVID) after COVID-19 infection is continuously threatening the health of people all over the world. Early prediction of the risk of Long COVID in hospitalized patients will help clinical management of COVID-19, but there is still no reliable and effective prediction model. METHODS: A total of 1905 hospitalized patients with COVID-19 infection were included in this study, and their Long COVID status was followed up 4-8 weeks after discharge. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analysis were used to determine the risk factors for Long COVID. Patients were randomly divided into a training cohort (70%) and a validation cohort (30%), and factors for constructing the model were screened using Lasso regression in the training cohort. Visualize the Long COVID risk prediction model using nomogram. Evaluate the performance of the model in the training and validation cohort using the area under the curve (AUC), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA). RESULTS: A total of 657 patients (34.5%) reported that they had symptoms of long COVID. The most common symptoms were fatigue or muscle weakness (16.8%), followed by sleep difficulties (11.1%) and cough (9.5%). The risk prediction nomogram of age, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, vaccination status, procalcitonin, leukocytes, lymphocytes, interleukin-6 and D-dimer were included for early identification of high-risk patients with Long COVID. AUCs of the model in the training cohort and validation cohort are 0.762 and 0.713, respectively, demonstrating relatively high discrimination of the model. The calibration curve further substantiated the proximity of the nomogram's predicted outcomes to the ideal curve, the consistency between the predicted outcomes and the actual outcomes, and the potential benefits for all patients as indicated by DCA. This observation was further validated in the validation cohort. CONCLUSIONS: We established a nomogram model to predict the long COVID risk of hospitalized patients with COVID-19, and proved its relatively good predictive performance. This model is helpful for the clinical management of long COVID.

Constructing and validating a predictive nomogram for osteoporosis risk among Chinese single-center male population using the systemic immune-inflammation index.

Osteoporosis (OP) is a bone metabolism disease that is associated with inflammatory pathological mechanism. Nonetheless, rare studies have investigated the diagnostic effectiveness of immune-inflammation index in the male population. Therefore, it is interesting to achieve early diagnosis of OP in male population based on the inflammatory makers from blood routine examination. We developed a prediction model based on a training dataset of 826 Chinese male patients through a retrospective study, and the data was collected from January 2022 to May 2023. All participants underwent the dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXEA) and blood routine examination. Inflammatory markers such as systemic immune-inflammation index (SII) and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) was calculated and recorded. We utilized the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression model to optimize feature selection. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was applied to construct a predicting model incorporating the feature selected in the LASSO model. This predictive model was displayed as a nomogram. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, C-index, calibration curve, and clinical decision curve analysis (DCA) to evaluate model performance. Internal validation was test by the bootstrapping method. This study was approved by the Ethic Committee of the First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou University of Traditional Chinese Medicine (Ethic No. JY2023012) and conducted in accordance with the relevant guidelines and regulations. The predictive factors included in the prediction model were age, BMI, cardiovascular diseases, cerebrovascular diseases, neuropathy, thyroid diseases, fracture history, SII, PLR, C-reactive protein (CRP). The model displayed well discrimination with a C-index of 0.822 (95% confidence interval: 0.798-0.846) and good calibration. Internal validation showed a high C-index value of 0.805. Decision curve analysis (DCA) showed that when the threshold probability was between 3 and 76%, the nomogram had a good clinical value. This nomogram can effectively predict the incidence of OP in male population based on SII and PLR, which would help clinicians rapidly and conveniently diagnose OP with men in the future.

[Construction and evaluation of weight retention nomogram prediction model for women 1 year after delivery].

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the influencing factors of body weight retention in woman at 1 year postpartum, and to construct and evaluate a nomogram prediction model for postpartum 1-year weight retention. METHODS: From September 2010 to February 2011, 468 pregnant women in the third trimester were recruited from Yuexiu District and Baiyun District Maternal and Child Health Hospital in Guangzhou, and followed up to 1 year postpartum. The basic demographic information of pregnant women was collected by self-made questionnaire. Dietary intake in the third trimester was investigated by 3-day 24-hour dietary review. The weight of women before delivery and one year after delivery were measured. According to whether the weight retention at 1 year postpartum is greater than 0 kg, the study subjects were divided into the 1-year postpartum weight retention group and weight recovery group. Logistic regression analysis were used to screen the influencing factors of weight retention at 1 year postpartum. R 4.2.3 software was used to construct the nomogram prediction model. The subject working characteristic curve, calibration curve, Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test and clinical decision curve were used to evaluate the model's differentiation, accuracy and clinical applicability. RESULTS: Among 329 subjects in the model training set, the 1-year postpartum weight retention was 68.09%, and the median and quartile levels of retained body weight were 5.0(3.0, 10.0)kg. After Logistic analysis, a nomogram prediction model was constructed based on five factors: pre-pregnancy body mass index(BMI), pregnancy weight gain, parity, gravitity, 0-6 months postpartum feeding pattern. The model had good discrimination(AUC_(training)=0.778, AUC_(testing)=0.767) and accuracy(Hosmer-Lemeshow test: P_(training)=0.946, P_(testing)=0.891). CONCLUSION: The 1-year postnatal weight retention nomogram model based on women's pre-pregnancy BMI, pregnancy weight gain, parity, gravitity, 0-6 months postpartum feeding pattern has good differentiation, accuracy and clinical applicability.

A novel higher performance nomogram based on explainable machine learning for predicting mortality risk in stroke patients within 30 days based on clinical features on the first day ICU admission.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to develop a higher performance nomogram based on explainable machine learning methods, and to predict the risk of death of stroke patients within 30 days based on clinical characteristics on the first day of intensive care units (ICU) admission. METHODS: Data relating to stroke patients were extracted from the Medical Information Marketplace of the Intensive Care (MIMIC) IV and III database. The LightGBM machine learning approach together with Shapely additive explanations (termed as explain machine learning, EML) was used to select clinical features and define cut-off points for the selected features. These selected features and cut-off points were then evaluated using the Cox proportional hazards regression model and Kaplan-Meier survival curves. Finally, logistic regression-based nomograms for predicting 30-day mortality of stroke patients were constructed using original variables and variables dichotomized by cut-off points, respectively. The performance of two nomograms were evaluated in overall and individual dimension. RESULTS: A total of 2982 stroke patients and 64 clinical features were included, and the 30-day mortality rate was 23.6% in the MIMIC-IV datasets. 10 variables ("sofa (sepsis-related organ failure assessment)", "minimum glucose", "maximum sodium", "age", "mean spo2 (blood oxygen saturation)", "maximum temperature", "maximum heart rate", "minimum bun (blood urea nitrogen)", "minimum wbc (white blood cells)" and "charlson comorbidity index") and respective cut-off points were defined from the EML. In the Cox proportional hazards regression model (Cox regression) and Kaplan-Meier survival curves, after grouping stroke patients according to the cut-off point of each variable, patients belonging to the high-risk subgroup were associated with higher 30-day mortality than those in the low-risk subgroup. The evaluation of nomograms found that the EML-based nomogram not only outperformed the conventional nomogram in NIR (net reclassification index), brier score and clinical net benefits in overall dimension, but also significant improved in individual dimension especially for low "maximum temperature" patients. CONCLUSIONS: The 10 selected first-day ICU admission clinical features require greater attention for stroke patients. And the nomogram based on explainable machine learning will have greater clinical application.

Multiparameter MRI-based radiomics nomogram for preoperative prediction of brain invasion in atypical meningioma:a multicentre study.

OBJECTIVE: To develop a nomogram based on tumor and peritumoral edema (PE) radiomics features extracted from preoperative multiparameter MRI for predicting brain invasion (BI) in atypical meningioma (AM). METHODS: In this retrospective study, according to the 2021 WHO classification criteria, a total of 469 patients with pathologically confirmed AM from three medical centres were enrolled and divided into training (n = 273), internal validation (n = 117) and external validation (n = 79) cohorts. BI was diagnosed based on the histopathological examination. Preoperative contrast-enhanced T1-weighted MR images (T1C) and T2-weighted MR images (T2) for extracting meningioma features and T2-fluid attenuated inversion recovery (FLAIR) sequences for extracting meningioma and PE features were obtained. The multiple logistic regression was applied to develop separate multiparameter radiomics models for comparison. A nomogram was developed by combining radiomics features and clinical risk factors, and the clinical usefulness of the nomogram was verified using decision curve analysis. RESULTS: Among the clinical factors, PE volume and PE/tumor volume ratio are the risk of BI in AM. The combined nomogram based on multiparameter MRI radiomics features of meningioma and PE and clinical indicators achieved the best performance in predicting BI in AM, with area under the curve values of 0.862 (95% CI, 0.819-0.905) in the training cohort, 0.834 (95% CI, 0.780-0.908) in the internal validation cohort and 0.867 (95% CI, 0.785-0.950) in the external validation cohort, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The nomogram based on tumor and PE radiomics features extracted from preoperative multiparameter MRI and clinical factors can predict the risk of BI in patients with AM.

Significance of metastatic lymph nodes ratio in overall survival for patients with resected nonsmall cell lung cancer: a retrospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: The tumor, node and metastasis stage is widely applied to classify lung cancer and is the foundation of clinical decisions. However, increasing studies have pointed out that this staging system is not precise enough for the N status. In this study, we aim to build a convenient survival prediction model that incorporates the current items of lymph node status. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study and collected the data from resectable nonsmall cell lung cancer (NSCLC) (IA-IIIB) patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database (2006-2015). The x-tile program was applied to calculate the optimal threshold of metastatic lymph node ratio (MLNR). Then, independent prognostic factors were determined by multivariable Cox regression analysis and enrolled to build a nomogram model. The calibration curve as well as the Concordance Index (C-index) were selected to evaluate the nomogram. Finally, patients were grouped based on their specified risk points and divided into three risk levels. The prognostic value of MLNR and examined lymph node numbers (ELNs) were presented in subgroups. RESULTS TOTALLY,: 40853 NSCLC patients after surgery were finally enrolled and analyzed. Age, metastatic lymph node ratio, histology type, adjuvant treatment and American Joint Committee on Cancer 8th T stage were deemed as independent prognostic parameters after multivariable Cox regression analysis. A nomogram was built using those variables, and its efficiency in predicting patients' survival was better than the conventional American Joint Committee on Cancer stage system after evaluation. Our new model has a significantly higher concordance Index (C-index) (training set, 0.683 v 0.641, respectively; P < 0.01; testing set, 0.676 v 0.638, respectively; P < 0.05). Similarly, the calibration curve shows the nomogram was in better accordance with the actual observations in both cohorts. Then, after risk stratification, we found that MLNR is more reliable than ELNs in predicting overall survival. CONCLUSION: We developed a nomogram model for NSCLC patients after surgery. This novel and useful tool outperforms the widely used tumor, node and metastasis staging system and could benefit clinicians in treatment options and cancer control.

Can a nomogram predict apical prostate cancer pathology upgrade from fusion biopsy to final pathology? A multicenter study.

BACKGROUND: This study evaluates the efficacy of a nomogram for predicting the pathology upgrade of apical prostate cancer (PCa). METHODS: A total of 754 eligible patients were diagnosed with apical PCa through combined systematic and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-targeted prostate biopsy followed by radical prostatectomy (RP) were retrospectively identified from two hospitals (training: 754, internal validation: 182, internal-external validation: 148). A nomogram for the identification of apical tumors in high-risk pathology upgrades through comparing the results of biopsy and RP was established incorporating statistically significant risk factors based on univariable and multivariable logistic regression. The nomogram's performance was assessed via the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration plots, and decision curve analysis (DCA). RESULTS: Univariable and multivariable analysis identified age, targeted biopsy, number of targeted cores, TNM stage, and the prostate imaging-reporting and data system score as significant predictors of apical tumor pathological progression. Our nomogram, based on these variables, demonstrated ROC curves for pathology upgrade with values of 0.883 (95% CI, 0.847-0.929), 0.865 (95% CI, 0.790-0.945), and 0.840 (95% CI, 0.742-0.904) for the training, internal validation and internal-external validation cohorts respectively. Calibration curves showed good consistency between the predicted and actual outcomes. The validation groups also showed great generalizability with the calibration curves. DCA results also demonstrated excellent performance for our nomogram with positive benefit across a threshold probability range of 0-0.9 for the training and internal validation group, and 0-0.6 for the internal-external validation group. CONCLUSION: The nomogram, integrating clinical, radiological, and pathological data, effectively predicts the risk of pathology upgrade in apical PCa tumors. It holds significant potential to guide clinicians in optimizing the surgical management of these patients.

Machine learning-based identification of a cell death-related signature associated with prognosis and immune infiltration in glioma.

Accumulating evidence suggests that a wide variety of cell deaths are deeply involved in cancer immunity. However, their roles in glioma have not been explored. We employed a logistic regression model with the shrinkage regularization operator (LASSO) Cox combined with seven machine learning algorithms to analyse the patterns of cell death (including cuproptosis, ferroptosis, pyroptosis, apoptosis and necrosis) in The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) cohort. The performance of the nomogram was assessed through the use of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and calibration curves. Cell-type identification was estimated by using the cell-type identification by estimating relative subsets of known RNA transcripts (CIBERSORT) and single sample gene set enrichment analysis methods. Hub genes associated with the prognostic model were screened through machine learning techniques. The expression pattern and clinical significance of MYD88 were investigated via immunohistochemistry (IHC). The cell death score represents an independent prognostic factor for poor outcomes in glioma patients and has a distinctly superior accuracy to that of 10 published signatures. The nomogram performed well in predicting outcomes according to time-dependent ROC and calibration plots. In addition, a high-risk score was significantly related to high expression of immune checkpoint molecules and dense infiltration of protumor cells, these findings were associated with a cell death-based prognostic model. Upregulated MYD88 expression was associated with malignant phenotypes and undesirable prognoses according to the IHC. Furthermore, high MYD88 expression was associated with poor clinical outcomes and was positively related to CD163, PD-L1 and vimentin expression in the in-horse cohort. The cell death score provides a precise stratification and immune status for glioma. MYD88 was found to be an outstanding representative that might play an important role in glioma.

Identification of a metabolism-linked genomic signature for prognosis and immunotherapeutic efficiency in metastatic skin cutaneous melanoma.

Metastatic skin cutaneous melanoma (MSCM) is the most rapidly progressing/invasive skin-based malignancy, with median survival rates of about 12 months. It appears that metabolic disorders accelerate disease progression. However, correlations between metabolism-linked genes (MRGs) and prognosis in MSCM are unclear, and potential mechanisms explaining the correlation are unknown. The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) was utilized as a training set to develop a genomic signature based on the differentially expressed MRGs (DE-MRGs) between primary skin cutaneous melanoma (PSCM) and MSCM. The Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) was utilized as a validation set to verify the effectiveness of genomic signature. In addition, a nomogram was established to predict overall survival based on genomic signature and other clinic-based characteristics. Moreover, this study investigated the correlations between genomic signature and tumor micro-environment (TME). This study established a genomic signature consisting of 3 genes (CD38, DHRS3, and TYRP1) and classified MSCM patients into low and high-risk cohorts based on the median risk scores of MSCM cases. It was discovered that cases in the high-risk cohort had significantly lower survival than cases in the low-risk cohort across all sets. Furthermore, a nomogram containing this genomic signature and clinic-based parameters was developed and demonstrated high efficiency in predicting MSCM case survival times. Interestingly, Gene Set Variation Analysis results indicated that the genomic signature was involved in immune-related physiological processes. In addition, this study discovered that risk scoring was negatively correlated with immune-based cellular infiltrations in the TME and critical immune-based checkpoint expression profiles, indicating that favorable prognosis may be influenced in part by immunologically protective micro-environments. A novel 3-genomic signature was found to be reliable for predicting MSCM outcomes and may facilitate personalized immunotherapy.

Prediction of additional hospital days in patients undergoing cervical spine surgery with machine learning methods.

BACKGROUND: Machine learning (ML), a subset of artificial intelligence (AI), uses algorithms to analyze data and predict outcomes without extensive human intervention. In healthcare, ML is gaining attention for enhancing patient outcomes. This study focuses on predicting additional hospital days (AHD) for patients with cervical spondylosis (CS), a condition affecting the cervical spine. The research aims to develop an ML-based nomogram model analyzing clinical and demographic factors to estimate hospital length of stay (LOS). Accurate AHD predictions enable efficient resource allocation, improved patient care, and potential cost reduction in healthcare. METHODS: The study selected CS patients undergoing cervical spine surgery and investigated their medical data. A total of 945 patients were recruited, with 570 males and 375 females. The mean number of LOS calculated for the total sample was 8.64 ± 3.7 days. A LOS equal to or <8.64 days was categorized as the AHD-negative group (n = 539), and a LOS > 8.64 days comprised the AHD-positive group (n = 406). The collected data was randomly divided into training and validation cohorts using a 7:3 ratio. The parameters included their general conditions, chronic diseases, preoperative clinical scores, and preoperative radiographic data including ossification of the anterior longitudinal ligament (OALL), ossification of the posterior longitudinal ligament (OPLL), cervical instability and magnetic resonance imaging T2-weighted imaging high signal (MRI T2WIHS), operative indicators and complications. ML-based models like Lasso regression, random forest (RF), and support vector machine (SVM) recursive feature elimination (SVM-RFE) were developed for predicting AHD-related risk factors. The intersections of the variables screened by the aforementioned algorithms were utilized to construct a nomogram model for predicting AHD in patients. The area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and C-index were used to evaluate the performance of the nomogram. Calibration curve and decision curve analysis (DCA) were performed to test the calibration performance and clinical utility. RESULTS: For these participants, 25 statistically significant parameters were identified as risk factors for AHD. Among these, nine factors were obtained as the intersection factors of these three ML algorithms and were used to develop a nomogram model. These factors were gender, age, body mass index (BMI), American Spinal Injury Association (ASIA) scores, magnetic resonance imaging T2-weighted imaging high signal (MRI T2WIHS), operated segment, intraoperative bleeding volume, the volume of drainage, and diabetes. After model validation, the AUC was 0.753 in the training cohort and 0.777 in the validation cohort. The calibration curve exhibited a satisfactory agreement between the nomogram predictions and actual probabilities. The C-index was 0.788 (95% confidence interval: 0.73214-0.84386). On the decision curve analysis (DCA), the threshold probability of the nomogram ranged from 1 to 99% (training cohort) and 1 to 75% (validation cohort). CONCLUSION: We successfully developed an ML model for predicting AHD in patients undergoing cervical spine surgery, showcasing its potential to support clinicians in AHD identification and enhance perioperative treatment strategies.

Factors Associated with Extended Hospital Stay and its Impact on Subsequent Short-term Readmission with Tuberculosis Patients.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to explore the factors associated with extended length of stay (LOSE) for patients with tuberculosis (TB) in China, and construct a nomogram to predict it. In addition, the impact of extended hospital stay on short-term readmission after discharge was assessed. METHODS: A retrospective observational study was conducted at Changsha Central Hospital, from January 2018 to December 2020. Patients (≥18 years who were first admitted to hospital for TB treatment) with non-multidrug-resistant TB were selected using the World Health Organization's International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision (ICD-10-CM), and the hospital's electronic medical record system. RESULTS: A multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to evaluate the associations between TB and LOSE. The relationship between length of hospital stay and readmission within 31 days after discharge was assessed using a univariate Cox proportional risk model. A total of 14259 patients were included in this study (13629 patients in the development group and 630 in the validation group). The factors associated with extended hospital stays were age, smear positivity, extrapulmonary involvement, surgery, transfer from other medical structures, smoking, chronic liver disease, and drug-induced hepatitis. There was no statistical significance in the 31-day readmission rate of TB between the LOSE and length of stay≤14 days groups (hazards ratio: 0.92, 95% CI: 0.80-1.06, P=0.229). CONCLUSION: LOSE with TB was influenced by several patient-level factors, which were combined to construct a nomograph. The established nomograph can help hospital administrator and clinicians to identify patients with TB requiring extended hospital stays, and more efficiently plan for treatment programs and resource needs.

Establishment of a circRNA-regulated E3 ubiquitin ligase signature and nomogram to predict immunotherapeutic efficacy and prognosis in hepatocellular carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a common type of malignant tumor where the prognosis is dismal. Circular RNA (CircRNA) is a novel RNA that regulates downstream gene transcription and translation to influence the progression of HCC. However, the regulatory relationship that exists between E3 ligases, which is a class of post-translational modifying proteins, and circRNA remains unclear. METHODS: Based on the E3 ubiquitin ligase in the competitive endogenous RNA (ceRNA) network, a circRNA-regulated E3 ubiquitin ligase signature (CRE3UL) was developed. A CRE3UL signature was created using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso) and Cox regression analysis and merged it with clinicopathologic characteristics to generate a nomogram for prognosis prediction. The pRRophetic algorithm was utilized and immunological checkpoints were analyzed to compare the responses of patients in the high-risk group (HRG) and low-risk group (LRG) to targeted therapy and immunotherapy. Finally, experimental research will further elucidate the relationship between E3 ubiquitin ligase signature and HCC. RESULTS: HRG patients were found to have a worse prognosis than LRG patients. Furthermore, significant variations in prognosis were observed among different subgroups based on various clinical characteristics. The CRE3UL signature was identified as being an independent prognostic indicator. The nomogram that combined clinical characteristics and the CRE3UL signature was found to accurately predict the prognosis of HCC patients and demonstrated greater clinical utility than the current TNM staging approach. According to anticancer medication sensitivity predictions, the tumors of HRG patients were more responsive to gefitinib and nilotinib. From immune-checkpoint markers analysis, immunotherapy was identified as being more probable to assist those in the HRG. CONCLUSIONS: We found a significant correlation between the CRE3UL signature and the tumor microenvironment, enabling precise prognosis prediction for HCC patients. Additionally, a nomogram was developed that performs well in predicting the overall survival (OS) of HCC patients. This provides valuable guidance for clinicians in devising specific personalized treatment strategies.

Development and Validation of a Nomogram for Predicting Survival Based on Ferritin and Transferrin Ratio in Breast Cancer Patients.

BACKGROUND: Our objective is to develop a predictive model utilizing the ferritin and transferrin ratio (FTR) and clinical factors to forecast overall survival (OS) in breast cancer (BC) patients. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective analysis of clinical data from 2858 BC patients diagnosed between 2013 and 2021. Subsequently, the cohort of 2858 BC patients underwent random assignment into distinct subsets: a training cohort comprising 2002 patients and a validation cohort comprising 856 patients, maintaining a proportional ratio of 7:3. Employing multivariable Cox regression analysis within the training cohort, we derived a prognostic nomogram. The predictive performance was assessed using calibration curves, C-index, and decision curve analysis. RESULTS: The final prognostic model included the TNM stage, subtype, hemoglobin levels, and the ferritin-transferrin ratio. The nomogram achieved a C-index of .794 (95% CI: .777-.810). The nomogram demonstrated superior predictive accuracy for OS at 3, 5, and 7 years for BC, with area under the time-dependent curves of .812, .782, and .773, respectively. These values notably outperformed those of the conventional TNM stage. Decision curve analysis reaffirmed the greater net benefit of our nomogram compared to the TNM stage. These findings were subsequently validated in the independent validation cohort. CONCLUSION: The FTR-based prognostic model may predict a patient's OS better than the TNM stage in a clinical setting. The nomogram can provide an early, affordable, and reliable tool for survival prediction, as well as aid clinicians in treatment option-making and prognosis evaluation. However, further multi-center prospective trials are required to confirm the reliability of the existing nomogram.

BackgroundOur objective is to develop a predictive model utilizing the ferritin and transferrin ratio (FTR) and clinical factors to forecast overall survival (OS) in breast cancer (BC) patients.MethodsWe conducted a retrospective analysis of clinical data from 2858 BC patients diagnosed between 2013 and 2021. Subsequently, the cohort of 2858 BC patients underwent random assignment into distinct subsets: a training cohort comprising 2002 patients and a validation cohort comprising 856 patients, maintaining a proportional ratio of 7:3. Employing multivariable Cox regression analysis within the training cohort, we derived a prognostic nomogram. The predictive performance was assessed using calibration curves, C-index, and decision curve analysis.ResultsThe final prognostic model included the TNM stage, subtype, hemoglobin levels, and the ferritin-transferrin ratio. The nomogram achieved a C-index of .794 (95% CI: .777-.810). The nomogram demonstrated superior predictive accuracy for OS at 3, 5, and 7 years for BC, with area under the time-dependent curves of .812, .782, and .773, respectively. These values notably outperformed those of the conventional TNM stage. Decision curve analysis reaffirmed the greater net benefit of our nomogram compared to the TNM stage. These findings were subsequently validated in the independent validation cohort.ConclusionThe FTR-based prognostic model may predict a patient's OS better than the TNM stage in a clinical setting. The nomogram can provide an early, affordable, and reliable tool for survival prediction, as well as aid clinicians in treatment option-making and prognosis evaluation. However, further multi-center prospective trials are required to confirm the reliability of the existing nomogram.

Radiation pneumonitis prediction with dual-radiomics for esophageal cancer underwent radiotherapy.

BACKGROUND: To integrate radiomics and dosiomics features from multiple regions in the radiation pneumonia (RP grade ≥ 2) prediction for esophageal cancer (EC) patients underwent radiotherapy (RT). METHODS: Total of 143 EC patients in the authors' hospital (training and internal validation: 70%:30%) and 32 EC patients from another hospital (external validation) underwent RT from 2015 to 2022 were retrospectively reviewed and analyzed. Patients were dichotomized as positive (RP+) or negative (RP-) according to CTCAE V5.0. Models with radiomics and dosiomics features extracted from single region of interest (ROI), multiple ROIs and combined models were constructed and evaluated. A nomogram integrating radiomics score (Rad_score), dosiomics score (Dos_score), clinical factors, dose-volume histogram (DVH) factors, and mean lung dose (MLD) was also constructed and validated. RESULTS: Models with Rad_score_Lung&Overlap and Dos_score_Lung&Overlap achieved a better area under curve (AUC) of 0.818 and 0.844 in the external validation in comparison with radiomics and dosiomics models with features extracted from single ROI. Combining four radiomics and dosiomics models using support vector machine (SVM) improved the AUC to 0.854 in the external validation. Nomogram integrating Rad_score, and Dos_score with clinical factors, DVH factors, and MLD further improved the RP prediction AUC to 0.937 and 0.912 in the internal and external validation, respectively. CONCLUSION: CT-based RP prediction model integrating radiomics and dosiomics features from multiple ROIs outperformed those with features from a single ROI with increased reliability for EC patients who underwent RT.

Diagnostic performance of Node Reporting and Data System (Node-RADS) for assessing mesorectal lymph node in rectal cancer by CT.

BACKGROUND: To compare the diagnostic performance of the Node-RADS scoring system and lymph node (LN) size in preoperative LN assessment for rectal cancer (RC), and to investigate whether the selection of size as the primary criterion whereas morphology as the secondary criterion for LNs can be considered the preferred method for clinical assessment. METHODS: Preoperative CT data of 146 RC patients treated with radical resection surgery were retrospectively analyzed. The Node-RADS score and short-axis diameter of size-prioritized LNs and the morphology-prioritized LNs were obtained. The correlations of Node-RADS score to the pN stage, LNM number and lymph node ratio (LNR) were investigated. The performances on assessing pathological lymph node metastasis were compared between Node-RADS score and short-axis diameter. A nomogram combined the Node-RADS score and clinical features was also evaluated. RESULTS: Node-RADS score showed significant correlation with pN stage, LNM number and LNR (Node-RADS of size-prioritized LN: r = 0.600, 0.592, and 0.606; Node-RADS of morphology-prioritized LN: r = 0.547, 0.538, and 0.527; Node-RADSmax: r = 0.612, 0.604, and 0.610; all p < 0.001). For size-prioritized LN, Node-RADS achieved an AUC of 0.826, significantly superior to short-axis diameter (0.826 vs. 0.743, p = 0.009). For morphology-prioritized LN, Node-RADS exhibited an AUC of 0.758, slightly better than short-axis diameter (0.758 vs. 0.718, p = 0.098). The Node-RADS score of size-prioritized LN was significantly better than that of morphology-prioritized LN (0.826 vs. 0.758, p = 0.038). The nomogram achieved the best diagnostic performance (AUC = 0.861) than all the other assessment methods (p < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: The Node-RADS scoring system outperforms the short-axis diameter in predicting lymph node metastasis in RC. Size-prioritized LN demonstrates superior predictive efficacy compared to morphology-prioritized LN. The nomogram combined the Node-RADS score of size-prioritized LN with clinical features exhibits the best diagnostic performance. Moreover, a clear relationship was demonstrated between the Node-RADS score and the quantity-dependent pathological characteristics of LNM.